Moderate Republicans and Midterm Election Outlook

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Good Bad billionaire Listen wherever you get your BBC podcasts Hello, it's Anthony, and you're about to hear Americast. And we're delighted to have you with us. And if you enjoy what youar, please do consider subscribing to the podcast. That way you'll never miss an episode. Now. On with today We've been answering your questions live on Five Live with Matt Chawley Quions ranging from the two hundred fiftieth anniversary celebrations For America, the celebration is being put on in Washington, DC. What on earth is happening with them? Why are some acts pulling out? Are they even going to go ahead? Plus travel to America. Who is welcome? who's going, who's not going? and are the US authorities actually checking the social media history of visitors as it was at one stage rumoured that they were And in the Democrats fight to regain the Senate, they need to take the state of Maine among other places. So why is Graham Platner, their oyster fisherman candidate in such trouble Welcome to America Answers withith Marianna with Sarah, with Matt Awley and with me Justin Webb Ameraast from BBC News. You hear that J? I When I hear that sound, it reminds me of money. We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it. This is a big cover up, and this administration is engaged in it. This guy has Trump arrangement syndrome. For you, turn the volume up We've got Alan on the line, Hello, Alan. I'd like to know what on earth is going on in Trump Lland. The two hundred fiftieth birthday celebrations and all the acts Bar Milly Vanilli and Vanilla Iice have pulled out less than twenty four hours after they've been announced that they were going to go Then the UFC stadium, it's not finished yet. It's only got two weeks to go and big names are pulling out of that as well. And apparently somer people are giving away free tickets to the military as long as they're not fat What do you think Wow. Well, there's a lot to unpick that. First of all, Mariana, do you want to tell us about Millie Vanilly as the the token young person? Millie Vanilly. Yeah. I think just in. Are you across Millie Vanilly? I'm actually not that across M Vanilla Iice. Millie Vanilly, right let me get us today. mister Iice or possibly Miss Iice anyyway, Vanilla, mister mister mister has said that he is going to he would happily still do it So he's very much in the presidential gooers, but they end rather blot his copybook by saying I would also do it for Vladimir Putin or go to Iran U So the split is now between those artists who will go anywhere for anyone, if the money iss right. and those who said. I mean, in all series the ones that they said, didn't they, Sarah, that the ones that have pulled out they're not pulled out It' suddenly because of Donald Trump. They say they pulled out because it's just political. and they weren't expecting it to be political. And that possibly suggests a certain naivety on their part Yeah, and it's the same thing, isn't it? Oh turn it turns out to be a political event, but it's got nothing to do with Donald Trump. The two aren't exactly the same thing. But I think what did happen was, yeah, they thought that maybe it was going to be just a nationwide celebration of the two hundred and fiftieth birthday. and then it turned out it was more tied into all of these Trump themed celebrations, shall we say, because it is it has become a celebration of Donald Trump possibly at least as much, if not more than the two hundred fiftieth birthday. But Alan, it it's worth everything you say is absolutely true And it's worse than that. There are other bits of Washington, DC, which are not finished. There's a park right in front of the White House, Just don'll be very familiar with it, Lafayette Park, where we often stand with our cameras and do live shots into the TV news. It was all ripped up to be completely renovated and they're going to get the fountains working again. It's still a total building site, and it was meant to be finished by now The reflecting pool is not finished. They're painting it this dark blue American flag blue, Donald Trump calls it. He wants it to look more like a swimming pool, but it's not nearly finished and they're having problems plugging the leaks there and things. So at the moment, all of the kind of ceremonial center of DC the mall looks like a bit of a building site. You've got that huge genuine building site, of course, where they knocked down the East wing and they're still trying to build Donaldrump's controversial Bom And then towering above the White House, and it's just mind blowing when you see it,'s this UFC stadium thing that they have built on the south lawn. It's taller than the White House itself. So when you stand on the north side, you can see it reaching above the building for this UFC fight, which is on Donald Trump's birthday, which also just happens to be flag dayay And Alan, you're right, you can't buy tickets for it The military are being offered them for free, as long as they meet height to waist ratios, thati. e, that they look slim and telegenic Your ticket is free, you've got to pay your own accommodation to Washington, you've got to pay your own travel, all of that kind of thing. It's not clear that they're going to be able to fill this stadium. But Donald Trump obviously has a vision of all of these kind of young, virile, good looking military officers behind him as he enjoys this fight. And the whole thing is shaping up to be just an amazing par of everything that is Trump and Trump ism. And so a lot of people are rather appalled, of course that this is the manner in which the nation's founding is being celebrated, but there are other people who are sitting back and rather reveling in what we think might just turn into a hilarious force actually. Donald Trump has responded on truth social He has written, We should have a giant and then Capital letters, makeake America great again, Rally for two hundred fifty was the two hundred fiftty year anniversary. He goes on to say inststead of having overpriced singers who nobody wants to hear whose music is boring and yet who do nothing but complain cancel it. And he's also said to me that he is he would do it himself He would sing He is willing like a dark. If they won't cancel it, he's willing to take part himself because he said He's more popular than Elvis was Prime Elvis of course is now dead even I know that. He thinks he looks like Elvis as well. He sometimes tweets me he has fvis he's convinced that he looks like. He's not shy of an Elvis me. I mean, the other thing I love about all these celebrations is that America iss a very local place, as you maybe know if you know it well. and I can remember july the fourth celebrations with my kids. We never watched any of the kind of big fireworks and stuff. You go to the your local place and there'd be a parade and it's all very, very gentle and pleasant and people go out and clap and clap the kids and all the rest of it. And I think that will happen around America. I think in a way, and it's fun to talk about this I don't think it matter to the most But I suppose this is where the The presresident of head of State. slightly muddy st things. So in where the UK might have had something to mark the Queen's diamond Jubilee, then that is very much a non political event and stars of stage and screen and singers and dance, whatever, they all turn out for it because it's for the quQueen and it's a sort of national event. It's not saying to I don't know, comedians and singers, wouldd like to come and sing at Ker Starmer's birthday event You know, which then becomes a which he will give a long speech and talk about himself and be rude to me. So That distinction is And so Donald Trump as the head of state would be involved, but it's become more political. And that then takes you, doesn't it, Sar, to the money? Because again, you know, whose face do you put on the money? there is a law, I think I'm right saying there's a law, isn't it? that says you can't have a living person's face on American money but they're still trying, aren't they behind the scenes or in fact, in front of the scenes to get Donald Trump's face onto those is it two hundred fifty dollars. Yeah for the two fifth anniversary? Yeah, so they want to have they want a two hundred fifty dollars bill, which doesn't exist at the moment, that would be a special commemoration year one with his face on it. There's already going to be gold coins, which again are counts getting in under what they claim is this exception that it's ceremonial for this particular semi quinentennial, as I've learned to call it.. So he'll have his face on those. And his signature is going to appear on the regular bills as well. So not his face because as you say, there is a law against that, but he's managing to get his very distinctive sharpie signature on there. And don't forget, you can get a special passport if you apply for a new one this year that will also have his portrait inside. So and you know his face is on huge big bners all over Washington as well outside some of the government There is there really is absolutely no escape at the moment from images of Donald Trump as he's gearing up to celebrate the anniversary. And of course, the anniversary is the excuse he's using to put up the big ark to Trump as well, the huge two hundred fifty foot structure near the Lincoln memorial that he wants to put up that will dwarf Lincoln and Jefferson's memorials and just be basically a great big memorial to Trump But he says it's for the two hundred fiftieth anniversary Bind me Allan. What a brilliant question and you've unlocked quite a lot of things for us to discuss. Great question. Thank you for that, Alan. We'll actually continue with a WhatsApp from Dr. Hugh Delarjie in Leicestershire. Wh asks which of the two Trump or Netanyahu is driving forward policy? strategic and tactical in their war on Iran Jjusted. Yeah, a really interesting one. I think increasingly U Trump fs. He has to regain control over everything. But as much as he feels it, as we can see from what's happening in Lebanon at the moment He's not able to impose his will on people. And I think that is going to frustrate him enormously. And I think you know obviously Israel has its own reasons for attacking Hezbollah at the moment. Obviously feels possibly that time is running out, that they are going to have to pull back eventually because it's going to Lebanon is going to be part of the overall peace deal or at least the overall longer term ccessation of hostilities if that actually is agreed. But in the meantime, they're really going hell for leather against Hezbollah and theign Donald Trump seems to be able to do to stop that. So at the moment, I think the honest answer is that it's a balance both are trying to get to a place that is of maximum benefit to them before the thing ends And that does mean that Netanyahu and there's also elections coming up in Israel and it's complicated and Israeli politics and all the rest of it. Netanyahu is not yet's not under Trump's thumb to the extent I think that Donald Trump hoped he would And I suppose that goeswhere to explain why it's been a deal has been imminent. It's going to be today. Oh no, not today This morning, Donald Trump post on Truth Social Iran really wants to make a deal. It'll be a good one for the U.S. and those that are with us, but don't the Democrats and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans understand it is much tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate when political hacks keep negatively chirping. at levels never seen before Over and even the chirping is unpreceded. overver and over again that I should move faster or move slower or go to war or not go to war or whatever. just sit back and relax. It would all work out well in the end. Always does, President DJT In fact, we can hear, this is a clip from the cabinet meeting last week where President Trump said he wouldn't be rushed into a deal with Iran. They thought they were going to outweight me, you know, We'll outweight him. He's got the mid tterms. I don't care about the mid tms So should he care about the midtermss Yeah, and he does care about the midterms. for several reasons. He doesn't want a bloodbath of Republicans and suddenly it looking as though the country has turned against him and his party. And He particularly cares about the midterms because if the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives, they'll start impeachment proceedings against him. It would take a huge majority in the Senate for him to actually be convicted and thrown out of office, but it's not impossible. and it will tie him up. It will be a lot of time and resources will be involved in fighting the impeachment. Yes, of course, he cares about the midterms. The week before, he said he didn't care about Americans' finances, about the fact that the price of petrol, food and everything else had gone through the roof as a result of this war it's him trying to signal to Iran that they don't have anything over him, that he's not feeling the heat politically from what's happened as a result of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked and that they needn't think that he's in a hurry to make a deal. He's just trying to preserve his negotiating hand. his cards. you know he's always talking about who's got all the cards. He's worried that the Iranians think they've got a card because of his concern about prices and about the midtermss But he's not kidding anyone. Of course he cares about both of these things. And that that's something Benjamin Netanyahu who does not need to worry about here. I don't think there's much doubt about the fact that it was Netanyahu who who talked Trump into going into this conflict in the first place and persuaded him that it would be quick and easy and that there was no way the Iranians would be able to blockade the Strait of Hormuz The Americans could take out all of their military capacity quickly enough before they were able to do that. That of course, has proved to be very, very wrong. So Donald Trump is listening to him less now, but also it is the idea that he was led by the nose into a foreign conflict by Israel that has set a lot of his supporters against this. So there's the fact that he promised no more foreign wars And they're unhappy that he broke that promise. But the fact that he was talked into it by the Israeli Prime Minister is another reason why a whole MAGa section is very, very opposed to this. So he needs to look as though he's distancing himself from Netanyah who know And in terms of the midterms, what are your imaginary friends seeing and hearing? imaginary friends? Well, I would say that kind of on we've spoken about this a few times, but my imaginary friends are obviously my undercover voters. for a glorious momentie ex ex Fictional characters and social media profiles across all of them. Maybe thiss deeper to the series by now know but they're not called imaginary friends They're called undercoverver I think what's been really interesting, particularly from my pro MGAa account is seeing how you know, people like Tucker Carlson sort of turning on Donald Trump a bit and some of those quite influential social media profiles, that's made a bit of a difference over Israel Yeah that has been cutting through a little bit. exxactly as Sarah was saying Yeah. I think that has been sort of the one thing I've noticed You know the Democrats have spit about it And that was the case during the last election, etcetera. and may well have been material to some extent in them losing it, losing some of their own supporters. But on the Republican side, This is just an amazing dramatic fallout now that's happening with kind of real venom on both sides. And suddenly Israel and the whole business of Netanyahu, going back to that question, is live I think we've got Peter from Belfast on on Hello Peter. Hi, host Thankks. Whaty very good. What is your question for the amount casers First of all, brilliant program is always insightful, very enjoyable. fantastic. Last time I was in America, that, thans. You know what comes across is you have genuine affection for America, as do I as do a lot of people. and it comes across really strongly. That's why it's insightful. But last time I was that true as well Re affection for it Yeah. The last time I was there was summer of twenty twenty four. We did a road trip through Nevada, Arizona, California. And we steed for Th Nights Center Ranch in Arizona, hosted by the brilliant cowboy Dave. Cowboy Dave ever listened, shout out to you. You were fantastic. He about Aaton He had or nine of us around the campfire singing and he was telling stories and facilitating conversations. So All of the otherer nine of us were European. And I just wondered what effect or impact the last eighteen months has had on tourism to the states especially from Europe and whether cowboy Dave may be sitting around the campfire this summer all in his lonesome So that was interesting this. What was your reading of tourism to the US The official figures are down. There are fewer people are coming to visit, particularly from Europe, but from all around the world. You still hear European voices and languages being spoken, particularly in Washington, DC because that's somewhere where people visiting the the US. would come to, but it's noticeably less and some businesses are talking about that as well I mean, just anecdotally from people who've talked to me about why they do or don't want to come. someome of it is is quite straightforwardly political. They say we don't want to go there while Donald Trump's president As though turning up here would be some kind of affirmation of his presidency. you agree with him somehow if you come and spend money in this country. Whereas of course, as we know, the country is very sharply divided and at least half the people who are here all of the time strongly, strongly oppose Donald Trump. But there was also this story that was put out end of last year, I think. the White House started talking about wanting to check people's social media history if they applied for a visa waiver. So if you're coming from the UK, you don't travel completely visa free, you have to apply for this thing called an ESTA cost a few quid, you put in some of your biographical details and you get issued for a year or two years at a time or something And it was covered in all the newspapers and news bulletins that they were potentially going to be asking about your social media history, looking to see if you'd ever said anything bad about Donald Trump or MAGA, presumably. And the implication was they might not issue you with this visa waiver if you had been very critical. Now that has not come into force. because it was so heavily reported that they were considering doing it, huge number of people think Yeah They think I'm not dont I don't want to go through that process. so I wouldn't apply the visa so I'll just go on holiday somewhere else And it's a shame. I mean, America will survive without them, but it's a shame because a trip through Arizona, Nevada and California sounds like one of the best vacations you could ever go on Yeah. That sounds I think we should all go on a road trip with Peter. They've got a new They've got a new person in London too who's trying to drum up tourism because he was on the today program this morning and he was, I have to say slightly defensive when the I wasn't me interviewing him When the interviewer said know, is Donald Trump affecting these? He just we literally blanked the question and had a script for he rather keptive OkayK, we've just finished on fiveive Live with Matt Charlie, but Justin and I are still here. We should do a quick round upp, Justin of what's happening in some of the primary elections as we gear towards those midterm elections that we were just talking about. And in Maine, up in the Northeast, very, very interesting race, probably one of the Democrats' best chances of taking a seat in the Senate. They need four altogether to get a Senate majority So up in Maine, we've got the long long served Republican Senator Susan Collins. and she's really interesting because she frequently doesn't vote with Donald Trump. She's often been very independent through other presidencies and administrations as well. She's sort of held her own line and is quite moderate. but she is being challenged by the Democrat Graham Platner, working class, oyster fisherman Very progressive, some people think too left wing, too radical to try and take the state. And he's in a bit of hot water now. Yeah, to put it mildly. So it's not just that he's progressive, is it? whichich he is in terms of policy positions. He's also a bit of a wild card in so many other ways. and we did this entire episode, didn't we on the fight that he was then having to win the primary, which he has essentially won And he seems to his supporters to be just refreshingly, magically not out of the political box because as well as being working class, he is genuinely someone who has fought abroad for America. He has done multiple tours of duty. He's a rough, tough guy. He has a tattoo which has Nazi insignia that he eventually actually had covered up But he's kind of he's he's got all sorts of aspects to him that Ina political candidate in the pre Trump world would have absolutely meant that he would not have even got to the starting gun. But not only has he got to the starting gun, but he is actually, I think it is fair to say, still the favourite to beat Susan Collins. but oh my goodness, Sarah The stuff that he is now being faced with at least the allegations and I think quite a lot of it seems to be pretty true because he is a pretty rough diamond that is just Giving a queasy feeling, it is fair to say, isn't it to a lot of Democrats of o my goodness, have we got the right guy Yess pretty explicit messages of a sexual nature, shall we say, att least six women he was essentially sexing with whilst he was married. And basically his wife is confirmed that this is true in essence because she says that she doesn't want a perfect marriage. notot all marriages are. She wants her marriage the one where she is married to Graham Plner. So she seems to be standing by him I find it really shameful that there's a group of Media outlets and people who are willing to spread Gossip U inststead of talking about real issues that Graham is is running on like Healthcare and education and child carere And So that on top of controversial policy platforms and some other things he'd said in the past as well. there were some social media messages talking about rape, not sounding entirely supportive of victims, talking about women who should not get so drunk that they wind up having sex with someone they don't mean to. And he sounding dismissive of sexual assault challenges being brought by women serving in the military. Yeah, will people say, okay, he's a real authentic candidate who's made mistakes just like I have and go for him anyway, but it's going to make the Democrats job more difficult. It's worth reflecting, I think though, I was just saying Susan Collins, the sitting Republican senator in Maine, is a really interesting individualistic character who is probably threatened at the very least by the Democrats. The other place the Democrats are optimistic of picking up a seat is in Alaska And that's where Lisa Mkowski is the sitting Republican senator and has been for years and years. And I think they are two of the most interesting people in the Senate, these women who are often pictured together, they appear to be good friends. they work together quite a lot. on Voting differently from their party, entirely around their conscience and political judgment. And it's a shame to lose people like that from the Senate who who don't just take the party whip, don't just do what the party leaders say, but are prepared to stand up to the leadership quite often and make counter arguments. You know, American politics is meant to be more about that, more like that than the British parliamentary system is. But you know, Donald Trump has cowed most of them into agreeing with him other than these two women who often speak out. Yeah. And that of course, just finishing on Susan Collins That is one of the raps that moderate Republicans now have against their Democrat colleagues, those Republicans who are sticking with the Republican Party and sticking with her and saying, whyy do you want to replace this essentially moderate middle of the road, thoughtful character with all her weight of experience? Why do you want to replace her with Graham Platinner with all the baggage that he brings's going to be a fascinating race. On a fascinating occasion in American politics, which is a midterm that is really kind of