Political Strategy and Future Elections

on Kids, what should we order for dinner? Pizza Thaie. Tacos. Hey boys, let's not get local. What kind of restaurant is pizza Thie and tacos? I'll! Oh my go! Why can't we have food without the b? With Wonder, you can combine twenty restaurants in one delivery, so your family never has to compromise. Use code mealtime for fifty percent off your first Wonder order terms applies to see wonder. com slash new customer el to not another one. podcast with me, Tim Montgomery, Miranda Green, and Ian Martin. And normally of course we have Steve Richards here with us. and he'll be back with us next week for what will be a very special edition of not another one because We've been doing this podcast now for two years and we've loved doing it together And we're loving to look tellell you more about our plans for the future But one of those plans will involve Steve doing a little bit less with us. He'll still be appearing on the podcast But we're going to be experimenting with bringing other voices into the podcast as a as we continue to be committed to a podcast where you hear different voices and we hear different voices and talk to each other. So next week We're going to be a special Listeners' questions edition. so we want you to sending your normal questions about what's going on in politics. But also ask us about the future of the podcast because we have a lot to tell you about. askk Steve about what he will be doing next as well as being an occasional continuing guest or not another one And also we'll be toasting To your partnership we've loved having with Steve with inevitably co op champagne And so next week, a very special edition of Notother one we'll all be together to tell you about our future plans But as regular listeners will be aware One of the things we occasionally do when we're not quite sure what the main topic of the week should be is that we have a Tapass edition where we do three topics and that's what we're going to do today We're going to talk about Andy Berham and devolution We're going to talk about defence. Of course with our resident defence expert Ian Martin here. And then I and Ian and myself gonna have a big scrap about reform versus the Tories with Miranda referee. Oh my God. dear But I've got my gauntlets on Exactly. I myself physically between two. But should we start off with an Andy Burnham and we're recording on Tuesday. He gave a speech on Monday in Manchester. in his black t shirt? or was it dark blue? I don't think we've quite established that yet, have we And Randa Wout me Gibbering on anymore? What did you make of it? 've been on a bit of a journey. Oh yeah. This' the last episode that we recorded onn the topic of Andy Burnham's imminent premiership And because you know, I mean, obviously an asteroid in some form could hit, but that's what we're expecting and I ice cold looks, I think, but' I've sort of I've sort of I've allowed myself to enjoy some of the vibe shift from Stom to Burnham. Because honestly, what else can the nation do? And I actually mean that quite sincerely We obviously have very little detail on what the Berham program is going to be. Even this big speech that he's made on his devolution agenda, which is probably the most thought through, considering he wrote a book several years ago about what they've learnnted from the Manchester experperience that they can spread to the rest of the UK. All of that. I do think that there is something about this kind of optimistic tone of voice in which he's speaking to the nation that is working for him so far and Mbe just maybe, along with the tough questioning and the scrutiny We're allowed a teeny tiny sliver of hope that things might be a bit better because Honestly, when you talk to labour MPs, The last two years have been really grim in there and it's such almost they're coming out at the moment, aren't they? They were hitant at first, but now we're certain in private, they're talking a lot about how bad it's been. Exactly. So it is their fault, but anyway No. Well I would say we're all slightly to blame him, but anyway, I think the Starmer era, you know this experiment with putting somebody in as Prime Minister who wasn't a politician and didn't actually like politics.. OkayK, we've had a go at that. So I'm just I mean we'll get on to what he's said so far in the policy programe and the rest of it, but Just for the moment, I'm allowing myself to be a citizen. and to kind of sort of sort of watch his little social videos of him bouncing around in his t shirt and think Maybe just maybe it might be a bit better. Have you talk about I'm going be completely off topic now. But of course we lost Penelope Keith yester. the great comedy actress. And there's a wonderful. Thank you very much Jerry.. Jerry. And there was a brilliant, I think I've shared it with a conservative group ight wing group we're on WhatsApp with you, Ian. Do' I think I'm on that group L. Not right enough No not right w. not right wing enough for me.' interesting. But there's this vision of Margot going to pay her rates as it then was And she goes d things that she's happy to pay for like street lighting, etca. But not drains, she says, because my drain hasn't been cleaned. and the person behind the desk says, She said, I'm not a citizen. I'm a rape. So when you said you was a citizen, I thought of Margot. and she was the best. Well, I mean, you know, that's an honour to be even in passing compared to Mgo Led but I can die happy now D What did you make of the speech? gettinget back on topic? Well, I'm going to surprise, Miranda by Kind of agreeing with her. How what's happened to us sw? think what's gone wrong? They put it in the water. You're gonna have to savage burn it Steve Richards, the spirit of Steve Richards is clearly living in all of us. No, that's just Should we deal with a positive first? which is What a relief He can speak appears to actually enjoy it He is optimistic, he's actually quite funny when he needs to be and he's clearly clearly a politician, as you say, Miranda We've tried that experiment of not having a politician in charge and boy it didn't It didn't work. I think it's very exciting that he's that he's launching the National Vibes aggency. and I think that positivity didn't last long. There are rumours it's going to be headquartered in Manchester, but nothing is decided yet. We'll see. No, but on the sticking with positive for a second. I mean I just how I't want to be cruel about Starmer and there will be people listening who think that he's been treated And in a c certain respects he has been. his party has just elbowed him aside and just decided he didn't have it. and They fear losing their seats and losing their jobs. so they're going to with a grin moves straight onto the next thing which I do think is a bit of a problem for labour actually. I think this is The problems this is clear, the problems with StAmer were observable and observed at the time in the run up to the general election. I mean, Michael Crk famously said There wasn't enough scrutiny come back to that in terms of what that. He said it at the time, didn't he?. He said, rightight before the election vote, he said I think that in a couple of years time, we're going to regret the fact that we're giving this Labour partarty a free pass. And it was almost two years to the day Uh And then Starmer Starmer fell after Michael Crk's tweet. So there's something there's plenty to explore in all of that But you're absolutely right, Miranda, relish the fact just for a moment that there is someone who appears to know what he's about and not I' not convinced yet that there is the detail there. not convinced by that the The move to Manchester is either a sensible decision or I don't think it's really going to endure. I just think the way that the world works when it's Friday morning and president has done or said something or there's a national security crisis on the Saturday. It's just your 's you're signing up for the job Yeah. And a big part of that job is Britain is is a member of the Permanent Security Council of the UN is a nuclear power for all that we are. we'll get on to this later doing our very best to run ourselves down and continue our decline in defense and security terms We're still a major player and that involves that involves twenty four seven really you know, there's just no doubt about it. We as someone said, I think it wasam Samuel Rubenein, the historian Um you brilliant writer put it this week. This question of where the national capapital is I mean, we sort of settled it in the tenth century. It's been all in the tenth or eleventh century and for a reason, it's an international it's become in the last four or five centuries,'s become an international global city that other leaders want to come to. And I think the the idea that he's spending going to spend less and less time in in London and not very much time abroad, which has been briefed by his allies. I think as David Aronovich put it, I think his allies should shut up because that's going to look very silly in a couple of months. That's interesting though, isn't it? Becauseose are two different things. I mean, whether he can succeed in what he seems to want to do, which is to be a domestic prime minister and get away from the never hear Kar slur, which I thought was a bit dafted actually but you know, you can see that he thinks there should be urgent focus on the domestic agenda, Whether he can actually get away with it doing that is one thing. But I mean, I don't know, Tim. what do you think? I'm not totally against this you know, number ten in the north I mean, Rishi Sunak moved part of the treasury to Yorkshire, Daring. Dar coni conveniently close to to his Richmond Yorkshire constituency. Just by tes of marginal Yeah But you know, that that hasn't been a disaster and it hasn't been reversed and we're well away from the SunNak Premiership, aren't we? And I think I mean, I think Isn't it a good idea to I think you have to move bit. I think you have to move enough and it may not been Jim O'Neill, but I't think Jim ONeil would disagree with this. I heard someone on the radio other day comparing the move of the Treasury to Darlington. to the move of a lot of the BBC to solve it And the conclusion was basically The move to Darlington helped a bit but it was not significant enough to change the dynamic of the location Whereas the BBC moved so many functions quite substantially to what we now call media city. and so it really has changed the game. It is part of Manchester's rebirth And so If you're going to do devolution, if you're going to make a change like that, you can't do it in a tokenistic way. And I think On the sort of spectrum, the treasury move was closer to Tokenistic, while the BBC move has created an artistic creative industries hub in the North, which we didn't have before And so I'm basically completely, completely in favor Andy Burnham pursuing this devolution agenda if he does it and you probably never going to get a better opportunity. It's what he's been living for a number of years. It's what he's known for. He's bringing in people like Steve Rolin, the the mayayor of Liverpool. I'd love to see someone like Andy Street, the former Tory. mayor for the West Midlands be involved Yeah because Andy Bernam was very close to him when they were mayorors together. I don't know why Andy Street and I actually on a commission together on racial cohesion And one of the differences I've always thought between, one of the things I like about Andy Burnham compared, for example, Sadi Khan is Rather than just relying on the core Labour vote he has always reached beyond the Labour Core vote. And if If he does that on devolution really would be historic and welcome I really don't like this your specific question to me though, Madom, was this the number ten in the North thing? I've worked in Down Street only briefly. And you look at the you know, why is the West wing called the West wing? you know, The way these offices work of heads of government Being close to people all the time Knowing what's going in the on in the next door office you know, the basic geography of an office of a of the headquarters of a goovernment matters and Most people probably think number ten is dysfunctional enough. I just do not know whet they're having two separate powers where if only Berlin iss going to be working from home you know for two days a week. not near cabinet miss. I worry about that. I think completely in favor of the deepilution agreement Creating an alternative number ten where staff don't necessarily know each other, don't know what's going on next door Cabinet ministers of Drinks after work for meeting MPs at parties I do worry about that. But on a Friday A lot of MP's are not there anyway On a Friday, ministers offices are doing things like calling us in the newsroom. you know what I mean?' I'm not sure how much of that stuff goes on on a Friday anyway. I mean, what you've described sounds dreadful Tim, I mean that you've described a totally dysfunctional version of how it could turn out of because is it just going be is it just going to be by you know, it could be it could be something else. It could be something that loops in another set of decision makers working up the devolution of power agenda in a more creative way. I didn't you I think's not it's not the orkneyys, is it? No, you know, no disfavor to the Orkneys, but Manchester is hoping a skit really? And it's not that far it's not that far north. Flame travel. Fraser Nelson keeps saying that forty percent of country is north of the north ofount Manchester, but I think that slightly understates the fact that it's largelyand mass rather than population. But yeah, there's a potential problem. mean you think about the politics of it, there is a potential problem for him in that lots of the and I absolutely love Manchester. It's one of my favourite cities, one of my favourite places because of the music and the history and you know I mean, you you used laugh at me, Tim when I would eet that I was mad for it if I was ever if I'm approaching Manchester I still F when I first put this is of course I'm sounding like Andy Burnnamie, you put on the Stone Roses or the Smiths. and you have loveved the eyelashes by the way. that's true. It's definitely's definitely somewhere've feel fantastic going towards Manchester. So what I'm saying is not critical of of Manchester. but anyone who knows strange topography and you know make upp of England knows that if you try telling someone from Ls or Newcastle or Liverpool or lots of other places in the North that Manchester is the center of the universe, you'll get a pretty robust Yeah response. So leaning into that so early. I under understand completely why he's doing it because it is it is it's a metaphor to authenticity. So it's a metaphor for saying I'm different from other politicians. It's quite it is deliberate and the fact that some people will be annoyed about it is will please team Burnam, they want to provoke that response. They're trying to set him apart from the usual class politicians. I thought that Robert Peston don't always agree with him, but made a really interesting point about all of this, which is that We don't have a presidential system. It's quite presidential behavior I'm moving I'm moving the government or a chunk of it here or I'm moving the office. I'm moving it closer to where to where I live Whereas London has many flaowors, but Pe may hate it But it is for us. And that's the point about Parliament. I mean, that's why The lobby is whereet you know, saident you know sent Westminster Hall where you can go and lobby your your parliamentarian if you choose and everyone theoretically has that right even if they choose not to use it That's very A system which has developed over the course of three, four, five centuries and I I just think there's there's a danger there in it looking resumptious And I'd want to hear, for example, if this this office of the number ten in the north. What is the parliamentary oversight of that going to be? Is there going to be one of the parliamentary committees? Is it going to monitor how effective this is? Is it going to orr is it just going to be the liaison committee that several times a year gets a chance to quiz the PM and he'll say it's all working brilliantly. but We have a parliamentary system And I think we move away from it. I think the deputy Chief of staff is proposing, who I think is one of his colleagues at Amera is going to run the Yes. So they she, I think it is a she P she will be called in front of select committee. Yeah Yeah. N not sure. I mean, I don't think we need to man the barricades. quite yet to defend Param Parliament, Do do we? I don't know. I think it'll probably turn out to be quite a small beer but might what might signal something about know if we want to take what's worked in Manchester and Yeah, spread it. My bet is that my bet is that it won't It won't endure for very long. actuallyctually. or that the machine the machinery, the skeleton of it will exist but actually decision will be taken in London And then on a Friday That's when Macron or, whoever the next presresident of France needs to visit. Quite often these international gatherings are on a Friday and a Saturday for a reason because Parliament Parliaments are not sitting in the relevant countries and it's easier for leaders to get out's Well, then you can take Macron to some lovely country house hotel in the lakes or you know, I mean, possibly. It's also' this thing called cheheckers which is already secure Yeah But is that not going to be that not going to be used? We'll see Taking to tra. I guess they're not obliged. Okay. onn that point of feeling a spring in your step when you approach Manchester I two Adore the Smith seeing just for the record feel like coming into Newcastle. You know when you come in on you ad Rel Smith. A. and And you see the bridges across the time. And Newcastle I think Newcastle edges it on glamour actually. I think it's a wonderful city. Well haaving just been down to Cornwall the weekend on the train The rival the two best rail journeys in the UK I think going down across the south coast Timouth and then go north Bar uponwet. They are food the Northumberland coast where the sheep are going hanging onto the edge.' gorgeous. Well, we're going to take a break now and then we're going to come back for our second course. Is a course in Tapas? secondecond dish in our Tapas edition when we talk about defence. Get ready, questions coming your way a moment As I've already said, we're meeting on Tuesday, which is the day that the Prime Minister, Mrter K Ser Kis Dama. rememember him announced his big B. defefense review. And so perhaps youar Martin, that's my first question to you. This settlement that he' announced, a fifteen billion more pounds It's more than was expected, I think, by John Heeeley, former Defense Secretary, resigned. Defense imag. So Dan Jarvis may have gone a little bit more, but it's still much less than John Healley wanted, I think most inside defence experts, including military leaders that the def strategic defence review needed. Is that right? Yes, I mean Well, there's a dispute about there's a dispute about the numbers and it is slightly more than the number that John Healley resigned over And then there's a dispute running about you know, what slightly means it? Well, sort of a, you know, billion, you know, billion maybe even a little billion a billion a half extra or a billion that Yeah they were J was briefing on Friday, weren't they? They were a briefing on Friday O, one billion more whatever good that is. And then The thing we the thing we don't know because Te of recording number ten has not commented on this and Burnham hasn't commented either because the weirdness of this of this is being announced just before we get a change of Prime Minister. So it was suggested over the weekend that the incoming Prime Minister had been briefed and the implication was that he'd agreed to this that he had been talked through it. I'm not sure about this. If this goes badly wrong, I think you'll find it might have been mentioned to Andy Bernon, but is not necessarily signed up to it My view would be that comes to the mechanics and the detail in a moment is that this will have to be revisited by the new Pime Minister that it's it's not enough Britain's going to have a very tough time at the NATO summit, which is coming up. S Kirirsta wanted to be the next Secretary General of Na, that was a bit cheeky, wasn't it? Given Perhaps you'd like to be the next captain of England men's cricket team. I mean I'd like to be in the Rolling Stones. There are all sorts of aspirations we have in life, but I think it would be it's not nothing nothing is impossible and he will be looking for an international job of some sort we're about to be roasted by the Americans for being a laggard on defense spending. Now I know we started with a higher in cash terms amount that we spend along with France's bigger military powers in Europe. but we're now being you know, we're not we're not we're not keeping up with our allies as Richard Barrons, who was lead on the strategic defence review said this morning, not keeping up with our allies even wor we're not even keeping up with our enemies in terms of what's being what's being spent. So the question is what are the terms on which this has been agreed and will The serervice chiefs and the MOD then go back to a new Prime mininister and say, well, that was a start. I think Starmer said the next prime mininister or whoever follows him, may seek to build on it But there is quite a lot of anger that it is still, you know two years have almost been wasted Since labor got in. And we're signed up to three point five percent plus one point five percent on resilience We're not going to meet hit that target We're a lagged, we're about to be criticised by the Americans and by some of our other allies who can't quite believe that Britain is not stepping up. So that's the context. What's the gap between that we won't have from spending one point five billion extra rather than the amount that John Hilly wants. There was reports at the weekend that We won't get eight destroyers. We'll get these sort of new hybrid I was not using technical term here. I'm not an expert, but I don't know what you think of that particular shift, but what else might we lose from not? What else is unfunded but? So the theory, the criticism will be partart of this is about It's the Navy is being reduced. Now Britain is traditionally a maritime power. We guard the this end of the North Atlantic And that's one of the reasons our allies take us seriously because of our historic role doing that. So if it means and it will mean on these numbers, Navy that's smaller than it should be The gamble and the spin is that ah, you see old fashioned navies no longer required. you switch everything to or you switch much more to drones Now the reality is you need both And if you look at what China and the US are doing, and obviously we can't compete with China or the US in terms of scale but they are both trying to expand their conventional shipbuilding capacity and the number of hulls they have and the size of theiravy Navy. China's Navy is in the process of increasing by seventy percent since twenty since twenty sixteen. and they're also doing adaptive drone warfare and counter drone warfare. So it's not a question of either or, but Classic British officiales we've said, well here with this magic trick Forget about those old style ships we' going to create ships we're going to create. We're doing all this cool drone stuff because that's the future. My argument would be you need both. And Remember there's been a lot of confusion about the numbers, but that number twenty eight billion. that Prime Minister Kirstama was told was short. That's effectively, that's before That's just to meet existing commitments. You then needed extra money on top. So we are over the course of the next the rest of this parliament al long that last, if if it does last three years, we are tens tens of billions out from where we should be if we're going to u keep up with our NATO commitments. Now there will be people listening saying, well, do we really have to do this? But we've debated that a lot on this podcast. People people know my view, I think it's It should be the priority. Miranda, before we came on air, we were talking about and social care. Andy Beran wants to do this massive devolution package This first decision about whether Andy Berham backs the sort of ambition that Ian has just spoken about all sticks with what I think is a fairly modest increase in investment in defence that Sekur Stammer has signed off and hopes that it will be his legacy This first decision by the incoming Prime Minister could be one of his biggest couldn't it? Because P I would be within and I would go big on defence. I think it's the first duty of any government But if he does do that, the consequences for ability to afford ort of domestic priorities that he's been most associated with. It could be much, much harder. So this is apart from choosing a chancellor, not an unrelated decision He may define his government in the next two, three weeks with his decisions That's if he makes a decision on it next three weeks, right Yeah. So I mean, there would be a way for him politically to dodge that since Starmmer has chosen to publish before he goes as part of his inverted commerce bucket list as Prime Minister. somebody rather unpleasantly from number ten brief my colleagues at the FT So I think actually there is a way for Burnham to park this for a while, certainly well the new chancellor, whoever that is getsbedded in and while they actually look towards a budget and to what the fiscal situation really is, becausecause you know the problem with this argument, I think, is that it's all as everything else because we're in a scarcity mindset because growth is H And we've got so little to spend and the fiscal situation is so bad. So it becomes a kind of competing runoff between white H apartments even more than it always is. Obviously it's always like that in the run up to a budget. But I think I think the weeks over the summer 'cause Burnham of course, is taking Num ten after Parliament goes into summer recess, I would imagine, wouldn't you? that they will quite carefully decide to put all of these things on a big list of headaches over the summer and work towards a budget where they try and answer some of the questions all at once in terms of priorities. I think it would be a bit I may be wrong, he may choose to in the next three or four weeks. say something big on defense But exactly. because politically why would you because those trade offs questions the are the other follow up question. And since StarM has in a sense gifted you a done deal albeit a deal that people are not happy with. Why would you go back immediately to do that? I mean, He Healy resigned you know, there is there is another the Defense Scretary in place, Stan Jarvis, we don't know if he'll stay, but there's no actual pressing reason to go back to it. The underlying question, I think, is the fact that the defense spending argument been completely made on the basis of the NATO target I think if you're going to have this conversation with the British public, you have to have a totally different conversation which is actually about the dangers that we now face And particularly if you're going to start talking about the Navy, you need to be talking about our waters. You need to be talking about the Russian shadow fleet. you need to be talking about the vulnerability of those undersea cables. You need to be talking about as Sall boats, even Well, yes, because that is seen as state failure in a similar way. but do you know what I mean? I think you need to actually You need to enter the public psychology with the defence spending argument in a completely different way. People hear oh well this target's been set by NATO. and we're part of that. We've got to hit this. It sounds like an abstract thing Rather than what is our actual capability and what are the dangers that we face? I think it may be wise to go back to that argument with a fresh Prime Minister. I think Steve Richards is largely right about this because he says we don't have to worry about the abstract target y. I think I largely agree with him. is I think pressing and why I'm in Ian's camp is that there's so much we obviously need to do to get up to basic levels of defence capacity And I think we can leave that conversation about the percentage to another day I think I largely agree with you generally, Miranda, but the reason I mention John Healy is Is he going to be in the Andy Berlam cabinet? Is he going to continue to attack You know, he resigned on principle over this defense issue. He's already, I think, attacked Starmer today Tuesday in Will he make it Is he going to lie down and be join the come by our spirit that seems to be in the Labour Party at the moment. orr will he actually say to Andy Burnham, No, we cannot continue to dither on this. You cannot know, So it's going to be a headache for Andy Burnham either way. either commits More resources to the defense of the realm or potentially as and John Heeeley on his back and the defense establishment. if you know, the defense establishment, former generals, admirals, etceter are already speaking out more and more in the press. It could be a headache if the first thing that defines Andy Bern and when potentially he wants to go to the country in early election is the defence establishment. One of the few remaining institutions that the British people still trust saying that the new prime Mister isn't serious. It's an interesting they don't do the British public trust procurement decisions by the MOD, though. No. I mean that's a really important part of this conversation. That's a subset that I think they probably trust generals and not. so Meg Hiller, who ouristens, I'm sure probably know very well which chairres the Treasury select commommittee. in the Cons. she wrote a piece for the FT over the weekend where she said, you know, part of the problem is that relations in Whitehall between the MOD and the Treasury have just totally broken down. So it's an absolute dialogue of the deaf. The treasury do not trust the MOD to spend the money wisely, essentially. And that is a huge It's a good reason. a huge problem. So it's a very complicated conversation and that's why as I say, I think you have to start the conversation back on first principles, which is the dangers facing the country and how we equip ourselves to meet them. Just on the John Healy fininal word that we need to take another b J just on the John Healley point. I mean I take the Yeahah, think I see exactly what you mean Miranda, it's an abstract number. But as Haley pointed out today will still be spending Just two point seven percent of GDP in twenty thirty, which is when the date, as he says, when NATO has warned could face a Russian Now why does the number why does the number matter the abstract number because our cllosest allies in Europe are doing it. So if you If you want to lead, if you want Britain to play its part, which other countries want us to, I mean, they look they do look to Britain and they look to France because of our history, heritage and size of our armed forces and say well where is where is Britain but the polls are from a low base are spending Pish rather than pin polols. Yeah, are spending nearly five percent Swedes just spe been three point seven percent there's pretty much a political consensus on that even after the election, which is coming up in September. You've got all of these other countries doing it and they're used to looking to Britain and Britain Iagine Britain under Margaret Thatcher in this situation probably be making should be making a virtue of saying I'm afraid it' less of this. because we're going to have to up our warfighting. Do you know what the The percentage we're spending on defense is if we take out the cost of our indndependent nuclear it comes down Well on that two point seven it would be about you one point point eight Yeah. nearly one percent of. that. seven. point seven is nuclear. So that takes us down. So it Yeah it depends how you count it, but yeah, so two percent, that's a much bigger gap between what Yeah how European. So we carry the nuclear deterrent as as, you know, as well as as France do, which is and and where the the nuclear deterrent that is that is supposed to be for the whole for the whole of Europe. Yeah Well that Fance's nuclear deterrent is for France. It's not part of NATO, is it the French nuclear deterrent? Well, has a whole separate history, but the Brits from the day in which a brilliant a genius labor foreign secretary came back having off the Americans wereude rude of Danny Bvman said We've got to have All described in John Bu's great book on Clement Atley We've got to have the British bomb and it's got to have a It's got to have a union jack on it and have a relatively independent British nuclear deterrent, that has always been for Europe as well, if you see what I mean, it's part of the But that's the That's the understanding that it would in a crisis that we would have the back of our allies. So you have that and then you strip out that. and as you say, Tim, pretty low number in terms of what we're spending on conventional stuff Another pretty low number. We're going to take a final break and then in the final ten minutes we have We're going to sort out the problems on the British right. So come back And we will talk about versus conservatism Mariranda will be holding the ring Welcome back to not another one. Now I tweeted the other day basically to my fellow reform members, and I said to them Basically Trouble ahead In the next few weeks Labour will move ahead in the opinion polls. Reform will no longer be the leading party in opinion polls Bically which has been the case for twelve to eighteen months now. There will be a Burnham honeymoon. It may be quite substantial And I think the secondary characteristic of this change in the opinion polls will be that form is much better. than the conservatives getting labour voters over to thee perform column So reform will probably dip more than the Conservatives And so not only will you see reform fall behind from first position You may even see it go into third position temper or more or less level pegging with the Tories I don't think it will be sustained. I think Reforms Cps vote is much more substantial than people realize I think labour is overpromising I think the fiscal constraints that characterize Britain aren't going to go away. I think multip party politics is is this day And I think the Tory partarty has properly be examined because I think it's I think a lot in the media have been Big up Kemy Bitnock partly to hit Nigel Farage and if the touries did start to really recover dynamic would change. What I'm absolutely sure about is that the next few weeks two to three months could be defining for the British right. And it' be those who keep cool heads and have a strategic purpose that will come through this with the with their noses ahead Miranda, before I bring in In Is that Ab does that sound about right to you Well, I thought it was a very stirring address to stirring. Were I part of your intended know recipients for that message, I would be thinking, Yes, let's get to work. I clearly am N. much very much N And I wo I do wonder, I do wonder and that is partly because of Nigel Farage himself So I talked to quite a lot of pollsters and polling analysts and people and does seem to have been a feeling that one of the things that happened in Makeerfield, but that's happening more generally as well U even in what you might call reforms recent sort of recently established heartland areas, That wheres there is a lot of support, very high support, still probably number one in the polling order support for reform as a party Nigel Frage is personal images starting to become less of a less of the perennial marmite that we haveve always known about in terms of repelling people on the left and attracting people on the right and more that there is a problem with his perception of him as a leader And I think that's a big deal for reform because even though it's a different party to UK plan the Brexit Party And it's a new phenomenon, the strength of reform on the right. I think if Nigel Farage starts to be a problem for them, then what is what are they going to do? What are they going to do seriously? And this is to do with someome of the weird nebulous things about politics where people look at character and they look at the rules of the game And I think the crypto money is starting to be a real problem for him and therefore for the party I'm on the crypto thing I would half agree and half disagree with you. I think All of the sort of meetings I've had with reform voters, they' not worried about it. sort of the Middle England people who tactically vote against reform are worried about it And if you look at reform's number one problem It is that even if we can get we keep increasing our percentage in by elections, which is true that the one deffense you can say about Makerfield, it was the highest percentage of vote we had got in a by election If there's tactical voting against you, you'll still lose. And I think the idea that Nigel Farage is hiding something or is oversensitive about something is probably breaking through And I think this is Achilles Tel. He's probably the best media performer in Britain, in my view politician But when he's attacked personally partarticularly by a woman, he gets much more defensive questioned by a wom you and If you look like your defensive view' spend it on anything, Ferraris or whatever It's not a good look and It's a test for him that he overcomes this. I think he can overcome it. I still think he is politician that made me cross the floor to the Tories These big these these are big weeks for a reform over the next few weeks and whether we can hold our heads Ian, I won't ask you a specific question. What do you think generally about what Miranda and I have discussed so far I think after your st stirring message, Tim, but where are you both calling it stirring? I have I have a message for our listeners on the on the left. which is which is prepare to have Absolutely fantastic four, five, six months, as long as it's not interrupted by a fiscal crisis or some kind of international emergency. I think if you're a person on the left you're going to have a very, very good time because I think it's going to be from that perspective, highly amusing What unfolds And I think it's a great opportunity for Andy Burnham actually. Maybe he won't go for an early election. I wrote something suggesting that he might This is your this is your weekly newsletter. Yeah just people can subscribe to it they subscribe to it? They can do. They find me they find me on Substack and they subscribe, but it And it was a bit of a thought experiment and people have come back and said, well, you know, he'd be crazy crazy to do that. But he has a He has a fantastic opportunity because As Miranda said Farage is on the back foot, I mean, it's It's not just the tactical voting thing. sometometimes in politics Politicians have a time and that time ends. One of the most remarkable things about Farage is that he defies the usual rules We talked about Gordon Brown's seven year rule. but it's only about seven years that the public will say we'll tolerate you being on the television telling them what's going on and being the main character or one of the main characters Rog has been a main character now for dozen years, fifteen fifteen years and enormously successful. And you think about the number of not just British Prime ministers outlasted, but it's basically on the pitical scene before Merkel and Mron. You know it's extraordinary resilience, but of course you're right, people do get. And sometimes new stuff comes along and it's just it's something subjective, ephemeral, very difficult to predict when that's going to happen And I'm not saying it's definitely happening now, but there there's something, the combination of that tactical voting, the way in which he seems out of sorts Because if he is going to win. He's either going to have to fight beats Labour machine in Four or five months or nine or ten months if it is next spring That's going to require a Herculean effort considering the odds against him or he's going to have to dig in for a two to three year long campaign in which he has to put together credible policies which convince enough of those people who want to vote against him tactically not to bother and then get over the line and then be in office for what two, three, four, five years if it really wants to change change the country. That's that's a that's a long time in a massive massive commitment. Luke Trill though more in common Polster, he says it's the second fifteen percent strategy that they need to pursue. I having got fifteen percent in the last general election, you need another fifteen percent on that if you want to be secure as the leading party And that second fifteen percent are not necessarily the same people and they don't necessarily have the same values. And they won't necessarily put up with as much I that's the thing. exactly. But there's another reason why those on the left listening to this should be heartened which is that not do too much more of this It's not should just be just just be realistic, which is that if we I lit a cigar here whichich is the which it will carry on all sorts of things. It's all going very well. All sorts of things could get, you know, could go wrong for Burnham But it It's also a real problem for the Tories Because even if reformer on the reformer on the slide, It doesn't automatically tip into the toories moving up. So the dream scenario for labor at some point in the next year is that reform start to in inhabit, you know, nineteen at space sort of nineteen, twenty twenty one. The Tories are on seventeen Conceivably that could flip in an election. so the Tories get twenty two and reform actually end up ation dayay polling eighteen nineteen That is the definition of a split, right. That is That's as bad as what as bad as what labor faced with the SDP and the demo alliesces is it is worse. Well my theory, I can't remember that I've mention it on this podcast which apologies if I have or mentioned it elsewhere, but I think Britain is becoming a left wing country. you look at the attitudes of younger people in particular. So The last thing the right can afford is to be divided Final word because we do have to wrap up when I'm going to take the final word as chairman privilege.. And it's aid it's a bit of advertising because I am launching the equivalent of Reform homeome in the next few days. Wow. Finally, it's going to be called Nine hundred Days, which may be a terrible name for the podcast because We may not have nine hundred days, not podcast, blog And I's what to say Timmy K't Cceled' a rival podcast. the last minute ofal podcast. This is the only podcast I will be. Threewine,w. But basically I'm gonna to begin my Bog almost a podcast again. begin the blog by talking about why despite many reservations I have on almost a daily basis about reform I still think we are going to be the main party of the right. so look out for that blog. And But it will just be known as Reform H home, won't it? Well, I'm al talking about it as reform home and mayaybe I should call it reform homeome but's a great name. But nine hundred days I want to convey the fact that to be The government of this country is a hererculean task. What reform it' trying to achieve to move from so few MPs to No real infrastructure to be the government every single day of the next nine hundred neessay, which is why I think if there was an earlier general election, I'd vote reform because I think we'd be more ready and more appropriate the best government than any other party. But would we be ready Really? We need the nine hundred days and actually one of the changes I've made, you'll be pleased about this, Miranda is I think actually I've become in favor of fixed term parliament. Because it's of the one of the arguments. It's a bit late for that having campaigned against it. Well, I know, I'm admitting it I think part of the explanation is why government has become so stable government. Well poor in Britain is that oppositions don't you know what I've already seen with the Conserative Party, for example, a very good friend of mine in Wiltshire. lovely person just been put on the Conservative candidates list consonservative in any way. sort of and I think the rush now by all the opposition parties to potentially to prepare for an early general election will produce policies and candidates that they' be they'll have to stick with reggardless of whether's an early election and it will not be good for politics actually knowing that you have four years to prepare for office or not knowing that has substantial I'm now in favor of fixed. that's so interesting. You're defecting to the liberal Democrats. Well, I'm also moving potentially on proportional representation. Wh What is going on? I've got three cigars now. This is phenomenal. I'm still a Nigel Farage backer. Yeah Randa. I'll put them all out again So it's really interesting that I first went to work in the House of Commons in nineteen ninety five at the beginning of nineteen ninety five. And do you remember at the time it was John Major? you know, really back to the wall every day, every week it's Willy Wony go for an early election And that feeling of you know will let be early election or not is quite destabilizing in and of itself, I think. Yeah If I was Burnnams team I would make a bloody decision and stick to it one way or the other. Yeah that What? It's not good at sticking decisions.. He might be. Yeah maybe must wrap wrap up So very last word in. No, no, no, it' just a question, to both. Do we do we think on balance that he's going to go for it in election. No, I think'd be mad too him. I don't think he will Tubble is terrified that he will U I think you won't win a majority if he does, but he may He may then go into alliance with the liiberals. And I think the liiberals are Democrats to give them their name. Yeah neeither liberal oror democratic, but yes, they attentally' call the liberal Democrats and I think I think that would be a big Yeah, that would be my estimation. If we had an early election, it would be a labor Lipdam alliance would probably win Well, I think it's very hard though for an incoming Prime Minister to see, considering how brutal politics is, to see that your prrincipal opponents. reform And the Tories. H scrambling to try and figure out how to be ready and dealing with this frankly in an almost existential question of this split right down the middle on the right and not take advantage of that and think, you know what? I want to go through two tough winters I massive unpopularity you know, leave it to the fates when it comes to the global economy and then see how things pitch in sppring of twenty eight and leave myself an option to go in twenty twenty nine I think we should come back to all this because it's actually really interesting because also the greens are on the slide a bit. The greens are down to about eleven And you need that to happen if you're labour because the constituenccyies where you're in contention against the greens. That's too d. ob And the thing with the Lib Dems is it's completely compimentary on the map that will still works, but we will return to this another day. But I think there are probably one hundred and forty Labour MPs who think that even if Andy Berham won a general election, they would lose their seats. True and they're a factor.ue. 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