Conservative victory in Aberdeen South

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So thanks for bearing with us because we are a bit later today, but that is because there is news. There is so much going on. I've just raced back from Makerfield to chat to both of you, Ruth, you've hopped across the Irish Sea to join us. You've stopped halfway in a hotel because your flight was delayed. You have literally taken one for the team. Your family have deserted you. But it is all go because Andy Burnham has just stormed the Makerfield elect He is no longer the King of the North, the king across the water. He's now a member of Parliament, Labour's newest member of Parliament and he is probably heading down to Westminster after a period of rest over this weekend, I'm told, to try and challenge in some form Starmer to become Pime Minister. So we are now really in it. It is going to be a big week next week. This is a seismic by election. It really was as consequential as we said it could be. And we've already got reports and I'm picking up that there are ring rounds of the cabinet. Starmer' testing what support he has up in Makerfield, Burnham Allies are talking about the cabinet needing to step up and try and encourage Starmer to step down. One person put it to me like this, Kir Starmer can either have a bloody exit or a dignified exit But exit, he will and it is up to him to decide Harriet You've been on the phone, so you probably know far more than I do. What do you think Well, I hate to quote Boris Johnson, but do you remember when he said when he recognized that he had to leave government? and he said about his ministers and his MPs, the herd is moving Well, I have to say that it's not today that the herd is moving, they are stampeding. I remember this quote very well because Boris Johnson said when the herd moves, it moves and he was referring to effectively being dragged out of number ten as he sort of held on, I imagine on the curtains with his fingertips and junior ministers were resigning cabinet ministers Rigning just lost the confidence of his government. Number one, do you think that's where Kir Starmer is getting to with his party? And are you in the herd if you moved I don't think It's gettingetting to that, I think it's got to that. That's where it is mininisters have mo, not just cabinet ministers that we've seen publicly, but junior ministers now. and so many of them are so regretful about it and they're saying, it's not where I wanted to be, but that's where we are And you know so many back benches are moving. and there's three things that they mention Council elections John Heanleey's resignation and then Andy Burnham's unbelievable triumph in Makerfield, which made them feel that they could breathe easy and feel that actually we don't have to be subjected to the absolute abomination of a Nigel Farraage prime Ministership. Let me cut to the chase Do you think that Kistama should now set out a timetable for his departure. What I think he should do is recognize that there is a challenge. At the moment, he's sending out cabinet ministers to say Actually there isn't a challenge There is a challenge. So I think he's got to recognize there's a challenge, and he's got to recognize that The most important thing for a Prime Mister is to have the support of the members of Parliament Yeah, and we should say that if you want to hear from us on something that isn't Burnham related, we took our subscribers behind the scenes of the social media band with Jess Phillips in our Fast ever meembers only episode this week. So if you want to hear that episode, or you want to get more from us early next week, who knows where we'll be by then then you can subscribe to Sky News Insider to get those episodes, as well as these Friday ones, which are completely ad free. There's a load of other perks as well, and we're going tell you all about them soon All the details are in the episode description and all the terms and conditions are there too, and we promise the team are working on making it available to our dysfunctioners outside the UK. Thank you for getting in touch We're feeding back all your messages to the powers that be. is Ruth and Beth And we will have an update for you soon. I wish it was the powers of me. There's so many higher powers than me and Ruth sadly Let's kick off with the mega result of Makerfield. And as I said, it was a burnham victory and a pretty decisive one at that. He won fifty five percent of the vote, nine point six percent up on the labor result of twenty twenty four. I don't need to tell you that governing parties typically do not grow their vote shares in by elections. There's only one gent that did that of late and it was Boris Johnson in Hartleypool at the top of the Boris wa in in twenty twenty one. Reform candidate Robert Kenyan came in second thirty five percent of the vote. That was two point seven percent up on their vote share. Restore Britain finished with seven percent of the vote. And the reason that matters is Andy Burnham proved that you could add restore and reform together. and he still got more than that. So that was another big win for the Burnham And it was a high turnout, fifty nine percent of voters turning out. I mean, it really was a mega victory. I mean twenty points ahead of reform. And you've got to remember in the local elections of May, twenty four out of the twenty five council seats went to reform in Wiggan All wards in Makerfield, all eight wards went to reform. And Luke Trill had a great little stat out this morning. He said when you look at what reform did in the mayay elections to what Burnham did on Thursday night, it was a twenty three point swing from reform to labour. So that was emphatic for Burnham. He has proved, if you like to the Labour movement that Kir Starman might not be able to be reformed but Andy Burnham So I mean it was a massive mega moment But Harriet, let's go back to where we started at the beginning. We've now got one hundred MPs calling for Starmer to go. I understand that he is calling around some of the cabinet to try and work out what support he is. Meanwhile, I understand that what's going on is the Burnham camper trying to squeeze, turn the screw on Starmer. They want him to set out a timetable. They don't want it to be messy calling around MPs trying to get support to try and show Kia Stara that overwhelmingly the party won't back him. And you were saying that the herd moves. It seems to me you've moved What do you think might happen next week? Well, I've been doing a lot of thinking about we need an animal expert on this programm to tell us about herds because the point about herds is that if you get left behind by the herd You know, that's it You know, you're extinct and There is this sense of collective movement. and a lot of people who I've been speaking to this morning you OMPs and ministers, they're in two places at once. They're disappointed that we're in this position. They know that people don't like change of Prime Minister. they wish the first two years of this government would have been loads more successful and Kir Staharmer would be truly popular. So they're disappointed that we've got to this, but they also feel really optimistic now, they feel a real sense of hope and possibility with the prospect of change. So people's real really people's voices have changed They've actually they're sounding a bit more upbeat. WhatsApp they're sending me, I've got loads of thumbs up and you know, this, you know biceps emoji is coming in peopleeople are feeling stronger and more positive. And I think the only concern I've got. I mean I think it's going to happen that Andy Burnham is going to become Prime Minister K Starmer is going to be leaving office, but what I want to do is to make sure as the new Prime Minister. someomehow the Parliamentary Labour Party is able to express its support for him so that there's some legitimacy for him coming into the premiership. I don't want him to be Walking in through the door as Kirstarmer shuffles out the door, and then suddenly it's changed, but nobody can see what it's grounded in I think there's not going to be a full on contest amongst the membership, but there does need to be some endorsement process. And I think the nomination process is insufficient for that because the nomination process is just we want this person to be able to stand. Andy Burnham, if he's to be Prime Minister, needs the Parliamentary Labour Party to endorse him as their Pime Minister because he's going to have to ask them to do very difficult things and to call on their loyalty. he needs to be saying You chose me And therefore, I'm going to call on your loyalty and we're going to work together on this. But broadly speaking, I mean that you know that's a bit of a sort of process point and a legitimacy point. But I think things have really changed and I don't think there's going to be any question of a timetable. I mean, some people were talking about September cannot have ministers in a state of paralysis all the way through the summer I think what's going to happen is that I'm going to a beher But I don't think Andy Burnham's going to be going on holiday. I think he is going to I do not expect him to see him with Calvin Harrison me in aba. I think he is going to be He's going to be like Gordon Brown. Do you remember when Gordon Brown took over? and he went on his summer holiday in the southwest In a suit and tie, sat on the beach in his suit and tie for about five minutes and then came back to London. I don't think Andy Burnham is even going to be going on his summer holidays because he knows people want change. so he will hit the ground running. by the time we come back in September, he will have done loads of things for the manifesto that people want to see happen And by the time we get to conference in September we'll be at a complete different pace of change God or do I sound like I'm in the herd? Oh my Godd I'm in that herd. Sorry, before we just first of all Can someone clip that up with this Calvin Harris soundtrack and put a disco ball above Harriet Harman's head? Thank you. and that's all I would like to add to that. I mean, the first thing I want to unpack is are you going with Angelaina? A you on the dexit manu mission inge going to be in as well. I think she's probably going to be hitting the ground running in the UK. I'm going to be the only one partying this summer. Honestly, they're going to want to make a big pace of change thinkink Gordon Brown I mean, I get that that's what you want, Harriet, because you're labor and you want it to all be seamless and you want to start feeling like you've got forward momentum. But there's quite a lot to unpack there about what can and can't happen. I mean, if I was a member of the Labour Party, I would not for one second stand by and just say that the MPs get to decide and I don't get a vote on who my leader is I think as well, the idea that if I'm the Prime Mister, there's only the second prrime Minister this century to win a Labour majority since the war I don't think I'm walking off into the distance just to let Andy Burnham have the keys to the kingdom without digging my heels in and going, actually Andy, you've got a job first, which is see how you wanted a different job and we've got to buy election for your job as mayor of Manchester. You've got to get yourself back to Manchester and make sure we don't lose that to reform. Thanks very much, Mate. You don't just get to swan in and measure up the curtains in number ten. So I totally understand why that's the dream for labor people that feel like this has been two years wasted and that there's forward momentum that can happen But I think you're in dreamland if you think it's just all the dominoes are just going to fall your way. Well, I don't think they will just fall like that, but I think there's a big role for the deputy leader, Lucy Powell, who is an excellent woman, and another excellent woman who is Jessica Morden, who is the chair of the PLP. And those two women, I think need to get three men in a room, lock them in. Those men are Andy Burnham West Streeting and Kir Stahmer and not let them out until they've agreed a swift process. because ultimately We don't want a wrangle about the process. and we don't want a situation where cabinet ministers are resigning to try and push Kistama out. I think if he can acknowledge there is a challenge and lean into that challenge and put his case. But you know, Ruth one MP, who's been a real big K Stahmer supporter, who's now signed up for Andy Burnham said to me that he doubts there's even thirty MPs now who actually believe it's possible for Kir Stahmer to stay, not that they don't necessarily more than that want him to stay. but they just feel it's over. Look, apart from the marmalade dropper that is Harriet Harmon Raving to Calvin Harris in Ibeta, and yes, I am coming and would like to join in You just said that you think Andy Burnnham is going to be Prime Minister I mean, you actually said that. It's quite something to say, Harriet Well, it's the elephant in the room really. and I think that I would have wanted it to be different. I would have wanted Kir Staha to be really successful and popular and have the full backing of the Parliamentary Labour Party we've had the terrible council elections, but we've had John Heaney resigning, now we've had Andy Burnham turning around all these voters gone to reform in the council elections And then they go, o, there's Andy Burnham. We're going to vote for him and then he gets more votes than all the other parties put together. And the thing about those voters in Makerfield is that it's not just spin in relation to Andy Burnham. The reason why they like him is because they know what he's done, they like what he's done, and they like how he's done it. So they like the fact that he's worked with business that he's not been, you know he's been prepared to work with Tory counsellors in different parts of the Greater Manchester area. So it's solidly based. It's not ephemeral. It's after ten years of them knowing him. Usually when people know me for ten years, they've gone off me. You know, whereas all No that is true, I'm afraid. Sot that from this podcast. I'm not having that. But the thing is that it's solidly based. They've seen what he does, they like what he does. And you know, I said on the last podcast that one of the things about Andy Burnham is that he's liable. and somebody said to me You shouldn't have said he's liable. That is trivial Actually you should be talking about his policies, but actually people Lkability is people feeling he makes them feel se. The The thing is though, Harriet and going back to what Ruth you just said, that very, very pertinent point about where Star is at and the idea that you can just walk into Downing Street and he'll just go, fair enough, fair enough, I'm not very good at being PM if I go From my conversations with Kir Starmer's team interviewing him at the G seven this week, it's just not where his head is at I think from what I understand about Kir Stahmer, he is of the view that if you want to come and take the prime Ministerial chair from me, you've got to win that chair, you've got to prove yourself. You've got to be put through your paces. You have to earn the right to become Prime Minister and that is not the makeaker field by election. and you can see him putting obstacles in the way already, can't you The thing Starmer said this morning in response to the victory was, you know now the Labor movement's got to pull together and win the greater Manchester May or two, which is what he said at the G seven. And I think you're right, Ruth. I think the idea of the Burnham crew that Starmer is going to kind of see the light and understand really where Harriet's saying party is at and make a dignified exit. He might get there in the coming days. He might do if the pressure is such, but I don't think that's where he's at I think one of the things that Harriet's right about is that politics has a momentum of itself. This heard moving thing is true. And I think that there are a lot of people that have had very little hope for a year in the PLP, the Parliamentary Labour Party who have got somebody now that they can you stick up a white stetss and on, you could be the man in the white hat that can come and save them and be the Savior. And that will have its own momentum also think that Andy Burnham's got four. He's gone into two leadership elections before one of them as the clear favorite and he's crumbled both times. He tried to mount a putative pooch on Starmer last year and he went away with his tail between his legs. So he's got to have added something to his game to be able to push this through because if he can't hack it in a leadership election, he's not going to hack it running the country because these are tough times and they need serious people But I also this idea that Harriet had about lock them in the room, do a deal, West Streeting, Kirstarmer and Andy Burnnam I understand what Andy Burnham gets out of it. To a degree, I can almost see Kir Starmer not being humiliated, having an appeal if he genuinely believes he does I don't see what Wes gets out of it He might want a big job, he might not, but he might want a crack at Andy Burnham because he might just come through the middle because Andy might fail again. But the other thing, if I was Kure Starmer right now in Downing Street, I would be looking at the Make or Field by election and I would look at where lots of things changed And I would be saying to myself perform has a ceiling two years into a cutting government because the times are tough. only that the polls have narrowed, I'm only now six, seven points in most polls behind them as an unpopular government. And we've just shown that there is a ceiling to this. So our greatest challenger doesn't have the momentum that they think they might have going into another election I can face Farraage don' And you know, and I've earned the right to do that because I've won the stunking majority. me and Tony Blair, the only two guys since the war ever to have done that for the Labour Party. So I can kind of see why Starmer would want to dig in Absolutely, and all the things that you've said are absolutely right Except that I think I would the issue about Andy Burnham and the leadership elections that he fought is that was More than ten years ago beforefore he had got all of that experience as being mayor of Greater Manchester and I think he has grown And he's learnt and he's a very different and more formed politician than he was even when he was in the cabinet And I agree with you, you're exactly right in what you say about Kir Stama. He won the leadeership of the Labour Party in a contest and he won it thenen he won the general election. And he's got the right to be Prime Minister. And then With his big majority, he starts making progress, hospital waiting has come down, immigration's coming down, inflation's coming down. he's completely set our international relations And so I can quite see why he thinks, Why should I be going at this point? I'm only two years in. It's a five year contract I've got. I've got a mandate to serve, and that's my responsibility. But the difficulty is you serve with the support of the Parliamentary Labour Party They have made a different decision They have made a decision that they're not hanging around with Kirstara and I've I have wish they would have done. I don't want us to be here but actually I can see They have moved And therefore, what I want to see is if Kistarmer feels he can persuade them to move the herd around, which is dampading, but move it around to go to him with his arguments that you've just made, Ruth Then he needs to be able to stand in front of them and say, lookook guys, I know you're thinking of choosing somebody else, but just let me tell you that people don't like changing Prime Minister. Part of the reason why we got rid of the Tories is because they don't want all the chopping and changing instability at the top. Let's send Andy Burnham up to the Greater Manchester arerea to win the Meralty and let's all pull together as a team. And if he can persuade Labour MPs that he's going to step up with the velocity of change and he's going to bring Andy Burnham into the camp and they if that appeals to them, that's fine. But I think we're past that moment. That's what I'm saying is that I think there's been a problem with the leadership of Kirz Dharma, but I think there's also been a problem of followership A lot of the MPs haven't worked out that their role is when you're elected as a Labour MP to support the government Andy Burnham has got to ensure that they do understand that they this time they have got to support the Prime Minister. they've got to support the goovernment. And this is the last chance. Can I ask the two of your question Be I'm up in my little Celtic shaped sort of ole and nest so both in Scotland and now today in Ireland. So I'm not in Westminster at the moment, and I'm guessing that there's a lot of frantic conversations happening. There's people phoning each other, chatting to each other, briefing, counterbriefing and all the rest of it. And I'm just from what I'm seeing online and kind of knowing the way politics works I'm seeing the Prime Minister's team briefing that he's raising lots of money in case there's a challenge I've seen that Andy Burnham has launched a website and he's got stuff going on, and he's done his rally and his speech was very tapered to you actually could almost hear the gears grind as he pivoted from Maker fields to the country. I mean, it was almost an astonishing piece of political theater Butt I don't hear much from Wes. so I don't know if him and his team are cracking on and trying to line their people up. anything happening from the outriders of the Prime Minister actually speaking to people or are they just briefing that they've got money? Because these are very different things when it comes to being able to survive you somebody's shaking the tree I've spoke to a lot of junior ministers and MPs this morning and They've all had Andy Burnham or Andy Burnham's team on the phone talking to them and asking for their support, asking them to sign a letter if they're a minister, that they no longer support the Prime Minister, asking them if they're a backbencher, if they'll sign his nomination papers. So they've been on the phone, Wes has been talking to people in person and has been on the phone and is still on the phones to people Nobody I've spoke to has heard from the Prime Minister. So when he says He's fighting back. I have heard that he's raised money The fight back starts with the PLP and he's not actually doing that. and I find that really baffling because they should be his troops. It's so interesting when you say that, Harriet, because I've spoken to a couple of people around the PM todayod are familiar with a bit of what's going on. and one person said to me, the thing about Kir Stama is he kind of doesn't take it in or see it because he doesn't see around political corners until it sort of hits him So he's not necessarily anticipating what you're talking about about the mobilization of other campaigns. And you know, one of his key people were saying to me today just shortly before I came to the podcast I saying Noos if' calling people round, what's going on? you know, from a Kir Starmer point of view, there is not yet a leadership race, which I know that you'll roll your eyes out because the leadership race is going on even if a formal challenge hasn't been laid. but you know someone that was familiar with what was going around on after Anasawa said he was standing down. They said to me that they they don't sort of feel that coordinated activity going on at the moment because there isn't a leadership election. But of course, on the other side of that I asked Lou Hig up in Makerfield this morning, the former transport seecretary who is the campaign chief. Not only was she the campaign chief of the Makerfield by election, she and Annelise Midley, MP for Kowsley and a big organiser. They are running, they are running Andy Burnham's campaign. I said to Louise on camera to Lou Haig. If there's a leadership challenge, are you ready? emphat it yes, we're ready. So what you're talking about, Harriet is two very good political organizers, but more than just Lou and Anelise. There's a lot of Northern powerowerhouse women, as Andy Berham put it up in Makefield behind him. They are organizing. they are organizing What you're saying tallies with what I'm picking up, which is this idea that you get this bulk of the Labour Parliamentary party to tell Starmer to stand down, you begin to mobilize ministers and you just make it impossible for him in good conscience to stay on and that definitely is their tactic. O WS. I mean, this is what's so fascinating about it, which is if you ask the Burnham team, they'll admit it Wes is a wild card in the sense that Andy Burnham can try and deal with Kir Starmer or try and come to some sort of accommodation or not Andy Bun does not want to trigger a leadership contest. He wants a coronation. He doesn't want to have to go into a big race But then if Wes Streeton decides he's got the numbers he says he has, but he decides he wants to go and have, as he puts it, a battle of ideas, they're into a leadership race, whether whether the party wants it or not. It's not in the gift of Starmer B it's quite could get quite messy quite quickly, couldn't it? It feels as if although West Streeting is still making his case and because you can never tell how things will work out until they've actually worked out, he's still putting himself forward. I think a lot of the MPs and ministers feel really puzzled as to why Prime Minister or his people are not in touch with them. They're kind of sort of waiting by their phones and it's kind of respectful for Andy Burnham to be ringing them up and for his team to be ringing them up. They feel seen, they feel important, they feel included. he's talking to them Wes is talking to them and then they're thinking Don't the Prime Mister know who I am? Why isn't the Prime Minister ringing me up? So I think be it's just quite puzzling. To be fair to Kistahmer, he did get a load of junior ministers in last week, didn't he But they felt threatened by that. You see they didn't feel that he was asking for their support. They felt he was saying to them, you better back me or I'm going to fire you So it didn't have a good you know Comradeee kind of feel to it at that meeting. Yeah, I'm just saying that he did do that. And then when we're at the G seven, he actually I think had a call with colleagues whilst he was out there. So they are tryrying to win over the party. But it's what someone said to me that is close to Kir Starmer. They said In all of this discussion as Andy Burnham and his team sort of decide how it is going to go, they underestimate Kir Stahmer's agency in it in that if he does not want to go and he wants to dig in, then the party have to force him out. And that means mess because it means resignations, it means the government collapsing It means you know dozens of MPs. Do you remember the days of chaos as Boris Johnson was gradually dragged out of number ten? And of course Andy Burnham doesn't want that because he doesn't want to start his premiership under those terms. It would be disastrous for Labour who had a go at the Tories, who made it really their entire election campaign about the chaos of the Tories, the irresponsibility of the Tories, the way they change leaders of disrespect the country. And then Labour play that out. So Starmer in a way I guess the hope from the Bernen Kryd is that Starmer you is too honorable to do that, that he would sort of read the writing on the wall in in the interest of the country and the party, that he would make this dignified exit. But I just don't know what's in his mind. I was not when I spoke to him at the G seven, that was not a guy in any form that looked to me like he was going to walk away and allow Andy Burnham in partly because I don't think his starmer thinks that Andy Burnham would do as good a job as him. He might accept that Andy Burnham politically is a better communicator, that he can attract people that he can with audience. But I think on the meat and bones of Foreign policy, immigration policy, economic policy, I genuinely think Kir Stahmer thinks he is a better prime Minister than Andy Berham would be. And if you actually, as Prime Minister believe that, are you going to give way I think he's also a constitutionalist in that He feels that he got elected he became prrime Minister And it's a five year term. And he's doing all these important things, including delivering on the manifesto. And therefore, it's not right for him to walk away We've gone around the houses a bit with Berham Starmer. We're not entirely sure how it's going to play out. but Harriet, you said something intriguing earlier about some sort of D day at PMQ's. P produce aaura hair to this episode of electral Dunction in a moment, but I'm just interrupting the podcast to remind you about our new members club You will have heard Beth Eet and Harriett talk about Sky News inssider a lot lately It's twollars ninet nineents month and you get an extra episode from us every Tuesday You might have seen already that Jess Phillips is back. She's back on the podcast of some of those members only episodes. As part of your subscription, you will also get these Friday episodes completely ad free. And if you listen to our Sister podcast Trump one hundred, or if you're interested in our new Sky News podcast Stuff Matters with Eir Conway, you can get add free listening and bonus episodes to both of those shows too. 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Ccel anyt timee, effective at the end of the billing period Okay, that's enough for me back to Bethen arearria When you're a maintenance engineer in a beverage manufacturing plant You keep production lines moving and quality on track because there is no room for slowdowns With Granger's vast selection of high quality motors, sensors, belts, and hard to find parts, you can get what you need fast and all in one place, so nothing gets in the way of getting the job done Call one eight hundred ranger, click ranger. com or just stop by Ranger for the ones who get it done SumTack presents Uncertainty strikes I was surrounded. The aisle and the options were closing in There were paint rollers, satin and matte finish, angle brushes and natural bristles. There were too many choices. What if I never got my living room painted What if I couldn't figure out what type of paint to use? What if I just used thumb tack I can hire a top rated pro that knows everything about interior paint. Easily compare prices and read reviews. Thumbtack knows Homes Download the app today Well, I think there's various things that are going to happen which are going to focus attention there's going to be Andy swearing in on Monday, which will be a sort of huge event There'll be the question of when he's going to make his maidens speech, I would imagine. he would want to make his maiden speech in the House of Commons right away. You then get to Prime Minister's questions on Wednesday Damm are going to be doing Prime Mister's questions as if nothing's happening when Andy Burnham is sitting on the back benches. There'll be all the sightings of Andy Burnham in the tea room I just think if you're concerned about good government. you need to be whether you're Ker Starmer, West Streeting or Andy Burnham, if you're concerned about good government and not doing irreparable damage to the Labour Party. you want this to be done in a te and ultimately, politics and government is a team thing. What you're saying is you think that the idea that this drag I think's going to come to a head will come to a head quite. I think it needs to because ministers need to be at work, at their desks and going around the country doing things not actually involved in a long drawn out knock down. I mean struggle. They can have a hustings in the PLP and then when the PLP votes for who they prefer then that person goes forward and all the others drop out so there is no contest W. I think that is a much better way of doing it because otherwise what happens is you get Kir Stahmer shoved out the back door Andy Burnham comes in the front door and is the prrime minister and it's like Well, how did that happen? Because the thing about nominations and MPs signing nominations is that a nomination is just putting somebody into the process. It's not endorsing them. And Andy Burnham is going to have to ask those labour MPs to do very difficult things. It's going to be very tough. and in order to command their loyalty He needs some legitimacy. But otherwise there's no trace. There's just the by election. And sudden he's walking in the front door of number ten. So I think there does need to be some grounding of this. but I don't think it's going to be a long drawn out process. I think it will have happened by Prime Minister's questions. I mean, I do know that Andy Burnham has been whisked away and he's going to spend some time with his family this weekend ote one of his allies on a vow of silence. So he is going to ground for a couple of days. The PM did say that he was going to speak to Andy Burnham next week. Andy Burnham's team said that he will speak to Starmut next week. so we need to wait and watch for that. But We cannot leave this pod. We cannot without talking to Ruth two trips in the minib bus Davidson Dean South Bring it Emries Davidson, takeake it away. I mean, come on. what happened in Aberdeen South Well I have to say there was a bit at the very start of this pod where Harriet talks about the unbelievable result of Andy Burnnham in Makerfield. and I was thinking it kind of was believable. He's quite a big name and it was already a labour seat. in terms of talking about unbelievable results. Aberdeen South is the first Westminster by election gain for the Tories in Scotland since nineteen sixty seven since before I was born. We were coming from a third. The SMP had a four thousand person four thousand vote head start. We cuffed them by six thousand votes in the end. We had a twenty five percent increase in the vote. got to nearly Half the all voters there, we squeezed pretty much Everyone. It was a fourteen and a half percent swing from the SMP to us and just years. So it was a really big really good result for us. It's put a pep in the step after a very difficult set of Hollywood elections for us. It's put a pep in the step of all the Scottish Conservatives. and I'm also having to eat a bit of humble pie. And I'll tell you why, notot because I didn't get involved and help out and I did and the whole party piled into Aberdeen South and ran an exemplary campaign and Douglas Lumston will make an excellent MP But because I have previously criticized the work rate and tempo of Kemmy Baydenach. and I'm going to have to be fair to her and say, she really pulled out all the stops on this. She flew up three times in five weeks. She made sure when the coffers were empty because we just fought in a national Scottish Hollywood election that there was money there to fight, she sent her Chief executive up to be in Scotland for the entire time. She foregrounded oil and gas as the main sort of topic, which is what it was. She made sure it was mentioned in Westminster. She was raising it in the chamber so it was getting played back into the constituency in the seat. So to be fair to her, she absolutely leant into this one and look at the result. think as the only party that comes out with a gain, if we hadn't done that, there was a huge danger for us, which was, you know Andy Burnham as crown King of the Northy marches on London, reform come in second, we lose our deposit. and suddenly Farage says, oh yeah, but at least we're the challenge to the Labour Party and the Tories are no longer a national party, which is the line he's tried to use before. Actually, you can't use that now. and there is a template here for how to win in future. clear economic message making sure you get the right candidates in the right place that are able to speak and are well known and are popular is the way Douglas is as a former council leader, a former current MSP, know there is a template here for how we can win back and how we can build in constituencies of place and also fight the air war on constituencies of purpose. in this case It was oil and gas. Yeah, I mean, a massive win for the Cervatives and given of the forunes of the partarty of late with reform, just kind of eclipsing the Cervatives in so many parts of the country. I mean, it really must have felt good that win, Ruth, must have felt good It did And also one of the surprises as well is that the third by election that happened, the Arborth and Brroughty Ferry one, N nobody's really talked about because it was an SMP seat. It was likely to remain an SMPC. It did remain an SMPC. What was really interesting about it was that's the one that Labor were the challenger for. Yes, we were coming from Thd in Aberdeen South, but everyone knew it was Aa versus the SMP What's really interesting is that Labor put a bit of resource into that and they fell from second to fourth And I think that Picking over the bones in Scottish labour of what's happened in both of these by elections is really going to take some doing because it's a canary in the coal mine, particularly coming so close after, again for the sixth time in a row, votes and seats going down in the Hollywood election just sort of six, seven weeks ago. I mean, three fascinating by elections, and actually I'd like to come back to the idea of progressive voters and what they did in Makerfield basically it became