Final Thoughts on Speculative Transfer Strategy

This is a Voy Escape podcast. You can find all of our travel podcasts from around the world at voyascape. com Today's coffee break Speculative built transfer bonuses. Welcome to Freakent Milers's Coffee Bak, where we focus on a single topic related to miles and points. Each coffee break is limited to twenty minutes or less or your money back Conventional wisdom tells us Don't transfer your points to specific loyalty programs until you have a specific use in mind. And that's important in general because once you do the transfer, you can't get those points back. They don't become transferable again if you change your mind about how you want to use them So, you know, once you transfer to, you know, Avianca life miles or something, you've got to use them as Avianca L miles miles, for example So u That that kind of conventional wisdom has basically gotten us through many, many years of points and miles But then, you know, Bilt came along and started changing things with These huge hundred percentage transfer bonuses that they a fairly regularly offer And, um I think there are aspects of built two point zero, especially. that have made us really question that old conventional wisdom. Yeah, you know now with Bilt two point zero, you can earn lots more built points than you ever could before because you have a two X base earn rate if you've got the palladium card You can earn on rent and mortgage payments potentially now, and you can even pay other people's mortgage with it. Alternatively, you could enable the boosts on the palladium card and be earning essentially three points per dollar on up to twenty five K spend. If you split that up the right way. won't dive into all the details there Plenty of earn opportunities from spending. And then on top of that, you got the Rackaton shopping portal where you can earn points from shopping online that can transfer to built. And if you get built elite status, it'll be one to one transfers. And you got built neighborhood rewards. So you might just dine at a restaurant in your neighborhood and earn built points if you link whatever card it is you use to pay for your dining with built and you can just automatically earn additional points on dining, potentially, pharmacy, other things in your neighborhood. So there are far more ways. And of course, obviously you've got the welcome bonuses on the cards now. So there are more ways to earn points today than there would have been a year ago. So I think a lot of us are stacking up more and more built points, which makes us wonder, okay, well, if we've stacked up a huge pile of built points, whichich bonuses are worth going after Yeah, ye. and another thing that has changed besides the fact that Earning hundreds of thousands of points is no longer a ridiculous idea. Now a lot of people are doing that with Bill two point zero. The other thing that's I think an important factor is that With Bilt two point zero, Bilt has started their big transfer bonuses at one hundred thousand points And so You know, it used to be reasonable to say, well You know, I'm going to hold on to my points until either there's a perfect transfer bonus or until I need, you know maybe hat points, which you'll never see a transfer bonus for. So you know, that made a lot of sense, but now If you're earning hundreds of thousands of points and there's this cap, on the on the hundred K transfer bonuses then like maybe waiting for the perfect transfer bonus isn't a great idea because you're not going to be able to you know, use all of your built points for that perfect transfer bonus if it ever comes around. So to me, that that makes a difference in like how much I want to consider at least, taking advantage of any given transfer bonus, even if I don't have plans for the particular miles or hotel points that that transfer bonus is for. So that really changes things in a fundamental way than ever before. Absolutely. So let's talk about which ones are worth doing rightight after this Jamie writes in Love the show. But I have no idea what you're talking about Please help. That's true. Well this can be confusing and luckily for you, Jamie, we have a beginners' guide that can help. You want to go to frequentmiler dot com slash start here to check out our full beginner's guide. And we're back. So what we're going to do now is we're going to go through each of Bilt's transfer partners and we're going to ask this question If there was one hundred percent transfer bonus available to you, up to one hundred thousand points And u You didn't have, you didn't already have like a massive collection of those points Is it worth doing that transfer bonus prospectively without having any idea how you're going to use those miles or hotel points Yeah. And so when Greg says you don't already have a massive pile of those points, we mean the airline or hotel partner points, right? So you know if you have a massive pile of built points, of course, you're going to be considering these speculative transfer bonuses. But yeah, you know, if you already have two million of something, then you may not want more of it. But we're going to assume like Greg said We don't already have that huge pile of airline miles in a specific program or hotel points and say, okay, well, if we get one hundred percent and we're simplifying there because built oftentimes has multiple tiers, but we're going to keep it simple and just say, one hundred percent transfer bonus, would you or would you not? So let's start with airline programs. and I'll ask you, Greg, if there were one hundred percent transfer bonus to Alaska Atmos rewards Would you or would you not that one up speculatively in a heartbeat. I mean, Alaska is one of Bilt's best transfer partners. Their miles are so valuable for so many things that getting double is a great deal. So absolutely yes. Very good. Southwest Airlines. Well I would probably very seriously consider Southwest, and I don't I find Southwest to be among the most excing miles because they have a pretty fixed value, but they do have a pretty fixed value. So getting one hundred percent transfer bonus would yield great results. And because we have two companion passes in my household, we're very frequently looking at southwest ahead of other airlines. So yep, I would do Southwest. although I think that that is maybe less universal, I mean, would you? I'm more curious about you, I think Yeah, the funny thing is I think I probably would. So with their new assigned seating, I'd be more likely to book Southwest than I would before. Sometimes I'm booking flights for other family members that include Southwest flights And so being able to get that those points so sort of cheaply if you think of it as sort of buying points with your buil points Um That actually would be a great deal when that comes up. So I would do that. All right, Next up is United Airlines What do you think, Nick, would you transfer propectively to United? if there was ever a transfer bonus, which we should caveat that there's certain programs that we don't expect to ever see a transfer bonus to or at least not a massive one. and United is one of those United, yees, so United is one that, like we said, very unlikely. So this is just a theoretical exercise really, I would probably do this. I wouldn't be excited about it because I don't tend to use a lot of United miles for exciting redemptions. However, domestically, I very frequently see flights available for fifteen thousand miles each way. and so essentially paying half that, like seven thousand five hundred bill pointos each way is too good of a deal to pass up. So I wouldn't be wildly excited about it But I would have a hard time saying no. So I think I would probably transfer to United. What about you? I would do it a heartbeat. So United United Miles to me are They're one of the best to have a big pile of Um becausecause you can often they're often like a great program for booking good enough awards. and they're freely cancelable. So like, you know, you're planning some big trip and you're not finding like exactly what you want, book something that's good enough with United Ms and keep watching until something even better comes. And if you also have a united credit card that unlocks better saor business class award availability, and also the discounts that it gives you on award flights these days, then know those miles become even more valuable than they were before. So there's a lot of reasons I actually even though United doesn't necessarily have the best Star Alliance pricing It tends to be okay. and if you can, you know, I find I often use it for these purposes of either flying United Sou because having a card I get availability and better rates or because it's just so useful as a placeholder, you know, for a booking placeholder, things Great points. All right, foreign programs. How do you feel about Air Canada aeropplan? Would you do one hundred percent bonus there Yeah. Air Canada Airplane also is, you know, a really solid program And, you know, it I would have no problem banking basically miles with them at one hundred percent transfer bonus. Yes Yeah absolutely. They got so many airline partners beyond just the Star Alliance that there's just so many opportunities to find an award that fits that yeah, I would take that one in a heartbeat too. Air Frs Caalin Flying Blue. hereere's one where we might disagree. What would you say? Yeah, In fact, I've done it. So there was one and I dumped all my built points at that time for a big transfer bonus to Air France I'd be more hesitant these days. I mean, I often see great deals. and one of the things I love about flying Blue as a family traveler is that kids ages two to eleven get twenty five percent off on long haul awards. So that makes a big difference on the cost of an award. So on the one hand, I very often see good attractive airfrance Kalum flying Bue flights, but on the other hand Man, those surcharges are starting to get to me because I was looking at one just recently, three hundred and sixty seven dollars a person, it would have been. So I mean, we're talking I'm going gonna spend fourteen fifteen hundred dollars in taxes and fees for an award. that yeah, I mean, it would probably still work out to be a deal with one hundred percent transfer bonus. I just don't want to dip into the pocket that far for the taxes and fees for a family of fouress bullish and flying blue right now. if the The surcharges come down a little to where they were before, I might be a little bit interesterested in that one. But I think most people would probably do well with that. so right. What about the AviS programs? So British Airways, FNir, all those Would you do one hundred percent transfer bonus to Oviious? I probably would. And you might say, well, that doesn't make any sense because they have high surcharges too. They do, but there are some opportunities to fly airlines where those where you know, you don't have surcharges. maybe flying in American Airlines award tickets, other short distance one world award tickets using thin air for flights within the United States or within Europe can be a good deal sometimes So I think I'd be more likely to take that because Avios has so many different airlines. You know the Avios program, you can move your Avios from Iberia to British Airways to Qatar to Think of Airlingas, Valiling, maybe, I don't Loganir, there's all sorts of different opportunities. So because of the breadth of opportunities there, I probably would with Ovios. I assume you would U Yeahah, this is a little more on the fence than the others that we've talked about so far, but I think I still would. One thing that you didn't mention that is a good use is British Airways itself. When you want to fly British airways, They often or usually have an option to pay more Avios and fewer taxes and fees on the on the flight. And so I think of this as a way to you know, basically open up those kind of flights. they also, you know, give their members more award space than others. So that combination is very useful Same time, I mean, I don't. have occasion to fly like British Airways that often that it would necessarily be a good investment. But as you said, there's so many different uses that It's likely to be able to use them. One common use that I used to talk about is is Qatar Airways on their own flights, they have like almost they often have like nearly wide open availability at the sort of double price for Q suitite. So instead of paying seventy thousand per person one way, business class to Doha, you would pay one hundred forty thousand and those would be wide open. And so like if you use a transfer bonus to get there, it doesn't feel as painful to spend that much. But they've changed their program now to where if you're going to be booking for yourself and others, you got to jump through a bunch of hoops. So I don't see myself doing that anymore. That's a really interesting point, yeah Very interesting there All right, next up, let's go to Avianca Life Miles. Would you do a specative transfer bonus to Avianca Life Miles? hundred percent. Yeah. I don't know. U I'm going I'm going to yeah, I'm just going to leave that there. I I don't know obvious on the L miles. I mean, you can still get really good deals from it, but there's still plenty of reports of like problems with trying to use the miles and And they have a shorter sort of lifespan than most programs as far as how often you have to like earn more miles or get more miles in the program in order to keep your miles alive, things like that. I'm going put this on the I don't know pile for me. How about you? In a heartbeat. Yeah, I would. And you know all of the things that you the reasons you mentioned not to are valid. I can't you know, come back and combat any of those particular reasons to be hesitant. For me, we end up flying Star Alliance carriers to Europe pretty often and the fact that there's no surcharges is a big advantage. Now you, it's a mixed bag. It's not quite as no brainer as it would have been a year ago because they've like kind of devalued and changed the prices of a lot of awards and gotten rid of some of the pricing anomalies that used to be really exciting and they killed their mixed cabin pricing. There's plenty to be upset about. But on the flip side, even the most expensive awards now, I guess the very most really high at like ninety two thousand, I think each way. So you'd be paying what forty Maybe six thousand each way if you' taking advantage of a one hundred percent transfer bonus. But there's routes that you can book for about seventy thousand miles each way in business class between the US and Europe. So thirty five thousand no surcharges. I don't know. I feel like that's such a no brainer that I would probably take advantage of the one hundred percent transfer bonus and deal with some of the annoyances. and the annoyances are real. I think I mentioned before There was a United flight that I wanted to book this week. It's available to Air Canada Aeropplane. It would be cheaper if it were available to Avanka, but they don't have the one I want. that's. So what you just said about the pricing though, it's very similar to United's pricing for anyone who has a credit card. Yeah. I don't have a United credit card so and I'm over five twenty four No intention to get a United credit card anytime in the foreseeable future. So I'm happy enough with Avianca Iiles. Yeah. there you go Well, it's Sland we don't agree one hundred percent on that. But I mean how boring would it be if we We can't even agree on one hundred percent transfer bonus. That's fun, isn't it? All right, Next up, Cathay Pacific. Would you do the hundred percent transfer bonus there? I probably would not, but It's close. Cathay Pacific has Okay pricing and they have like some sort of sweet spots like lower surcharges on Um on British Airways flights and u They can also book further out in the booking window than some of the other programs we're talking about. So sometimes it gives you a chance to book uh book things that aren't yet available to some like Alaska, for example. Um But I don't know. I've had Cathe Myiles for a long time now that I just haven't found a lot of good uses for. H Yeah, you know, I think I would this is one that I wouldn't do so all the ones we talked about so far that I said I would do, I would do probably even if I only had like one or two hundred thousand build points because I know I can build the build points back up probably before there's another greatade transfer bonus and I have enough uses that I'd be happy to have used them that way This is the one where If I only had one or two hundred thousand, I'd be pretty hesitant for all of the reasons you said if I had like five hundred or six hundred thousand bill pointoints or something like that, then I probably would because the lower surcharges in British airways are pretty handy and the additional availability flying Cathay Pacific is pretty handy. So I would find that a use for that eventually, I think so That's I said that with that All right, what about Eddie Hod? No, Hard does. Hard pass. You can't even get me with one hundred percent transfer bonus that he had. Only if I absolutely need your points will I consider transferring to you and only if I'm flying like tomorrow and you have the best reward prize. That's it. Yeah, I get my points otherwise. They have the worst change in cancellation penalties in the world. What about Emirates H pass there too. The hard exploration is not any fun for Emirates nor is the fact that the surcharges have just gotten ridiculous on their own flights. They do have some partner awards, Not enough that I would consider speculatively transferring points. I'm not even sure I would take up the one hundred percent transfer bonus if I had an award I wanted to book unless it was really near term because I know plans can change. And so I'd be pretty hesitant. We've been stuck with two hundred thousand emirates points for like two years already. We've got about one more year before they expire and I don't even know what I'm going to do with them yet. So hard pass Yeah, same, same for me for both of those. Japan Airlines in a heartbeat I'd find some other people with bill points to transfer them too. I'd be like, come on, transfer them. Yes. Japan Airlines has some really good uses, some great pricing. just even for just the chance to get some of those Air France KLM flights with no surcharges to Europe would be nice. But then of course, obviously flying business class to Asia, using Japan Airlines miles can be a great value. ye definite So big one big issue with transferring to Japan Airlines without any plans for how to use them is that their miles expire after three years with no way to keep them alive So it's a really good point thing you transfer, you've got to use it. Um t the same time As you said, there's there's some awesome uses for it Um I think I would Do it if I would probably do it, but only because I would commit myself to making sure that I use all of those all of the points. And so it's a bit of ' sort of like giving myself homework, right? Yeah. But yeah, the the value you can get from Japan Airlines Miles for partner awards for uh, you know, unlocking some You know, maybe not the most savor awards with their own program, but like still okay priced awards to fly Japan airlines itself. those kind of things can give you tremendous value. So yeah And' again, we're talking at a hundred percent. you know, like Capital one runs a transfer one runs to Japan Airlines and it becomes a one to one. I'm not speculatively transferring at that rate But at a one to two I'm in on that even but Greg makes excellent points about all the caveats you need to know before you do that and the homework you need to know you're signing yourself up for that homework. R? Youre great I reade about Tap, miles and go. wouldould you do that one? No way. I don't know of any good uses for Tap. miles so u, you know, I I've heard of some not Nauseating uses, but not like exciting uses. so no You know I would be no because of my lack of familiarity with the program, but I will say that recently doing award searches to Europe, I've very frequently seen them have availability on their own flights for one hundred thirty thousand points each way, which is a rate I don't generally want to pay for business class to Europe, but if you look at that, and you're paying half, at's sixty five KH with build points pretty wide open availability. I could see it being appealing for some people, but Overall, I have a general, like I said, lack of familiarity with the program, no handle on when they might devalue or how often or whatever else might change. So I don't think I'd be speculative on that one either Turkish airlines smiles and smiles Speculative transfer So in my uniche, situation I might I would think about it. And here's why So for for the most part, like Turkish miles aren't super valuable anymore. and at There aren there aren't a lot of great reasons to think about doing this. Plus I think these miles also expire after three years without any way to extend them or something el you're right There's a lot of reasons to not do this. Um since Detroit is my home airport and we do have a Turkish airlines flight to Istanbul, Um If I could get a lot of Turkish miles cheaply uh they often Sort of like what I was saying about guitar before. actuallyctually, I think even the same pricing. I think I think like you could get wide open availability in business class to Istanbul for, I think one hundred forty thousand miles one way inststead of the cheaper seventy thousand ish points, that's very rarely available So like I guess I would consider it if I knew, you know We have a trip we want to do to Istanbul coming up and our dates aren't flexible and so I just want to make sure I'm in I'm in business class at you know, then maybe I'd consider it, but that's such a specific case and is not where I am right at this moment. Like if if you ask me right now Hey, transfer bonus just happened, you've got an hour to decide No. Yeah, you know, you also have to consider the fact that We're talking about this through the lens of these bonuses being capped at one hundred thousand. And so you if you transferred one hundred thousand do at one hundred percent transfer bonus, you' have two hundred thousand do. you wouldn't even have enough for one person round trip and never mind too. So right at one hundred forty that you're talking about. Now Turkish does, I think, have the low pricing on their own flights is sixty five K each way, I think So you know if you found that, you'd be close after the one hundred percent transfer bonus to getting two passengers round trip. But I think, yeah, my hesitation would come in that space where it's like, I can't quite get enough for the whole family. I guess I'd get close enough with a one hundred percent transfer bonus that maybe would like you said, I don't think I would probably do it. The one thing I really like about Turkish is I like the length of the flight to Istanbul. If it were up to me if I were the only person planning my trips I would be really happy to connect in Istanbul each time because it's get I get a full night's sleep on the way to Europeally and then get somewhere in the morning because you know, it's only going to be a few hours from Istanbul in the morning. So yeah, so I would like it for that, but I don't think that I will always convince my wife that we should take the nine hour flight the three hour and have another. Yeah. So no And I totally agree with that. I love the fact that it's long enough to sleep plus you know A lot of times you can't even get into your hotel before you know one, two or three in the afternoon. And so that extra few hours to get to where you need to go might not matter, you know, as far as like you'd be writing out, I don't know, trying to figure out where what to do with your bags anyway So yeah Yeah, but probably not speculative like Greg said. All right, last one, Virgin. Last airline anyway. Virgin. What do you say? Sculative transfer? Yeah U so now there's a glowing endorsement. P that in the next Virgin commercial. I mean, Virgin, you know, the nice thing is their points don't expire. they do have some really good uses for booking their own flights and partners. they do have very high surcharges on their own flights though. and It's just kind of a quirky program So I think it's kind of like where you were with Cathe for me, which is If I only had a one hundred thousand built points, would I transfer them all? No. It's a virgin. No. fiveive hundred thousand built points, wouldould transfer one hundred thousand Yeah, I probably would Yeah, that's an interesting perspective. Maybe if I had the five hundred thousand, I would. I definitely wouldn't. I'd be a hard pass if I only had one or two hundred thousand. not only for the reasons that you mentioned, but because Virgin has devalued and devalued and devalued without any advance notice or notification. They just change things up and leave it to the members to determine. And that really turns me off to the program because especially for transferring speculatively, even transferring to book an award I want a book, I'm hesitant these days because if I cancel that, I know I'm going to be stuck with Virgin points may or may not be useful in the future some fantastic deals, like six thousand points one way from New York to Br to Britain can be terrific in the right situations, particularly near term. You know, if you need to fly this week, you need to go to London, New York to London. if you can find availability for six thousand miles and one hundred dollars or whatever it is in taxes and fees, that could be a great deal, but I'm not excited enough. I wouldn't spepectul that would be transferred. I'm with you. Yeah All right, let's speed things up now as we talk about hotels. so Um Yeah Built has one to one transfers to a number of hotel programs plus some differentnt u transfer ratios to some others. So let's first talk about the one to one transfers Hilton, IHG, Marriott, Hyatt and Windom Are there any of those that you would T take advantage of a hundred percent transfer bonus to. Only Hyatt. You know, Hyatt you're never going to see it. so it's just a theoretical thing, but if they had one hundred percent transfer bonus to Hyat, yes, I would transfer. evenven though Hyatt has recently devalued pretty significantly, I'm still confident I'd get good enough value out of Hyatt to make that a really good deal. I wouldn't do any of the others No, one hundred percent agree with that You know, Marriotte's one where maybe if I needed the points and I had a specific use in mind, but ye remember this whole exercise is about propective transfers and I would not do that propectively. All right, what about a core? They The standard transfer ratio is three to two All right, can you do the math for me? What does that does that mean with one hundred percent transfer bonus? It meeans more.ans It means getting I think you'd standardly get somewhere around one point five five cents per point value. So it would be getting around three point a little bit. Pard. Hard to say no to that. Yeah, I would do this one in a heartbeat. and it's one of that's interesting because a core doesn't have much of a footprint in the United States. So I feel like a lot of us tend to ignore a core Because there just aren't that many uses for it. And it's not super exciting because you can't way outsizeed value. But this would make it exciting because you could get outsize value. And I just recently updated our post about getting the elite experience by booking through preferred partner booking programs. And apparently with a Core, you can do that. You can book through their preferred partner program, get yourself free breakfast, maybe like a property credit all the type of stuff you would generally need elite status for and then use yourore points to checkout to pay. So I yeah, I would do aore for sure Me too. What about I prefer? So the standard transfer ratio is one to two. N, I don't know. I'm not that excited about. I prefer. I haven't found many instances where I would want to book I preferred properties and even in those fewer yet where I want to book them through I prefer rather than choice privileges of You know, when they're available via choice privileges. So no, I think I'm a pass on that, but you might be different Yeah, would I would do it if I didn't have a big stash of points already But I do have a big stash of points already because I did the exact same thing with City before it was too late to transfer at a one to four ratio. So basically this would put the built to that same one to four ratio. All right, so I think that that winds up our O discussion, or For the most part, we agree, but definitely not on everything. One place we do agree is that we're going owe a lot of refunds for this episode This episode was produced and edited by Karrie Yoder, music by Annie Yoder. If you've enjoyed what you've heard today and you'd like to get more of this in your email inbox each day or each week, go to frequentmiler dot com slash subscribe to join our email list. foollow us on all the various social media, join our Frequent Myiler Insiders Facebook group, and wherever you're watching or listening, don't forget to like this or give it a thumbs up If you have a question that you'd like to be considered for a future question of the week or a piece of feedback that you'd like to be considered for our giant mail bag, you can send that to. Sendnd it to mailbag at frequentmiler. com Hi, I'm Mike Siegel, comedian, and since twenty eleven, hosts of the Travel Tales podcast. When I'm not traveling the world telling jokes for money, I'm traveling for fun out of curiosity and love of new places. 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