The Summer Recess and Government Plans

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This advertisement doesn't constitute an offer or solicitation nor a description of any products or services of AxorXL Henry Paddty. Can neither of you play chess? I'm aware of the rules, but beyond that, no, Asolutely not. That's such a political answer. Sorry. I mean, as I I could play against you, but you'd beat me very quickly, asssuming you're good, I' No, I' not. I can play drafts. But we're asking because we're looking at a picture of the current Chancellor of the Exchequer in Kyiv playing chess where it's a massive outdoor pastime Yeah, somewhere in the capital of Ukraine, she is having a game of chess. We know that she's good at chess. She's talked about it before. She was some kind of champion at some point in her teenage years And this photograph was taken yesterday What is going on, Henry So I think Rachel Reeves is in Ukraine. trying to demonstrate the support that she has given, the government has given, while she's been in control of the public finances for the past two years to the Ukrainian war effort. It is an absolutely brilliant photo by the Absolutely brilliant Stehan Rousseu PA Media's main political photographer But no. It is also has a particular quality to it, doesn't it? Because we know that Rachel Reeves is headed out of the treasury. And you know there is a certain quality to everything she does at the moment of a kind of valedictory tone. We don't know what job she might end up in under Andy Burnham, if anything, but it is a choice to do this in her final few weeks. produce this great photo. And she's there to commit UK money to Ukraine and we'll talk about the defefence invvestment planlan in Sunday's newewscast. Newscast. Newscast from the BBC. I will resign as leader of the Labour Party. And what will you do stare at a w. Humanity's next great voyage begins. You know I like my bususses. I'll come on to them. It's supposed to be me as a doctor.. Thinking about it like a panter helped. Do we play music now or what is it? Hello, it's Patt in the studio. It's Victoria in the studio. And it'senry, also in the studio. We like it when you come in, although we also like hearing Henry at home just for those of us who like that sort of thing. Well when the heat wave's over, I'll be back there. his's hot flat' brought him in. But it's also hot week for the politics. Did you know seven days ago Kistam hadn't resigned? It just seems bizarre. It feels like about six months ago or is it just because it's kind of unremarkable now and we just get used to these things. I think what's been so weird about this week actually, is that Kisama resigned on Monday, when we were talking last week, Paddy We sort of thought that was coming B Monday early afternoon We basically knew what was going to happen next. We knew that Andy Burnham was almost certain to succeed him. And I think the speed at which The second part of the story was wrapped up. has made it quite a strange week because it means that in news terms we're way ahead. We're talking about who might be in his cabinet, we're talking about what he might do. You know Ordinarily There is kind of an ordinary pattern to transitions now because we've had so many of them in the last few years. It takes a little while longer, Party members might be consulted. clearly isn't happening this time and it has made it you know a strange week, hasn't it desespite all that though, Kirama is going to publish his defense investment plan this week. It was due in autumn last year. We're expecting it Tuesday. And that will be ahead of the NATO summit Which is it early next month. So we had thought this was going to be a stushy between the outgoing Kistara and the incoming Andy Burnham, because it's a billion pounds they found down the back of the sofa, it looks like. But the Sunday Times reports today, I think it is, that it looks like Andy Burnham signed it off after a briefing in Whitehall. Do you know about this? Not beyond their report It would have been weird if he hadn't been brought into the conversations at least to some degree. and that reflects the reality that he is going to be the next prime Minister. I mean, I think What we'll need to report out over the next few days is there's a difference between getting a sort of very high level briefing and endorsing the entire contents of it. So it's entirely possible that Andy Burnham says, yeah, that sounds okay. I'm pleased you found a bit more money since John Healley resigned. That's the billion pounds to which you referred. The government has come up with a little bit more money, but way short of the amount that John Healy said was needed before he quit as Defense Secretary But look, I think it's still entirely possible that within a few weeks of becoming Prime Minister Andy Burnerman, whoever his defense secretary is might want to demonstrate that they want to go even further and add several billion pounds more. but of course that then would require some pretty difficult decisions about where else to spend money or rather not spend money And Sir Tony Radakkin, former Chief of the Defense staff, was on Laura's show this morning if you had one line of advice for the incoming Prime Minister, what would it be It is keep our country safe Acknowledge that you have this extraordinary responsibility. so you're almost like a wartime prime M mininister at the moment And that means you need to invest in what really keeps us safe. So as well as having the Mak a field test I would say it's the Moscow test So what do we look like to Moscow? Do we look like a strong member of the NATO Alliance Do we look like a strong nuclear power Do we look like a strong ally of America? Because those are the elements that keep us safe Yes, so one of the Sunday sums this up as drones not destroyers, that although the military always asks for more money, there's been this consensus from military chiefs for months warning that we're underfunded. Then John Heley went because he didn't see enough investment as promised, he said by Kar and Rachel Reeves. Dan Jarvis, the new defefence secretary, has now got more money than the outgoing John Healley had. That's actually happened Yeah, and I think it reflects that The resignation of John Healy was such a significant moment. Look, I think Kir Stahmer's position, as we've been reflecting on newscasts for a while was already very precarious But I suspect that once the books come to be written on this period John Healy resigning as defense secretary a few weeks ago and saying Kir Stahmer wasn't giving enough money for defense was perhaps the final nail. He was unable And he was unable to get it wasn't he? Well, John Healy was unable to get that extra money, yes, but I think it also meant that it was that much harder for Kir Starmer to make an argument. as Prime Minister, one of the things he'd got right protecting the UK was spending the money that needed to be spent on defence and so on But look, yes, I think it sounds like Dan Jarvis who replaced John Healley and actually quite a lot of labour MPs were surprised that he took that job, that anyone took that job in those circumstances does seem to have got a bit more money. The other thing that we understand is that he seems to have tweaked the contents of the Defence invvestment plan bit more towards of the future a bit more towards those drones rather than to you know o perhaps more traditional items of defence spending. which is what Al Khnes, once he resigned as arrmed Forces minister, was saying he didn't feel happy about. He wasn't involved in the funding bit, but he felt the focus wasn't quite right. So This might be the sort of thing, I suppose It satisfyies. It's intriguing because Alchan, his career was in the Royal Marines. But also if you zoom right out DIP was sort of, as you say, fired the starting gun on K Kama's own resignation. Now it's come back as a bridge between the two prime ministers, between the two Labour prrime mininisters And our guest today from the Times, Patrick McGuire said, you can rest assured, the MOD is going to come back and ask for more money. So Andy Burnham is going to be faced demands for more money early in his timees as Prime Minister. Look, and it's one of the many things that we haven't heard Andy Burnham speak that much about. understandably, given that he been running a local by election campaign for the last several weeks and running a city combined authority in Greater Manchester before that, though Victoria, among others managed to tempt Andy Burnham slightly onto national issues during that by election campaign look, I think there are a lot of unanswered questions about the extent to which he believes defense spending needs to rise, the things that he might be willing to spend less on in order to spend more on defense. And perhaps we'll learn a little more from Andy Burnham's first big national political intervention for a long time toomorrow, when heiv a speech, essentially his first speech as presumptive Prime Minister, which is going to focus on the economy, though I think it's more about the economy and regional growth and devolution than it is about issues like this, but let's see And in the meantime, the Housing Secretary is still the housing seecretary, Steve Reid, was on Laura's show, and this is what he had to say about defense spending. We came into office committed to reaching two point five percent of GDP as our defense spend by the end of this Parliament, and we've exceeded it already. And the announcements that the Prime Minister will make link to the defeense investment plan will go even beyond that figure. Now of course, we all see the threat that Russia, in particular, but not only Russia poses to our country, we see the changing nature of that threat with cyber attacks and new forms of attack. We're working very, very closely with the Ukrainians and the way that they have transformed their ability to defend themselves against Russia. So we need to learn from all of that and make sure that is applied to how we spend that money. But the bottom line here is defending this country is the first responsibility of any government and this government will keep the UK safe Yes, although there was a resignation of the Defense Scretary over how much money you're going to spend And also one of the other standout factors of the last few years is that although there has been all this turmoil within the Conservative Party and in fact on the British right, and so much turmoil within the Labour Party and now of course, there's a new partarty on the left There was almost a handover of policy on Ukraine. from the consonservatives to labour, and we've discussed this before. You look for primary colourors because everything else is so confusing in our politics. But on the question of backing President Zelensky and backing it with British bucks, we have done it. and we have trained thousands and thousands of Ukrainian forces, and we're now learning from then on what to do with drone construction, which links to how we might spend our money If we are searching for certainties in this time, anden Ukraine actually funny enough in all the political turn is one of them. Yeah, and there's a near total political consensus within the Labour Party on how they should approach Ukraine. So I would not expect any deviation from Burnham and whoever is his foreign secretary, still rumours, by the way, as we I think first brought newscasters this time last week that that could be Lord David Miliband, as he would become in order to become foreign seecretary. We must talk about But look, I would expect complete continuity, but continuity of ambition to support Ukraine as much as the government can doesn't necessarily tell us anything about the detail Andandy Burnham's Chancellor would be willing to commit when there are all sorts of domestic priorities as well. Can I ask B Ed Milliband is Chancellor of the Exchequer and David, Lord Milliband is foreign Secretary. Could that actually happen? There are people I've been speaking to all week who think Not only could that happen but it's quite plausible. But there is another concern peopleeople including allies of Andy Burnham, I mean, everyone in the Labour Party now seessel as an ally of Andy Burnham, the actual allies of Andy Burnham Express, which is Hang on a second. Andy Burnham. is a man, obviously, and Vic asks Lucy Powell why the Labour leader is yet again set to be a man. They've never had a female leader in their one hundred and twenty odd year history. He's a man who was last prominent in national politics last in the cabinet in the late newew Labour period Ditto both millibands Obviously, Adenibhan hass been in the cabinet the last couple of years as energy seecretary. Andy Berham appointed as his chief of staff, prospective chief of staff this week, James Poneneell another man who played in the same football team as all of them back in the new Labour period Is this Is it starting to feel a bit retro and is it starting to feel a bit blokey? Those are questions that you are hearing Labour MPs ask. And so I wouldn't at all be surprised if in order to counterbalance that to some extent, Lucy Powell, who Vic spoke to today, who is already the deputy leader of the Labour Party could become the deputy Pime Minister, which she currently isn't, David Lammy is. But I think that is something as this cabinet gets formed in private, but with all sorts of briefings and leaks over the next few weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if those are questions you hear asked more and more Just put yourself into the mind of whoever the new prrime Minister will be, why would you move Evette Cooper from Foreign Secretary just to have your own people in there? Yeah, I mean, there are a lot of people who are saying Given the churn in foreign secretaries in the past decade, which I think exceeds the churn in prime ministers It would make sense to leave someone there who already has the relationships. And Evette Cooper, she hasn't been foreign Secretary that long, but of course she has spent the last ten months or so building up those relationships. So I think that is very plausible Of course she is another figure from the last few years of new labour, so she knows Andy Burnham well and vice versa So no, I think that is certainly possible. The case being made for a figure from kind of outside current electoral politics as foreign Secretary is that Andy Burnham wants to as far as he can, avoid getting sucked into spending so much time on foreign policy as Kiss Ama did, Partntly, that's up to the world, not up to the UK Prime Minister But how do you do that? Well, the model that some look to is when Rishi Sunat made David Cameron his foreign secretary, and being a former prime minister, he had the clout to just do stuff that otherwise prime ministers would have to do. Of course, David Milhaman wasn't Prime Minister, but he was Foreign Sectary for three years and then has spent the last decade or more, perhaps, running a big NGO, so has various of those relationships. And has met everyone really around the world already. I think the thing is everyone has now agreed, I say everyone, newscasters, listeners to radio four Most of them would agree with the statement that Kiram appeared unprepared for government. Now I'm not making that as my own judgment. I'm saying that is what people generally now say. And we are now looking at a situation where Andy Berer has got weeks to come up with a plan with people with a program And it looks to me like the real time he's been spending is on team building. You mentioned how some of them played in the same football team. I think he's been spending his time trying to get names, names, names on the doors. He wants to come to the world and say, look at all these people I've got And that's also clear in the way that he's letting it know who's advising him on the economy. and that links to the big speech tomorrow on Monday. Yeah, that's right. And some of those advisers Andy Haldane, former chief economist to the Bank of England Lord O'Neill, Jim O'Neill, who was actually a treasury mininister under George Osborne for a period of time, although I don't think he was ever a conservative But those are distinguished figures who are designed, I think to reassure the bond markets who Andy Berham famously said, the UK needed to stop being in Hock two I mean, on the transition point. I think what we're going to have a test of here is whether the issue with Kirama and his preparations was time Hm himself essentially ism, the lack of inism. because Kirst Stahmer was leader of the Labour Party for al twenty twenty. Right, exactly. four years, more than four years before he became Prime Minister So he had plenty of time to prepare for government And there is a widespread admission now across the Labour Party that they weren't prepared Perhaps the issue was the lack of a governing ideology with Andy Berham. Perhaps it may well be, okay, he only has a few weeks. But he has Manchesterism comombined with his own ministerial experience, which of course Kissed Armor didn't have. And perhaps that clearer sense of purpose will mean that the three weeks is plenty. I think that is the sort of essay question that we're going to see answered over the coming weeks, months and years. But whatever, expectations from those who support labour or who want to see Andy Burnham be a successful prrime minister. The expectations are up there.. I mean, I just can anyone taking over that job match the expectations. I I'm not sure. Well, because the scrutiny that comes is know you're going from running buses to having the nuclear yes and no And it seems to me that you were one of the journalists, as you often are, who was in the thick of it when he replied, I don't want to be tested on the fiscal rules Guess what, Andy Burnham, You're about to be tested on the fiscal rules every time you walk out of the door. every time you walk into the door. That's your job now But I will say this in answer to the question which I raised about preparedness. It is one of the first genuine broad smiles I've seen in the commons for a very long time. that you do see smiles. Kemmy Badenock gets a lot of her side laughing as well. and she's smiling. But actually when he took his oath of office and someone shouted to him, not the Messiah and he shouted back, I'm a naughty boy It was like a return to me to the sort of feeling that there was a few years ago when there was sort of more affability. and the smile I thought there's this cultism around him, but it was a genuine smile. Can I just say to younger newscasters, just search at lifeife of Brian on YouTube because they will have no idea what's going on. Brilliant film, Monty Python fan suits me in my b. Very, very funny. Very funny Actually we shouldn't advertise rival services but it's on a rival streaming service at the moment, I believe. But it's that sort of war where one of the rivals doesn't. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And he just taps it in. He looks like he's having fun. That's what I mean. He looks like he enjoys politics. and I think probably is a very important quality in a time of National Gloom. Kirst Amer himself has admitted that he thinks he made a big mistake when early on, he said Things are going to get worse before they get better I don't think Andandy Burnham is going repeat that mistake But look, ultimately. The question is not going to be whether he looks like he's having fun, it's whether people feel like they're having better lives. And he's already nailed the word hope in Makerfield. He says, let's give people hope. Another person who is enjoying herself, I think, is Kemy Badenock. And I think you know what will the rival parties make of this time? Do you think we can predict a whole period when we're going to be hearing general election calls. Well, then it would be Brend Well, there are already already calls for a general election, but what's the name? Brenda from Bristol? Not another one. I mean, it would be I mean, I don't know. businessus would not necessarily be very pleased because it means more uncertainty. peopleople put off you know, making investments, et cetera, et ceter There are some who are suggesting that Andy Berham if there is some kind of bounce in the polls, he could be super audacious, go to the country, get his own mandate. It might mean he might lose some labour MPs and Yeah, I've I've I mean, you know, I've no idea if he's going to be old in that respect. Well, the thing is we now have Both sides of the argument have been demonstrated the last twenty years, you know Gordon Brown didn't call that early election and Andy Burnn was in his cabinet at the time. perhaps always regretted it. But then almost a decade on from that, Theresa May did go for the early election. void she end up regretting that? So look, we don't know. I think it's really interesting though that know the conseratives haven't called for an early election, and James cleleverly said to Vic earlier willer I didn't call for one when we kept changing leader and you know, I think I think that's a fair point from him. but you know, you also had Lucy Powell saying, look, we're a parliamentary democracy. This is This is how our system works. Of course, that's not what Labour was saying when the Conservatives changed lead. But I think we probably do now have a consensus from both parties having both done it in recent memory that this is our system. This is a parliamentary democracy. How a presidential a general election campaign feels? Reform is calling for a a general election. Can I go back to where we started? Of course, whichich is the figure of Rachel Reeves I do find it all absolutely fascinating. her gameplay when we started talking about chess Because as Kemy Bayno pointed out, to some criticism of her tone incidentally, which we haven't covered on newscast today, but is out there very actively, is Rachel Reeves did not attend Kir Stahmer's resignation speech in Downing Street but was in the group selfie with Andy Burnham. She has made it plain that it's up to him to decide what happens with her job but implying her work is still to be done. She's being photographed in Kyiv, we explained why. What can you predict for us for Rachel Reeeves Look I can predict she's not going to be the Chancellor under Andy Burnham. I mean, he ran a campaign on change. It was never plausible that he would keep the same economic figurehead in place Beyond that, I don't know. I think it's very hard to know. She's been a massive figure in the Labour Party. I know it sounds obvious, but we should just stress it for six years now working out what labour's economic offers should look like in this time of global economic turmoil If she does get offered another cabinet job, I think we should just stress how unusual that is actually for a Chancellor. You have to go back to nineteen eighty three find a Chancellor who was demoted to a more junior cabinet position rather than just leaving because it's such a big job that you end up doing that and then leaving the cabinet or becoming Prime Minister. And in that case, by the way, in nineteen eighty three, Jeffrey How became foreign secretary.ot sure Rachel Reeves is a job that big. so it's going to be really interesting to see what she does next. Be I think she's flashing her headlights at Andy Burnham because she she's not she's so linked with Kir Starama, but now she's so linked with respect for Andy Burnham in her public statement and in her we It' also linked with the bond markets as well So let's say keep saye she does a deal to stay And then there's another woman in the cabinet which she seems to be having trouble with as well. So there's lots of reasons why he might want her. Steve Reid is housing secretary on Luras show this morning, I mean, in a kind of unenviable position wanting to you know talk about a debt of gratitude to Kir Starmer, who he has been loyal to, but also clearly wanting to keep his job as housing sectary and saying how much he supports Andy Burnham. I mean it' Again, it's small violins, but it is a tricky balancing act, isn't it? You want to go, hi, I'm still here. I've built some houses Well, and you're seeing all sorts of cabinet ministers auditioning to keep their jobs at the moment the mathematical reality is that there are people around Andy Burnham who we know are going to get jobs, Lou' Hagig and so on And then there are also there's also just the fact that he is going to want to demonstrate change and one way of demonstrating change is by changing a lot of the top personnel, the kinds of voices who come on programs on the BBC on Sundays to describe the government's agenda. then they're all starting from scratch on new portfolios. so that takes time then to get something to happen. It does. The assumption is that Andy Burnham wants to tweak the direction traveveling quite a lot of those portfolios, perhaps that might be easier with a new person. O. So I think we now talk about the football because there's only really three talking points in the UK at the moment. One is the weather, the other is the change in Downing Street, and the other is the football. Did you stay up? I did. it wasn't that late. I mean I guess I'll up thirC one. Okay, yeah, fair enough No, I did stay up, but what I'm more anxious about timing wise, and I don't know if many people have clocked this is if when England beat the Democratic Republic of Congo on Wednesday. then the round of sixteen match is going to be or Monday week at one in the morning Right. now is the country going to stay out for that I mean, I will be, but then I start work a few hours after that. say Well, I think the country I mean England will st the England supporters, we have to commiserate with Scotland who are out And whose manager Steve Clarkke resigned Over You did.. I mean, I love watching England. Ive followed them around, d d. I don't know if I'll st up becausecause BBC sport are doing this excellent eight minute highlights package you can catch up on with no spoilers exactly right. So you can catch up every morning over your breakfast, all the games you missed in the middle of the night So might have to do that. But if if England get past the Spoiler alert if they go all the way all the way. What are you talking about, Maddy? do you mean to the finals? Yes. Am I hearing you right? Well I''ve not that I'm picting, but I'm saying the question would arise which of the two men would represent theimeter would be the prrime mininister at the World Cup if it went to that? Well Kisama will still be the prime minister. won' be labour leader But he will be Prime Minister. It would be his last day as Pime Minister. So presumably he'd have to get the red eye back from New York in order to see the king in the morning Wow So that's what it's a link, you see. No, it's a great link,y. That's why I'm not as far ahead as you. But I've read the script. On which front we go to Allison, our newscaster, who wants to be the supporter reporter. I'm a living in Brazilia. I've been here for almost twenty years, football is a religion here. On the day of a Brazil match, many people are allowed to leave work four hours before kickoff and almost everything closes. This time around the matches is a sensible time for us to watch due to the time difference. Naturally, I'm still supporting England, it's coming home. I love your programme. I've been listening to it for years. Keep up the great work Innovation has always kept the world moving forward But it also comes with risk. In a world that is as complex and unpredictable as it is exciting. AXA XL is facing into risk. As a leading global insurer, we constantly push the boundaries to protect your business and power your innovations. AXAXL facing into risk for a future to be imagined This advertement doesn't constitute an offer or solicitation, nor a description of any products or services of AXorEXcel. How did a boycott Jimmy become a billionaire from posting videos? On G good bad billionaire, We're gonna to find out how the world's most popular YouTuber, Mr. Beast made his fortune. He's buried himself in a coffin for days, counted to a hundred thousand on camera, and even recreated squid games all in an attempt to go viral on the internet. But it all started when he gave a homeless man thousand dollars So is he a philthropist reshaping capitalism? Or is he just the king of the attention economy? Find out on G Bad Billionaire. Listen on bBc d. com or wherever you get your podcasts No. Just going back to where we started with the other supporter reporter Henry, that means that the day that we are predicting for the Prime Minister to take office is I mean, it's not even prediction. It is confirmed fact now, which is Monday, july the twentieth There is a slightly odd element to this by the way which is that The House Commons won't be sitt anymore So they rise for their summer recess, six or so weeks break, the Thursday beforehand So I I was speaking to one MP the other day who has reasonable chances, I think of being appointed to Andy Bonham's government who said as a minister, who said to flight for the Friday Which is the day the leadership handover happens, but not the prime mininisterial handover So I don't know if they'll be cancelling it in the hope of being appointed. I mean, you know, I doubt anyone's hearts are really going to ble for MPs, but they have been excing that everything would end then. But also it just does mean that unless they extend Parliament sitting by a week or so, which they can do. It does mean you won't see Andy Burnham at the dispatch box as Prime minister until he's been Prime Minister for about six weeks You won't necessarily have him addressing labour MPs telling them this is what I'm going to do. So it's a slightly odd time to take over, but then it might also mean that he can spend the summer going out around the country. And we know that as Prime Minister, he wants to spend much more of his time generally in Manchester in particular, but also I'm sure around the country But he could use the whatever that room is where they built Lecton and whatever to do a daily press conference. If you remember last summer, reform absolutely exploited the fact that most of the other parties seem to have gone off on holiday and did a press conference almost every day. Now, whether they'll do that this year, I have no idea, especially when there are still questions around the five million gift that Nigel Farch had from the crypto billionaire I mean, You know, it would seem that whoever takes over is going to have to hit the ground running and show to people that they've hit the ground running. They're going to have to