Steve Hilton and Political Imagination

Quick question, when was the last time a display ad changed your mind Now think about the last time a friend told you about something they loved. Different feeling, right? That's how podcast advertising works. A host who's built real trust with their audience talks about your brand in their own words, in their own voice. It doesn't interrupt the experience. It's part of it. With ACast, you can access the world's largest podcast marketplace Choose the right shows, the right audiences, the right format. Then watch the data tell you it worked. You're not buying impressions You're buying influence Learn more by visiting acast d. com slash advertise un I it beat people harder and they'll get back to work. He doesn't really believe in strong whipping. It's nice we've got such a pantic audience, isn't it? I feel we can turn that noise into something like a get whenever I press a button. Welcome, welcome. Welcome one and all. Welcome back to Howouse to win Election. I'm Hua Riffkin, and I'm joined as by former Labour insider. Tim's Ready' answer to Christinine Aguilera trying to put the Jeneie back in the bottle. It's Sally Morgan. Hello.id Christine Aguilera put theenie back in the bottle? I don't remember. We're also joined by policy quQueen, Polly Mackenzie I just feel like twenty five years of trying to be taken seriously have come to an end. I was hoping they were going to make a noise after to making myself. When did they come to a beginning? Oh, come on, that was rubbish. I know, I'm not very good at it. You do it better. We'll get it played out in a minute. I'm going to beified today. And we're joined by Torory Pier, Tes colonist, expert in St strong whipping. it says here, sounds reepy Danny Finglstein Hello Danny Hello Hello How are you? How's everybody? Are we all well? I don't know I've ask. raining though, doesnn't it? Yeah, we can't fix that. Sorry. How to fix the weather is our next podcast to fix that. I'm dealing with it at night. I've plan to have it fixed by about Friday night. No I' ready. Arya, the sort of DAPper style big science agency that Dominic Cummings invented, which is actually really excellent are working on kind of GeO engineering to be able to control the weather So, you know,' Steve Hilden have some plan? But she must have been in the same office while he did it to seed. Steve was interested in, yes, sort emerging geo engineering capabilities We are going to talk about Steve Hil that They'll probably se end up privatising the weather. We'll have to pay a subscription every week so it doesn't rain. I mean, just it's a nightmare. Look, send us your questions as to how to win A thetimes. co dot UK. We always want to know what you're hearing We have had news we've had an email, we think about our youngest listener U Xiaoo Xiao, forgive me from Shanghai, wrote him with a picture of his daughter Zoing, lying in her cot watching our most recent episode on YouTube. Zaoing is about three weeks old and her dad writes, I should add that this is her third episode already. She was amused by her father by Heseltn's denial of responsibility last week. On a more serious point, Chris Patton used to say that the last goovernor of Hong Kong was elected by voters in Bath by kicking him out, but that one remains the most popular leader in Hong Kong even today. Thank you, Xiao. and if you know of any younger listeners, please do get in touch. The record the record yeah, the record to beat is three weeks. Polly, would your policy of votes for babies work in China as well I think there are some other wider concerns about democracy in China I'm certainly happy to extend the campaign to any nation that wants to welcome me to its shores. Right, good. OK. Look we're only a week away from the Makerfield B election. And as we've discussed, this really is unparalleled in the history of by elections because the voters in this handful of former mining towns and villages in the northwest of England are also choosing the next Prime Minister or not We're going to focus on what happens in the hours and days after the by election if Andy Burnham wins. Danny, the few constituency polls have conducted very small samples, so they do need to be treated with caution, but it does look like Andy Burnham is currently most likely to win. It does look like that. you picked that up from all sorts of people. So I've picked it up from labour contacts. I was told a kind quite a senior reform politician went there and commented afterwards every doorstep I found that I was either too racist or not racist enough. And so they've got this problem of being split between people who won't vote for them because because of them being sort of reform as labor orientated and some people who were more restore orientated. And obviously, although the restores only a chunk It may be a big enough chunk to notot just to defeat them in numerical terms, but to remove their inevitability. and you need that in a by election. So by elections are one of the things in politics that are quite momentum driven. If they catch on, so sometimes a by election takes place, noobody really knows that it's going on. Nobody knows anything about it I understand that this is an exception, Makerfield And therefore, people are paying attention. So I think two things about reform have been a problem, the candidate saying things about women and refusing to apologise for them and his evident weakness on question time. know and it ended up looking like you'd be as having him on question time as Andy Burnnon would be mending my tap. And you know whoever said yes in headquarters and thought it was a good idea. He does have strengths that candidate. I find him quite a liable person, not online, but when you actually hear him talk. And he's clearly not a politician, an ordinary person with all the strength that that has. He would actually bring in a sort of diversity sense, he would bring something actually. but putting him on question time, that's a really difficult program to do. I've done it myself several times and' and I always hesitate before doing it And I've done a lot of programs. So for someone who's never done anything like that, it was a big askk. It's also a show that it's a lot easier if're journalist than if you're a politician. I've done it a few times and it's fine becausecause you say what you think. you're not looking over your shoulder to think about what you're meant to think. Yes and you have your own opinion.'re not sharing you haven't got to share the opinion with you know Richard Tys and Zia Esis and Danny Kruger, who not and Robert Jen may not share opinions with each other. Look we're going to turn to reform explicitly in a bit. so let's not shoot our bolt too soon. Turning back to labour. If Labour doesn't win, if Andy Burnham doesn't win, then labour is plunged into sort of existential despair. Let's assume for the purposes of this conversation that he does, I mean indeed as the polls and the bookies are saying. Sally, he gets off the train at Eouuston next Monday. He arrives in Westminster in a black t shirt, good man. Does he What does he do? Does he seize the moment and try and become PM as quickly as possible or what I don't know what he'll do. I genuinely don't know I keep sort of changing my mind about what he'll do. I mean, I think he shouldn't do it too quickly personally because I think he needs time to get his ducks in a row and assuming he wins. whether it's polic, whether it's thinking the struct of number ten, whether it's thinking the cer of government, I suspect he hasn't got time, and nor should he. I mean, there's nothing worse than that sort of measuring the curtains thing. So he shouldn't be spending time on that at the moment. because actually he's got to fight for every vote, and I think he is fighting for every vote. So I think he's doing a lot of it himself door by door by door, and I think that's the right thing to do. I hope he doesn't dash in and say, here I am and move over. I think he needs longer What do you think Polly? Should he put together like put together a manifesto, makeake sure the whole country knows what will happen if he does win before he challenges or what? The timing in the end might not be of his choosing. You know there was a sense of Kir Stalmer being in his last moments in Downing Street really before this by election came about which led to everybody in Westminster going, okay, we'll pause so that Any gets a fair run at it And that means that question of nominations rushing in and it just being that a leadership election is upon us, it seems more likely than not Obviously, everyone should publish a manifesto. personal vision for the country because I mean not just politicians, everyone Exactly It should be a mandatory piece of citizen service. and I'd be happy to charge for my services to. I'd be happy to read them all So one of the rules I think in politics is that if you can see something's definitely going to happen, it always happens earlier than you think because everything everybody assumes it's going to happen on that creat his own momentum. So Andy Berham will respond to these questions on election night and everything quite easily, right? You just say, know I've only just been elected, I'll take this reference sereriously I'm going to go down to Parliament and consult my parliament and colleagues, all that stuff. The problem is not so therefore, Polli iss right. I don't think he sets the timetable. What also happens is a journalist goes to Shabana Mahmd and asks her whether she completely supports Kst Dahmer or how long she supports him. She is the homeome seecretary. If she doesn't support Kst Dahmer, she can't remain part of his government. So I think within the first few days, the sort of pressure of those questions could crack arma and the government. And then the question is it for Andy Berham, he just has to stand there. If they respond to that, well there isn't a contest at the moment Then you've still got West streeting saying yes, there is a contest. and where streets. So I don't think you think you're right, Paulies is Hy Burnham or not control this and I think it will accelerate faster than that Andy Bernham would wish than that you rationally might think. I don't think he's going to get the chance to kind of go, well, I'll think about it. let me get. No don I don't think we're talking weeks or months here at all. I mean, it's more that I don't think it'll happen on Monday if you see what I mean. But that's just about I don't think it'll happen on Friday, but I do think it could happen Monday Tuesday, Wedesday. Yeah. I'm off on Monday. I prefer it happen on Tuesday, if that's all the same to everyone. Look, I think I mean, that's just talking about when a leadership contest gets triggered. The process of when when this might happen when he could become Prime Minister. So the next Labour conference is in Liverpool, which is one of several places Andy Burnham is from. And you know would he perhaps try and negotiate like a hand overver there following a contest? What do you think Andy? I think it completely depends here Stalmer faces up to the fact he has to go I mean, at the moment, there is the most bizarre briefing coming out, which is all about, you know,body and if any minister says they're not supporting me, well I'll suck them. And I mean, it's just it's like watching you know the dying emmbers, frankly, it's grim. Is it though? Is it inevitable he has to go? Is it inevitable that he loses to Andy Boham if there's a contest Yes. Okay this is a clear answer. So just remember that what happen before that, right? if he is not going to lose to Andy Burnnam, we'll learn that very quickly because nobody will resign from his government when Andy Burnerham begins when it becomes obvious that there's going to be a leadership contest Then he's kept together the whole of the cabinet, Ed Mil Liband, Shabana Mahmud, Bat McFadden, you know, the whole of this of the Labour establishment is uniting behind him. He's losing a couple of junior ministers. and then you problem is you know for Andy Burnham's quite difficult. But can we any of us see it happening? I can't really. I think I don't know, they're such I mean, I'd say this as unpjoratively as I can, but they're such cowards. Nothing nothing is I mean, they don't move unless they have to move. Nothing is one hundred percent certain, but I do think When you talk to labor people, cellos is more than po Bically when you talk to labour people There's a feeling of his aspperation with Stara. There's a knowledge they can't possibly go into the next election with him. So he might he has go at some point. And again, once you begin to think that, it always happens before you So maybe they would say let's give us another year, but that's not possible. What about Manchester? Because he will have to campaign at the moment he gets elected, if he gets elected, then there has to be an election in Manchester the Mayalics. he can't do both jobs And he'll have to presumably have to campaign for that. It gets triggered straight away. I think there's reporting this week that suggests Labor thinks they'll hold it because they've switched from first passast the post to a form of PR which could help. But I mean, that's still's quite it's quite the distraction, isn't it It is a distraction, I mean, I mean, Andy woned using with a form of PR. He won the Myalty that way and I think I think for him, that's been very important in defining how he does his politics. I think it's been really a really good thing because you have to fight for second preferences and you have to talk to everybody rather than just talk to your core vote 's lookook, it's not helpful. It's not helpful. It is a distraction. but I mean, of course you'll have to campaign. if he wins the by election, you'll have to go and support the Labour candidate for the Mayoralty. But it's an election that will be going on after this by election that Labour could lose that will also be going on at the same time as the leadership election. and if Labour does lose, it's his fault. Isn't that? That's politically complex. I think what we don't know is if it de I think it depends how he wins the by election. if A A he wins B by what sort of majority. If he wins more than restore the majority is bigger than reform and restored together, if you know, could have done, I think I think that gives him quite a powerful position and I think there will be a bit of a sort of uptick in labour support actually. So it may not last, but I think there will be I think there'll be a bit of a honeymon, a bit of a o, well we're back And I think that could help with the meralty Polly, we've got another Andy Burnn policy for you to get your teeth into. He told the Hustinings on Wednesday that the waspie women deserve compensation And if he follows through, that could be a ten point five billion pounds commitment, what you think you know, I would take the Wpie women a lot more seriously if they changed their name to women in favour of state pension inequality. I I cannot understand how they're campaigning. has managed to so many normally sensible and normally fiscally hawkish people includcluding on the right, who tend to say, well, it's your responsibility to look after your finances, who tend to be against welfare, to just say, o, because you actually weren't paying attention and the government didn't send out enough letters you to carry on having an earliest state pension than men, even though women live for longer and earn a lot less.ike this is one in which my normally feminist credentials fail me, I'm afraid Women and men should get the same pension at the same age And people who didn't notice that was happening, it should be on them. It was a terrible, terrible commitment Right So I commitment Well I' very worried that he did this because my big fear about him as a leader is that he just says yes to whoever's in front of him. And this does tend to go with that because if you were thinking, actually I've got three or four big things that require more money and this is only one of the things let's assume that he didn't agree with ing myself that this wasn't actually a good use of money at all. But let's assume you thought they had a justified case. still a huge amount of money. So if 's going to commit to that. he can't commit to all other things. It's a really extraordinary commitment Or at least you say it isn't a commitment. I would be very doubtful that this would happen because I think he did say it, didn't? Well I think you're right that he shouldn't you know, he's got to think before he speaks, but actually somebody's going to have to sit down and go through the figures. I mean, in fairness, he said they deserve compensation. It might not be theull templentide vion. might be you know Exactly. So I think I remain unconvinced that this is a serious commitment. I think where he will probably make a commitment would be something around social care. and arguably that is probably more important for many women than you know defending defending the Wby rights. Polly the Women's equality party on the Wpy womomen. I don't think that the party had a policy, certainly when I was involved It hadn't quite kind of surged in momentum in the way that it did. But as an issue, you mean? Yeah as an issue as a campaign. you know as a piece of political organizing, you know, has been very impressive, you know, which reminds us all that we should not take for granted women in their fifties and sixties, they are an incredible political force, nevertheless. Yeah I still remember the Women's Institute Conference. Yeah, absolutely. And I tend to agree with Sally that I don't think he has made a commitment. I think it's in that like, wouldouldn't it be nice if we could do nice things? And yeah, sure. But like being the prrime Minister is much harder than I think pro of something that I would expect as a Tory, which is the incredible righteous fury of people who think they deserve somebody else's more of someone else's money. It's not that you can obviously make a case for it because you can make a case for a lot of things, but it's weaker than a lot of cases for more money. It's just that people because it involves really big amounts for you know rel for a limited number of people, they feel very, very strongly about it and therefore It's easy to get them to But it's to kind of impress our opinion on others. But isn't this the harbing of an Andy Berurnham leadership contest that a lot of people are going to be asking him for money. There's going to be a lot of sort of know cuse celebrities. O But there's a real difference between being in the middle of a by election in a hustings being in a position where he's got to think hard and put his case forward and work out what he'd really do. I think know that's a completely different level of preparation. I assume he'd have a serious team around him. You said earlier Hugo that it was easier for journalists to go on question time. So one of the issues, obviously is the sharing of opinion of other people. But the others is that you can say no to people. You can actually say things like, I don't think we desve a triple lock O what I just said about Waspy womomen, which would have been politically disastrous thing to say, but I can say it because it's just my opinion. and I'm not you know accountable for my opinion. I'm accountable for my opinion, but' not I don't have to share my opinion. there as a politician at the very least, you' to sign off my opinion. That sort of slightly sal reply, wouldn't you? You can also say I have no view on that at all and I don't care We'll be back in a moment. We're going to talk about what an Andy Berham victory would mean for reform UK. We're also going to talk about whether Steve Hilton will win the election to be the next goovernor of California Summer is here, which means we all want to look and feel our best. A GLP one may be right for you. Visit orderlymeds dot com to learn more about which GLP one you could be eligible for. Getting started is fast, easy and happens virtually if you telemedicine from licensed professionals. Check it out for yourself. Go to orderlymeds dot com slash podcastot That's orderlymeds dot com slash podcast Taking care of yourself feels great. CA medications are not FDA approved eligibility required and determined by a licensed provider and individual results may vary your website for details You've got social dialed in Search is doing its thing. So why do your marketing results look the same as six months ago? That's because you're fishing in the same pond as everyone else. Podcast listeners are a different audience entirely. more engaged, harder to reach through traditional channels, and ready to act when someone they trust makes a recommendation We're a caste, and we put them right in front of you Browse thousands of the world's leading podcasts, book host reads or run your own ads, and track every conversion in real time. Same skills you already have, brand new results. Acast Acast d. com slash advertise Welcome back to House to Win Election with Sally, Pollly Danny and Hugie. We're talking about the Makeerfield by election. it is a week away. We're going to talk about reform in just a moment, before we do, Sally, how easy will Andy Burnham If he does win, find it to pull together a team that can hit the ground running in number ten U I would have thought he would find it fairly easy. I think the question is who I mean, I don't know who he'll put r him. He needs to put a very good team around him. Andy Andy somebody who is at his best if he has really capable people around him because he doesn't he won't want to do it all. He won't think it should all be him, but he'll know that you as leader, he's got to he will benefit from having good people. people would I mean, there will be if this happens, there'll be a renewed energy and people will be ready to help, I think I mean, so Louise Hague, the former transport seecretary is running his by election campaign. Can you see her pivoting into you know running his plan for government I genuinely don't know. I He is close to is he is close to Louise Louise. I mean, u I don't know. I think I always think it's quite difficult for an MP to do that I think it's I think on that I think it's difficult, it's difficult because in a way you're of of the PLP and yet you're not. So I think it's I think it's quite complicated. I mean, I hope he I hope he actually also thinks who is there in the civil serervice who is really good and I can pull in What's it Pul? I mean, it's that thing when you're setting up a programm for government when you're righting the coss of it? that you kind of want the politicians to butt out a bit and getting people like people like Paulie Mackenzie I think Sally's right. It It is hard to be a constituency MP and sort of an advisor And actually the advisory role, which you know, which can of include a huge amount of power and kind of operational responsibility. But nevertheless, the point is you, you know, you serve at the pleasure of of your minister is really important and So Peter Hyman, who we've had on this show before, wrote a really interesting article just this week sort of setting out the twenty five different roles you need in government I think is really good with the slight challenge is that he doesn't add an org chart And so it sort of feels a bit like you've got I think you need about six really, really good. Exactly. The most important thing is that absolutely courtiam. Sue Grace free, I think. No And it's not just that you need six talented people, you need a team of six people who are loyal to you and most importantly of all actually loyal to each other because it is the briefings against one another that destroy the team responsibility. It's not always difficult hitting the ground I think we can all agree that. The problem is hitting the ground running and then you've got to decide which direction you're going. My view is that the really big problem in this government is a hole where political leadership needs to be and I don't think there's a problem providing them with first class executives to implement the first all political executives to carry out what the government wants to do. The problem has been it hasn't really had a political strategy that works and the Prime Minister hasn't been bought into it in sofar as he did have that strategy. So having a connection where he You know, the thing about Tony Blairs Downstreet. He has some very talented people, one of whom is sitting with me. was a notably talented team of people that surrounded Tony Blair, but the most important person in that was always Tony Blair. And so it's got to come from Andy Burnden. this is the reason why I was a bit nervous were worried when we heard this waspie woman thing because the key thing is the team's got to know what he's going to say no to as well as what he's going to say yes to. You know Margaret Thatcher a key point is they knew what she didn't want, what she didn't like, how she didn't want things to be presented to her, what she didn't want to say, how she wouldn't react and With Kir ararma, people have no idea. and the problem with that the question with Andy Burnham is will they know what he's going to say no to? Sure. Let's move on. I want to talk about reform because look, if reform wins this by election, then Nigel Foyjer's Party is going to look unstoppable. but sticking with our assumption for the moment they don't. the labour wins. What does that mean for reform? So I've written my column in the timimes this week, Danny about this scenario, that' it would be the second by election defeat for reform, both of which were arguably winnable. It could look like a bit of a crisis for Nigel Farage, not least because it's partly down to As you said, it'll be partly down to the candidate. And was this really the best they could do? Well, was it was a reasonable hypothesis that candidate, which is you contrast the politicianany person Andy Burnham is with someone who isn't a politician, although I've always thought though electorate like that in theory. In practice they sort of go Well, I'm sure he'd be a very good plumber, but wouldood he be a good MP, right? And people actually do think like that. There are bits that say We don't want yet another politician. Another bit say f with another plumber. Yes, but they think he's going to become a politician by the way. So therefore he doesn't get the full value of not being a politician because he's running to become one. So I think that was always a proble But the biggest problem is This is one of their target seats, right? Yeah this is sixth or seventh by any stretch of the imagination. So not to win it is very serious. The split with restore in a biollection like this is properly serious to them. It splits their demographic of what is already a limited exercise. So basically you've got the Touries with the ability at their peak to get forty four percent reform who at their peak maybe could get thirty onecent, thirty two percent. That was at their absolute peak, normally running at about twenty seven percent. Now if you add restorer as a political party, they're losing eight. Yeah they could get eight. right? So that is very serious for them I mean I w let's talk specifically about a bit more about restore and not just when it comes sort on the ground in a by election like this. The argument I make in the column is that the restorer and now hounding reform basically in the same way that Farage handled the Tories. And you can see that very specifically this week with their attack on Robert Genrich and Sa Braaman who are both now in reform and were respectively immigration mininister and homeome Secretary when the suspect in the Belfast attacks arrived in Britain. So it's very much a sort attacking reform for their complicity in government. What I write in the column is it just kind of makes me laugh. Do you know what I mean, Sally? I do know what you mean. I mean it does seem it feels to meiss wellell. it is driven by a very sort of personal venom actually. know it is clear that Low loathes Farraage in an incredibly sort of visceral way I am watching with a level of sort of fascination at it really, because But I mean I think Danny's right, by the way, if reform can't pull this off and Andy is a difficult candidate for them to defeat. It does feed into a kind of they have they peaked? A they on the way down? If they can't pull this off, then where are they? So I think it's very serious one. The only problem is I can't laugh completely at Restore because of the nature of that party. It it doesn't regard me as British because they say that people of indigenous heritage and Christian faith are the only people who are British And Charlie Downsair spokesman says he wants to use state power to restore the spirit of the nation. And he defines that nation in an ethnoationalist way. And I think that's quite a sinister philosophy, which we've seen in other places before. So Nigel Farage's great contribution. I realize that people won't like this particularly, but his great contribution to that kind of politics was I don't deal with I'm not going to go down the ethnoationalist route and deal with that. He's now being pushed off that He's now al I'm going' now I'm going to nod at it a little bit. Well you yes. So he say but no he's been pushed off that stance.. He was tryed definitely trying to normalize the reform and now he's realizes that really can't do that. Putting aside Pollly, the what he thinks about everything,et whether you're Ngel Farge or Rupert Low fraudes problem at the moment. It's the classic problem of a centrist, isn't it? that you're being attacked on both sides and the more you tilt it one way, the more you lose out the other way Well, I wouldn't go far as calling him a centrist, But he did have that objective of trying to move to the centre to replace the Conservative partarty, to be a more centre right party and to close off, which he did he made attempts at in terms of not dealing with Tommy Robinson, including challenging Elon Musk about about doing that U In order to do that, I mean the The worst thing he's done is absorb some literal Conservative party representatives. and the problem is that Rupert Lowe is right. And so just as the conservatives find it hard to adopt this position, which is we've been doing immigration wrong for the last fifteen years because it's like, well, though it was you guys He now has those people on his front bench Fage, so Why , because I got them to apologize. Well, you know and it was interesting there was Robert Genrick giving a speech in the House in the last couple of weeks talking about you know Uh, u, where where just criticizing the government policy and being laughed at by the Lib DemMs because of course he was responsible for those polies. He does have answer, which is G know, I left the government and then I left the party. So don't I think the that's an SW one answer, right? I think people it's like you were the immigration minister. you went on Sky News and said I'm really proud of the fact that we're bringing new asylum hotels online really fast. the defining the consisten the practical re the practical reason for why Nidal Farage has these people in his party embarrassing as it is is because if he doesn't, then it's a party that just has Matt Goodwin and Rob Kenyon. Yeah. But't I would say there's no particular disbarrassment to them. he say you know, Matt Goodwin, I know that People don't like Mat Gobwin, but Mat Gobwin has written some of the most perceptive analysis of what has been happening to politics and hass been right in his analysis of what to expect to happen to. It doesn't mean he could win fifteen years. No, that's true, right. But what I'm trying to say is that the dilemma and I always put it So Gubin's theory had two parts, right? One was there's room for a culturally conservative party that's to the right of the Conservative partarty that doesn't have to kind of you know have centrists involved in it can be a bit more aggressive in that policy, but also left wing populism on economics. that they don't have ex conservativ. So that's the problem the problem The problem is that that's a political party reform has not become partly because Nigel Farage is himself, you know Nigel F noobody agrees with the suggestion that David Cameron once made about UKIip being full of fruit cakes and closet races more than Nigel Farage does. right? He really believed in it. And so therefore what he's trying to do is make the the the reform into the kind of thatcherite dream party. But that is actually not where, as Matt Gubin has correctly analysed, where the reform vote is and what's happening is he's now losing part of that. The interesting thing will be whereether Rore now outbid him on economics because actually Rupert Low's also quite right wing on economics. So it wouldd be very interesting to see whether the restore go there. If they do go there I think that reform is in a lot of trouble for them. We've got to move on in just a moment. before we do Sally, I want to ask you specifically about Belfast because Look, we there has been a current of thought for the last few months becauseabaking Labour is making great strides on immigration. Immigration numbers are way, way down. and that was the idea was that was going to neutralize immigration as a contentious political argument I wonder if Given the scenes we've seen in Belfast, you know, given given the fallout over the Henry Novak murder as well whether Whether that's no longer true, whether even though the numbers are coming down immigration is still returning to that sort of pole position in political concerns? I think immigration hadn't gone from being a very significant concern actually. So I thinkab mean I think Chabon is doing a really good job as Home Secretary. and I think she's making really steady progress. and you couldn't have anybody better in that job actually at the moment dealing with what's going on But I mean, I don't know. I mean, maybe maybe it's wishful thinking, but I do feel There is such widespread horror at watching the scenes from Northern Ireland. but I hope that we're able to say, let us have a you know, let's have a rational conversation about immigration. but There is no tolerance for what's going on there. I want to talk now about Steve Hilton, often mentioned on this podcast, mainly because she shared an office in Downing Street with Polly and never once bought her a iced bun. He's going to face Joe Biden's health secretary, Zaviia Pacera in the election for the next goovernor of California in November. He's been backed by Donald Trump. If he wins, he'll be the first governor to run the state in the first Republican governor to run the state in fifteen years. Polly How's this happened? David Cameron's radical thinker, best known here for wearing t shirts and no shoes and not buying you an n iced bun. How has he become such a major force in California politics? Well, so he moved with his wife to California sort of after a couple of years in the Cameron administration, his wife being a very senior executive at Google. think who had previously been an advisor to Michael Howard. And she had a proper job so he could sort of you know freelance a bit. about. made a lot of friendse a book called I believe, more Human and then got a gig as a presenter on Fox News, built up a sort of radical following, became more and more kind of trumpist, I guess, you know, managed to read the mood of the time, I think, and ride that wave since quit that to go into politics. And I think what's interesting about his campaign is that he has pursued it as sort of a lone wolf. He's gone out with like his car and his camera and just like talk to people. and he's actually really good at being U empathetic to to people hearing their complaint. L he's got very strong one on one relational skills, and I know that that sounds ludicrous because he's also very good at having a temper tantrum and annoying everybody. But when he's in the mode to listen and engage, he is actually really good at that did. sorry. No,'s to ask how important a figure he was because he's become because of what Fleet Street does, because of what Westminster does, because of what Amandu anduchci did in the thick of it, he's become something of a joke figure. But how significant was he? he was quite significant, although I think George Osborne was always more significant advisor to David Cameron and then later Andy Carlson was. and they always j It was slightly jy do against each other, but in politics Really important quality is creative imagination. If you think of great leaders, they reinvent their political idea in a way that you packaging it and explaining it in a way that you hadn't thought. So Tony Blair had immense creative imagination. Market Thatcher, in other ways, unimaginative had a lot of political creative imagination Churchill had creative imagination. It's not essential because I don't think Atley did, but the government itself was novel. so it did have that. Kirst Stm has no creative imagination and it's a serious problem for him.ve Steve Hilton, I think among all the people around David Cameron had the most creative imagination. David I don't think particularly did, but he had the ability to discover George and Steve, both of whom had different kinds of creative imagination, George over policy, things like on pensions, and Steve over themes and mood and idea. Donald T the interesting thing because the reason he's comees cond because he's got Donald Trump's endorsement and that help people decide which of the plural Republican candidates to support. But Donald Trump is also somebody who's got a lot of creative imagination. So he has created this political persona completely novel position, repackaging Republicanism in a way communicates in who it appeals to while still retaining some of the base vote. It's very clever clever thing to do. And what we wait to see is does Andy Burnham have that? Does Kemy Babnock who shows some signs of having it? does she have the ability to elevate a series of responses into a kind of overall approach. And Steve Oton was very that One of the reasons he became a joke was because he was doing insane things literally nobody else even thought about doing. especially as a Tory. That thing that we're talking about padding around in his shoes over You know, Dominic Cummings also later did all those kind of things. One of the reasons they did that was because they were from completely Dominic Cum was also a very politically imaginative person, so much so that he doesn't fit comfortably with anyone. And that actually happened a bit with Steve He was also quite I mean I think he was quite open and engaging. I can remember it must have been in the early days when he was in number ten when he was indeed padding around A called you know, he asked me to go and see him quite a few times. I mean, he wanted to talk to people. He wanted to he wanted to think outside the box and just think, well I didn't do that? What did they do? Danny's completely right, that George Oossmond was more important and influential But I think Steve for all of his faults, which are many was much more interesting. ually So George wasor in a very sharp political mind of understanding at what you might call the first horizon. like how to, how to navigate getting through, you know, the next year, the next budget and the next election actually engaging with the sort of megat trends of social change is much more of a Steve thing. And sove Steve was the person who thought about like the big society, It's actually a stupid name, right? But how do you build non state capacity so that you don't have the downsides of a sclerotic bureaucracy, but you also don't have just the raciousness of capitality? And does he still believe that, Danny? think he's definly believes it to some extent. So his political idea was always more right wing than people appreciated it. He was always more right wing than on regulation and a whole load of other things. he His view I compared his view to there's an American thinker called James Q Wilson who had this idea about, you know kind of how you get spontaneous good behaviour. And Steve was always interested in that. My view is that He has you know a politically ruthless way associated himself with Donald Trump, who might sort of think he's a narcissist a liar and not somebody he should be associated with, but you know he's seeing the political angle and it has been incredibly successful. So he's very sharp. Oh political operator. Weirdly, he doesn't like being seen as a sort of political strategist and conss person, but he's very, very good at it. And David Cameron's big asset in this was he had a lot of self confidence and therefore he didn't mind having or three advisors who had different views and he would be well, like, I'll do that and I will not do that. Yeah So I disagree. I think that David Cameron's weakness in fact, was that he then didn't have a cohesive strategy because some days he would pick George and Sundays that was weakness, I agree. He's beenking on campaign trail, Steve Hilton about his depiction in the thick of it the character, Stuart Parson