The Obama Presidential Center Opening

The economist To the Intelligence fromom the Economist, I'm Jason Palmer. Today on the show, the Iran deals effect on a battered economy head a tour of Barack Obama's presidential library First up though, In general, we don't spend a lot of time on the show looking at by elections in Britain This one, this one we told you might be seismic Magerfield is a constituency in Northwest England that, until yesterday, sat at the center of British national politics From here on, I will give everything I have got to make it so to ensure the name Make afield is forever synonymous with bringing about the change this country needs. bringing back something we've lost hope, hope for the future y Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, needed to win the election in order to get into parliament, and from there, to challenge Sir Kiir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party and therefore as prime minister. Well, he did it. Step one, Tick Everyone knows that politics isn't working. Everyone can feel that the country isn't where it should be. Tonight, could, just could Be the turning upon you just be after quite a bit more party politicking Andy Burnhams won the by election in Mayacerfield by a comfortable margin, he took fifty five percent of the vote with Reform UK, the right wing populist partarty quite far behind on thirty five percent Hugo Ji is our British political correspondent. Burnham has previously said he's going to challenge Kir Starmer for the Labour leadership, which would also make him prime Mister. and in the wake of his Convincing victory in this by election A growing number of Labour MPs are saying that Burnham needs to take over preferably as quickly as possible and that he is the person to turn Labour's fortunes around So before we get into the meat of that though, I know you were in Makerfield, as so many British journalists were. In recent days, what did you see there? What was the vibe like? Well, the vibe was a community of people who are thoroughly sick of the Bialection, sick of being canvassed by campaigners from all the different parties, sick of journalists. It's a funny place, makeake a feelield. In one way it doesn't really exist, there is no community called Makerfield. It' a collection of towns, villages, suburbs, fields stretched out over this ten, fifteen mile area on the edge of the town of Wiggan. It's predominantly White area mixed in terms of prosperity, some areas extremely prosperous looking, others struggling The sense is that the population of Makerfield is slightly baffled that they've ended up at the middle of this national and international media storm and also that they We'll now be very relieved that it's all over So Let's talk about why this has been so important, why it all has hinged on feel but more to the point why there's so much buzz around Andy Bernard. We spoke about him on the show. Why would you say at this point, he's important to labor So for a long time as mayor of Greater Manchester, he's more or less Labour's most popular figure, both internally and among the public as a whole. He's considered to have done job in his nine years as a mayor of Greater Manchester put the city really on the map. And so a lot of particularly labour MPs have been saying for a long time The summmer needs to go that Labour's struggles are ultimately down to Kiz Dara's own failings and that Burnham is head and shoulders ahead of any other interestnterestingly, since this by election started and since Burnham made it explicitly clear that he does want to return to Westminster and take the top job. His popularity with the public has been falling a bit. Why do you think that is? Well, I think as in many countries The British public kind of hates politicians and as Burnham has gone from being a regional figure to a national figure I think For some people puts their hackles up. They're already getting ready for him to be the prime minister that they can beat up. Yeah, slightly, slightly. That's certainly the risk for him. He is still much more popular than Kir Stahmer and more popular than most other frontline politicians, more popular than Nigel Farage of Reform UK. But there's definitely been a softening in his opinion polls in recent weeks But it's not yet, of course, written in stone that he will become Prime Minister. What happens between here and there for that to happen? No, absolutely not. So he will be sworn in as an MP next week. The manoeuvering has started immediately after the by election result. Kir Starmer says he is going to stand and fight. He is not going to step down. That's what Burnham wants him to do to step down in an arrange, if you like, a so called coronation where Burnham steps in Berham's not the only candidate though. Not only is there Starmer. There is also Wes Streeting, the centrist carrier of the Blairright flame who resigned from the cabinet a few weeks ago and said he was going to challenge Starmer, but said he wanted to wait until after the Makerfield by election so that Burnham should be in that contest too. All the polls suggest that Andy Burnham is going to be their heavy favorite and that Labour MPs overwhelmingly want Burnham to take over, but it's not a done deal So if it does come to a contest proper, if the coronation, you mentioned, doesn't happen, then essentially it's a vote for the Labor partarty members at large to make. Do you think it'll come to that I think both Kirst Stama and actually Wes Streeting, the other contender are pretty stubborn. My guess would be it's likely that at least one of them will stand up and put their name forwards. But again, It's very likely that Andy Burnham's going to win. He seems to be by far favoud choice of labor members And this Makerfield B election was clearly the top line, the big story overnight, but it was not the only by election that happened. That's right. There was another dialection in Aberdeen South in Scotland where the Conservative partarty, which has been struggling for so long, won the seat, they took it off the Scottish National Party. So that's good news for the conservatives for their leader Kemmy Badnoock, who's trying to reestablish them as the proper national force that they're almost in danger of stopping being And this is actually concerning news for Reform UK. Reform they're leading in the polls nationally. They have been for more than a year now, but they lost badly in Makerfield And they're seeing the conservatives return as a national force, which makes it harder for reform to claim that they are now the party of the right in the UK And another thing that happened in Makerfield is that this far right party Restore Britain, which has a much more hardline message than reform, took seven percent. didn't come close to winning, but pretty decent showing from a party that ent didn't exist a few weeks ago. So there's a risk for reform after a year or more of really dominating British politics It's now being squeezed on all sides. potential labor revival under Andy Burnham, let's see potential conservative revival and a threat on the right, which they've never had before. suuddenly, Nigel Farage's life is looking quite a bit trickier than it was Right, no doubt we'll come back to that and to whether there's a coronation or a vote soon enough for now, Hugo, thank you very much for your time. Thank you, J. Theandum of Understanding that was signed this week by Donald Trump, the American president and his Iranian counterpart, Masu Pazashkin was really a bit of a coup for Iran's economy Fraser McGill Race is a foreign correspondent for the economist in a war against the world's most powerful military Iran managed to wage a war of global economic chaos and came out stronger for it What do you mean by that In exchange for not pursuing a nuclear weapon, the deal seems to suggest some of the following. So in the short term, America will lift its naval blockade, which it's been imposing since the middle of April. been choking off Iran's oil exports it will offer some kind of short term sanctions relief and possibly unfreeze some Iranian assets. And then there is a truly staggering prize which seems to have been put on offer as part of the deal, which is three hundred billion dollar reconstruction fund. Lots of details around that remain quite shaky, but if it's real, then that's an enormous prize for Iran. So we'll put aside the nuclear considerations in this deal or in prospect and just talk about the money and the economics of this. We've spoken on the show a lot about how Iran's economy has been squeezed by the sanctions you mentioned may now be lifted. How much further damage has the war caused Iran Yeah, so the war has made things significantly worse. and there are two main shocks that the war has delivered to an economy that was already really struggling. The first is the raw destruction by American and Israeli airirstrikes. Those have hit everything from bridges to factories, to steel mills oil refineries. And this damage is quite hard to quantify, but one estimate suggests maybe the damage is somewhere in the region of one hundred fifty billion dollars, which is a pretty enormous sum. And then the other shock is the blockade. So the American blockade has done quite an effective job really of strangling Iran's ability to export oil. One estimate is that Iran's oil exports dropped by about eighty percent in May compared to April. That's also affected Iran's ability to import. And one of the consequences of this is that inflation, which was already very high in Iran, has risen very fast since the start of the war. Last month, inflation was about eighty four percent year on year, which was double the level it was in January Food inflation was even higher. That was into the triple digits. Lots of poor Iranians were paying for things like bread and meat in installments, buying groceries on credit which gives you some indication of how dire things are Coming back to this memorandum of understanding, no matter what the terms are or could be at best, it's not going to reverse everything that you've just described. No, there's no way that the kind of damage that has been done in Iran can be reversed immediately. And again, it's worth remembering that this is an economy which was struggling a lot even before the war. So getting back to where the country was before the war is still getting it back to a place which is pretty difficult. But it is a start. So the realal, Iran's currency, which has been basically in free fall this year, it did strengthen once the MOU was announced and that probably reflects the fact that the blockades being lifted will have an immediate impact. So Iran will be able to get Oil exports flowing and that will inject cash into the economy quite quickly But wait, we're talking now about the lifting of the blockade or lifting of sanctions on the transit of oil. So the MOU seems to suggest that at least in the short term, these things will go together. So as well as the blockade being lifted and Iran being allowed to get its ships out of the Gulf America may waive some of the sanctions on Iran's oil shipments, which will make it much easier for the country to not only sell those to a wider range of buyers, but also command a higher price Really this amounts to something quite humiliating for America And that's before we even get to this development fund, this touted three hundred billion dollars fund. What do you make of that Yeah, so there's a lot of question marks all over this figure. It seems to be a case of Americans kind of dangling big Geppsy carrot in front of the Iranians. This is a gigantic sum of money basically equal to Iran's annual GDP. JD Vance earlier in the week was talking up the prospect of a fund of this sort saying this is the kind of thing that the Iranians could have access to if they play along Although he did say that it would be funded by gulf countries. later in the week said that America wouldn't be involved in paying into this fund and he said that he hadn't asked Gulf countries to contribute to it. This does seem like it's a kind of typical Trump. peacemaking offer. It's basically an offer to get lots and lots of money flowing in the hope that It greases the wheels of the negotiations and helps all of the other issues sort themselves out But there are some really serious problems with this idea, quite apart from the fact that Iran's Gulf neighbors have been having drones and missiles lobbed at them for the past few months and they will want to do anything other than send money into Iran, sanctions on Iran which have been built up over the years of the long deterred foreign investors would need to be unwound for anything like this kind of money going into the country. And we're not talking about sanctions wavers here and there on oil exports. If you think about the way that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have extended their reach throughout Iran's economy. Any kind of investment into the country's industry really would need prettyt comprehensive sanctions relief That will be a very tough political sell at home for Donald Trump Well, exactly, you lay out a situation in which none of the aims of the war have been accomplished and the outcome is that in multiple ways, the world or America lining the pockets of the regime they were aiming to crush Absolutely. So it's a big inducement that America seems to be offering a run, but I would take it with a pretty serious pinch of salt and there's a good chance that it never materializes brings us to what seems to be the perpetual question about this war and its aftermath is how much this points to things getting back to normal Yeah, so I think This war in a way is one which has changed everything and changed nothing in the weeks that follow, I think we will get a situation which maybe has the appearance of normality. One important thing is the matter of tolls, which we haven't discussed yet undernder this deal Iran has said that for the next sixty days, it doesn't expect to charge any tolls or fees on ships going through the strait. But in the longer term It is very clear that the regime has every intention of trying to do that. That would pose quite a big challenge to the status quo that we've all come to expect in that part of the world. At the same time, the regime will come out of this massively emboldened. They've learned that they can really wield a lot of power over their neighbors by controlling the strait So I think really what this deal does is it highlights just how badly America has failed to achieve its goals in this war. There's nothing approaching regime change. And what you're seeing is Trump having failed to achieve his objectives militarily switching to try and achieve something with bribes Pppraer thanks very much for your time Thank you for having me on There's a lot more to pick through about the Iran deal and which side is right when claiming a victory. So let me point you to our video series, The Economist Insider This week Insider gives you unprecedented access to our newsroom. Our senior editors take you behind our journalism, from dynamic debates to the latest developing stories, explaining what today's events mean for tomorrow. This week, we look at President Donald Trump's claim that the Iran deal is a historic victory that will usher in an era of peace and security In reality, it's a humiliating climbown that leaves behind a harsh new regional landscape. Join Zanny Minton Betos, our editor in chief, Edward Carr, deputy editor, and a trio of the economists Middle East experts as they assess how profoundly the conflict has reshaped the region. If you're a digital subscriber, Insider is already included in your subscription, nothing extra to sign up for. And if you're listening for free, you can watch extended clips from Insider via the link in the show notes The Obama presidential center towers over Chicago's south side like a brutalist ziggurat John Fasman is a senior culture correspondent for the economist The main building is eight stories high, it's concrete covered in granite. Winding around the top of the main structure is a long quote from a speech Barack Obama made marking the fiftieth anniversary of the civil rightights March from Selba to Montgomery, Alabama The Obama Presidential center, which opens to the public today, is the latest entrant in a uniquely American institution of public memory. Presidential Museum and liibrary These entities let their namesakes do what they have doubtless wanted to do ever since taking office. present their achievements and justifications without quibbles from opposition politicians, pesky journalists or protesting civilians Individually, each one is designed to enhance public understanding of a president, which is a perfectly laouudable goal Collectively, They also revealed the extent to which America has invested its presidence Quasi immperial aura This institution, as it exists today, dates back to the waning days of Franklin Delana Roosevelt's administration Before then, presidential papers were seen as the property of the presidents themselves By tradition, presidents donated them to the Library of Congress, but they certainly didn't have to The Presidential Libraries Act of nineteen fifty five authorized the federal government to accept for preservation presidential papers and to accept gifts or requests of money for maintaining them The Presidential Records Act of nineteen seventy eight The presresident's paper is property of the United States rather than the office holder personally And while Donald Trump's offffice of Legal counsel has opined that act was unconstitutional No court has yet agreed with them But these libraries also have a private component Presidential foundations pay for most of the construction and land acquisition costs The Federal government meanwhile, controls the presresident's papers and most maintenance costs, which currently are around a hundred million dollars a year for all the museums The Obama presidential center is an exception except for the archive's oversight of his papers off site His foundoundation funds the entire complex This was done. the CEO of the Foundation told me to preserve its independence It may have been done to keep Donald Trump, who is famously vindictive and doesn't like President Obama from tampering with its budget. The CEO of the foundoundation told me Every former living president will attend the groundbreaking ceremony on the eighteenth President Trump will not. He was not invited Most of these libraries go really heavy on the pomp Ronald Reags has a decommissioned Air Force One, along with his limousines and a helicopter Lyndon Johnsons features a life size moving talking puppet of the president. tellelling hokey jokes, It is exactly as weird as it sounds Franklin Roosevelt preserves the cozy private study where he received visitors A lot of them, including Obam' let visitors walk around life sizeed replicas of the Oval Office as they were decorated during that president's tenure The main attractions though are the museums. many of which border on Hiography, though interestingly, that can change after the president's death I went to the Roosevelt Library earlier this spring and was struck that it featured exhibits about his mistresses and some really uncomfortable questions about why he was so reluctant to accept Jewish refugees during the Second World War. Obama's library, befitting the man himself, is attractive, worldly, and invested in culture as well as politics exxterior may be chilly and gray, but the interior is very warm. There's lots of dark wood Art is contemporary and ambitious and well chosen And the grounds are well planned too. Michelle Obama who grew up nearby insisted on a steep sleddy hill because she never had one Like Obama's presidency, the museum's permanent exhibitions eschew simple patriotism in favor of complexity emphasizing America's heritage as a credle rather than blood and soil nation And it doesn't shy away from uncomfortable questions, the opening exhibition on democracy's building blocks It features the Declaration of Independence next to Native American Pitions againainst rememoval. The civil rightights moveoment features prominly, as you can imagine, in the sections on Mr and Mrs. Obama's early lives Just intimate enough to make viewers feel included Each section also features a part called The Work That Remains, showcasing things that President Obama wishes he had accomplished during his presidency, such as gun control and immigration reform The museum will thrill President Obama's fans and convert precisely zero skeptics That's true of most presidential museums, and maybe that's fine Being president is tough, and if their supporters wish to spend their own money celebrating the president's achievements, what does that harm On the other hand, remember that presidents are not kings, they're civil servants They work for the American people. They don't rule us It's one thing to have statues of great accomplished leaders like Abraham Lincoln or George Washington Taxpayers really need to pay the upkeep for John F. Kennedy's Srimsaw collection I can't help thinking that maybe if Americans stop investing their presidents with imperial trappings and memorials Presidents will stop acting like emperors That's all for this episode of The Intelligence, which yesterday is Nails here was a winner at the Society of Editors's News Podcast Awards in London The show's editors are Chris Impy and Jack Gill. Our deputy editor is Sarah Larnuke, and our sound designer is Will Re. Our senior producers are Henrietna McFarle and Alisi Jean Baptiste, O our senior creative producer is William Warren, and our senior development producer is Rory Galloway. Our producer is Anne Hannah and assistant producer Canal Patel, with extra production help this week from Eleanor Sly and Katie Peterson We'll all see you back here tomorrow for the next installments of our new series, Tocqueville Road Trip. It's a parapathetic look at democracy in America as it turns two hundred and fifty, seen through the writings of Alexis de Tocqueville, who sagely chronicled the American experiment when it was a sprightly fifty something. See you there