Reform Party Strategy Against New Leadership

T Uyburn a memember for Makerfield. It's literally a coup in the mother of all democracies. And I told him, he's a very nice man. I's sort of a friend of mine Welcome, welcome on and all. Welcome to this extra emergency episode of how to win an election. becauseuse we all know these are the essential emergency services these days, ambulances, police cars, fire engines, and podcasts. I'm Hugo Riffkins and I'm joined by former Labour inssider Sally Morgan. Hello, Sally. Hello And Danny Finlstein will be with us shortly, but isn't just yet. Polly Mackenzie I'mfraid you're going to wait for later in the week to hear her views on thed Miller ban ascendency or otherwise. Do send your questions to how to win at theimes. co d UK and we shall crack on because Downing Street's revolving door has stuck again. We're going to look at the departure of Kistama, the likely arrival of Andy Burnham in number ten. So Sally firstly, how are you? How has it been a big couple of days for you It It's been a big couple of days, lots of phone calls, lotots of phone calls, lots of chat. Yeah, I'll bet. I mean, mean, feel free to tell us as much of that as you want to. Let's start with Kisama's departure because it feels like the waters are closing. his premiership is already kind s of fading from view. How will you remember him as a prime Minister? u well meaning but not very good. I mean, look, I think I think Kir clearly did a really tremendous job sort of sorting out the party. But he never, in my view, really knew what he wanted to do as Pime Minister. and we've talked about it endlessly on the podcast. I mean, there was never a story that offered hope or direction for the country, and that's just caught up with him,'fraid. Danny Fingstone is with us now, Danny How will history remember kissed armor Well, the interesting question will be whether it will because obviously wasn't he in office that long? I mean he's about sort of fortieth forh first, probablyty second. it depends exactly how long the Labour leadership competition goes on. And people don't tend to think a lot about Prime Ministers who have been thereess less long, although maybe Liz Truss will prove an exception just because it was so startling. is it is pretty extraordinary that he's managed to Prime Minister with such a huge majority and be out within a couple of years. But I think they're more going to remember the period. I've been thinking quite a lot about not just this particular prrime mininisterial departure, but how it fits into A series after all, this is now the seventh prime Minister we're about to have in ten years. And there have been other periods of great dislocation in British politics, around the time of the Great reform bill, around the time of nineteen twenty two when the Labour Party rose around the time of Robert Peele leaving office, there have been other big periods where there's been this tremendous change and frequent departures from Downing Street as the political system settled into a new pattern And I think what they probably will remember is that Kir Steimmer was part of this huge realignment in politics, but wasn't up to shaping it and that it required people with greater political talent at a moment of great turbulence. So I think they'll remember him in the context of the moment rather than as an individual. I I also think in a sense it was the whole election victory was about it was kind of tactical rather than strategic. So I mean I always thought it was disastrous winning a very, very large majority with incredibly small majorities all over the place becausecause that gives you colossal vulnerability. all these MPs who are just thinking, well, anything will happen. So I won't be here in a few years time unless there's a shift on whatever. I just felt it was that tactically they'd just gone well, will go for these voters here and these voters here and these voters here, but not T. This is where we're trying to take things. So You know, you repaport your say, I think I can remember marginal seats. It is very important to remember. So winning this thirty three percent vote share, but then gaining a huge majority Dick me you Parliament that the moment you lost a little bit of publicion, he never had a huge amount, start off with You were going to almost immediately be underwater. So you would get the problems that other politicians might get after years of office you'd get almost immediately Danny, you mentioned periods in the past when we've had six or more prime minissin a decade. and the journist Ian Dale helpfully sort put together a list of those I think yesday. It did mostly happen in the nineteenth century, and you say it generally happened at a time of times of political real alignment. Is there any kind rule that can tell us what we're waiting for, is there any sort of sign of like what happens when these periods end Well, I've been sort of giving thought to that this morning. I think that They require a leadership with to create which creates a new political reality, a new political coalition. and that requires some sort of imaginative political idea. Now, one definite possibility is that imaginative political idea will come from Nigel Farage In the nineteen twenties it came from the labour party, but also interestingly enough also from Stanley Baldwin who had an idea how he wanted who wasn't, you wouldn't have thought of very imaginative individual. but he did actually have a sort of creative idea of how he wanted the political alignment to take place. He wanted a new two party system based around Labour and the conservatives and positioned the Cervative partarty accordingly. It's possible, absolutely possible that Andy Bernham will prove to be a person who has that new political idea because he does have an idea of a coalition built around kind of the north and south, which is a different way of people looking at it. and he may he may decide to see through that idea or he may abandon it. I suspect if he abandons it, he'll just become One more on the pile. But if he sees it through, it's possible that that will turn out to be one of the ways in which future is defined. So it basically requires new ideas about how the political settlement will take place. I mean, for example, the creation of a Liberal partarty. Yeah That an example. Sally, do you agree with the idea that historians might understand what just happened rather better than we do? Be I mean I've found over the last couple of days, you know speaking to my kids, speaking to people who don't really follow politics that much, they go, esssenti, why has this happened? And actually in a sentence, it's quite a difficult question to answer Don't you think actually what's happened is that ever since Brexit politics has just been in a complete turmoil. So I think this is sort of the end of a period, hopefully of It's just chaos. I mean, we've just had chaos really. We haven't had We haven't had a sort of consistent group of people trying to move the country forward. If you think that, you know, pre Brexit across different prrime ministers, you had a feeling that there was a direction of trouble and we just haven't had that. I think it is a sort of post Brexit sort of madness, plus the rise of populism, which obviously we're seeing particularly across Europe Well let's talk a bit about what happens next, then, because Kistama he has set quite a long timetable. It hasn't yet been confirmed by the NEC, we should say, nominations until the ninth of July, but they close on the sixteenth. Does this fundamentally mean Sally that there is time for a challenger to gain some momentum and it's not all in the bag for him I think it is in the bag for him. I mean, it does theoretically, of course there can be a challenge. But if you think back to twenty twenty z seven Gordon Brown got over three hundred nominations, I would expect that Andy would be the same. which point it just becomes very silly to think about having a contest, I think. I'm also personally uneasy about people sort of strutting around to party members to sort of win their support rather than concentrating on What needs be done in government? Can you see, Danny any sort of sudden burnham crisis happening in the next four night or so which means there actually is a contest No, was my thought was more that somebody in the Lg partarty would think, well the Conservative partarty' now had four female leaders and we're just about to elect yet another man. Don't we need a female challenger. So I thought either Bridget Phillipson who I suppose there's a tiny chance might agree with this or Angela Rayna, whom it doesn't look as does might decide that they were going to run mainly in order to make a point but also about women and would then get support from MPs because they agrees with that point rather than because they thought a contest was required, which I don't think is actually a very strong It's all it's it's also rather great doesn't look as it's going to happen. doesn't look as if it's going to happen. and the idea of Darren Jones or or Al C in particular, Darren Jones, I think is pretty absurd and I don't and I think He's obviously just putting his name out there in order to increase his leverage in the cabinet u But I, you know, I mean, truthfully It doesn't look to me as though anyone else will take him as seriously as Kiss Amor did We've been trying We've been trying to think of like sort of parallels for what's happening at the moment. one of v you is the best recent parallel is Gordon Brown because when when when Tony Bledood down John McDonald and Michael Mechebur said they would challenge. Meetcher ended up standing aside for McDonald, but he didn't make it. And the Blairite calendars, David Miliband and Alam Milburn, they all fell in behind Brown as well. Is that what we're likely to see here, Sally Yes, I think so. I mean, Joh McDonned has already said Don't be silly, of course we wouldn't we wouldn't gety MPs. so that's a waste of time and we won't get off first base. And I just think look that the Once where streeting folded in who was a, you know, it was a serious contender. I don't think he would ever have won against Andy, but he was a serious contender with serious ideas. Once that happened, I think it's over Is it telling, Danny that I mean, does it tell us something about Andy Bernon that the leftft aren't mounting their usual challenge? that there isn't a John McDonald that there isn't a sort of Jeremy Corbn equivalent, even though they normally take ten turns. No Andy Burnham isn't a cororbonite and if they had enough MPs, they would mount a challenge, but the rules have been changed inder you thankfully actually in order to avoid a small minority of the Parliamentary party not getting ending up with a prime mininister being elected who doesn't have the confidence of his own MPs, that would be disastrous in office bad enough out of office. but Andy Burnham is not a blare up candidate by a long chalk. So I think this could end up being a more consequential change than it is the consensus to believe That it is. So the consensus at that moment is Andy Burnham is somebody who flip flops between positions and he like Kstarmer doesn't really know what he stands for. And so therefore what we've got is a more charismatic Kestarmer who can communicate better. I don't think that's true. The difference between Kistarmer and Andy Burnham, I think is that Andy Burnham does know what he wants I think the problem is how to get there. So he knows, you know, he' he's made some quite sort of eye wateringly specific and quite recent policy proposals, one being his position on the man on whipping, for example U but u, you know,'ll we'll have to see how that what do you think about that, Sally? I mean I think whipping just means doing it differently. I think it means talking talking with people, not talking at them might look, I think the thing that's very interesting about Andy is When I look at the years he's done in Manchester, he has done politics differently. I mean, partly because of the supplementary vote, he's had to build support. but he has actively reached out to create a sort of broad big tent, if you like, of people across the Labour partarty but actually much, much wider than that and strong relationships with business I would envisage that that is what he would try and take forward you know, I hope it is because I think that would be good for the country. Just before big it's going to be the North South divide issue. So Andy Berham, you know favours a written constitution with what he calls a basic law, which is supposed to, you know, which he came up and ideally he came up with with the sort of quiet left winger Jeremy Corb Steve Rotherham, the Liverpool mayor, who was the first person he saw in Westminster yesterday when he got here, and who with whom he's written a recent book and who was Jeremy Corbyn's And their idea is a basic law ensuring equality of living standards between the North and the South a bit like Germany has between East and West Germany that is a very consequential thing to believe and if he sees it through, it will alter politics in a being big ways. Well comoming up, we're going to talk about if and whether there should be a general election with a new Prime Minister and also what this all means for reform. That's when we come back with a bit more how to win an election Welcome back to this special emergency episode of How to win Election with Sally Morgan and Dany Finglstein and no Poll Mackenzie, but she'll be saving it to make it extra special next time I want to talk a bit about basically what's going to happen now because when the Tories change leaders in office, Andy Burnham himself argued for an election. He said we need to start demanding a general election at the end of this Tory leadership election. They were all elected on a manifesto of promise to level up the North and the rule abandoning it. Danny, should everyone just admit that calling for an election is something you do if you're in opposition, but it's not sincerely men. It's just political and you'll never do it when it's you And well, I'd hope say I think There's a case for arguing that at the next general election, we should pressure all the parties to make part of their manifesto the promise that if they change their leader they will call an election. That won't make it essential to call one, but it will make it harder to avoid doing it. I must admit this because in this context that I changed my mind over this. I did think the Labour Party when it got in would be more stable Mbe this issue of keeping on changing Prime mininiss was just a ory problem and therefore, we didn't really need to fundamentally recalibrate, but now I think we do I you know, late Andy Burnhams either going to do nothing that's different from Kir Aarmmer in which case it was pointless changing him or he's going to do something different for which he does not have a mandate. He could gain a mandate. I think they're something quite attractive in the sort of ideas he's advancing, but he'd have to go through the difficult bits of those things, which are redistributing money from the South to the rest of the country. axation changes that go with that he'd have to do that, We'd have to do that in public. and I think he should be required to do that. He shouldn't be able to simply a mandate which he didn't even run in the general election U and Yeah, But Sally, I mean he'd have to be, I mean, he'd have to be completely mad, wouldn't he? because he's got he's got he's got a huge majority at the moment. I keep think of Teresa May who is in this decision of while I'm in power and I've got a majority, but maybe I don't have a mandate for precisely what I need to do. So I'll go to the country and oh look I look I think he's going to start by saying hereere's the manifesto. But you know we all know manifestos, although there's some rigid stuff which is quite tricky, there's also quite a lot of space in manifestos to do different things and to do things differently, which is precisely what I think he'll do. I mean I have to say actually hope he'll do is choose a relatively small number of quite bold changes because I think he has got to say to the country, this has been worth it And with me, you do see something different. And I also think he's going to have to say very clearly, I am going to be straight with you about the difficult choices and be prepared to go out and argue them, which I think he's capable of doing. Is there an argument he can make, Danny that you know what there was a manifesto and I didn't and I didn't sam it. But let's be honest, it was pretty vague and most of what Kistama wanted to do wasn't really in the manifesto either. So I'm just interpreting the vageness in a different way Yeah, I think you could argue that. My his best argument is people want us to get on with it. they don't want another contest. That's the best argument. which is probably one Yeah because it resonates with the public. and I you know, so I think you would say of course the others want a general election because they, you know, they just want constant politics, but I want to get on with with it. People know what labour is. I'm real, you know labour, we've let you down so far, but now we recognise what you really want. And there's enough that he' quite that is sort of within the expectation of a labour government u that he probably do that you know, without too much tap. So, you know, the interesting thing is I do think constitutionally we ought to be pushing for that. Of course, if I Randy Burnham, I wouldn't call an election. So there you go. You know, he answered your question. But I think he should not what I think is that next time if there is a next time like this, people shouldn't be in that position. They should you know, let's for example take Nigel Farraage, right? I've always pointed out to people that If reform became the largest party or even won a majority under Nigel Farage, Giveniven how vesciferous that party is and also how prone Nigel Farage is deciding that he'd rather make money than politics oscillates between those two things. Who knows how long that would last and who we would end up with you know, somebody chosen by the reform partarty, what without an election Yeah, that would be exciting. Let's talk about reform specifically. because I mean how are they going to take on an Andy Burnham government. In Makerfield, they try to paint him as a career politician versus their sort local candidate. That obviously didn't work so well, but they're also now targeting his shifting positions. Richard Tice on Times Radioos called him Captain flip flop. he said, Forget of the King of the North, he's the king of the Un quite sure that works because your turns never mind. Is that their best bet? Is there another strategy that's available to them? Sally, addvise reform on how to defeat your party gosh. I mean, firstly that won't work, I don't think because I think Andy will set out pretty clearly what he stands for and I think above everything he'll have a growth agenda. So I think that'll be where they are. I think look, what they'll do, I assume is say He's forgotten you. He's forgotten you. He's forgotten all of you, you know, he said he was he was going to listen to you, but he's forgotten you. And so I think one of the interesting issues for Andy will be, to what extent he still semi bases himself in Manchester. You know, willill he go to cheheckers or will he go some of the time back to Manchester? And I think You know I think there are sometimes some symbolic things that just say I'm doing things differently., you' got to be careful because sometimes they're just really irritating and dragging people around the country on trains that don't arrive on time and all that. But There is no doubt at all that his commitment to the North and his sort of identity is real is real. So you know I could see he'll have to think of ways to counter what I guess will be their attack Danny what would you I think he needs to w they needs to wait just a little bit. and with what he then offers them, right? So it's Captain Flip fllop is possible. We might end up up with it. So is I forgot the North. I think he I he's I'mlikely to do the latter of those things. and Interestingly, reformers then got this problem if he doesn't forget the North and he does pl on, that's a good issue for all the parties running in the south A dilemic Liberal Democrats, by the way, as to whether they attack that or not. The tour it's a bit easier U So I think that's going to be, you know, there'll be a lot of hard politics in that and I think it will be a bit more difficult for reform, but they should they they should wait because An opportunity to criticise him for the things that he does as he does them and go with the grain will present itself. And don I mean I don't worry for Nigel Farage, he's particularly good at finding these particular criticisms and observations and he'll find one readily enough. but I think Don't, you shouldn't start with one that then turns out to be really not the right criticism. It was quite interesting, wasn't it during the by election that actually one of the things that Andy did was not spend his time attacking reform you know and that was quite unusual because if you think about lots by elections, your instinct would have been take those on fight them and fight them. and he didn't he didn't. He sort of went over the heads. and I thought that was quite interesting. It's the danger Danny for reform that while they've sort slightly lost their momentum as the time for a change party, they're also faced with the prospect of Andy Burnham So running a time for a change government. Yes. So that's absolutely right, But don't forget Andnty Burnam's got to move then at some point from time for a change to Brutitons on the right track. donon't turn back. That's how's he's got to try and fight the next election on that. And I'm he's you know, and then reform's got to be able you know, that will make him more vulnerable and reform can attack the track. I mean, look, reform will attack him on immigration, of course and it's difficult for any difficult to resist on that because immigration is so hard to deal with. L absolutely look. Thank you very much indeed for sliding down the fire poole of Ns, Sany Morgan Dany Finkelstein, joining us for this emergency podcast episode on how to win an election. There will of course be more how to win election later in the week with added Polly Mackenzie as well. Thank you Sally. than you Dany. I've been Huga Rifkind, We'll see you next time