Future Coalitions and Election Predictions

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Tui has more options and more choice with hundreds of destinations worldwide. So we can find somewhere for me to relax and you to get your adventure on. Perfect. Tui , you pick it, they saw it. Booking Ts and C's apply. Atoll and Abdo are protected. Whatever you're into, reading takes it to a whole new level. Because you might be into football stepping up to take the penalty. Imagine stepping into their boots. Chapter 12, the weight of 60,000 fans was on the shoulders. Would I become the all-time hero or the ultimate villain ? You might know their lyrics, but have you read their full story? I grew up with my mum's choir. Those harmonies, they spoke to my song. If you live it, read it, go all in for the National Year of Reading Hello and welcome to Not Another One. I'm Miranda Green and I'm joined this week by my colleagues Steve Richards and Tim Montgomery. We are all down the line, but minus Ian uh Ian but who is at Paris uh today having been called in to save as far as we understand it the uh Franco-British relationship at a at a s at a summit. So we're all sort of I th I think we should bask in the reflected glory a bit s uh slightly, don't you chaps, of of being being called upon to to d to do this. Uh keep a very important relationship. Uh I'm Should we worry more about the Anglo-French relationship ? No, I think we I don't think we shouldn't I think that's most disloyalty. Please please take a demerit point for that remark. I think it's safe in Ian's hands, but I am interested to hear what he comes back with because clearly Macron's role in uh the Ukraine crisis and in you know trying to uh deal with the Orban crisis in the EU and all the rest of it is very interesting so I wonder what he'll come back with. In the meantime, dear listeners, what we've decided to do is because uh the international situation is so fluid, we're actually recording this on Tuesday and uh Donald Trump's moving deadline to Iran means that we don't really you know know what what will happen by the time you hear this. So we're we are we are more than aware again of the international backdrop to our conversation, but uh we don't want to be uh uh you know a hostage to fortune in podcast form. So we will park that for now, maybe come back to it in our next epis ode because there's so much going on domestically as well. We thought we'd talk about domestic politics and specifically because we're into the local election campaign, Scottish election campaign, wealth election, Welsh election campaign. Pretty much across the UK . And we want to ask is is British politics becoming more tribal? Because you know, clearly the point of our podcast is we all have a very different perspective, not necessarily party aligned, but definitely a sort of party tradition and philosophy uh aligned the four of us. And Tim, you wanted to discuss this because you think it's getting worse, I think. Is that right? And is this to do with election time or is it to do with the generally febrile state of party politics? Well, I I've had a taste of it, Randah. Thank you for agreeing to do this topic. I've had a taste of it because um you uh you and Steve will have noticed. I I took on Matt Goodwin recently, a fellow reformer, for um suggestions that his latest book was not as well sourced as it might have been. Let's put it no stronger more strongly than that. And um I was very struck really by the number of people I knew I kind of predicted this would be the case, but I was I was more affected by it and more struck by it than I expected to be, was how many reformers, fellow reformers, basically said to me, uh , yeah, you may be right, but he's on our side, and we don't we don't question our side. And I think we all know this because, you know, the the podcast world we live in, you know, people people basically want to listen to people who they agree with. You know, that's one sign, one manifestation of this. But the justification for this uber partisanship, for want of a better expression, could be that people think the stakes are high, you know, that the difference between left and right now is greater than it has been for some time , and you can't undermine your own side. But the casualty, of course, is truth, I think. The casualty is a real examination of your own side's weaknesses and strengths. And my I have no regrets about taking on Matt Goodwin, but I do regret um how I think people don't really want to listen to critiques of their own side. And I'm struck by the force in which those points were made to me. That's so interesting, uh Tim. I think uh I I think you're very very uh on the money there when you talk about the casualties uh of this partisanship. Steve, what's your reading of this? And do you think the podcast world world is part of the problem? I mean, normally it's laid at the door of economic malaise post- 2008 crash and the explosion of social media all happening at the same time and sort of pushing people to uh polar opposites of left and right and then entrenching people in a sense of sort of online identity. Is that your diagnosis or do you quarrel with the whole premise anyway? I quarrel with some of the premise because if we're arguing that politics have become more tribal, we would have to define tribal very careful ly because clearly uh commitment to party is less strong and than it has been in the past. We talked about this in our last episode, the fracturing of politics in the May elections. The fracturing of party politics. So in that sense, clearly, uh politics less partisan. You know, a lot of people who traditionally would have supported Labour uh will be going to the Greens, Tories uh will be going to reform and so on. Um whether there is a sort of wider divide between right and left, which also makes demands on a sense of loyalty to one position or another, I think is a much more complicated question because definitions of right and definitions of left are so loose these days. What are you being loyal to Again, as we've discussed, I think there is going to be at the next general election broadly a left vote and a right vote and a lot of tactical voting to stop one or the other from prevailing. But in a way, I think it is worrying that party loyalties are breaking down in this sense. We are in a party-based system. And if the par ties become in effect kind of dysfunctional because people are no longer loyal to them, that can end up in quite a dangerous place. Hm, interesting. I mean I I I I was very struck by something that Tim said at a at the start about this whether it's because the stakes are so high as well. So you know, you Steve, you clearly have doubts about this definition of left and right . But I mean it is striking, isn't it, after so many years of you know those who are disaffected by party politics saying, Oh well, they're all the same, there's nothing to uh you know choose between them, and none of the uh PS and none of them are on my side. Now there is a definite quite wide choice of uh you know , if not exact ideologies , then packages of policies which are very, very dissimilar on right and left. I mean that's that's quite new, right? That's quite new in the last few years. That's a good thing. You don't want uh uh the only choice to be between um I don't know David Cameron and Tony Blair. Or maybe you do Miranda but um I was just thinking I was just licking my lips at that process. But I want to clarify one thing. I completely agree with Tim. Within uh parties uh there needs to be space for much self-criticism. And one of the things I've always uh thought about Tim when he found a Conservative home was that even though then he was tribally Tory, he was very interested in dissenting voices from within the Tory party and indeed outside. He used to very kindly tweet my columns from the Independent, and that was from definitely with outside Conservative Hope. And that is very you still you still owe me the money for those actually Steve. We had a dodgy deal going on. But um and I think one of the problems of the early phase of the Starmer Labour Party was uh internal dissent was punished uh brutally. Um and that actually made for a less healthy party politics. So I completely agree with he's had every right to criticise Mac Goodwin, even if they're both in the same party, and it would do the party good for that that scrutiny to take place. And that applies to all the other parties to o. So so so I agree with Tim absolutely on that. But I just think um a a range of choice is is is actually a good thing in a democracy, not a bad thing. Uh but I also think healthy political parties are a good thing too. No, I I mean I agree I agree with that. I was just very struck by I hadn't heard it described in that way before, Tim. The idea that the stakes feel very high because and in fact Steve you what you were talking about was that negative voting pattern that we're expecting at the election where it's as much about who you want to stop and block as about a positive choice. And that is to do with the policies being m you know, more different. And I mean you say that's positive, but if we have an electoral system where you end up , you know, blocking the blocking that which you fear most I I mean I'm not I I understand what you mean about it's healthy that there's a real choice, but I'm not sure that the the dynamic then becomes that healthy electorally and in a campaign. I mean we yet to see but you know you could have a l you have you could have two opposite project fears, couldn't you? Essentially Yeah I mean that would be uh depressing. And I don't think what um I I think we're all bizarrely in agreement about this. I think it's absolutely essential for each of the political parties to put forward their own coherent, positive set of ideas and the policies that arise from them. But I think the voters will vote tactically, irrespective of that. Because I think the fear of the other will be probably stronger than any uh positive message that I hope each of the parties uh uh conveys at the election. In other words if Labour's message is look uh, we,'re going to be boring, cautious, and not say very much, but you better vote for us because you if not you'll get the other lot in or reform in. Uh Labour will be slaughtered. That wouldn't be good enough. But I think in the the minds of voters, some will say uh we're gonna vote Tory and reform to make sure we keep out Labour and the Greens and all that and Labour and left people will vote Labour or whatever it is tactically to stop reform that I I I think that will be the dynamic in voters' minds. Sorry Tim I I will I we'll let you speak but I can envision right now, I know it's three years to go and all the rest of it, but I can envision panic in the ranks of the Labour campaign uh for example, maybe kind of week four or something, if it's a five, six week campaign. And then literally they sort of press the red emergency button and then the whole campaign becomes you have to stop reform because the world will end. we in these tight elections, you get towards the end, just divert to Project Fear. So I mean I I share your your appetite, Steve, for a campaign that's higher, you know, a bit more high-minded and based around positive policy programmes and all the rest of it. I just think that's not going to happen. I th I I I think it will. I mean you're right, if Labour uh in in dire straits in the election campaign maybe before, that will be the message. It was sort of the message of Keir Starmer's party conference speech uh last autumn. Uh but it th there has to be more to it than that, and I expect there will be in uh Labour's case, whoever's leading it. Um and I I expect that will be the case also with the other parties. It has to be. I mean we're in a sort of we we're not going to discuss the international crisis but we're in an incredibly challenging period and still will be at the general election. And it can't just be these negative messages. But you're right to highlight it. It will be partly that. Tim, sorry, I rudely prevented you from reacting to Steve. To go into the details of my relationship with the leadership of reform over the last um a couple of weeks 'cause I don't want to say they have endorsed my position. I'm not saying that, but they've been very relaxed about my position um with regard to Matt Goodwin. There's been no censorship. The censorship, insofar as it you could call it censorship, has come from the grassroots. I've not felt the leadership has been trying to close me down. I have felt it's been fellow party members. And I don't know whether that's you know most people I think think of it's always the leadership that tries to control parties. Um that's not been my experience within reform generally. I think the members really are the people and I think it was true in the Tory party of old, the Tory party of old, it was a Tory fatal that you know always loyal to the leader, didn't like anyone rocking the boat. I don't know whether this is a right-left difference that survived different permutations of parties, but all the pressure I have felt has been from fellow party members, not from the top. And I don't know, Miranda, Steve, is that is that a right-leftistic difference Or attacking in in sense in a sense somebody inside the fold. And largely people I don't know. You know, I've had a few people who've said to me, Well, I don't think this is wise what you've done. And um, you know, they've done it privately, and a lot of people have said to me, why didn't you do this privately in the first place? Well, it's possible that I did do it privately in the first place. Um but no, it's been it's been you have that immediacy now because of social media. You know, you don't have to wait to hear what fellow party members feel. They are there on Twitter immediately giving you their feedback on what they think you've done. Yeah. It's it's a whole different landscape. Right. We better take a break and then we'll come back uh and uh maybe Steve we can think about when we've been castigated for for disloyalty or or other things. Yummy Okay, we'll take a break now. Calling London's one million small businesses. There's now one place to get free access to all the support you'll need. I need to know where to get support so I can grow my business. I'm looking to increase my customers. I need sales and marketing support. I want to upskill my team to ensure we're more competitive. Whatever your business needs, Grow London Loan Court gives you free access to expert business support designed for small businesses just like yours. Visit grow.london forward slash local to find out more. Funded by UKSBF and supported by the Mayor of London. Need anything from Tesco? Snacks and milk love. How about discounts on the holidays abroad? Don't forget fruit and veg for school. Three nappies for premature babies. And the quiet owling store to shop in peace. Can I get two pounds fifty cinema tickers and Tues days. We know you need more than just groceries from us. We do all this because every little helps. Need anything from Tesco . For further information, visit Tesco PLC.com slash need anything from T esco Okay, welcome back to this episode of Not Another One where we're discussing tribalism in politics and whether it's got worse or whether it's particularly bad moment now. I mean, so I don't know about you two, but I think it's always been there . But perhaps this hyper competitive environment where even the long established parties and I won't say that just the main parties because this also affec think affects the Lib Dems who are, you know, uh not such a large main party but are long established. You know, th this they can't be complacent about their core votes anymore. Are the core votes even something that exists? Certainly, safe seats are much less safe in recent years. They look at the polling , they've got five parties in contention, six parties in Scotland and Wales . I it's a really threatening landscape if you're an established party, isn't it? And maybe and and and also then the challengers in on both left and right, reform and the Greens , that that they they they are sort of very tribal and very loyal because it's like this new movement and as you say, Tim, perhaps not much uh welcome for those sort of being seen to take pot shots inside the tent. It's a it's a it's an interesting new dynamic and I think maybe this that is the reason for this Uber partisanship that you describe. I mean I must say, Steve, and I'm sure you would s would agree with this, is that over the long years that we've been all talking about politics publicly, you always get those from your sort of philosophical side of the argument getting incredibly s oversensitive, I would say, if if the if you're being what they call unhelpful, don't you think? I mean that's always an irritation that you have to try and bat away or politely explain that you'd owe not you know you as a commentator you owe no loyalty to anyone and you'll say what you think. But that's again a different theme. It's a very interesting one, the role of the commentator on politics, the role of a columnist, and the degree to which some people, and it can be either your sources at the very top of a party or or readers who feel that you're coming from a certain point of view and then you say something that disappoints them. There is that sense. But I think that's very different to what's happening now in the dynamics uh of the par ties because when there is a lot of choice for voters and indeed members of parties, um it it becomes empowering. So uh someone put on Twitter the other day or sorry you mean empowering for the voter empowering for and the party member. Uh somebody put on a Twitter the other day a a a clip uh from a Keir Starmer speech in opposition which I know was written by or advised by Peter Mandelson when he was speaking to Morgan McSweeney a lot, where Stummer said, if you don't like what we're doing, you can always go somewhere else to the voters and the membership. Um now that was a sort of Blair technique. You know, you might might not like it, but you've got nowhere else to go. Now they have. Um who are disillusioned uh with the Star leadership have gone to the And Bade Not too has to be very, very careful because our members and normal voters have reform as another option. And so leaders, uh, it's very fashionable for leaders to appear in advertis strong and dominating their parties. But the reality is you can't be that when uh voters and members have choice and that changes the dynamic. I suspect in Tim's case with reform, a lot of the members just happen to be very sympathetic to the figure you are in dispute with and taking sides with him. I don't know or whether they just think you are being disloyal to the wider cause. But um y you know, I I've seen him speak at rallies and and he gets rapturous releases these days. Um so maybe that that's it. You know, party members uh you know, uh the Labour Party in the late seventies eighties, the membership adored Tony Ben. And if anyone criticised him, if there had been Twitter around then there'd have been slaughtered. So um I wonder whether that's part of the dynamic too in the de i d yeah, it definitely is. And the funny thing is, I largely agree with his the central argument in his book. Um but I don't I don't particularly like his tone, that's that's a secondary matter. But the trouble was there were there were exaggerations, so they let's put it no strong more strongly than that, in his book. And I I th I think that matters. Now actually I don't think the central argument was brought in the funny thing is the thing that the points that have been raised in public debate that have been of controversy don't actually really affect his central arguments. So they were unnecessary risks that he to ok. Um and so that's really the defence of him that, you know, i it's not material. Um the the the defence I think that the party member would say was yeah, his I his central argument still matters and don't rock the boat. And so yeah, no, you're you're right, Steve. There is a particular loyalty to him and to his argument, not just the party in this case, which is a fair clarification. I tell you what though, on the on this w on the wider c uh question of, you know, loyalty and accusations of disloyalty and and all of that kind of thing, do you not think, Steve, that I completely agree with you about your analysis of of the dynamic right now? But you know, the Corbinistas also were very dismissive and wan took t took to sort of repelling and ridiculing those in the Labour movement who didn't see things their way as well, right? So it's not peculiar to the sort of hat ed, despised centrists, uh, this this this sort of desire to say , well, you're not you're not part of us anyway. You're not and and you get that within the Tory party, right? I mean, I have literally heard people in the Bad nock era of Tora of the Tory party being dismiss ive of other Tories and saying, well, they're just Lib Dems. And it's like, well this is madness, you know, you've got a problem with people in your party sort of bleeding off to an electoral alternative . You're now explicitly telling them that that's what they are. It just sounds crazy to my to my ears in a competitive environment. But this desire for a sort of for sort of purity tests of reasons. I mean another example, Jacob Rees Morg called Rishi Sunak a socialist. Right, exactly right. But he was in Montgomery And um and yeah, no, you're right. I mentioned the example of Tony Benn and the left were tribally committed to him and loathed his internal opponents, even though they were all part of the Labour Party . The art of leadership is to somehow bind these different wings together and try and form some kind of coherent whole. And that uh various leaders have failed to do that in both the two traditional bigger party story Labour parties for a long time. And the result is an inevitable fracturing because they used to be what Harold Wilson called a broad church in both cases. And that has broken down over recent decades. And as a result, there are consequences. We now have lots of parties. If there were leaders who could do that binding again, under our voting system you would have those two bigger parties battling it out for government. But we don't, and it's very fractured. And it's fractured under this first pass of the post system, basically designed for two parties. So it's a really interesting moment in British politics. None of us know whether it's fleeting or permanent. But I think there used to be leaders and party figures who were willing to accept there were going to be quite big internal differences and that they had to work with them. Now they form new political parties. And and and and and and and the phenomenon of uh sort of depriving the whip uh uh defy depriving MPs of the whip if they object to particular policies has got totally out of hand, hasn't it as well? And and it it's all part of the same sort of syndrome of looking incredibly unconfident in the le in More punishment you've done it. And I don't I I I sort of have mixed views on this 'cause I don't know um it's not every listener would have followed it, but last week a reform housing spokesman was dismissed from um reform. Now he said something very unfortunate. He talked about it was in the context of Grenfell, and he said we all die at some point. And he apologised for the remarks, but Nigel Farage obviously decided it wasn't enough and he sacked him. Now I can see I obviously it was a disgraceful remark and I wouldn't defend it, but is it career ending? And I just think when you're struggling to get people involved in politics and we we know you know none of us want to stand for parliament, I don't think. Um I certainly don't. Um it's it's part of this that makes me very reluctant to stand for parliament because I know that I d I hope I wouldn't say something like that, but I'm capable of saying something stupid. I'm capable of saying something I regret. And to know that you know you could put years into a political career and say something stupid like that that perhaps you didn't mean, and that's it. You're done. And that's all you're ever going to be remembered for. That sort of that sense of discipline is you know, it it doesn't encourage good people to go into politics, I'm afraid. And I don't quite know what I think about it. I'm sure Nigel Farage did the right thing last week in terms of the individual incident, but did he do the right thing in terms of encouraging good people into politics? I think that's a moot question. Isn't it? Well, I dunno. I mean you've got to well, it's a balance, isn't it? You've got to vet your candidates and you've got to make sure that the people that you are promoting to spokesman roles are capable of, for example, getting through a an a a media interview without running off at the mouth and and accidentally insulting a whole a whole uh a whole area of the country that's still scarred by the Grenfell tragedy, for your to your example. I mean y you know that that that's pretty do you not think I mean that that that that that sort of to insult people in that way is a comparison. Particularly if it's the housing group. Particularly if your brief is the housing group. Yeah, maybe. To be to be so to be so sort of caught up in. And also the thing is, I'll tell you what I would say, I don't think it's just it's not a random remark because his argument was you know, regulation has become overweening and uh you know w we've got too many safety regulations because everyone's gonna die at some point. So, you know, why are we trying to make the housing more sa safer? You know, which is it it you know, it revealed a mindset which is going to worry people. Yeah. No, I think you've made As well as being insulting. Do you not think I mean I'd like to withdraw the remarks I made some moments ago and see to you on that. But um You take my point generally though, if I've not got it quite right. I do on this uh on this occasion, maybe as I said Nigel Ford. But th there is a general thing is you are only one saying the wrong thing, particularly when that subject is vogue or, you know, hot you you it's i I it is one of the reasons why I wouldn't go into politics, frankly. And I hope I never would say something like that about Crenfill. I don't think I would. Not at least because I'd be more frightened about what my mum would say, let alone Nigel Farage . But um there is a problem with politics, is you are just in no other job is what can one mistake be quite so final, I don't think . Hmm very interesting. Right, we better take a second break and then we'll come back uh and ponder uh whether whether we've got time in our last bit of the podcast this we ek to drop some dreadful faux pas Steve there's still time there's still time for either you or I to say something appalling. What's left of Al Korea? What's left of Al Koreas? I don't know, Tim. I don't know Tim. Okay, let's take a break. We get it. 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Funded by UKSBF and supported by the Mayor of London. Okay, welcome back to the last bit of the podcast. So we've been talking about this phenomenon of party loyalty and uh you know whether it sort of is healthy at the moment or whether it's be moved over into what Tim has rather delightfully christened uber partisanship . And uh this question I suppose of who does get involved in politics. I mean i i and and and whether the loyalty tests are too much and whether the even Tim, you were suggesting that some of the vetting is too much. I don't know. I think I think part of the thing I know we disagree on this, but part of the thing that was a bit depressing in the years between the Brexit referendum and the UK leaving the U the EU was the degree to which there were kind of purity tests on both sides and the lack of appetite for um, you know, finding a way through some s you know, compromises. And that I think is also when the sort of e expelling people from the cabinet because they didn't sort of see eye to eye with Boris Johnson's get Brexit Done strategy perfect perfectly, sort of became a thing, didn't it? I d I don't know. What's your what's your feeling? Do you think we are slightly stuck now with a with a politics where unity of of viewpoint is sort of priz above perhaps competence and some of the other things that people can bring to the job at the top of politics. Mm-hmm Well that again is a different question to the one we were addressing before because here we're not talking about loyalty to a tribe here. We're talking about loyalty to a cause and that cause being so overwhelming that if you don't abide by whatever the Prime Minister wants to do with that cause, you are out. And that obviously happened with uh uh the Johnson Cummings era of uh Brexit. Um and it didn't of course with Theresa May 'cause she herself was a remainer elected as Prime Minister. So it was a very different p p position with her. I certainly did then. Um but loyalty to a cause is just is quite interesting this discussion because I'm writing a book at the moment on troublemakers in politics, going back to the 19th century, two, two for arch. And it's very, it's hard to measure who are the heroes, whether it's the leaders being pragmatic, struggling with these troublemakers, or troublemakers who are loyal to a cause, whether you agree or disagree with it, they can wreck parties but remain loyal to a cause. And on one level, it's admirable to be committed to principles and convictions. But Britain is a party-based system, and if the parties break down it, everything crumbles. And as I say to some extent, this is what really has been happening since twenty sixteen. The Tories uh broke down uh Brexit, etcetera. But it's because of loyalty to various causes. Yeah, well I think that was that was that was the point implied in my in my uh in in the question that you said disapproved of, Steve. No no no I approved question but I think it's a different question. We are loyal to tribes. Fine, fine, fine, fine. And and loyalty to the cause is is sort sort of t can take precedence sometimes and we've seen that recently and then that's a complication. It's a complication. And I genuinely don't know whether that's healthy or unhealthy. Because it to be honest, it's both. It is healthy for people to have convic tions and principles. And when people are lost in that world of conviction and principles, we can see what happened. Keir Starmer is to some ex some extent an example of that. But as I also said, we are in a party-based system and you have to have boundaries within a party and you have to have values that you can all unite around or else the party's collapse. So it is I think a conundrum this one. It is a conundrum. Well I exhibiting the this behaviour. With the exception of commitments to international law and employment rights based on his past as a lawyer and his upbringing. To argue against values, he says there will be no stama ism and all the rest of it. Right. Whereas actually having values could be, as he is demonstrating with this international crisis, a huge advantage to guiding you towards solutions. But the troublemak ers have values that are unyielding and even if they break parties, they stick to them. And as I say, that is both admirable and problematic. Because presumably that's some of your troublemakers did that. Absolutely. Yeah. It's a real problem. Party based politics. Well w one of the thing one of the things that I hope is possible with reform and time will tell is um I think you know there's a lot of things where it's absolutely clear where reform stands. Um immigration, wokery, climate change. You you're familiar to everyone on this podcast. But actually there's a lot of areas where you can believe in those things and have a very different attitude towards local government or electoral reform or a whole range of other issues, civil liberties perhaps. And I think one of the interesting things is I think part of what the electorate, some in the electorate who agree with Nazar Farage on a lot, but hold back from supporting him is they think that he's not open minded on anything, that he's closed minded, he doesn't listen. And I think one of the interesting things I've been challenging reform to do in the policy process that follows the local elections is show that we don't have, you know, we don't have the same sort of iron fist attitude on some of those secondary questions. And that reform, you know, the likeliest outcome of the next election is some sort of home parliament, I'm sure of it. And all the parties are gonna I think the future of British politics may be lots of cross party deals, you know, after elections. And it's not what I prefer, but I think it's what is a is a high likelihood. And a party that's absolutely definite on everything and doesn't have a sort of more flexible approach on sort of s what I'm what perhaps for wants a better expression I',m calling secondary issues, will struggle to form any coalitions at all or any kind of arrangements, you know, um confidence of supply or whatever. And I think it's going to be an interesting test for reforms development on whether Well that that that's going to be so interesting, isn't it? Because it is in a sense going to become if we carry on in this direction, if this fracturing continues , watching the election campaign is going to be a lot of it about which party has more options to form a government after a result, which makes it very like European politics. And uh do you not think that that that is also then, Steve, where the centre left advantage is gonna lie? Because there's gonna be so Probably. I mean in the sense that in the next Westminster House of Commons after the election, uh there will be uh the Gre ens, Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, all with the scope Plied Cymru, or with the scope to form some kind of governing arrangement. And with on the other side, it's the Tories and Reform, who will have probably just fought a very uh vitriolic election campaign unless Well don't forget the DUP who were so useful to Theresa May. That's a good point. Fundamental to uh uh Theresa May , although of course troublesome. Um but the thing is, I think to go back to one of your earlier points, Mirandi, I think we all agreed the the parties have to put forward their own messages at the election. It'd be really depressing if the whole election is just speculative questions about who you're going to do deals with. Awful. Awful. Yeah. Yeah. And we know very possible. Very possible. Yeah, certainly you can hear the today programme now, you know, so if you're doing this, will you do it with who and I remember, you know, to give one example of how absurd this is, uh the whole of the nineteen eighty seven election I have so uh whenever David Owen and David Steele were interviewed, they were the leaders of the alliance. The only question was who you would do a deal with in a hung parliament. And Thatcher won a line slide. Every single interview had been utterly pointless for them and the listeners and viewers. And so if it's going to be like that, the election will be very depressing and it's up to the party leaders to make sure it isn't like that. I think the media will be obsessed with this questi Because that that's terrible for the voters, isn't it? Because you know, then then you're going into the voting booth and you're sort of voting on vibes essentially. Exactly. And some sort of very, very fuzzy image, particularly perhaps of parties that are less well understood as to what they actually stand for or what their policies are at all. So um the media's job is going to be very important in trying to make clear what platforms are apart from anything else. Can I mention Yeah go on. Can I just mention as an aside um and uh just a point of I don't I try not to make pretty predictions in politics 'cause politics is so unpredictable. But I don't know how to pronounce it. Very wise. Run up you . Is that a rush? Yes, the Pliny Cumry leader, yeah. Yeah. I'm gonna probably be absol utely um r ridiculed by our Welsh listeners for my pronunciation, but I predict he's gonna be a big f big figure in our politics going forward. I think Plyder gonna win a lot of seats and I've done a few I've done a few media g igs with him now, uh Daily Politics, Newsnight. He's a nice guy. In a way that Zack Polansky gives the impression he absolutely hates my guts and probably does. Run or however you pronounce it, he he he's probably as left wing as Zach Polansky, but he's a warmth, you know, he's a former BBZ presenter. I think he's going to be a very serious figure on the left in British politics going forward. I think he might be sustainable, he could be holding twenty, you know, dental MPs for quite some time. He could I think we're gonna be hearing a lot about this man and we'll all have to learn to pronounce his name properly. Um but he's um he's almost like the nightmare left wing candidate for the right. I think he's he's got real principles from a left wing point of view and I think he's got a warmth and a winsomeness that um that a lot of people on the left don't have. You know, even i even I was sort of slightly charmed by him. And um I yeah, a big future a b a big possibil big future possible person in British politics. I think that counts as a prediction, Tim. Yeah to uh the Welsh uh Parliament, Plyde are set to do extremely well, aren't they? And they they they they pipped reform to the post in that uh biologist