Reflecting on past political predictions

A betterter help add. Hold on. One second I just need to What if you had a room where no one interrupts No notifications, no expectations J space to talk. Better Hel, theraapy happens in a space that's yours. Visit betterhLp. com slash random podcast for ten percent off your first month of online therapy ACAS powers the world's best podcasts Here's a show that we recommend I'm Monica Reingel, nutritionist, author, and host of the Nutrition Diva podcast We dig into the questions that you are actually asking If it's okay to drink coffee on an empty stomach whether it's possible to retrain your sweet tooth, which ultra processed foods you might actually want to include in your diet? We take a closer look at diet trends. sketchy claims and track down the science so that you can feel more confident about what's on your plate New episodes are released every Wednesday. 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The Nobel Peace Center even called Ground News an excellent way to stay informed. avoid echo chambers, and expand your world view. Get forty percent off by going to ground. news slash twenty twenty six. That's ground. newews slash twenty twenty six Ground. news slash twenty twenty six Hello and welcome to Not anotherother onene. It's a boiling hot day, but we're joining you from the Dep Coolf of our Soho basement for a very special In a way, a sad episode of Not Another One You know, there will be tears in the eye the three of us around this table today because although I'm Miranda Greene in Montgomery in Marton will be with you going forward in the appalling modern Parliance. Steve, What's going on, Steve, you're you're not leaving us. You're going to pop back for the old. Yeah Yeah,t pop back. been touch. Yeah you know, it just to be honest, it was becoming a bit tricky for me because without giving away our secrets of how we produce this don't We tend to record on a Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday is always very busy for me And then when I was looking ahead, it was going to be even busier for me. And have we have a WhatsApp group, although I suspect I've been excluded from it now.. Oh good. And I was going to have to keep on watching, I can't make this one, I can't make this one. And then I'm up to doing the Edinburgh Festival. I've got a live show at King's Place next week on top of all the other things. So you'd have kept on having be without me anyway So that's one of the reasons why I thought easier to say I'm not crying, by theother. I've just had one of Amanda's alman Nuts. And I could hardly speak like Harry Cane. That's gam see what that is that's gamesmanship. Yeah I mean youut. I know it is. U So yeah, I just thought easier for all of us really to say I'm ending it, but not quite as you say, I'll come back and see you. Yeah, well, what I'm hoping is that when you listen, as I'm sure you will, You think, well, I mean, what a load of old You know I'm out of the room they're spouting this utter garbage. I listenight I listen wee back Well it's just the three of you. and I thought, o God, they just all three would just spend the whole time slidging off handy bone. God without me, they're much nicer to us. Well I'm here, you kind of feel like you got to provoke and It there's an element to that. You know Yeah I would sort of get more If I'm with someone who's sort of anti reform, I feel I have to defend reform, but if I'm with reform people I'm sort of more critical, you feel like, you know you've got to have a debate. I don't likeute. There is an interesting dynamic there, isn't it? You know, I suspect You and Ian Tim sometimes reflect differently on Brexit or the war in Iran But when I'm here, You're all Circle wagons Circle wagons. You're interesting that though because what Tim describes is actually the basis of our podcast, isn't it? becausecause we all like to have a bit of a barney in a civilised way. Yeah and debating point even with your own side can make you unpopular but it is a really fun thing to do. Yeah. And that urge to debate and pick a hoold in argument It' presumably why we've all done this as a career and why we're enjoying it so much. Yeah and just look back, I can remember vividly the first one of these. It was almost exactly two years ago during at the start of the twenty twenty four general election was on a really hot day. And if you remember, we were only going to do it for the election campaign but we enjoyed it so much and it was really roaring up the charts and things. So we carried on. And so you know two years later, here we all are Now I'm kind of taking a bow, but it's great that you're And we're meeting on the Monday the day after or the day of our football English footballing triumph Well, that's your opinion in in a minute about the England's achievement. But I now see you, Steve as our rooy of the Roververs super substitute. Yeah when we really need someone who understands L Government it's a big political moment. We are looking forward to welcome you back and you will always for us part of the family if you're not going to be with us every. Yeah, you'd be great Tim was your idea in the first place. The original idea was to do like the week in Westminster on ready for used to do an end of term discussion, which I used to chair. and I think that was going to be the model. but of course the challenge is here if you chair 've got to express views as well and getting that hybrid right is quite a challenge But I shouldn't push rival podcasts, but I will be carrying on doing the other rock and roll politics podcasts. I didn't know you had podcast. kept that which is twice a week. so Yeah, ye. With a third podcast, you never stop thinking about politics ever which love we're allot never' vot. I know. I know. I do find I did find particularly over this weekend actually, I really tried to take a mental break, but you can't because there's just so much happening. the story. It's so interesting. role and on and on and people are saying interesting things and I suppose At the heart of it is perhaps the slight puzzle and the interregnum So there's even more sort of speculation and interesting theorizing than usual and dragging yourself away to think about something else. I quite envied the people who are football. fans actually because at least there was something else to focus on over the weekend. I met three or four cabinet ministers at the weekend different things. They are so unsure of what's happening. This interregnum There's been nothing like it. So when Gordon Brown took over without a contest, without a proper contest, he had been Chancellor for ten years. They kind of knew his team Who would be moving in? They had a pretty clear idea about a lot of his cabinet. They just don't know Whether they're going be in, whether're going to beack, some going be obviously. And it is a very compelling but unique time in British politics. Yeah, and the world keeps turning as well. That's the thing. You know All of our speculation has been centered on domestic agenda because that's what Berham talks about. Yeah know But there's a NATO summit going on this week know Straits of Hormuz You know potentially going to be difficult as well in the next few weeks. I mean, there's all sorts that Berham's going to have to turn his attention to instantaneously. Yeah? Absolutely. Yeah He's been very quiet over there. I's crying. I know. Well that's the question. You're all being really high minded, but the question I really want to ask is to Ian is are you enjoying England's success, Ian as a Scot Some of your fellow countrymen have not exactly been England supporters. I don't know if anyone's seen it, but there's a fantastic These things usually don't work, but for one of the leading online gambling firms, there's a great film involving am soon I've seen it,'sill. And Gordon Stracken sort of steals the show pretending to be Mexico presumably they're now going to make a film in which they pretend to be Norway and I'm in the unusual position in that I always support England as long as you're not playing or or beating Scotland. and we're now at that very, very awkward moment where I've been magnanimous and I support England And now I think you might actually win the thing and it starts to get really a bit troubling, but we'll see Why Isn't magnanimous one of those things you're not allowed to say about yourself? I pututting that out there Should Why don't I say it, Ian? You've been amaz magnanimous there. I think you've ruined it with the be. Listen, don't look at me, I'm a tennis fan, and I have absolutely no understanding football whatsoever, so I will not be held responsible. No way won't be Do you remember that one of the most famous commentaries ever when Norway last beat us the commentary said, Lord Nelson, Margaret Fcher, your guys got one hell of a beating tonight? Hopefully they won't be in a position to say that after the next month. Yeah not going to be easy. Not tactful, notot tactful. Well, so we did promise the listers listeners a u Question and answer episode today, which seems appropriate as you've said, Steve we're kind of Rounding off two glorious years. let's call Two years in this room together and obviously sometimes down the line catching up with each other as well. So we've had quite a lot of questions in And I've written mine down on a little piece of paper because my phone doesn't turn off properly. So correct me if I'm misattributing, but we've had some really good ones U I tell you what, there's a very good one which I think might be up your rally, Tim, which is a gentleman called Alan. I sent two good questions. But one of them is right to the story of the moment, which is, you know, the background is a huge story hitting reform, possibly the most difficult moment for reform So far. I seem to come along every month, but yah so Do they? I don't think it's genuinely a tricky moment. I think that is true, but sort there's a moment that lots of people think form of pe Right, Okay, well that's been wishful thinking a lot bit, hasn't it? H they Have they hit the ceiling?. So Allan describes himself as reform curious But he says he is put off by some of the individuals and some of the tone and the way that the debate was conducted by reform people as he calls it Brash stern, which could be read either way and positively rude What do you think about that? he picks out a couple of individuals, I don't know if it's rude in me perhaps to pick them out, but he does talk about Zir Yusf and Matt Goodwin. This is interesting, isn't it? Be you know politics is a knock about business, it's a cruel game peopleeople are vicious about each other, but it does seem to be potentially something? No I have a lot of sympathy with this. I remember Douglas Murray once saying that he wanted to retrain as a nurse because he could preface every remark then As a nurse, I support the murder of the first born. And people will have to say, Well, as a nurse to then. It's obviously silly, but I think if you come across as a reasonable person, if people think they're someone you'd like to have as a neighbour, if you come across as someone who people basically trust and think decent. There potentially a policy of deportation of illegals, which is controversial, but people do not want a policy like that in the hands of someone who might be capricious or someone you wouldn't try. And I find with television, when I'm on television making the brilliant arguments that I do come off the screen you know and people rarely say, Tim, that was even better than your last brilliant argument. say I didn't like your shirt or you looked at how you didn't it very well or you know image and communicate. maybe it shouldn't matter to someone but objecting who you are when you're in an argument you just look like you're reasonable. Don't get angriry so And I think there's an incredibly important in that question. Reform do look too angry too often. And I'm afraid Ardir Yustf has many qualities, many real qualities, but he is not helping, I think his the party by some of the way he And it talks about opponents because they are opponents, they're not enemies. you know. Part of what we podcast is trying to do. We disagree on lots of things around this table, but I know we're all in it for the right reasons. so I think you know, all over the Western world, there are populist parties. They're going reform is not going to go away But you're right, it's a testing moment and that is one of the challenges we have to meet. Interesting, interesteresting. Ian, what do you think about that? Well Not enemies but opponents and therefore the tone matters and might be putting some people off. The tone obviously matters. I mean, it's politics is I would say is fifty percent aesthetics. I mean, it is it's about as you described to, sort of who you choose to hang out with, who you would be associated with So reform has a problem. I mean I'm sure there are going to be questions. Do we want to dive into the whole reform thing in terms of think go O go on then go on. I think be my guest. sort of how serious is this? you know, after this Times Sunday Times story, which you know, have to be fairly you know careful, careful about it. though I don't think Have the have the basics, you know, the basics haven't been denied do think though, it's interesting Farage's reaction And he he attacked the he attacked he attacked the establishment, which I think is a is actually a smart way to go about it because I you know, I Wout getting into the details of who's right and who's wrong in this case, when I turned on radio four this morning and I had to listen to Harriet Harman talkalk about the mechanics of this farraage story and the ethics of it and talk about trust in our democratic system I just thought if I was a reform voter, And this was the political establishments response. It would feel to me like a political establishment stitch up And then I open the times this morning and there's the story about migrant care workers twwelve workers from Cameroon sponsored one hundred and eighty dependents to join them in the year to March. These are rules that just set up under the Conservatives. It's a full account of it all in the tim And I would if I was a reform voter, which I'm clearly not, I'd feel Really, just the amount of criticism of Fage, which may be justified. And then here you have another example, that's why people are voting reform. That's why they talk about the Unit Party. You talk about a system on migrant workers which is just is completely nuts. you look at the numbers Look at the way Boris mishandled it. So I'm just I' in two minds about this that if reformers to lose Fage at some point then I think really serious trouble. The question is whether he can fight back because there is p crowd and to the voted kind of voters that like Farage. There's an argument to be made. I think, about no and if I if I was him I would say Look at No wonder the establishment are fighting so hard because they want to stop them. know I want to stop the boats. they want to stop me becoming Prime Minister. They want to prevent real change. I'm talking too much. I'll try and talk less partularly the subjects of forform. There's a fundamental issue here Does Nigel Farage in his heart want to be Prime Minister If he wants to be Prime Minister, there's things he's doing and not doing in its detained courting This is my question. since I joined Reform with were much more gone up in the opinion polls, I don't know whether he's really answered that question and he needs to because He is not having regular meetings with his team. He's not organizing HQ, his personal sort of life may not be exactly as it should be, you know, some of the hangers on. It's got to address this stuff. and someone who really wanted that office would do so. Yeah. And that for me is the fundamental issue. here and I think it is as likely to galvanize him into salting these things out than what I thinks to be the poplin out is youre to walk away And I think the next few weeks it'll be clear which way he's going to choose. Steve, what do you think? Because I have to say a lot of the kind of slightly drunken uh chat, in SW one at all the End of Year partarties, is Are you ready for the Clackton by election There's quite a lot of that, and Tim, you're quite right, it may be extremely previous. Well, that isn't in Nigel Farager's control the might he could if he decided to walk away if he walked away that's wful kind of scrutiny. But there could have to be this recall thing which could trigger a by election in his constituency But I think that is Tim poses a valid question because If you see him given his poll lead and people see him as a potential prime minister as the sort of unofficial leader of the opposition We've all know people in that position basically focus every day seven days a week on getting themselves and their party ready for government, let alone winning the election. I watch Blair at close handand, Cameron at a close hand And you can't be flauffing around doing anything else. that absolute focus. I don't think he's ever shown And I think it is because he is torn. He's quite a self aware person And there's a bit of him who I think doesn't want it And until he resolves that inner dilemma, it will be an ongoing thing. But I think there are other questions beyond the immediate kind of allegations about the money and the people around him, which is again, a real professional outfit would have, I think, responded differently. Clearly the line on Sunday was because they all said it. The Sunday Times is a Labour newspaper. Well, that was a kind of ridiculous response when their columnist are Dominic Lawson Colt Roberts, Colville I mean about labour at the last election and the time newspapers are probably more hostile to reform than any other paper. Yeahestig that investigations team has gone after Labour and and none of theenters of the story have been denied, but yeah, I mean I just thought You know, if you're going to sort of deffend yourself. you sit down and probably spend the whole they must have known about it on Saturdays, the whole of Saturday morning, the whole of Saturday whole of Saturday even coming up with the most convincing defense. Farge goes on at his best he's one of the better communicators And you go for it, but this generic old that it's a labour newspaper bl blah, you know That was we And I do think it is interesting that in these bialections that were're sort of seen as so potentially significant for reform They couldn't find decent As another example of just signs that from all the talk about, o you know they could get ready Andrew Mar wrote after the local collections, Farrage will be Pime Minister I think there are big questions and not kind of peopleeople just saying it because they hope it will happen. I think these are serious questions about reforms re.ough I think I disagree with you on one thing though, Steve. I was with someone friend who knows Farage very well, not Tim, who was describing his routine And u, you know, he was describing the work involved in, I mean, the sort of traveling about flying around by helicopter you know, speech over lunch, fundraising lunch, he's raising it he's having to raise most of the money for the party Some of it in relatively small amounts of money actually, but with fundraising lunches in places where your party Tim is trying to build an infrastructure and then A bunch of stuff in the afternoon, an hour to rest and then a bigger fundraising dinner and then back to London and then doing the same same thing the following So I think Steve the idea he's not he's not lazing about and going to the but I he's lazy But I think but I think but I think It may be the case that he's knackeered Actually because he done he's done years of this. So I mean the best advice you you could give him is to actually, which is difficult to do because there's about to be a change of Prime mininister, but it's takingen time off. but I don't quite see how you do that. plenty of time off facing the broadcast is't? So you know, one of the reasons why theado radio four was full of labour people slking him off this morning is because No one can get him to come on Yeah, I've turned down day program four days in a row, you know, trying to not really I'm doing the world at one on Tuesday is my I think the tactic though of not talking to the media and hope the story go away is not working. Tim that that was absolutely fascinating. When you had got to the absolute heart of it there with the question, which is does the guy want to be Prime Minister, because if you Yeah, that's sorry, that's what I was put I'm not saying he's lazy. of course you can't say someone Like Farj iss lazy. I mean he's everywhere I think he is tall And so that is I think And that's a very interesting position for a leader of a potential governing party be in Be you know that if you well there are two options and he keeps predicting an early election and maybe that's confirmation bias and he wants there to be one. but there's either a very, very intense to ten months and a run up to an early election or he's got to dig in for up to three years prereparing a policy programme is going to get even more relentless And then If he wins or he is the largest party try and be prrime Minister for five years which at that point takes him into what nearly seventy, I suppose. So you can under you can understand he's been at it now. He's been a main character in British politics, whether you love him or lohe him fifteen twenty years We probably need to take our first break, but just before we go, I do think this is absolutely fascinating, cuts the heart of what's going on at the moment and what will happen over the next couple of years I did hear the Um Conservative peer also pphologist Robert Haywward talking about this, and I spoke to him as well myself, for a piece And he says really there is a bedrock of reform support now who don't care any of this. And they'll happily think, yeah, witch hunt, witch hunt, it's the establishment Cital E out to get our our guy, but that's not a lot or enough the reform voters and to win you need the other chunk of people who really might care about this stuff and might respond completely differently to the idea that he doesn't like scrutiny. that's think the big picture here is Alie Banner may well mess up I've said this before. I think Britain is becoming more left wing country And the fact is that the right being divided in a left wing country is fatal And I think Tourories and reform are spending so much time being antagonistic towards each other at the moment. I don't think there's necessary to be a pact, but The first thing is that the overt hostility needs to end and then possibilities happen of some kind of cooperation. But at the moment the right is divided and going in the wrong direction. Right, we should take a break with that intriguing thought. Not a pack, not a pack. Definitely not a pack. might talk about most of my life in my twenties working for the Lib Dems would say, Not a pack, not a pack. Right, let's take a break Better helpelp add. Hold on. One second I just need to What if you had a room where no one interrupts No notifications, no expectations just space to talk. Better Help, Therapy happens in a space that's yours. Visit betteretterhLp dot com slash random podcast for ten percent off your first month of online therapy Why does the same news story sound completely different depending on where you read it That confusion is exactly what Ground News was built to solve. It's an app and website that compares news coverage, allowing you to see how each story is framed across the political spectrum and the world. For the recent story about the US signing the memorandum of undernderstanding with Iran, their vantage plan shows us that, rightight Leaning Daily Express framed it as a historic peace deal, while left Leaning NPR notes it resulted in the president's approval hitting record lows data like each publication's source of funding and a factuality rating. The Nobel Peace Center even called Ground News an excellent way to stay informed. avoid echo chambers, and expand your worldview. Get forty percent off by going to ground. newews slash twenty twenty six. That's ground. newews slash twenty twenty six. Ground d. newews slash twenty twenty six. Okay, welcome back to our Q and A edition of Not anotherother One. And I've got one for you actually. We have a gnder called, but obviously I'll be very interested about the other things as well gentleman called John who says should the Tories get ready to refresh Pite word, their team On the basis that you know, you've got Andy Burnham about to arrive Andy Berham's cabinet, fresh start for the goovernment. Should it also be a fresh start for the Tory frront bench And again, I don't know how impolite this is, but he does single out the shadow Chancellor Mel Stride for criticism saying, you know, it's an open goal. the economy Do you think it's the moment to do that? or do you think that the Tories should just let the Burnham incoming government do their thing for a bit and resond? No have to she has to shake up the shadow cabinet team. has to bring in some unusual and surprising people and on the No offense to Maail Stride. It's a very difficult job being Shadow Chancellor Ask, all sorts of people, Michael Portillo Pizzer Lillily, all their, you know History is listered with ex shadow Chancellors. I would If it happens And if there is a shuffle and Mil Stride goes to another post in the shadow cabinet prettyty much nailed on the Claire Catino who is the who shadowing Ed Miller band on energy and all that stuff would switch because that their contest in the commons are really, you know, very, very feisty. She, of course is you know, was it was in government, so it's partly' been as stories is are partly responsible for the whole policy architecture that there is on energy policy. but she's in a very interesting way shifted shift That's the most wonderfully polite way ofing N noticing how Clerin has completely abandoned all the things they did in government and now attax them. I mean speaking to it at that time I mean, she was She was she was trying to shift during her time in government But no I think it's actually quite refreshing the way that she's essentially come out and said, The stuff the Tori did was pretty much a disaster and she would start again. would be astonished if she's not Shadow Chancellor by the Autumn Can I just congratulate Steve on not taking the debate then on energy and climate change and responding for one last I and Steve clash on that issue? He may have been working up to it. We' working up to it? or were you pondering? You were hing on the ceiling as if you your might being a. I think the Tories are in a very forget about energy policy not forever, but for the next few minutes. I think they're in a very interesting position because I do sense reform are in trouble. I mean, it's just my judgment. It's not what I do hope they're in trouble, but I do judge. Judg nothing as Tony ment said, nothing personal at all about any it's all about polishy of personality Um Therefore by implications. There is opportunity here for the Cervatives. but I think Aidenock has got to think things through much more deeply than she has. She's turned into an effective public performer as everyone has discussed. But for example, facing Burnham is going to be very different. Now he's going to start out with the intention of for example, doing Primus' questions very differently. Now she's made her name by being pretty aggressive and robust He's going to try and do it. differently, will that aggressive, robust approach work, but that's kind of shallow stuff. I still don't think she's thought through properly a project for explaining what went wrong over those fourteen years and how she's going to put it And that involves hard, deep Th kick And as I say, perhaps some space will open up if the Farage story continues and But I haven't seen evidence of that. She has grown as a public performer as everyone has said. And what about the front bench team? because that was our question from which John is, you know, is it time for them Can I quote another burns? Yeah Danny Finkelstein from the Times on a podcast he does always says, donon't forget public hasn't heard of any of them So she could reshuffle a team who no one has heard of put in place another team who no one has heard of And so I don't think that is the key for her. It is thinking through. went wrong over those fourteen years, acknowledging the what it was and then putting it right. I mean, this is the essence of opposition from a defeated governing partarty and it can take eighteen years as it did after ' seventy nine for labour It can be quite quick. I mean, Kir Starmer turned things around, but he was hugely helped by those fourteen years of conservative governments. and that deep thinking has to be U the the the responsibility over this this summer. and this Labour goovernment will feel different Now as we all know, you never know in advance whether it's going to work or not with a new Prime Minister, you can't be sure But it might. And so her challenges will deepen And And that's the toughest because she she could sack her shadow chanceces tomorrow and put someone else in. And I agree Claire Katine would be a good replacement U That's not that's not. she needs to do some of that deep thinking of the kind that Kir Stama did in the run to being. No I mean you're right. But I know what you mean to do. O our very first podcast, we analyzed the Ovious fragilities of the Tories in the twenty four election and the less obvious but stark fragilities of star R under labour and the lack of preparation for what b. So you're absolutely right, and you're right that he still won a landslide But she might not have the gift of Liz Truss's party gate and all the things that help with that life. No for sure. I mean, I'm not sure I totally agree that it really doesn't matter who the shhadowed Chancer is, for example for example Because one of the things that Bidenock herself has got better at over time from a shaky start is using her position as leader of the opposition when there's a running story. Yeah at good point the running. You know what I mean? And actually Shadow Chancellor has the same platform has an incredible platform and The economy is the most important territory for the Tories to do well on. Yeah Al has been, always will be and a labour government em powerower without decent growth with a terrible fiscal situation, with the national debt where it is, all the rest of it is inherently vulnerable on that. So I'm not sure actually. I think if she had you know, key lieutenants who were visible and had I'm not saying that the deep thinking doesn't matter, of course, but I think it shouldn't be down to just her. partarticularly if you were to take seriously the idea that she'd be offering herself as a government and waiting at the next election Yep. No No you're right and of course looking back sort of Gordon Brown as shadow Chancellor was absolutely central to the development of new labour economic. policy from ninety two actually before Tony Blair was a leader to ninety seven So yeah, it is it's clearly a key appointment, but I don't think In a way, that's the easy bit still. the appointments the easy bit. Whoever can can it would then have to make the most of it her deciding I'll move Mel Stride and bring her in That's one of our easier tasks this summer. Yeah There's a way in which reshuffle stories can feel quite superficial, they shouldn't be, but they can feel quite superial. Ated to people like Pritty Patel who you know basically his home seecretary that presided over the Boris Wave those aret decisions that matter because brereaking away from the the legacy of the lar Torory government, that matters, and Pr Patella has not really G good job, I think, but she's a real easier attack line than the son of people have attacked that. And I think that there are lookingooking at the trajectory for the Tories, there are of course, there are a number of more than just two, but I think two big, you potential outcomes. The first is, as Tim outlined It may be that nothing that they do can really make a difference to the fact that even if you take Farage out of the equation, you could be heading for a politics in which The Torory can get back up to twenty three, twenty four, twenty five, but then reform never really sink below sixteen seventeen You add those two things together and then the geographical dis a mess. That's a complete mess. That is that's labor Solid victory to landslide territory almost no matter what you do. they've got seventy lived Dams as well. That's disgusting thing is they've got that possibility But there is another potential outcome which is a reconnection for the Tories and A Burnham who had Burnham who will be looking to try and make that first outcome reality. also creates a lot of opportunities for the Tories because of his preoccupations. Firstly It'll be much easier for them to talk about the suburbs and to try and connect with suburban England, but particularly England and Middle England. the most of the rhetoric conversation and the agenda will be urban in tone. And the historical evidence is that the Tories It's kind of solid Tory vote. revives when peopleeople in the suburbs or in where large numbers of Tory voters potential Tory voters live feel that they have something to lose or that they're being ignored that's the first thing. And then on the economy striking a sort of pro business stant and then at energy and energy costs. You put that together, there's a great opportunity for her in Bernamism unless He gets an enormous boost in the polls, goes for an early election and then sort of smashes everyone in the spring. So I think that's really interesting. I would just say one thing about that suburban theory is that the suburbs are not what they were. True A generation ago and the people who live there are not the same people and that is the reason why the Lib Dems now pick up those seats is because those are people who are actually urban voters who can't afford to live in the city anymore. Yeah. You know, somebody like Rob Ford at Manchester University will tell you It's not just London. and therefore the Libdams winning bits of Surrey from the Tories, it's also the exerbs of all of the major cities. and so in a sense that demographic is a little bit how the map used to look in the Tory Heyday, you know, so I'm just not I mean, I understand what you're saying on the pololicy pitch to that part of England, I suppose we're talking about, that might feel ignored burnham, but I'm just not sure the people who live in those areas are the same as the ones who used to. that's certainly what theopologists say. They say that territory totally different now they're all graduates and they've all been priced out of the cities and They have very liberal values. I'm not saying that it's straightforward, not by any stretch of the imagination, but I just mean that there's something there There's a potential route back Another dynamic is that the Dems will be disagree with Berham maybe on defense, but broadly The agenda They'll agree with right to kiss Burnham Whatnce the change of voting system? Right? So they'll approve of that. They approve of localism and greater powers to local governments, so they'll I wouldn't hesitate I'll give you trauma Miranda if I mention you're cross party working commissions on the Constitution and all that sort of stuff Well there's terrible memories comingggeringing But honestly get ready for that. get ready for He will say on the Constitution and voting He's building towards a manifesto where he wants to have an offer and he will say he's saying we've got to do politics differently partart of that will be The moment Davy attacks him something, he'll say, I'm really disappointed. I thought we were trying to do politics differently. So to try and get if you're a sort of hard pressed suburban ot who's worried that about you've just being fired or your friends marketing company is laying off twenty percent of its staff. I mean it's really tough for people out there. Yeah. Well this is why I theory pitch on the economy is so important. Yeah don't I don't think what we're looking for from the liberals. you've got me thinking. I mean other things they've got I mean, Ed Davy has kept on going on about social care Well, Andny Burnham tried to introduce it when he was health Secretary and will no doubt try to do something on it Again And so there are lots of common connections. I mean, there isn't a common connection with those so called old orange books. Liberals I mean, there's been Andy Burnham has been absolutely explicit in his rejection of what he calls neeoiberalism. So that orange book free market liberal wing will not have much in common But I think there will be remember Red Davy was part of the coalition cabinet. Yeah no. I mean, so yeah, he He's got. Maybe his left wing as you think? No, no, no, I don't think he is. I don't think he would say. I think he would say himself he's a small L liberal on economics. policy but when you actually look then at the specific policies, if there were to have to be a coming together in a hung Parliament t I mean, I do actually completely agree with that, but we will have to see what the Berhen policies actually are, of course, before we work out whether others will be able to attack them. Right, I've done three questions. Has anybody else got any good questions? I've got one let you answer first as the chair Crosspaul Claret, a great name asks them Is it appropriate for the Department of Culture and Media not individual MPs. disengage from one of the UK's largest media platforms in that we find a minority of horrid ies andort algorithms with all platforms. And I'm talking about not another one. I think you can answer this how you wish, obviously. We're tal talk aboutGB News. What are they talking about this is Lisa Nandy last week who is also obviously the culture sectreor. at the same time she announced her own personal withdrawal from the platform She said that she was taking my department the Department of Culturure Sport out as well So I wouldn't have advised her to do it and I don't think it was a good thing to do. but I think the concerns about what X has become irely val. I think a government has to communicate everywhere and it's slightly cutting off your nose despite your face. I remember during the COVID pandemic when the government was trying to reach everyone with the information about precautions but also about the vaccination programe when we finally had it And they were entirely failing to communicate with most of the people in the area where I live in West London, because most of the people in the area where I live are watching Al Jazeera and speaking Arabic and, you know, other mother tongues, And we know now that in those sections of society, the vaccination rates were horribly low. I just think as a government, your responsibility is to communicate all the time everywhere everyone Having said that I have colleagues and I have a lot of political contacts who are you know mixed race for example or take a very entrenchant position on some of the big kind of cultural battles of the time. Their life is impossible on on X And they are being hounded out of the public square by people who are racists or violent misogynists And Elon Musk calls it free speech. It isn't free speech as we in Britain understand it becausecause it is actually somewhere where only some people are allowed to speak freely and others are threatened if they do so Pblems with free speech absolutism are real and it's not actually part of British culture, it's something we have imported from America Be a lot of American culture are either actually to be fair to America, but is there more Yeah Yeah Steve, was it the right decision? I don't think so. I mean feel torn at times like we all do with you know, And when we get slagged off, there was a moment last week. I tweeted S Burnham was right not to take questions from really set up on for that I absolutely got s ass the usual thing your entire family works with this government you know and all this kind And if only they knew how much that entire family loed what I say and do. tellell us more they would abuse me on other grounds. And so when these ser Steld they fear without like that. And then I spent twenty minutes, Sall I reply to them? I replied to each of them But then I looked about and then I thought, well I'm going off this thing But of course within half an hour's back on. And then lots of people were supporting me say, you know he speaks independently, which I do actually Um And so I think you just have to accept the algorithms are weird now much weirdder than they were on Twitter We're going gonna to get attacked. We all do no, wait a minute, wait a minute. That's criticism for what you've said. Yeah. That's not saying I know where you live, I'm going to come to your house, I'm going to kill you, I'm going to rape you. How dare you, brown woman? But't can't speak to some extent presumably these people can be identical That's the problem here. He has canceed all recourse anything that that is said on EXod that is the issue. And of course, any of these problems with any discriminatory or unpleasant activity unless it's directed at you yourself. Yeah You don't see it, so you don't understand the problem. Do you see what I mean? No you don't see the attacks. No that is appalling. And if you look at whatsa A you still on? Are you still on it? I'm still on it. I'm not going to leave, you know I don't see why I should be hounded out of having conversations about things that I care about Well, that's what I feel. know But I never say where I am and I try not to give anything away that might help people who are, you know truly malign intent because they are allowed to roam free and to threaten and to harass people without recourse to anything because X is no longer interested in any protections for people who use it I remember we for a brief period invited people to send us food and cakes in them Quite rightly We we were warned by someone that actually don't do that. you know, you you're making yourself vulnerable The people do have to be very careful on social media. They have introuced stuff like this to Andy herself You couldn't reply to her unless you were someone who followed her And people say, well, you're not being accountable. But the trouble is But if you put your replies on, I don't get it as a white man, but if you are a makes race if you're a woman, there is an awful lot of abuse. And however much you know the most stupid thing in English sort of languages sticks and stonees, they break my bones, but names never hurt you. They do hurt people you know and it's not nice. and But I think back to the question I think it was particularly odd really for Her criticms of a platform are valid, but she is the seecretary of state for culture, media and sports. She can actually do something about the regime that the ex operates in. But the conversation within government months or last couple of years has been What on earth do you do about the reality that for reasons we've discussed on this podcast? someomeone like What's his name Tommy Robinson has when you actually look at the numbers and look at the reach, him commenting on the news has much bigger reach That's just one person amplified in ways we all understand, has much bigger reach than a lot of mainstream news outlets. So if you're sitting there in the heart of a government department, you're looking at this it's really very disturbing. So how do you respond? And I agree with almost everything you said, Miranda, Ultimately, don't you in those circumstances, you have to be in the arena as a government department as a cabinet minister. You can't vacate that space. it's not going to disappear. Yeah I agree with that. I agree with that. E Lar master force is partly responsible for making Rupert Lower phenomenon in British politics is actively supporting him. So The platform is not just a jungle You know, I don't understand, you know, my Twit account, the number of followers hasn't changed for agge. I don't look it anymore. There there's something about the system is odd. You know, you go up or down, something is just It's weird. I don't understand how it works Indeed.sight. I have a break then have Yeah, should we have a break? and then I've got some more very different ones. Yeah Yeah. Okay, we'll be back in a sec Better helpel add Hold on. One second I just need to. What if you had a room where no one interrupts No notifications, no expectations. J just space to talk. Better Help, Therapy happens in a space that's yours. Visit betteretter hLp d. com slash raandom podcast for ten percent off your first month of online therapy This summer, Fandool is the best place to bet on goals. Including equalizers, Uhuh Vollys? Yeah, headters. Every goal is worth more on fanool. So let there be goals. New customers get three hundred fiftyteen bonus bets guaranteed when you bet five dollars for seven days. twenty one plus in presents and select states. First online real money wager only minimum five dollars wager required for seven consecutive days. five dollars fif first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withrawable bonus bets, which expiire seven days after receipt restrictions applies, see full terms at fanDoolot com slash sportsbook gambling problem, call one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred My reset Okay, welcome back to our Q and A. I've got an interesting sort of big picture one here Steve, what do you think about this? Somebody called Big Gaza. Big Gaza. Bigaza with Big Gaza with the bigig picture says what do we expect first an Irish or Scottish referendum e, a reunification of Ireland referendum or another Scottish Independence referendum And you know bearing in mind, he also draws attention to the horrific, horrific scandal affecting the former DUP. leader and will that damage Unionismory Uter craziness of the SNP's recent history and whether that would Well, on Scotland, the reality is given all that's going on at Westminster No Prime Minister is going to give the go ahead for a referendum And so they are stuck and in a way the paralysis has helped the SMP to some extent, because as long as they are seen to be protesting against the Westminster to go back to the Westminster system. So easy to frame arguments against Westminster in inverted commerce. But there we are. that's Andy Burnham is not going to say, yeah, sure, have that referendum. So it's not going to happen And in Ireland, I don't think it's so much about although it's astonishing this DUP case and what emerged It will be it's much more to do with what triggers it via the Good Friday agreement, isn't it? Yeah has to be held both in the Republic and in Northern Ireland. Yeah. So I suspect in both cases, it's still a long way off. in Will we get another Scottish indie ref Not not anyime soon No, it's just it's it's just not going to happen for the reasons that Steve said, there's no way that a British Prime Minister is going to agree to it. so you can essentially say no Irish politics. in the Republic is obviously it's changing very, very fast But I don't think the I don't think the situation there. means you can look forward to a border poll any anytime soon. Chin Fein is really strong both sides of the border, right? which is presumably what our It is B GAaza. but that doesn't It's watching carefully. It is but that doesn't that doesn't necessarily to and we know this with Wales and with Scotland as well that doesn't equate to people saying actually they want to make break the massive constitutional change And there's just no indication when you dig into the poll and talking about Scotland now that peopleople actually really really want it. I mean, if you if you if you don't want to get back into the Brexit thing, but it's about trade offs. if you mention a notion in the abstract of people and said, you want this, they'll say Yeah, sure, give it a go. If you then present them with a series of trade offffs which is maybe what maybe what the remain campaign didn't do successfully in twenty sixteen thenen the numbers the numbers, the numbers change Regular listeners will know my view there's enough going on in the world in terms of Northern European security without breaking up the European without breaking up the UK are rejoining the EU. I think the the B legacy the Brexit legac is less the trade also I agree with what you've said I think whether you will remain or Leave. You know what how convoluted the process of disentangling ourselves from the EU was, you know I know it's been tested is that If you know, Scottish voters I don't know in the Irish content, but Scottish voters said. How long do you want to spend unscrambling a three hundred year old Union because it will be a long and arduous process and that we didn't have the last time Scotland voted I think the only danger is the further we get from the Brexit process, the less potent that is. But at the moment, I think it does score as one of the best arguments against leaving the UK because it was a it was a horrible set of years and whatever your position, you don't want to revisit anything like that. There's also you're becoming much more anti Brexit and I'm going. No what I'm here is.' Sitting here enjoying this. wasers. we can just relax ands our job is done. We've convered it. But we're still out Steve. It's a fpiric victory Definitely not But just being what's the wordag?ag You ha. But there is great there's a great opportunity for Burnham in Scotland As we said a few, as we noted a few weeks ago, just he has to get a pitch. Right because he can say This is new politics. I'm working with Ed Davy on reforming the voting system veryy much up for talking in a constructive way to the SNP, but not if you're going to shout abuse at me or I mean do you want to actually you interested in practicalities and fixing things rather than point scoring? And the SMP say no they're only interested in story which so far, which is what I doing. It has served the well so far. Let's be honest. Yeahep. So I had this follows off very neatly actually, which is a question from Stephen in Glasgow What have you got wrong in the last two years Now I mean, how long Oh goodness? How long have we got Who wants to go first? I'll go first I'll go first with the Iran warar kind of U Whs better and wor What is happening here today? It's like which are unburdening themselves. Yeah. Which I assumed that they knew what they were doing and that the regime was about to fall and and it didn't and here we are I may that larger larger g that But I'm going to do the opposite particularly because there's a special edition with Steve here. And we have got plenty while visit that, but actually F few weeks. We had a purple patch actually, I'm sure it's been purple the whole two years, but do you remember we all agreed on that Jeremy Hunt shouldn't have Maybe there's an national insurance cut ofations. How different we would now be with the defence if that money, which Jeremy Hutner campaigned on the Ty leadership, his defence was number one priority, then he became chancellor and he just cut taxes. He didn't put that in defence Yeah We all agreed on that. I also, I think our very first edition Be we all were talking about the Diane Abbott business. and we all said Kiss Aara may regret his mistreatment of Diane Abbott And if you aren't good to people on the way up, you may find that when you're on the down, you're vulnerable. So I'm answering the opposite of the question. It Gius, you've managed to quest about what we've got wrong into what we got right. But I think just because itve' not the last decision because we're seeing you againste We have occasionally got things really right And our listeners do like actually when we rise above party politics at Trump with our political experience analyze an ofvent like we did with our Brexit series recently. so I've completely failed to answer the question right. I'll tell you one going back to that earlily st, I completely agree with you. I remember early on I think if people can they listen back to the first If they listen back, I think they would see we got quite a lot right to be honest to again not answer the question. And to the point where those listening wouldn't have been that surprised by what has followed in the two years. But one thing I think in that period I got wrong is I had the Rachel Reeves July statement in twenty twenty four. We must have done a podcast around that time I had no idea the degree to which it was going to unravel. The winter fuel paymentin pay Yeah which is because described as the original sin sour It' become almost as defining for Starmer and Reeves as the poll tax for Thatcher towards the end of first prop. And of course that was a huge policy. This was small on and Obviously by August, it was becoming clear, but I think when she announced it, I don't think we all gathered and said this is going to probably finish the two of them off. But that's when people one of the company me I speak to at the weekend, they say, they still get it on the doorstep. and people haven't clocked. they've changed it It's still Ces up again and again And I had no idea it was going to be so interesting. explosive. But it was like a sort of stink bomb, wasn't it? sort of let off right at the beginning that still It was flying the air. So it was july twenty fourth, it was just weeks after the election. and a deliberate act. They deliberately wanted to sound T T I have to say I always thought it was Emperorors new clothes with Bves. I remember going to Ala Darlings's Memorial serervice, which was a gathering of the labour plans in, you know in Scotland. and A few of us who not members of the Labour Labour Can, but thought Alisid Darne was fantastic and knew him well. and was it was a moment where she was being anointed, and she spoke And it wasn it wasn't her finest speech. Let's be polite and let's be, you know respectful about it. But it just it wasn't like watching Blair and Brown in opposition. And never I never thought she was she was going to cut it. Sorry to sound cruel. anyyway. Who wants to go next to? Miranda, haveave youve got everything right? I do remember getting so interested in the kind of existential threat to the Tory partarty. election, you know, and obviously we started right at the beginning as the election was called, didn't we? And then sort of we the campaign the way through And I remember we all did a sort of sweepstake on how bad it was going to be as a night for the Touries and what the eventual number and I think I said that they would be down to less than hundred MPs so I got that wrong because I remember you got it right in you said one hundred twenty and you pretty much bang on. How got that I don't I don't but I will go back and listen because I think it's I think it's sort of interesting. but yeah, I mean I think the interesting thing is is we all have our own prejudices, don't we? and we all have our own blind spots And that's actually why I've found these conversations so valuable because it's a sort of corrective. you, you know, you realize that your own kind of Not so much biases but your own sort of habitual thoughts or ways of analysing things may be missing some really important point, which isn't Oftten isn't an opinion, it's just a different set of priorities, which has been very interesting One thing I would love to do is off air, Miranda, youite we all have spoken a lot about without getting into some of the detail about your social care challenges that you live through on a daily basis and I think we should and We should definitely do a special edition on that. you know Maybe it's over the summer, but learning about what we've you we've never done a special ear on defence and your knowledge and Actually that's something perhaps we could do soon as delve into some of the issues well As some of us have got real authorities. I don't quite know what my specialist subject is yet. I have to come home something. Everything. Yeah well, that's a problem, it's not Yeah. Everything. Jack ofable trades. Well, loads more questions though.. But I mean but we are doing? Wening out Maybe one more, one more? Well, they say go for it if you've got one another really good one, There's Andy from Manchester Oh no actually hold on, it's Liverpool. Oh no he's confused about where he's from. Yeah ye It was all going so well. He says' that lowering the He says, What's your favourite Oasis song? not be very magnanimous And he adds that he really likes the Smiths. Yeah anyway. Isn't it interesteresting with the B bonding with the England team and the England fans singing the w That's amazing. I think they all do it. Don't they all the teams have a song? I still find it rather moving. Scotland we didn't get to do that No I supp you didn't have much time to discover a song. Nothing is good as the Norwegians they rowing thing. That's my favourite. But I think you only get to sing the song if you've won the game. make we haven't of course, yes That's the bit which went wrong for Scotland. Well they were f at anthems, weren't they, aaciss? I mean, anthems are a sort of thing. But I do find it interesting because