Reflecting on Leadership and Legacy

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And this weekend there is something of Tumbleweed going across Westminster and also tumbleweed going across the metaphorical Westminster Has a new senior labor figure and cabinet seecretary of state told him to push off So As I understand it Et Cooper, the foreign Secretary is also now one of those who has said to Kure Starmer pererhaps you might want to think that this is not realistic for you to stay and fate. We know Heidi Alexander had done that already I' toldld that many other ministers have also now done that I think that the number of people in Starmer's administration still saying to him, Stand and fight dwindled Very quickly o back twenty four hours, Friday afternoon Journalists like me are still at getting briefings from Kir Starmer's allies That he would stand and fight Andy Burnnham, who of course, has just won the by election, that he thought he could beat him in any leadership contest. In fact, I was even told when Kir Starmer had decided that he would take on Andy Burnnham, was a fortnight ago when he saw Andy Burnnham on that bigig Question Time special, and he thought he didn't do it very well. He watched Andy Burnnham then do an interview with Victoria on Newsnight where he failed to explain the fiscal rules, the rules on spending and borrowing And then that Saturday, Kirstarmer phoned up his allies and said, I can beat him. I will stand and fight To me and the conversations that I've been having in the last twenty four hours, that mood of defiance is shifting I think by Monday morning we might feel thingsings have been very fast So let's get underway with Saturday's newscast. Newscast. Newscast from the BBC. Humanity's next great voyage begins. We are in the midst of a rupture. Nostalgia will not bring back the old order. sixty seven. Yeah, It's supposed to be me as a doctor. Dy has also a special connotation.. Thinking about it like a panto helped Do we play music now, what do we day Hello it'satie in the studio and it's Lasudio. And it's chaos in number ten again. the chaos that Labour explicitly promised not to give me as a voter. They weren't going to do personality politics. they weren't going to do prrime mininisterial churn. They said it in Downing Street. They weren't going to do this. They said it again and again and again And I'm going to do that thing today that I sometimes do it's annoying, but I'm going to redo some of the things that people have told me because I want to explain to newscasters what's been going on behind closed doors in these conversations that people will have without revealing their identities because it means that they can tellell the truth privately, we can report on that then to picture to give people a picture of what is really going on, a time when nobody wants to come out explicitly. It've been on Kar Starmer's side But there are people who are increasingly feeling that he is going to have to go This is to your point One labour advisor has worked for the party for a long Tim just said to me simply We promised people we weren't going to do this And that is a big problem and it might be the last promise that Kstammer breaks. We knew that there was a chance Andy Berham would win. He won bigger than it was predicted. It was a bigger turnout than the general election byia some way. it's full beam message from the voters of Makerfield Full be message from the voters of Makerfield, we want Andy Barnham will be message then from Andy Burnham's supporters to the party, he can beat reform He is the special anointed one. He should come and do this for the party in the country not just here in Maker Fields that on Thursday morning or the early hours of Friday morning, was clear as day that that was his message. I mean, he didn't do a normal acceptance speech for a backbench MP. He basically said, Kir Stammer, I am coming for your job. And they are so kind of full of excitement and froth and Somebody on the A of their team said to me yesterday, you know, they are high on their own supply. You can see the pictures of Burnham's team are amazing all the sort of cheering, clapping, all the rest. You know they are absolutely believing, hoping they are on their way But they That of support if you like behind Starmer is really the critical thing because it's not up to D Brham to decide if and when here summer goes. It's not up to Andy Burnham to decide if he gets away with getting to number ten without having a leadership contest. It's not up to Andy Burnham to decide evenven if Starmer has concluded that he will resign. Disy do it straight awayay? in which case Andy Bernam you were up, and you better have some ideas and some plans? You better learn the fiscal rules. Correct Or if Andy Burnham's desire is, that Kstarmer says, okay, we'll have a transition and you can move in in September But that's not in Andy Bernner's gift. Is it up to him It's up to K Stemer. There's an unresolved debate in the party as well about whether there should be a contest Lord Faulkner, former minister and the you know big figure in the Labour Party said this morning, It shouldn't be a contest. They should just get on with it. They should do it in mid July, just like hand over the keys just like that. Men in a room deciding who runs Britain. Men in a room deciding who runs Britain just for change U that's a new podcast. We've just started. Don't start Mbe're haveving in terrible trouble? In the current go rounds. T There are no women in the room Because there was there was talk, Howaret Harmon floated the idea that if they did have a contest, a woman might be allowed to because a woman allowed never actually allowed. Yes, a woman might be allowedould you let somebody do it? That would be nice. L loveves being ironic I wish I hadn't scratched this one David Blunet told me they can do this two ways, the shambles way or the organized way. So it's possible this weekend people are trying not to be the chaos maker, the rain maker because if I come out as a Burnham supporter and I'm in the cabinet, then I've created the chaos. it's on me That said There's a different argument about having a contest is that it is vitally important to put Andy Brurnam through his paces Because people don't know what he would actually want to do in government And if there isn't a kind of contest of ideas in the Labour Party then It's six months time If Labor doesn't improve its fortes in the polls if any Bernam is in charge, and people go, well, we didn't, we never knew what he was going to do. It was never tested. And you might find somebody in Starmer's camp was rather grimly joking to me yesterday. You might find that the same people who are currently proclaiming loudly that Bernam must be installed immediately and it's all over for Gar Starmer might in six months' time be complaining loudly Well, of course, Andy Barnet was never tested and if only we had had a chance to put him through his paces. Soone of this none of this is straightforward. There are no good choices here The public might recoil from our contest because Every single political contest I've ever covered. att the beginning, the politicians say, Ah, we'll be very civil. We'll do this in a gentlemanly manner. We'll have a discussion about ideas and debates and all the rest. and we won't tear lumps out of each other What happens when they actually get into the trenches to try to win a political war Be they start tearing lumps out of each other. That is politics, I'm afraid. It might not be pretty, you might not like it, but that's how it's done What I wanted to go back to though is your dreadful assertion that women have never got anything to do with politics. There's a very, very important woman this weekend Victoriaious Starma So The Prime Minister is with his wife at Checkers This weekend and People who know him well have said to me He just he's just desperate to talk to her about it. to make his plan to absorb, I think the enormity of what is happening And that is what he is doing this weekend. Andy Burnham is also somewhere in a secret location away with his family. So I've been kind of entertaining myself with the idea that you've got basically these two metalched bloes, both on minib bricks with their families. while the fate of the country being decided and It's just an extraordinary place that we've got ourselves to actually as a nation. I mean, it's extraordinary. It's not just extraordinary because Labour promised they wouldn't do it But if you'd said to anyone, like ten years ago, oh yeah Britain will have seven prime ministers in a decade, you'd have thought they were off their head. I mean, it's a completely I hate the word unprecedented, but I was about to say it This is just and a massive twist in what has become our post has just become this sort of never ending drama. Although I think it's important to say though too You know, when labor politicians castigated the Tories time and time and time again for changing leaders There's nothing wrong with it changing the leader If the next leader then does well. whichich happened? It did. The Tor' got rid of Teresa M Bor Johnson won a massive majority. ninety seats. and eighty seats. eighty seats. Sorry. eighty seats. eighty seats. And that showed that he had the M.re That showed that he had a mandate that showed that his get Brexit done thing would change history in what we call the reed wall, but you hate all the wall analogies, but in seats that had never gone toory. Correct So that was the public speaking. So the argument really comes down to Has seventy seven thousand people in Makerfield, of whom fifty five percent of whom voted for one man? Is that the same as the public speaking? And the Prime Minister is in the position of arguing on Friday that it's not the same as the public speaking. And on Friday, people were saying to me things like Well, it' we' it's fantastic and actually so I said at number ten, It's fantastic that he got twenty one and a half thousand votes. Really? But K Kosara has a mandate of many million voters Which is true, which is true, which is absolutely true. T years ago. And one thing that labor MPs, some labor MPs are desperately worried about is get if he gets in and he ends up in number ten Before too long, opposition parties can start calling for a general election. But on day one. Well, maybe on day one, although Reform But might do that because's they like those big, bold primary colors kind of campaigning, but they're not ready for a general election Conservatives don't want a general election now because They're not ready for a general election either and they believe that Kemby Bayenock is s of on a bit of an upswing. But they wouldn't want a general election now when they're still miles behind. But look we'll see, I mean, labour MPs would not want there to be a general election. Well because nearly seventy percent of the public did not vote labour. cororrect. The big massive majority of seven thousand MPs was gained on thirty in change. thirty percent in change That right. I mean, it was that coalition that was stretched so far because they just wanted to be sure that they won. So they did this sort of quite they traveled light, didn't have much in the manifesto, ruled out all sorts of things because they wanted to get literally as many bombs on seats as possible in Parliament retrospective debates about whether they should have accepted that they'd have had a smaller majority, but had a much more compelling program and had the balls to say put up some taxes or something like that. But you know there's no point in having that debate now. That is all in the rear view mirror But he's still extraordinary to me The notion that somebody can have a huge majority in twenty twenty four and less than two years later be on the verge of getting their P forty five. I mean, it's just an extraordinary thing. I should say that look, none of this is certain. I should say that I was going to ask have we exhausted your Whatspp messages No I mean I' at just beginning. But I know we have other things. Well, no, no, I think just because I had not heard that Ette Cooper, have not heard a journalist of your standing say Evette Cooper has said goo. Evette Cooper has said I don't know the exact word. No but you've said that that She has indicated. She is another person who has indicated to the prrime minister that in her view See. should set out a departure. And I just just to add to that, I think you have to kind of understand a bit also about how these conversations take place. So sometimes these are sort of reported in a way, like somebody marched in, they banged the desk and they said you have to leave You know, these are all part people who've worked together for years kindind of not really the way it plays out. I think the conversations are more like Are you really sure that you would want to fight this orr the way another one is explained to me is like, look basically Krist Starmer is sort of leading the conversation and a kind of well, what do you think is realistic? What should I do? What would you do? you know, that kind of thing I' But I think here is the driving thing. K Starmer believed that he could be Andy Burnnham It seems to me until really quite recently I'm Most people in the L Party think that's nuts. We don't know it because there might never ever be a contest. There could have been a contest We in the parallel world, who knows? Most people in the Labour Parties think that it's nuts, as one government source said to me And therefore what you've seen is previously loyal ministers who have been worried in the words of one cabinet source about him humiliating himself And that's the way it was expressed to me by one cabinet source is, Look, we wouldn't want the Prime Minister to humiliate himself by running in a contest and being beaten and potentially being beaten very badly. Now look, some people in the Starmer team say, actually most of the members think you should stay. know they quote different bits of polling at you. They'll say, Oh, we're only six points behind in the polls and But the consensus view in the Labour Party is that Stmer would not be ani Bernam and therefore what we've seen in the last since Thursday night and I think that sped up in the second half of yesterday people essentially saying Don't put yourself through it. Because that's very important for precedent reason. Newscastters wondering how have we got here. Margaret Thatcher called in the members of her cabinet and asked what they thought. Yes. And on balance, they said, it's over. Yes. And we now know that Boris Johnson wanted to stay. Yes. So what happened? he didn't really ask them. They just started resigning And what David Blunkett said to me was that that's the shambles that he wants the party to avoid.. So once you start getting to resignations, he has to go. anyyway, because under our system, the Prime Minister has to command the confidence of the House of Commons. and if he can't make a government, he wouldn't win the confidence of the House of Commons. So that's the sort of awful nightmare facing them all. That's right actually decides that he will fight it, which is still possible. Nhing is certain, although I'm explaining you the way the mood seems to me to have moved between Friday and Saturday afternoon. if you were to decide to try and fight What I expect would happen then is you would get Andy Burnham's supporters either publishing or going in with a list of well over a hundred MPs who would back them. I think in that situation, you might then see resignations start to begin So that publicly, the government starts to kind of fall apart in front of our eyes I think people people want to avoid that. I they don't want to have that kind of the Jenga tower just falling down. far better to see something kind of orderly But you know, in politics, what know there's nothing orderly about prrime Mister Laving. I first, however you look at it, you might be able to avoid a sort of car crash where you have a couple of days of really embarrassing things with people coming out and saying ever more terrible things about Kir Starmer pars inal mean and nasty way change of Prime Minister is such a huge thing. What does that say to our allies around the world? that we look less stable than we pretend to be or claim to be What does it say to the financial markets. They don't know who the next chancellor might be The country's got a lot of debt. What effect does that have on the price of borrowing? L it or not This country owes a lot for a lot of money to the financial markets. that has to be paid back. and that's a big cost to taxpayers and a big cost to the country What does it say? also to people in various different know, whether you're in the health service or whether you're in defense or whether you're working in the Department for Work and pensions you have a kind of breach a break in the progress of decision making. You know E every week the governments meant to be making thousands and thousands of decisions. If you change the person at the top, They might come in they with a whole of new ministers. Everything stops for a while. You know, we know in this country already, people look at government and think, Oh my god it doesn't work So I've been speaking to an Italian colonist because Georggeia Maloneoney has been in office longer than Thesa May, Liz Trus, Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson, she's done three years two hundred and forty odd days, and we used to laugh at the Italians for changing their Pime Minister And this is Beppi Svini telling me how he thinks we've caught it He's widely recognized as one of the greatest footballers in history. He's won the prestigious Ballondor Award five times. He's the all time leading goal scorer in professional football. and according to the Bloomberg Billionaires index, he's the first active footballer in history to achieve billionaire status. Guess who we're talking about, yet? That's right, good bad billionaire is exploring the life and fortune of icon Christiano Ronaldo. That's good bad billionaire from the BBC World Service. Listen now wherever you get your BBC podcasts Italian habit You' becoming Italian and we're becoming British. We're well known over the world to be excitable, to change things, to change our mind, to change our prime ministers. and now you do that. So basically you went the Italian way, we went the British way. so welcome Is it a habit or is it emotion I lived in Britain in the eighties and in the nineties and I've been coming sort back and forth. and I notice how progressively you become more emotional. It looks for me, you know, you're playing the World Cup. It's the same thing. You win a game and the national mood is so excited that you think you're almost going to win the World Cup again after sixty years, right It doesn't work like that. Take your time, relax. cool and wait because you know, you can pick someone from the bench, I think is what's happening now. The Labour Party is thinking maybe you know Star is not Hurricane. we should come up with something better and try to score. As a friend of Britain, I hope you do score. and by the way, I hope you win the Wor Cup. I love that. I don't think we've got an answer either as to whether or not this is going to be the way it continues. No because if you go to the next general election, what do you say to the public about Seven prrime mininisters in ten years. Do you say that's good? I'm hello Will you vote for me because I think we should have a new Prime Minister every year For the next five or do you say guys guys, I think we've got to understand something really big happened, probably Brexit. we could probably argue it was post Brexit ripples. We did a very big thing. the system had to adjust, so vote for me because I'm going to help the system adjust.. But voters are volatile now, you see. So this is a two way street, isn't it? Voters are willing to move, much more willing to move around And so we' prime Ministers. whichich was first, who knows, but it's a mirror. You know, this is also happening because voters don't vote in the ways where they used to where they reliably. Political parties used to think, o, there are voters in the Northwest of England, said the Labour Party. O there are voters in the southeast of England felt the Conservatives. And I think something that's not been discussed that much yet Andy Barnam is to a lot of people. They know who he is, right? He's famous. He's well known. He has personal popularity, which most politicians don't, right However Hase whole stick about putting the North of England and the people of Makerfield at the heart of every decision that he makes. And he talks about Makerfield as a kind of proxy for all the towns and villages around the country that have been left behind. It's the kind of stick that he goes with There are going to be a lot voters who don't like that There're going be voters potentially particularly in the south of England, maybe in other parts of the country you think, well, hang on a minute. Why is the Northest more important than everybody else? Why is my life being seen through the prism, communities in the northwest of England with whom I've not very much in common. So there is there's risk all around I think the fundamental thing to say to newscastters this week is The Labour Party has now dececisively concluded the risks around replacing Kirstarmer are smaller. done the risk of allowing him to stay And that's where we've got to And that means In all likelihood There is going to be another prime Minister timetable of the next few days would mean that the language is going to have to start changing from people around Kist Aarma. if we're going to sort of rooll the pitch. Yeah, a phrase we don't often use and I'm the one who's now used it. If we're going to prepare people for the fact that the Prime Minister iss changing his thinking What kind of person says what when? Because if I go around the cabinet, I'm told that Ed Milliband and Shabana Mahmouud have already advised him to go. Oh, they did some time ago. Right. So who is there in the cabinet who comes onto a microphone and says, what words that will be a clue So Peter Kyle, the businessiness secretary, is join us on TV tomorrow morning That I don't know what he's going to say I mean, it might be quite surreal, right? And I don't know yet what politicians are popping up in studios tomorrow. How are they going to handle this and But I tell you, I will be listening very, very, very, very carefully. And I do believe that there will be a change in their language, which we can pour over tomorrow from what the Prime Minister was saying on Friday, whichich is I'm going to write. Which is I'm going to fight. And of course, if there's a contest, there is no contest. There is no contest If there's a contest, I will run, but there is no contest. I mean it's like, you there's a giant sort of big bird standing behind you with a big sign saying. Contest, Cest, got it. there is no contest. Let me tell I mean, you couldn't say anything else, right? Of course, the Prime ministers sar Memorial have to sometimes say things that make them sound either like they are completely delusional or that they are you know, not cognizant of some quite basic facts. But yeah, technically there is still not a contest. Except a man called Andy Burnham stood on stage and said, too the nation, I am coming for your job. Also, he has said I will join a contest. So he is on the record joining a contest. He has, but he wouldn't trigger it. So that's the thing. But look, I would say this again, look, nothing is certain. And of course, I'm going to look like a prize plum next week if actually Christammer com out and says, I I'm going to fight or Andy Berham says It says, o actually I don't want the job after all. Look, other things could still happen. but my impression as we're talking at two thirty on Saturday is that events really might move quite quickly towards some form of transition reallyally in the next coming days. So I am foolishly putting my neck on the line if we're wrong ' be delighted to say next week, of course, we were wrong with transparecy. You put your neck on the line and sometimes it gets chopped off. but you that is my impression of based on my conversations with different sources. in the last, you know, forty eight hours and probably in the last twenty years, you know, these are all are kind of they're That's where that's where I think we are heading. And I think In common with other newscastters, I want to know where you think we're head. Also, I' very interested in the fact that Lady Victoria and Sakir are gathered together at cheers at checkers. So you've got the sense of the history there, you've got the sense of the moment, the personal meets the public and that And David Blunket said to me, it's a decision he has to take Lady Victoria. Yes. And even mentioning Victoria's name in public is a push towards the exit door, really, isn't it? Be It is because I think in the end politics is a rough business. But these are also they're human beings, you know, politicians and Id admire people who go into politics because they give up an awful lot. Yes, they if you get to the top, you get huge power. You have huge privilege, you have huge influence and all those things that you might have craved if you are, you know, cravingly ambitious from a young age and wanted to be the Prime Minister or the king of the world, as Boris Johnson wanted to be when he was a kid But they also sacrifice an awful lot. They sacrifice privacy, they sacrifice anything like a good night's sleep They work demonic hours. They're under huge pressure all the time. They're under intense scrutiny. They're pillored by their colleagues all the time. They get a hard time from journalists friends their friends, their friends. All out with their friends. theirir friends turn on them U and it is a tough old game and that's why often you find in the end. It ends up being the conversations with their Pners that are the ones that need to be had at the end, but it's lonely at the top I mean, I've seen them come and go and come and go and the removal vans arrive. It is lonely and tough. and I don't feel, you know, I I'm not saying newscastters should feel sorry for politicians But they're human beings You know, and imagine any of us, if you had a job that you had worked so hard for for years and years and years and you get there I knowally And then it's really, really difficult. And then one by one, your colleagues, your workmates come out and say, actually you're a bit rubbish. I don't think you're very good Well, I don't think you're very good. Oh, I don't think you're very good. And a longer and longer list of people comes along and say, I think you're really bad. you're going have to go. And then in the end, even some of your most loyal colleagues say think it's time I think most of us would just want to hide under the Duve, right? with a giant bag of crisps And he has to tell the country what he's going to do to do it all in front of the cameras I think it is very important perspective. I think we do all of us have argued for decency. And also there's another chilling part listening to what you're saying, which is Andy Burnham Be careful what you w for. Yeah At this time, there's no money There's no unity in the Labour partarty and you want the top job, apparently. Right. And look, I think if he does G in she obviously wants and is highly likely I was talking to somebody senior position in politics this morning and They were sort of suggesting it would be a massive thought experiment on the country So K' Stomar never promised to be fun and happy and make people feel good and go and like be pictured, like hugging grannies and drinking pints and being with the people But he did tell people he would be competent and capable and he would get things done And that hasn't come to pass at all in the way that he hoped. Addy Berno, however, we know he's good at the first bit People know him by his first name. He's very personal, He's very affable. People like getting their selfies. he's got a great kind of charisma about him. and that's a talent for a politician And he's a very instinctive politician We got no idea if he's going to have the second bill being capable, competent, all the rest. If you speak to people who worked with him in government when he was culture seecretary, health secretary, chief secretary to the Treasury back under the governments, of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown He has pretty mixed reviews, I've got to say We know he's got more experience now having been the mayor of Greater Manchester But what another source said to me yesterday is, look He's going to have to translate that instinct for being a very natural politician and making people feel good, and I'm paraphrasing very quickly having a serious disciplined team that's actually ready things done and to make the government competent. But there's a sort of thought experiment, if you like, just to refer back to the conversation that I was having with someone this morning, is If things are really difficult and the government doesn't really do a very effective job and things continue to go wrong, but you have a leader who can make people feel more cheerful, Does that change things? Is that better Maybe it is On the other hand, maybe the bomber jacket and the gazelles after five minutes when things are just as hard and the government's just as ineffective Actually Any of that sizzle and excitement you saw at the Ashton foootball Club yesterday That's going to fly away Welcome to this weekend. That's the decision. That's the energy in the party isn't it? Those are the crossroads that it's fcusing. And it's massive Well, look, I feel we've been at this longer than the first half of a football game, which is kind know, but I could talk about this all day. You're not allowed to could talk about this all day Do. You know that. I could talk about it all week Okay, well I mean, is there anything you haven't said that you must say before we close down the earbuds? No, but we have an email from our newscastter, which is very important. Some years ago, Philip says, some years ago, the Conservative Party chose a charismatic and popular mayor of London to be their prrime Minister. His name was Boris Johnson. Have we learned nothing The choice of Prime Minister should not be based on personality but someone who has the ability to lead a country through very difficult times. Andy Burnham has a lot to prove. I fear we're repeating the same mistakes of the past just not to argue with you because that would bring that catgate. Oh no which I' not going do. but remember Paddy O'Connor is rude about felines Once doesn't like them. he prefers dogs. Once I made a mistake And I've corrected the record. I've corrected the record. Look, let's be transparent. We both prefer dogs. Here's Philip Philip, what I want to say to you is But as we mentioned earlier When they chose Boris Johnson, he took Thesea Mayays weaked position in government. Y. And he won an eighty seat majority say. So when you say have we learned nothing, you could argue that both ways because obviously it didn't end well the Boss Johnson project. No, but we don't know what would have happened if it hadn't been the pandemic and all of those kinds of things. And yeah, there was someone else in the Liberor Party was saying that's me, look at this and they were kind of bit crossed because they think this idea that change in the leader is always a disaster actuallyctually iss wrong headaded because the circumstances are always different However, I want to read out Andy Wilson's email because he said, I can't wait for Laura to ask this question once more this weekend on newewscast and now she can give the answer. Is it Makerfield or Breakerfield It's Makerfield, Craandy Burnham Okay, that's the end. Peter Carl' on your sofie. P Car's on the program and're gonna have three back b ministers on our panel tomorrow all in different positions. So someone who wants w' streeting and definitely wants a contest Someone who wants Andy Bynham as soon as possible and somebody who thinks that Kure stara should actually be allowed to stay So we'll have three politicians fighting it out. We're also going to hear from Sammy Case, the former Cabinet seecretary about what it's like when there's a transition in the government because that's you know, there's big questions about whether or not it's good for the country to keep changing leaders And we're talking to a few other people. It can be a busy busy show. Great. So we're doing the Sunday sccoops at all revealed. We are also talking to Dame Mary Beard about this sort of classic personersal tragedy that comes out. There's eternal fight for power, the rivalries. The Romans were always afraid of the enemy from the North. Yes And we're talking about the heat wave. And the solstice falls during our programmes at nine hundred twenty four. Oh does it? Yes. the actual moment