Scottish By-Elections and Final Thoughts

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AXAXL facing into risk for a future to be imagined This advertement doesn't constitute an offer or solicitation, nor a description of any products or services of AXREXcel. everyone Ks The politics isn't working Everyone can feel country isn't where it should be Tonight could, just could be the turning point. From here on, I will give everything I have got to make it so to ensure the name Mak afield is forever synonymous. with bringing about the change this country needs Bringing back something we've lost hope for fut Andy Burnham winning the Makerfield by election and overcoming that first hurdle on his potential path to become prrime Minister and replace Kir Starmer. And that speech was as much to the people of the country as it was to the people of Makerfield who he'll now be representing in Parliament. We reacted to that by election victory and it was quite a stunning victory by Andy Burnham as well because he sort of exceeded people's expectations On a live episode of Newscast, which was on various BBC platforms at seven o'clock this morning and's got the usual morning after the by election before kind of chaos energy. But here it is for you to listen to as a podcast episode of newewscast. Newscast. Newscast from the BBC. Humanity's next great voyage begin We are in the midst of a rupture. Nostalgia will not bring back the old order. F seven Yeah It's supposed to be me as a doctor. Dry has also a special connotation.ul. Thinking about it like a pano helped. Do we play music now? what do we say Hello, it's Adam in the newewscast stududio. It's very early on Friday morning and we've got the result from the Makerfield Bile election. I say it's early, Mbe for Chris Mason. in Makerfield the constituency, it's late because he's been up all night. Hello Chris Yes, hello morning, Adam. I am on a picnic table outside a budget hotel chain just next to the M six in just outside Ashton and Makerfield. so in the Makerfield constituency which wakes up to a A new MP and a familiar figure for folk around here, Andy Burnham, the well now former Mayor of Greater Manchester. Addie Burndham returned as an MP. there will be a mayor by election and blindly before we get to that, who on earth knows what's going to happen at Westminster? Indeed. I'm just walking into the studio now and maybe you will hear him or see him crossing over the camera is Lke Trill from the polling Company M in Common. He's sitting down Photo frame's been knocked over by some weird polterge becausecause it wasn't by Luke And while he's getting himself settled down and ready to analyze the result, we're also joined by Kevin Fitzpatrick, friend of newscast, political reporter for BBC radio Manchester, morning slash evening slash day, Kevin Very well, thank, How are you Well, I've had a few too many coffees, I think. looking a bit intense as' c myself back in the future. And things are only going to get more intense. Kevin, do you want to give us the numbers first of all? Yeah, so in the end, it was quite a comfortable victory for Andy Bernam. we got more than twenty four thousand votes, nearly twenty five moreore than half of the the total vote and he ended up nine thousand votes ahead of reform, everybody else were behind them. So while it was a two horse race, as had been predicted throughout the contest, in the end, Andy Burnham was way ahead and it wasn't quite as close as many people had thought Look, you settled down now let's get some analysis. Yeah, I mean this is a better victory than many people had predicted for Andandy Barn and Makfield,n't it It' absolutely seismic victory. I think know Andy Berham has defied electral gravity here. And one of the data points that I'd use in comparison is just six weeks ago in the wards that make up Makerfield that voted in those local council elections, reform got over fifty percent of the vote, they swept every single Ward, Labour barely got a quarter of the vote and yet fast forward today and that's totally inverted. you had a twenty three point swing from reform to labour in just six weeks And Chris, people were saying, o, we'll have to look at Andy Burnham's margin of victory because if if the number of votes that restore got plus reform added together is potentially greater than what Andy Burnham achieved, then his whole argument about he can beat reform and restore labour's fortunes would be called into question That's a theory that is consigned to the dustbit now, isn't it? Because his margin of victory was so big Yeah, it can sit in that file, quite a burgeoning file for folk like me of hypothetical sophhology that in the end didn't quite come to pass or become as significant as it might have done. I think as a sidebar to this by election result, when you look at the results, Restore Britain coming third is interesting and broadly speaking, suggests that you polls that had been done in the constituency and polling in a constituency is Not easy because you're trying to get a sample size that is representative of a relatively small geographical area. thoseose polls did point to something of a support for Restore Britain and that played out in the result. But as you say, it wasn't a number that will be wildly sort of analzed in the coming hours because even if you add restore to reform They have still in total been miles behind labour. And I think this is why the numbers here do matter in the conversation that is already getting underway as we have this newscast recording at seven o'clock in the morning and will continue throughout the day and throughout the weekend whichich is that scale of victory. It was big. There's no doubt it was big. A couple of thoughts picking up from that. Thought number one is this. So the central argument being made by Andy Burnham here in the last four or five weeks was that fighting a seat like this would allow them to road test an argument that said that Andy Burnham as a labour figurehead was somebody who could beat Nigel Farraage and Reform. hereere Andy Burnham can say and no doubt will say at a victory rally in the coming hours that that's exactly what he can do because that is exactly what he has done There is though clearly a question as we get into the next stage of this Andy Burnham story, too what extent is that transferable beyond Greater Manchester? Because there's no doubt Andy Burnham is popular in Greater Manchester. He has a track record in this constituency and then across the city region in several elections where he's performed very well. To ext does that translate nationally and then What do we hear Prime Minister in the next couple of hours, he'll be in front of the cameras, I think this side of lunchime. What language does he pick in congratulating Andy Burnham? Is there any sense of a dilution of his defiance that we've heard I've heard directly in the two interviews I've done with K Stammer in the last week and he's articulated defiance to plenty of others. And then how do Labour M pes respond? How does the cabinet respond It's going to be fascinating few days Chris will pick up on lots of those threads throughout this episode of Newscast, which is being broadcast live on various platforms at the moment, but also could be listened to as a podcast later on on Friday. Kevin, I'm struck that a lot of the coverage of Andy Burnham at a national level on podcasts and news bulletins was when he was posed questions as a kind of proto prime minister What would you do about the fiscal rules? What would you do about the Waspy women? What would you do about oil and gas in the North Sea? But you were there in the streets talking to the voters, watching the campaign unfold as a classic by election. What was Andy Burnham's recipe for success Well, right from the start, he was adamant that this was a locally focused by election for him. He tried edging away, didn't he from questions about well why would it be better than Kir Stammer's prrime mininister and what are his plans for the country more generally? And he did tap into this idea that he kept ramming home and said in his acception speech as well that places like Makerfield had been neglected for too long, that the politicians hadn't listened and that he believes with his unique special combination of experience as an MP for sixteen years as the MP for leadee just up the road, and also his nearly ten years overseeing the curbation of Greater Manchester with its ten councils and its record growth, the fastest growing economy in the country, that he was uniquely placed to go back to Parliament and orchestrate the change that he felt people in Maker Field needed. So he's been really focused whenever he could on the people, the issues, the things that he thought were topical and mattered to people in the area. actuallyctually is across all the issues in the area, you know things like flooding, things like anti soldiial behaviour in one area in Ashton and Mak andfield Time Center. because as mayor, he has had some involvement with trying to sort those things out. but he also did quite easily drift didn't he into what he saw as the things that needed to change with the country I think a lot of what he talked about hasn't been drilled into specifics. and what will be interesting in coming days and weeks is what is he going to articulate about this idea that he says? And is the night before the election, Well, you know it's time to end forty years of trickle down economics These are big statements, aren't they? and I think while this campaign is focused locally as much as he could do, there are huge questions that he needs to answer if he does want to become Prime Mister. And Kevin, not to put you on the spot with a hyper local news story that you might not have covered personally, but I was really struck in an excellent article in the new statesman this week about how Makerfields kind of represents lots of places in Britain Will Lloyd, the journalist zoomed in on this one particular thing, which was the illegal fly tipping, the huge illegal waste dump, basically at the end of the street. What can you tell us about that? just as a sort of emblem for what was going on in that part of the world Yeah, that's a huge illegal tip, which the authorities have just watched build and build over a couple of years to the point where it was hundreds and hundreds of tons of illegally dumped waste. The residents kept complaining to the council, complaining to the environment agency, and they basically set up shop and watched and monitored as these lorries drove up and dumped all this waste and the pile just got bigger and bigger. So that is an example off one of the scenarios in this constituency where people were saying, listen, we've got a huge problem here You say you're on our side as politicians and despite the best efforts of the local councillors in some ways and the MP Josh Simons who has managed to get an intervention and the government to commit to clearing it The people who live in that direct area and on the end of that street have had two or three years of an absolute horrendous ordeal. simimilar situation with flooding down the road in a place called Platte Bridge, which was another topic. They got flooded five years ago, they got flooded two years ago. All the time, the government and the environment agency saying, o, we really are committed to fixing this for you They were clearly further down the list than they wanted to be in terms of funding being allocated. So yeah, some real local hyper local issues, but examples people in the area felt of how the politicians taught a good game but just didn't listen to them So interesting. And look, you were noding there because I imagine you've heard those stories from lots of people because you've been doing lots of focus groups in the constituency over the last couple of weeks where you get groups of people to gather and just kind of peer into their hearts and their brains. Has Andy Burnham won for one big reason or for lots of different reasons? it' interesting. I mean I think the central question of this by election was basically the same in week one as it was on election day because we were speaking to people throughout, which was Will Andy Burnham as MP and prrime Minister and lots of peopleew everyone knew what this election was about, like you know that Andy Burnham was going to run for Prime Minister. wouldould that ultimately benefit Makerfield or was Makerfield being used as a stepping stone for Andy Burnham's ambition? And we heard a bit of both, but I think what has happened in the Andies, that sense that Andy Burnham As an MP, as Prime Mister, he can deliver the sort of change that places like Makerfield need. The other thing that we heard repeatedly were words like relatability I couldn't quite believe the number of people that we spoke to in fooccus groups who said you know that they'd had a drink with him at a football match, that they had an Andy Burnham story and that he precisely was able to marry up both those big kind of national issues, you know, people want progress on things like the cost of living on the NHS with those very local iss So you know we heard a lot about vape shops in Ashton and people's frustration that they were sort of springing up everywhere. Exactly that, the flooding in Plattte Bridge. So he managed to walk that line where everyone knew what this contest was about, but still enough people were convinced that he cared about the local too And of course he had his track record as mayor in order to, you know give a bit of proof of concept to that. I was talking to one of his allies the other day there that said, one of the things that kept on happening on the campaign trail is that he would get distracted by going into someone's house and he'd be late for everything. And at one point he was late because he'd been in someone's house because they wanted him to try a batch of jam that theyd just cooked. And he was like, yeah, I'll try the jam. Now Chris, in terms of what Andy Bernhan was serving for breakfast for us this morning, we got his victory speech at there It wasn't a leisure center, was it Church and community center that the countount was at Yeah, it's called the Edge. It's on the edge of Wigan and also the edge of the river. I think it's the river Douglas that runs through Wigan. Curiously, you know you've rattled around for a while in journalism when you turn up at a by election Cn center and realize you've been to the building before. I did some filming a couple of years ago in a community supermarket that's based in the same building and as you say, it's a community centre It's also a church, it's hosted songs of praise. there's some sort of Pokemon cards exhibition going on Saturday. In other words, your classic kind of election count centre that's used for all sorts of things and then every so often. I mean typically every five years, but these days sometimes more frequently than that, election ballot papers are counted in the middle of the night and there we had Any Burnham giving that Victory speech at what about half past three this morning and all over there. The wheels are turning Oh there's a biker rallied in between the by election and the Pokemon convention. There we go. There it's a very polite duo of bikers because they actually sought out permission to turn the engine on. and I thought given how long newscasts go on, we could hardly ask them to wraite M out a siren as well. It's just a joy of like brocasting, isn't it? As a fire engine goes zooming by, Oh the second one as well. Chris is really Andy Burnham's victory speech. Yes. pars it for us. Exactly. Andy Burnham's victory speech So so implicitly, each paragraph was pointing to a wider canvas than Makerfield. and explicitly when you tied all the paragraphs together It was his in broad terms, his pitch to the Labour Party and his pitch to the Now he pointedly didn't go further than what he has been saying in the campaign, grounding everything in the Makerfield constituency, even picking up on the criticism that he's faced from Reform UK and from others that he would use Makerfield as a springboard to higher ambitions and the implication from his critics that he'd be on the first train to Westminster and never be seen again around here whereas he said that he would ground him in what he did next with the clear implication even though he didn't say it of what he would do as Prime Minister. Now we're going to hear from Andy Burnham at a victory rally in a couple of hours. I don't expect in that rally he will go further in his language or wildly further in his language than he has done todayod. I suspect he'll kick around in the constituency over the weekend before he heads to Westminster on Monday, what will be intriguing is what happens in between now and then I'm just thinking last time we spoke on newewscast, you were in the bus on the way back from the G seven summit and Robert Peston was sneezing every thirty seconds. So every time I've spoken to you this week there's been Iural intrusions. Look, in terms of Andy Burnham's victory speech, as I was listening to it, I was brushing my teeth before I came into the studiover I was at home, not brushing my teeth in the studio. I was struck by he constantly referred to place. So he's either referring to place as a concept, like geography or he was referring to Makerfield as a place that will guide him for whatever he does next. What's your take on the fact that kind of it sounds like geography is going to be back. And I'm speaking as somebody who's studied geography at university. at the same time as Chris studied geography at University. What do you think about this idea about that he's putting place front and center of his sort of philosophy It interesting isn't it? the sort central cross party diagnosis basically since the Brexit referendum is that there are too many places, too many communities in Britain that don't feel like they're part of the national story anymore that you know some people say oververlook left behind, others don't like that. but just this sense that actuallyually we've become too reliant and too focused on London, not focused enough on community. And I think you know, Andy Burnham's whole stick from what he's done in Manchester is he's proven that actually it doesn't need to be done. You can regenerate a place. and I think now, I think, you know He is basically trying to apply the make or field test to the country as a whole because you know as that new statesman piece, which was wonderful said, there are lots of makeake or fields around the country. And I think his pitch, you we don't think he's going to have great freedom if he becomes Prime Minister to make massive policy chang not because of the financial situation, but that focus on place, on devolution, on community pride, we know that that resonates and actually, if you're in a Labour party that's looking for a weapon against reform, being rooted in community might be it Although Chris, we've got lots of experience of a prrime minister recently who put an emphasis on place and it was Boris Johnson and he called it leveveling up and it sort of didn't happen and it didn't help him stay on as prrime minister. So we've kind of we've seen this theory play out before. We have. And that was a phrase, wasn't it? That's phraseology and indeed policy I think people noticed at least they noticed the intent whether or not people would have a different view as to whether it amounted to very much as a live question. But I think the difference as we indulge a bit of place based politics chat with two geography folk you and me, Adam. The difference I think, between the Boris Johnson policy and Andy Burnhams is that Andy Burnhams is rooted in a geography around his own experience, his own heritage and his own Cstituency, as it now is and therefore taps into a sense of Does a successful labour leader, particularly in an era like this one with an insurgent reform UK need to be grounded and elected from a community where reform are competitive and reform can win. In other words, not from a seat in London basically North London in the Prime Minister's case. know, does that ground labour in a place that is more resilient ' now got an articulated Lorry doing a three point turn behind us. they've come to collect their dirty linen. Do that ground labour in a more resilient political place if and when Andy Bernon becomes Prime Minister than it has been under Kararber? I suppose that's maybe the distinction from the placed based politics of Boris Johnson, but he was keenly aware of it himself, wasn't he? and arguably maybe alongside plenty of other things Jeremy Corbn, Brexit, et cetera, etcetera. It was a contributor in winning over some of those towns in the English Midlands and north of England that voted consonservative for the first time ever in plenty of cases in twenty nineteen, rejecting labour The other thing Luke about placelace not to fixate on this concept, but I was struck that Andy Brham said in his speech I will put place before party Which is a very conscious echo of Kir Starmer saying I'll put country before party. And I just wonder how much that is going to be different if he takes over as prime Minister. I mean, I think the one thing that Andy Burnham does have is he genuinely does have in Greater Manchester a track record of working across party, you know, actually across Greater Manchester two thirds of the vote last time he ran. know he won over people that vote for other parties. And certainly in the focus groups that we ran in the run up to this election, it was clear actually in an echo of Boris Johnson and the Red Wall that there were voters of other parties who were lending their vote to Andy Burnham to give him a shot of bringing that change in Westminster. So we spoke to someone who said, you know I always vote Tory. but he actually said, but look, I know I can't get the Labour Party out for three years, but I can get Ke Stama out in two weeks if I vote for Andy Burnham. Other people who are greens, liberal Democrats saying we want to give him a shot to do that. So I genuinely think he does some legitimacy when he talks about this idea of working kind of across the spectrum in a way that you know the thing with Kia Starmer is he's never managed to reach out beyond labour partisans. Aside from liiberal Democrats actually, weirdly liberal Democrats often give Kiar Starmer a higher approval rating than labour voters, which is a little quirk. But beyond that, I think he's struggled with that Kevin, I talking about places and talking about potential future elections. There is now for definite, we know going to be one in Greater Manchester for a new mayor. So irrespective of whether there's a labor leadership contest, that contest is definitely going to happen and it happens quite soon Yeah, it's been triggered already because the legalities are that you can't be a mayor where you're also a police and crime commissioner like we have here in Greater Manchester and become an MP. And as soon as his name was read out as the victor in that contest earlier this morning, well, he had to effectively stand down as mayor. So that by election has now been triggered We've already had an email from the Greens saying that they're going to be anouning their candidate early next week, so straight from one by election, very excited about another, the Greens. But yeah, that would be a huge by election, huge cost to the taxpay and that was one of the criticisms of Andy Burnham when he went for for this role and it's not clear, really isn't clear who would step into the hall because he's been such a big figure Right, Chris, let's talk about Kir Starmer talking about big figures or potentially former big figures as some people are saying this morning. Let's look at the tweet he posted a little while ago. Congratulations Andy Burnham, Labour's new MP for Makerfield. Voters chose Labour's campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate. so not exactly a sort of ringing endorsement of his new colleague at Westminster No, I think that is what you might describe as a sort of boilerplate public note of Congratulation. As you say he talked about Labour's campaign. Andy Berham was at pains to be very personal in his branding in terms of vote Andy for U was one of the slogans, wasn't it doinguring the rounds on the various boards here in the constituency. And you know let's be frank, he was running a campaign against the incumbent Labour government's record. And you hear it in some of the reaction this morning from Richard Tice, for instance, the deputy leader of Reform, saying just that as he congratulated Andy Burnham on winning what he described as a very safe labour seat, which I mean, certainly in terms of its electoral history in sending MPs to Westminster is true evenven if Reform's recent local election performance had suggested in this contest it was It was far from safe As far as the Prime Minister is concerned We are going to see him in front of the cameras in the next couple of hours. He will face face journalists questions. I think it might be what's known as a cool clip where one journalist asks on behalf of all of the broadcasters half a dozen if that, two or three questions. So yeah, what kind of language does he choose to adopt? Is there any watering down on his position? I know I said this a few minutes ago, but I think it's going to be key Is there any watering down on that defiance? Last night my phone was ringing this was whilst the puse was still open, but last night my phone was ringing with unsolicited offers of perspective from those who are clearly keen to sort of prop Ke Stara up pointing to The fact that he won a big majority two years ago, the various indicators that they think are now pointing in the right direction, whether it be on net migration or the economy or inflation, for instance, or indeed his handling of the international picture. They're still having a crack at being defiance, but is there any flash of acknowledgement that the scale of this victory changes things? And then over and above that, you what do Labour MPs do, particularly those who have not gone public so far with criticism of Kistara or public demand that he ought to go What about cabinet figures? are there conversations over this weekend where there is an attempt to persuade the Prime Minister that he ought to St down Or does that not happen? and he remains defiant and then one of the candidates, Andy Burnham was streeting you know, anybody else who can muster the numbers is somebody willing to go over the top and say I've got the eighty one MPs to back me, which is what a candidate would need and therefore trigger a contest. And then at that point, Kstmer would have another decision, which is that once that scenario is live Does he actually go ahead with the things he's been saying for months he would do and say he himself would stand? And Chris, the vibes you seem to get from the Burnham campaign. and of course there are lots of people that speak for Andy Burnham because they like him rather than because they're sat in his kind of kitchen cabinet with him. seems to be that over the weekend, Kir Starmer realizes the writing is on the wall, sets out a timetable There isn't even a contest at all and it's just sort of by some kind of magic, Andy Bernan becomes Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party. that what their dream scenario is Or do they not even indulge in scenario planning? I mean there s there's all sorts of scenarios that fly around and that some people indulge in. and it's fair to say a bit like at various points in the Brexit referendum, or indeed if you ask anyone right now who might win the World Cup, you can make a plausible and intelligent and well argued case for a particular outcome, but it doesn't necessarily have any greater degree of likelihood than the next scenario that you can also make a plausible and intelligent and reasonable case But yes, there are those who say Perhaps the slash hope because that's the other thing. Some people might say something as much because they hope it to happen rather than because they think it will happen. Those two things are in politics not always. in fact, often for some rarely the same the same thing. But there are those who entertain exactly that scenario that the Prime Minister realizes the scale of the writing on the wall and is persuaded that perhaps he ought to for his own sake as some have articulated it to me and for the sake of the party to say that he will stand down and that Andy Burnham proves that he has the numbers and everyone else thinks Kii is the most popular person we've got right now and I wouldn't fancy taking him on in an internal election within the Labour Party. And he becomes the prime Minister very quickly. Equally, it's possible that you know you end up in a situation where there's a contest either with or without Kiia Stara as a participant within it. Now a week ago, Adam, when I sat down with the Prime Minister, I put to him exactly this scenario which was a scenario where I'm He has to decide whether to stand in a contest where his decision to stand determines whether or not there is a contest at all because of the prospect that others might decide that maybe they can negotiate a decent job in the cabinet or whatever and they don't go through with the riigmle of the contest that they think they're going to lose and which subjects the country to a sort of protracted internal battle within the Labour Party whilst that party is actually trying to govern the country. Now perhaps unsurprisingly that the Prime Minister didn't really want to get into that publicly. I can sort of understand that in terms of his potential to weaken his own position further by doing so. But that scenario would be a fascinating one because Kir Starmer is constantly railed against what he sees as chaos in politics constantly railed against all of those leadership moments the Cervatives went through. and in a scenario where he was contributor to what he describes as chaos, would he be willing to actually do it? particularly if he was thinking nobody else will do it and therefore he would be the trigger for that? contest, even if it was triggered, caused originally, by someone else. Right, Chris, I'm going to let you go. Lots of reporting still to do from Makerfield, although I get the sense you're be coming back to Westminster for the shenanigans with the cabinet at the Labour Party, which means you will miss the Pokemon convention in Wigin. The opportunity cost. Yes. And Kevin, thank you so much for updating us from the campaign through throughout this campaign because we werere doing episodes of bio election cast that you were a big part of. and thanks for being here with us this morning My pleasure And look, you're staying for a couple of minutes because the next piece of homework for you analyzing the two by elections that happened in Scotland. So there was Aberdeen South, which was taken by the Cervatives from the SMP with a huge swing of the vote. S their vote share was up twenty five percent, which is kind of mind blowing actually in British politics, and then our both and Broperty Ferry were the SMP Held on And those were by elections triggered because the sitting SNP MPs had become members of the Scottish Parliament. What's your take on those? Well I think Aberdeen South is really interesting. I mean that was an election which was when we ran fooccus groups in Aberdeen South we was were there as well as Makerfield, the one thing people wanted to talk about was oil and gas. It was issue number one, two, and three. The Cervatives ran out In other words drilling for more so that you can protect jobs Eactly. You know Aberdeen, you know, the energy industry is a huge part of Aberdeen's economy. real worries about what the transition might mean for them. The Cervatives leent into it Interestingly, the other thing which came up in the fooccus group was that people noticed Kemy Badenock's visit. In fact Kemy Baden went up three times to Abberdeen South. That's really unusual H having been banging the drum for new oil and gas for weeks and weeks and weeks nationally. Exactly. and it's quite unusual for an opposition lead to do because kind of exposes you there And there was some, you know that uptick we've seen in Kemy Baidenoock's personal approvals, even though the Tory vote share has remained very flat. That was coming through in the groups though. So I think it was a bit of a combination. And I think the thing about Aberdeen South, which is really interesting, is that I think it compounds a bad night for reform Because what you have is three things. you have Reform making basically no progress in what should have been in any other circumstance an easy win in Makerfield. You've got restore getting seven percent of the vote. So they know it wasn't enough to make up the difference, but it still means they've got a real challenger on their right. And if that happens in lots of other places, then they don't win then you know, I mean, even if they get three percent, we think it costs them around seventy seats potentially as a snapshot But then thirdly, in Aberdeen South, you've got the conservatives proving that they still have a pulse and that the battle for the right might not be over. So if you take all of those three things together, But that isn't great news for a four The other by election, I think was interesting in the sense that actually, if you look at our Bth and Broti Ferry, at the last general election, very close, Labour almost edged the SMP What we see instead is the Labour vote totally collapses, the SMP vote actually increases The big story there is just how low the turnout.' the lowest turnout of the three contests. And it was another example of that in those SMP labour seats where people say, well, I don't like the government at Westminster very much. I don't really like the government at Hollyroood that much. It's all just a bit as I think I said before on newscast People just sat on their hands. Is that an official polling terminology? M? I think it' amazing It is now Yeah by saying it on by election cast,'ve made it one it's ended the Lexicon. And I'll just give you a last big thought about what might be about to happen in the Labour Party. And I just think When you look at public opinion and how people feel to people buy the Kir Starmer argument that getting rid of him would be chaos even though he's unpopular? orr do people buy the Andy Burnham argument about well actually labor needs to change and this is kind of the last chance. and so something drastic needs to be done. Where are people But look the is people really liked it when Kistara made that promise of a politics that treads more lightly that they could go back to watching politics out of the side of their eyes. So instinctively they would believe the Kiaara argument except They don't believe he's delivered it. Talking to people in Makerfield, the one thing which tended we met some Starmmer fans, but very few. The one thing that tended to unite Kenyan voters, Burner voters was a sense that the Prime Minister's time was coming to an end. And I asked almost every group, didn't there's anything the Prime Minister could do to turn it around? And even people who were sympathetic to him said, We just don't think there is and there were enough people who were backing Burnham because they thought he would lead to that change. And then just a final thought about, I mean, kind of politics and leadership in general. And I'm thinking back to the old old days when you were a special advisor to a government minister. How does it feel in the corridors of power when it sounds like power might be about to go to somebody else? and not because of an election, but because of politics and ambition all the stuff that's unfolding now If you just feel the air suck out of the place, and you the transition which I was there for was actually after the Brexit referendum. And I remember the somethingmming in government, which I know you've talked about a newscast before called the Grid, which controls all of the announcements. and I remember a couple of days after Brexit ringing up number ten saying, Oh can we get this on the grid slot? And I'm just going, Look, there's no grid. you know' surprisedbody answer the phone. Yeah., exactly. So it is a total change and a total shift and you know, the civil service, the spepecial advisors number ten. when the move happens, the move happens. I also just wonder how long it takes to become ready to be prrime Minister. Can you do it with kind of a bit of a gist about what you want to achieve or actually do you have to have a quite worked out plan? Because we've realised from Starmer, if you go in without a plan, it can get sticky quite quickly. Yeah. And he had two years well, you know, at least two years with he knew he was likely to become prrime Mister. That said, you know, and go back to what I say Is it likely there will be major policy differences between Berham and some? I think there might be changes of emphasis and particularly on things like place and devolution. because there's already pride big pride in place J just because Kirosama launched it and the day he launched it was the day Mand some Mandelon files came out. I mean, that policy still exists. That is ex. I'm not sure the change with the big. I think the difference you get with Andy Burner becomes Pimeinister, He may not, it may still be Kam, it may be any of the other contents, But if it's him, I think the biggest advantage he gives Labvery is a chance at a rehearing chance a reset where some of those actually quite popular policies, workers' rights, hugely popular. Rnter's rights, hugely popular across the political spectrum, the minimum wage, the stuff they've done on sewage, the social media ban, actually can a new leader, cancel now Andy Benham, who passes the relatability test get enough people to give a look at that stuff and say, actually the government's doing some good stuff. And we're getting really, really far ahead of ourselves and this is a massive hypothetical. But if Prime Minister Andy Burnham did at a general election what he did last night in Makerfield, I mean, that would be one of the most consequential election results we've ever had Oh yeah, absolutely. and you know he turning something around. You're completely turning something around. you know it is somewhat ironic, isn't it that you know myself included. And I still stand by I have been talking about the death of two party politics now for quite a while. and yet the headline results from last night are a conservative gain and a labor hold admittedly against different opponents. but if he could turn it around, it would be seismic. The only caution I would give is twenty seventeen go to Theresa M. She's hugely popular. People are calling her the second Thatcher. You get into an election campaign and everything changes. Now time the six week period. is I'm just not sure that when you've got a three figure majority, you really risk it on and three think of majority and three years. do you really risk it Well, interesting Lu, thank you so much