Looking Ahead to the General Election

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What really happens I will stand, and I've said repeatedly, I'm not going to walk away from that Welcome, welcome, welcome one and all. Welcome to How to win an Election. and welcome especially to this special episode explaining what just happened at the Makerfield by election, what happens next in Westminster and Downing Street and what it means for the general election. Have we just seen the tectonic plates of British politics shift again I am the deeply reluctant Andy Burnham menswar disciple Hugo Rifkin, and I'm joined by your by election past masters, formerer Labour Insider Sally Morgan. Good morning Morning P polic, Queen Polly Mackenzie. Hello Hello And Torory Pier and Times cololumnist Danny Finglstein. Hello Hello one and all. And right now they are all more excited than Andy Berham when the Stone Roses comes on in the jukebox in the wororking men's Club Danny, it's a decisive win for Andy Burnham on a high turnout. Is this a big, big win? Yeah, it's very big. Well look, it's big for two connected reasons. The first is It is large in a seat where reform did so well in the local elections. And so even people who thought, as I did, that he would win very clearly and very cleanly that it would be more than restore and reform put together are struck by the size of it. The scale of it was big and reform hardly advanced at all. There was clearly a lot of tactical voting also for him and everything that was said about his personal vote was large. That's connected to the second point Clearly he was using this as what he called a proof of concept I think there's an awful lot to discuss about whether that it really counts as that, but it certainly shows that he has a personal appeal in part of world and he's obviously also had the ability to gain that personal appeal, which suggests a broader political ability. and that means that he provides the Labour Party with an alternative path, which it looks to me like they're going to take So Sally, the scale of this win then, beating reform by more than nine thousand votes, beating indeed reform and restore put together considerably. Does that mean that as far as the Parliamentary Labour Party is concerned, Kist Stahmer should be packing his bags? Y I mean, that's my view. I mean, that's my view and that's where I think piece will be because I don't think you can I don't think it's credible to say what this was about was saying, well we sort of want change we want change led by Kist Stoma. I mean, how can that possibly be be a serious position. So I think look, I think they will feel optimistic for the first time in quite a long time. I think they will feel they've got somebody who potentially can reach the parts that they have lost and who will communicate well and bring people forward. I mean, there's a heck of a lot of you know assuming he gets there, he's got an awful lot of policy work to do. He's got to really focus on the decisions that have got to be taken. However I do not say it's table for K Starmer to carry on. So I mean, Starmer has said even this morning he's said, you know that if there is a contest, I will stand. I'm not going to walk away from that. So he's not going to voluntarily pack his bags. Pa it is this sort of comical Ali type of stuff You don't get to be Prime Minister without having a certain sense of rugged determination and quite a thick skin And he, from his own articulation, is motivated to stay out of a sense of duty and honor and obligation Tsa May in a way, that sense of like I promise to do this so I must and The question is will he listen to people? at what point does the accumulation of voices he trusts, going to see him, asking for one to ones, messaging him and calling him, tip him over the edge Maybe it won't. You know, I think that that is potentially harmful to the Labour Party, though if there ends up being a contest a three way four way contest is's kind of, you know Not that much worse than a two way contest in which he's not involved. Does he make, you know? So the interesting thing about him is this relentless anti political But one of the things that was sort of personality. think about who? A starmer. Right. now and how that responds. So one of my rules is that people often don't know what they're going to do. They can't predict their own action because they don't know the circumstances they're going to face. So Tsa May, to my certain knowledge, because I spoke to her about it Only about a week or two weeks before calling a general election, she genuinely didn't think told me herself in her flat in Down she wasn't going to call one. And then she obviously changed her mind the logic of the political position was so strong. So there' very there a strong logic of the political position, which is some cabinet ministers will go threatening to resign There would then be a large enough group of junior ministers that it would then mean that all the parliamentary private secrearies will start to be reported in the press as being junior ministers. Everyone will do ticket tape, live blogs about the people who are resigning. The government look like it's falling apart. And in normal circumstances, even if Kir Starmer today thinks he's not going to run That will be the logic of the position and you'll have to accept it. So the interesting question is does his relentless anti politics position or failure or refusal to read the political game mean that he doesn't accept the political logic at the point where everyone else would. becausecause a Prime minister is somebody who is able to maintain a majority in the House of Commons by being able to form a government And he may think even if you know a few obvious people resigned, he'd be able to do that. If you lost Chibana M the homeome Secretary, that would clearly be a much bigger blow for example, the lsing Ed Milliband. But he might not want just one last thing. might he might want to keep Andy Berham might want to keep Shibabana who is who is definitely on his team in the cabinet because that way she can be head of the national Executive Committee retain that job, which means she decides the rules of the contest. He'll want to go soon Star will want to go along. So he won't want Bar to resign if she doesn't resign, will the others be enough to persuade Kislamata? There is still a little bit to play out, but I think even though he doesn't accept logic of political position, he'll probably be forced to. Sally, extremely short term. what does happen now? What will people I'tabinet like West Street I I don't think people know what I hope is that people go and have quiet conversations with them. I hope that it doesn't play out as Dunny described because I think good it's just not good for the country. I hope that people go and have the sort of conversation where they say to Kir, remember, you have said you will put the country before the party. I would argue he's in danger of putting himself before the party and the country if he sticks. So I think that's the conversations that need to be had and I would hope that next week. We get an outcome whereet there's a sensible transition, that's what I would hope. I mean, so Burnham, he arrives in he'll arrive in the commons oneonday afternoon. Do any of you think it's going to be all over by then I think it's unlikely. I think it's unlikely, but I do think it could be quite quick. I think next week is what if he accepts the logic of the situation. you've got to leave a small percentage of probability for junior ministers and cabinet ministers not leaving not wanting to leave their position and therefore K Aarma feels he can carry on a government decides to fight not I mean, I think one of the problences. and I think if I was in the cabinet or a minister seeing him, I would say you know you really say that you care about the country and the government. The government's not functioning. I mean, the government has pretty well ceased to function at the moment. Nothing's happening. I mean, there's a few announcements being made, but the truth is you talk to the civil service It's kind of everybody's waiting to see they don't who the minis is going to be So you can't carry on like that. it's not fair. Do you think he pre So one of the questions about Kistam was whether he thinks the government not making any decisions and not doing anything is actually that's the government functioning. I mean it's hard. the reason I say that, I know it sounds I've got some respect for that. I know it sounds ridiculous, but it's hard to translate his policy in opposition or his beginning in office. in any other way, I don't know what you think Polly, but whether you think that He sort of has a fundamentally different conception of how to govern and how politics works than almost everyone else does. And this is sustaining him in what looks to everyone else like an unrealistic position But in his head it doesn't look unrealistic I think he is frustrated with the machinery of government. You know, he he's said so. he got rid of Chris Wermold, the Cabinet seecretary has brought in a more ambitious and reforming cabinet secretary and given her, Antonio Romeo a mandate to do lots of change because he's convinced that the Civil serervice is the thing that's stopping government from happening I think he lackaxses the ability to reflect on his own role in the ineffectiveness of the government. but I don't think he thinks the government is very successful. though I'm sure if he were here he would point to a number of good things they are doing. thoseose are absolutely true., there's plenty plenty of good individual initiatives. There just isn't a gun of governing momentum. So there's a school of thought that says that Andy Burnerham really has the same problems as Kiss Amor, but just in better clothes. I mean in that it's hard to see what he stands for, it's hard to see what his big answer is other than the fact that it's now going to be him rather than being somebody else. I wonder if you think Polly because his win was so big in Makerfield Do that does that sweep aside concerns about his suitability? Sweep aside any concerns about what he actually stands for, whether he'll actually be any good at it just because it it's just inevitable , the sort of mood of the Parlientary Labour Party is more of kind of Sally's vibe than mine. doesn't sweep away the need to have a clear governing philosophy and a set of policies and programs that then represent that philosophy And then crucially, which Starman never got to capable strong team around him who are united in their desire to deliver that and push through the obstacles to make it happen That remains absent Maybe that was a tactical decision to just not really talk about doing many things differently whilst he was running in Makerfield Or maybe it's just a work in progress and they want a bit more time, a couple more weeks to think deeply about policy. My concern is that where he has kind of hinted at things like the waspie women, which we talked about last week, you know o yeah, we'll be able to find money for that or that it's really unfair that pensioners are going to be brought into income tax for the first time. That sounds a bit unfair is that In the absence of his clear manifesto and governing philosophy, he's just sort of trying to sort of stitch things together that sound nice.. So I think Annie Berham just won a time for a change election. Those are easier to win than the one he's going to try and win next which is Britain's on the right track, donon't turn back He's got to define a track and he's also got to be on it. That's the second one of those two is the more difficult, right? So I think he's shown the emotional and political ability to define a track. He's pretty good at talking. And I also think actually he sort of knows what he thinks that track is, which is Britain is massively centralized on the the southeast S on London L And this is a true statement. It's got one productive place in it and lots and lots of the most unproductive places in Europe and declining places. And what he wants to do is redistribute power and probably that also means resources to these other places. And this message, which is we're going to take Westminster to the places that it is ignored I think it is an undxploited theme. Boris Johnson could see it was a theme by the way and but he couldn't get it going. I think If Andy Bernon became the first Northern Prime Minister. Of course you can say Tone Tony Blair and Margarein Thger had that too, but he since Harold Wilson, he'd really have that. Then the question will be how does he actually turn those into concrete . policies. I have my question about Andy Burnham is I think he'll be very good at any questions to which the answer Downing Street needs to be yes. iston wasn't even good at those, but he'll be very good at those. The thing he'll struggle with is anywhere like the ones that you describbe where Andy Burnham has to say no to anyone. Okay, But so to bring this back man, if there is this sort of you know clear vision of Burnhamism waiting to come, Is there an argument that a leadership contest might be helpful all the party? Ponally I don't think it would. I think it's much harder to do it in When you're in government is in opposition in opposition, we should be doing that. A, he's going to win anyway And B, I think I mean, two reasons, A, I think it's an incredible distraction The notion that you wouldn't have, I mean, I think there needs to be a new government in place before people go on the holidays, frankly, because I I think you need August to have ministers in place, to sort yourselves out and to look at some of the really hard policy choices that Paolly was talking about. you can get through tillil then. Also I don't want have to come back and be a real It'd be a real hassle. Yeah. But I mean you know Parliament' back the first of September. you can't then stagger on toil conference and have people in their ministerial posts who then aren't in the ministerial posts a week or two later. I mean I just don't see how it makes sense. So I think I actually think it's got to happen quite quickly. So what do you do now then, Sally if if you are WeES streeting, if you are, you know even even Al Cs. You know, what would you do? I think it's difficult. I think they I mean, I think WES has been quite savvy in recent weeks in terms of putting his broad position out there clearly. dont know I don't know whether Andy will pull him in. If I was Andy, I would. If I was Andy, I would try and create a pretty broad church actually to demonstrate that I was going to operate in that way Al countounts, I think is interesting because I think when he resigned, we all thought well he's resigned in the same way as John Hilly. in fact when you look into it and really read it, they were coming from different positions. So I think look, there's a serious argument there about I mean whereere' said? Where's a said and Andy have said they've both said defense security is terribly important. The devil is in the detail. it can't just be more money. It needs to be really scrutinizing what we need for the next five years, the next ten years. So I think that's the big you know, that's the tough stuff. So Andy Berham wants to be leader of the Lab Party, but he which is one constituency, but he's also obtained a constituency and it's a very particular place So yes, but it's a place that is that was very largely leave that was that's very socially conservative, that's fiercely anti establishment that is very fed up with politics. it's It's instincts may be in tension with the instincts of the Labour Party. In some ways you're quite right that it's helpful because it'll pull in closer to the country, but it will be a tension with the party and it'll be interesting to see how he manages that tension. Sally in Andy Berham's book headad North, he recounts a meeting with you in Downing Street. What happened there Yes, it came to me before the twenty one election. I think it was at least a year before. I was going through this process, I was political secary. I was going through this process of talking to special advisors, you know David Milliban, James Pannell Pamet Fad and people who were thinking they might want to be MPs. And James Pennell, who was a very, very good friend of Andy said, you've got to go and talk to Sally Morgan,'s the political seecretary. So Andy came to see me and yes, describes it as a sort of I was in one of my head teacher moods, which is a bit mean but came to see me and I said, Well, yeah I think you should be an MP. Or he went out thinking that he definitely should be an MP. We decided we sort of focused on Lee, that's where he was from. We thought it was a great seat to go for. But I remember saying to him, this is not going to be a shoe in.' not we're not going to just pop you in here. You're going to have to fight and win it. I think which he did. And I think that was Really good for him, actually. I mean he went out very determined to win, but then he basically did spend the next year really, really on the doorstep. Did you think he was a talent? Did you think I mean I mean one hates to be sort of too kind of sort of historically grandiose about it, but what how does it feel looking back on that and thinking this was furerime min' the prrimeis? I probably didn't think he was a future prrime Minister in fairness You know But then it was a very long time ago. I thought he was incredibly personable and good at politics. and I was interested in the range of people who supported him. So you know he was a special advisor for Chris Smith for Tessa Jell, He was PPS for David Blanket. When you put all those people together, it's quite an interesting mix. One of the things about being personable and being good at politics It's a really interesting feature of this bardation. in this incredibly anti politics place at a time when the mood against politicians is so strong as it's dangerous. and They've elected this unbelievably professional lifetime politician against the plumber who by the way was quite personable himself. If watched a lot, I watched a lot of video of Rob Kenyon, but he had All the things that amateurs do, first of all, he was completely didn't know what he was talking about a lot of the time in the issues. He didn't know how to approach an issue where he didn't know, which is something you learn do in politics and he couldn't do that. He also didn't know when to say no. so he said yes to being on question time with Andy Burnham, which I would say no to. I wouldn't want to go on question timee with Andy Burnham in those circumstances. And so I thought it was weird when he didn't have the ability to do those things. So he let himself be led by his advisors to do something he wasn't capable of doing. And then there was also his social media history. The reason why this is important is that at the next general election. reform will have this problem not as acutely because the candidate doesn't become so acute, but it'll have it everywhere, which is it does not have. it has a lot of people who can present themselves as authentic. That's an advantage. but we've now seen what the disadvantage is, which is they simply can't compete because it is being political is a skill Kis Armour doesn't have it either, right? He's a lawyer rather than a plumber, but he doesn't have it. And you need it. That's really interesting. Kiss Amour being more like Rob Kenyan than Andy Burnham, which is I think actually quite interesting insight. Polly, look, the most important appointment any Pime minister can make is Chancellor If you're Andy Burnham are you going to pick Ed Middibband I don't know. I mean, Edmilliband, as we have discussed, is doing, I think, one of the best jobs in the cabinet. Not because, you know, I think every last detail of his energy policy is precisely right, but because he's got an agenda clarity that he developed in opposition And he is pushing it forward. he's building new organizations, greatreat British energy. he's redesigning the entirety of the energy market in line with his vision The challenge is that if moves if he were to move to the treasury You know, Ed Miliban is somebody who thinks deeply about his policies and his values. There's supposed to be a tension. between thes the decarbonization and the hang on, let's not spend all of the money on stuff. and we need to think about the cost of energy and the impact of that on the wider economy and flipping him, I think might really accelerate momentum against climate change, which would be great if you believe in that, but I'm not sure that that's where where Bernin would want move the government. Millib Bamy's a very powerful figure in the party. He's not really that well liked in the country. And there's been a lot of talk in recent weeks about how he could be the kingmaker for Andy Burnham. I'm interested in because Burnham's victory was so big in Makeerfiee. Does he still need E Minibam? I don't think he's the kingmaker in this situation actually Partly because the nature of the seat as Danny said, I mean, you know,s Andy will not be able to forget who he' where he's representing. And to be fair, it's where he comes from I mean, I can remember way back it was always really important when Tony Blair, when he was Prime Minister went back to the constituency because if it had been in another part of the country, there probably would have been Tories but they were kind of labour voting daily mail supporters and that was that was kind of it was very grounding. They told him what was what. And I do think Andy will have some of that in Makerfield because it's the people he knows. you know So I think that's really important. Ed's not in that camp. It is incredibly difficult to translate though, that the anti politic sentiment, which you can do in opposition or you can do if you're the mayor into a governing philosophy, you know That is something that the Lib Dems actually I mean, because they were just the minority partarty, it was even harder, but nevertheless, the Lib Dems in twenty ten presented themselves as a kind of anti politics force. Nick Cleg's wholechbel on those debates was the two old parties have let you down, let's do something different. and then coming into government. even our most ambitious and radical policies We werere sort drowned out by the complexity and the grinding reality. You know we reduced people's income tax bills by raising the tax threshold, a massive change, but actually it was sort of lost in translation because people also had VAT things going up and wages ended up flat for a really long time. And so there was no sense that any of that energy had been translated, Josh Simons, who I think is kind of intellectual, incredibly interesting is the guy who stood down to make space for Andy Burnham, has talked very compellingly about sort of radicalism, about being on the side of the people kind of almost against the government. which I have to say it's not fair. Yeah. I've seen that pulled off. Again, mostly by liiberal Democrats in council levels that you're sort of against the council. You're the populist movement trying to kind of poke the bureaucrats I think that' I've never seen that done at national level. Could he do that with an anti London effectively? I mean he was as crude. But I do think there's some real politics in the Manchester idea. I'm going to go down there and all these places have been forgotten by you in London. That has not been tried by someone who actually lives there, right? So it's been tried by Boris Johnson, but it didn't obviously didn't work when he was mayor of London So I think it could be that is definitely something that you could try. But I don't think he I think he will try and make Sabana My mood Chancell She'll be a little bit reluctant because she wants to see through her immigration reforms. But in the end, if you're offered Chancellor, first of all, you take it or leave it, but also you take it. The other thing about it is that the Ed Milliban thing is I mean He's not only burnam by name, but I think hell his conistitency that is more burnham than climate change, right? So you I think the policy of let's take our coffee grounds to reception to save the environment is not a very makeak afield. And I think that hell he will he's appealing to a different audience And so I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't try and move Ed Milliband Eden from energy because I think it would be quite difficult. to clarify that is not something we're expected to do in this building, I believe. We'll be back in a moment. We're going to talk about what this result means for reform for the Tories for Rore and the genereneral election Better Hel add Allall time I just need to What if you had a room where no one interrupts No notifications, no expectations J space to talk. Better Hel, theraapy happens in a space that's yours. Visit betteretterhLp. com slash random podcast for ten percent off your first month of online therapy Summer is here, which means we all want to look and feel our best. A GLP one may be right for you. Visit orderlymeds d. com to learn more about which GLP one you could be eligible for. Getting started is fast, easy and happens virtually through telemedicine from licensed professionals. Check it out for yourself. G to orderlymeds d. com slash podcast Orderly meds dot com slash podcast. Taking care of yourself feels great. CompAut of medications are not FDA approved eligibility required and determined by licensed provider. individual results may vary you whatbsite for details Every morning throughout the World Cup, the game, football podcast from the Times and Sunday Times will bring you your essential daily briefing. We'll hear from our reporters inside the England and Scotland camps bringing you the big news first. We've got reporters covering the best of the rest and following all the biggest stories. From FIFA banning water to Donald Trump coming on as a sub against Paraguay Okay, maybe not the last bit, but who knows? So join the game for the biggest show on earth. Find the game wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to this special episode of How T to an Election. whenever there's a by election, we'll be here. Let's talk about reform guys. Danny, in your Times column this week, you wrote a loss in Makerfield would be a very bad result indeed. How bad was this for Nigel Fraud? It was very bad. I mean it was as bad as I'd predicted, but it was a bit worse than that because they did so badly compared to Burnham let's leave aside what this means going forward because you can make a plausible case, Beram won't be very good, then they'll be back where they were before. But beforefore we get to that They were beaten for the second time in a row by a different change candidate because they have got high negatives as well as high positives, and if everybody else gangs up against them, they are vulnerable to somebody with a strong change message. and as a result, they lost in twice to other people with strong change messages, the Greens and then Andy Burnham. They also couldn't find a good candidate or they did find a candidate. They chose deliberately a candidate that turned out to be an incorrect strategy. I think that know whatever you think of Matt Gubin in other ways, I think he probably wasn't a good candidate for Gordon and Denson, even if you were you know inclined to think he was good in other ways or if you weren't. I think that's they have therefore struggled to turn their poll. You know, if you think about it, this was one of their most promising seats in the whole country in order to win a parliamentary party of fifty They would have had to win Makerfield. to get a parliamentary party that's big enough and they lost Makerville by a long, long way, not by a little bit. Now of course it's unique, but every election as has you know the capacity to be you know to be unique and they've shown they're not very resilient to that. Coupled with that, of course, the Conservatives winning Aberdeen South makes the other task theirs which is consigning the Conservative party to history, using the results to say, well, we did it very badly. Rore was a distraction, but the Conservative partarty lost its deposit. And of course, Nigel Forest has tried to do that. it just doesn't work that well on a day when the Conservative party is actually warm. Sally, they didn't just lose in Makerfield. they also lost about a fifth of their vote to restore and wouldn't have wondered even if they hadn't.es. I mean real that's a strategicightmare. That's a real d. I think it's a real dilemm. I mean who knows to what. I mean the fact that Nigel Farard is by far their most effective campaigner, but they've had to hide him away because of his crypto stuff clearly didn't help. I mean, I know he turned up to do some knocking up, but that was all pretty late. but he really wasn't around and sending Richard Tyice there as your sort of frontmand, I don't think is very compelling. So for me, it emphasized that they are They are really a one band band still and if that If that one man is not operational, they've got a real problem But also I think they lost, I think in the end, they lost the political argument. I mean, these are people who were, you know the voters were effectively saying, we are really fed up We don't think it's fair. We want a better deal, but they looked around and they thought, but we don't actually think you're the serarest people to deliver it I mean probablyllly though, as Danny said, the next general election won't be like Makerfield. Pe won't be in the same position. Burnham won't be the change candidate. He'll be embedded. Is it wrong to write off reforms and because they've shown they can't perform over several by elections? I think it's certainly wrong to write them off. you know, they're still doing incredibly well in the polls. We're still in this incredibly complicated multip party system in which You know, results are just not smooth. It's lumpy. you know you can get five percent of the vote and fifty seats or thirty percent of the vote and fifty seats. Heaven only knows what will happen in the next election. I think what fascinates me though is actually the choice of the candidate because it feels to me like Gton and Denton, they were like, o, no, we chose a sort of professional politician, and we shouldn't have chosen a plumber. Let's choose a plumber next time. And there's a sort of back foootishness about it. And Nigel Farage, who I do not agree with on almost anything, nonetheless, what impresses me about him is that throughroughout his career, really, he's been on the front foot. He's managed to make the weather. he's not reactive and responsive, really. He's just he uses his instincts and his connection with people to actually pick the right topic and to push everyone else after him. And instead, there's This feels like exactly the opposite. So he's responding to restore, who he feels like suddenly on his shoulder. He's responding to the greens. Oh they've got a plumber. we can do plumbers like it And they're missing something actually. and I think that is why they need if they want to kind of consummate their their poll lead and their poll strength.ing a bit in the election very Well there's something about failure to finish, isn't there really? But like it's Got to start acting like a properly professional party and they have they've hired lots of people But it's still really messy, really imm mature. as an example agreeing to the candidate would go onQuestion Tim as an example of that. But I think Pollly does make very important point which we started with which is let's not forget it was actually historically and make an extraordinary result for an outside political party to score thirty thirty four percent. So what it is what it Makes one question is what however they got limits. and there is a danger to them that they roll backwards because half of their vote is momentum vote. The other half isn' it' quite demographic, but they need both halves in order to succeed even somewhere like Makerfield which is where their demographic base is. So that's the reason why I would say was it was a bad result for them. but it's not you know there's lots that you can sit down if your reform strategist and go, okay, well, that was what it was, but we can go forward from there. You know, I think it's Very important not to overstress how difficult it was. But did they fundamentally make an error? Responding to the threat of restore. We did see Nigel Farage in the last couple of weeks tilting rightrightwards with his whole white people are inperil, sucks to be us, etcera strategy. Was that just a mistake, Danny I think it I not I think it's a mistake morally, but the morals Yes, but I want to not say that. Y yes, I think it's a real dilemma. I think. So Nigel Farage, I we've discussed this all before, but Nigel Farage has built the political parties he has by saying to people on the far right of the kind of ethnoationalist let's kick out all the you know everybody who's not white from the and Christian from the country. He's said that's not my politics. I don't accept that. And and There's all He's always been able to rely on those people to go, well, we haven't got anyone else, so we'll vote for you. And now they're not doing that. That is worth definitely sevencent or eight percent and he's got the dilemma of whether to turn back and try and keep those people on board or try to broaden his message. And I've said that a long time. I've said that there's a lot of similarities between what Nigel Farage is trying to do to reform to what David Cameron tried to do to the Conservative party. And you know that phrase David Cameron had, which is reformers UKip was full of fruit cakes and loonies I've always said up there's nobody who believes that morese strrop passionately than Nigel Varage. He wants the broadest reform, but in pursuit of it, you lose some of the closet racist vote and Rupert Lowe's now pick that up. Yeahuitkakes, Loonies and closet racist. I think must mustn't forget the closet racist because otherwise they'll be sad. Let's do a quick drive by on the Conservatives because they had a triumphant night. They won the Parliamentary seat of Aberdeen South, which I believe It is the first by election that the Conservatives won in Scotland in sixty years It shows Danny, there's life in the Tory partarty yet. How important is this? Yeah, so think I think we should look at both parts of it. They did exceptionally well in one part and exceptionally badly in another,. And that is the story of the Conservative Party at the moment, which is it definitely has some real strengths in the country, which will be very difficult to wipe out. and the idea of the Conservative Party simply disappear, this result is a contradiction to that idea. There's an accompanying part of it. There is a rising feeling among a lot of people following politics that that the leader of the Conservative partarty is a political asset to the party. That was also the case in focus groups by the way in Aberdeen, strong political asset. And you talk to lots of people people think that and that In the end, that does feed through and becomes a political fact that is because leadership is one of the few things that makes a real difference. So those are the good things. On the other hand, there are areas where the conservative partodyy can't compete at all and ends up scoring two percent The lucky thing for the Conservative party is that traditionally it didn't win those seats anyway So the question really is whether it can advance in places where it You know which it lost in twenty twenty four, but it's still strong. And Aberdeen South is one type of seat, but it's quite Scottish. So the question is whether or not it could do that in places for instance, where the liberal Democrats held the seat. But it was also a seat to whichort oil was so important. Polly The Conservatives, as we said, they did well in Abereen and South but they did disappear in Makefield Kemy Bayenoock, as Danny said, there is this sort of growing view that Kemy Baennoock is an asset and it's also really notable that she's the first leader the Cervativors have had in quite a long time that isn't personally toxic in Scotland, so far as we could see Wy That's the kind of Westminster chat. Is any of that real? Do you think she's really is an asset? or is that just what sort people who kind of work in buildings like this think I guess the challenge is around how low expectations are for the Conservative Party if you think that Kemy is doing well because against the historic trend of the Conservative Party throughout, you know the entirety the last, I don't know what it is, two hundred, three hundred years. She's doing incredibly badly historically badly It's also true that she's in very difficult circumstances. It's also true that she has got better and stabilized. and getting rid of Robert Jenrick has has I think, kind of got rid of a sort of factionalism within the Conservative partarty of somebody actively stirring up trouble and it's it seems to me possible that by holding on and holding steady that the Essentially, her enemies might make life easier for her because the reform Party might collapse in on itself You know, to be still at sort of, you know, seventeen, nineteen, twenty percent, that That's still really bad. Yeah sure. Look, we are all about how to win elections on this podcast, so let's look at what this means for the next general election. Sally, Kir Starmer has tried to pursue a strategy of pitching himself against Nigel Farade in a battle for the soul of the nation.. Well, is that what Andy Burnham will do? O is the whole point of Andy Burnam that's quite what I would have thought that isn't where Andy would be. I mean, it's clearly where he's had to be to an extent in Makerfield. but my take on how Andy has changed over the last sort of decade, I suppose, certainly in his time in Manchester is he's pitched differently. I mean I thought it was very interesting. if you look at what he did say in Makerfield, he didn't really take much notice of it. he didn't say much about reform. He about he talked to the people, he talked to the voters, and I think what he will do is try and people together and say this is how we are moving the country forward. So I don't think he'll play tip for tat again against Farage. shouldould be interesting to see how primises questions, assuming this all happens, how prrimeis' questions pan out because I mean, my take on what Polly just said is I think you're right. I think she's becoming quite an effective leader of the opposition. I'm not sure that would translate to being a potential prime Minister. and I think that's the big jump. I'm not sure she's there.. Can Danny, canan Andy Burnham's current popularity I mean this is one of those windows where you know he's as popular as politicians get, which these days of course, isn't very canannot survive contact with actually running the country? That can. But he's got to make this shift, as I said earlier, between time for change and Britain's on the right track. don't turn back. We'll have to see what he int, you know, we just don't know. Either what he plans to do to put a be on that track, or how strong is his ability to do that? You know It's not a small thing that he is very emotionally intelligent, that he is very good at communicating with people, that he manages to convey to people that he cares about them, that he has a story about why that is the case that he has a place from which he comes and that he represents that place and he's tied that place to his political idea. These are all quite strong things and I think day give him a they do give him a real chance for to advance. And he doesn't don't forget he doesn't have to advance that far. Labour did win a landslide, an absolute landslide on thirty three percent. of the vote. So he doesn't have to return the labour policy to forty percent and forty five percent share. But it's too early to just tell whether he'll be able to do that. And with Kemy Badnch clelearly What she had to do was the first thing, which was establish that she was a leader that had the confidence of her party and that the electorate even noticed her and thought highly fair. it is a real thing. so it does come up in fooccus groups. Voters actually say it, and you can see it in her approval ratings. But what's very striking is that doesn't shift to the Conservative partarty at all. because it may be that people are simply done with the Conservative partarty. But another possibility is being done with the consonservative party is more just thinking they're finished rather than feeling they're finished. In other words, not saying I could never vote for those people again. they're terrible and that brand is useless and I won't join it. but merely thinking no one else is going to. so therefore I won't anymore. latter feeling There were people who were susceptible to that for sure in the reform vote. About half of their vote belongs to that category of being persuadeable and thinking someone else could be the change and momentum matters a lot and we just don't know now where that where that momentum will take us but Kemy Ben has put herself in the position. she can take advantage of it if it if the situation happens to be the right one. Polly, Kir Starmer always had this sort of slight veiled bromance with their debi to the extent that Danny always thought they should sort of combine together, like Amobas jining, perhaps and join the parties too. Well would that persist under a Burnham leadership This whole idea that the liveddems in labor are basically the same thing now. I don't think they are the same thing actually. You know The Liberal Democrats are just sort of existentially more liberal than many of the defaults and cultural expectations within the Labour Party, but clearly they have an affinity on many particular issues I think it will come down to raw politics, you know