Future of party leadership

Hello and welcome to Not Another One. An all male addition of Not Another One. There we've poor Miranda is a little bit under the weather, so she can't um join us, but I'm here. Steve is here. Good afternoon, Steve. I Tim. I think we should say about Miranda. It's not just ill, she's lost her voice. And you could be ill. You could be ill and do a podcast, but you can't do a podcast if you've lost your voice. No This is this is why we should probably have had a YouTube edition, 'cause you would at least have seen her, but uh maybe we Don't want to see her when she's on w she would want us to see her. And Ian, welcome to you. And and and um Can I just say I I feel like almost like a dad towards you this last weekend because I w I watched you far from um I actually don't I went to Anfield on a Saturday for reasons I won't um expound upon. But um I wasn't able to attend your defence conference, but I saw the coverage of it. I saw the extent of military personnel and political leaders from around the world that you assembled for the London Defence Conference. And I thought that's my year. But I I hope you know it's it's an amazing thing you are building. And I think the best years are ahead. But W you must be exhausted because these things always are as exhausting, but Was it as good inside as it looked? From the from the outside. Thank you, Tim. That's that it's so that's so kind. And I was very very touched by your um messages over the weekend of encouragement. And then yeah, you're right. I mean it did get it got a lot of coverage and um Yeah, when you do these things and it it's it's it's down to this extraordinary group, this team that we've uh that we have that runs the London Defence Conference, and they worked so hard and they put so much into it. And it was it was a new venue and there was all sorts of it. Um stuff that was difficult to manage, but they did a did the most fantastic job and the feedback has been really, really positive, uh from foreign delegations, governments, um academics, media. and um and from industry as well. So yeah, if it it it felt uh like a big step up for the London Defence Conference and then We've all we're all back in the office and already starting work on uh on on year Yeah, five. And it's all it's also there's there's a huge amount of interest in defence. I wish we'll come on to that in a moment, but just sort of the personal I I think I message you in sensible hours, you know. And then I think you you messaged me sort of Thank you. Uh at about two A. M or something. And I imagine you were you were going to sleep. You probably weren't sleeping very well because lots of thoughts about run through you when you organized something's bigger than this and you were probably up at six. Um well obviously missing Miranda and you must be absolutely exhausted. Yes, take a toll. Yes. I to yeah, I took I took um I took most of what what day is it? I took most of Monday off and uh and just try to decompress but there are obviously lots of messages from people and um gratifyingly it was very it was very positive. In a in a way, I wish there wasn't so much interest in defence because uh you know, I wish I was organizing the London Peace Conference and rather than you know London Defence Conference. But that's kind of the world we we live in. And the whole as I emphasised at the conference, the reason we're doing this is to try and help Create uh deterrents. I mean that's the point of it. It's not it's not a conference run by people who are seeking conflict. The point is the avoidance of conflict. Peace through strength as the old um. Pete Hagsith will be very disappointed with that sort of that woundish attitude towards uh defence. I actually I think uh Steve, I don't know whether you remember this from Tory party conference days. But I claim a lot of credit for giving Ian the stamina he's had for this London Defence Conference. Because Do you remember Ian? We decided I remember the look that you gave me, I decided that Said of home as well as running the website of the Tory Conference will produce a daily newspaper. Sixteen pages. The two that I don't know whether we slept at all that week. No. I d I I'm surprised our friendship survived it, but it was fabulous experience. It was it was basically it was I don't remember you describing it as fabulous at the time. Some of the language that you used uh in the early hours when I was complaining about a headline or a photograph was was not so uh and I'm surprised we're still even talking. to each other but it was uh Well Steve Steve you know Steve likes music and and you know knows a lot about music. It it was it was a it was a fabulous experience and it had a kind of punk Energy. The idea for I remember being arrested because of my newsletter. I you know, Tory conferences. Uh your d I remember the conservative home daily newsletter. Uh And uh it was another excellent innovation. By the way, while we're talking about our various personal initiatives, my next live show, Rock and Roll Policy. I must say this because it's a good it's gonna be a good one. It's at King's Place on May the eleventh. Um which is uh days after the elections, the Monday after the May elections. And I think that day itself will be a day of epic political drama. The Monday and so do come along at King's Place. There's one before that, actually, on April the twenty sixth on the Saturday night of the Cambridge Book Festival. But the election special is on uh May the eleventh. That's the that that's s the segue into those um promotions, Steve, wasn't even subtle, was it? We' we're we're gonna get down to to business now because otherwise Miranda will never trust boys to run the podcast uh again. Um but just as you don't know, we're gonna have one of our little tapas editions today. We're gonna return to the defence issue. for a little while. We're then gonna talk about the defeat. Not just the defeat, the absolute destruction of Auburn in Hungary. And then as Steve has just suggested, enormously important elections around the corner. And we'll just sort of do a little sort of landscape overview of Uh what's coming up. But Ian, um I don't know whether you felt pleased or annoyed that um we're recording on Tuesday, we had uh George Robertson, the former Secretary General of NATO. Basically not uh just attacking or criticising the government. They but a two footed tackle and the defence of The their their commitment to the defense. And of course this isn't just the talk the the Labour Party. This has been an issue that's been coming for a long time. We do not have Anything like the m army that I think we thought we have. Um how How big a deal do you think this intervention was? I think it's um I think it's a huge deal. I'd I I'd be fascinated to see what you and Steve make about it uh make of it and whether or not you think that this is gonna cut through. um to the public and whether it will have a political impact. Several things to say about it. It um And I interviewed George Robertson on stage at another L V C event back. before the turn of the year and he was growing frustrated, but um was delivering his uh you know was was you could say was um you know sort of hold you know holding back somewhat. This time he's clearly just decided he's had enough. and he's decided to go for it. Other other things that are notable about it is that this is during a local election and during the campaign and during the Scottish um and Welsh campaigns and George Roberton is a is a you know is a la Labor man to his fingertips. So for him to feel that he has to say this uh is uh just t tells you how serious the situation is. And the situation is as follows. But it's essentially you have the defence investment plan, the big kind of ten year spending plan stuck with the Treasury, with it but despite what the government is saying in public that it's being worked on. It's now months late. It was due in September. It's been delayed. Uh, John John Healy, you know, who I interviewed at the at the at the LDC, says that it's coming and says we are we're we're ready as a country. But I gotta tell you, there's the the response from industry and from people who work in defence directly. I mean, there is there's something close to despair and quite a lot of anger. So I think George Robertson has just decided Another Enough is enough. And he's spoken in really, really robust direct terms that will um I think well let's see, but we'll astonish number ten and the treasury. He Ian is right, he's a Labour man, but I do now associate him with the d defence course, you know, ever since he became Secretary General of NATO. He he clearly believes in this issue. W Will he be listened to amongst the Labour family? Do you think it's just the intervention of the scale and the impact that Ian describes? Yeah, let me give you the dispassionate political analysis and then if I might I'll say whether I agree with uh George or not. Dispassionate political analysis, yes, I agree. uh with Ian on its significance. Here is someone uh uh who is absolutely labor to his fingertips, who is immersed in defence, who was commissioned to do the strategic defense review, who is a a restrained political figure. So restrained political figures have the advantage of when they do uh make a big noise it carries uh because it's not in character. Uh, and I have known him uh many years, sometimes socially as well as through our relationship as um a and he would have given a lot of thought about doing this in the way that he has now. So I think it will cut through. I think it tells a wider story about Kirstama and the frustrations with his leadership in that he tends to think If something is said. It has sort of happened. And this is not just in uh defense. I know people just to give another example who are concerned, say, about high speed rail, then one bumped into Keir Starmer to do and transport space. So I'm really worried about the chaos of H S two. It's not even gonna get used, and Keir said, We've got it all under control. It's all sorted. Um, and you can look at this in a range of different Areas um where Uh the ri you you the I don't think he is trying to deceive or anything Kislama when he says, you know, we've got all this under control. I think he thinks that it is. So that's my kind of dispassionate analysis. I think it will make an impact and and will continue to do so. Um Whether I fully agree with this, I mean so for example, you could have an NHS specialist say we s need even more funds. We might have had a lot, but we need more. You could have a university specialist crying out, they're all about to go bankrupt. We need more Money. And so I understand the Treasury uh dilemma and the demands. Uh you you if you were where streeting you could say, what about social care? We're committed to a social care service. Where's the money gonna come from? And all of these are priorities. And uh the One, we've talked about this before about defense which I find difficult to agree with. is this is the one that apparently gets no questions asked, a percentage of GDP. And my only concern is not an assessment about the absolute centrality of security and deterrent, et cetera. Uh it's that every halpeny of public spending is well spent. And I am not sure that by committing Yeah. And so I continue so so I don't wholly agree with George Robertson? But I hugely respect him and think it will make an impact. Well what I want to say uh to you, Steve, it's you, myself and Ian will probably have different views about the amount of money we'd ultimately spend on uh defence. Um the Tory in me will still like to you know, I love tanks and missiles and all that, but um I probably shouldn't say that out loud. Um but you are a sceptic on on a lot of this. You you you you know, you are a Labour uh sort of man on this issue, not on every issue I know, but You you're you you get you you're a man of public service investment, you know, that's the priority of the British people. It clearly is according to all opinion polls. But Just been through a period and understandably the focus has been on Well looks like the increasing madness of Donald Trump. But there's another story, isn't there? Is that for weeks we've talked about HMS Dragon. The one ship that we seem to be able to deploy And it was weeks late and then it didn't even turn up because it couldn't even get its internal Fresh water. Operation for sales. We we we can't defend the UK against a basic drone attack. We couldn't launch we've learned in the last few days. Any kind of serious expedition overseas. This isn't about hitting Not point five f five percent or what's that? This is about People uh have seen that actually We are threadbare. We cannot defend ourselves. This is you know, we have hospitals. I hear what you're saying. We have schools. We have w we don't seem to really have a military. And it's strange, isn't it? It's I accept that premise absolutely. So here's where I come to on the state of public services. I am uh a believer in uh the state delivery of public services and that every single penny must be accounted for. And I agree with you that uh defense has uh suffered from cut after cut after cut uh for many years. Uh but then you see you mentioned drones. The strategic defense review came out just before Ukraine hit Russia very effectively with drones, which cost hardly any money at all. And that raised the whole question about um whether this is a kind of new form of warfare and how you as you say, how you defend yourself uh from it. I find the current Iranian situation, Trump is not gonna send in averted commas boots on the ground. And yet I read what Britain needs, of course, along with all these other things, and many more boots on the ground, even though they're not going to send them anywhere uh in the foreseeable future. So I just want I want the level of scrutiny what the money is spent on. to be as up as it is on health, transport and all the rest of it. And my worry is with an overall number. You get the number first and then spend it. Yeah, yeah, uh and I and Yeah, and I've uh uh fair enough. Yeah, uh and you've made that point well. Um before we wrap up this session, you've just been at your defence conference, and I'm sure you you had all these international guests and I'm sure they were very polite, or maybe they weren't, you know, you you were the host What's the rest of the world saying to you over those canopies and uh glasses of chilled wine about Britain? Are they worried? Are they frightened? Are they furious? Or don't they think we matter at all anymore so they don't care? What' what's the mood? Uh baffled and w worried. Uh, not so much furious, but I mean it's people have a certain expectation of Britain. I mean we are, along with France, one of the two still one of the two major defence powers in in Europe because we have We have a nuclear Nuclear deterrent. But I think we're sure that works, by the way. Yeah. I but I think I think the the of course it's very it's very stretched and And and the reason I mean that's another reason that the percentage actually matters, 'cause within the two point four percent already, zero point seven percent of that is the nuclear deterrent. So you think of conventional forces we actually We sp we spend far too l we spend far too little. People are worried and uh the the reason that number matters And in terms of our um you know uh trust of our allies is that we signed up to it. The Prime Minister went to the summit in The Hague and if it the time to say I don't believe in percentages And I think that's too high or I'm not gonna get boxed in with a with a with a commitment. was in June and J what July last year during the NATO summit. That's not what happened. The government signed a piece of paper, held it up. And that we were signing up to this commitment, three point five percent plus one point five percent um five percent in total on defence and national resilience. And We are but we are mild there's no plan yet as it stands to get there. So our allies are obviously deeply concerned and there's an economic There's an economic component I would encourage people to think about. If you look at the questions that are now being asked about Britain's commitments in the Gulf, where we have, let's be honest, run down our deployments and limited the scope of what we can do. We also need Those sovereign wealth funds, it's a key part of the government's plans, of any government's plans to get them to invest in the UK. And the trade was always right, they have obviously lots of oil wealth and gas wealth. They want to invest they want to invest it in London. But there's the security bargain as well. So us having How can you put it politely let down to a certain extent our Gulf allies has an economic cost as well. So I think The entire approach is ultimately very short sized. Look, we're still Ultimately maybe we disagree disagree on this, but uh as George Robertson says, we are in a situation where the welfare budget is carries on going through the roof and has done since Covid. It's a cross party failure. Those numbers keep on going up. And as reported by Sky News this morning, actually on the current numbers you have to have defence cuts of three point five billion in year. This is a bizarre, ludicrous situation. I mean what I would hope will happen. And uh Kemi Badalock said it at the London Defence Conference and the Liberal Democrats who were there said it and have David said it since. This is too important need some kind of cross party discussion about this. If Labour backbenches won't vote for extra defense spending and won't vote for what's required, which may be defence bonds or it may even be um cuts to welfare, um or control of the welfare budget to spend on defence and national security, then there's gonna have to be some sort of cross party, non party effort. The Prime Minister's uh rejected that so far, but let's um Let's see. I was listening to Trevor Phillips. One of my uh great political heroes on uh Times Radio. And he he made a really simple but really important point. And he said One of the great problems now in building a sort of a constituency for defence spending is In the past, an awful large percentage of the British population knew people who served in the military And they don't anymore. It's like the military's almost a foreign thing. And people just aren't invested in it. They don't see the connection that Steve was talking about between the economic interests and the and the defence industry. We have just retreated so far from The idea that um the army in that matter. I uh culturally I think it's gonna be hard to But we w we should stop there and when we come back, I'm going to ask Steve How happy he was on Sunday night when we learnt that George uh Victor Auburn hadn't just lost You've been utterly humiliated. Back in a moment. So Steve, how much champagne, co op champagne were you drinking on that Sunday evening? Well I I have you know any excuse for the coach champagne. They don't even sponsor this podcast, so the amount of publicity we give them is ridiculous. Giving us half their profits for sponsorship. Uh I don't know whether what their profits are at the moment, but uh Definitely at least half. Um I I thought it was very interesting that you know, commentators on the progressive wing were so euphoric on on this level. It was very quickly as always, I I I can see why they were in terms of uh Hungary and the implications, though I suspect not huge for what happens in Ukraine and in Europe. and so on. But immediately there were sort of uh columns about the lessons for uh uh other countries about taking on the populist right and what are they? And the answer is, you know, for example in here taking on reform, although again I think Nigel Farage has quotes Galore praising um uh this figure who was uh slaughtered on Sunday evening, um, which should in the end become tricky for him and deserve to be. Um but You know, the the there are huge differences between reform, AFD, the right in France and all the who had ruled there for years and years. And sixteen. Sixteen years. And actually even before those sixteen years he had a period uh before then separated by a period of opposition. So it's been a fixture in Hungarian politics for a very, very long time. Yeah, and also therefore has the vulnerability of incumbency. Whereas these other dissenting forces are not in inverted commas contaminated by Then uh the Issue. uh which got him was corruption. Yeah and that in a way is the easiest issue for it's an absolutely valued one, but I'm not underplaying it, of course. That's the easy one. Uh, to frame arguments about corruption. It it's happened in Britain on a minor level with that term sleeves. People forget in 1997, Sleaze came top of the issues worrying voters about the John Major government. Major, Clark, Essel Time, people who weren't remotely sleazy, but they were seen as sleazy and Blair played it. He said he subsequently regretted it. So I think there are only very limited lessons. About how uh Labour take on reform, how uh the opponents of AFD take on AFD, and similarly the right in France in what happened here. But yeah, of course I was pleased to see him go. And Ian, um did you did you notice it at at all or were you still um No, I can't L D C. No, I have to say I opened on in in Post L D C um you know frame of mind. I'd I opened the the last last bottle of um don't worry, it's not actually crazily expensive 'cause it's it it's it's old, but um I wouldn't say it'd gone off, it was actually you know interesting stuff. of pre nineteen eighty nine Tokai, which is the Hungarian um Hungarian famous dessert wines. Oh yeah, so you what sap a picture of it's a bit, I remember that. Yeah. And it's it was sort of it was you know it it was beyond beyond old but still sort of fun thing. And um yeah, I thought I thought it was a fantastic Moment. And I do, you know, do do do recall that um You know, lots of lots of people said this wasn't possible because actually if if Hungary is a completely warped uh you know um autocratic fascist state then it shouldn't have been possible to defeat the autocrat. And it it s it seems to be happening and the transfer of power seems to be seems to be peaceful. Quite interesting though to watch how we there was some really good pieces in uh various parts of the Press. background profiles on this um the guy who's you know on on on on on the new man. And um He's not he's not he's not really I I think he you know he he's not the kind of liberal he's not the creature of of the liberal common common consent, his immigration policy actually seems to be harsher than that. Well um It does feel to me though as though I mean Steve was saying You know, st Steve was d debating whether you're to what extent this is this is gonna have an impact. I w I'm not sure about the impact. I think it's more what it tells us in terms of how we may be we're through peak populism or people. P populism of that that kind, that sort of vintage of kind of MAGA twenty fifteen. to now and approaching the US midterms it it feels as though and that's the great thing about democratic politics, it turns and then eventually you get a you just get a sort of change of the tide and it feels as though that's happening. Um of course is I think Quite uplifting. What it means for for um reform. I don't know if we're gonna come on to you know we're gonna come on to the local elections. That um it means absolutely nothing um in in terms of the local elections this time. But longer term Farage has to distance himself from from Trump in the first instance and from the wider national populist um uh uh movement which is gonna feel uh at a minimum is gonna feel just very old fashioned and out of date by the time you get to twenty eight, twenty-nine. Uh I'm getting I'm gonna give you What for after creeping around you about your amazing defence conference. I I um I think you want to believe that it matters a bit for here. I I I I don't think it does at all. Except in a couple of respects, if I may say so. So I don't know you guys remember, but I got into a lot of trouble about eight years ago when I went to speak at a Danube Institute conference in Budapest, where I pre I was working for Boris Johnson at the time. And I all I praised uh the immigration policy of the Auburn regime. I like their policies on the family and a couple of other things. And as I touched down very happily in uh Heathrow Airport, thinking everything had gone well. Uh, my phone lit up and I was on the front page of the F T, uh, with a description of how I was supporting an autocrat. And um I got a call from the Prime Minister and then wasn't Boris Johnson wasn't very pleased with me. So I I I was In the public imagination so far as that exists. wants a supporter of him. And I don't um disavow those um policies. There was something happening at that time. He went I should have seen the seeds of it. earlier, but he went really bad. You know, the level of the corruption was extraordinary. And I d my faith has changed over the years. But if there is a hell, Putin should be in it. And here is a l leader of a European state who once fought against communism. Defending Putin, essentially. A lot of the money that's come into Hungary under his leadership has come from China. He went bad. I read tributes from people like Tony Abbott and others to Orban and one thing that will doom the populist movement Is if they can't And address the bad eggs in the In their midst. And Orban became a bad egg, I'm afraid. As many people do after that length of period. And I was amazed. Is J D Vance got the worst political judgment of any politician in the world? Go and defend Orban. In that way. Absolutely extraordinary. And I don't think you're right, Ian. Um I think Steve, I don't do think Steve was more sober in his assessment on on this occasion. I don't think it will matter for for reform. But if If leaders of the populist movement becomes so out of touch, they will defend someone like Orban regardless of what he does, then the movement will be doomed. I think Farage is far too flexible and decent a person to do that. But Well, he's on the record publicly uh uh Praising Orban on many different things. I was I I was, Steve. I was. I but I don't know how much he's done that recently. I I I don't know, is my honest answer. Yeah, I mean uh but yeah, I well I I I don't know how recent, but quite recent, I think. I might be wrong. I was just giving you brownie points and now you're supportive if if as a leader you hail someone who is in front of everyone or most people's eyes, uh all the faults visible. You have to answer to that. And he does have to answer to what he said about Trump and Or bad. Um but where I do agree with you is I think you there is a limit to how you extrapolate that election. Others coming. Here and elsewhere. Okay, well that's a that's a good note. We'll take our second and final break and then afterwards we'll have a a little preview of incredibly important uh forthcoming local Scottish and Welsh elections. Acts. In a moment. So um Steve, I'll start with y you again. Um how bad is it going to be for Labour? We know it's going to be bad, but yeah I still have the sense When the results come in. And Labour actually sees the devastation of uh party in Wales. in Scotland and in the London boroughs. The three traditional heartlands. I think they've already lost m a lot of the northern cities. I think it's gonna still hit them hard. And it's Starmer's had a good war. T. What wh what's your sense of what the Labour mood will be, um, after these elections? Uh terrible. And and you're right, there's something psychological about uh politics which remains endlessly fascinating. So even though every single Labor person knows it's going to be bad, when it is bad, um there will still be a sense Oh, shock's the wrong word, but it is almost a shock when you uh see those results or hear them being uh broadcast. Um if they are as bad as poll suggests that they Will be. Um and uh it will be a traumatic summer for Labour and incidentally in in a slightly different way for uh the conservatives. Um and Uh, what happens is I mean, there is an assumption, which I share, that there will not be a challenge. to Starmer in the immediate aftermath. But no one is ever quite sure because of this weird psychology. Of um despair feeding it on itself over the weekend and on the week when MPs uh return to the comments. I don't think they're back on the Monday actually. But um uh and then of course Perhaps by design rather than accident. Yeah, I think that's the King's speech then later on in that week very soon. So there will be an attempt with a reshuffle in King's speech for Starmer to regain momentum, but but it will be in the context of uh electoral uh shock unless all these polls are wrong. Um and and and I think, you know, people will turn all over the place, obviously to Wales, if it's as bad as polls suggests, uh, to Scotland and uh the north east of England. uh where, you know, there is a danger that another Labour uh uh goes. And and we know what happened in Scotland when first time round they lost to the SNP. Um and that's the reason why Ed Miller Ban didn't become Prime Minister. You know, so so so these things are You're right, that they're ready for it, and yet when it happens Uh it will still be a shock. Can I can I ask you about the Tory party in? Because um I don't I don't know, I take no pleasure in this, by the way. But there is this narrative out there and Kemi has done well. We've we've talked, I've acknowledged it. But the Tory I think the Tory results in these forthcoming local elections are going to be beyond terrible. And I think in back jobs like Essex, where a lot of the Shab Shadow Cabinet, including um Kemi Badnot herself, represents. Is the party aware of how bad these results are gonna be? Because I don't think it is. And I don't know what they're going to do after I don't know where they go. Kemi shouldn't be changed. She's a she's absolutely a good enough. There's no one better. But I think the party is going to suffer a defeat at least as bad as Labour. Yeah, I mean you may you may well be right, Tim, but as as we've dis discussed before on on here. There's nothing there's nothing you can do about it. There's just something that has there's something that has to play out here. Right, which is that it it's reform reform is going to get its moment where the the established parties get an absolute kicking from reform and from the Greens on the on on the left as well. And then it's gonna land where it's gonna land. And then those councils and those local authorities have to be run by reform and by the Greens and we'll we'll see how well that goes in the next eighteen months. And you sort of pick up the politics from there. I I don't think it I I haven't encountered I mean I've been a bit busy on the defence stuff, but running into um into Tories. I I haven't encountered anyone who's uh anyone who's confusing her Doing much better and have and and her being clear the leader until the next election and being in a stronger position. Don't think anyone's confusing that with the with the on the ground. Come on, it is I uh maybe I spend too much time on Twitter. I I do spend too much time. But every real world as David Cameron told us. But every day. Whenever there is one opinion poll which shows something of a Tory recovery, Tory MPR reform is on the slide, we're on the way back. The people are death. It's more it's it's it's it's it's it's a symptom of a party that still doesn't get it. And I I think what you just said, I don't think you s it's not enough to just say It's gonna happen and we've got to play through. I don't see a fundamental strategy from still from the Conservative Party. What would you suggest that that strategy should be? How long have we got? Um I left the Conservative Party partly because I don't think there is much that can be done, but there's one thing that I would have prioritised. The reform's big problem is that we don't have Many MPs. We'll have to find An unprecedented number of new MPs. And I've been concerned in this electoral cycle that I thought we were on top of vetting and I'm no longer sure that we are. We have our problems. The Conservative Party problem is a very different one, but equally large, is that a lot of conservative MPs aren't conservative. A I would have no confidence that if I voted for Kemi Baiden when the going got tough, that thirty to forty concern MPs would back her. She'd done nothing about that. She could at least start there, but I have seen nothing of that order from her. I don't well hold on. Are you you' su suggesting that the Conservative Party, which is already shrunken, should make itself smaller to prove its ideological purity. I d I I just d I just don't buy that. I mean if there are other things as what B Johnson did in the Brexit though, everyone thought it was mad but it communicated to the electorate that he was serious about getting Brexit done. It's clearly not serious about getting conservatism done. But look, hold on. There there are some other things that reform needs. Reform needs some uh serious. Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Uh we' we talk about reform reforms a week. I you know I I try and admit them. I would talk about them. Let's just don't attack reform. Tell me about the Conservative Party. I've t I've t I've I've told you I've told you my view, which is that on on in terms of how this part of the political cycle works, there's almost nothing you can do. All you can do all that they can do and you know the London Defence Conference is a cross party, non party forum, so There was John Healy and Al Khan's for Labor and there was um Kimmy Baylonoth for the for the Tories and various other Now she g she gave by common consent from non you know, non party people said that was an that was an it was an interesting, thoughtful, half an hour. um uh policy rich speech on defence and the world cr uh defence and the world crisis. Now I'm just I I just that's that's that's all you could all you could do. I mean you could contr you could can con con contrast that with reform not you know not not yet having a position. It's gonna have to get a position on all all of that stuff. So I think in the circumstances that's kind of the best you can do politically. Make those speeches, try and be uh the Tor the the Tories clearly see her as operate you know, as being the kind of reality based candidate. who's going to talk about defence and foreign affairs and having to cut um you know having to cut welfare and control public spending. You you do that and then you just have to hope that the the political we can change the political weather in some in some way over the course of the next eighteen months, two years and get a hearing. But perhaps because of a crisis. I d I don't think there is a you could they could apologize for absolutely everything that happened in the last fourteen years. They've done a fair bit of apologizing. I'm not sure what the thing you're reaching for that they're gonna do is that's gonna change things. So I I actually think her approach is broadly Correct, and and pretty much their only option. Okay. Oh I I will leave it there. You and I could discuss this for hours and uh that would be a very that there'd be a very select committed audience. Can I just think of the listeners? Sorry, I'm not Can I just quickly add, I'm not a betting person. Um, but I think the chances of Tories doing quite well at the general election is uh are underpriced. And I think the chances of Labour uh in some form or another having a second term. So even though the talk On the Friday after the elections are well beyond. is the collapse of the two bigger parties and the rise of reform and the Greens. Um I I I'm pretty I would put money on one of the two bigger parties. uh governing after the election. How much should we bet then a bottle of co-op champagne I was I was gonna suggest a bottle of co-op champagne. You're wrong, you're wrong. I um I'm so I'm gonna make a prediction and we'll have to give Miranda a right to reply if hopefully she's back with us next week. Uh this is my controversial prediction. I don't know whether you two agree with it. I think Keir Starmer and Kemi Badnot will both be in place as party leaders by the autumn. He may still technically be there, but I think the one party leader who will be on his way up by the autumn will be Ed Davy. I think the Liberal Democrats are in a lot of trouble. They have wasted the uh platform they constructed at the last election. And I think Ed Davy is about to be hit by an internal rebellion. And uh I uh give Miranda a chance to reply next week, but Would you bet against me on that, Ian Steve? I would agree with you about the first two. Um and I think I I think he will also be there in the autumn. Uh Ian? Uh I'm not not sure. I'm I'm not not so tuned into Lib Dem um uh affairs to to know the answer to that question. However, I do notice that he has he he's his people have clearly spot that they've taken this kind of dancing around behaving like a complete clown. routine too far. His intervention his interventions in the last couple of weeks have been primarily about defence. And I I mean you can say that's a cheek that he's he's late to the party, but it is very interesting. He's trying to he's trying to prove that he has more you know, more serious credentials. He's he's mapped out a position on an i on an independent nuclear deterrent. He has um he made a uh you know he's made an offer to to work with Starmer on on you know on defense if necessary in uh you know in in terms of the national interest and all that sort of stuff. So he clearly To your point. clearly knows that he has a problem and is tr and is trying to um emphasize that it's not all Tom Foolery. Okay, well we should wrap it up that I've really enjoyed our conversation. When we've disagreed as much as when we've agreed. Um now I'm gonna say something now that that may be entirely irrelevant. I've picked up a little bit of interference on our recording while I've been listening. We might be able to edit it out. during the um actual uh editing of the uh podcast. So if you haven't heard any problems, please forget that you just heard this. But if you did, um have a little bit of wobbliness on the line. I apologize for that and then we'll try and investigate. what the calls shoot. But um we hope we'll have Maranda back with us next week. Well until then from me, from Ian and from Steve. Yeah. Bye. Bye.