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From Gulf-co-operation counsel: what next for the region — Jun 30, 2026
Gulf-co-operation counsel: what next for the region — Jun 30, 2026 — starts at 0:00
And I thought, what if I've scaled businesses Ive scaled my philanthropy. What if I did as much in one year as I've done in my whole life? See how your wealth could have even greater meaning at creativeplanning dot com slash impact From globalization to innovation, sustainability to market volatility There's always more than one side to a story Explore different perspectives on today's most important business and economic issues, with the fllipide podcast from Barclay's Investment Bank Hear two research analysts in a lively debate and get insights from every angle to further inform your view. Listen to the flip side on your favorite platform. Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from the Economist I'm Jason Palmer, and I'm Rosie Blw Today on the show, our America at two hundred fifty series concludes and how plants use the sound A them First up though Okay, How about a couple of quick questions Iran on Iran, mister Sresident. You you said that Iran violated the ceasefire. Will they face any consequences? We'll find out You hardardly have known over the weekend there was an Iran warar ceasefire in place I don't like the fact that they took a shot Day after day, attacks on and from Iran attacks on U. S. Allies, Bahrain and Kuwait an apparent response to U. S. Central commommand confirming airirstrikes on Iibran overnight. It's also hard to figure out the state of negotiations between America and Iran officials said there would be more high level talks in Qatar this week Iran's deputy foreign M minister said yesterday that there wouldn't. In short, it's all still uncertain, and that uncertainty for Iran and for all its regional neighbors, may be the most potent and lasting harm of this war. The Gulf states aren't total strangers to conflict. They went through the tanker wars in the nineteen eighties. They endured Saddam Hussein's occupation of Kuwait in nineteen ninety Karstrom is a Middleast correspondent for the economist And yet I think in many ways you could argue this is the greatest shock the Gulf has ever been through, even though the consequences of this war might seem less visible than previous ones. The consequences have, on the basis of our conversations over those four months alone, seemed pretty visible, Greg Yes and no, you've had thousands of Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf states and they've caused tens of billions of dollars in damage But mercifully, they killed very few people. compompare that to the invasion of Kuwait, for example, when hundreds of Kuwaiti civilians were killed. So we haven't seen anything like that this year And despite the closure of the Strait of Hormz, even though you could bring almost nothing through for four months, we haven't seen shortages in the Gulf countountries in this region have spent huge amounts of money to keep shelves stocked and to keep their economies somewhat functioning. So They've managed to lump the most direct impact of the war for their residents. but this war comes at a time when the Gulf is a very different place than it was in the nineteen eighties or the nineties. Back then, it really was the world's petrol station. Dubai was a sort of sleepy T trading town on the coast, It wasn't yet a household name. Saudi Arabia was a dower place that didn't even offer tourist visas. Today, it's something much different. It's a huge player in everything from finance to logistics. Some of the world's biggest airlines are in this region, someome of the world's biggest sovereign wealth funds. You have millions of expats who have moved here over the years drawn low taxes and stability and the opportunity to start businesses and settle down. It's a very different region than it was. All of that growth, all of that change has depended on the perception that the Gulf is stable and secure and Iran has damaged that perception. by which you mean sort of permanently damage that perception. It depends on how the war ends if the war has ended, and that depends a lot on Donald Trump. I hate that that is the answer to almost every question in global politics these days, but it's really true here If America and Iran can get to a lasting deal that ends their state of hostilities, then I think the Gulf could move on from this quite quickly, That perception of risk in the region will dissipate. On the other hand, if the deal falls apart and we see a return to fighting between America and Iran, we could see even more destructive Iranian attacks in the Gulf, and obviously that would have far worse consequences When I talk to people in the region, though, the expectation that most have is that we won't see either of those outcomes. We will see this interim deal remain in effect, but no broader transformative peace between America and Iran, and that is going to leave the Gulf with an elevated level of risk for the foreseeable future. And it's going to leave them with three challenges. They will have to rebuild confidence. they will have to rethink what it means to diversify their economies at a time of elevated risk. And they will have to navigate the geopolitics of a moment where they don't trust each other, and they also have lost trust in America as well And so what's your take on Gulf country's readiness to tackle all three of those things No one is entirely prepared for it, but you have some countries that are much better positioned than others. I would say at one end of the spectrum is a country like the UAE, where first, there are no signs that there's been a mass exodus of expats from Dubai or elsewhere. People speak pretty positively about the way the government defended the country from Iranian attacks. So there seems to be confidence within the expat population They have lots of fiscal firepower to prop up their economy, to offer incentives to try and woo back tourists and business travelers, and they have alternatives to the Strait of Hormas. They're planning to expand ports and build new pipelines and look for ways to bypass the straight So they're in a much better position than a country like Bahrain, which went into the war with one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world, with limited foreign reserves Those problems have been exacerbated by the war. Bahrain hasn't been able to export oil, which has strained its finances. It's probably going to rely on bailouts from its gulf neighbors for some time to come now. And so I think it's going to be very difficult for Bahrain to try and grow its economy going forward. And then you have a lot of countries that are somewhere in the middle. And I think what we've seen over the past four months, particularly because those countries don't have alternatives to the strait of hormos I think it's going to make it harder for them to position themselves as tourism hubs or hubs for business or look for ways to diversify away from hydrocarbons So in a lot of ways, this war has made at least some of these Gulf countries work on changes that were kind of already underway It's going to speed them up and it's going to perhaps take them in a different direction. I think one lesson for the Gulf from these past few months is They need to invest a lot more money in strategic sectors to try and mitigate this newfound risk that they face. So I think you're going to see a lot of investment in defense in logistics, building these ports and pipelines and things to bypass the Strait of Hormos Food security is going to be a big conversation, hydroponic farms and other ways to try and grow food I think you're going to see a lot of money pouring into that and probably less money going into ski resorts in the desert and sci fi cities on the Red Sea Coast and the sorts of things that they were focused on before The other lesson from this and it's one that I'm skeptical the Gulf states will actually learn is that they need to be more united going forward What do you mean by that What we've seen over the past few months indeed, is that Gulf countries have very different views of Iran. Some want to try and reconcile with it now. others think it's a threat and they're focused on trying to contain it. they don't trust one another. We've seen even their air defenses over the past few months have not been properly integrated despite years and years of pleas from the Americans Each of the Gulf countries is probably too small and too weak to confront Iran on its own. So this should be a moment where you would think the Gulf gets together and with a unified position and tries to harden its defenses visa vis Iran. But if past this prologue here, I think it may end up deepening those divisions and we'll see each Gulf country going its own way. Greg, thanks very much as ever for joining us. Thank you, Jason. If you're looking for something predictable and low friction over the long term, public markets may be a suitable option The moment you want different investment characteristics, it may be time to consider the private markets See how yourour wealth can work smarter at creativeplanning dot com slash access. You want to get your backyard summer ready, but you don't want to break the bank? 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By two thousand seven House prices were falling Soon, many borrowers began to default Mortgage backed securities lost value were hit hard Lehman Brothers is going bankrupt And financial markets from Asia to Europe are doing their utmost to prevent Monday from turning from dark to bllack As banks began to collapse The financial system seemed on the verge of unraveling. The Bush administration proposed a seven hundred billion dollars bailout largely an attempt to protect those institutions deemed too big to fail Crisis triggered the worst global recession since the Great Depression I stand here today hang it byy the task of force In november two thousand eight, America elected its first black president Barack Obama seemed to embody what commentators called post racial America The vast majority of African Americans thought that his election would improve race relations That was the hope anyway anntipathy towards Obama and his policies fueled a new populist movement called the tea party which would reshape the Republican Party. Conservative media amplified the baseless claim that Obama had not been born in the United States conspiracy theory that Donald Trump than a reality television star enthusiastically supported. It's a real possibility, much greater than I thought two or three weeks ago, Th he has pulled one of the great cons in the history of politics. In twenty twelve, a twenty year old man armed with a semi automatic rifle. walked into Sandy Hook Elementary Sch and killed twenty young children and six adults. before killing himself The majority of those who died today were children Beautiful little kids between the ages of five and ten years old School shootings had already become a familiar problem But the mass murder of children shocked the country briefly raised hopes that Congress would pass tough gun laws didid not The economist said If even the slaughter of twenty small children cannot end America's infatuation with guns Nothing will. In the decade after Sandy Hook There were nine hundred shootings on school grounds in America Ladies and gentlemen I am officially running The presresident of the United States. And we are going to make great. When Trump announced his presidential campaign in twenty fifteen, few pundits gave him a chance of winning I'm using my own money. I'm not using the lobbyists, I'm not using donors. I don't care I'm really rich. I'll show you that. But voters were in an anti establishment mood He championed a new brand of nationalism that viewed foreign affairs as a zero sum game He won, of course And over his first term, he captured the Republican Party He passed tax cuts that favoreor the wealthy and appointed three conservative justices to the Supreme Court court would later make historic decisions, including overturning Roe versus Wade During Trump's first term, Debates over sex Race and power intensified The killing of George Floyd by a white police officer did another reckoning. Please. La can't base Ple there. Citing other instances of racism and police brutality Millions marched under the banner, Black Lives Matter. ret understated in our coverage of COVID nineteen When it first appeared in China around january twenty twenty But as we all know It was not an understated event I'm declaring a public health emergency of international concern over the global outbreak of novel Coronivitus ust slow it down State and local governments imposed sweeping restrictions which was a lot to absorb in Liberty loving America I More than a million Americans died Trump's handling of the pandemic did not inspire confidence. And then I see the disinfectant it knocks it out in a minute ne minute. and is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning. Voters turned on him in twenty twenty, favoring instead a veteran Democrat Joe Biden for president desespite the fact that he was well past retirement age, but Trump refused to concede Claiming falsely the election had been rigged. That culminated in a rally on january sixth, twenty twenty one After which his supporters stormed the Capitol W This hour Our democracy is under unprecedented assault Unlike anything we've seen in modern times. By that time, the economist already had a podcast, The Intelligence. It lasts a very long time. It really was a watershed moment for American politics and not in a good way When Biden took office He presided over perhaps the most energetic American government in nearly half a century. But in twenty twenty four It became clear to voters that Biden himself was not as energetic as his government capitalizing on high inflation, concerns about immigration, and short memories Mr. Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the race for the White House In his second term Trump has doubled down on the policies of his first and Minneapolis are the latest targets of the Trump administration's federal immigration crackdown. You can see some live im towards what President Trump has called America's Liberation Day. He says he will unveil a massive slate of taxes on. And Israeli defense officials says the attack has been coordinated with the U. S and had been planned for months Smoke can be seen coming from buildings in town To paraphrase Ben Franklin America is a republic. If you could keep it As the country marks its two hundred fiftieth birthday The great Lberal experiment is again under strain In another fifty years, when America marks its three hundredth birthday. Historians might look back at this moment and judge whether it's citizens kept their republic Re much W crereamy We tend to think of hearing as a uniquely animal sense. We certainly know how to make a lot of noise But scientists have long wondered if plants might be secretly listening in A study in twenty eighteen claimed that one species of Asian shrub grew larger leaves when exposed to Buddhist chants Another last year found that the sound of traffic stunted the growth of marigolds And for plants, as with the rest of us, hearing could prove useful. We have evolved in our understanding of how plants interact with sound quite a lot in recent years Matt Kaplan is a science correspondent We used to think that because plants don't have ears, they couldn't hear But as time has progressed, we have increasingly found that plants most definitely are using sound to gain information about the world around them So if plants don't have ears, How are they using sound So Sounds are waves, they're energy waves and they cause vibrations. That's why even someone who is deaf can hear and I put here in quotes bass from a really loud vehicle passing by because the bass makes you shake. You feel it in your body. Plants have water inside them, and when waves of energy hit them, they vibrate And plants can detect that We didn't realize that they were making use of that information, but they do So what are they doing with that information then So some of the most interesting research has demonstrated that when plants are being nibbled on by a plant eating insect. They can detect what kind of nibbles they are basased upon the vibrations of the nibbler And they can then respond accordingly. I mean, it's unbelievable the arsenal that plants have at their disposal. They can respond to an attack by flushing their leaves with chemicals that make them taste terrible. But more interestingly, in recent years, we've discovered that plants can release chemicals into the air that smell sweet to parasitic and carnivorous insects come and eat the herbivorous insects that are on the plant. Plants do actually communicate to carnivores and say, hey, yo I've got these really bad insects. I me will you come and eat them. And of course, it's symbiotic for the predator because they get a meal. They're alerted by the plant So Matt, if plants aren't just listening, but actually good at listening, are they also speaking in some form So yes, plants do emit noises and they're created by bubbles, usually of air inside the plant's tissues When different conditions are present, like there' not being enough water or the tissues being damaged by infection bubbles released or they collapse And this causes small shockwaves in the surrounding tissues that cause the plant to vibrate is what creates the sound, you and I can't hear them But a microphone put at the right location absolutely can. And they sound like little pops And what's more is the noises are distinct to different conditions, virus infection versus drought versus being. or chopped feel like you're opening up whole new areas of paranoia for plants to be eavesdropping on us Aside from the weirdness and amazingness of all of this Why does it matter? It raises all kinds of interesting possibilities. You know, farmers could put microphones in their field and listen into their crop and have that fed to a computer and have the computer alert them We have these plants in this sector of the field that are suffering from, for example, mosaic virus or this crop here is suffering from drought. Also, if you can communicate to those plants via sound, that's a really cheap way to potentially get your crops to do a specific thing.
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