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Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
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The Aftermath and Final Theories
From The Thief, the Jewels, and the Dublin Castle Conspiracy — Jun 19, 2026
The Thief, the Jewels, and the Dublin Castle Conspiracy — Jun 19, 2026 — starts at 0:00
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ODO O in Dublin Castle nineteen oh three The seat of Government in Ireland. then still ruled by Britain Workmen are dragging a heavy safe across a hallway It's three feet wide, made from sturdy steel by the prestigious Ratner Company truth Al so it says Inside the safe the Irish crrown jewels exquisitely crafted, ostentatiously made from diamonds emeralds and rubies The King of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland came to Ireland for some grand ceremonial occasion These jewels would be worn They were worth in today's money, several million dollars The workers are heaving the safe towards the strong room they've just built. An extra layer of protection for the safe and the jewels along with various other valuables and documents. the walls to the strong room are thick and reinforced door is made from steel, twoo tons of it Now timee to put the safe in the strong room The safe doesn't through the doorway at least this way round. Let's try Swiveling at ninety degrees. Not that way either Maybe at an angle Wow This is embarrassing. The plans for the strong room are unfolded and with some trepidation, the door is measured It's exactly the width it's supposed to be. No mistake there Apparently, nobody thought to measure the safe before drawing up the plans or what might have been even more sensible, to put the safe in the space that would become the strong room and build the walls around it The man in charge Sir Arthur Vickers considers his options down a wall And they've only just put them up They could buy a narrower safe. they've already spent a fortune on this refurbishment Maybe they could just leave the safe in another room The library. Over the hallway from the strong room The safe is thief proof after all. And the only people who come into this part of the castle are the colleagues and friends of Sir Arthur Vickers Sir Arthur Vickers has some grand titles He's the ulster King of Ams, the registrar and knight attendant of the most illustrious orrder of Staint Patrick Two years after the strong room door debarkle in nineteen oh five Vicers is making some amendments to the statute of the Order of Stt Patrick which formally sets out the responsibilities of his role Among them to ensure the crown jewels are deposited for safekeeping in a steel safe in the strongroom. been written when the Stong rooom was being built The safe is still very much kncked in the strong room So Mn't it be wise to strike out those words from his actual job description neede He decides Be fine Two years after that, in nineteen oh seven You can probably guess what happens then I'm Tim Harford Listening Autionary tales. Arthur Vickers was fascinated by the genealogy of aristocratic Irish families An arcane subject to find fascinating, perhaps, but his enthusiasm landed him a comfortable job as Ulster, King of arms Kight attendant and registrar of the Order of St. Patrick Vicars reported directly to his Majesty the King And the job was his for life Provided he didn't do anything stupid enough to force the king to reconsider. The salary wasn't huge, but enough to allow Vicars to lease a grand looking townhouse An employer cook coachman And a man servant At forty four years old, Vickers was very much the established bachelor is to say Vickers was widely rumored to be gay He also had a housemate. Another bachelor although the young man spent a lot of time in London on business Because job He was in charge of tracing family trees and deciding who qualified for what privileges in the labyrinthine world of Irish gentry the lords and ladies, Els and barons who was merely an honorable who got to be a right honorable or are most honorable Wh was allowed to use a coronet on their family's heraldic crest Stuff The Vicars was deeply conscious of what distinguished her knight of the Garter Kight of the Order of the bath or a knight commander of the Royal Victorian Order Vcausews himself I'm proud of it When the king visited the Lord lieieutenant of Ireland, who governed on Britain's behalf It was Vicers who made sure all the ceremonial aspects of the visit ran smoothly though and Of course He had to make sure that the crown jewels were kept in a steel safe in the strong room It doesn't sound too onerous And Vicars rarely rolled up at his suite of rooms in Dublin Castle before eleven AM Those rooms included his own office a strong room and the library That's where the safe was The library also served as an anttechamber for visitors So people were often in and out Not ideal for a room containing the crown jewels Office messenger, Mr. Styvey sat right outside in the hallway admittedly Styvy couldn't actually see the safe from where he sat or one of the two doors into the library. and he wasn't always there stillill be fine The first sign of trouble. came on a Wednesday in july nineteen oh seven One week. King was due to visit, on an important matter investing a new lord as a knight of St. Patrick It was the kind of occasion for which vicars had to be on top of all the minute such as making sure the engraving was up to date on the gold collars worn by the knights of the Order of Stt Patrick Vickers had a lot on his mind. Vivicus arrived at his usual leisurely hour and was accosted by a worried Mr. Styvey I've been talking to the cleaning lady When she'd arrived that morning, she was always the first She'd found that the front door into the office building hadn't been locked Vicers absently replied Did she Yes saidid Stiffie But Vicers did not appear concerned. Styvy was non plused he'd expected his boss to alert the police and investigate if anything had been taken Styvey was an ex Navy man who understood chains of command He told his boss It was up to the boss to decide what if anything to do with that information Three days later, four days before the king's visit Cleaning lady had an even bigger shock This time She arrived to find that the huge steel door to the strong room was hanging open onnce again, She informed Stvy When Vicas turned up, Styvy passed on the alarming news Or at least Styvy thought it was alarming. Vicars though, seem distracted Is that so He said, and went straight into his office. It was Saturday. Styvy always left early on a Saturday. But not before checking if Fickers had any last job that needed doing Can you put this in the safe says Vicas. He hands Stvevy one of the newly engraved golden collars of the Order of St. Patrick just received back from a local jeweler He also hands him the key to the safe Styvy is surprised. He's never before been asked to open the safe He goes into the library slides the key into the lock tries to turn it. It doesn't move. ches the other way. Now the key turns. pulls the handle The door doesn't open. He understands hasn't just Unlock the safe He just locked it Ivy rushes back to tell Vickars that the safe had been unlocked This time, Vickers pays attention What do you mean Vickers hurries to the safe, unlocks it, and pulls the door open God She says They're gone The jewels are gone When the police arrive to investigate, Vickas tells them he has no idea how this could have happened. He never lets the keys out of sight except when they're in his coat pocket. He takes his coat off and leaves it somewhere All that one time he forgot his keys at home and his coachman brought them in for him He doesn't mention what's later reported to have happened one night a few months earlier. at one of the after hours parties he sometimes threw in his office for other young men Vickers passed out drunk One of the men proposed a practical joke took Vickar's keys from his pocket Remove the crown jewels from the safe and put the keys back The next morning hung over Vicars received a parcel through the post opened it to find To his astonishment Found jels No, he doesn't mention that the police But he does say Hopefully I would not be a bit surprised that they would be returned to my house by parcel post tomorrow morning Well Maybe, Sir Atha. Maybe Portionary tales would be back the brake Small businesses are the pulse of every community. 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Unlock the savings today at boostMobile d. com slash unlock. basased on average annualingle payment ofTs prising in teamb customers compared to tw mons on theoost mob unlimitedireless plan of juary twenty six. before offer dailsisitoo mobileot Sir Arthur Vickers was widely rumored to be gay notot that gay had its current meaning In nineteen oh seven, even the word homosexual wasn't widely used Whatever you called it, consensual sex between adult men was very much against the law A generation earlier in eighteen eighty four, Arthur's own workplace had been the center of the Dublin Castle scandal. a senior official and Amy captain were among a group of men who stood criminal trial for their homosexual activities The scandal rock British administration Dublin Castle was portrayed as a hotbed of this Terrible vice This crime that was loathsome, impure and revolting, the lowest depth of detestable depravity. A decade later in eighteen ninety five The celebrated Irish playwright, Oscar Wilde was convicted in London Gross indecency and sentenced to two years hard labour And yet Arthur Vickers. shared his house with another man who was well known to be gay He employed servants who as servants do knew exactly what was happening Sir Arthur frequently held after work drinks in his office with more gay men. Wasn't he taking a terrible risk Well Yes and no the sociologist Aarry Adot points out that homosexuality norms were only rarely and reluctantly enforced many years before Oscar Wilde's trial It was common knowledge that he was gay He hardly tried to hide it with his flamboyant dress and Green Carnation, Boutonniere. public flirting. xing lyrical about male beauty and socratic love Yet his plays were wildly popular and he moved in the most fashionable high society circles As Ary Adot says, onn the face of it That's a puz Why would audiences and authorities accommodate those who are widely known to commit a transgression Demed repulsive by society Ciminal by law Allow me to set that puzzle aside for later And invite you first to spend some time with one of Oscar Wild's great friends Lord Ronald Cower. An inspiration for Wilde's character, Lord Henry Woodon in his novel Dorian Gray Lord Ronald Gower made some attempt to be discreet about his homosexuality by legally adopting his much younger lover give them an ostensible reason for living together at his country house Gower and his adopted son through weekend partivies for his close friends Mostly men though A wealthy widow was also a much loved fixture Lord Ronald Gower was a sculptor. He labored for twelve years on an installation that still overlooks the river in Stratford upon Avon bronze sculptures of William Shakespeare four of his major characters Gaower didn't get paid for this, he financed it himself He could do that because he was an aristocrat veryery rich at least He was very rich. he met Frank Shackleton Francis Frank tone brother of the famous Antarctic explorer, Sir Ernest Chackleton thirty years younger than Gaa. was an Irishman who spent a lot of time in London He did something finance related in the city and fquented all the fashionable London clubs One who knew him described Sackleton as Extremely good looking and extremely depraved. Shackleton became part of Lord Gower's intimate circle a regular at his weekend parties Gower became so close to Shackleton that he bestowed upon him Nickname My old foole In nineteen oh seven, Gower's investment manager died. He asked his old foole to take over Why not Young Shackleton, it seemed, was good at business Gower's wealthy widow friend also entrusted Shackleton with her money She had taken a shine to him Dear little Francis. She writes in one letter You are very dear to me. She later said she thought she and Shackleton enjoyed a relationship Kin to mother and son Much of their money many millions in today's terms was invested in railway shares It gave a steady income Shackleton said about the rise of the motor car They trusted Shackleton to invest in something better instead Gower found money matters tedious, so he gave Shackleton power of attorney That way he wouldn't have the hassle of approving every last transaction Frank Shackleton had a secret He'd risked all his own money on a tract of land in Mexico He was sure it had the resources to make him rich, but it needed more upfront investment more than Shackleton himself could raise He put Gowers and the widow's money into an elaborate scheme of worthless shell companies To try to convince his bank and brokers to keep extending his credit underwriting his risks Lord Gower had no idea he was bankrolling Shackleton's Mexican adventure. Until in nineteen ten, he received a summons for unpaid debts Shackleton had mortgaged Gower's properties. intercepting G's mail to stop him finding out Soon after, Shackleton's brokers pulled the plug Gower's adopted son and wealthy widow friend to Shackleton's bankruptcy hearings They'd expected contrition They were in for a shock. Shackleton walked up to them and grinned ' son was furious. He yelled at Chackleton. Thief. Anyone could sue Shackleton for defrauding them. He skipped the country Frank Shackleton then Suave Flausible secretly desperate for money utterly without moral scruples One other thing about Shackleton Back in nineteen oh seven He used to split his time between London Dublin where he shared the lease on a grand looking townhouse with his good friend Sir Arthur Vickers Sir Arthur Vickers waited anxiously for the arrival of the Parcel post Alas, it did not contain the Irish crown jewels The local police continued their investigation They asked Vicers, when was the last time he'd opened the safe Just over three weeks earlier, he worked out The jewels could have been taken at any point in that time. Police brought in experts to examine the locks on the safe and the strong room door They said the locks had been picked tellell tale scratches There were none That meant they'd been opened with a key Only one man possess the original keys to the safe Sir Arthur Vickers There are two ways one might make a copy of a key You could quickly make a wax impression of the original or you could take the original to a locksmith and have them take their time about it If the safe had been opened by the kind of crude copy you might get from a wax impression, there'd again be telltale signs. that went on Whoever had opened the safe had either used an original key or at some point had gained possession of an original for long enough to make a perfect copy. Who might that be Vickers thoughted for a moment and unwisely suggested his coachman After all, that one time he did have access to the keys when Vicers forgot them at home Police interrogated the coachman. who was outraged that his boss had accused him. they found nothing to suggest the coachman had done it. But the coachman did tell them lots of interesting information about the comings and goings of men in the Vicar' Shackleton household The British government sent in an inspector from Scotland Yard. their top Crime invvestigation Agency He quickly zeroed in on another suggestive piece of evidence have been left behind in the safe A ribbon was there had been attached to the crown jewels and would have taken quite some time to remove Several gold collars were also stolen from the safe been wrapped in tissue paper. and stored in boxes and the boxes and tissue paper had been neatly put back Whoever took the jewels clearly hadn't been in a rush This was no opportunistic heist. the inspector Any regular thief would swipe the valuables and get away. Whoever took the jewels was not only close enough to Vickers to have access to his keys but also comfortable enough in Dublin Castle take their time had to be one of Vica's colleagues or friends. Hm Howouse spait Putionaryetails will be back in a moment Small businesses are the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities and drive growth with a widespread presence in communities across the country, chase for business supports small business owners at a local level. That makes it possible for you to connect, learn from each other and grow together. There's a real commitment to seeing small businesses succeed The Chase for businessiness team has knowledge and expertise that span a wide range of financial areas. They can help you make more informed decisions as you navigate the complexities of running your business. They'll help your business grow with individual guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farurther. build a brighter future for your community Learn more at chase. com slash business. Chase for business. M more of what's yours The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices, message and data rates may apply. JP Morgan Chase Bank NA. FDIC copyright twenty twenty six J Morgan Chaseason C company. If you run a business, consider this. seventy seven percent of Americans say our nation's two hundred fiftieth birthday is an appropriate time to celebrate. That gives you the green light to advertise. Let iHart help you advertise around America two hundred fifty. Get started today at iHartadvertising dot comot You're locked into a lot of things you can't change. Weather, traffic. Hey, stay in your lane. Your wireless carrier's latest price hike, but you can unlock a better way. Unlock the savings at Boost Mobile and save up to six hundred dollars hundred a year Switch to the twenty five dollars a month unlimited wireless plan. No contracts, no price hikes, and you keep your phone. Stop being locked into their games. Unlock the savings at boostmobile d. com slash unlock. Based on average annual singleine of payment of AT and T Verizon and TMbile customers compare to twel months on the BoostMbile unlimited wireless plan as of january twenty six. for all off dails visitoostmbileot com The sociologist Ary Adute Pose the puzz Why did London High Society accept and celebrate Oscar Wilde Everyone knew he was gay puzzle has a flip side After years of acceptance Why was Wilde suddenly punished so harshly for something that everyone already knew about In eighteen ninety five The father of one of Wilde's lovers publicly called him a Sodomite. Wilde chose to sue for libel. He thought the allegation would be hard to prove He lost pressure on the government to put Wilde on criminal trial They didn't want to The Prime Minister at the time was thought to be gay Who knew what embarrassing details might come out quietly encouraged Wilde to leave the country in the hope that it would all blow over Wilde refused ended up in prison Aarry Adute used Wilde's case to develop a general theory of scandal It's one thing for a transgression, such as being gay in the eighteen nineties commonly known It's another thing for the transgression to be actively publicized Publicity creates costs for others It makes the authorities look weak if they don't act, but if they do act Perhaps some inconvenient information will end up being exposed A dot defines scandal disisruptive publicity of transgression His theory helps to explain why well connected individuals can behave transgressively for years ways that are hardly a secret then something happens to trigger publicity. And suddenly there's a scandal with fallout that can be hard to control The week before the King's visit to Dublin in nineteen oh seven Shackleton was at a highigh society dinner party in London. So Arthur Vickers came up in conversation Irish crown jewels were mentioned Shackleton chipped in. I should never be surprised to hear that they were stolen someday makes you say that Frank. I have never considered them safe Do you know, just a couple of days later Crown jewels were reported stolen with hindsight Shackleton's remark raised some eyebrows Back in Dublin, Shackleton was happy to expand on what he'd meant At a private inquiry into VCA's security measures He was his usual, urbane and confident self Certainly I could have gone into his room when he was in the bath and taken those keys I could have walked away with that key and replaced it quite easily. Anyone could have done that He explained why he thought security was lax at Dublin Castle Oen he'd gone to visit Sir Arthur and walked into the suite of rooms unnoticed as Mr. Styvey wasn't there No one could then sneak down to the cellar to hide. sift through the contents of the safe at one's leisure overnight. and simply walk out again the next daytime provroided your face was familiar No one would suspect a thing Shackleton added with a disarming smile. I don't want to pile up a case against myself Shackleton himself could be accused He had alibis Before the jewels were stolen, he'd been in England for weeks. As the police investigation continued, Sir Arthur Vickers asked if he could borrow the safe key back. He explained that he'd received an interesting message from a psychic having visions about the crown jewels If she could touch something related to the case, she said she might be able to locate them As Sir Arthur later mentioned that he'd been discussing the case with a relative Another Irish, Sir Arthur. Conan Doyle famous author of the Sherlock Holmes Mysteries great believer in supernatural phenomena The mystic came to Vicar's home held the key entered into a tr state. and announced The missing jewels are hidden neare a tombstep Far from the entrance to an old and disused churchyard. Aion of Clonilla The next day The police accompanied Vickers on the road to Clonscilla a village outside Dublin. ere they passed two churchyards, which might fit the psychic's description and spent the whole day searching in vain any signs of recent digging A newspaper described this line of inquiry as An outrageous display of utter stupidity While the local police were exploring tombstones The inspector from Scotland Yard was writing up his report It said Well we don't know what it said because the report was never made public The inspector never talked about it and no copies exist The jewels were never found Nobody ever brought to trial. Historians still debate who did it Some think the heist was related to politics. The Irish nationalists were pushing for home rule The Unionists determined to keep Ireland ruled from Britain Various motives are conceivable Others incline to the theory that seems most obvious It was Frank Shackleton The man who was later revealed to be in desperate financial straits a moral enough to steal from a wealthy widow who loved him like a son But hold on. Shackleton do it If he was in London Shackleton had a lover an army officer Both were reportedly present at that drinks party in Vicar's office where another man had played the prank of taking Vicar's keys, removing the jewels from the safe and sending them back through parcel post. The lover was well known around Dublin Castle could have attracted no attention. slipping in and out of Vicar rooms and hiding out in the cellar overnight just as Shackleton himself had brazenly described This theory would explain the otherwise curious detail unlocked doors Shackleton was due to travel back to Dublin for the king's visit The theft of the jewels to be discovered while Shackleton was still in London, so he'd be above suspicion When vicers initially failed to notice the theft. The lover slipped back in to unlock the front door Surely, that would precipitate a search that would reveal the jewels were missing didnn't He left a more obvious hint by opening the strongroom door Do we have proof The lover did it. He did confess years later, Although that's perhaps not as conclusive as it might seem, as he was by then, a wreck. an alcoholic in prison for killing a policeman the most seductive evidence for Shackleton's guilt Aarry Adot Theory of scandal Shackleton stood trial for stealing the jewels embarrassing details might come out For a start, the identity of the man at the drinks party played the practical joke of borrowing the jewels He was none other than the son of the Lord Leutenant of Ireland He was widely rumored to be gay The Lord Leutenant didn't want that to be actively publicized was awkward. King was furious about the theft. He wanted answers The Lord Leutenant. explain to the king about Cton and those intimate weekend gatherings at Lord Ronald Gower's house and Who else regularly attended King's brother in law King Edward is reported to have digested the implications. then banged the table and yelled, I will have no scandals For the investigation into the Jewel Heist quietly went nowhere reveals an ironic twist in the theory of scandal. Transgressive behavior can make you vulnerable, as Oscar Wilde discovered But if you're well enough connected those very transgressions can sometimes become a source of protection too to be some kind of consequence and it fell on Sir Arthur Vickers. The King had him sacked for failing to fulfill the very clear duty in his job description ing the jewels in a safe in the strong room. In nineteen ten when Frank Shackleton's brokers informed him they would no longer underwrite his Mexican investments They gave an intriguing reason Owing to a variety of circumstances, of which the death of King Edward was by no means the least King quietly let it be known in the city that he wanted Shackleton to be protected Then once the king died cut him loose. Shackleton fled the country. but was tracked down to Portuguese West Africa What's now Angola and brought back to stand trial for fraud The judge wondered aloud what his nickname Fusele meant. A golfing term, it seemed He dryly remarked that maybe someone who takes another's property would be a better definition
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