The Necessity of Strategic Patience

It's consider this where every day we go deep on one big news story Vice President JD Vance went to Switzerland to hold talks with Iran at a mountainside resort They're trying to move forward the interim agreement to end the war. The question before us now is how much more can we accomplish together? Can we turn over a new leaf? Can we change relations in the Middle East? anently. The high stakes negotiations were strained from the start. Despite what seemed like momentum last week We have an agreement that was signed last night And it's sixty days have to make a deal. otherwise we We will do things that won't make them happy. President Trump had signed a memorandum of understanding after the G seven summit in France. And soon after, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a limited ceasefire that could keep Iran at the negotiating table But the fighting in Lebanon resumed over the weekend The Iranian military said it was closing the Strait of Hormuz in response. Though U. S Central Command has disputed that it's closed. Consider this, Vice President Vance warned that he could only stay in Switzerland for, quote, a day or two But the U. S and Iran remain very far apart. Former Ambassador Ryan Crocker told me that Iran is settling in for the long haul So the U.S needs strategic patience if it wants long term stability in the Middle East HDR, I'm Ping Hang This message comes from Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it at progressive d. com. prorogressive casualty inssurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary, not available in all states This message comes from NPR sponsor Carvana Carvana believes selling your car should be easy. Get a real offer down to the penny, picked up from your driveway. You may keep waiting for a catch, there isn't one. Sell today at cararvana d. comot pickup fees may apply Support for this podcast and the following message come from strawberry. me Be honest, are you happy with your job? Are you stuck in a job you've outgrown or never wanted in the first place Are your reasons for staying really just excuses for not leaving? Let a career coach from strawberry. me help you get unstuck. Discover the benefits of having a dedicated career coach in your corner and get fifty percent off your first coaching session at strawberry. m slash npr. Let's consider this from NPR The talks in Switzerland between the U. S. and Iran to permanently end the war were dubbed the Lake Lucernne summit to understand the hurdles for the negotiators at Lucerne, we turn to Ryan Crocker He's a senior feellllow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former ambassador to six Middle Eastern countries, including Lebanon Ambassador Crocker, welcome. Thank you What is your read on what can come from these talks? I think our expectations need to be firmly under control It's not going to resolve itself in a day or two days or even very likely, not in sixty days So I think the emphasis has to be on stabilizing the ceasefires in the Gulf and in South Lebanon projecting a lot of patience because this is going to be a long haul Yeah I mean, one moment, the president says that the deal is on track, and then the next moment, the Iranians say that they've closed the strait. What is your take on why the back and forth Well, I think it reflects the fundamental volatility of the situation, and it also reflects the the control the Iranians now have over the strait They don't have to close the straight. They can just say they close the straight And that is going to put international shipping on edge. It's probably going to reduce the flow of traffic through the strait. this war has changed a lot of things, none of them for the better as far as the United States is concerned.. So it's a strategy is what you're saying? It is The fighting in Lebanon is a recurring roadblock in achieving some kind of peace Israel and Hezbollah both agreed to, and then they reneged on a ceasefire deal just in the last few days. I'm wondering what negotiators can do if neither of these parties seem interested in a truce Well, the MOU is To reasonably clear on this, it calls in its first paragraph for an immediate and permanent termination of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon And that is unconditional. It means that Hezbollah has to terminate hostilities and it means Israel has to terminate hostilities Obviously, Iran has to deliver Hezbollah and the U. SS has to deliver Israel. This is where it could all fall apart Yeah. Regarding the U.S. role here, JD Vant said before he left yesterday that the U. S would, quote, just have to manage Israel and Lebanon Can the US. just manage them We've got a longong checkered history of dealing with Israel in Lebanon and dealing with adversaries of both the United States and Israel in Lebanon I'm a veteran of the nineteen eighty two Israeli invasion of Lebanon. I was signed to the embassy in Beirut then in which Israel launched a full scale invasion all the way up to Beirut which it occupied brief to eliminate the PLO That's the Palestine Liberation Organization That's right. They did that, but in the process, they helped give birth to Hezbollah, a far more formidable enemy that they have been engaged against on and off since nineteen eighty two. So if we're going to enforce and sustain a truth, It's going to take an awful lot of pressure on Israel And again, Hezbollah and Iran are going to have to reciprocate. Israel is going to be looking for excuses to continue its campaign in South Lebanon And we're going to have to exert an unprecedented amount of pressure to prevent that oth the president and the vice presresident have said that they're putting pressure on Israel to come to a ceasefire in Lebanon. What do you make of that effort? Well, it's been an extraordinary undertaking. I can't think of a previous U. S. administration that has been willing to use that kind of pressure on Israel, particularly in Lebanon whether they will sustain it and how the Israelis will react remain to be seen. The Israelis have always said that They are the masters of their own destiny. They will make their own decisions on war and peace, and that has certainly been the case in Lebanon And clearly, the Israeli Prime Minister is not happy with the status quo. He's made that, I think clear and the Israeli public is unhappy with the status quo and they're looking at elections in the near term So again, if calm is to prevail in South Lebanon It's going to require an intensive, unprecedented, sustained effort on the part of the United States with Israel And that can only have a chance of success if Hezbollah is similarly restrained You've emphasized that long term stability depends on a sustained dialogue and not just military pressure What would you advise the presresident to do right now I would advise the President to exert something that is in short supply with him, strategic patience The Iranians have it in abundance They will settle in for a long haul here And there are no quick fixes to this current crisis, not in the Gulf and not with respect to Iran's nuclear capabilities and not respect to South Lebanon So we need some sustained patience. And again, President Trump is not noted for his sustained patience Tell me a little bit more about the strategic patience. This is a strategy that you've long advocated for in the Middle East. What does that look like? What could that look like in this case Well, in this case, it's a long war began some forty three years ago with a bombing of the U. S. Embassy in Beirut Iran has been as it were on a war footing with the U.S for more than four decades The U.S. is only episodically aware of that So we've got to first adjust our sights here. that this has been a long sustained campaign does not end with this MOU and we've got to think about the long haul What does that mean in practical terms? what are our options? Again to create a conditions that look like long term lasting stability in the Gulf and in South Lebanon What was this do? Well, it could change the dynamic cururrent, the Iranian regime is very much on a war footing New leadership is the hardest of the hard They're all Iran revolutionary guuards veerans. They're all veterans of the Iran Iq War They know how to do war. What I'm not at all certain is that they know how to do peace. And we saw in January with the sustained violent demonstrations in the Tehran and another Iranian city a resolve on the part of the Iranian people They want a better life Now with the conflict raging, those voices are silent But if we can, uh tain a sustained truce, a long term period of peace We may see public opinion shift back again to That fundamental question, what has my government done for me lately? and what the Iranian government has done for its people course has been repressive, violent giving them no economic hope little chance for a better future for their kids That's what we want to get the focus back on At this point, do you think that any of the goals of the war have been met in your view Well, it's kind of hard to keep track of what our goals in the war have been. Clearly, we've done significant damage to Iran's infrastructure, including its military infrastructure, is Surface Navy has been virtually obliterated Its ballistic missile capacity has been significantly reduced But they have shown an ability an incredible resilience, an ability to keep on fighting The fighting in Lebanon has killed at least four thousand people, according to the country's health ministry Ambassador Croacker, you were Ambassador to that country many years ago. I'm wondering how you feel watching this war carry on It's heartbreaking. again, The Lebanese people have borne the brunt of this conflict. whether it was the PLO in the seventies and eighties or Hezbollah in the eighties, nineties, and two thousands It's the Lebanese people have paid the price and with