Wealth Inequality and Housing Costs

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With the grill fired up and your backyard set to perfection, you'll be able to invite friends and family over to kick off the party Start celebrating with low prices guaranteed at the Home Depot. Prices may vary stor ex su will pricey Home Depot com sl priceash for details Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ridhol's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions clients of Brid Holdol'salth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast Acord to Animal S spiritits Michel Ben, it turns out the stock market cannot and will not go up every single day. Why because we a one down day We had One and a half wayay two But now there are, of course, headlines that are following why stocks are down and I'm not dismissing. the yield inflation stuff, I, you know, I think yields being at their highest level ever. Not that Jesus Not ever. They their highest level in quite a some time. you know,'s where it's worth looking at, not swooping under the rug I'm soring that under the rug. Okay, fine. Every I've got plenty to say about this, but every time Rates get to five percent. People flip out And then what happens? rates fall again and nothing happens So let's let's hope that complacent Ben is right that but I'm just saying like the the SMP and the Ques in particular are so far so so far above any sort of normal trend, moving average, whatever If we got a four percent pullback, heaven forbid even seven. U It might just be what the doctor ordered Yes, this could this is this is has to be one of those Eventually we'll get a camp taking profits here. All those semiconductor stocks are up a million percent. People go, okay, fine, I'm getting out. I'm taking some pros. I made so much money. I So a frided byy. I was like e I don't want to S it's not show, it's not really nice, U last, what day of the week was it when we was texting M I don't know, Tuesday. Maybe Tuesday, Wedesday. I can't remember. And this is the friend of mine that like I don't, I didn't we never we don't speak stocks. I assume he doesn't listen to the podcast Um And he said, I like what you guys are saying about Mikeron I don't even know what show he was talking about because he was talking about it so much Uh, he sold ten percent of Micron at whatever. he crushed. He made a ton, you know percentage wasise, I don't much, obviously I'm not asking much money he put in, but he did quite well in the trade. And he would say how he sold ten percent. he's mad that he sold ten percent But' like ye, you know If you're bad that you sold ten percent of a stock that tripled I don't know what he bought it Like,'s you s that's a pretty good Good sign. Anyway, u I do think I do think that So friend, if you're listening, sorry to dunk on you, but They're dunk Fair dog do think that this is The fattest pitch setup for bears Now I just thought of this, I haven't really liked gone back and checked the tape that we've had in a while because you have you could very credibly or easily make the case that we are in a CapEx memory bubble, whatever. Choose your bubble while at the same time, we have a new Fed chairman coming in. Inflation is sticky, rates are high. We might actually need to raise rates. likeike that is that is a very plausible potent. Pable Remember poted potables from Saturdayightife. I don't remember what those were, but That's aort of cock But wouldn't the, but wouldn't the come back would just be AI. Well yeah, I'm. I'm not suggesting that's going to play out. I'm just saying there's a lot of meat on that bone for Bear toit ch. The weird thing is this has been the first level thinking bull market for so long now. It has been second level thinking So could we actually for once have a first level thinking bear market as well? Because fair The risks are so widely known right now. Everyone knows what the risks are, right? Yeah, inflation is sticky, the war Interest rates are going up AI potentially just blowing out way too much access and And that' you don't all the risk. Everyone knows them. the AI H Bubble Seven months ago, that was not a thing because as we all remember, Everyone wanted no part of the bubble. These stocks were getting murdered. There was no memory eightx earnings, like we were in a different environment happens so fast So like eight months ago nobody was saying the AI bubble, It was the anti bubble a matter of fact, the narrative that we were saying was there is no AI bubble And as a matter of fact, it is actually destroying everything else in its wake while simultaneously not getting blown up itself to the upside But Ben, speaking of like the first first level thinking I've told this I've said this before the show And twenty I don't know, fourteen, fifteen. a family member of mine had been a longt timee Cheryd of Apple And he said the next apple is apple or something like that. And I definitely like, you know I definitely like laughed at him like that internally. Uh, yeah, he was right. It's been a first level thinkable bull market. Howard Markx ruined it for semi intelligent market participants. Anybody that thought that they were like moderately clever. couldould blame Howard Marks. It's a great company, but that doesn't mean it's a great stock.ike, guess what? All all the great companies have been great stocks It is really like the first time in history has lasted This l So yeah, maybe it will be just the obvious risks will be the ones that eventually get us. But the thing is the one the outcome that is going to leave no one satisfied is just that we have a really quick correction And then this thing just keeps going. Right? We have a whoof, ten percent whoosh because like we need to pull back a little bit But it's not the system clear everyone wants to see And then we just kind of a few months later picked right back up where we left off We'll talk about smmoother for longer later in the show, but let's start here So we were talking on TCf withith Kai, who killed it. He was really good on the show we've had this conversation a bunch. likeike all right, what stops us Right? An object in motion stays in motion. There has to be something to knock it off its course and Ki was talking about like, 'cause I I said like and What do we think about the fact that Companies, management, and listen, I know there are a lot of dumb asses out there, okay? So it's very easy to like, say what about this, this, this, this and this But management teams have a lot more information. By the way, great, you've been using the word dumbass a lot lately. For some reason always makes me laugh. Yeah. I don't know. you did it on the show you other day and I la Okay. think that's that's a good that's a term we use a lot in the nineties, I feel like I'm glad to bring it Speaking of the nineties, I saw Beivis and Budted' going to Netflix Oh really? Okay. You know, that might be the origin of the word dumbass for all I know possible So let's I think the guy back to the future us the word dumb ass to Martdery M fly. Okay. Let's all agree that companies are better today than they were in the past and look no forurther than profitargins. I mean, they just They're better businesses, okay? whether you want to ascribe that to management or the products, who cares? doesn't matter The point that Kai made was, it doesn't matter. it's behavioral So it's not that they're less intelligent or more intelligent than, you know management in years past, it's that there is a behavioral component to follow what everybody else is doing perhaps right off the cliff. Matter of fact Netflix streaming, great example all of these companies that were in traditional legacy Hollywood media studios, they followed Netflix right over the streaming cliff. They overspent and it nearly sunk them. So Maybe my theory is is bunk. So anyhow From Trs and Slock, Americ's data center count is about to nearly double In the US, there are roughly four thousand existing data centers and there are almost three thousand data centers under construction So the pererhaps oversupply the way the telecom bubble bust Maybe that's just how this one plays out too If we're reaching here We're we're reaching for risks here. Everyone'sisk everyone wants I feel like everyone wants. hold on, dude, hold on Last week, you said like how do you not sound like a cheerleader I mean, should we do that every episode just be like, this is amazing. Holy shit, can you believe these arenings? My whole thinking, though is that whatever whatever knocks us off of our trajectory. It's going to be something that where no one's talking about. That's just the way that that's not always true That's not always true. That's not always true I dude, we're notaching here. I'm not saying if this, this, and then this and then this and then this happens. I'm just saying oversupply Iree that. if that's a reach. When I write a book about bubbles twenty years from now And I talk about the AI trade. That'll be a stat that's in there like, hey, there was three thousand data centers there were set to go under construction Half of them never got built. Somet like that. That's what happened to the railroads, right? They had all these lines they were going to build never got built because they oversupplied Yeah, that that's certainly a possibility I actually bought a book, a physical book because they don't have it in audio called broadbandits. about over the overbuilding of the fi rockic cables. And we think a lot about like the dot com bubble, like it was an internet bubble It was really the telecom bubble, like the build out of all this stuff. So I think that's a very plausible ending for this U duality Wait, but what causes Mega cap hyperscalers to pull back on their spending. What is the thing that makes them stop Tero Because it seems to me like the demand is there. So what's going to cause them to all of sudden is be like, all right, fine.'rening off the train. That I agree with you. But two things could be true There can be enough demand to soak up all of the excess supply that is going to happen in five years like I'm, I'm not saying's tomorrow I'm that's in the fiberric cable, there wasn't enough deand there what we didn't have the computers and stuff ready for that yet. It had to come down the line. Thats like now we have the demand The two muchch demand all you hear is there's not enough computute. So that's a very and I ask Kay this, like what is a better what is more likely outcome The baton handoff and he's like, no, that never happens. And I totally agree. It could happen I'm just I'm just giving, I'm having an open mind that like what if it does, though? I'm with you,. I'm the toobias from The Tvias Harris who couldn't score a point in the final Sven qu, What a bottom that is. Bice funke for a R of development It didnn't work for those people, but it might work for us I I think that's a very like likely possible outcome as well. All right So duality research every week, they show the they show a chart of the price return of the sectors. Then they show the EPS growth and then they show the PE multiple growth And What you'll notice is EPS growth positive in every sector. and multiple contraction in every sector ides for staples industrialss and real estate. It's a j. So you can look at this from This is Warshock test You could say that if you're a bll, you could say this is phenomenal The market is getting cheaper orr we still have room to run. there's no euphoria. Yeah. Fundamentals are not detached from reality. Fundamentals are literally great. And a bear could very easily say Dumbass sorry, did it again Um The market's not stupid These multiples are contracting because the earnings keep going up But the market knows that they're not sustainable. so they can't possibly ne time shot in your arm for earnings. Yeah great. you guys keep talking about earnings, but this is not going to last. Right. So we spoke about this last week and we use this on TCA, but I don't want to assume that everybody watches every single thing that we do. So these charts are too good not to share here. Um We spoke about NVidia just getting bigger and bigger than number excuse me, the earnings, the market cap And yet the forward PE is is going down. And I said, that's not cheaper, that's rational So look at the twelve month forward net income for the four PE ratio. Yes, the forward PE ratio is on the lower end of its range that it's been over theess, I don't know neearly ten years. It has to be when you consider that the forward twelve months ear net income has gone from even it's like I can't even see it is that fifteen billion in twenty twenty three to two hundred twenty three billion dollars today. You can't get a premium. it's too big. So Matt showed what the market cap of Nvidia would be if it were to trade at a at various forward is And right now at twenty five times, it's eight and a half percent of the market If it were to take up to thirty times, it would be ten percent At thirty five times fld earnings, that's twelve percent of the market Its just, it's it's it has a p you would think too big If a company is growing this fast, why isn't it given a forty times multiple? Like it should be, but because then it would be a ten trillion dollars company. Its a five triionllar company,ate Um I uh For anybody that thinks that we are in a stock market bubble Not an AI hyp scale, but just a stock market bubble, all right Let's like, put a pin in the eye trade the SP five hundreders is a buble Oh really Duality research, check this out distribution of FOowerPEs. I've never seen this before and I love it so much The distribution of forower PE is by he shows it both by the percentage of stocks and by the percentage of market capash So Tro the percentage of market cap that is trading between thirty and thirty five times earnings, not cheap is twenty percent Look at all of the percentage of stocks that are trading between Ten and fifteen times, fifteen and twenty times twenty, twenty five times. So thirty percent of the index by name. is between ten and fifteen times thirty percent. So the majority of the market trade is below twenty times earnings. N my Marset Cap but just number of stocks Isn't that wild It is, and if the AI trade blows up, it's not going to matter The market will all go down. True. This is the K shappe stock market But this is the kind of thing where you said, if you were really concerned about it, if you were really worried about an AI bubble bursting pllenty of other places to go Totally Yes A lot of places, all right exhibit aart of the week exxhibit A for advice. com I' gonna to try free trial Matt and team did one on Enings Grth, and we talked about this. It looks by the way ex we speak about it all the time. It's for advisors only Yes. Yeahes. I think we had a few individuals try and like, hey, this isn't for me like Yeah, of course it's for Fancial advisors But look at the earnings, expected earnings this quarter. just sh shot up like a rocket ship. It doesn't look like it's real. It look like a COVID chart So yeah, a lot of people could be saying T your point Hey DAs Instead of Ds. This is a one time boost, a one time shot in the arm The market has already priced this in and it's going to move on. How about this? If these earnings come back to where they were, the market will fall forty percent How about this though? Like to youree? yeah, I'd have to Yeahah, it would go the other way Mike Zacardi, Russell two thousand is seeing EPS growth forty percent this year thirty eight percent next year a small gaps. I need to look inside these numbers. That's wild. Y, we're going to have to put a charcet on this one because I'd never seen this that This has to be this has to bet Bernie's growth. This has to be productivity What else could it possibly be? Are we really seeing that much productivity growth for small caps? It could just be What could it possible what could it be? I don't know, because growth was so low in twenty twenty five. I don't know I honestly have no idea I'm putting you mentioned yields at the start. So yield the thirty year treasury bond is up to like five point one, five point two percent. E keeps saying, this is the highest yield since the Great financial crisis Boy, this is a this is this is something. J wait Okay So here's here's I cameama where pull this chart from It shows highighest since two thousand seven So treasure yields are up a lot. Do you know What TLT? So TLT is a twenty plus year. Gvernment bond ETF Do you know what the performance is this year for TLT Inclusive of the yield. What is the performance this year? if you had to guess because rates are up a lot Down three percent. Yeah. It's down two and a half percent or so. Do you know what the performance was last year It was guilty Yeah, it was up like four or five percent. Yeah Yeah, but but that doesn't mean anything But I'm saying that no nobody is saying the price of your bonds is the risk. But this to me is a boy who cried wolf thing. Show me a real impact of this And I'll believe you, but every time this happens, people freak out and then nothing happenens. I'm saying sometimes cryed wolf S sometimes the wolf comes Do you know what the average Tre Do you know the average long term treasury yield is going back fifty years in the United States. What's a long term average for the yield Six. six point two percent. Today's five point two percent That's what I'm saying. So what? Stop telling me this is a crisis when nothing ever happens. I show me a crisis. I'm sick of hear about goverment debt and debt and treasury bonds. In Japan, they're saying Japan bond yields are up so much. guuess what? Stocks are at all time highs worst stocks at all time high in the US Same thing doesn't matter if youils are high. Until it does Show me a crisis though. I'm sick of hearing people complain about it. Sh me This I'm sick of the boyil cred wolf stuff Nothing happens, nothing ever happens Give me a crisis? . I really, really, really hope this is' age poorly Now, listen, I am with you thr of my faith. I I am with you. I am front of you with you But we are here to talk about the market and this is a potential this is a potential risk. Yeah, And I'm saying, no it's not Hope you right I'm to talk about market timing So on the prof G podcast last November As about the motor on. And he's one of the smartest, if you listen to hisot him in any interview, he's one of the smartest people alive in the markets probably. Eily. He's ridiculously smart. I remember I read one of his books, his books on valuations, like this, you know, like four inches thick when I first and a lot of it was over my head, but anyway, really smart guy So he was saying, listen, I'm super, super worried about an AI bubble. And I'm raising cash for the first time basically in my life Gallay was like, man. Be they work together at MIU. He's like, I've never heard you sound this bearish before. This is I've never heard you like this It's crazy. And he said, yeah, I'm telling people they should maybe raise cash because this is and I've never done this before So he was on the show again this past week. for update and he's like, you know, a' just kidd You know, he was like, you know what This is why you don't time the market. I was wrong And he he, you know, he owned up to it. And he said when did he say that? When did he say where his cash So this is a lastass November, a glass Thanksgiving. I remember listening to it when I was on Disney And I was like, man, this is a really smart person. He sounds Uberar. She's like, listen, this whole AI trade, everything is the AI trade And when it blows up, there's nowhere to hide. I'm raising cash And He said, I've never done this before. And then he said, you know what Time in the markets hard. I was wr And I just I want to remind people how hard it is to time this thing and how long this thing's been going on and how no one is going to get it perfectly. And if they do, they're lucky. they're pulling out of their ass It's not like a real analysis. You can't tie these things. I'm not as susceptible to market opinions from smart people as I was in the past I used to be very easily influenced, especially if somebody had a British accent that was bearish Bow tie. Bowtie gets you every time. cryptite. If I could like give investors general investors like people are listening, one ability. It would be to listen to these smart people. and just completely discount it Yes. Just like, okay, these are intelligent people. they can't see the future. Intelligent people can't see the future. It's so hard It's so hard because these demotor and whoever you listen to They know four hundred times as much as you do Yes. And so you think that they're experts and therefore they can predict just is not thease. I learned this early too. When I first was in meetings When I first joined the industry I would I would listen to these people talk about the markets and I'm like, oh my gosh, I'm never going to be as smart as these people And then I saw what happened in the G financial crisis in the years afterwards and I thought, Ohh, none of these people knew it was going to happen. They've all been wrong. And that was like a real wake up call for me like, you're right, don't takeake some analysis and tibbets from them, but they cannot predict the future. They can't And I'm also not discounting experts No, right? Like like it's not just like Dot legitimately these some of these people that you listen to are brilliant and know So me. Okay. so I was listening to, uh U Duar Kash. I listened to a podcast. yesterday, the day before It ended on Spotify and automatically started playing the new one So it was Darques Patel and he had like a He had somebody on that studies how my Godd, I can't even I can't even describe what they were talking about, how your genes change over like millennium, right? Like natural selection, how that all works. And these guys were speaking a different language. That guy Darcatch could go so wide. It's amazing How many different things that guy could talk about Anyay, I don't even know why was listened to quite frankly. I didn't understand the single thing they were saying It was just sort of background noise. so this guy who was talking about like how things change He can't predict the future either And did you hear the fertility guy with Derek Thompson Like and that guy can't predict the future. So those are legitimate experts They know more about their field than anybody on the planet And yet they' they're tossing they're tossing the coin. And the reason is because they're human. So Michael Burry There's another head bye Michaelburry warns of stock crash as tech jump echoes two thousand peak H history tells us that even if the party goes on for a week month, three months or a year, the resolution will be much lower prices getting doing this? We're getting into a rare ir so extreme, the consequences will be unavoidable no matter where one hides. kindind of sounding similar. Spencer Jake at theall Stet J journal did this thing where he plotted Burry's calls on on the line of the market, right? Eemember twenty nineteen, he was calling for a passive bubble Uh he said in twenty nineteen, he said this will be ugly. in twenty twenty two. He said this will be worse in two thousand eight. Remember he had the sell tweet in twenty twenty three. I just like to remind people of these not to like shove it down someone' throat likeike haa, you were wrong, but it's to your point. You can't listen to every one of these predictions. I would love drive you insane. I would love to see what his returns look like I'm guessing. I bet they've been okay. I'm guessing they've been not even Like if if you lined up the things that we see about in the newspaper versus performance, you would say something is not tracking here because there's no way that he's lost twenty percent a year for. I mean, obviously, right? But it's like that with all those people with Drucken Miller and Dalio and PTJ You hear what they say in CBC and you go, Oh my gosh, these guys are sobarrassed They're predictinging another crash Then you look at what they hold and it's not like that at all They're macro predictions, but they don't allow that to seep into their portfolio. That's the thing. Um Speaking of a passive bubble Good one from Goldmen Sachs that I love this ownership of the US equity market So I saw someone post a thing the other saying, passive index funds now make up sixty percent of all fund assets. It's like holy crap Now look it for the total stock market Passive mutual funds make up six percent ETFs make up ten percent, which is the same as active mutual funds at ten percent Passive mutual funds and ETFs make up less than foreign investors So it's a tiny piece of the overall pie. But what if foreign investors are holding ETF's I index b. I think I just like that Doesn't work like that. They be included in that Your point is taken.' it's It's simultaneously obviously a gigantic part of the market. I mean, obviously, right? It's like it's many, many, many, many trillions, but it's also There's other things going on inside the stock market, stipetics funds. Here's people keep saying, People have no decisions, there's no fundamentals involved with buying this stock The biggest piece of the pie is direct household ownership, and guess who owns those shares Elon Musk Bezos The start founders of these companies are they ever selling them And that's forty percent of the market. That's where most of that money is. It's people who work at these companies and own shares in the stock 're not selling either Here's I what I think one of the things that is very legitimate about the changing structure of how the market is held and traded Back in the day, there was a lot of analysts, a lot more analysts than there are today covering a bunch of different stocks Like mid cap stocks, small cap stocks used to have a lot of analals coverage And they just don't anymore And if nobody discovers these names, it is harder for them to trade on fundamentals. whichich is why I think a lot of the active managers have had such a hard time. It's like there could be value in these stocks, but they're just dead money because nobody's there to recognize the value All of these companies are going to be covered now because of AI There's not going to be any more Stones left unturned Think about how much easier it be for an equity analysts to have a wider cast a wider net in terms of the companies that they follow The point Right There's there's no going to be no more no one pays attention to these companies anymore. That's that's the thing of the past Equity Resesearch departments are going to cover every stock they can All right so speaking of AI, let's get to this email that we got As you discuss your new porterthouse SMA strategy, I woered to myself, could I ask AI to tell me about their momentum strategy so I could skip all that pesky having to send Rid holts to my money and just get the expertise free from the machine. And then this guy sent us like whatever AI spit out And I wanted to talk about this because this is going to be a thing where you can go to you'll be able to go to AI. and I'm sure I think there's already you know public has something like this already. I'm going to create my own index And I'm going to hit a butt And it's going to say trade it for me And I'm to create my own rules. And in this basket of stocks And I wanted to do this, and I wanted to change this. Do it for me. That is definitely going to be a thing But I think what's going to happen is you're going to create one of these systems And then you're going to tinker And then you're gonna to change this. You're going to change that Wait, that didn't work. Let's change this Well, that didn't work. takeake that out And you're never going to be able to stop tinkering because it'll be there. There's no barriers to entry and sometimes Having strategies with relatively simple rules and our strategy actually is not that simple. thought that goes into it The hard part is just sticking with something That's the thing. I think AI is going to just Parious entry being knocked down It's going to be impossible for people to stop tinkering with stuff like this. Dpend on your personality totally. For me, abbsolutely. I'm a tkrer. you know that. So what do you think about these people who want to just, all right, I'm just going to replicate what you do. I'll take I'll get seventy five percent of the weir and I'll try to do it myself moreore power to you. Yeah, sure might not. It's experiment Yeah, go for it You can outsource trrading systems and stock screens and all this stuff, if you don't understand how a strategy works and why that's the hard part. It's like the portfolio construction. It's not necessarily Building a screen is not rocket science. I mean, there's, you know, not to discount how much work went into it. But it's the portfolio management and and it's the decision making and the behavior. And can you stick, you know, the stick to itness? And like understanding, guess what? this strategy is not going to work at some point. No strategy works all the time. There's going to be A good win rate in the stock market is maybe fifty five percent or sixty percent Oh yeah. So we had somebody bususting our chops about laun term momentum strategy after one of after like an all time performance run for momentum Is this the top? And he was just bustsing balls. Like because I respond. I said, we started building this in the winter. L I wish that this didn't happen. Because momentum like anything else is seasonal, right? It has it stays in the sun and then it has its periods where it' suns shit. And there's no doubt about it that Mata wines are really painful. That's the nature of the beast Yes. And you also have to figure out the position sizing of well, how much of my portfolio is this going to be Right? If you put all your portfolio in it, you're going to it's going to be probably kind of painful. if you put piece of your portfolio and you have complidence to it, that's a different thing. And that's you're right. It's the portfolio management side of things. Anyone can create any screen they want these days. That's easy Fair question. So I want to stick with I want to stick we're going to stick with this. I want to stick with some of the AI stuff because I think a couple of months ago, like, man, the my personal usage of AI has happened grradually then suddenly and I was trying to think of a different phrase because it's so cliche, but it is true So like maybe like a year and a half ago I was thinking like How exactly are you how exactly are you using AI? And I mean you ben Cross, I just mean like people that are talking about it so much, how are they using it So I want to give an example of how I used it over the weekend Howard Lindson shared an article AI is the new Netflix And It was fairly technical And I am not a technical person especially when it comes to technology. I'm not gonna to lie. I read this piece, I still don't quite get the analogy. I did keepeep going. Okay, I don't get it. If I understand it correctly The Internet was built and Duncan could jump in here if this is a Duncan thing The internet was built for download. Like and when streaming came along and it really disrupted the broadband, um availability, like I think it things sort of buckled. We didn't have enough infrastructure So we were built to receive information AI, we are pushing it out This is like an upload thing So I think this article is about like how the system is going to evolve So anyway I ask Claude u to break it down for me. And here's what Claude said Back in two thousand eight, video streaming was the thing that made people care about download speed It eighte bandwidth drove everyone to upgrade their internet and force the cable fiber companies to rebuild their networks around it O Malik, he's the author. And also the guy wrote broadband it's the ser found the book OmAallek's argument is that AI is now playing that same role Except it's flipping the direction. AI is the killer app of the next error, not because of what it downloads because of what it uploads So I never thought about it that way and I said, Hmm Let me ask Claude how our Porter House portfolio is positioned for this potential disruption, this potential theme. Now Obviously this is not investment advice, okay? So we have We have porter house and Wh Chartge as a pluggin And so it pulled it directly And it said, pull the live book, Porter House is heavily exposed to the themeam but through a specific slice of it and not the slice not the slice O Malk actually emphasizes So I said, Hm, okay So it showed me u The holding, the ticker of the weight and where it sits in the thesis. So Sienna, Vertdiv and Aphinol, three of the bigger names in the portfolio, and it describe what's going on here. And then it said to me, You have you have essentially zero exposure to the part of Om's thesis that's actually differentiated Claude said his sharpest least credit point was the acxis layer structural split fiber, which is Rising and A and T as well as structurally advantage cable Comcast and charter Um, Porta households none of these No telecom, no cable So the portfolio is loaded on the crowded AI infA Cappex reading under thesis. By the way Yeah. is Claud taking shots at our portfolio, momentum by definition especially when it's working Caude guess? I'm glad don own at T andT. Yeah, momentum works, it is crowded by definition, Okaykay. So that's that's not like becausecause these aren't momentum names yet. Maybe they will if thesis plays out Okay, so but here's what Claude said, Let me finish Uh d d d So the portfolio is loaded on the crowded AI infra Capx reading of thesis and has no position in the genuinely contontrarian last mile angle That's not a criticism of the signal Telecoms haven't had the momentum to qualify But it tells you the factor is expressed in the consensus version of the theme not the differentiated one Not that you ask, but it is important, att least for me personally. One of the reasons why I love the stretchy so much is not to make the sense too much like a commercial, but I can't ride winners. I've said this to you guys a million times I don't have the ability to do it It's not in my personality. I know how hard stocks I know how many stocks are terrible. And so when I have a winner, I take it. And Peter Lynch famously said, selling a winner and add into to loser Now I don't do that. I don't add to losers But selling a winner and adding to losers, which is like the natural thing to do, is like pulling out your flowers and watering the weeds And having a systematic strategy that doesn't do that for me personally is hugely benefial. I'm the same way. I couldot hold a stock for five hundred percent. I sent you a quote yesterday Howard Marks was like, there's two reasons you sell a stock because they go up and because go down because they go down. You sell and they're up because you worry. that they're going to go back And you sell the down because you they're going to go down even further. Exactly. I mean that's why Because momentum it's a totally behavioral strategy, and that's why there's not a lot of money in these strategies to begin with. It's way easier to understand a value strategy I'm buying A dollar for fifty cents or sixty cents. That's easy to understand. Momentum is not easy to understand like that. I' want to say Claude by far is the best stock market analyst there is for these LOFs. And it's not even close. So I take I'll take the year to date holdings for the S and P five hundred And I will upload them to Claud and say, what's going on here? And it'll give me a sector breakdown, a stock breakdown. it's actually pretty unbelievable So this brings us to what Ken Griffin said of the weekend Like the work that I just described here that I did over the weekend which took me all of, I don't know, Like I was start to finish between reading the article and getting this in ten minutes That's a job That might be multiple people's jobs. So Ken Griffin was talking about this, um, How this is going to impact financial services and I want to play this and get your reaction, Ben reallyally interesting to watch blunt work that we would usually do with people with master's and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months, being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days So these are not These are not mid tiered white collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high skilled jobs being pick a word being automated by AenKI And I gott to tell you, I went home one Friday actually mairly depressed by this. because you could just see how this was going to have such dramatic impact on society. ike And when you witness it in your own four walls, when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks Wow, like That's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls Thoughts I did listen to this. I agree with him. It's kind of scary and depressing in a ways. The biggest question I have is it Is AI doing jobs or is it doing tasks And I think that's a big distinction D that's it's That's a job What I just did over the weekend and what he is describing. And to his point, that's not that's not like entry level jobs. I mean, you know, maybe that's something I was doing was So it it is certainly part scary and depressing I mean, it really is And of course, it's also super exciting. So what will put more analysts out of work, AI or index funds? Did Jack Bogl do it or did AI going to do it? Because you could make the case that index funds a figer impact. fire and gasoline Yes, I agree There is a lot of scary stuff with this. and Yet the unemploy rate is still four and a half percent Dude, we're so early. So to that point.old say What's the time, Sam? twenty twenty seven before you can't see that anymore So Um, Gavin Baker. did a he was at the Sone confference talking about this and It's twenty five minutes and I highly, highly didn't mind it I'tisten to this yet but I he a bunch people say it's ye Yeah worth. He makes you feel way better about the bubble, about like He makes whatever, just just listen to it Um, but Gavin said basis points of the population are using these models And there is a shortage of compute What happens when it's five percent So he was saying like that it can't be a bubble if the demand outstrips the supply. Is Yeahah, he's basically saying like this was his case for smoother for longer Dude, it is so early I was at a party a couple weeks ago for like a March Madness party and we were talking about, you know, how much do you actually use AI in your jobs? And I was talking about how I switch between Claud and Gemini and Chad GPT depending on what I'm doing. This one guy was like, what's Gemini I've never heard that before So don that's most people though. Of course. peopleon't donon't tell me about the unemployment rate today. And I'm not predicting ten percent or anything like that To look at the unemployment rate today and say AI is not disruptive is joke you're better Do you If you looked at the numbers of what's happening and this is still going on after it's been out for threeree or four years now. Wouldn't you be surprised that the unemployment is still as low as it is?ven Given all the leaps for that we've had Yes. It was invented Th or four years ago It has only just begun then. Here hereere's the one thing that I think is impossible to predict in all of this. So Alechantchuitz put this This is incredible. AI is getting booed out of the stadium at and any commencement address as mentioned. So Er Smidt did a commencement speech at Arizona And anytime you mentioned AI, the students booed. I love it. AI is a villain And so the question is, What are the political ramifications And like our company is going to get penalized if we we have to tax the robots If not if for nothing else to make us feel like we're doing something. Yes Because I don't know that anything can stop this can slow this down becausecause I think if you just look at what happened sentiment wise after two thousand eight, none of those bankers went to jail, which is still beyond imagination from I don't know how that how no one went to jail. You draw You can draw theirect line from that. The lack of ramifications to where we are today Definitely. So My question is like arere politicians actually going to do something about it? Will companies be penalized if they have a mass layoff because of AI? Will there de? And will you say, hey, your company gets a lower tax rate. If you keep hiring people and don't lay them off because of AI, like I don't you don't you can't see because some people just like, you know what? There's no use fighting it. It's inevitable. But I also think you can't predict what the political ramifications of this are going to be because people are people hate this so much So that that is a clear, you know, I know we keep talking this that is a scary part All right, potentially exciting part of it, although maybe be scary too So Brett Atcock, the founder of a humanoid robots company called is name of' this company? h dang ith it doesn't I robot So if they have been live streaming robot sorting packages. They said our original goal was an eight hour run We wanted to run nonstop and fully autonomous. Since then we made the decision to keep the party going. We're now over forty eight hours of non stop autonomous operation without a failure to perform the use case. This is uncharted territory So the task is small package sorting The robot detects the barcode, picks up the package, and reorients its barcode faceed down onto the conveyor Humans average around three seconds per package, The robot is now around human parity I think it's still running. Manoman So this is one of those things that I think this is a double edged sword of boy, this is scary. We'reots taking our jobs, but I also think I think we need robots in this country. So you talk about Derek podcast about the fertility crisis. We're not we're not having we're not replacing enough if a couple has one child There's the replacement is not there for humans. So like eventually, population is going to decline We have we're going to need robots to help take care of people in services and Were we We have to have them. Well Otherwise, this whole thing falls apart. looks they're coming. We were talking about hang on, is a baby wouldould a baby boom be the most surprising thing in the last next twenty years if we had a baby, but would that be the most surpring thing that could possibly God. Imagine AI and robots make the world like this Nirvana state and everybody just has free time to procreate and replenish the population? Hilarious Wanburn U All right, a couple of weeks ago, we were talking about, there was an article in the journal. Was it Greg who we lik, But like he was making the I think I think he was making the contontrarian case that an AI slowdown would actually be fine No, wouldn't. So Tors and Slock showed AI is penetrating every corner financial markets. What began as an equity market phenomenon has become a capital markets wide transformation AI now accounts for nearly half of all investment grade issuance eighty seven percent of VC funding and a growing share of high yield underscoring how deeply the AI investment cycle is penetrated every corner finance. if this stops The music stop. Can I just say though that we have moved the goal posts a lot on this because at first it was, no, this is never going to work. and now it's like, oh, now it's working too well So I think we've moved the goal post in some ways. So this is better than the alternative of We spent all this money and nothing happened the The the top line numbers that are being reported out of ananthropic are like nothing we've ever ever seen before and and in when was the Max seven and the I trade really in the shter? It was when Sam Alaltan one of the podcasts was that the fall? I can't remember this It was over the fall I's about right and All of these names got hit and Oracle was at the center, because like, wait a minute Um, I don't think Open AI's five year three hundred billion dollars commitment to Oracle is going to come to fruition And now that has turned dramatically. bothoth Oracle shares and the entire narrative because the fundamentals are Proving every doubt or wrong So I can't liiving in like San Francisco in that area has to be so trippy because everyone who talks about this stuff is talking about the world changing at the fastest pace in history If you hear the tech bros go on podcast and talk about this stuff They're, you know, we talk about AI and what it's going to do. They talk about it like it's the the, you know Nirvana is already here. It's also the wealth pie. So this DedDy on Twitter post, he said the vibes in SF feel feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is worse than I've ever seen. So we said Over the last five years, a group of, say, ten thousand people at Anthropic, open ee Nvidia H h retirement wealth of above twenty million dollars based on their shares in the company Everyone outside of that group feels like they can work their well paying jobs less than five hundred thousand for their whole life and never get there worse yet layos are in full swing, but this is funny. He goes to all these different people and why they're miserable because of this wealth. And one of them is like Good luck competing with someone from Anthropic who just catch out their shares to buy a house Right? But he said, the rich aren't particularly happy either No one is hing tears for them those who have made it Exience a profound lack of purpose Some have gone from less than one hundred fifty thousand dollars to fifty million dollars in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life upside down He said, someome of them mescape to New York to live life, others start companies just because, toin status points, they never imaginine by age thirty they'd be set. I once asked a post economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the company and they said, thenen do what? Right now, everyone wants to talk to me. If I sell, I will only have money that just it has to be a Dystopian weird kind of place to live is what I'm saying. There's a lot of people donuntking on this and rightfully so I understand the dunks completely. There's he's totally on point. He's rightight. So from the outside looking in, that whole pocket of life is bizarre world There is more to life Th this But if you are inside of that life and that is your life All of the human emotions that he's describing are human You need One of the things that I find so incredibly satisfying and lucky about my path is that I hit rock bottom. I was unemployed for a long time and I had no career prospects. And things were going incredibly bad for me. I had a fifteen year Ram. to get to the point where I am today, which I never thought I would get to And it has been, I still cannot believe The journey that I've been on and how fucking lucky I am And I think about it every second of every day for the most part. I wanted to talk about if that happened, if that happened to me overnight Like yeah, they're totallyrewed out, they totally messed up. Without the struggle and without like the gradual improvements and now I can do this and now I can do that and now I can do this and do this for my family and that If that just happens overnight It breaks your brain then and then living in society with your friends and your neighbors when everything is so public You become like ouck that guy Think about if you joined openpen Eye two years later And you're more talented than someone else who joined two years before you, but they're ten times richer than you Just because they happen to join the company before you Is it because they that scrambles anybody's emotional? Is it because they're smarter than you or they're better than you or they're harder wor than you? Maybe not. they might have just got lucky and timed it right. And so Clooney and John Hamm have talk about how they are happy that they found fame in their like later thirties and they struggled for a while before to get there. because they're like if I would have got it earlier, I would have been so screwed up And sometimes waiting is so I agree the perspective thing I just think it's u I mean, again, imagine trying to compete for a house in that area When these people who just got all these shares go, I don't care. I'm buying whatever house I can. I don't care if I pay more. I got ten million dollars. A couple of weeks ago, we were talking about the Th Kings book or not the three Kings, whatever it was called with Coppola and Spielberg and George Lucas And they each said when they made their monster monster hits they were depressed afterwards because yes That was the thing that pulled out of the Spielberg thing. that was like, oh my gosh. beinging on top of the mountain is not climbing the mountain And that's like the whole purpose of life. But he also talked about how Spielberg started working with David Gein, and David Gffin was a billionaire. Spielberg at that time was only worth six hundred million dollars. And he's like looking up This is the guy who' created the best some of the best movies in history And he's like, whyy don't I have a billion dollars? It's it's's a natural human emotion. So you can't you just it just If you, the listener, if anybody was in these shoes, these people are all human beings. This is just what happens. Yes. but I agree with. I'm very happy. I I think everybody reading this is like God that I'm not that's not my life. because that sounds miserable But you're right. I do think the one thing The way that you break that cycle is just gratitude Like I'm better off than I was before. I don't care if I'm not better off than that person. I'm better off than I was than I ever thought possible. That's hard ten years ago. That's hard. But yeah that is the way. All right. I want to talk about a discussion ahead at the post office. So it about inflation. So I've been there's a post office right next to my office, essentially And I'm sending out books to people. I'm sending out sign copies of my book. And I went there two or three times in one week because I had this big batch of books And the guy at the post is this really large guy like muscular, like built, you know, kind of guy. H name is Cletus Okay. so I get to talk him a little bit. He goes Why do you keep sending out some many books man? becausecause you have to tell what are you seing out its book said are you an author or something? I said, I I wrote book said, what are you writing a b about? I said Well, it's about investing in markets and He said, let me ask you something You you still like Mike R here. He goes, What do you think about everything that's going on right now And I was like, What do you mean? G keep going And he's like, just He's like are you familiar with Wimar Germany Hyperinflation people u Karion Wheelbarrowsull cash down the street He's like, I of think that's where we're heading I said Okay I just You should have given a signed copy of your book and said I read this What I told him is, all right, man, listen, I don't want to like debate you on this. this is a very articulate guy I think he went down kind of a crypto rabbit hole on this stuff And I said, I'll tell you Ne time I come in with the next back of book books, I'm going to give you a copy and I want you to read it and let me know what you think Here's my thinking on this I think having skky high inflation this decade was one of the most surprising psychological outcomes. I totally underestimated what it would do to people And I think for him, it was all about inflation and how he's like inflation is basically ruining the country and I think we've all been reading and writing about behavior psychology for Ten years now or something I was I underappreciated the psychological impact of inflation on people. It was a dizzy Yes. And and I think that's going to Remember we talked about like what the what is the long lasting impact of the COVID pandemic going to be? because the great depression cause all these depression babies who wouldn't save or who save too much and wouldn't spend their frugal or whatever Um The outcome of the COVD pandemic is whatever, however long the sentiment from high inflation lasts. I think it's going to be a heav a longer tle than most people realize. All right, this this is interesting Julian Klamochko tweeted a chart of Bitcoin and software going back to twenty twenty one. and Some of these charts are hard too eyeball when you squeeze the Y axes and make them different So I put it into Y charts and Um I stack the trarts and yeah, they do look directionally the same. Not the same at all points in time, but just eyeball this They look like they moveved together now 's pretty wild that it goes that far back. That's a really long time for the correlation, right? Yeah. I mean, it's it's it's, you know, again, if you zoom in on different periods of time Mbe they diverge a little bit, but Zoom out and they sure look like the same chart. All right, anyway He said so it's Bitcoin and software, IGV Digital gold Monetary hedge, decentralization global liquidity, all the question marks censor res censorship resistance portfolio diversification. Turns out, Bitcoin was just a software stock. I wonder what it would look like in the twenty seventeen to twenty twenty one era though Because one of the things that people talk about with bonds and stocks People are saying now that bonds are broken because they're more correlated with stocks But I think in a diversified asset You want something that's going to change its stripes and sometimes it's correlated with this asset and sometimes it's not Soventually, Bitcoin won't be correlated softwareock anymore. It itll be correlated with something else. You would think. But in twenty seventeen, Bitcoin was not an asset class. likeike it was what was the market cap? It was, you know it was tiny That's Anyway, not say this will forever and always be the thing, but I just said, h, is it really It's really that simple that I really own that much software All right, I't talk about the biggestequality wealth inequality of this decade, what I think it is I remember where I pulled this from, it's the economic Innoation group. They look at the new homeowner penalty So it's existing homeowners, the proportion of their income that they spend on housing costs versus people who are now buying new homeowners Existing homeowners are basically the lowest they've been since nineteen ninety What is what is Housing cost as a percentage of income? Got it. Okaykay. So if you owned a home, you refinananceced into a three percent mortgage Your housing costs as a percent of your income are about as low as they've been over the last How many years has it been? It's been twelve years since nineteen ninety, right s fifteen years. O last, whatever, thirty five years. Letesss new homeowners is has just shot up like a rocket and paying way more This is a big source of wealth inequality. And we keep asking, whereere's all the money coming from? Where's all the money coming from that's going into all this stuff Gess who has more disposable income People who owned a home with a wayow lower price in a low mortgage rate Think about how much more disposable income those households have. and that's a big proportion of the country So this is this is what we were just talking about earlier with gratitude and whatever I had a thought and this's not something that I spent a lot of time thinking about but I'm a new homeowner And my friend who lives across the street I probably paid I don't know, Th times what this has what he paid for his h Whenateever he bought it And I'm like, that MFR All right, this is, you know, but I know' I'm position you're in the new homeer thing. Yeah, I'm in no position to complain it I'm not. right. Do Sck And it is a huge source of like the shaped economy is the new homeowner versus the existing homeowner huge You're right Yeah, because there's people now who are moving into neighborhoods or like five times richer Th other people who live there But their housing costs are way higher It's weird R It's definitely weird. It's a bizarre thing. All right, I want to give a publicv service announcement. I'm sure we've spoken about this at some point over the course of the show There was a large demand for these basasically publicly traded companies that were privately held So SpaceX. Opye anthropic Ander like all these giant names And the way that investors would access them was with something called a special purpose vehicle and There were special purpose vehicles inside of specialurpose vehicles. it was like a Russian doll where you don't really know who this primary source of liquidity was becausecause the companies have in some cases in many cases No oversight into who's selling what shares to who So imagine you thought that you were a shareholder in open AI and you're like or spaceX and you're like looking at your chops to find out that it goes public and you don't even own the stock Could you imagine the nightmare fuel? So anyway For people that are thinking or working with an advice or asking somebody, hey, can you get me in Just be very, very careful. Well, the story from the Wall Street Journal says people are freaking out. It's like realizing you don't have the title of your home as the market rips higher Scary Scary, scary Uh, this is also scary Blue Owl has seen inflows at this from the FT Blue Owl has seen inflows at its flagship credit investment fund for retail investors all but dry up. The group's near twenty billion dollars blue Allle credit income fund reported just twenty six million dollars and new investments on may first about a fifty percent decline from the prior month and a ninety five percent decrease from this time of year ago So at this time last year, the fund attracted nearly five hundred million dollars a month From five hundred million dollars a month to what did it say twenty six Oh Can you imagine being an advisor trying to talkuck your clients in the bllue owl right now though, with all the headlines Yeah, that's that's got to be a special group of advisors All right I got I got a personal finance question for you. G. So I was home in Trev City this weekend for soc tournament's where my parents live in Northern, Michigan. I'll more on that later U. It gets me every time. I go in the bathroom and wash my hands and I go to the soap dispenser And it's soapy water that comes out And my father When the soap gets to the end and there's a little soap left to keep it going, he fills it with water. Okay. My dad did not grow up with a lot. He grew up a tiny house with four other siblings. I look at the house now and I go, how do they have five kids in there? Like He did not come from a not even you know, I would even call it like middle class back, right? So he came from that a lot. He has those frugal that frugal minds that still is with him And some of these things, Im like dad. You can afford this stuff. Why don't for him, it's not like a money thing. It's a princial thing So I was thinking, like, what's something in your life that you're still becauseuse you can' some things you just out of principle, you go, no, I'm going to cheap on this So what are you still cheat on? Beause I was thking this I'm like What doesam cheep on? So I went the other way. I grew up, u I'm not even gonna to pretend that there was poverty because it definitely wasn't. But I had restrictions, like I remember my mother saying that I couldn't order like, chicken parm at the diner and that like sort of scubbed brain a bit I was like, why not Why can' I just get chicken parment? It was like just becausecause it's twenty dollars. Yeah. For me, we' go to Rb's I'd have to get junior R speat. but I want a regular roast speat U So I went the other way. like my limitations in terms of what I could do buy as a child or my parents could afford Cuse me to like, overspend So I am like the opposite of frrugal. I don't and It's not because I' making money now. L even when I made a lot less, I just didn't care about saving. So I was always a natural overspender. But I'm sure there are things that I am cheap about L for me, for instance, I'm looking my leases up in my exore. I' Ford Eplore. I'm looking at new SEVs now and I'm looking at the prices and B big time sticker shock for me. I think I will never be able to buy luxury vehicle I can afford it. I don't think I ever I will never Principally, I will never because I'm an A to B guy as far as vehicles go I think I will never be like one of those people that could spend a ton of money on a car I just my my internally won't allow me to do it. Oh Yeah, no, I get it The sticker shock is something. For me, I would say it's probably take out food Now I still I've gotten over it, but like it still pisses me off. I still give Robin a hard time When she gets a salad for twenty seven dollars. I'm like, are you Hitt me And she'll always be like, why is this a thing? Because it's ridicous. It's a salad. But I think this is one of the reasons that fire people get so much flack from everyone else because that thing with my dad, having like that, you know, growing up, his parents were the depression era people It stands out more if you're like a fire person now because more people are were cheap like that in the past, cheap for whatever you want to say And now you stand out if you're that way because not many people are anymore prevalent as it once was Any All right, Ben, I got I have another bone to pick with Ale if you could believe it or not I have a I have speakers in my backyard I have to go into the Sonos app to change the volume I can't I can't use the volume on my phone to control the speaker the speaker volume Is that some shit? That's a Sono's problem, not an apppple problem D't blame Apple for that Apple box it, wait, tell me why. Because the Sonos app is awful. I have Sonos as well. It's terrible. That's a Son's problem, not an Apple problem. I'm pretty sure that Apple will not allow you to do it I don't know. I think the Sonos app is just really they made a change like two years ago and it pissed everyone off because it stopped working All, I'm mean I' I'm a new tooto so I have a love hate relationship with youth sports. I've talked about it here before The whole like I have some friends who we have both my daughters in club soccer and they travel a little bit and my friends Like talk about it, like I'm an idiot likeike I can'tve anyone would ever do that. Like at like age seven, these kids have started doing tryouts, which seems like not even fair. Like whyy do we have to have like you're on the best team and you're on the second best team? you're in the third best team, which is actually the worst like And then you have to travel to these places and there's games all weekends and like we went to we went to Turning in Trever City this weekend thirty five soccer field all going on at once There's thirty five, thirty five fields.. There's one road that goes into this place to park. So the parking was an absolute nightmare. We're dealing with Lightning delays and Uh rain And you know, it then it got hot and it's like And we, you know, we travel two and hal hours to get there and it's like, why why do we do this? And then my little princess, Kate. eightight years old just turned nine And the very first game was really close. We were down two to nothing then we scored and tied two to two. And you know, the only people watching these games are of course parents and grandparents. There's twenty people insideideles. And my daughter kicked in the winning goal Basically as time expired, which doesn't happen in Soachrom, she's not the star player you know? she's not the one that like scores other goals. And I saw the smile on her face and that was like, oh, this is why we do it. This is when it clicks, like, o The look on her face, like I don't care if they win lose I don't if they score they'tore I care that they try hard. But when they're happy, that's why you do it because they're so happy. It was like the cate like she scored, and then he blew to us like, that's game. And it was like usually don't have a buzzer beatater socer you And then they went out and won the championship for their thing. And like the smile on her face was like, oh This is why we do this it makes kid smile I still want to go That's great. Uh Anyway That's great recomm by the way I got a few emails The reason so the reason I had a few people email me about me leaving the parents the fly football chat They said, Michael, just mute your phone. I said, Hey, are we not listening? I muted the conversation. Apparently, if there are non iPhone users in the group chat They sneak through and ding Andrew people. So did you the did you leave the chat Of course I love the chat. Okay Did Robin give you flack about it I can' sa how you left the chat No, no, no. Well people were P peopleople were making fun of me in the chat So Rob looks like I'm so embarrassed I think you look come out looking cool on that though. Okay. All right. recommendations U Speaking of like the whole gratitude thing, I've got two I think I listened to the best podcasts of the year this week And I hear many people talk about it. Ted Danson and Woody Harlson have a podcast called B everyone. Yes, isn't that crazy? Whatoodyarrson barely comes on. but Ted Dancec in interviews celebr And so there was a podcast this week with Ted Danson, Woody Harrelson, and Harrison Ford. Oh and Oh my God. it was Awesome. What's the name of the show where everybody knows your name, I think. Everybody knows something like that. I'm going to find it right now. I don't know that maybe he's been on them before. I don't think I've ever heard Harris Ford on a podcast before and As a guy who's quite possibly the biggest actor of the past Arguably over the past fifty years mayaybe one of the most important of the past fifty years. He you've seen him on interviews before. he's very self deprecated. He hates talking about himself. He hates talking about movies Um But he was with two other, you know, really big actors talalking about the craft. And I think Harrison Ford might be the coolest guy alive. I can't wait to listen to it. It is and like him, he's He drops F bombs a lot, which is kind of funny. He sounds a guy that youd just love to have a beer with, but H whole thing is he hates talk about himself. He can have the biggest ego in the world But he talks about how grateful he is for like and how lucky he was. he was lucky. He was Brad Pitt in onnce Uon Time Hollywood Yeah. he was a carpenter. He was the guy building celebrities houses on the roof smoking a cigarette looking all cool with a shirt off. Yes. theseese are one of the coolest guys ever. Yes, easily. And so but has this he has this aura of gratitude. It's like that's how you find happiness with success as you have gratitude. So the other one I'm watching is Mart Marty life is short on Netflix. So it's a Martin Sort document So I've now seen the John Candy one recently. Steve Martin had a great documentary, and all these kind of intersect because they knew each other And the Martin short one on Netlix it's not that long. It's an hour and forty minutes. And same thing he is a very grateful guy for what he has and all the success he has. and he seems like well grounded and it's great, but just the old stories of Eugene Levy and Martin Short and Dan Ackrod and John Candy and Katherine O'Hara Gilda Radner All these people coming together at the same time in their twenties to create comedy It's anyway, really like I've read his book before and I just really like his outlook on life Very cool for those guys Um, all right, I was Hesitants to recommend the show because it is extraordinarily dark All right, it is not an uplifting show And it's quite graphic. It's called Half Man. It's on HBO. It's a mini series. But you think I would like it I'm pretty sure you would like it. It's by this guy Richard Gad, who did Baby Rindeer, which is a phenomenon. I didn't see that show never heard of it. Here's a description When Nil's estrange brother, Ruben, shows up at his wedding It leads to an explosion of violence that catapults us back through our lives eighties to the present day And it is intense. it's something Okay, but it's a mini series. sixix episodes sixpisodes. You can sign up for that. It's a strong That's a strongre for me, but Yeah, it's graphic. Very graphic All right, stock market is quick. Stock market' down again We could use a correction. Yeah. I always say this. We could though. Well, I don't say we could use a correction when we're in one That's true When we're in correction, I say, please stop. this isn't fun. All right, Aimal sppirits at other compompoundNews d. com dot Thank you for the emails. Thankk you for listening. We'll see you next time