Path to control of the Senate

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For more, listen to the global story on bbc dot com or wherever you get your podcast Hello, it's Justin and you're about to he here. Americast. We are delighted to have you with us and if you enjoy what you he, please do consider subscribing to the podcast. That way you'll never miss an episode. Now on with today Today we're asking whether Democrats could actually win in Iowa, a red state that Donald Trump's Republicans have been dominating for more than the last decade But there's real optimism among Democrats after last night's primaries for both the Senate and the Governor's race. They've got a wealthy pro hunting candidate for governor who's facing a Republican pick who's not the one that Donald Trump endorsse And then look at the Senate. You've got a Democrat who's a paralympian backed by the whole establishment wing of the party. So are Democrats right to get their hopes up about Iowa? Welcome to Americast. Americast from BBC News. You hear that? I think when I hear that sound, it reminds me of money. We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it. This is a big cover up, and this administration is engaged in it. This guy has Trump arrangement syndrome. have For you, turn the volume up Hello, it's Sarah in the BBC's Washington Bureau. And it's Anthony right here with Sarah in Washington, DC. And it's Justin in the worldorldwide headquarters of Americast in London, England. and I should say before we start, it is just com up to three o'clock in the afternoon. on Wednesday in London. and that matters, of course, particularly this time round because we're going to be talking about election results that are not necessarily fully in, but I think we can be pretty confident about what we're saying. all the same. And what we're saying guys is just fascinating, isn't it? Because we're going to be talking mainly about a rural state Democratic partarty's successes in that rural state and also potential big pitfalls setbacks for Donald Trump in that rural state and this really matters and it matters in the state we're talking about, which is Iowa, but it matters more widely as, doesn't it? Yeah, because it is going to be the key. For for Democrats in these midterm elections, Iowa has a Senate race that is currently leaning towards Republicans. But if Democrats could flip that seat that's held by Joni Ernst who is retiring, they could be one step closer as we discussed in the past to taking control of the Senate. There's also a governor's race there. Yeah Iowa, we talk about Iowa, and I think we all know and are familiar with Iowa more than most typical midwestern states It has had a traditional position as one of the early states determining who a presidential nominee is going to be. So goovernor of Iowa actually makes a difference in that contest as well as if Iowa does become more of a battleground state in twenty twenty eight, whoever the party is that controls the governorship might have a little more influence in helping their candidate to win that state Yeah. And I mean, Donald Trump is popular there. He won it three times, twenty sixteen, twenty twenty, twenty twenty four. so even though he lost the election across the country in twenty twenty. And so it is perceived largely as a Republican state. now, But Democrats have won in living memory in my living memory, haven't they, Anthony? I mean it's one of the deepest dread states in the country. Right. Barack Obama carried Iowa in twenty twelve, I think the last time that Iowa went Democratic in a Senate race was two thousand eight. It's not like Texas where we were talking about half a century of Republican control. It does have a history of swinging sometimes to the Democrats and the Democrats in twenty eighteen actually picked up three of the four House seats there. So also you know, they have they have a hope and I think Part of the reason why they have a hope now is because of unique things that are going on in the American Midwest with farmers and unique things that are going on in Iowa. Yeah, and the farmers are fascinated because they broke reallyally big across the Midwest for Donald Trump and are suffering quite particularly from the war in Iran because not only has the price of fuel gone up, the price of fertilizer has gone up as well. There have been issues with Trump's trade tariffs also hurting the farming sector. They've had a little bit of a bailout, but probably not as much as they feel that they deserve. So watching what happens with that vote is going to be really interesting, Justin sort of widen the lens for a second again before we focus again on who the candidates are who've done well. and it is really interesting actually, the kind of candidates really matter. we'll get to that in a second. justust sort of big picture. Yes, it's not Texas. Iowa when it comes to the Democrats being completely out of the race in recent years. But it is still the case, isn't it? that one of the really striking things you look back to eight and Anthony says Obama won as well in twenty twelve. But actually, you know, in the years since then, it's been one of those places that has just leached away from the Democrats. And the thing that really is striking to me is that They have lost interest in it And what really interests me is if a combination of Donald Trump messing up and messing things up for the Republicans and the Democrats suddenly themselves thinking, Ohh, actually quite like farmers. That it seems to me is seismic Yeah, Donald Trump won Iowa in twenty twenty four by thirteen points. But to capture the way this may be swinging, there was a poll recently a Yug of economist poll that showed that Donald Trump had a net twenty negative approval rating in Iowa makes it one of the states where he is, you know, particularly unpopular. And you know, obviously we can we can say polls or polls. and if you remember Justin, we talked about an Iowa poll that showed Kamala Harris winning that state right before famously didously Yeah. Maybe we talked about it too much Yeah. so so I mean you can only you have to take polls with a grain of salt, but I think those polls and the results we saw in Iowa on Tuesday night in these primaries, I think those are all data points for what could be trouble for Donald Trump in America's heartland Obviously we're wary of polls and all predictions, but Anthy there's a couple of groups that look in great detail at different races, aren't they? and don't necessarily predict the winner, but they sort of give predictions as to whether it heavily looks like it's goingre Republican slightly or looks like a toss up. And they have moved. I mean, the Cooook political report, we've mentioned before, very, very well respected. and they've shifted the rating for Iowa's goovernor's race from lean Republican to toss up. And there's others aren't there that people really watch quite closely Mary Sabadau, who's the University of Virginia professor who runs a crystal ball. It's a whole organization that they have within the university that does these predictions. They also moveved the governor's race from Leans's Republican to toss up And both Cook and Sabadau also moveved that Senate race from solidly Republican to leans Republican. So that's still not a total toss up. But it's one of those races that we've talked about on the margins that if Democrats could put in play, it gives them a shot t winning the four seats they would need out of the thirty three, thirty four that are up for grabs in the Senate in November to take control of that chamber back. Yeah. And worth noting in the Wall Street Journal called Rob Sand, who is the Democratic candidate for governor, easily the strongest contender his party could have recruited. And Justin, it's almost as though they have been listening to you and your appeal for the Democrats to run run centrist candidates who don't focus on cultural issues, who haven't said things about transgender or anything else that could become hostages to fortune. If you could put together a sort of identicate candidate to persuade the good folks of Iowa to vote Democrat, it's probably Rob Sand, isn't it? Yeah. So he's the state auditor, isn't he? a guy who holds statewide office in Iowa. The only Democrat. The only one. Yeah, the only one and hugely unusual. He has He has two handguns. Now I'm not endorsing Sarah, the ownership of handguns, but I am saying that if you're in a place like this and your own handguns and you're a Democrat You're immediately saying something to people. and' exactly, Sarah says, it's this ability to signal. It is not that. Progressives cannot win in other parts of America. indndeed, very, very obviously they can, and the progressive left message can be hugely successful. But what the party's done in recent times seemed to me and I've said this a number of times is that they've not allowed those who are not progressive to be selected in places where the other message is a good one. And this guy is the other message and they've got in there. A he quotes from the Bible. He's got it all exactly as Sarah says. He's a bull hunter as well, and that t some real skills Proper midwestern stuff, isn't? Anbody can pick up a handgun, Take something to be able to kill livestock with a bull. And they go and do it early in the morning too I've done bow hunting in Iowa. I mean all we've got all got Iowa stories, but one of my kind of main memories of I was going out early in the morning at first light bow hunters and it's a really big deal there and it's a kind of deal that just interests Local people, it's a local pursuit And if you actually genuinely do it rather than pretending do it then you're really in with people and that's why this guy is such a strong candidate, whichich he genuinely is, isn't he? Yeah, his office on the Capitol in Iowa has mounted taxidermy heads of animals that he's killed. his slogan is governor for all. so he is making a kind of a centrist pitch a disaeffected Republicans, his yard signs are green, not kind of the Democratic blues. So is he's the kind of person that that you might imagine has a fighting chance to take advantage of divisions on the Republican side. Yeah, and along the same lines, he starts his rallies by having the audience sing America the beautiful. and he's actually posted a campaign video. We should listen to a bit of it. This is a compilation of people singing that song want to do one simple thing to just get us all together and remember that actually we can work together to make something nice and that is Sing the first verse of America, the Beautiful pions I think he's going to be welling up now I know. you sing the first dance of America, the Beautiful Justin, did you ever get that ingrained in your head while you were? No, I wish I could actually. that's Iot even sure my daughter can, but I'll test her on it and get back to you. Now Sand as, you mentioned Anthony does describe himself as a governor for all and he's actually picked a trademark slogan where he says it's not redder or bluer, it's better and bl Srewer You want to know what real change looks like How about a campaign for governor That has over one thousand donors. from the opposite political party. This campaign is bigger than being Democrats or Republicans It's not reder or bluer, it's better and truer. And people are responding. peopleeople are coming together in a way that considering how divided we are these days feels really meaningful. So I hope you'll join us. Thanks. So all these donations from Republicans. He's also got a lot of donations from people a little closer to him about over million dollars from his wife and in laws, which has helped him the Democrat nomination in fact he ran unopposed. The whole party kind of rallied around him. He has the ability to fund himself in a state where it's not all that expensive to run for statewide office. So it makes him a formidable candidate. Yeah, And it's interesting, isn't it? When we talk all the time about how polarized American politics is, how nobody will even consider the arguments of the other side Far fewer people, it seems, are switching their votes between Republican and Democrat to have somebody who's appealing straight down the middle like that and saying that he can bridge these divides. So I mean it's an interesting model for other candidates across the country. And it's a model just emphasize this case. it's a model that they used to follow. You think of Brian Schweitzer. I don't know if either of you ever came across him when he was governor of Montana I spent a memorable day with him Gsh, it must have been in, well, I suppose in the early two thousands, which was when he was governor of Montana, but he had these lines, these kind of stock lines like, I think gun control is hitting what you shoot at and all these kind of things that were just completely flew in the face of the norms in the Democratic Party. And yet he was, you know pretty successful and very popular, at least for a time. Democratic governors. Sore in a sense with this guy with Sand, they're going back to a model that's worked in the past, aren't they Yeah, I think that One of the things that Democrats have been trying to do this time around in this midterm is run candidates who appeal to the place that they're from. And so you know you run M Danni in New York City, but you run Abigail Spamberger in Virginia who campaigned as a centrist and has been governing as a centrist much to the dismay of some Democrats. It is the kind of formula that helps when you're not in power and you don't have to establish some sort of a national policy. The question then is, you in twenty twenty eight, when the party has to determine who they are as a national party, then you have a bunch of different people all kind of pulling in different directions. But for midtermss in November and in this place, Iowa, he seems like he's the kind of guy who the right fit So let's look at his opponent, the Republican candidate who won the primary. Now we'll get to the details about him what he's running on, but Zach Lane, businessman and farmer, who's never run for office before particularly interesting because he beat a sitting congressman who had been endorsed by Donald Trump And we've talked on the podcast about the other primaries we've had this year already and the way in which Trump candidates have all won have all stormed to the front off the back of Donald Trump's endorsement. Here is our first glimpse that he doesn't have the vice like grip on the Republican partarty that we've been talking about before because Zach Lane was not his preferred chice and yet he went on and won. So why Anthony? Well, we talked about last week Donald Trump being able to pick people and throw his endorsements behind and push them over in the top, including in ousting incumbent Republicans who had found disfavor with Trump But this time around, yeah, Trump threw his weight behind Finstra, the incumbent congressman, three term congressman who had been a loyal Trump supporter in the House of Representatives. and that wasn't enough. Now part of was the endorsement came just in the last week. Finstra didn't even have time to go up on it with a television ad toouting that endorsement base in Iowa, Conservatives, evangelicals in particular, they weren't sold Fstra they found him as two establishments centr And so they they backed a couple of different candidates, but the one who ended up winning was Zach Lwn who had endorsements from Charlie Kirk's old group turning Point USA hadad endorsements for the makeake America healthy again group. He campaigned on making Iowa healthy again. He campaigned on Iowa F, which sounds a little bit like America first and limiting foreign and out of state ownership of Iowa farms. So he ran to the right, I guess a Fndstraw, which you know he out trrumped the candidate that Trump endorsed. Yeah, that's fascinating. And Jestin you can probably hear. He is so little known on the national stage, but I call him Zach Lane, Anthony's calling him Zach Lan. It is spelled L. I right. And so we will find out. I think it's Lane. and the only reason I think it's lane is I've actually listened to the guy's adverts and a defvitely lane at the end When he eventually runs for the presidency, will have sorted it out In the meantime, actually, why don't we listen to him talking of his adverts? Let's listen to his victory speech because there's a load of things you just brought up, Anthony that I think are just fascinating about the message that he has and where he's running from as well. this isn't just as simple as o, the non Trump candidate has won this up to, I don't know, sort of country club Republicans finally winning one. This isn't that at all. It's more interesting than that in a way. but let's listen to the guy himself. H he is I fear every day we are losing the Iowa we love We've lost ten thousand family farms since two thousand Our young people are leaving faster than forty six other states because they don't see enough opportunity here Wall Street hedge funds and foreign interests are buying and selling our land driving up costs so our kids are priced out of the market. They treat Iowaand like it's a commodity Inead of our inheritance They treat us like numbers, not neighbors. On the front steps of our farmhouse, many of you were here. when I made when I announced my campaign, I made it very clear as governor I will take on the big A cartels, I will break up their monopolies, and I will get Iowa farmers a fair deal. Yeah, that's really fascinating. right? An anti establishment, anti outsider campaign that does sound a bit like some of Trump's themes that he's run on for the past decade. And I think you're right Sarah. I think that probably looked at soft Finrro. He's an incumbent congressman. He's been able to win there. He had been up in the polls, generally viewed as the front rununner and the likely nominee. I mean if if you believe in these things, the betting markets had him like a seventycent to eighty percent chance of winning when Donald Trump endorsed him and on the ground, it was a different story. And on the ground, there are people who are not all that thrilled with the way things are going in Iowa aren't all that thrilled with some of Donald Trump's policies to be quite honest. is tariffs and the way that China responded to the tariffs by stopping purchase of Iowa agricultural goods that really hit farmers And then the Iran war, by raising the price of energy, by raising the price of fertilizer for all of these farms in Iowa, That's been a double punch that has really hit them. And so just because Donald Trump says Jump and this is the guy, it seems like there was and we're talking about a a thousand plus votes. This was a small sample size because not many people vote in Republican primaries, still they didn't fall in line behind Donald Trump's pick the way we've seen in other places Donald Trump obviously knows he's in trouble with the farming community even before he saw this result because he's making one of his rare visits outside of Washington to go and talk to voters at a campaign event. And it's farmers he's going to see in Wisconsin on Friday. So yeah, I think if you needed extra reminding, this is the fact that yeah, that is one community that needs to be heavily courted, I think by Donald Trump if they're not going desert him in their droves. But what interests me is it's not just the farmers, is it? One have you mentioned that he was endorsed by makeake America healthy again or by their pack or super pack the money fascinates me. because if you think of makeaking America healthy again, the Maha movement, so this is Robert Kennedy Jr. and It's very much focused on healthy eating, etcet. but it's also got a kind of tinge to put it mildly of anti vax hasn't it' certainly anti big farmer very based outside the mainstream, edgy, etca, etc, etc. And Until recently, I things fair to say isn't it pretty Pretty Trump adjacent So this is yet another split, isn't it? So you can talk about the farmers splitting off. those who were and lots of them were keen Trump supporters But the Maha movement as well, what's going on where suddenly they are also out outside the tent During the Iowa caaucusus at the beginning of twenty twenty four, I was there covering the race, you know, Trump running against Rond de Santis and all of the other candidates I spoke to lots of voters and families who turned up at their rallies, and I've kept in touch with a few of them to say, how do they feel? now? People who then decided they were going to vote for Donald Trump in the primary, who enthusiastically voted for him in the general election in november twenty twenty four. Every few months I just give them a ring and have a chat about what they think is going on in the country and how happy or not they are about it And a couple of the mothers, particularly are really, really Maha. And they will say they were upset about trade tariffs and worried about what it was going to do to inflation. They're not happy about the war in Iran. They're certainly not happy about what that's done to the cost of living. But they are so invested in Maha In some of the ideas about getting additives out of food and changing Americans' diets. and that feels to them much closer to their kitchen table, to their families than a lot of the big policy things that we talk about all the time I would say they're probably more invested in Maha than they are in MAGA no matter how MAA they seemed in twenty twenty four. That's really interesting. mean It is exactly as you suggest, kind of spintering, isn't it potential splintering of a coalition that's been enormously powerful for Donald Trump for, you know, it's pretty obvious, isn't it? but now could equally go in any direction. And it's a reminder, isn't it? that people saw Donald Trump as a vessel. putting their own views on what should happen into reality. In other words, they wanted him. You think back to the anti abortion movement and what they wanted from Trump in his first term and the picking of the Supreme Court justices that would get rid of Re v Wade, etceter. People have used him various reasons at various times, but they have not necessarily ever been as committed to him as a person as sometimes I think It is suggested in the media. And that seems to me to be coming true now Right. As we talk about at the top, there's another statewide race, an open seat, the Senate race in Iowa. And in that race, the Trump backed candidate cruised to victory. Ashley Hinson, who also was a member of Congress representing Iowa. She ran and won by a comfortable margin. So the interest on And that the Senate primaries for Iowa was actually on the Democratic side because there was a contest. There was a contest between someone who was a more kind of progressive candate and one who had been backed by establishment Democrats, including Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader. and it was that candidate. they the establishment backed centrist who won. his name is Josh Turk is a two time paralympic gold medalist in a wheelchair. He has final bifida because his father who fought in the Vietnam War was exposed to Agent Orange. He's a state legislator now. and he won defeating another state legislator. He had endged twenty one surgery since the age of twelve. so he's got a compeing personal narrative He's running also as a centrist. and he had campaign videos where it showed him getting out and talking to people in his wheelchair and then getting out and dragging his wheelchair up the steps to get around to knock on front doors. I mean, it' a pretty powerful moment. Well, Josh, tell us how you win that house seat When no one said that was possible. The blueprint is hard work, grit, and determination. I went out every single day crawling those stairs, knocking doors, dragging my wheelchair up, having face to face conversations with Republicans, with independents, with Democrats. It did not matter the party. very first thing they would say is, how in the world did you get up here And I would say, I crawled up here. I drove my wheelch up here. That's how important it is to have a conversation with you. Talk about red states and red districts and red Senate seats turning blue. look no further than Iowa. The big thing about this guy Josh Chireck is not only, as you say, he's got an amazing kind of resume and this kind of real sense about him of being special and interesting, It comes from the fact that he has to cope with all these physical difficulties to do the job. but number two he is, I mean again to go back to this thing of picking horses for courses as it were. So there was a progressive left candidate. Wh ran against him and that's fine. But the party in the end made the choice of him for the obvious reason, it seems to me, that he would be much more likely to win the Senate seat than the progressive left candidate. So he was endorsed, wasn't he by the party leadership, bit of a rare victory for the party leadership for Chuck Schumer and the rest of them. They' battered about all the time now until they're useless and they don't fight Donald Trump enough, etca, etc. But Bernie Sanders and all the progressives went for the other candidate and lost And that seems to me to be this another example of the Democrats getting serious about winning in a place like this. It's as simple as that, isn't it We'll see on this. as we noted, the prediction sites, the expert Crystopal peers said this is a leans Republican race, but this is also an environment where Democrats might have the wins at their back and they might be able to pick up an Iowa, they might be able to pick up an Ohio or Maine as we' talked about, or Alaska or even Texas as we've talked about. And if they do enough of that, then they can take control of the United States Senate. The thing to remember also is that Donald Trump isn't on the ballot. And when we talk about how Donald Trump has won in Iowa three straight times, one thing I've noted when I've been there is Donal Trump support has come out of the woodwork in Iowa. They are people who are not what you would call high propensity voters.. Well it can be a very, very long drive to the polling station in Iowa. And yeah. And so they show up. and that's one of the reasons why some of these presidential polls I think have been wrong is because they don't They don't capture Donald Trump's ability to turn out his supporters. What they don't do is they don't always turn out in midterm elections. and they don't always turn out to support candidates even if Donald Trump stands there and says, vote for this guy, vote for him now and he's my pick. And then I think that's what we saw last night So okay, so they've got a list of places to pick up And we've talked in the past about Maine, we've talked about Texas as well. Where does Iowa sit? How necessary is it for them to win in Iowa to be able to take control of the Senate I think Democratic insiders, they may think that Iowa is a better pickup opportunity than Texas. Part of the reason is because it's not as expensive as campaigning in Texas, which has three of the biggest media markets in the nation. but also because as we've discussed that history of Democrats being able to win statewide in Iowa more recently. So I think it fits in with The two obvious pickups that we talked about, which are North Carolina and Maine, although there's some trouble with Maine I'm going to Maine this week, and we're going to see how much trouble Graham Platinner that Democratic candidate is in. So that's the two that they're really counting on. Th then you have to find another two Iowa is one of them. Ohio's another one where Sared Brown, who's a former senator is running might be able to flip that seat back. Mary Petola, Democrat running in Alaska, who has oneon statewide there before. She might be able to oust the incumbent and then Texas and that really fascinating race that we've discussed in Texas and then maybe thr Florida also, but there's two that Democrats really think they have to get. and then they have to find two from the collection of Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Florida to be able to flip while defending two other seats, Michigan and Georgia that Republicans are targeting the Democratic candidates there. I mean, it's worth really emphasizing that as well, isn't it? as well as obviously winning ses. They've also got to hold on to Those two seats that you mention and some suggestions, certainly in Michigan that they might have trouble doing that, in which case picking up other ones isn't necessarily going to do the job for them. Look before we go, Anthony there is a lot of chat about Maine, a lot of chat about Iowa. There's also a lot of chat about you Um We've had a lot of correspondence about something you said on the pod a couple of weeks ago. This is when we were talking about Javier Besera, the Democratic candidate for the Governor California race, or at least he's in the primary, isn't he? We don't yet know exactly what's happened in that. But it wasn't actually necessarily about him. it was this. Some people started to gravitate towards Visera because as milk toast as he is, he at least seems to be a safer pick Right. Milk toast. I love that phrase and I still have I've looked it up before. I know it's got a Que in the middle of it. somewhere in the middle, yeah. I still can't work out what it means and it always makes me think of dipping a piece of toast in a glass of wil. What does it really mean and? I mean, I think that's the best kind of definition I can come up with that it just means very bland and and un Unallg Okay well, as ever, the expertise is not with us. It's with our listeners and Mary Hill Harris has emailed us about it from an American, she says, an American resident in the UK since my marriage in nineteen sixty six, still a regular visitor to a tiny village in Western New York State founded by my ancestor in seventeen eighty seven, Milk toast Buttered toast cut into pieces and submerged in hot milk is or at least was considered a mild, easily digestible meal good for children, invalids or people who are frail for some other reason. sureurely, she says this is general knowledge But what you may not know or remember, is that in the nineteen forties and fifties, there was a cartoon character named Casper Milk Toast, and this is in Sarah's manner of spelling it with the Q in the middle, portrayed as a tall, thin and very spindly neck, wispy white hair, toothbrush moustache. in one cartoon he is pictured standing stiffly at attention and the caption was The neighbour's boy has been practicing the star spangled banner on his bugle aw. morning. So