National Senate Control and Future Implications

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And as ever, we're asking you to decide whether they're good, bad or just another billionaire That's good bad billionaire from the BBC World Service. Listen now wherever you get your BBC podcasts We have just witnessed one of the fiercest and the most expensive primary races in US. state history. The battle to decide who's going to be Texas's Republican candidate for Senator Donald Trump had turned his back on the long serving senator from Texas and backed a really controversial outsider instead. That sets up a midterm election that could actually be competitive for the Democrats Donald Trump just put Texas in play. Welcome to Americast Ameraast from BBC News. You hear that?. I think When I hear that sound, it reminds me of money. We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it. This is a big cover up, and this administration is engaged in it. This guy has Trump arrangement syndrome. I have for you, turn the volume up. Hello, it's Sarah in the BBC's Bureau in Washington. And it's Anthony right here with Sarah in Washington DC. Just you and me, Anthony, running the show from Washington inststead of the others insist on wrongly calling the worldorldwide headquarters of Americast. But it's Texas. We're going to be focusing on the great state of Texas, as they say, and one of your favorites. Whatne of the biggest, one of the best, the big enchilada, as Richard Dixon once called And we're talking about it because it could be a key battleground in November's midterm elections in part because of what happened there in the Republican Senate primary race on Tuesday night. Yeah, so we saw the sitting senator who's been there for twenty three years, John Cornan defeated. He will not be running for the Republicans in November. Instead it will be the A attorney General Ken Paxton who controversial figure, shall we say, a lot of people say he's less likely to win. mayaybe this puts the state of Texas in play come November. But Donald Trump backed Ken Paxton and he thanked him for that in his victory speech on Tuesday night. And then there's one person who I think you might know President Donald J. Trump When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn't listen Instead, he gave his complete and total endorsement President Trump is the leader of our party and his endorsement in this power is the most powerful force in politics. So he's thanking Donald Trump there for his endorsement and obviously thinks that it made a difference Why did Trump back him and not Johnorn I mean, we've seen him go after Republicans in Congress who he thinks were disloyal to him or voted against him, but John Carornan hadn't done any of that. He'd been pretty good to Donald Trump. Pretty good. Yeah, he campaigned on his ties to Donald Trump. His campaign website has pictures of him and Donald Trump. He tried to name a state highway after Donald Trump did legislation a couple of weeks ago. He really wanted Donald Trump's endorsement And for a time, it looked like he might actually get it. But what Trump focused on, I guess was that Cornyin wasn't quite as enthusiastic in supporting Donald Trump's twenty twenty four reelection bid. Cornyin said that Trump had been passed by and that he didn't realize that in order to win elections, he has to reach out to more than just So Corn ultimately came around and endorsed Donald Trump, but clearly the president has a long memory, at least when it comes to personal slightes. And Ken Paxton as well was running as a more kind of MAGa type candidate, but it's not asough Trump got behind him at the beginning. I mean, it was only a week ago that he finally picked which Republican he was going to give us endorsement to. Right Paxton was going to win this race. I think people who had been following this and understood Texas politics We're pretty confident that Cornan was going down even without Donald Trump's endorsement of Paxton. Th the reason was that Paxton ran a very Tumpian kind of campaign. He did run as more Trumpian than Cornan. He attacked Cornan as being a Washington insider, as too much of an establishment, too weak, too timid, too old All of the things that we've heard Donald Trump say when he's been campaigning for the past ten years. and it was effective. Corn for his part was attacking Paxtons's being corrupt and having too much baggage and being a weaker candidate in November's general election. but none of that seemed to make a difference. There were a lot of Texas Republican voters partarticularly in the runoff where it's a smaller electorate, a more conservative, a more right wing electorate. All of that made it much more likely that Paxon could win by saying he's the Trump one, even if Trump hadn't endorsseed him But you think that Trump got behind him because he was going to win and then he could knock it up as a victory rather than him really being heavily invested in who became the Republican candidate. Yeah, I definitely felt that way that Trump was following his base here. He needed to weigh in. He needed to find another another feather for his endorsement cap. I've read a lot of coverage saying that This is just another show of Donald Trump's endorsement power. And I think that on the size of Paxton's victory was reflected in Donald Trump's endorsse. I think Courton's people just stayed home in the runoff because they knew that the game was up I think wanted to be able to get out in front of this. and that's what he did. And then Donald Trump threw all this stuff about Cornam being disloyal. in honesty, that was overstating the case, I think. But what he's done as a result is possibly make Texas more competitive because as you mentioned, Ken Paxton comes with quite a lot of baggage, there's an attractive, young, exciting Democratic candidate that's going to be running against them. And so you've got significant amounts of the Republican Party a bit worried about this Republican Senator Tom Tillis is speaking his mind these days because he's retiring from the Senate, so he doesn't mind about getting on the wrong side of Donald Trump. And last night, after the result on CNN, he did not hold back in his criticism of Ken Paxton. And to call Paxton ethically challenged is to call Jeffrey Dahmer sufferating from an eating disorder This guy is an empty suit and will do us no service by being in the U.S. Congress. I hope the Texans realize how tough orn is how pro secondecond Amendment he is, how pro limited government he is, how pro America first he is. And when they go to the polls on Tuesday, I hope that they know that they've got a great American who deserves reelection and the other guy is going to be nothing but an anchor on our conference for as long as he's in the US. Senate You know, Cordon hammered Paxton with tens of millions of dollars in television advertising highlighting all of those doubts that people might have had about about Paxton. And in fact, the Republican Senate campaign committee. So not just Cornham, but this is the committee that handles electing Republicans in Senate contests across the country. They were running negative ads attacking Paxton for being ethically corrupt. And you hear it time and time again, all of these hits on him still won despite these doubts, he still was able to get a majority, a large majority of Republican voters to support him. Although I will also add that turnout in this runoff was down considerably compared to March where Cornan finished slightly ahead of Paxton. So it wasn't necessarily that a lot of people switched over to Paxton after Donald Trump endorsed him or because of the campaign over the past month and a half It was more that Cornates people stayed home. and that could be a reflection of they just gave up the ship because it was clear Pson was going to win and it was clear that Donald Trump had thrown his weight behind Paxson. So it was a lost cause. And that's a really important point to make about primaries because I mean they're better than opinion polls and there's actually people turning up and casting their votes. it's real ata for us to use to try and look at what's happening among the electorate. but it's a very self selecting bit of the electorate. It's not as though all of Texas or all of the potential Republican voters in Texas went out. It's the hardcore who go and vote in primaries, isn't it? It's the most passionately committed. and sometimes the most right wing or the most left wing the ones people who are more extreme in their political views are the ones who tend to come out in primaries. So that's why you sometimes get a more MAGA or a more progressive candidate with the Democrats getting selected there And talking of Democrats, there is a question specifically for you, Anthony, that has come in from Will in Leicestershire. And he asks, as you are Americast's resident Texan, which of course you are very proud Texan, he wants to ask you about your thoughts for the Senate race there. Do you think Texas might now elect a Democrat senator in November? And that would be a very big deal. I know you're bound to know off the top of your head. when was the last time There was a Democrat returned to the Senate from Texas. Lloyd Benson in nineteen eighty eight. It would be to answer this question A remarkable feat for Democrats to win this seat. Having covered Texas politics for decades, I've heard Texas Democrats talk about how Texas was going to become a swing state that is going to go blue or at least purple for decades. It seems like it's always just around the corner and then it never happens. Bet O'Rke ran against Ted Cruz in twenty eighteen And he came within a handful of percentage points, just a few hundred thousand votes from beating Ted Cruz. That is as close as any Democrat has come to winning a Senate seat in know most people most young people's lifetimes. And what he did was it was a Democratic wave election. He ran as a centrist. Cruz was somewhat controversial, had some people who didn't like him And it still came up short. Now We're also getting the same kind of perhaps series of events that need to happen for this to be a serious contest, which is Talerica running as a centrist. He's pro oil and gas. He is pro border security. He tries to fashion himself as someone who is in touch with Texas values, although we'll see how Republicans are attacking him in a bit an unpopular or at least controversial opponent who is not even an incumbent like Ted Cruz was. And it also is shaping up to be what could be a democratic wave election with an unpopular president in Donald Trump concerns about affordability. So if all of those things combine, that is why as you mentioned earlier, that this race has been moved by political report from likeikely Republican to leans Republican. This is going to be a race that Republicans are going to have to fight to win. and that that in itself is pretty remarkable And back to James Talaric. People are very excited about him. and I tell you what I've noticed when I've been talking to friends back home in Britain, his name comes up a lot. I mean this is somebody who is not holding office at the moment at all. but people keep asking me, who is he? Is he as good as everybody says? Is he going to be the Democratic nominee in twenty twenty eight? peopleople are asking me, which would be a bit of a stretch even ins this se. But I mean I think it's a sign of how much excitement there is behind him. He has raised tens of millions of dollars. so clearly he has been able to make an impression on the national stage. If you remember, there was that thing where he was on the Colbert show, the Stephen Colbert show, late night show. and some of his responses for his appearance was cut because It was a question of equal time and you have to give time to Republicans or another Democrat. and that kind of elevated his platform kind of the Streicend effect where you do something trying to keep people from finding out about someone and then everyone finds out about that thing. He's a former seminarian, so he is able to speak to evangelical conservatives, evangelical Christians in a way that a lot of Democrats may not be able to, as I mentioned, he does try to position himself as a centrist, although he also has some Some comments in the past that are more tilted towards liberal social policies, talking about transgender rights and talking about LBGTQ issues. And that, I think might end up coming back or certainly is going to be used by Republicans to attack him as too liberal for Texas. But at least for now, there are a lot of people on the national stage who feel like he is the perfect candidate to be able to win in a place like Texas And and he is, he's a pretty good stump speaker. He's pretty charismatic. He's pretty quick on his feet. It'll make an interesting contrast with him going up against Pakistan Yeah, he sounded pretty excited about the fact that he's going up against them Paxton. this was him after the results came in on Tuesday night. Something just happened in Texas the most corrupt politician in America just became the Republican nominee for the United States Senate. If we the people can come together to defeat the most corrupt politician in America, we can defeat this entire corrupt system We can start unrigging this economy. We can start raising our pay Cutting our taxes, lowering our costs We can finally Get ahead It's time to come together people versus Ken Paxton And he also made an explicit pitch on Tuesday to Cornin supporters saying that he didn't always agree with everything that Cornyin has said and done, but that they both believe in the value of public service. So he thinks he can win over some of these disaffected Republicans who may not like Pxton. And I know there are a lot of Cornyin supporters out there despise Paxton just the same way that there were a lot of Paxton supporters out there who really hated Cornin. So we'll see if the party can come together or if Talar Rico can advantage of those rifks. And the other interesting thing to listen to there in that clip was he started by talking about how Paxton is corrupt. But as we've seen, just saying a candidate is corrupt or has personal issues isn't enough to beat them We know though, what Kempax and the Republicans will use against Halarica, what their playbook iss going to be of their arguments against him. And one of the things they're most likely to say is I've heard him using a clip where he talks notot just about there being only two genders, he suggests there are six does And he even says that God is not male, God is not female, God is non Can you win anywhere in America, but most particularly in Texas if you say God is non binary? That sounds like, you know practically disqualifying, isn't it? Yeah, I mean I guess you could see his point, right that God is bigger than any one gender. I also think he may have said cisgender and the people just misheard him and said it S genders, but yes, I mean that is the that is the stuff that Republicans are going to target on him. They're going to say and point to these these past comments, particularly on social issues, issues of transgender rights that that there are a lot of that will animate a lot of conservative voters in Texas and get them out to the polls to vote against him And that was a playbook against Beta O'wark, Beta O'wk as the Republicans used to call him and the Republicans are calling Talar Rico Talafrico and Low T Talar Rico and all of these different nicknames because he's not he doesn't look like a kind of a macho guy necessarily. He's kind of looks mild mannered He's kind so Re really young. He looks young. So he's thirty seven, isn't he? He looks twenty seven. Yeah, look looks he looks younger than his age. So I mean that is they're going to hit him on the macho thing, which Donald Trump ran on in twenty twenty four and probably made headway into younger male voters, as we've talked about in the past Yeah D deffinitely Ken Paxton's going to do the same thing. In fact, Ken Paxton at his victory party on Tuesday night was already on the attack against Taler Rico as as we hear in this clip My opponent is the most extreme radical that Democrats have ever nominated He's even running a vegan campaign, whatever that is He goes by a few names that you may all have heard of. Some people know him as Tfu Talorico. Some people call him six gender Jimmy No, that vegan campaign that Paxton says he's running. This is because he has accused Aler Rico of being a vegan, which he absolutely refutes. In fact, he says that he's been eating barbecue, the famous Texas dish since before Ken Paxton's first indictment, which is quite a good lie. That's a stink. But yeah, I mean, is that the biggest insult you can level at somebody in Texas? I mean you know, we love our Red meat barbecue, our brisket and our ribs and all of that. So yeah, try to paint Talor Rico as weak as outside the mainstream as not Texan enough. I mean, if you look at the television campaigns in Texas, it's all about wearing cowboy boots and driving trucks. I mean, there is this Texas sense of machismo and identity that that is is kind of built into the ingrained in the spirit of the state. And actually wearing cowboy hats and stetsens as well in a non ironic way.ight know.. I think it's one of the best things about Texas. you go and see men wandering around in these hats as though it's a perf candy know co covers your head, you know, it gives you lots of shade' O in in the wild, you can use it as a bowl and scoop up water and drink out of it. There are a lot of You wear a stat in. I don't wear stat. I wear cowboy boots, but I've not been a big cowboy hat person. Maybe I should just to keep up the image. Back to James Talerico. Of course, the attacks on him accusing him of being a vegan talking about his Stance on transgender issues. That's about trying to paint him as a radical left progressive, the type of which you might find running in New York or California. And it's really not him, is it? Not him. He is as I magioned, he's a former seminarian. He's a state legislator who has a pretty centrist voting record there They're going to find these these lines that he had that they're going to try to use against over and over again to try to push them outside of the mainstream. And what are the reasons why Democrats rallied around him as their nominee rather than someone like Jasmine Crockett, who was the firebrand congresswoman from Dallas, who was his primary opponent, who had been an outspoken Trump critic was because they think that Talar Rico could reach a larger audience. He did pretty well among Hispanic voters in that primary, a little worse off against black voters, but Jasmine Crocket's black And so that probably was part of it, but also he's going to have some work to do to win over bllack voters in Texas. I think that that much is also clear. He needs to consolidate the Democratic base. He needs to be able to reach out to disaffected Republicans because there are more Republicans than Democrats in Texas. He's going to need to win independence. It's a hard road to do Yeah, we should round off, I guess, with with whether or not. withith or without Texas, the Democrats really cant take the Senate because that would be huge if they can win a majority in the Senate in November. They need seats don't? And actually Texas isn't one of their targets. Texas isn't on the highest list that the national Democrats have come out with. They have to flip four seats. The two obvious targets which we've talked about in the past are North Carolina where Tom Tillis, who we heard a clip from there is retiring, there is a popular goveror who is running Roy Cooper, who is running and leads in that race. So they think they could pick that up. There's the main race, which we've also talked about about that's an exciting one with another exciting Democratic candidate from outside the mainstream. Oyster farmer. Yes, the oyster farmer. They think they can knock off Susan Collin to his long time incumbent there. So that's that gets you to two. And then you have to start winning states that Donald Trump won pretty comfortably in twenty twenty four. Ohio's an interesting one. Sared Brown is running to win back a Senate seat there. He had been defeated, but he's a popular kind of grassroots progressive, but also codes in a way that Ohioans like. So Ohio is a possibility Alaska is a possibility. Mary Patola who won statewide in Alaska as a Democratic Cgresswoman is running to unseat an incumbent there and polls show she's doing quite well there. Iowa is another possible target that Democrats are spending money on. So you'd have to win two of those three or if you win Texas, that that opens up things even more. Now Democrats would also hold have to hold on to Michigan, which which Republicans are targeting and Georgia with the John Ossf seat, which Republicans hope to be able to rest away. So it's still a long shot, but if Texas becomes a state that's in play, it makes the path look considerably easier. Yeah. And Texas, for all its enormous size still only has the same number of senators as Chiny, Rhode Island or Delaware. Would it be symbolic? wouldould it be meaningful to actually see Texas good Democrat. It would give a lot of hope to Texas Democrats who have not had a whole lot of reason to have hope year after year election after election where they think they might have a chance and then come up short. It also would raaise eyebrows because Texas has long been the California of the Republican Party, this this bedrock consonservative state that they can rely on as an electoral base time and time again and on presidential level. So it would be a chink in the Republican armor. and it would also be a very real message to Donald Trump and the Trump Republicans that one of their guys, Ken Paxton, who ran as a Trumpier than Trump could lose in Teas that might give an opening for different kinds of Republicans maybe to start distancing themselves from Donald Trump and try to forge a path ahead that isn't as closely tied to Trumpism as Ken Paxton is. Yeah, because that's another thing. we'll be scrutinizing those results in November, Won't we to tell us what it means for twenty twenty eight and whether yeah whether the future Is Trump or whether it's more moderate Republicanism or what direction the party iss going to go in when he can't run again, assuming he doesn't run again. Yeah. I just love talking about Texas politics, And I'm excited that it actually is relevant here and that we're going to be paying attention to a Texas race come November because it is a fascinating state and the politics are so much fun. So this will be one to keep on our radars for. And it means we can go there and cover this race for the midterm elections, which I'm excited about as well. I have been completely one round by Texas. I really enjoy it now I have to say, when I first started covering American politics, I didn't, but that's because George W. Bush was president and I was going to Midland and Odes and the oil towns that he came from, which are not the finest that Texas has. But now that I've been to Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, El Paso, I'm a fan. There are some fun towns. I to My dad used to teach out in El Paso and you couldn't fly direct from Austin to El Paso back in the eighties. You had to fly through Midland and Odessa, this o this bleak oil country. And I remember I was always on these flights with these unattended miners because the kids, the family would move to Odessa and then the wives were like, we don't want to do this. They would move back to Austin or the big city and the kids would shuttle back and forth between mom and dad while the dad did all the oil work.