Debating the need for a contest

Hello and welcome to Not Another One with me Steve Richards, Tim Montgomery , Ian Martin and Miranda Green, thank you very much for tuning in. And guess what we will be exploring in our time together in this podcast . Since we all last gathered, I think three of you gathered on a very hot weekend to record one. But anyway, even since then , we've had a degree of clarity. It looks almost certain that Andy Bernam will be the next prime minister and he will be that prime minister next month. So we are going to explore the question how ready is he ? Before that though , Ian give us again the details of the Patreon situation . Yes. Well , firstly, a very quick thank to those of you who have signed up . The vast majority actually to our to our premium service and we've got exciting news coming on all of that and we will very soon be able to ensure that premium subscribers get it ad not another one ad free . So if you want to sign up go to not another one politics podcast on Patreon and click one of the two options and thank you very much for supporting us . Okay , and if I remember or one of us remembers, maybe you could give that link again at the end or it will no doubt be on the blurb for the podcast . So how ready is Andy Burnham? You can see a narrative developing that he is far from ready . It's all happening very, very quickly . How outrageous if there isn't a cont est that there isn't one , and we're going to get a prime minister foistered on us who we know nothing about. Now I want to challenge all elements of that thesis very briefly and then you can all disagree with me It seems to me whichever way you approach it , he is relatively ready compared with a lot of prime ministers incoming prime ministers . He has been in terms of experience , a cabinet minister in two different jobs, including the treasury . And then of course famously he has been the mayor of Greater Manchester . He has unlike, say Kiss and by the way, unlike in terms of cabinet experience, Tony Blair, David Cameron , Margaret Thatcher was an education secretary, but ultra loyal to Ted He before she then became Tory leader. Now, of course he hasn't been leader of the opposition. That's not his fault but it's a huge experience to have, but he's had cabinet experience and this mayoral experience . In terms of policy , he has been speaking for a long time about Manchesterism , devolution. I listened back to an interview I did with him and I've put it out on my rock and roll politics podcast . There is a deep and in my view authentic the interview was done before all this leadership frenzy and it was a very relaxed, illuminating interview. He is passionate, I think, about giving power away , and I think there will be early moves in that direction . We know he stated it quite openly that he is in this interview I did with him, he described himself as to the left on economic policy in areas of other things socially conservative . And that will have shifts in economic policy that we can explore, but which he has explored. And we know he's spoken to some great people who will be big players in this administration, Andy Haldate , who was who writes for the FT off of Miranda , who has he's an associate editor here . Many ideas before breakfast, same with Jim O'Neill , who was involved in the great sort of whole Northern Powerhouse experiment and other things as well, both innovators without being reckless . And I could go on about that dimension of Burnham policy. We know he is passionate personally Europe, obviously it didn't come up in the bialection . But we know that that is where he his passion lies in terms of the debate we've all been exploring on the tenth anniversary of Brexit. Now these are just a few examples on health. He talks about his attitude to health reform in the interview I did with him citing his time as health secretary. We know he's committed to a national social care plan. In other words, you can see a kind of active state that Ian and Tim will on the whole disapprove of Miranda might half disapprove of I don't know we'll hear, but what I don't think you can argue is we know nothing about him. He's given no thought to what he would do with power . He doesn't know who his team will be because I think all those things he does know and he's had cabinet experience before and knows how Whitehall works and he knows how power works and doesn't work outside Whitehall. Now this isn't a prediction everything is going to be fantastic. People would be daffed to make that, but I challenge this rolling narrative that no one knows anything about it. I mean, he's just going to stroll into power with a complete ignorance about what he is and what he stands for and whether he's ready. Tim, what do you make of that? There's a better case than I've heard from most Steve by some distance, so you should be in Andy's spinning team, I think. And look, I think we know a lot of where his instincts are and I think you've confirmed that. I think actually he held three cabinet jobs rather than two, didn't he? Because he was Chief Secretary, House Secretary and Culture Secretary. So he certainly has that experience. And I think the executive experience he has as Manchester Mayor is particularly important . But I think what you have confirmed is he has instincts on things like social care, on the economy on public services . I don't think you mentioned other than Europe much about foreign policy and defence. I don't think you really know where he stands on those issues at all. And the very specific one , which is, you know, right at the center of Kier Starber's last few weeks as Prime Minister, whether he's willing to put the money into the defence investment plan or not, is he with Healy or is he with Star mer? We don't know. That seems to be me to be absolutely crucial. And perhaps he'll fill in the gaps in the month or so we have between now and him becoming Prime Minister. But I think is it enough really to have a vague not a vague, let me take the say less pejoratively, to have a sort of outline idea of his values , but so little on policy . And that I think is the problem. You know, and I would say, you know, my party reform , you know, calling for a general election. The last thing reform wants is a general election. No, we are nowhere near ready for a general election and office . And I don't think we should I don't think we should be panglossian about whether Andy Burnham is ready either . Miranda , in terms of and let's be fair about this , we're comparing other incoming prime ministers midterm, because people by definition, if they've been leader of the opposition, have had the space to prepare, some better than others . Kirstama famously not that prepared for government. But I don't know I could pluck any of these contests or incoming prim e ministers midterm. John Major in nineteen ninety , read back at what he said during the leadership campaign and tell me if it told you very much at all. And I could say that about lots of the others who come in in such a context . Or it's a mendacious context like Boris Johnson who towed the leadership contest of the Tory party saying he was going to get us out by the October deadline, the Brexit deadline when everyone knew it was impossible. So I think compared to these people , we know a lot. I mean, I say Ian and it will disagree with a lot, but I don't think you can say we don't know him. Well, I've been become more convinced of something I said at the weekend, which is that he may be about to show us the benefits of somebody being a career politician . And in that sense, I agree with you. So thinking a lot about how unstable and unexpectedly unstable the first two years have been since the july twenty twenty four election , given the lands lide result for labour , I'm quite hopeful of one thing, which is that they might actually be able to have a steadier ship of state going forward because of what we know about Burnham and his ability to know how Whitehall works, but know how politics works as well and have better relations with MP's because that breakdown of relations between Starmer and the Backbenches seemed to , I mean, clearly it was based on some early unforced errors , but also seemed to really stymy them in the sense that they didn't have any discipline and the patronage system didn't work as it should do. And I think Burnham in that sense is better equipped and I'm optimistic in that one respect, for example . I think quite honestly though, Steve, it's a brave argument that you make on these large matters of policy substance because it's really hard to actually find anyone who knows about these particular areas, whether it be future of social care or the details of welfare reform , you know, or how you map that unique set of partnerships between business , the public sector and universities in that work so well in Manchester and sort of how that would work written large across the UK to encourage growth. It's really hard to find anyone at the moment who will answer any of the quest ions . And that does tend to make people nervous . So I really respect your kind of coming in here all guns blazing to say, No this really can be a new start, but I think that there are an unusual number of unanswered questions on the substance. Well, I will challenge you on that in a moment, but let's bring in Ian on the general notion that compared to other incoming midterm prime ministers , he is relatively well prepared and we know relatively speaking quite a lot about him . Yeah, I don't I mean, I think it's a bit of a straw man argument. Who's who's saying we don't know him? I mean, we do know him. He's been as Miranda says that he's been around politics . Well , I don't know. I'm trying to think when I first encountered him, was he he a spad or you know, he's been a spad, he's been a minister . I mean, that's what makes him interesting is he's posing in a really c reative, interesting way as the outsider, but he is a creature of Westminster. Makes him a very, very interesting politician. And you can just see how his colleagues have responded to him. I mean, they're just relieved that he is a politician. You see I do I think they would have been far better advised to have left Monday to Kir stama. And it was I don't think that that picture of them all grinning , clearly seeking jobs was a was a was a wise thing to do, but they're genuinely excited that they've got someone who's a recognizable , known, clever politician. I think it was particularly unseemly of Rachel Reeds actually. I know this other people have noticed this, but really odd that Rachel Reeds wasn't there for Kirsten's goodbye but was there for Andy Burnham's photo opportunity. I think I think that summed up, I'm afraid. It was a Shakespearean day, wasn't it? I mean, look at some of the people in that photo if I could repeat what they've told me they think of Andy Bernard and when power shifts you watch the loads of read ing it's a reasonless business, that's for sure. I thought it was really unseemly them all jostling. Literally jostling, but there we are. Yeah . Sorry that interrupted you . No, I think I think we've already Steve's already agreed to do to tell us what what they were they really think of Andy Bernam as rent for premier status subscribers to not at all Yeah and come back to that 's not that's not my concern about him. I mean , I'm more thinking on something like defense and geopolitics, which regular listeners will know. I can bore for Britain on and I'm perfectly happy to do that over and over again. But I just I don't see anything in his record or stuff that I've heard him say down in the years that tells me that he is that he has that he has a has an outline of a worldview but he's he's a he's a he's, you know, clearly a quick learner and boy he's going to have to learn very fast when goes through the front door at number ten and then the first briefings will be on the nuclear deterrent and the national security situation and he'll he'll he'll he'll have to trade up. I've also I mean we're going to say that we've become increasingly convinced that we were right in what we said over the weekend . I think they're most interesting always like that to be fair, but anyway we're usually very hard, usually very self critical. But I do think in our conversation the other day and I'm increasingly convinced that he will go for an early general election because if you think about it, he didn't he didn't expect to be Prime Minister now , and he lived for a long time knowing that it might it was his big ambition but it might not happen and circumstances might conspire against him kept losing the leadership . So in a way this, is a bonus and he's managed to get there . So if he goes to the country, loses narrowly or something goes wrong , you could say it's a humiliation, but actually I think, he's he's shown that he understands this is a positive, I think, that he understands what James Kangusurium in his substack described, I think as the agency the agency dynamic or something similar to that, which is why voters , why are voters really unhappy ? They feel in many respects and this is partly to do with digital and the way the world is changing and the world since the financial crisis, they feel a lack of agency . They feel things are not getting better and life is increasingly difficult to affect or impact or manage. So they respond positively to politicians who appear to have agency , hence Trump. And agency can just be breaking the rules, being dynamic, not playing the media's game . Now Burnham to his credit , sometimes seen by a lot of people who's a very shallow second tier new labor figure, actually turns up and produces one of the great plays of contemporary politics or politics this century in the UK goes for the by election, wins and is now about to become Prime Minister. So in those circumstances I would be I'll be surprised if he doesn't think, well, why not go for an early election? And that's probably his best and only chance . And he stands a pretty good chance, I think, of killing off the green vote or getting enough of the green vote back, getting floating voters interested and getting up to the low thirties. And as Tim said, it is Nigel Farage's nightmare. It's also the nightmare of the not great for the Conservative Party either . So in a roundabout way, Steve, I haven't really answered the questions about what he's not or what I think he's ready or not ready for, but I think politically he now has a great opportunity in front of him, but it's time limited because this time next year if he waits he'll be as unpopular as the rest . So let's explore some of the ways you came back on me. And one is in this area of policy . Now the issue here really, I think, is not that we don't know what his policy positions are , but they are ambitious in an era where there's no money . So he will have some tough calls to make , but I think, for example, we know take the shambles of high speed railways, a high speed rail , which highlight many of the flaws with the British state and he coming from Manchester is deeply aware of what went wrong . I think and then he and Andy Street , the then mayor of the West Midlands came up with a scheme to get the thing up to Manchester . Now that tells us a lot about him. A, his willingness to work with politicians from other parties, which he's made a great thing of , including the Greens, by the way , but also his ambition, not scrap high speed rail, but let's find a way of getting it done with maximum efficiency . We know what he thinks about social care because he came up with his own policy, which incidentally would have been a good one, but it got slaughtered in the election, came a death tax and so on. But we know what he wants and we've heard him say he was very disappointed when that was kicked into the long grass at the start of this government . We heard him express sympathy with John Heley . But the three things I've just outlined, which I think he passionately, certainly the first, I know he's passionate about the first two . He can't articulate yet without being able to explain where the money's going to come from. And that applies to a lot of things, which is why I think early on things like devolution and so on might be a higher focus. I'm just guessing in terms of what will be as immediate prior ities because the financial implications are less daunting . But I don't think we know what he wants. He is very ambitious in areas to do with public services and to use the Tory phrase levelling up. And I think it is interesting. I was on with Michael Goe for an hour on a program the other day . And of course, he worked with Andy Holden. Andy Holden said to Michael Gove, to make this work, we're going to need billions . And the then Chancellor Rishi Sunak wasn't going to give him that . But so these are the areas which he's interested in, but he's not going to announce it and annou nced going they to're spend billions when he doesn't know how to pay for it because then you're in market explosion territory. So you're going to that's a lot that's so interesting that's so interesting, isn't it? Because your two examples of previous Handover PM's midterm, John Major and Gordon Brown, they both had been Chancellor . And isn't that therefore quite different? So until we know who Burnham's Chancellor of the Exchequer is it's really hard to see how these large ambitions become reality because we don't know about that crucial choice on the economy whereas with Gordon Brown and with John Major, they had come they'd come a few steps down Downing Street from number eleven to number ten and you know, had been looking at the books only too closely up to that moment. So it's quite different from that point of view as well, isn't it? Yeah, but whoever is going to be Chancellor walks in with the same constraints , which is why now he can't say the future chancellor can't say like Andy Burnham can't say oh yeah, yeah, high speed rail to manage it. Yeah, off we go, national social care scheme tomorrow . What was the other example I gave anywhere leveling up or his equivalent term? I think Steve Ducking Miranda's good question because I frankly will be enormously reassured if the chancellor is West Streeting. I think West Streeting is much more likely to look at spending restraint to pay for some of the projects that you've mentioned . Whereas if Ed Milliban becomes Prime Minister , you know , Annie Bernam has spoken very positively about a wealth tax in the past. Are we going to go down that avenue? So the fiscal restraints might be the same. You're right , but how do you get out of them? One way is spending restraint, the other is higher taxes. And I think the choice of the Chancellor may well be a defining choice for an Andy Bernam government. And I agree not knowing that I know he's giving a speech on the economy in a week's time. So perhaps we'll know an awful lot more then, but that choice could well define the Bernam administration. I think you are both right and wrong in I think whoever gets it there will be a radicalism which will mark H . So if you take West Streeting, for example, he's proposed that capital should be treated in the same way as income. So capital gains tax should mirror income tax. Get luck with that. Well that,'s from that . Okay, that's where streeting. He said some other radical things with crucial carve outs, by the way, the way streeting proposes is actually to have carve out for certain categories of people including entrepreneurs. So I think we should send them a copy of Nigel Lawson's view from number eleven. Once you start to carve out like that, you rapidly create a mess of disincentives. I mean, he's also going to have to if he is Chancellor and I hope that he's Chancellor rather than Ed Milliband, he's going to have to get in a car fairly quickly and go and see institutions get to know the Bank of England . It's not it's not his domain, it's not his area of expertise. He's a very smart guy, we're streeting, but he will have just as Andy Bernam will have a collision with reality on national security, which I hope he rises to, we're streeting is going to encounter a whole world of of finance and international finance that is not his stick at all. So if he if he thinks that we're going to get we're going to increase investment into this country by taxing capital in the way that you described that is absolutely nuts . Okay, well we'll have time to look at the specifics when we know what they are. I will make this general observation and this is to take a break by the way then we're going to take a break. Nothing personal to Ian and Tim , but I hope the choice of Chancellor is not made in a way that pleases them or seeks to please them. For this reason, every labour government seeks to reassure orthodoxy, whether it's media orthodoxy , economic orthodoxy , and it never works and they soon turn on them. Rachel Reeves ached to please what Tim and Ian partly kind of represent , you know, they ached to get the approval of the Times newspaper aped. That was what the winter fuel payment was all about reassurance. Look how tough I'm going to be on spending and it always goes wrong . So it is a test and I hope he meets it by being bold. But as I say, the definition of bold could be all kinds of different people policies. But let's take a break and move on to another dimension of all of this. Welcome back where we are posing the question is Andy Burnham ready? By the way, of course, although I'm putting the case that compared with a lot of prime ministers he is , on the most fundamental, of course he can't be. I mean it is the most titanic job looking at the hours Kirstama worked and the hours any assiduous prime minister must work and the demands and I was just thinking of Kirstarma at Checkers that day John Hey resigned trying to prepare for how he dealt with the fallout from the by election. Then there's a resignation, then you've got Trump. I mean, it is a nightmare. But one clear difference and I want to pose this question, I think we all agree it will be a difference is how important is this? I've discussed this before and I think you've all agreed with me, and I think Ian has referenced it today . He is a really good communicator, Andy Burnham , and how significant is so for example, those social media pieces to camera he did during the by election, I think he should carry on doing as Prime Minister virtually every day because one of the problems with Kirst arma and other recent Prime Ministers is they haven't been able to connect what they're doing with voters' experiences . Tim, how important is this ? The capacity I, think you agree he's a good communicator. How big a change is this or is this a sort of the shallow dimension of politics? Cards on the table. I don't think it's shallow. I think it is fundamental , but over to you. I don't quite know when the line was crossed, Steve , but I would definitely say now being able to communicate on social media directly to people is now more important than your mainstream media game. Mainstream media is still very powerful and it 's still perhaps at the top of the food chain and so it influences opinion down stream. But I think Trump has shown it, you know, his ability to communicate directly with people. And Nigel Farage when he talks about what he learned from American politics, he says, you know, it's the ability to invest in social media, good videos , short videos , you know, this way of communicating directly with voters. I know just so many younger people in particular. You know, they don't watch mainstream news. All they get from is these little videos, these little sound bites. And so if you are good at those , it doesn't insulate you from political failure, but it gives you a massive head start. And let's face it, Kystamer was appalling at this. He couldn't communicate. And I think you're right to say if he does these make a field videos on a daily basis, it'll give his premiership a lot of buoyancy at the beginning because if he's explaining to people on a regular basis why he's doing what he's doing in his own words and sounding natural, that will help an awful awful lot . He has to be authentic though and if he starts sort of sounding like a government minister. And you look back there are reasons why the Labour Party have rejected him in the past. There were times when he was defending the mid class hospital failure, for example. There have been times when he retreated very much behind a ministerial brief. And so I think part of my question, Mark is the social media he's been displaying recently has been very good. But he can't become a minister again. You know, he has to be that Andy Burnham on the campaign trail that people in Maker Field found so persuasive. Ian, how important do you think communication is and will be. I mean, obviously you're going to disagree with a lot of what he is probably going to do , but is it your sense that his capacity to communicate be a real strength with the wider electorate . Yeah, it is. I mean, I agree and I said at the beginning I mapped out what I think is a path to him being a you know him enjoying a considerable amount of success . And he's also I mean, if you noticed , if you notice the way in which he entered the chamber the other day and someone shouted out, he's not the Messiah and he said he said I'm a I'm a naughty boy, which is clever which is, you know, obviously a film reference, Monty Python. And it says Well, hang hang on. He didn't say I'm a naughty boy. He just said naughty boy, which is even clearer because you don't want to clip if you're saying I'm a naughty boy We'll have to check we'll have to check the hands out because I saw it written both ways. But anyway, either either way it's a good gag and he did it in a relaxed and you know in a relaxed way and again you can just see his party being relieved that they've got someone who can who can communicate. I'm not doubting any of that , but this radicalism I hear of Steve, I mean, if there's a flip side of the argument, I've explained how I think it can go right . There is a window in which the writers split and he gets bounce honeymoon and he gets up into the low thirties and says I'm the person who can stop Madejal Farage ever becoming Prime Minister and put this country on a different path and he gets thirty three, thirty four percent of the vote and he wins. However, I'm not predicting that. I'm not saying that's guaranteed. I'm just saying that there's a clear opportunity for that . There's another scenario which is that and this is what I've thought watching the tail end of the by election and people bidding for jobs and some of the chatter about how radical he's going to be. And I think there's a danger that Labour has the Labour family has been living a bit of a fantasy in Makerfield world for the last few weeks and months and found it quite enjoyable . For the first time in a long time or first time in two years they're doing something that's popular and I think in the way that the Labour Party is which is quite sentimental in a way that the Tory Party is and likes to believe that its views are more widely shared in the country than they actually are. I think that is now going to license quite a lot of radicalism which they won't really get away with it from the electorates. Although they could well hold on a second. You could argue in the exact opposite that Makerfield was far from being sentimental, say, I don't know, picking a very rock solid North London labour seat, not that they're rock solid at the moment . It was one of Reform's target seats and actually I think what has been underestimated in all of this is the deaf way it has happened. I mean, if you go back a couple of months , people were saying, well, if they want to get rid of Kisum, who the hell? And lots of people said it can't be Ed Miller Bann, he lost an election, it can't be Angela Arena for the reasons that are familiar . What about Elmy Burnham, well, he can't win a seat. And here he is back in the House of Commons, having actually taken on a really challenging seat. I mean , there's loads of labour MP's who told me he'll lose it. So yeah, Miranda may have a different perspective, but I'm not I'm not disagreeing with that. And I said earlier earlier in the episode , I'm acknowledging it. It's an extraordinary piece of politics and it's and you can tell people excited are to see something working and it's, you know , but I'm just asking you, is there not is there not a danger thinking about the non or centre left parts of the country looking at this , thinking okay fine . Now then he starts to act and his policies are radical and they're radical on tax which we're told we're told to expect radical ch anges on tax like capital gains taxes , presumably some other higher taxes as well. Well, he's already talked about he seems to be committed to fifty p fifty p band and then to some kind of ten pie stcearter rate. We'll see, I mean, good luck in negotiations with the Treasury again I'm just asking, do you not think that can you not see that there is a there is an equal danger for him with the aspirational parts of the electorate thinking right, okay, you've just got in and you're Label was elected on a specific manifesto in twenty four. And now because you're getting carried away with how popular you are, you're going to come in and make a raft of what could be very unpopular tax changes. Well, if you failed very badly wrong, couldn't it? Yeah, of course. could It all implode very quickly. I mean these are , you know , high stakes times in British politics. It could go wrong for any incoming ime Prister Min and new Chancellor, given the fragility of the economy and the mood of the electorate, it could all be a disaster . But I still challenge the assumption that it will be and some of the other orthodoxies whirling around at the moment . And I dispute this idea that what he stands for doesn't meet those who aspire . But I think we better take a break and come back for one other key question whirling around at the moment. Yeah, I wanted to say something on my communication. I'm sorry but it's absolutely fine . Let's take a break and yeah yeah, okay Welcome back to the final part of this edition of Not another one . a In moment , I want to explore the immediate. We've kind of leapt ahead a couple of hurdles to looking at what or if Annie Burnham is ready. But there's one before that which is whether we or us for anyway think, there should be a contest in the interests of scrutinizing him and the wider country. But Miranda, you wanted to come back on the communication point . Yeah, because it's such a key part of what he's been selling to his party for the last sort of few months while the discontent with Kirstar's premiership built. Because, you know, we 're sort of used to this theory that the pendulum swings between a sober serious MP , which was clearly the kind of sales pitch for Ki Starmer and someone with charisma and you know some sort of exeal . And we you' knowre, back after such a short time with that pendulum having swung inside the Labour Banks to Burnham. And I think that is a huge advantage for him . But as I think , you know, you guys have also been sort of debating already. The problem is that you can't, you know, governing is not the same as campaigning. And in so many senses, those little social media videos that he's been doing . They are brilliant. He's incredibly good at it, and he does come across as completely authentic and relatively normal, which is quite rare in politics anyway. But to governors to choose and once he starts making difficult decisions and making choices in this kind of fiscally straightened environment where inevitably some of the decisions are going to alienate some chunks of the population . That stick is much, much harder to pull off. And every single prime minister right back to the time of Tony Blair has had, you know, communications people around them who've sought out some way of communicating in an unmediated way with the public . You know, pushing people like us right out of the conversation so it's a direct conversation between the leader and the voting public . The fact that you have that now in social media, of course, is great when everything's going great , but that also becomes a problem for you once your decisions are unpopular. So even that sort of point of great advantage that he has of having established this direct communication line with the public can rebound on him if things go wrong I disagree briefly in that I think it becomes more important to communicate when you're having to take tough decisions. And just constantly try to explain why you are having to take them . Because I agree with Ian, he will have to take many tough decisions and some of them quite early on. One of the reasons Kier Stamer was going to put the case for staying on is he's already been battered by taking tough decisions. Let him take the ones coming up this autumn before someone else comes in. But so Andy Bern will have to do that, but I think it really helps if you can try at least to explain to this angry electorate why you are doing it and to what end. But I just wanted to get your take because it is kind of running as a theme . Tim, do you think it would benefit Burnham, the country as a whole, if there's a leadership contest, if Darren Jones contested, I personally don't know the numbers actually, but what do you reckon? Coronational contest, what's best for Britain? You sound like you're doing your own social media video now I think it's very important we have at least the month that I think we do have for Andy Bonan to speak to the country, to speak to his party , to sort of set out some more detail on his policy. And the other thing I was watching the Kirstarmer resignation on Monday and I was watching all the faces of his gathered staff at the corner of the Downing Stre ets. And I think we have to remember that we're not just talking about a change of prime minister. We are actually talking about a change of administration . And I certainly knew this from the Tory years . When the Prime Minister's changed, the discontinu ity in Danish was always too great for me. Too many advisors were sorting like they were only in the pocket of the leader. They weren't like conservative or labour advisers. I think Andy Berlin at least having a month to make sure that he has the best advisers whether there's a proper interview or selection process that he has time to ensure that where people can offer continuity, not just at ministerial level, but special advis or level, that is given. You know, all every single prime minister, I think who's been in office in recent years , will be better now than when they started. And the same is true of most advisers. And the thing that worries me about this constant change in administrations, constant change in prime ministers is the learning curve process starts all over again . And that is a dangerous thing. And so whether it's a coronation or whatever, then having a, you know, having what do the Americans call it, the transition period between election and coming to office, that transition period used wisely. That's what I most want to see Andy Burnham having over the next month or so Can you think of leadership contests? And I say this reluctantly because I'm a huge fan of endless debate and including internal debate. But I remember Tony Barn when he contested the nineteen eighty one Deputy Leadership Contest with Dennis Healy. He said, I think you're fine. This will be a healing process . Well, by the end of it, Labour had a six month civil war and were forty points behind your polls. Then you think of Truss versus SunAc and that sort of mad contest and the Johnson one with all those candidates with Rory Stewart saying, Come and join me, I'm hugging a tree in Regents Park. I mean they tend , you know, we say they're important and they should be, but they're not, are they? Yeah, fair point. I mean, I choose No, you got me there with Rory Stewart. I just took that ridiculous period. But I just tie off in the middle of the debate and sort of ostentatiously was all a bit like panto rather than politics. Yeah. I mean, I would I would always choose despite all the reservations which you map out there, Steve, I would always choose contest over coronation because I just I just think you I think it makes it makes sense to try and learn what someone's about, what they're what they stand for . And despite you saying Steve that we know and I agree with you in terms of a lot of his instincts , there is stuff I'd like to hear him talk about, which is, you know, defense and foreign affairs, the Union , which I'm really worried about in these circumstances and there's a bit of an opportunity for him . But let's, you know, I don't really know what his views are. If he will he'll do something terrible to the Union if his response is more devolution for Scotland . Because his response should be sort of a Scottish Labour MP about it, his response should be what you're talking about , you had have you tons of powers, far more powers than I had as Metro Mayor of Manchester. Look at the mess you've made of it. I'm perfectly up for cooperating with you try and improve things. But if he just gets if he sees Scotland as an extension of the English devolved local superlocal local government issue, he'll come he'll come acroper on the Union. So I would be worried about , you know, about all of that. But it's we can we can talk about this , you know, as long as we like, but barring some kind of fluke, there isn't going to be a contest, is there? No doubt. It's essentially it's been settled. It's been decided. And in those circumstances my concern is, I mean, I really didn't like this idea that we're going to have to wait three months that we're going to have a coronation that lasted three months. Now there's some confusion about whether that was Team Burnham asking for it or not. I mean, there is there's a bitter argument about this, but if it was the case that they were saying the King of the North advances on London to remove the king and then says to the old king, would you mind hanging about for three months while we was too thrilled with that notion . But we've ended up in we've ended up, I'm sure it's resolvable, but we've ended up in a difficult situation witnessed this defense investment plan and what's about to happen with the NATO summit where it seem s at the time of recording that number ten is determined to charge ahead and announce it, which is completely nuts because it's going to have to be torn up. This is essentially the plan which John Heyle resigned over. And we know that there's likely to be a new defense secretary. Well, maybe it will be Dan Jarvis who stays in place, but there's a good chance there will be a new defence secretary, potentially even John Healey going back to the Ministry of Defence in a month or so's time . And in those circumstances , Kirstama should not be making major policy and geopolitical decisions which might have to be undone by his successor. So we end up with a bit of a mess, I think . Although I mean as things stand , he's going to be prime minister by mid July at the latest. If there isn't a contest, probably even if there is, but I agree with you. I don't think there will be. Miranda, do you think there should be ? I have no appetite for one, Steve, and much like you, I surprise myself here because I usually can't get enough of this stuff and I just can't face it. And I think the country probably feels that as well. And to make the point in a slightly more serious way, you know, a lot of the complaints about the Starmer Premiership have been this sense of a vacuum at the centre and decisions taking far too long and lack of clarity and lack of direction enough already. You know, I think they need to move forward at speed and I think a contest , you know, clearly it would be much better if there was clarity on some of these big issues, but I think that pushing ahead is the letter of two evils in this situation by far. Now rather like John Major at the start of the nineteen ninety Leadership Contest, I've got to go to the dentist so you're just talking horse there. Yeah I'm going to be the one saying I'm basically going to win it once I've recovered from the dental appointment . But Ian, do you want to remind everyone again about Patreon and the link? Yes , so become a premier subscriber to Not Another One on Patreon. Go to Not Another One List called podcast and seven pounds for the premium version . Also very welcome if you go for the standard tier as well, all supports. Welcome. We're really gratified by the number of people who've signed up and we'll soon be well in the next few weeks you'll be able to get not another one ad free and there will be some further bonus features which we will talk about the next few weeks . Okay, brilliant. Well look, thank you for listening . Thank you for subscribing to Patreon and thank you, Miranda and Tim . I'm going to the dentist . There's a metaphor in there somewhere, but anyway