The Unforeseen Costs of Extraordinary Experiences

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Now I want other things You're listening to No Stupid Questions, the podcast that explores the weird and wonderful ways in which humans behave. Har are your hosts, Stehven Dpner and Angela Duckworth Stephven, I have a question here from a par suunstrom from Sweden. Mind if I read it to you? I'd love to hear what par suunstrom from Sweden has to S I have a question, pairits, loosely related to this past summer's UEFA Euro twenty twenty. A the Euros. Can you just tell me what that is before I redo the rest? It's soccer or what the rest of the world calls football. Essentially it is the World Cup for the European national teams. So it's the World Cup, but not for the world In some ways, it's better because the relationships and rivalries between, let's say, Sweden and Eng, whatever, there's a lot, a lot of history between them. It was held this past summer, which was twenty twenty one because in twenty twenty, when it was supposed to be, it was postponed for COVID. This makes a lot more sense then, because the question goes on, consider a situation where a team has tried but failed to win a certain title for a long time and then suddenly Mages to emerge victorious. I don't know if this had something to do with exactly what played out in the UAFoot tournament. Well, if Par is Swedish, he's not talking about his national team. Sweden was eliminated in round of sixteen this summer. Italy won the Euros. But maybe Par is a Swede who pulls for Italy. Was Italy the underdog I don't think Italy is ever really an underdog in the Euros because they're really good. although England was weirdly the favorite. The English are really into soccer. But you know, the English invented at least partially all these sports that they now get crushed at all the time. Oh, it's sad. They invented tennis. I think they invented Badminton. And cricket. And they never win anything. Ping pong. I don't think they invented ping pong. They didn't. Are you sure? Okay, let's see. who invented Hingong. because I feel like they brought it over to China when they colonized Hong Kong Does appear you are correct. The answer to the question, who invented table tennis is Englishman David Foster The patent was filed in july eighteen ninety. All right, well, since I'm on a roll here, I'm just gonna to say, then they colonized parts of Asia and now, we just kick their asses. So anyway, the question continues, could such a situation after the initial celebrations have settled bring depression to the hardcore fans The reason I would expect this to be the case is that the fans who have been longing for this win for a long time may have assigned a very strong significance to this event Despite the fact that it is unlikely to bring much actual impact on their lives, It was the sports scenario that brought this question to my mind, but I expect that there may be a more general application to situations where a significance of a wanted event is assigned based on feelings or incorrect predictions rather than facts I could take both sides of this argument There's this thing known as a success hangover Yeah. But I think success has more to do with something that you've accomplished, not the team that you root for. So that's the wrinkle in this. But they could be part of the same thing though. I think what you mean is I win a gold medal or you publish a book and it becomes a bestseller and then you feel bad afterward. Right. The arrival fallacy which is the false belief that when you reach your destination, you will continue to be happy. And then I'll be happy forever. And you're right to point out like, well, it doesn't matter if it's your success or somebody else's. But I think there's a way to explain this parsimoniously and keep it all in the same theory. There's some research that I know only vaguely, but I'm sure you know by Dan Gilbert. This has to do with the vacation you haven't yet had versus the vacation that you just took. When we are looking forward to something, the anticipation is delicious and large. Is that right? That's right. He thinks that we forecast affectively into the future, affective, meaning, I don't know why, but psychologists like to call emotions affect. R. Pretty confusing for the rest of the world. But anyway, affective forecasting is your prediction of how you will feel in the future problem here is that this vacation you've imagined for a while, you think, o time off work. I'm going to spend time with people that I love. We're going to go to a different place. We're going to have that nice Fresh start effect kicking in And then you get to the vacation and if you're Angela Duckworth, you're like, the wi Fi isn't working well enough here for me to write this paper I need to from the hotel that's looking at the beach, right? Yes. And Dan's point, I think, in this affective forecasting work, is that we do a very bad job of accurately predicting how we'll feel. He doesn't think that we get the basic valence wrong. He was like, Look, if you think you're going to feel generally positive by going on vacation, in general it doesn't flip but just that we might mispredict the duration in particular, like how long you'll feel good. You might also mispredict the intensity. So in general, the idea is that to make any decision, you have to predict how you're going to feel later as a function of this decision. And one of the problems is that human beings are not very good at forecasting how we're going to feel So I understand all that and I can see how it applies to the vacation, however, in response to Par's question of whether you're inevitably going to be let down or have nowhere to go after climbing this mountain topop I would say that even with a vacation, you can always take another vacation And you can look forward to that one And you could be wrong about that one too you can create a new anticipation for yourself. And I would say similarly, let's say your team hasn't won a championship for fifty years and then they win Are you going to have a little bit of a success hangover? Maybe, but one of the nice things about sports is there will always be another one. You can compete and win next year. Now life is not always like that, right? You may have some huge goal, like you mentioned writing a book, let's say, you have this one book that you've always wanted to write. And then you rate it. and you succeed But then what happens now? Maybe you'll write another, but maybe you only had the one book in you. Do you remember the last scene in the graduate? When they're on the bus? Yeah, on the bus. Benjamin busts into the church, stops the wedding, grabs the bride, they run out, they jump on the bus ecstatic. They're looking Really, really happy for like twenty, thirty, sixty seconds, and then there's smiles Bade. thrill wears off and the uncertainty sets in. I think that's a little bit more of what Par is thinking about, whereas sports is a little bit different because there is that option for renewability. You can do it again and again and again. So you would say that after your team finally wins, you know, fill the blank title, the World Series, the Super Bowl, the UAF title, whatever that you can now start fantasizing about the next one. L it's just a renewable resource. It's a more renewable resource than many Before we concede that point, like, yeah, o, sports are a renewable resource as always the next championship. But I think that for some of these teams where it's been like sixty five years since they won the last title, I think the fact that you then win it, what you were anticipating, what you were effectively forecasting, what you were looking forward to is the first win In years. If you win it the next year, then you're like, oh yeah and then another one. You won't appreciate it as much. Yeah, I think that this is getting at the projection of a euphoria that you anticipate lasting a really long time and about how we get it wrong. And I don't think it's just sort of like, oh, and just do it again. I know Robert Chaldini, your friend and a psychologist I admire has this work about basking and reflected glory. So there were these three field experiments that had to do with university students and whether their football team won or lost This must have been in the eighties, maybe early nineties. I think it was early in his career. I remember it was because he was kind of despondent that these laboratory manipulations that he was trying out that he was hopeful about, they kept not really working. And then I think he had an office in the stadium Like literally, I don't know how this worked, but he happened to have an academic office in the sports stadium. And then when he just watched these sports fans, he was like, Ohh, in the lab, I'm trying to do these very subtle manipulations so I get these teeny tiny effects on human behavior. This is big, just watching these crazy sports fans screaming like maniacs and walking around the next day, elated if they won, depressed if they lost. He was like, I think I should study this. So he measured how likely they were to be wearing what he called school identifying apparel, meaning, you know, a football jersey that said the name of the team or maybe the name of a player after a win people were much more likely to wear that shirt. Yeah. mayaybe not surprising, but you know, it was good evidence. He also noted that students were much more likely to use the pronoun we when describing the team and the victory, then if the team had lost So what that's about to me is this sort of payoff of an investment. So when you're a fan of something, especially a sports team, you do kind of think of yourself as an investor because Good things happen, bad things happen. Sometimes you get rewarded, sometimes you get punished, but you invest all these hours, maybe money in this object of your affinity. and if it pays off, I think you do get some residual psychological dividends from that And so while I appreciate that there might be diminishing returns if your team hasn't won for fifty years And then they win and then they win again the next year Might you be less joyful the second time? Sure. Diminishing returns happen everywhere, but I think that pars supposition that you might just fall off a cliff be despondent, I don't buy it in the realm of sports at least. Because you're thinking about all these Euphoric fans proudly sporting their jerseys the next day, et cetera. And like that seems pretty good, right? You're like, Par, why so glum? I mean, here's the question. How long does this basking in reflected glory affect as Chalini termed it? How long does it last I think the effective forecasting research that's been done by Dan Gilbert and others suggests that we are really bad at predicting how long things are going to last. And generally for positive feelings, we expect them to last longer than they do. We can also, by the way, expect negative feelings to last longer. I mean, we can get it wrong in lots of different ways The reason is even more interesting, and that is something which is even more broad and general than what we're talking about here, which is called focalism. And I know you know about this because Danny Conneman, the Nobel laaureate, who we also think is a great person and a friend, you know about his work. and focalism is when we focus on something, which is only a small part of the picture, like we just think about what it willll feel like when the Eagles win the Super Bowl. We focus on that and we ignore everything else. We neglect everything else. So Danny likes to call this what you see is all there is. And the reason why we make these affective forecasting mistakes is I imagine my vacation. I imagine what it's going to be like to eat sushi every night and not have to do the dishes. It's going to be great. And then you neglect other things in the future, like there's going to be a two hour delay on the flight and we're going to get into an argument about whether they were supposed to, you know make the reservation. You're now describing every family vacation ever, by the way. Well, see, this is a thing. and when we decide to just imagine the positive. I think that is kind of what happens when you imagine what it'll be like when your team wins. Maybe you even imagine basking to glory. you're like, I'm going to wear the jersey. Then you're going to neglect the inevitable, which is like, and then you're going to have sixteen things that you werere supposed to do at work and then you know, four other things are going to happen. You're not imagining the hassles. You don't think much of sports fans, do you, Angela? Well, here's the thing.. I'm trying maybe because I know nothing about sports to extend this to a more general phenomenon. But I'm with Pear here, right? You are. Because Par's like, hey, how do we understand this is part of a bigger thing? And I think in a way, this failure to account for all the things that are really gonna to happen That's not so bad. Let me give you an example of book writing because it's something that you and I have both done. Actually, I've talked to a lot of people right after they finished writing a book And while they say, I'm proud that I finish, they're very often in a little depression because they're not writing the next book. And I really do think there's something about fantasizing about the like ten years of joy we're going to have from finishing a book or you know, I remember saying to God, literally, I said this. I was like, if you will just let me marry Jason. I swear, I was gonna swear to God, but I was already talking to God. I swear I will never ask for another thing. Just give me Jason. Wow. And you know, I'm very happily married. But I will say that I have a longer list of things on my want list than justaring Jason has now already married him. so now I want other things No What was Jason's position at that moment Was he saying, Dar God, if I have to marry Angela, there are a lot of wriders on the contract. No, I'm sure that Jason wanted to marry you as much as you wanted to marry him. No, I think there was a little bit of is retetreat. Really? Because I'm very extreme in my emotions and also he was already dating someone. So anyway, it was complicated. Oh I know. the story gets better by the moment That's why I had to talk to God. It wasn't straightforward. I had to get God to intervene. Did you have to poison her? or anything like that I don't think I did anything immoral or untoward. You were just your badass self. And at a certain point, he saw the light. I think mostly my argument was this, Oh my God, I love you so much. Can we get married? I think that was my dominant strategy. Still to come on no stupid questions, Steven and Angela debate whether it's better to win and feel bummed out or to never have won at all I think the moral of that story is try to never have any wonderful experience It's smart to always have a few financial goals and are really smart when you can setit earning cash back on what you buy every day And with Discover You can this Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it And we trust you to make smart decisions After all, you listen to this show see terms at discover d. com slash credit card No StupidQuestions is sponsored by Mint Mobile. Mint Mobile plans are only fifteen dollars per month. Wondering what's the catch There isn't one. There are no gimmicks and no gotches. 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There's no catch. forty five dollars upfront payment required equivalent to fifteen dollars a month New customers on first three mononth plan only speeds slower above forty gigabytes on unlimited plan. addditional taxes fees and restrictions apply, see MintMobile for details I'm Keiana, and I leveveled up my business with Shopify Once I figured out that Shopify was a thing, I never turn back. I can create a site with my eyes closed. Shopify thinks ahead of us, you know, and it thinks about the customer more than anything. Every day I'm thinking about some other new business, but Shopify is doing it to me because it's so easy to use. It's like I can't stop I'm addicted Start your free trial at shhopify d. com Before we return to Stehven and Angela's conversation about effective forecasting, I'd like to share some of your thoughts on the topic We asked listeners to tell us what joy looks like for them after a big win Von Carapetri five writes that success hangovers are a part of their career Qote As an artist, this seems to happen every time I finish a piece I'm proud of, and it turned out well The first thing I always think of is, great. how am make it achieve a similar level of quality for the next one Brian Runner says that they experience, quote post race blues after most long distance running events At Johan has a trick for managing success hangovers I include my family and or friends as part of the celebration Taking them to a nice dinner or something like that This allows the moment to be shared and extended. They will remind me one day about it and revisit the joy again. And finally, A Badista Nervoso responded to our question about how people experience success by saying You must be kidding. suuccess? What the fuck are you talking about Now, back to Stephen Angela's conversation about the arrival fallacy and success hangovers. So if we're going back to sports, I would ask Par a very simple question. What would you rather be fan of the team. that hasn't won a championship in twenty years or a fan of the team that hasn't won a championship in twenty years and then wins. And I think if you are a sports fan, it's a pretty simple answer. Will the ecstasy potentially be less fantastic and less long lasting than you might hope. course, as you've noted, just about everything that we wish for and predict is a little bit diminished I think as the lesser of two evils, I'd rather deal with the slightly diminished ecstasy than the continuing agony of rooting for, you know, the San Diego Padres, who've been around since nineteen sixty nine and haven't won a World sereries. No offense to all our friends in San Diego. If you're a New York Yankees fan or even a Boston Red Sox fan I think you would probably trade places with them. You don't want to give up your team, but you'd rather give up places emotionally. Interesting. I don't know if Par's gonna agree with you. I think the ideal, Stehven is that you get closer and closer and closer. What real happiness is is approaching the goal. And as we have thoroughly now discussed, I think achieving the goal might be a short lived euphoria. But I think the pleasure of getting a little bit closer, oh my gosh, now I'm even closer, That's actually much of what makes life worth living. I see what you're saying, but here's the thing I think that the currency changes a little bit. In other words, the emotion that you anticipate and fantasize about is of a certain flavor. And then after it happens, It's a different flavor. So I'll give you an example. As you know, I kind of like golf. You've ridiculed me roundly for liking golf. And when I started playing about ten years ago, I was pretty terrible because you know, I never played and it's really hard. And then I was getting very, very gradually better, but not fast enough. And then for a couple of years I thought I plateaued. I was really disappointed. I thought, oh I'm never going to break eighty. That's a score below which you're considered a pretty good golfer And then last year, finally toward the end of the season, it happened and it didn't feel amazing, but I felt proud. then it happened again And now it's happened five times And I shot my career low recently, which was a seventy five, which is actually a good score. Yeah, seventy five divide by eighteen. It's like less than four, right? Aittle more than four, but that's okay. Oh, more than four. Par is usually seventy two.ill fourourish So here's a thing After that round, I felt no euphoria. None Is something wrong? Are you okay Wh had I not? I felt no euphoria, I felt no elation, but I felt something that I think is even better which is that I felt satisfaction and I felt accomplishment. Interesting And they changed my perception of myself to, you know what? I really am an okay golfer. And so Again, it's a little bit different when you're rooting for a sports team. like I didn't go out there and throw that seventy yard touchdown b myself. I just wore the jersey of the guy who did it. So I think that's a little bit different than your own accomplishment. But I do think it's important to measure all the outcomes after that event which just may have a different shape, including, you know, maybe there's a vacation that you took with your family where you did fight a lot or there was some real unhappiness, but There may have also been some amazing connections made between people that will pay off in a different way in the long run. So I think it's a little bit complicated, but I would say to par If you're worried about your team winning because you'll feel let down, I would get rid of that worry and worry about why the hell your team hasn't won yet because I think that would be the better outcome And I would say pair If you disagree with Stehven, I got your back. I think there's something to be said for always approaching but never achieving Fill in the blank Let me ask you one last question. I'm Cious, how you think this idea might relate to the end of COVID because it's something everybody's looking forward to, right? too be totally quote normal again, to be social, to travel, et cetera And there seems this prediction that the end We'll usher in this wonderfully wild period of happiness and parties and everything. But do you think that the reality is that there will be some post COVID depression? I think with the events that are happening even right now, there is an opening up. I mean, in all parts of the country, there's some level of change from where we were in twenty twenty. It's not happening all at once. It's not happening on a single day. So we're just going to habituate and we don't even notice. I was thinking about the COJ Jason noted, hey, things are kind of getting back to normal. Students are going to school. We see people walking down the street jovially, they're eating sometimes outdoors, occasionally indoors Things are kind of getting back to normal. I hadn't even noticed because it's kind of transpired over a period of time. And tenure is like this. So when you are a professor and you try to keep your job, which is making tenure, you fantasize about it a lot and you think your whole outlook will be different and you imagine bugles and the heavens will open. And really it's such a gradual process because first the deans come back and they say, oh You passed your third year review, and that means that you made it through three years. And then you get progressively more certain feedback that probably you're going to be able to keep your job. And the day it actually happens, you get this phone call, we are proud to welcome you to our department. You're like Thanks Or you fake it, and you say like, oh my God, that's amazing I'm thrilled I am looking at this paper now that I bet you know. It's called The Unforeseen Costs of Extraordinary Experience. Dan Gilbert is one author They write that people seek extraordinary experiences from drinking rare wines and taking exotic vacations to jumping from airplanes, blah, blah, blah, blah but are such experiences worth having? This is a question that could only be asked in an academic psychology department, by the way. anyyway. We found that participants thoroughly enjoyed having experiences that were superior to those had by their peers, but that having had such experiences spoiled their subsequent social interactions and ultimately left them feeling worse than they would have felt if they had had an ordinary experience instead. Participants were able to predict the benefits of having an extraordinary experience, but were unable to predict the costs So Angela, I think the moral of that story is Try to never have any wonderful Extraordinary experience. That's what I take away The tall poppy gets cut down, the nail that sticks h gets hammered. Right. This is a lab experiment. So people are randomly assigned to either have a better or worse experience, like watch a really cool video or just like a normal video or boring video. And then they have these people sit around and talk. and I think the finding is that when you start talking and you're the only one in a group that had the awesome video and everybody else had the normal or the boring video, then you can feel a little bit left out. You don't feel like you're in the group, you're excluded. And I guess, under those circumstances where you have this extremely expensive wine or you got upgraded. you got to fly in first class, but everybody else in your group, they were all back in coach. then You all get together and they're all talking about their shared experience and you're like, oh, I guess I was in first class by myself. I guess I have no one to talk to Yes, undernder those circumstances, an extraordinary experience can be bad. I can also imagine just being like annoying by telling everybody about the thing that you got to do that nobody else did. I love it when people tell stories about crazy things that they've experienced or that happened to them. There are definitely scenarios in which extraordinary experience can actually increase social connection if relayid with social intelligence Like when I told you that I walked through leaping Tiger Gorge and almost died by falling into the Yantse river hundreds of feet below. I love that story. Yeah. And I hope it didn't make you feel excluded. No, I was so glad I wasn't there. I would have fallen off. Better you than me. But my point is that extraordinary experiences do not necessarily lead to social isolation. Right. But if you want to play it safe You should go through life trying to have no extraordinary experiences. Stehven's advice is to not have extraordinary experiences, but you do want to win the penant. I think these are my take homes of your recommendations. Perfect. Winning the UEFA title is good, but do it often enough that it's not an extraordinary experience And then you won't feel a gigantic letdown. Coming up after the break, a fact check of today's conversation From furniture to tableware, the best for outdoor living is at Perigold, the destination for luxury home. Elevate how you go Alfresco with quality pieces in every style from desesign's best brands. Shop in store and online at perigold. comot In a country that never stops moving, reliable energy is essential. People need oil, and natural gas for heating, transportation, and everyday items like clothing, cell phones, and contact lenses