Analyzing the Terms and Political Impact

It's considereder this where every day we go deep on one big news story Today, what we know about an Iran deal? After months of war and deadlocked negotiations, President Donald Trump announced Sunday on social media he has struck a deal with Iran The Iran deal that we made is going to bring A lot of a lot of success to the world because The oil was really pluogged up there for a while. That was Trump speaking today in France ahead of the G seven summit According to Trump and Iranian officials, the deal would open the strait of Hormuz and end fighting on all fronts, including between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon Israel, the U.S. partner in this war, is not a party to this agreement And Israeli officials have said that their forces in Lebanon are not going anywhere Prim Minister Benjin Netanyahu has yet to comment on the deal ident Trump says a final agreement would limit Iran to enrich uranium for quote, non military purposes forever. This is a very powerful document It's not like the Obama document, which was just a terrible document This is a very powerful document and I want it to be released open. Probably pretty soon I would say after sometime after Friday. Consider this. Trump says the long sought deal to end the U. S. Israel war with Iran is imminent, but without Israel on board Will it actually stick? I N P. I'm Sott Dr. You know, every day on up first NPR's Golden Globe nominated Morning newews podcast, we bring you three essential stories partart of each story Our questions, what really happened? What really mattered What happens next At NPR, we stand for your right to be curious and to follow the facts. Follow up first wherever you get your podcasts and start your day knowing what matters and why Every episode of It's B been a minute, NPR's What's Hpping Culture Podcast starts by asking three questions. Who? How? Why now If the culture's asking it, we're talking about it At NPR, we stand for your right to be curious and indulge your cultural curiosity. Follow it's been a minute wherever you get your podcasts, and we'll break down the zeitgeisty topics that are filling your feed. It's consider this from NPR The U. S and Iran have reached an agreement that could end more than three months of war in Iran But a day after the deal was announced, we still do not know what exactly is in it We've called on two of our correspondents to break down what we know and what we don't know H's Danielle Kurtzeaban is here in Washington and Greg My is in Tel Aviv. Greg, I'm going to start with you. This memorandum of understanding has not yet been released, but is there anything that we know about that that should be sent into motion and how soon Yes, Scott, there is. If this agreement works as planned, several important things could start happening quickly anytime over the next couple days The U. S. and Iran will end the sporadic attacks taking place despite a ceasefire. Iran and the U.S will lift their dueling blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, reopening it to oil tankers. And Israel and Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon should stop. So these are all significant positive developments But if you remember, these conditions existed before the war began. So it's really just a return to the status quo. The hard stuff has been put off for negotiations over the next sixty days. And this includes the fate of Iran's nuclear program. Again, remember, the US and Iran were negotiating this issue in Switzerland back in February And as it turns out, that's where this new agreement is supposed to be formally signed on Friday. Okay. so Danielle Greg lays this out like a return to the way things were before the war began, so I'm curious how President Trump is p betraying Well, he's sure been making it sound like he's done something unprecedented. In a social media post he wrote, quote, The leaders of the region have, for the first time found a president who can help them achieve real peace. But like Greg said, this is in many ways a return to the status quo. And let's also remember, more than three thousand people in Iran have been killed in this war, along with fifteen US service members So in short, Trump is, yeah overstating this as a victory when it really appears to just be fixing some of the problems he created But he's also probably celebrating because he needed an off ramp here. His approval plummeted amid this war, including his approval on the economy, which had been a strong point for him. Gas prices went up, fertilizer prices went up. Inflation passed four percent. so he wanted out. And now since this all was announced Yeah, oil prices have fallen and stocks went up, so Trump is likely happy E if this memorandum isn't the win he says it is. Okay, Greg, how is Iran responding to all of this Yeah, multiple Iranian officials have spoken out in support of this agreement. the general tone is that this is positive for Iran, though they're deeply suspicious of the U S when it comes to the upcoming negotiations. The Iranians are also offering a somewhat different interpretation on how parts of this agreement will work Iran wants billions of dollars of its assets that have been frozen abroad. It wants US and international sanctions lifted, and it wants this sooner rather than later. US officials are stressing that this will be performance based that Iran will have to deliver on its part of the deal first before it gets money. Also, Iran's foreign ministry suggested Iran could charge fees for ships going through the Strait of Hormuz, even as it opens up Well, Trump is saying it will be toll free. Daniee, you were talking about the economic implications of this war. It's been pretty unpopular in the U S. from the beginning. I'm curious whether you think this deal offers Trump a way to move on even if there end up being problems with Iran down the road I mean, it really depends on what those problems are. In general, yeah, this gives him a way to move on in the sense that we'll see gas and diesel prices drop, but it could be weeks or more until they're even anywhere near pre war levels. And then for those prices to trickle through to other goods, that could take some time as well. But let's be real, those prices are what many Americans care about. So will this ease Trump's political problems? Yeah, maybe some But there are more complicated questions that hover over all of this. For example, how long of a memory will Americans have for this time of high prices? And then if Trump doesn't get what he wants on the nuclear front, does he look weak Does this hurt his party in the midtermss And you really get the sense that the White House knows that the messaging is important here Senior administration officials have done multiple calls where they're really just pushing back against what they call misinformation and emphasizing what they are framing as the big wins, even while we still don't know details Okay so, Greg, you're talking to us from Tel Aviv. and this agreement actually does call for a second ceasefire and that's one between Israel and Hezbollah and Lebanon. curious is a truce likely to hold there? Yes, Scott, that really is a big question, Mark. Israeli troops are still all over southern Lebanon. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will keep them there indefinitely. Now Hezbollah supports the ceasefire, but considers it a prelude to an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. So if these Israeli troops remain on Lebanese territory, this will keep the region very tense And one other point we should emphasize, Netanyahu spoke this evening about the Iran war and said, quote, this victory will endure for generations But that really goes to kind against the kind of assessment we're hearing throughout Israeli society today, particularly politicians and political analysts They're saying overwhelmingly that this is a very bad deal and outcome for Israel. For decades, Netanyahu has been the leading Israeli voice in opposing Iran. He wanted to topple its government and dismantle its nuclear program. He long sought a major military campaign against Iran. It finally happened in the past few months, and now it's fallen far, far short of his goals. Danny, all of this is happening, as President Trump said France for the G seven summit. Is he likely to find criticism there for launching this war or support for ending it Well we already saw a little general praise from French President Emmanuel Macron today. He called the deal important for addressing the nuclear issue in his words Of course, we still don't know how that nuclear issue will shake out It's just possible that altogether the leaders at the G seven are going to praise Trump even while they're pretty frustrated with him. This war after all hurt their economies