Nigel Farage and the Reform Scandal

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Hello and welcome to Electoral Dysfunction with me, Bethg B, M Ruth Davidson, and me Harriet Harman. And it is Friday morning, The weekend comeeth We are in the London inferno and we have Ruth Davidson with us who's never coming back until it cools apparently. I literally don't know how you people don't here live like this. I don't know how we live like this either. I'm at puddle. It's just herrific. I have to say, I think it's really good for our discussion that we've got somebody who isn't a Londoner and we've got Ruth is absolute amazing and up in Scotland, but it's even better when she's down here. I know I love it' so great. I knew Ruth was coming in today because as I was scrolling Instagram last night I was like, Ohh, Ruth Davidson's on the terrace in the commons or in the law. which I never ever do in Parliament. to be honest, but I just wanted to check Doulas Lumson or and your NPD. will checklection your election. It made me really excited because I was like, well, if she's in London in the evening, that means she's definitely not going to go home she's coming for the Hot. So here we all are. I'm actually in my summer clothes now. I'm actually got the wearing. I've got my legs out. I sort of never really understood why like women generally wear floaty dresses that are made out of like such light material that it just wafts. Now I understand. But look, it is hot in London pololitical temperature is not cooling either, is it? I mean, goodness me, things are slowly coming more into focus about what the country could look like under a Burnham administration. And we're going to get into that a bit. I actually spoke to Darren Jones this week. He is the chief seecretary to the Prime Minister, so one of Starmmer's closest and strongest allies Now he confirmed this week that he will not be challenging Andy Burnham for the Labour leadership. And of course, if Kir Starmer wasn't standing and he basically wouldn't, those that were still back in Starmer, if they had wanted a contest and many did, Darren Jones would have been the guy, but he is not going to stand And now what we're seeing is everyone's kind of trying to get behind Burnham, including Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor who doesn't look like she's going to stay in number eleven in the treasury, but probably wants to stay in Cabinet. But there's lots of talk about what's going on between her and Starmer and We might get a bit into that in this episode, but we also want to look at what a Burnham prrime minister would mean. We want to get into what his first hundred days could look like, what he's going to do for the economy. We're going to get a big pitch on that. The first big Burnham speech is coming next week and it's going to be on the economy because we don't know really that much about what Burnham is gonna do, do we? No. We really don't because he's not He told what his teams going be so we cant read rules in terms of what policy change is going to be like. And when things are obviously very certain for Andy Burnham, he's going to become Pime Minister. They then correspondingly become very uncertain for everybody else. and everybody is completely unsettled, whether they're cabinet ministers or junior ministers or MPs and all their staff unsettled as well not knowing whether they're going be getting a promotion or being redundant. I can't overstate the amount of turmoil and unsettlement that actually happens. There is paralysis in terms of policy making and delivery. And it's not just been a big week for Kirst Starmer leaving, for Andy Burnham coming, for whoever else is looking for a job But also it was quite a big and quite a difficult week. for Nigel Farage, he did a media round, post Make a Field. It was almost kind of billed as ten years on from Brexit and a bit of a lap of honour in terms of being one of the key movers and shakers behind that. It turned into a whole series of interviews all about that five million pound donation, whether it was declared, about the investigation that's going on to it. He got unbelievably shirty. H main Line of defense seemed to be it's nobody's business. I'm not telling you how I've spent it. I might have spent it on Ferraris, he said several times. I could have put it on the horses. We can talk about the wider significance of that and also about what the bo elections mean for the reform surge and whether they're still surging. And I think this is really the week we'll look back on as the week when Farage and reforms momentum finally was checked. But before we do all of that, just a reminder that we are podding our little hearts out at the moment notot only because there's so much news, but because we are doing an episode every Tuesday for our subscribers where we really get behind the scenes on politics at the moment. We will do a little plug. And mention our exclusive discount code at the end of this pod, but all the details are in the episode description. and also it's so hot. all you can do this weekend is lie down and listen to podcasts, so you might as well listen to us. I love speaking to you guys twice a week instead of once a week. But on to today. So as discussed, Starmer resigned on Monday biggest questions hanging over the immediate future has been, will there be a quick coronation of Andy Burnham or will he be facing a leadership challenge? And I think in the last couple of days, we've kind of seen where we're going with that. Yeah. I mean, as you were saying at the top, Harriet, the biggest moment actually of the week after the Prime Minister resigned was that moment when an hour later, Wes Streetin said, I'm not standing because he had been challenger and then you're thinking o the Burnham coronation is pretty nailed on. and then this week It folded like a cheap card table? Is that that harsh? Yeah mean I mean, it was pretty quick, wasn't it? Everyone folded. I mean the momentum is such of Burnham. I think everyone saw the rise of the wall. And then Darren Jones, it was Tuesday. I was actually it was boiling and I was slowly going down the escalator to get on the tube and my phone rang and it was Darren Jones you want to do an interview? shouldould we do an interview? and I kind of just turned around and went back up the escator back the escalator and then just walked into the office, got changed because also I was a hot sweaty mess, put on something that wasn't creased and messy. And then we just did an interview. I mean, it was not a prepared interview and he said He was not going to stand. Andy Burnham was clearly going to win any contest if there was w. So it was not in the best interest of the country or the Labour Party. And he said that he'd seen Andy Burnham and he'd been reassured on the economic policies and plans of the Burnham incoming administration and that matters because Jones was the chief seecretary to the Treasury, right? So there's quite a lot of MPs, I think, concerned about the economic direction of a Berham goovernment. He talked to me about over a hundred MPs, either who want a contest and or are concerned about economic policy and are not going to just kiss the ring, so to speak, of the King of the North. The point is Burnham actually has to do some outreach with his MPs. I think when you saw that selfie picture that he took on Monday on the steps of Westminster Hall in the Houses of Parliament Look at all those MPs crowding in there, more or less four hundred of them all trying to be in that selfie picture. And I think what it was is the enthusiasm and relief that MPs feel that actually labour can be winners again, that reform can be beaten. Now he needs to keep that momentum going. and obviously there are some people who feel that Starmer was really hard done by and those who are worried about what the policy direction is going to be going forward. But overwhelmingly, people are positive and want him to succeed. That doesn't mean he hasn't got work to do. He has. Like the palpable relief and hope within labour members in the corridors. you can feel it. You can feel attention has almost dissipated Labor MPs feel p the countries, we've had lots of messages from our listeners actually on this. So there's one here from James, who's been in touch to talk about what the kind of whole period in this instability within the Labour Party looks like from the outside. He says, I'm so angry, labour was meant to be stability, but they're not. In any other job, adults muck along for the greater good without whispering or coo We've now proved that the Labour Party is as self serving as the Tories were. As a first time labour voter, I don't agree with a lot of the policies, but if we're bypassing a public vote, I begin to understand the burn it all down argument. I see no reason why Burnham is parachuted in and forced upon the public. Total arrogance to crown someone into number ten with no public mandate or leadership pitch. Again, it feels that politicians are just concerned for their own long term job prospects with no care for the public No wonder respect for politicians is brackets wrongly rock bottom. Well, in the messages we've received, there's been a lot of people protesting about the fact that Andy Burnham won't face a contest to be leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister. He'll just go straight in with what is being described as a coronation, but also people protesting that there's not going to be a general election There's a change of prrime minister, which usually happens at a general election, but here we've got a different prime minister and nobody's voted. And this is what many people are saying, but this is what David said. He says, If Burnham does end up with the keys to number ten and does drastically want to change what Starmer has been doing, the right thing to do would be to call a general election As much as I think this would be the worst thing possible, but to retain any credibility as a party, Burnham, if elected, should go to the country. Well of course he's not even being elected. There's going to be a coronation I think David and James have vocalising a lot of what people have said to me, not people in the bubble, but people live in their lives which The massive legitimacy issue that Andy Burnham has here. He might be loved in Greater Manchester, but the rest of the country don't really know who he is, what he is. I'm going to be a bit contrarian here because obviously I'm biased because my mom was from the constituency of Makefield, so I'm all there for it. But you know, he goes on and on about the North and the people of the North. He's going to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom And it just feels a bit exclusionary to a lot of people and people like, whoo the hell are you? Well, in these circumstances, the party and the government are inevitably going to pay a price for two reasons. Firstly, because people don't want instability. And in fact, we promise that we wouldn't have instability. We promiseed that we wouldn't have a changing of prime ministers. That's what people didn't like under the previous Tory government and we said we were going to be different. So that's the first price you pay And the second price you pay is the legitimacy issue, which is here's this new person walking into number ten. Hey, nobody asked me, how did that happen? But those are things which Andy Burnham will have to overcome. So no snap election I think there's downsides either way, but I think he's unlikely to call an immediate general election because he wants to get on with governing and he wants to keep that big majority and all those members of Parliament. Many of them have been calling themselves in worried tones, I'm going to be one of those one term MPs. They don't want to be a one term MP, but they even less want to be a two year term MP. I mean, Ruth, it's interesting because we did a PMQ's panel on Sky News and we had a conservative MP on the panel and he was like, I don't want to snap election. And normally the opposition, if the government's in turmoil go w, like let's just call for an election endlessly. but for the Conservatives, it's not in their interests at the moment. Can we have a general election, please? becausecause our democracy is not a game of past the parcel Oh, actually I don' think that. The Dputy Prime Minister David Lamey thinks that or he did. we twenty twenty two. H we go. the receipts. I've got the receipts. Rishy Sunak's been crowned by Tory MPs. It's a coronation not an election, says Angela Rayner, fuming All without saying a single word about what he'd do as Prime Minister to address this crisis. He has no mandate. The British people have had no say, hashtag general election now Oh here we go, Andy Burnham. I think this hashtag needs to be trending tonight, donon't you? hashtag General election now. So if it was sauce for the goose back in twenty twenty two, why is it not sauce for the Gander now, Harriet Why is the Labour Party not being massive hypocrites here? It's not good to have things that you say in opposition and then you don't do in government. and this is one of those classic things. Funnily enough, you will not find anything you can read out from me on that No because. Well, you know, on the one hand, when you're in opposition and you're leading in the opinion polls, you always want a general election The Tories don't want a general election now because they're behind in the opinion polls. But it's not good to be saying one thing and doing another. But actually above all, what needs to happen is Andy Burnham needs to be a successful prime minister to tackle the problems this country faces. you And they are big I know he'll be savor in the win, but oh my God. what he's got coming at him. He doesn't look daunted, though, does he It looks as though he knows it's going to be big You that little quip when he was taking the oath, and a member of Parliament called out from the opposition, he's not the Messiah in that moment of silence after he'd taken the oath He called back I'm just a naughty boy. Do you remember from the life of Brother But you have to be very relaxed to actually be able to quit like that. And look, we've talked a bit about Burnham needing to ratchure up some sorts of achievements. If he's runner makeak a field by election saying that he wants to bring change and finally deliver for people in a way that labour hasn't done He's going to have to come in and he's got this quite difficult dance of trying to stay within the confines of a manifesto so he doesn't break the labour manifesto with the public. but also be radical enough to signal to the public that he is a change prime minister. because there was one other person that talked a lot about being a change prime minister and that was Kir Star and look how it's ended for him Harriet, what do you see because I imagine you've been hitting your phone and talking to a lot of people because the amount of chatter in the Labour partarty about what might Burnham do is off charts, There's loads of people that don't really know, but I imagine you are probably someone well I know you are someone that's well informed because you know everyone and they work for you Well, I think the first thing is he's going to need to make those first one hundred days count. And you'll remember that there was a lot of criticism of Kir Starmer is that he didn't seem to have a first one hundred day plan I think he could do something which is both business friendly, but also shows the real concern there is around the country of young people who are not getting first jobs, not getting training and education. I mean, one of the things he could do is an emergency package for young people where he could, for example, take the national employers national insurance contributions down just for the hospitality sector. because that's a big impployower of young people. That both looks business friendly, but it also could be a response to the Alan Milburn report, which is to actually help the labour market be more friendly to young people. I think he should do something about the nature of politics, cleaning up politics. I think a bill which actually stops huge donations, which actually bans crypto donations, which are very difficult to trade. so you can't tell when people sending in money to this country from abroad. So a bill on cleaning up politics would be a good thing to do right now and would certainly undermine Nigel Farage and also the structures of the country. And here, one of the things I think would be emblematic, quite symbolic and good, would be to do some proper Lords reform, which is about less privilege, more scrutiny. If you show that actually you want your second chamber to be a scrutinizing chamber, not a privilege per I think that would be good. And above all, he's got to make all the right appointments in number ten. so it's like really squeaky, clean, non factional. But he'll be knowing all of these things and then of course, get the right balance in his cabinet. That's very important. You know I've been talking to some people around Cabinet and the top of the party because he's been having quite a lot of one on one meetings with people and meeting MPs and he's clearly, if not giving specific policies, he's sort of setting out the direction of travel. and the things that I've picked up are actually a bit similar to some of the things you've said, Harriet, which is trying to do politics differently trying to avoid factionism. I think devolution is going to be a big element of this. You know he talks about Manchester and devolution and devolution is a route to economic growth, better delivery. So I think There might be spending policy machinery of government changes that tilt in that direction. And then what I'm less clear on is the public policy side of things. And I think what I'm really looking to is this economy speech next week where He will I imagine talk about economic growth and the levers he wants to pull to really begin to deliver economic growth. So it rewards people around the country in those communities like the constituency of Makerfield that he keeps talking about being left be There's a lot riding on this speech and I feel a bit anxious about it, but talking about Scotland and Wales, he's going to have to straight away after he's becomes Pime Minister. after he comes back for a palace, he's got to very quickly go to Scotland and Wales. He's not just the Prime Minister for Manchester. He's the Prime Minister for Scotland, Wales, a whole of England. in Cabinet, et ceter that have talked to Burnham is that because of the speed of the handover, so you know there was an expectation, I think in team Burnham that they would have a longer transition, but Star has set the timetable so as if there's no contest in three weeks So he's literally getting into office and he's having to build the team in the middle of it and the policy. And I mean, someone said to me in terms of public policy, they're not sure how much thought has gone into things beyond this spech I mean, he has started access talks now, which will be helpful in terms of you know having talks with addial Explain that. So this more naturally happens on the run up to an election and all the party leaders that will be competing that election that could conceivably become prrime Minister, even if they're polling way And all the cabinet ministers and cabinet ministers all get access to senior civil servants to be talked through basically to lift the bonnet of the car and see what's actually happening in the country in the departments that they would take over and it gives the officials an idea of what's coming. so it works both ways to be helpful both to the political side of things, but also to the machinery of state, which is the permanent machinery of state if there's going to be a change. But can I give you some advice for Andandy Burnham? Because I think what you've said there iss a couple of things want to pick up on We have seen from Kirst Aaror that governing is hard, right And he had five years to prepare for government and pretty much fluffed his first hundred days So asking Andy Burnham to get ready for government in three weeks is enormous. So in terms of things that he could do that would either give him headroom or give him money or be net neutral and show forward momentum, but we'd give him headroom to pay for the stuff that he wants to do. I think there's a few things he could do. so He could immediately ditch the Chagos Island deal. public hates it. It costs money So that saves you money. You can frame it within the security arguments going on right now in the military investment. So that's something that could be done to save money. The North Sea reive the consent for the jackdaw and Rosebank fields it gives you greater revenue. It also signals to oil and gas that it is worth continuing to invest. Big expensive things that you can kick down the road. social care is the third rail of politics in the States. It's becoming the third rail here. so that's looking after people as they age and an aging population Get a royal commission in train, tie the Tories into it show that you're different, that you're reaching out, that you want to have a national conversation about this. And also the authenticity, the English devolution that you're talking about, that's net revenue neutral over time, but it also answers some of the questions about why country feels like politicians don't understand them and they're so remote. so put more powers closer to people. You can do all of that in your first hundred days. Yeah withithout costing you a penny, really? Yeah. I mean, I really think that there will be a something on cost of living and a real retail offer to show people that he hears them that life is hard I think there'll be stuff on devolution and I think there'll be stuff on cleaning up politics. I mean What about and bringing forward the Louise Casey review on social care because I think people felt that the timetable was quite long. so if he's bringing it forward he's committedcial he has. He's committed to social care Also, the other thing I'm watching out for, and I think we might get more of this in this economy speech next week is he went on and on, didn't he about oversight and control of important critical infrastructure. and he talked a lot about Manchester and the buses and the council taking over the contracts of the buses so that there was a proper service and fares were kepped. I really think that there was I think he wanted to do it with. He's got to show what his priorities are, that he's different and that he listens But I think that there's only a limited appetite for people talking about their position and what they might be going to do much further on down the line. That's why I think this thing about national insurance contributions is so key. I mean, it raised something like twenty four billion pounds. He can't give all that back and say, okay, we got it wrong, We're going to give back, employers the full national insurance change that but actually could pick a sector, which is a sector which is a big employer of young people and say, I'm going to sort that thing out for young people. So I wouldn't suggest there would be a blanket reduction reinstating the position that there was, but actually you could do a sectoral thing. But what my main point is just in retail is that it can't be replaced largely by AI. So this area that takes young people in. Exactly. So it's not like entry office jobs, which can be, but you physically need people to work in restaurants and bars and all the rest of it Yeah, but my main point is that he's got to have some things which are actually doing things not just talking about things. these are the things I'm going to do right away. So one of the policies that he had in the Makerfield by election campaign, he did talk about cutting business rates for pubs. and the argument was that it was about high streets, it was about communities, it was a place where people come together I was an event last night which was a pub association event and Louise Hig, who is obviously his right woman who is expected to become the Duchy of Lancaster role in government. And that basase is when you run the cabinet office. So you're the COO the chief operating officer sort of running the machinery of government. She came to this event And talked a lot about trying to help pubs and communities and businesses. And it's so interesting Harriet, talking about cutting lash insurance for the hospitality sector because that helps young people. But that that also dovetails into what he's already talked about, which is trying to build communities and support businesses matter to people in the places that they live because actually and we all know this and it doesn't get talked about as much in Westminster, but the kind of slow death of High streets and towns and communities does add to this feeling of being left behind. The figures on this are frightening actually, and they're not talked about enough. So there's between one to two pubs shot every day in Britain. permanently closed and three nightclub venues a week.. So between what' that? over five hundred, six hundred pubs and clubs shot a year in the United St And how many young people first started their experience in the world at work, washing up Washing up glasses washing up plates in a cafe Fom age twelve to sixteen I worked to my local golf club, but I'd already done fruit picking. That's so conservative Well, no I. Well, I lived in a village so there wasn't really that many. And then when I was sixteen I went to a kind of coffee shop and then I went to bar when I was a student. But yeah, like kind of entry level service level, casual labouring of on the high street in the heart of the village or the town. exactly. Look Soa'm not running in the rook for the Chancellor isn't it? I mean's a big ide. You know, I think we should float that one. We could make it the truth just by saying it a lot. manifesting at the Mifesting manifesting But let's get on to the cabinet because whilst the policy is a bit woolly at the moment, what is being a bit more discussed as well in Westminster is who is going to be in the top team. The kind of cabinet bingo is just the balls are flying around at the moment about who's in, who's out, who's up, who's down But what did happen this week was he did appoint a chief of staff called James Parneell. And I know for all of you out there, you're like, no ide did, all these backroom boys and girls. But Parnell is interesting because he was a cabinet minister. he's really close to Burnham. I know him actually a little bit and from he worked BBC because he left government when he was a mere cub. He came into politics at thirty one, exited at about forty, when often had a massive job at the C thenen he went into I think he ran a university or University of the Arts in more than me. Then he did that. and then he went and did a massive PRE job in a big corporate global firm. I mean, he's a serious operator and he's a serious person, Harry, you must know, James. tellell me a bit about him and what you think about this appointment and the significance of it? Yeah, well, I was in cabinet with him, so I've known him for many years and have worked with him I think the most important thing for the person who's running number ten to be doing is to get a really excellent team of good people in order to be able to deliver for the Prime Minister and to be on the same page as the Prime Minister. I think he will assemble an excellent team. I mean, you know there was all the terrible turnover of number ten of people not working out. either the vibe with Kama didn't work out or there was falling outs within the team. I think that he will represent stability for Andy Burnham. I think he'll create a good team. Now when he was in government, he was very much on the kind of ultra Uber Blairite side of things. He'll need to make sure that the team he assembles is not factional I think after what happened with Labour Together and Morgan McSweeney, I think there is no appetite in the Parliamentary Labour Party for factionalism. and I think to be fair, that is not Andy Burnham's style either What have you heard, Harriet? There's all this chat that David Milliband is being in Well I feel a bit anxious talking about this because somebody who I massively admire is Yvette Cooper and she is currently foreign Secretary And therefore it's a bit terrible talking about her job as if she's not existing, but there has been that rumour that Andy Berham might bring David Milaban back from New York where he currently is with the International Rescue Committee. put him in the House of Lords and make him foreign Secretary of course a foreign secretary in the House of Lords with David Cameron, and he did a pretty good job there. David Miliband, the last time that he was foreign Scretary, when he was in the Cons, was very well thought of. Yes People loved working for him. A bit like William Haig was somebody that had followership within the rank and file of the foreign office. David Miliband absolutely has followership. Yeah. We've got so many cabinet ministers to get through those.. I mean, I want to talk to you about the Chancellor because There's a whole thing about Ed Milliban versus, which we'll get into. but first, I really, really want to ask Harry you about Rachel Reeves and I just have picked up in the past few days, like proper rifts between her and Starmer. There has been a lot of talk and Badnot raised it and embarrassed both of them. It was excruciating in the comments on Wednesday that Rachel Reeves did not stand outside of her own house number eleven with other members of staff and cabinet ministers that were loyal to Stalmer when he stood down on Monday, but she did turn up the selfie with Andy Burnham, it has been noted and it was used as an attack on both her and Kirst Amer Prime Minister's questions. One MP said to me yesterday that Kirst Aarmer was upset that she was blocking some of the things he wanted to do, that she appeared to be trying to curry favour with Andy Berham with stories knocking about about what she would do, you know his chance in the future and attempt to get Andy Burnham to keep her on board. I picked up that Kirst Starmer had felt betrayed by that someomeone told me that she was asked not to stand outside of number ten. Now I have to say, because I do always check things out. I don't just take it because obviously there's always two sides for a story. But someone around Rachel R says to me, it's not true. They haven't fallen out. They've spoken in the past few days don't read anything into her not being outside number eleven that it was a difficult day for a lot of people, but it's been over interterpreted And they give a reason as to why she wasn't there No heard I've had All I've been told that it was a difficult day. She might have been very upset. I don't know. And obviously Kir Starmer publicly backed her. in the Cons, but there's something on, I think they've fallen out. Harriet, do you want to shed any light on that? I honestly don't know what happened about why she didn't stand outside her house to see off Kir Stahmer when he was doing his final speech in the podium, saying he was going to resign, but that she did a short while later, go and be in the selfie with Andy Berham. And I don't know about that, but I do know that she does really feel and I think she's entitled to feel that she was part of paving the way for labour to get into government. I think that the business side of things, the financial sector being confident that she would be a competent, prudent chancellor. And also I know that she wants to stay on because she feels she has brought stability. the economy is starting to turn around. But we've all heard the reports that actually Andy Burnham is going to have a new chancellor and he needs to have somebody absolutely on the same page as him. you just said is really interesting to me. So she's struggling because she wants to stir as Chancellor and because Star is going she can't I think it's really hard for anybody in labour that's seeking to lead labour to think that Rachel Reeves is a net asset in terms of reputation and that might not's fair. but I think it is true in terms of what to stay. I mean, she's obviously not going to be able to stay on as Chancellor. She might have another role in cabinet, but she's always wanted to be Chancellor. So whether she would take a lesser role I don't know But what is really clear is there's an almighty discussion debate r, callall it what you want in Labor at the moment about whether or not Ed Milliband should be Andy Burnham's Chancellor with genuine splits over this. I can tell you what I've picked up, which is Ed Milliband's clearly gun into do it. He has experience in the treasury. He clearly wants the role. He's been advising Andy Burnham on economic policy and is kind of plugged in. Andy Burnham and Ed Milliband are very aligned Ed Milliband is someone that is quite a radical politician that bangs heads together and gets things done. I've also picked up, however, that there are some around Andy Burnham in his inner cps of people advising him, MPs advising him that are concerned about an Ed Milliband in number eleven because the markets are not sure. In fact the markets don't seem to like it very much absolutely does not like it. And I think there are also some people that think it will give Ed Milliband too much power and that actually he could become a chancellor that drives division. know It could be a kind of Gordon glare set up where someone very powerful goes into the treasury and then causes Burnham difficulties. For what it's worth, I personally think that for Burnham, whoever he picks, this idea that it's going to be like a Wes Streeting character, I just cannot see Andy Burnham going, You know that guy that was about to challenge me that I don't know that well. He's not really on my wing of the party. I'll just make him my chance it does. I just don't think that is I just don't think it's credible. And I actually put that to someone very close to Andy Burnham and they agreed with me. I mean, Harriet, Ed worked for you, you know, Ed inside out. What do you think about the idea of Ed being Chancell Well I think there are a number of names in the frame, as you've said, Beth. There's Were Streeting, there's Darren Jones, the Shibana Mahmud, although she's apparently wanting to stay at the home office, as well as Ed Milliband. And I think really you need to look at the characteristics of the person. It's got to be somebody who's on the same page as the Pime Minister. You cannot have econom policy division and strife between number ten and number eleven. You've also, I think, if you're Andy Burnham, you want a Chancellor who is going to be radical business as usual. You know, the treasury likes to be the deficit reduction department, it needs to be the growth generating department. You need somebody who's radical, but also somebody who's Now we established our credibility with the financial markets in nineteen ninety seven by doing that huge policy announcement about the independence of the Bank of England. So Clearly, Ed Milliband is radical. He's also experienced. He chaired Gordon Brown's Council of Economic advisers when the treasury was being very successful. so he knows the treasury inside out. And the question is What he would need to do to make himself credible, something big to show that he understands the fiscal cliff edge we're on And that's what he's would have to do. I see I'ilil. But of course, I'm not saying anybody would love it ores would absolutely love it because I think it's going to take Kemmy a while to get a handle on to attack and how to frame him. But they've already started the framing of Ed Billiband. They've done it really successfully about how he has ideology over people's needs and the stuff that he's done at energy and he's pushed up bills and how some of the businesses that are failing. It's not just staffing costs that they're failing for. it's because business costs have gone up, their utilities costs have gone up this idea that he is the sort of minister that is obstinate and digs his heels in and he says no rather than being the sort of minister that helps facilitate what the country needs, that he puts his own views about what's right ahead of what the country needs. I mean, I think it is an absolute gift. And also they can keep coming back to the fact that they've already beaten him, that he was a failure. While Andy is doing cool centrist dad and's quite hard to take down Ed Meliband is a wounded gazelle in the back of the headd. If he becomes a Chancellor, I promise you you'll see pivoting at PMQs that won't go after the Prime minister, but it'll go after the Chancellor. Then the other people talked about is Pat McFadden because obviously he understands the treasury. Avette Cooper, because she obviously worked in the treasury as well and very senior W Street in, I cannot see it and then Shabana Mahud. But Sabana Mahud, as I understand it really wants to stay at the home office, right? And so I'm like, well hang on. So youve got all your compromiseed candidates or do you just go for Ed? Why is a vette not in the running? She's not being talked about. No, you have, but in terms of all of the commentary I've read in the papers of who the runners and riders are and she's smart, she's experienced, she's worked in the treasury before. She's senior, she's a grown up around the table women and it's quite you know, we've talked about this male thing as well. There would also be a delicious irony in ofvette Cooper actually becoming Chancellor when Ed Balls never did. were the shadow by the boss. Yeah Eactly. It's worth it just for that. I think let's just it for that. I think the fact that she hasn't been talked about doesn't mean that she isn't a candidate, but she too is somebody who's got experience of the treasury. She is radical. She was behind all of the construction of the New Deal policies in the nineteen nineties. So I think that the strongest candidates I can see are Evette and Ed Minaban, not Pat McFadden or Wes Streeting And I was going to give you fifty pounds to get the correct answer You mean guessing or who do I think it should be? think it will be? Gessing then, guessing who it will be I don't know who it will be. He do you think it should be I'm caught between Ed and Evette, but I think marginally Ed.. There we go Look, we've done a run through the cabinet, as I said, notothing is decided. it's all up for discussion and it could go in many different ways. Also James Pannell is now in and he will want to say in all of that as Chief of staff. But it's a fascinating discussion and it matters, of course, it matters who's going to take the top jobs because Politics is a team sport and Andy Burnham is going to need all the help he can get when he becomes prime minister, subject to a leadership contest that, which probably won't happen. But let's go to a break and we're coming back and we're going to talk about another man that would want to be Prime Minister Farage, but is he blowing himself up Prouce aaura hair Let to this episod of electral Dunction in a moment, but I'm just interrupting the podcast to remind you about our new members club You will have heard Beth Eth and Harriett talk about Sky News inssider a lot lately It's twollars ninet nineents month and you get an extra episode from us every Tuesday You might have seen already that Jess Phillips is back. She's back on the podcast of some of those members only episodes. As part of your subscription, you will also get these Friday episodes completely ad free. And if you listen to our Sister podcast Trump one hundred, or if you're interested in our new Sky News podcast Stuff Matters with Eir Conway, you can get add free listening and bonus episodes to both of those shows too. It's all in the same bundle as your ED member subscription. You'll also get access to a host of new ways to interact directly with Beth, Ruth, Harriett, Jess, and As the Team, Wh made the podcast In terms and conditions apply, you can only become an insider if you're over the age of eighteen and if you're in the UK. Subscription auto renews at the regular price unless cancelled via my account. Ccel anyt time effective at the end of the billing period. Okay, that's enough for me. backack to Bathroh inara How does a banana trigger a CIA backed coup? Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order LED lights say about the future of humanity H I'm Et Conway and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside This is economics told through the things we think we understand Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Also this week, away from all the machinations of who might be in the fantasy cabinet of Andy Burnham, we might have seen a bit of a turn of events that could prove quite beneficial for the potentially new prime Minister. and God knows you've got to love a lucky general to come in. because the question is has the Fage bubble burst this week? So Nigel Farage in a series of car crash interviews across a whole host of varying media outlets from left to right and back again was challenged over his five million pound gift that he got from the reform UK donor, Christopher Harbourne. It got really tetchy, really shirty, really pugnacious, punching back. he changed his story several times. He also relied on it's nobody's business. It's not the public's business to know details of what he does with that five million pounds if he spent it how he spent it This is about a five million personal gift. He took it in april twenty twenty four before he became an MP again. It was from Christopher Harbourne and the reason that's highly significant is Christopher Harbourne is a cryptocurrency guy. He's a billionaire. He lives in Thailand. He does not live in the UK and he is a massive donor to reform. And in previous incarnations of Farage's various other parties, be that Brexit or UKIip, Harbourne has been a donor and he gave him a five million pound personal donation, as Farage put it before Farage entered the general election campaign. But the cliff was not disclosed. It emerged in twenty twenty six and it's triggered questions about whether he has broken parliamentary rules because If You are in any doubt about a donation, the advice is that you declare it. And now he is really in hot water over this. He's been investigated by the Parliamentary Commissioner for standards in whether he breached MP's disclosure requirements. He's given various explanations for the money. First he said it was for his personal security, then he said it was a reward for Brexit campaigning and now he's stressed it was an unconditional It's nobody's business, what he spends it on and he is really struggling to explain this away. It won't go away. He's avoided interviews. I did one interview with him on the day of the local elections where he got very shuty with me. He kind of disappeared and every time N does a meer aroundound, he's getting pressed on it. I mean, it's pretty sticky situation that he's in, isn't it It is and it comes at a time when the electoral momentum for reform is also appearing to be stalling. So although they're riding high in the opinion poll still, it seems to have tailed off and also they've lost the by election in the last few months in Wales, in Scotland and two in England. So on the one hand, they don't look like the all conquering winners anymore And this problem for Farage of having taken five million pounds from this crypto billionaire itss secret Be the whole point is is that the public need to know paying their MP So if they make a speech or if they ask a question, is it because they've taken money from somebody to do that? And that's why there are very strict rules about transparency. Now he didn't declare this donation when he became an MP. and once it was discovered and put in the public domain, what he should have done is said, well, it was before I became an MP. I know the rules are that you've got to declare things you've received within twelve months of becoming an MP. but I didn't really realize and I didn't really think it was political donation. I thought it was personal. But since you're now telling me I should register it I will register it right away and I'm really sorry. and I will stick to the letter of the rules thereafter, but instead he is fighting the system. And you know what it's like? If somebody's in the dock in a magistrate's court, and they say I didn't do it, I didn't do it, but it's proof they did do it. If they then say, Well, I don't agree with these rules about stopping against theft anyway, they're going to get hammered by the magistrates. And I think that what the Committee on Standards will expect is not only for people to obey the rules, but you've got to respect the regime. You've got to say yes, Parliament does need to make MPs transparent, and you've all got to buy into those rules. And what he is doing therefore is heading himself to a big clash with the Standards commommittee. Now if they decide that he should have registered, he didn't register, and he doesn't apologise and that he's going to be punished, they could say that he's going to have a penalty of more than ten day suspension from the House of Commons. If that is the case, that will trigger an opportunity for a petition in his constituency for them to call for a by election. And at that point if the by election is triggered, Farage can stand in the by election again. but can you envisage a situation where Andy Burnham iss prrime Minister And there's a by election in Nigel Farage his constituency Where Nigel Farage is the candidate. I think there this stuff about taking five million pounds five million pounds is so much money for anybody, let alone people supporting reform. And I think people don't like the idea of somebody getting into politics to make themselves rich, taking money when they're supposed to be doing a public job. So the stakes could not be higher all round on this. And I think he saw from his response that he probably knows that there's going to be a sanction coming. And I think one of the bits that's going to catch him out is that yes, it says anything received within twelve months of becoming an MP should be declared if it relates your political activity, but it also goes on. and the exact wording is, both the possible motive of the giver And the use to which the gift is to be put should be considered. And if there is any doubt, the benefits should be registered. So I think if he instead of digging in, had then gone and registered it as soon as it was raised and said, ye, keep doing your investigation, but I'll register it now. Be everyone knows about it. So there's no reason, but he will not do it. The way it emerged was Jonas uncovered it So it only It turned up this year because someone got the information and then he tried to get ahead of it and give an interview ahead of the guardian break in the story saying, I was given this gift for my personal security. So it would never have come to light if it hadn't been for journalists revealing it. But why this week he got himself into trouble was he didn't stick to the line of it. It was for my personal security. He moved around Maybe it was a reward for Brexit because he likes all of the things I'd done in politics. I can spend it on Ferraris. There was no strings att cach. I can do whatever I like with it. And what the rules say is this idea of what the perceived giver wants from it or what the receiver does with it is material and whether it affects your political activity. And the timeline' important because the five million pounds came and he keeps saying, I wasn't even an MP, I wasn't going to run for MP. But the difference was P got given five million pounds He then said, all right, I'm going to try and get back into Parliament. And then after that, he's spoken at crypto conferences. He said that his party will be the first British political party that will receive crypto donations. He said he wants to change the rules of the Bank of England to be more accommodating to crypto. He's personally referenced companies and currencies that this guy Harborne' in his business portfolio. So there's an argument there that it has affected it. and I think he's in trouble. I think I mean look, this is going to rumble on. There' an investigation. As you said, Harriet, there could be eventually even a recall petition Potentially even a by election depending on how this goes. I personally think the fact that he is so rattled by it, as you said, Ruth, is a reflection of how serious he thinks it is and he's tried to avoid questions on it. It's not going away. But look, he didn't do an interview with Sky News this time around. I did interview him about it, as you know a month or so ago we did on the pod. but this is what he told BBC Breakfast absolutely convinced he's done nothing wrong in any way at all. And Farage said he has taken zero in personal expenses since being elected in july twenty twenty four. and he added, I'm very careful and cautious about these things. I believe it to be a wholly private matter. The Standards Commissioner may take a different view. So that is Nigel Farage's word on this Given that you've both been highly critical, it's only, youve got to give a r to relyly reply. But look, we're out of time for this week. We're going to be Mat next week with our suubbscribers only episode on Tuesday. and it's going to be with me, Harriet and Ruth. And we've all been doing a lot of thinking about what Starmin needs to do in his last week. So we can talk about that and we'll have lots of insider gossip for you all