Future Leadership and Economic Policy

arry on You're anyone's for w f. I don't want to the primeinter.' contining going to reform W a council called boring. Anti chararisma. Charisma. A really big tent. Lly policy Welcome, welcome, welcome one and all. Wlcome to How how to win an Election. I' Hugo Rifkin. and I'm joined as ever by former Labour inssider Sally Morgan. Hello, Sally. Hello. He is still carrying on, isn't he At the moment. At the moment. for now. for now at least until the end of the show Policy quQeen Polly Mackenzie. Anyone's for a wind fararm or a small modular reactor My kids loveved Charisma. Charisma. Yeah, you're now very popular in my house. It's Terry Pratcht. It's in. somewhere. I'll We're rickened according to them. I'll take it. He's not gonna to complain. And also, of course, we're joined by Tery Per and Times columnist Danny Finlstein. He accused us of being boring last week. so're on your toes, everyone Look, do send your questions to how to win at thetimes. co d. Uk. And look, I promise this is the last time we'll mention this or else Danny will kill us all. But thanks to John who send us a message on Spotify saying Havering. In Scots English it means spouting nonsense.. In English English it means being indecisive. The English version is barely known in Scotland and sorry, the English version is barely known in England And the Scots one, not at all. So that's probably why Polli didn't get the joke and probably why shouldn't made it in the first place. Although I still claim the proclaimer's defence No matter. We're going to be talking about by elections this week because in case you missed it, there's going to be one in Makerfield on the eighteenth of June make a field or break a field. Danny, Andy Berham has called this the most consequential bie election of our lifetimes, is he right Well, it's unique. This has never happened before. Not only is no sitting labour Prime Minister ever been challenged in this way. and in fact, I don't think sitting Tory Prime Minister has because I say that's not true because Michael hasasn't done challenging Margaret E. That has happened for the Tories. hasn't happened for Labour, partly because of the structure of their leadership election. But also there's never been a situation where someone's coming in on a by election to challenge the sitting Prime Minister. So there are only really two, I think relevant parallels Arthur Henderson nineteen thirty one lost his seat. He came back in Cay Cross, someone stood down for him. becausecause George Lansbury was leader of the Labour Party, people thought we might need somebody else, but they were in opposition by that point And actually Hendenson came back in and didn't take over the leadership of party. Lansbury didn't last but when he went Eventually Atley became leader. So there's only rough parallel. The other thing which I think is a better parallel in some ways was Gladsdone in eighteen seventy six deciding that his retirement had been premature Hartington was leading the Liberal Party he was going come back. He started this big campaign, part of which was instead of being the MP for Greenwich, he was going to be the MP for Midlothian, which required a campaign where he'd have to beat the Tory candidate. He ran this the masses versus the classes or campaign and ultimately wins. and therefore Hartington can't really be prime mininister, even though he's leadoser of the party So in the end, Victoria, who doesn't want to call Hth who doesn't want to call Gladson because she can't stand him decides and even hovers with Keepings Israeli who's lost the election, she ends up calling Gladstdone after all, because Gladsdone won't serve under anyone else. So that is the closest parallel. so Hartington basically loses the leadership of the Liberal Party because Gladsdone won't serve him. and I think that's quite a good example of how it might play out including the kind of change of tone of the Liberal Party because it had been quite whiggish sort of more kind of establishment orientated. Gladstone was tilting towards, he wasn't fully a radical or tilting towards that. So that's the best example I could find historically. So Andy Burnham is correct. It's historically unique pivotal politically and who wins is pivotal? Can Labour come back for the mainstream against reform? I mean, Queen Victoria's insult to Gladstone. Mr. Gladstone addresses me as if I were a public meeting, I think is my favourite piece of royal. can't stand her. I mean it turns out. She told she was demented, mad. I mean, she really couldn't stand it. So that does that thing which implies that it was merely a kind of dislike of the way that he spoke, which was extraordinary. You can go on YouTube by the way, because I did this last night and hear Gladstone speak. It's absolutely amazing and bizarre when you hear how he sounds. we'll that for next week, but what shocks learn that Danny Finlstein spends his evening watching speeches of Gladstone on YouTube? Who would have thought it? Sally. Reform says this by election is David versus Goliath and that David is their candidate. Somebody pointed out on my show the other day, David himself might have fared better if he'd had a sort billionaire cryptocurrency ber. But nonetheless. The local elections at the local elections, reform UK won every council award in the constituency. So who's really David here and who's Goliath I think I think reform are going to throw all sorts of stuff out. I mean, they've got to make their candidate who seems a not toertally peleasant person. I mean, they've got to got to make him the underdog, the little person representing everybody locally, that is going to be difficult because isn't you know, it is a totally atypical dialection and Andy Burnham is an atypical candidate. And the fact is he is as local as that guy. and therefore that's much really, really difficult for reform, I think. It's pretty difficult to demonstrate that this is somebody who's come from outside when he's born and bred there and was represented, you know, the seat next door and his kids went to school there. So it couldn't be a more important by election, both frankly for the Labour Party, but as Danny said for the country, because If reform have got to beaten. Are you surprised Sally that he went for such a risky constituency Or I guess it's just the one it's the one that there was? I think to an extent it's the one that there was. However, I also think there is something very compelling about going back to where you have been an MP Um, you know, And I think there's something about Andy that probably I think it It would have been easier in some ways to do a metropolitan Manchester seat, but that wouldn't actually have proved anything. You know, the party to beace is reform. The party be taken that seat because Josh Simons was the one agreed to hand down, not because of Polly is this how you'd like to see the next Prime Minister decided by perhaps fifty percent of seventy six thousand people in one particular part of the country Well, this doesn't necessarily decide the next Prime M minister um does have a different complexion to every other blection becausecause you know normally, if you were reform or you were the lib Dems or the whoever it is yourour whole story in a by election would be yet some local stuff, but really send a message to the government And we know that Kist A arma is very unpopular and we know that actually in the local elections, loads and loads of people including those who actually quite liked their Labour cououncil, say South Yorkshire, whatever, were saying ye What we want to do is send a message to the government that we hate Kist Aama. Well, Andy Burnham is capable of sending a message to the government they wantt rid of Kiirstara. And so therefore, the The time for a change candidate actually is Andy Burnham because he's much more likely to be able to change something in the country than reform. You know, another backbench reform MP won't change anything Andy Berham being elected will change. somethingomet. I think the challenge that he's immediately encountered is tryrying to articulate what that change would be other than some charisma and like Bes. He's said that he won't really change any of the immigration rules. He said he won't change the fiscal rules and he' not going to in fact lead us back into the European Union because he's sort of been boxed in by W streeting. And so The real risk for him is that he loses that change momentum because really what he wants to be is Starma but with a more charming personality. Starma and a T shirt.. So in addition, there are some solid things that people in Manchester talk about in focus groups and things when they talk about Andy Burnham like the transport system. But the other thing that people talk about is COVID So it's that picture of him getting the news about COVID on a phone giving the press conference. that has appealed that has made him a figure of regional appeal. So I suppose it's possible to lean into Manchester in the North in your manifesto. the reason why I put that you probably is because you've previously, for example, talked about moving parliament out of London Um and u I wonder whether that kind of It would mean effectively kind of throwing London Right? In an area where labor obviously didn't do that well anyway, but it would, you know reform's not that strong. so maybe you'd still hold quite a few against the Tories And you would say, I'm actually we've run this country from London too much and I'm going to run it I'm going to spend most of my time here. I'm going to build a downowning street in the north. We'll maybe move Parliament. So obviously Lan into that. He'd get my vote if he did that. Well there you go. I guess It doesn't necessarily need to be that What's missing so far is a sense of what the change is. That's not to say that he's He's been asked whether it's some things that the labor backbenchers would like, like, you know, the immigration stuff And he said, no, it's not that there's just a gap and he hasn't come out of the sort of the traps fast enough, I think, in terms of articulating his agenda. He's got a few weeks It's not all over yet, but that's what I'm kind of waiting to see. And June the clip that I found most interesting of Andy Burnham in recent days was of him talking about VAR And it was supposed to be supposed to be like a short clip like getet rid of it or not. He was supposed to say either yes or no. And he just went instantly. and you know, this is so clearly a man who has thought deeply about it, knows the kind of contours of the argument has passassionately about it And then if you ask him about fiscal policy or immigration policy, I just don't think He's trying to triangulate what it is that he should say for a political context R, Ct controversy say what you believe. If he could get that spirit into his policy agenda, I think that he would be a completely. I mean, I think that's I mean that is incredibly difficult because in the end he's an outsider. I mean great's great plus at the moment is he feels like an outsider, doesn't he? he's taking the slightly He's taking the establishment on in a way But he's going to assuming he moves well but I was going to say assuming he moves the next stage. He's then got the Labour manifesto. He's got the fiscal rules.'s got he's got a set of stuff No, no, no, because he didn't stand for Parliament. I appreciate. of course it's tricky. But he did not stand for Parliament on that manifesto. He was a mayor. No he's he's a party member wasn't it wasn't his, I think, in a way because he's not a part. I mean does more does raise all those kind of constitutional does It does raise all those constitutional issues and they are quite tricky. But the problem he's got and I said this about Liz Truss when she ran in the leadership where I said that she'll run the leadership And then she'll face a foe that's much more difficult to defeat than Rishi Sunak, which is reality. And that's exactly what happened. And the problem he's got with saying these things like I'll abandon the fiscal rules in favour of you know not being in hocked to the bond market is that's a stupid policy and it will come apart if you actually had to do it. So that's the problem you've got is trying to define an agenda that's bold and also sensible. And that's the reason why I do wonder whether this kind of strong Northern leaning thing which doesn't. which you can do more than it costs. He'll do a lot on devolution, I think. I mean, I think it will be devolution power Devolution is too abstract. George Osborne agrees with you. I mean, this is see how Jim and Nielson this spoke like yeah, yeah, and you got to people who are to make a political idea interesting I have an experience once when George Osworne was making a speech in his conference had to cut it down. He took out the section on growth because it was so boring. Yeah yeah. And then afterwards everyone correctly said, where was the section on growth? The next year, what he did was to say, well, here's what you're against and here's what I'm in favor of, right? So on things like nuclear power. and tax and things like that. And you've got to make it you've got somebody's got to be against it. And the thing about The London thing is there will be people obviously live in London who won't be that much in favor of it. You're actually saying something. and I wonder whether he couldn't try that. I love it when you all forget I'm even here but I do have another question, sorry which is fine. mean the by election hasn't started yet so we're not obliged to discuss all candidates. but I want to slightly maybe dispute the idea that it is Burnham who is the change candidate here that Polly mentioned If Kenyan, the reformed candidate wins, That's an absolute crisis for the Labour Party, isn't it? That's like I mean you know Labour has been pretty much derailed by the leadership thing. and the idea is that Andy Burnham puts it back on track in a very, very different way, which is you know sort of an exciting prospect. If that doesn't happen, if reform defeats him there, defeats the person who pretty much everyone in the country regards as the strongest labour candidate that there is. If Reform defeats him with an unknown guy, the plumber Kenyon, U's change isn't it Sally? That's I mean that's catastrophic change for labour. I mean it's catastrophic I think's pretty catastrophic for the country. Never mind labour because I think it then does feel I mean, the red wall for of I mean I hate that description in the sense, It has gone reform at that point. There's nobody because who who who is better than Andy to win that back? So I think it it's devastating. I mean, I don't think he'd be seen as I don't think he'd seen as the change candidate, but a political movement abbsolutely. I mean, a political sort of wind for the country. I mean I mean the reform momentum becomes unable. So you know where I stand politically, but obviously this would be part of the country saying they don't think it's disastrous for the country. So the reason why this would be significant and we discussed this a little bit before was you Birmansy in nineteen eighty three when the liberal Liberals won Birmansy That was not a liberal area, but they won it. This would be a reformy type of area voting reform, right. And I therefore think it's structurally and politically much more significant. It's it would create momentum, but it's less about that than by underlining Labour's structural being structurally overtaken in what it's considered to be its heartland. it would correctly be regarded by the Labour Party as a signal that that's not where their coalition is anymore. And Andy Berham may be the only person who can deliver part of that. I actually happen to think that's a ultimately a dead end for Late Py, but he may he may But they probably doesn't agree with that, so they're trying this. Let's see whet let's see how that works. But I you know, I do think Yes, reform will have a strong thing to say and we just because Burnham is hing himself as a prime minister. Absolutely the fortunes of reform, what reform decided to say because Farage has said be he's going to produce his message for the Red Wall at some point. H offer is what his offer which is very interesting use of words. Let's see what the offer is. That will define reform economically as a political party because Burnham is saying, I'm going to reverse forty years of fascurism. and you Nigel Farraage basically supported that thrust, which is true. and then Farage has got to decide to stick or twist Just before we move on, Danny, your nephew Simon, who came on the podcast recently, was the tory candidate in Makerfield in twenty twenty four, was he not? He found reforma definitely on the march already then. Yeah, so the night of the election, I was the one person who was paying any attention to Makerfield and obviously where Labor was going to obviously win, that was my kind of take. I spoke to Simon that evening after the resort And he said to me or after the result come and he said to me, u Well actually, I wondered when reform got thirteen in the exit poll, whether they weren't going to win Makerfield because it's so strong. He did funnily enough say to me, the only labour politician who's got anything to offer in that seat is Burnham peopleople did talk positively about him, but he didn't he thought ultimately you know, that Josh Simons would lose that seat at the next election, which is obbviously was a factor in Josh's decision And he says very strong reform. and you know, as you know from having Simon on the programe, he's pretty politically sophisticated. So he thinks this is a very tough challenge and every pollster tells me the same. but at the same time Burnham could possibly win it. And if he does, it is a personal victory for him Yes I don't think anybody else would win it actually I mean mean I remember talking to Josh during that election campaign and it was grim. It was really, really grim. on the doorstep. I mean he he thought he was going to going to win, but he thought it was extremely tight Just before we move on, we've had an email from John and he writes H team, An underlying theme on the podcast is that the quality of the individual candidate and his or her ability to move the electoral needle is very small. They are dwarfed by the performance of the economy and the performance of the party. Perhaps I misunderstood this, if so correct me. However, on the premise that I haven't misunderstood this, will Andy Berham be the exception that proves the rule in the upcoming by election discuss wishing you all the best John. I think we've've just answered that eion the answer is the elections are different. So you know, if you look at the Greenwich by election when Rosie Barnes was against that woman D But even beyond that, this by election is different as it this is a novel it's not just Oh, Andy Burnham's amazing and wonderful. If much more than thaty isn't it? Andy Burnham is trying to get rid of the Prime Mis. That's the story that you can sell much more than Andy Burnham's, a great Manchester leader who helped us out in COVID. That's your top layer. But your second layer has got to be, he's going to take out the k . Well look coming up, we are going to talk a bit more about the prospects of tax fful voting and also maybe a bit more about Gladstone. who knows? Welcome back to How to win Election with Sally Morgan, Polly MackKenzie, Danny Finlstein and some other guys shouldn't worry. Look, we've been talking in recent episodes team about block dominance. Which party dominates which block, which party dominates the left block, which party dominates the right block and so on. Danny an Andy Burnham led Labour Party. presumably more easily dominate the left bloc than a Kir Stahmer dominated Labour Party, could it not? Yes. If that's how you think politics will play out, and it's certainly a very credible idea of how it will play out that are you looking. Of course, if you take that theory, one of the results of it is that you tend to try to move into the middle of your block. It's a bit like trying to win a leadership election rather than trying to move into the middle of politics, which is more like winning a general election So I think that's exactly what they're trying to do. And if you look at the polls as to what might happen if Andy Burnham one a leagia perion. in the short run He will be able to achieve more block dominance than Kir Stan was able to. the problem with it is that a lot of the demands of at least part of that block are unrealistic and difficult for any leader to meet. so he may get into power and then begin to disappoint that. But that is the play really. It doesn't look to me as though He has a huge, huge reach outside of Manchester to the electorate as a whole. But obviously when I'm saying there's a chance that reality will make it very difficult for Andy Burndon, there's also a chance that office and goodood selection of a theme, for example, like the one we discussed, might make him a more popular political figure and get momentum and then wins some more of the centre and enlarges the left bloc. Polly, it seems to me that the Greens are always like desperate for Green voters are desperate for a reason to not vote labour, right? And right now they haven't quite got one with Andy Bynen, particularly when it comes to a sort anti reform block vote type thing At some point in this campaign, he will say something about immmigration, he'll say something about Gaza, he'll say something about trans issues. and that will be the reason to not vote for him if you are to his left and green. It will happen because it always happens. Do you think he can survive that in terms of when it comes to an election in holding together that block that he needs to hold together to win an actual election I think It's always really challenging. and that's exactly what happened to the LibDMs, you know in the two thousand five, twenty ten sort of period, is that they were able to kind of sweep up left votes in opposition to things like foundation hospitals or obviously the Iraq warar and The risk though for the Greens is that actually some of those issues are more niche than they think they are. You know, we all of us inhabit our own kind of political bubbles. And it was clear, I think when Zach Polansky you know, responded as he did to the Gold as green stabbing and the police is, you know, wrestling this the offender to the ground on He the way he talked about that it just feels like He thinks of the police as widely expplained understood to be fundamentally problematic rather than plays well on the house vote doesn't well in the country. Act most people support the police. Most people do not think that defund the police is a good idea. So've got there's a sort of somewhere between probably five and twelve percent of people who have these more radical opinions actually Where exactly do you position yourself? Is it right in the middle of the block, as Danny has described, so that you can appeal all the way to the people who want us to you know adopt communism and the middle, or do you do you actually kind of go ort more of a two thirds sort of position where you can get some strength and some reach into the center and also some plausibility as a government by actually saying that there is a line. And you know, Nigel Farage does that, right? Like he has drawn a line at Tommy Robinson and even contested with Elon Musk about that. he has drawn a line which has enabled restore to grow. in some ways Fringe helps you look a bit more normal. Yeah. Sally, I mean, so I mean, Burnham, if everything sort of goes according to the great Burnham plan So this There's essentially there's three elections here, right? There's the by election, there's the leadership election, there's the next general election and I'm interested in seeing how like the path you plot that because it's almost like you go, if you're Andy Burnham, you kind of go a bit right for the by election, then you go left again for the leadership election, but then you got to go right again if it's a leadership election if there's a leadership. I mean, you know my working assumption is that If he if he manages to win the by election I don't think it's going to be serious leadership election. No's all. It's all over. So actually, I think you're talking about two elections in that situation. and I think I think the Tad Frandy is going to, you know, if he pulls this off is going to be How does he position himself? How does he have some big symbolic policies that make people feel that there is change, that it is new, whilst not sort of you know upsetting everybody. Danny solved that way. has, I think Danny's chief advisor. inspired by me, perhaps, he should also go for votes for babies. I mean S everyone. and mandatory cycling for pensioners or whatever it was, right? Look, I mean, the question of whether or not be there'll even be a leadership election. that brings us neatly on to West streeting. He's given his first interviews since resigning with the BBC. He said he didn't launch an immediate challenge against K Starmer because he didn't want to be accused of trying to undermine Andy Burnham's return to Westminster. Sally, is there a path for him to the leadership at all now, or is it all about a job Andy Burnham's cabinet assuming Andy Burnham wins the b. I think if Andy Burnham wins, it's then I mean, I would hope very much that Wes goes back in the cabinet with a decent job. I mean think Andy would be foolish not to do that Because Wees has become sort of representative of part of the party and therefore, if Andy wants to have reach, he should be looking to somebody like Wees plus he was he was actually a goodinet cabinet minister I would be very surprised if W' pushed on with the leadership against Andy if Andy gets in. I mean, I just think it would be I just think it'd be I think actually he'd weaken himself by doing But what if Andy Berham doesn't win? Beuse I mean, then then you have labour stuck in the stake. they in before this even started. But But also what if Andy Burnham wins by like seventeen vote? Doesn't matter. That doesn't matter. It. the returning to Westminster as the triumphant king is slightly undermined if he has said that he's not changing on fiscal policy, he's not changing on immigration policy And he just scraped by with perform with a kind of following he would come up with some hell he will inevitably come up with some big first moves, I think he'll do it when he wins. The stormer the stormer gamble if he decided he was going to fight, which I don't think he would, is that Burnham would then be immediately faced with having to try to win the the greater Manchester mayayorality back for labour again to double prove. So there is a scenario in which he wins the by election maybe flopping over the line. although I kind of agree with Sal. I think any win it will look like You won in a hard fight and it stays down quite well And then He loses the greater Manchester mayayority. But I think we're piling probability on probability. If you look at it, basically if he wins He'll be Prime Minister and cope with all the problems afterwards. I want to talk a bit more though about what happens if he doesn't win, which is a very real prospect Doesn't that Sally, I guess this is one for you. Does't that leave us precisely where we were before Andy Burnham was even standing, where the obvious like Wes wants to go for it, but he hasn't got enough MPs. no one else quites wants to mean what happens to somebody else moves? Now I don't think it would be where where we were actually because If that happened I don't see how somebody else appealing to essentially the Rd Wall on the traditional parts of the Labour Popty who have gone reform. I don't see who's going to do that better than Andy? So I would have thought them there needs to be a very different sort of contest because actually the labour poly would be shifting. But is there a contest at all is my point? because you need a challenger who can get enough MPs to trigger one, orr you just get kissed on a sing there going the protocol I pr the protocol. I don't think wherever we were on numbers before will be very relevant. I think I mean it would just shift Do Does anyone think that if Andy Bham loses kissed on a just stays justust stays and stays and stays and stays like moths Mbe kissed arm think. I think that's possible. But the problem underlying this is that the rate of votes in the large was unsustainable. Labour will have to try something. Admittedly if it's tried the Burnham route and actually failed because he didn't get in against reform U Whereas I think he probably would have won Gordon and Denton for it would have been a better an easier bet. I mean think because I think the Greens wouldn't have then been such a strong candidate and he probably would have beaten them You know, it's going to be I think in those circumstances it'd be very difficult. So West Treeting has also offered up the first big policy of this contest, if you put aside vague sentiments about the EU and stuff. He's promised a wealth tax that works and he's looking at suggesting reforming capital gains tax so that it mirrors the three pounds of income tax. He says it could raise twelve billion pounds a year, Polly Well good policy or bad policy. I'd just like to confirm that that is twenty ten dble Democrat policy U which we 'siry hasn't said that,?ange strange. Yeah. So there's I think a huge amount of just intellectual logic behind the idea that money, wherever you get it from, should be taxed kind of the same. Otherwise you have all of these incentives to kind of arbitrage basically to shift your money from one thing to another When In twenty ten, we were negotiating the coalition aggreement. with support and advice from the Treasury, which was either justust the treasury being the treasury, or them being very sensible, who knows? We went for what we described as the revenue maximizing rate. Now it was a model revenue maximizing rate, but that ended up being a substantial increase, which the Conservatives, you know was a massive push and challenge for them. But we didn't mirror that band fully. fromrom recollection, we went for something like twenty eight percent and with reliefs I think that he is So he might in the end also be talked out of it by the treasury, were he to get into government. but I think that the Principle. that money is money is a really sound one and should absolutely be put further into our tax system Before we move on from this the so the not the expected scenario, but or maybe the expected scenario that he does win the by election. He does take the he does he does take the leadership his his his dream scenario. Interested in your views on the prospects of once he's done that If and whether he goes to the country if and whether he has an election. in a kind I mean, it's it's not the president he'd want to cite, but in a kind of Theresa May way. obbviously didn't go well for her. I want my own manifest. I want my own mand day, I want my own manifesto. I don't want to just be the caretaker for years three years of people waiting to see whether reform takes over next time. Does he have the fight now Well what's the argument for? The argument for it is obviously that if you were going to fight You can fight one of three elections as we've discussed and better the WO, time for change. Brits on the right track don't turn back. You can't If you take the view that you will not be able to fight Britainons on the right track, don't turn back election in three years and you want to fight time for change election. the only time you can fight for time for change election is immediately. So that's the old do you think it might happen, anyone Unless he puts forward an agenda which shifts the polls so radically and so quickly that he would have much more confidence or reallyally, I mean, he could negotiate an electoral pact with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens I don't think he' that. He have to act boldly to do it. So the question was and he'll end up with a smaller majority than the one he's got before going into it. can argue with the structure of the question, couldould it happen? Obviously anything could happen, right? You know, like aot a Scotch egg could have come flying past that window thrown out by a Bulgarian jellalist. That was my next question Scotch egg's just there's a low probability of that happening. So I would say that it's a possibility, but it's not very likely I would say that maybe it's channel fifteen percent possibly. I mean I don't think we should assume he'd run the full term becausecause I think most people You run into trouble if they do the full five years actually. So I don't think you'd assume that. We've had an email from Precious, I want to talk about. she writes. Hyle, huge fan of the show, longtime listener, keepeep up the great work. Thanks, Precious. I've got a question for Sally, she says. For the last fifteen years, Prime Ministers of all parties have become deeply and unpopular once in power. Why do so many people assume Andy Bernam would be different Abssence of any articulated radical ideology as to why it would be different, Berham faces the same economic and political constraints as Kir Stara, and if he can't deliver rapid change, wouldn't he end up facing the same issues? At that point, doesn't the problems stop being Stara and become a wider issue for labour itself, Sally? I mean there's certainly a wider issue for labour itself, but he is not Kir Stara and the difference is He can communicate and he's got personality and he does He's sort of g I mean Danny's right talking about the North he's he is grounded in where in where he's from and he's comfortable with that. He's comfortable from his own skin And I think you know, if anything, the ability to communicate direction and hope and a chance that things are going to get better is more important now than it's been for a very long time. And the challenge for him is going to be can he set out a clear you know, a clear direction and some key points along that journey to demonstrate he's making progress. But, you know, That's what he's got to do. I mean, I can see the narrative here because mean you can see it particularly like this week, plenty of stories going, the economic stuff is working, the economy is improving or at least getting getting worse, less quickly. And the reason why this isn't being sold, the reason why people don't believe it, the reason why people don't feel better is just Kir Stama.ll any of that U it doesn't feel true when I go to the supermarket, you know, and I think everybody feels that, you know. Energy costs are just out of control and you know we are out of control of the things that are driving them up, right? becausecause we cannot control Donald Trump It is always going to be a difficult kind of fiscal job, but that's where actually Europe is just such an important part of the answer, not just because it would alter, I mean, only at the margin, right you know a few extra basis points of GDP, but it would alter the economic trajectory but also send a signal to these datted bond markets that we're serious about growth and kind of trade liberalisation There are various deeregulations, particularly around planning where the government is doing well, but they could They could do better, they could go further and faster So I think you can set forward a more kind of economically ambitious agenda And it feels like to me it's there for the taking, but it has to come with an acknowledgement of how hard it is for people You know, on the ground And the reality of people's daily daily living. When it was Gouron and Denton and, the new Green MP gave that victory speech. Yes, we all s It was a great speech. Honestly, any political party could have given that, but that's the mood of the country is I'm just fed up not being able to afford things And I sort of thought that Kist Arma promised he'd make it better and he hasn't has to be a new story Danny, the burn and bounce is effectively what we're talking about here. How long How long do you see that? potentially lasting. So I think that there are two things that Labour has to do, One of which Berham could potentially deal with, which is it has to Britain to a better destination, so deliver things and that agree is the most important. And then also he also has to explain the track we're on so that appears to be the result of his setting out in a certain direction and taking it. And that second thing, I think he'll be I think it's hard to imagine anyone being worse than Kistar, partly because he's not very good at it Tnically he's not very good at it, but also he doesn't believe in it. He thinks it's a stupid thing to do. and I think he's just simply wrong about that and it represents a naivety about politics, which has turned out to be very consequential. So I think Berham could deal with that second thing. If he has an idea how to make Britain better in certain concrete ways, and you know we've talked a little bit all of us about how that might be. There obviously wouldn't be The same ones I'd pick, but they but they If they work, they work. You know, I've got some questions over whether they would, but They might On the Europe thing, I do think that is a bit of a dead end. there's one policy which is returning Britain to the European Union, very, very hard, potentially could be you know could be involving us in debates about the euro, public opinion could swing back against it. And anything short of that gets you back into the same issues we had before. And we're so susceptible then to the European Union, particularly the French, saying no. And we've been here before because McMillan tried to revive his government with the idea that we would be would modernize by going to Europe that would Britain's sort of malaise and kind of feeling of latitude and you know the sort of old establishment being out of date, which was so strong in the early the late nineteen fifties, early nineteen sixties would be dissipated by this move And he said, Ted Heath to negotiate it and everything. And then Deul said, no And then McMillan didn't have anything else to offer. So I just think you are handing the ability to define whether you're a modernizing government with a mission to someone else out of your control with no interest in helping you. And I think that's a mistake. mean I think he'll go really heavily on skills actually. And I mean you know, in Manchester he' done he's done his version of the back. I mean, I don't think it's got really got very far, but he's committed to that And it'll fit with, you know, what we haven't talked about is immigration figures are way down today. So So that was going to be Faragi's big big argument. So you've got immigration figures down, but then if Andy puts that with reskilling, reskilling and sixteen year olds actually having more options, I think that will be be a very core argument for him, I think. Why do you think he's let it be known, Burnham that he supports Shaban Mammouid's immigration policy? Because immigration is a significant issue locally. I mean, it isn't in a way. I mean, the reality of life there isn't, but nevertheless, it's Farraage's biggest biggest argument. Polly, do you want to hit back by the way atany's attack of your on your Europe thing It's certainly complicated because the European Union I think we would welcome Britain back. They'd be tough negotiators, but they'd be keen It didn't feel like it would be reversed three years later by a reform government. And so that's why you'd need to be careful I think the big prize actually is frankly arming the coast of France to stop the small boats. You know there is a sense, I think, from lots of radicals, reform and labour, that wouldn't it be nice if we basically just put gunboats in the channel. But unless you're basically willing to drown people to frighten the others that it doesn't work. and actually being able to renegotiate very seriously with France on the basis of kind of a new economic settlement as well I think is your best chance at dealing with the much more important element of immigration than the question of settlement after ten years or twelve years or fifteen years, which nobody really follows Well just before we finish off, we've had a look at Danny's YouTube browsing history, Filthy. But here's a recording of William Gladston in eighteen eighty eight. My myer. The acquaint which you have just made of me E the record M line That was a recording for Thomas Edison's wax cylinder phonograph. Is that how he talked all the time? the thing that's really funny is he's What annoying man. He's booming. Well, that's of course what Victoria thought But hear this booming voice and he says my voice isn't quite what it used to be, right? He's actually suggesting that he used to boom even louder. but you can relieve me of of a great sense of frustration, Hugo, because I was on any questions in Chatham. and Chatham is the place where there was the best piece of political heckling ever. Wilson had spoken up in favor, Harb Wilson had gone there,' spoken up in favour of the Navy and then used that sort of speech thing that you say, which is why do I say that? And someone shouted up because you're in Chatham And that is the answer to the question is why has he said that? because he's in Makerfield. Right? But that's it for this week. Next time, you can hear the latest in our series looking at how the big selections were won lost. We'll be hearing from Michael Heseltyine, the original big Beast of the Conservative jungle on Markaret Thatcher's nineteen eighty three landslide in the wake of the Falklands. He was a defefense secretary in one of the party's most prominent performers as well. Do keep sending your questions to how to win at the Times. co. Uk. Thanks very much for being with us on how to win an Election