Future of British Politics

Hello and welcome to N another one. The podcast with M Steve Richards, Miranda Green, Tim Montgomery, Ian Martin. than you very much for joining us. Now for those of you who were with us last week, so to speak, when of you listened, we did part one of our reflections on the Brexit referendum, which believe it or not was ten years ago this month. And we are going to explore part two. We left it in a dramatic moment. People have been biting their nails waiting for part two, like all the best thrillers. But before that or three other things are going to happen. We're going to very fleetingly reflect on this week of the historic Bialection. And before that, Ian has some news. Yes, I have news for listeners and supporters of Not anotherother one Well, firstly, thank you for supporting us. but there is now, as quite a few listeners have asked, there is now a way to directly support the work of the podcast and keep it all going. If you go to not another one politics podcast on Patreon, there you can find two ways to support us four pounds a month, which is support the podcast and then seven pounds a month gives you bonus features to be revealed, but we're excited about this and thank you again for supporting us, but this is a way to get further involved in what we do and hopefully listeners think that the conversation here on N another onene is important Thank you and you're going to give the details going at the end. If people have missed it, you don't necessarily have to rewind to get the details. While we're on this subject, I'm doing an extra show. Rom Anal pololitics is live at King's Pace on july thirteenth. they've asked for an extra one. In marketing terms, this is known as brand dilution. Well this is very fleeting, because of what we're now going to fleetingly talk about The aftermath of the by election is going to be seismic, whatever happens. And anyway, there's an extra show, so come along. In the meantime, C I say it's a bit like that scene in Butch Casty and the Sundance kid where the sheriffs has a crowd of people he's trying to get a posse up to go and find butch and Sundance and hunt them down And the guy comes along and takes advantage and sells everyone a bicycle. That's what you've just done. I think the simile is meant to be insulting. It's not It's good business. you know I got the plugs that were made on other podcasts, this is nothing. of let's election Some of you won't be listening to this til afterwards, you know the result. We're recording beforehand, which is why we're focusing on our part two of the referendum. But it is looming. Everyone I speak to in the world of politics and the media are frankly obsessed with it Let's see what we think is going to happen. Miranda. I think Berham will win and I think it's going to be a question of how much the vote on the right is split and that there will be a lot of emphasis on analysing that as well as what Berham does next Well, one of the features of by elections nowadays they' just really generally so difficult to call because you've got fragmented politics. My instinct tells me which could be completely wrong that he's going to storm it. And people who have been up there, you know hacks have been out on the you know on the streets report that as well. People whose views, I trust say that he he's going to storm it. So we'll see. and my goodness, a lot of things flow from that. Tim. Yeah I can't disagree. I think what you think he'll storm it in it quite. I think you'll win comfortably. I obviously hope not, but I think you will win Vot comfortably. I think what will be interesting to analyze is whether he wins comfortably with a large sort of numeric majority or whether he wins comfortably with a high percentage of the vote If he wins with a high percentage of the vote, that suggests that there is the burn and factor is real. If he wins with a big numeric majority of attention but small percentage, that will draw attention to what I think Miranda is right about. this split on the right. This new relatively new party led by Ruper Low, if it sort of scores ten percent or so And splits the reform vote. That's going to be an issue, not just for this election, but going forward. I think that could be the story of the night because I think people have begun to discount Byrn's victory. Yeah. I that's the consequential the really conquial think. There are so many consequences arising from it, including, as you say, the impact of another new party on the right. I mean, I assume he's going to win because all really we've got to go on is these polls, although they're notoriously unreliable, aren't they constituencies. But when people say it's a tiny sample five hundred, that's more than any journalist who's gone up to the constituency will probably have know. So you've got to assume they are picking up the trend and the Berham camp are fairly confident, seems to be. However, labour in the weekend before the Gorton and Denton by election were confident. Do you remember Tru Stama paid another visit because he was told we're going to win this labour get up here and they lost. So All the opinion polls are consistent though this time. They're not huge margins of victory for labour, but they are all pointing in the same way. Yeah It wouldn't be good for the opinion poll industry if they were all wrong. Well it would be a fairly comical twist if he did actually after all of this if he ended up losing Quick question, Steve. If he wins and he wins comfortably, how quickly could he be Prime Minister realistically? Do Does Starmer fold then or does the cabinet just say enough of the cabinet say, rightight, that's it. You've got to go in a few weeks. Well, there are several things that could happen in the aftermath of a substantial you the sort of storming it Burnham victory. His people say, leap on the momentum and go for it. There might be, though I'm not sure about this, behind the scenes discussions with cabinet ministers, people like Ed Milliband, who've been helping his people have been helping in the campaign so on who might say right, if we resign, Kirst Aarmmer will have to go if enough of us do it because it's unsustainable. and then Andy will have a path without having to challenge. If that doesn't happen, my feeling and understanding is that Kirst Aarma is not just saying it for now because he has to, he plans to stand. And he doesn't have to be nominated or anything. He immediately goes onto the ballot paper. But if he loses the cabinet or enough of the cabinet that becomes unsustainable. We just don't we just don't know yet. Does anyone else here feel deeply uncomfortable about what's going on? This is this seems as though this seems the likeliest what you've described seems the likeliest outcome. What the coronation some kind coronation scenario. I just can't quite believe that we're about to do this again as a country. I mean, Andy Berham we've talked about on this podcast, we'll have our own views on him. He's clearly likable fellow in many respects. Nothing I've heard leads me to suspect that there's a coherent plan. And if he has a coronation without a general election, and he doesn't have a mandate and he doesn't have a plan, then it could go quite seriously wrong after a few months. Well, its say Ststamer can keep his cabinet or most of it. There will be a contest because he will stand. And you know even if it looks as if Andy Bernen will win easily I think the thinking is it would be humiliating for him to step aside anyway. So why not stand and put the case, which he feels, I think genuinely strongly about. And it's of course possible if that doesn't happen and he's forced out, where streeting might get the numbers, although People are doubtful about that. Someone else might try and get the numbers. The one advantage of the coronation is leadership contests like actually the Tory one that summer, which seemed to go on forever with Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. They do go on for a long time. very disruptive for a governing party. I get the impression that they think that they can explain it to the nation in terms exactly of that, which is just to avoid months of paralysis in a government which is also battling the impression that it's treredading water and actually a coronation and Andy Burnham in position perhaps in the autumn in time for conference if they can persuade Starmer to step aside that that is actually a salable proposition because government restarts. I'm not saying it's a great idea. The whole situation is very much suboptimal for the UK as a whole. I think it does have an logic to. Bount might differ as to whether he goes immediately or waits a little bit, but I think there's a general sense from them that they would like him to be in place for the Labour conference and that prrime ministerial speech on Tuesday afternoon I don't exactly what you're getting at, but I think I might. and that I think you've been much more right about Andie Bernon than I have, to be honest. My worries is' clearly good, I think we're in this by election as we've all agreed I've seen him as liable as ever, I've become more and more worried about what his agenda is. And the moment of the campaign for me was when he endorsed paying the Waspry womomen compensation, which is completely unaffordable And my worries we've seen in campaign reform haven't quite given him the opposition I hope we would have done, maybe tested him more strongly, but I don't know who his team is, I don't know what his agenda is and he's about to become prime Minister which know is a huge democratic deficit, and we have no real idea what the agenda is and why there isn't fiscal discipline in his operation, which at a time of potential fiscal crisis is enormous. What does he think about defence? We have this massive debate In the last week or so about that, we have no idea. And I think the Labour partarty as well as the country is about to take a leap into the unknown. And it's not just a democratic deficit in this issue, it's that. what does it? Just very quickly, because we must move on to the main feature the main show in the cinema tonight And just to respond to that, the reason we don't know more is very simple. He's fighting a by election. The only people he is bothered about are the voters in one challenging constituency I would argue, we won't go into it now, that there are outlines of an agenda that is at least as well thought through as some others who get Prime Ministers midterm from. Nm not sure many people find that reassuring, but yes. And on the Wpie thing, if you read what he said, he said there was a case, he didn't commit to finding the money And on the fiscal rules, let's see, I don't think in the short term because they'll all be so terrified of the markets going bonkers, there will be any change. But the broader agendaed he's memorized them now H been asked them what have been unable to reproduce? I'm pleased he didn't fall for that trick. You know how much is a pint of milk? Tell us if he's a five year old. know I'm pleased he didn't fall for that But Manchesterism means something and we'll go into it, no doubt. We'll probably have months to do it. there is a contest it sounds like we might have about ten days. Six parts are Manchester. You're right there might just be ten days, But then you've offered a name, Steve, which is fair enough' we haven't got a governing agenda Because he's targeting a lot of your R You've made that point. I agree. And I think it's better for the country to have an MP representing Makersfield in an allorth London seat. I think it will create a different dynamic. But it's not' still an excuse for us not knowing It's an explanation why he's not told us what his agendnder is, but we do not know what the man who is about to become Britain's prime Minister what his a ggeender is. And that is not a small thing. And you're putting the case therefore for a leadership contest A the Bil. I' will me chance. I'm just stating it's happening and it's not good And how you you know how we get the leadership attgenda that he has out there, perhaps he's going to tell us on Friday in a big speech and then you know we'll vote for it. But we do not know what Andy Berham wants to do. And despite one hundred eleven new statesmen podcasts I listen to do on Manchesterism, I still don't know. I mean I do know a bit about Manchesterism. I've actually read his book. I've listen to you read his book? he did a book a few years agoith the with the mayayor of Liverpool. who confusingly is called Steve Rotherheram, but he's the mayor of Liverpool. yes they head North, head north. Brilliant brilliant pieace in theFT though deconstructing this whole Manchester agenda and saying of course it is driven by the private sector and is He's quite far removed from the of. which to be fair the ds up he does pro business socialismord And the help us. Also the university sector has been phenomenally important to Manchester. You know, the science base as well as all the rest of it. and it's still a wor in progcess' story It's smartly. It is, you know Let's look at the right. Nick Timothy had an industrial strategy which was going to link the state to the know anyway, we'll have plenty of time if he gets in and looks if he's heading towards number ten to explore what he stands for. But let's take a break and then we will return to the main feature today. So welcome back to not another one. This is part two, the sequel of our exploring in depth the referendum of ten years ago. And we left at a dramatic moment. It was the night of the referendum and the victory for Out, as David Dimbleby famously said and he said. We're out. We're out. We're out. Yeah. although it would although it would actually take a few years. David.' it? Y Ply what we're going to explore now. I wonder whether we could begin with what happened immediately afterwards that very day, that Friday after the result. becausecause a pattern was set in store. We had the resignation of a prime minister. David Cameron went or announced he was going right away. No plan for Brexit at all, no detailed working had been done. And I wonder whether Miranda, this was the beginning of this period of wild political instability where prime mininisters fell left right in the centre. Now he did it sort of of his own accord, but only because he lost the referendum And was he right to go? Did it begin this sort of period of volcanic instability? I think it did. I don't think you need to wonder whether that was the beginning of our extraordinarily turbulent pereriod, it clearly was. It was bizarre. It was a strange performance, wasn't it? Do you remember the Tumpty Tums? Yeah walk As he walk back into number ten as if he would just sort of shrug that off and go on to the next challenge having sort of left the country to deal with. I think that was a nervous thing rather Yeah I don' Of course But you know, given the Sepd's hut years afterwards the impression of uh, you know a whole bunch of private school boys taking a big risk with the fate of the nation and then wandering off back to the Cotswlds wasn't great, I would say. Just to put it no more strongly than that. And it was turbulent and this issue of no plan I think is isn't it? Because the Lave campaign rather brilliantly, we discussed in our last episode how there was a bifurcated campaign out, so they were allowed to sort of target different sort of demographics and different segments of the population. but also the Leave campaign was brilliantly ill defined in terms of what out would actually mean and there was no plan And so that all had to come afterwards. And of course, you know, in the SW one complacent worldor It hadn't occurred to people that it was going to become a reality. So there was very little sort of mental preparation or psychological preparation, I think it's fair to say. And yes, no prime minister. So I think it was a strange a strange morning And And the wackiest leadership contests followed. Boris Johnson being backed by Michael Gove, Gove then Challenging and so on. Ian, if Cameron had stayed for a bit longer to just calm everything down Would the Torory partarty have allowed it? or would they have said this leader of the Remain campaign, in effect as Prime Minister, is incredible to start this process? Yes, Well, I think that's what should have happened and certainly was disappointed when David Cameron walked out on announced that he was going to quit on day one But in your question, Steve is the heart of it, the Tory partarty would not not have allowed it. I remember to talking to one of them about it at the time and he was just saying, look, the more right wing parts of the Tory press would have just gone kind completely mad would have just said, How can this man represent us in even for a few months in terms of one you know in terms of what comes next because we have to get on with delivering the people's verdict. I hate that phrase the people fifty two percent of those people who voted, which is a different matter and he would have just been harried from office. so I think he just took view that I think what he thought he was doing, he thought he was doing something perfectly honouraable. He'd been defeat, he'd put put this you know challenge, put himself on the line, put the country on the line, lost and had to had to resign. But it would certainly have been preferable because what you had in the leadership contest that followed, you had what you described there Stehven, then the emergence of Thesa May. Now that turns out at the time it seems like it seems like the beginning of a possible resolution because she can potentially unite the Conservative partarty For part parts of the press, she has overtones of Margaret Thatcher and it actually turns out to be a complete disaster for the following reason because having voted to remain she then has to as leader of the Conservative Party, prove her non existent Brexiteer credentials. So what happenens in that summer, and a lot of this was happening behind the scenes. I remember conversations over the course of that summer in think tank land, where you were running into people bumping into people who were moderate Brexiteers who were trying to influence the process and that became impossible because policy was being set by a small group around May and it was with that in mind. She had to prove because she knew she would have to win a general election at some point. She had to be more Brexity than the Brexiters. Pause that point. I want to come back exactly to that. I just want to quickly with you, Tim return to that Friday because there was another resignation that day And if I were you, I wouldd be a bit worried about that resignation. Nigel Farage announced he was resigning as leader oft remember that U onn the Friday. And I think someone more committed to the hard grind of policy implementation would have stayed in that job and got involved one way or another in what form the Brexit should take. as a leader of a party doing well in the opinion polls and won the European election year or so earlier etcet. Instead he went, got a phone in on LBC, was brilliant at it, loved it. But that hard grind of policy detail. how do we deliver this thing I've been campaigning for most of my life He stepped down. And I wonder whether if it looks if he's about to become Prime Minister, whether he will be thrilled by that or daunted, given that he stepped down the day after the referendum. I that I think that's a bit of an unfair and a bit of a stretch to h us Steven. He's standning to be prrime Minister now if he was afraid of detail on that he wouldn't be standing for Prime Minister. He ran a campaign the campaign of his life to deliver Brexit and he'd achieved it. He wasn't an MP, he had no direct responsibility for negotiations. So I think he just achieved what he thought he wanted to achieve, he moved away from it. But the general point that's behind what you just said and what Ian said, it is true. The problem was remember Brexit means Brexit? How many times did we hear that from Theereressa May? She had no idea what Brexit was going to be And know we had the spectacle at the Tory confonference of Amber Rudd going out. and what I can't what exactly was but it was like a list, a register of foreign employees that companies would have to hold. These were people who clearly did not know what Brexit meant, why people had voted for it and were trying to appear more Brexity than Brexiteers to establish credentials. There was the red, white and blue Brexit I think at some point that Thesa May proposed. She was appointing people like Liam Fox and David Davis and Dominant Rab, people to top jobs and then actually doing all the negotiations with her civil servants, cutting out the ministers. And it was chaos in there. So I don't think David Camera could have survived long. the party wouldn' have had conferences him whether should have resign that day is a moot point. But the problem was Theresa May and then her losing the election and making the task so much harder. If we'd had a Brexit prime minister who could have reached across the aisle and built some kind of consensus would have given many more concessions than Theresa May was willing to at the beginning, I think we would have had a different process. Maybe I' naive, but it was there's a synarapio Yeah, there's a scenario and I'm sure there will be listeners who voted remain and perhaps people on this podcast are thinking who are thinking when you're hearing this, o, come off it. The problem with Brexit is not just that you got the execution a bit wrong. It's much more fundamental than that. I mean I do re you said Brexit means Brexit, which is coming back to me, but shortly after the vote, I said on live television, Brexit means breakfast. And for throughout the Brexit years afterwards, whenever I was on TV, I had to actually avoid the word because it lodged in my brain as brereakfast. I'd have to say the decision to leave the European Union But it's yeah, there's yeah, we're at some point going to have to get into the actual the fundamentals of the decision and disagree agreeably We will disagreereeably before that Yeah I just want to follow the sequence of What is interesting, implicitly anyway, Ian and Tim accept were pretty disastrous. Theereresa May, under pressure from the hardline Eururosptics in her party, triggered the so called Article fifty without knowing at all what she wanted to be at the end of it beyond this Brexit means Brexit. And so here we have. Cameron, no preparation for what Brexit means. You then have his successor triggering a timetable which it was made to be tight to make these things very difficult to achieve Announcing it without a clue at that point of the end game. So this was another in terms of the mechanisms disastrous moves, wasn't it? It didn't seem sensible at the time. Andor does it nor does it now in retrospect. Do you remember at the time there was all this pent up energy though, and momentum that had been successful in achieving vote leave and it sort of had to move on to the next thing and it moved on to a campaign to trigger Aticle fifty I remember going to oh my goodness. I remember going to several sort of panel events, which I was often at as a sort of tethered goat remainer, not all that enjoyable I have to say. But you know, there'd be people in the audience shouting from the back of the hall, tririgger Aticle fifty. you know, and everyone had trigger article fifty badges know first sort of first out of the traps was Jeremy Corbyn. Right. Aually, the morning after the referendum I said, get on and do it. Exactly wing how lead shouldotest against Jeremy Corbn Absolutely. So the chaos was sort of was sort of spreading like wildfire across the political spectrum because of this. but also I think just that sort of point about the energy, you know, because the Lave campaign, one of the reasons why it won is because it had that emotional pull and it had that sort of fizzing we're changing politics vibe. and that moved onto Article fifty. and the whole thing sort of took on a dreadful momentum of its own, I think from the Friday and the And then with May as well I think there was a sort of false dawn of hope in several ways, not least because do you remember there was lots of the longest homeome secretary in position, you know for ever so many years. I can't remember whether it was an absuteactlyv you know the graveyard of political career as a home office, in fact she's thrived, you know The grown ups will be back in the room, this sober woman, blah blah, blah. And actually, as described, she had zero authority. and no sort of political base. and was proved quite bad at navigating all these sort of tricky moments. the psychology of her fascinated me during this period. I know her a bit, I imagine Tim knew her well. I liked her actually. But I found it fascinating that I can tell from that reaction that they did. Did you know Mar? I don't know. I think she's an honorraable person actually. in retrospect, but pycholog be fascinating Those votes on her deals were just the most spectacular defeats. So you know last week we all agreed that we knew Michael Gove would back Brexit and David Gameron thought friendship would mean he'd remain We all knew that she was going to be slaughtered in every one of those votes on her deal. Yeah. And I'm told she went back into number ten and said to her people, right, get in the DUP we'll start again. But she didn't say, this is just impossible until as often happens with prrimes is the end of the road. I mean, it was incredible. She just said right, we'll start the negotiation again, we'll bring it back to the comments. She saw it She was obvious. she was never going to go She'sady for these things. But we yeah, but she saw it in terms of duty by that point. And of course, remember there are two parts of this because there is the there's from twenty sixteen when she becomes Prime Minister and then there's the general election where she does have authority and she has because of course Lancaster House comes in there as well, Lancaster House speech. So she has you know she has she has that authority, then goes for the election and squanders it, loses her majority and from that point, I mean she has very little leverage with the European Union. herer party is going completely nuts about having lost its majority and everything everything that flows from that. So by the time you get to the votes in What are we talking twenty nineteen? She is she is in her terms, doing something honouraable and you know as Miranda said, and just just trying to trying to get a deal done. You ask about whether Ian and I knew her. I worked incredibly closely with her. She was chairman of the Conservative Party Ian Dougas Smith as leader. Of course Even though I spent an enmous amount of time with her, I have a real affection for her actually, I think she's a fundamentally good person. I can't really remember ever really s of having a chat with her or you know really getting to know what she really thought about things know a couple of times we had lunch together. They weren't of formal lunches, but they were, you know on our way to something and just conversing with was really hard work. She was a very private shy person in my respect. And I think part of the problem was is people projected on to her this what they thought she was. and actually she wasn't that. She was a bureaucrat really, a lovely person. But working with her was incredibly difficult. and in negotiations where you needed to know what the tactics were and what this nobody knew around her even what her agenda was. And know Tim Shipman listened to him recently, he said Brussels knew everything that he was writing about. you know they were actually all over the detail of what Tory MPs were thinking and writing. But no one in Brussels knew what Tereresa meew And I think that know the Brexit means Brexit and all that this wasn't a small thing. It was just the lack of understanding of the British negotiating position was a huge problem. We've come to I want to move on to a fascinating what if in the May era because we've got to move on to the final Johnson Daling and then what our views are of how it's all worked out. lot of crim it. But what if is this did a couple of minutes ago? Just to summarize yeah, just to summarize, you know, May's deal which your colleague, Miranda George Parker said to me on the week in Westminster once was a soft hard Brexit was customs union with the pretense that it was temporary until the border issue would be resolved, which of course, it never could be It was, in my view, and I suspect your view, about ten thousand times better than the final Brexit deal negotiated by Lord Frosty Frost, as Boris Johnson called it. And at one point, Corbyn people in his office said, we should vote for this It would have split the Tory partarty in two. But of course, in the same way that May couldn't control her party, he couldn't control his. At this point, there were enough Labour MPs thinking we can stop the whole thing.. There was no way was going wasn't the parliamentary Labour Party to vote for it. But if they had, it might have led to the schism of the Tory partarty and a better Brexit outcome than the one we were saddled with at the end. Also the psychological pain that the country was going through at that point and the deal, you know, her compromise, I mean, as you describe it, and as George described it, is kind of brilliant because it was a sort of Yeah, it's actually the customs Union. but no one will notice that we're still in the customs Union. I mean, absolutely absurd. But anyway, what was it called the backstop? The backstop. But but I think the key point there was that politically There was this enormous sort of compensatory energy on the other side by then, which was all about this doomed idea to hold a second referendum and make the first referendum result of june twenty sixteen Null and void. So it wasn't actually possible for MPs even if they thought, okay, the pain of the nation is too much now. Let's just vote for this compromise deal and move on to try and making it work The pressure the MPs were under to back a second referendum. and to hold out for that was phenomenal. I mean, there were a few MPs in the Labour Party and indeed, there were a couple of Lib Dems, believe it or not, who wanted to back Theressa M May's deal. I think if I'd been in there, I'd have been really tempted to back de to move on but to money abbsolutely the money, the energy from all those clever people from the Blairyt era of the late nineties and early two thousands, they were all committed to this second referendum idea Doomed as we know now Therefore, you know, the compromise, you know cross party compromise was absolutely out of question. So she fell. So Cameron fell immediately afterwards, she fell in twenty nineteen. Boris Johnson comes in and begins wholly out of character with a mendacious assertion. Do you remember, come what may were out by october thirty first, even if we break laws and all the rest. And it was always going to be impossible. I mean, there's a book to be done on that Hung parliament because no one had complete agency including Boris Johnson. There was no way he was going to get it through by then And you remember Ken Clark came back from Holiday one summer,' been bird watchatch. She said, I've come back from Holiday, Read, I'm about to be made Prime Mister because all the non Brexit MPs were trying to find someone to coalesce. It was all crazy, wasn't it? But Johnson said October, that never happened And then something extraordinary happened in, which was he negotiated a deal which ended the customs Union bit. But it was basically the deal the European Union had offered May in the first place, but she couldn't get it through the DUP because of the border question. He told Northern Ireland it would all be all right And one way or another, coming back with that, he persuaded all the other parties to back an early election. Yeahep. it was a piece of political magic actually. I know people Boris because of everything that's happened since Boris' know is derided, but at the time, explaining it toen listeners are thinking, how on earth could you see the world like this? but as a pro Brexit person? I mean it's very interesting listening to Miranda speak about the secondecond referendum campaign because that to me is at the heart of it There is guilt on the part of my side, the Brexiteers, which I acknowledge. Because we were a coalition of interests, there was no clear view about what Brexit actually meant. Brexit means Brexit. We buried our differences because the one thing we could agree on was that we didn't want to be members of the European Union any longer. I began the process as a moderate Brexiteer and would have wanted Ted Boris to become Prime Minister in twenty sixteen. There was a speech to deliver there saying, listen, it was narrow, it was fifty two, forty eight, some compromises are going to be required. The nation has to be brought together didn't happen for reasons we understand. Now because the remainers who are so furious watching this clown show for several years and watching what the Tory party is doing could feel this rage building And it's not true that everyone from the newew Labour era, because I remember Phil Collins, Philip Collins, and a colleague on the Times who is very anti secondcond referendum said this is complete madness and will end in end in political disaster which it did But what it did was it was a radicalising event. So the rejoiners had been radicalised just by the incompetence of the Brexiteers. But on our side of the argument, someone like me who was a moderate Brexiteer, I ended up writing some columns in favour of a hard Brexit set because for me the ultimate was that we had to leave the European Union and that the result of the referendum had to be respected. I couldn't believe That friends of mine and people I respect and are still friends of mine were actually arguing for saying, listen, noope, we're going to scrap that referendum. We're going to have another one. just say we're going to have best of three? exactly is this How is this going to work? So to me, it became a fundamental question of democratic legitimacy that had that had to be resolved and it is interesting, is it? Because that december twenty nineteen election, which it's described as the Brexit election, It wasn't about the substance of Brexit. No, it was about a process. The phrase was get Brexit Yeah. was That's why I said earlier the almost genius, the magic of Boris Johnson as a figure that he comes in on he comes right into the middle of that and lots of smart people deride him and say this won't work and the Cumings approaches madness. There's a lot of what they do I don't particularly like and find distasteful and there's the argument about prolonguing parliament. but really when it comes down to it, I mean it's fascinating. You can argue about the pphology of it, but even look at his speech at a Tory Party conference in twenty nineteen, which is in Manchester, it real echoes of disraeli. It's about reconnecting with what was then called the Red Wall and working class voters. Now some of that is fakery when you break down exactly how the country voted in twenty nineteen, but there was this tremendous feeling on the Brexit side of, right well It's going to take something unusual and unorthodox after everything that's happened with the secondecond referendum to blas us out of the European Union. and you can criticise him for everything that happened afterwards, but in those terms it works. On the subsequent trade deal Again, we will debate briefly what happened in substance after the break, but the trade deal itself, which is the really big negotiation, took place in the most unbelievable context, COVID was erupting, but Johnson insisted no shortening, no extending of the negotiation timetable. Frost began the negotiation, being accountable to Dominic Cummings, who said it's fine if we get no deal at all it will scare them by the end and we'll get a better deal or whatever. Cummings then leaves and Frost is then negotiating more with Johnson, who's a figure of wayward attention, also having to focus on COVID. And a deal was finally done on Christmas Eve. and some people say perhaps wholly unfairly that they suspect Johnson didn't read that there was a really thick document arriving on Christmas Eve. That was the most historic trade negotiation in modern British history. Now whatever you think of the outcome, Tim, that's a pretty alarming route to it. It certainly wasn't ideal. I agree with that. I think you the way you just described it think you understate the amount of preparation that had taken place by that stage. There have been civil servants and ministers negotiating aspects of this deal for a long time. It didn't suddenly just emergge from nowhere. it was made up of text with which people were very familiar. You didn't like the outcome, which is partly I think why you're so against it, but I think to present it as has haazardly arrived to suggest is unfair I think by that stage we more or less knew what we were getting. and obviously there's the Northern Ireland question, which remains outstanding in the view of lots of people in that part of the UK. But actually the deal as a whole has held up. and it's not fallen apart I think it's work largely, but that's another area where we probably disagree. We'll explore that after the break. Just finally on process, Miranda. I find again fascinating that there was Brexit Secretary after Brexit seecretary appointed with the great privilege of delivering what they had sought They all resigned one way or another, including Lord Frosty Frost, who had the ultimate privilege of being the cabinet minister implementing his own negotiation. He left within months. O something else wasn't it? Apparently. I was one lockdown restriction. I mean, if he was really content with the way it was going, I get a bit negotiated by then though. Yeah. No, but he was then resed. D didn't resign over Brexit that' the key., no no he didn't resign over Brexit, but he had the great privilege of implementing his negotiation and pulled out over apparently his opposition to one lockdown in that crazy COVID period. It says something about Brexit, doesn't it? When every cabinet minister couldn't really get to grips with it, even though they had supported Brexit were unpicking a complex commercial and trading relationship with all those other allies was very, very complicated and none of that complexity came up during the referendum campaign, of course. So There was chal and cheese really, arguing for leave and then sort of making it work. And of course, really important things were left over. You know the whole question of Northern Ireland and the complexities of having a land border with an EU country in the UK on the island of Ireland had to be left over for Rishi Sunak to solve when he eventually became prrime Mister as well. To prime ministers down the line from from where we've got to amazingly. And also large, I would just point out Ian that there are large sectors that aren't happy with that final deal. so I understand what you mean about everyone who was on the leave side just deciding, okay, now at this point it becomes question of you know, democratic legitimacy and accountability and this has to happen. But I think, for example, the farmers might have a few words to say about that know, because they were promised a lot. And the other thing I wonder, Tim is whether you say the deal is robust. Rich soon had to renegotiate the Northern Ireland dimension and it's been announced on the day we recall that the latest EU summit is going ahead, you know, there was questions about whether it would or not, the so called reet done by this government, which is in effect, a renegotiation of some elements of the Brexit deal and I imagine Burnham or indeed Stalmer, whoever it is, will want to accelerate that. So I wonder how robust it is. It's not really It's not a renegotiation because it does it's on top of the basic process of the deal doesn't change. It's a free trade agreement. and then it has Northern Ireland bolted onto it, which as a unionist, I'm deeply uncomfortable about it. and there's a contradiction at the heart of Brexit. I acknowledge that But it is, you know it's the reality is that the Northern Ireland question is for decades has been a fudge onn both sides of the border. legal institution which can't do fudges. The British state has been good at fudges over. R the way back to the right the way back to the common travel area, all of that sort of stuff. That the British state and Brexiteers made many you know made many mistakes through the whole process. But I do think that I found it astonishing at the time that the European Union behaved in that way over something which has been Th through the Anglo Irish aggreement, common travel area decades before the peace process has been something that involves you to see several things being simultaneously true at once. I mean, that's the story of that b. Well hold on a second, prrotecting the single market is not a trivial bureaucratic matter. when it comes to questions of peace and war it should be outside or theoretically outside. as Rishi Sunak revealingly observed, they've now got the best of both worlds. They're in the single market in effect, Northern Ireland. But it was I remember having a breakfast with German ambassador long before the referendum saying off all the countries in the European Union Britain was least suitable to leave because of the Irish situation and that border. So hold on He was the British ambassador. He was the Germanbassador. ambassador in London. This was long before, how long have you hadn't been paying attention very well. S that we were the least likely or least suitable to leave suitable to leave because there is no answer to that border question. But anyway, let's take a a short break and then we will come takeaking a deep breath for this one. on what we think of what has happened as we sit here ten years later OkayK, well, those of you who haveven't pressed stop. Wc become the viral section of our.. Did Camer, wasn't it? It was come back to come back. Yes, come back. Yes, exactly. ye. In the garden that time. Yeah, yeah, yeah So ten years on. let's deal with a specific, which fascinates me, which is something that Tomas Simmons has said to me, That trade deal was the only trade deal where we ended up putting up barriers rather than knocking them down. And those barriers have been costly, costly, costly, to exports, to supply chains for Britain. And that, it seems to me, is one of the reasons for when you look at these independent assessments from Think tanks Gone No, no, no. You can't mention these again. Who did may. Well why not? Because readly reed. We anal We don't have to have predictions now. It ten years of experience. And they say GDP has gone down by five per to eight percent depending on so this is nonsense. We had a brilli edition last week because we all came out of our position to be talking. Yeah the we're now having an argument.'' afraid I' going gonna be I loological on this and take my pion. but we have the evidence now you can compare the economic performance of Britain with France, France with Britain, all And basically, if anything, Britain has grown more quickly than those other countries during this period. Whatical the logical conclusion of that would be that actually Brexit is helpper. Now I wouldn't go so far as that because there are other factors that explain our economic performance But the idea now we've had a whole series of years of actually looking at GDP growth. Where is this massive exit from the city? Where is this massive five percent fall in GDP? It didn't happen. The scare stories that George Osban and others put out weren't true. Now, there have been sectors that have lost out of Brexit. There are sectors that have been gained. One of the sad things about the debate is I think neither side is willing to acknowledge the other side has some strengths and some weaknesses. We've been very partisan on it But the stuff that was put out by the likes of Goldman Sachs was rubbish. And we can now say it's rubbish because we have the years of experience to prove it. C canan I acknowledge the weakness? Tim. They were looking back. The Goldman Sachs report was earlier this year or the end of Can C I'll acknowledge if I'll acknowledge you know a weakness and the damage that Brexit has done. But I mean let's be absolutely honest. The survey which said eight percent, an estimate of eight percent is I mean, it was actually between six and eight percent. I'm being polite I'm being polite when I say that it's highly contested, right? It is based on a Dopelganger model which weaights the US, which has had the shale boom and a technological boom There are many, many economists who say that is that's not a model worth trusting. To such an extent that Bloomberg, when they did their recent big survey, which got quite a of quite a lot of coverage, a really impressive team at Bloomberg who said it wasn't five to eight percent, it was two point five percent. Now even that is contested by some economists. So is it somewhere between one and two? My view, not being an economist, but My view of it is that it was a hit. was it had an effect, but not a massive effect and an effect that's very difficult to disentangle from COVID. And other things going on the other things going on the global economy. E if you are right All that energy to lose two percent of GDP seems to me to be a futile futile. That's a different question. That's the fundamental question. Yeah. Well the fundamental question is, was it worth it if you're still losing GDP on your analysis? And others are saying it wasn't wor a very authority of people. I spoke to a someone a former business minister at the weekend. And this person was telling me in this government, from this government Every single business leader they met pleaded with them to sort out the mess of that deal and get us back into a single market. you're joking. So he doesn't speak to tech bosses? What He doesn't speak to bankers. he doesn't speak to the city the city doesn't want to go b I'm sure he does. I'm sure he does. So Are they all celebrating Brexit Right. The city has completely changed its view and does not want to be regularated city the city Well you just said all of them major look, look at the pronouncements from from the key businesses in the city. They do not want to be re reggulated by Brussels. that's now settled in the city of London. And then look at tech and AI. if this if he's a business minister, he hasn't been doing his job if he hasn't been speaking to tech and AI bosses who do not want, I mean, can you imagine at the moment, say right We have an advantage because of our universities, because of language, because of investment in AI and tech. alsoso comes with enormous risks, but we have these advantages. We are now going to volunteer to hand all of that over and be reregulated by Brussels Well, when you say hand all that over, the regulation the regulatory framework, obviously, if you go back into the single market, will be one of the issues that will have to be addressed. but I mean The loss of that single market has been a bigger hit than the two of you acknowledged, Miranda. So I just want to say a couple of things. So that NBR report that we keep quoting, it said sixcent to eight percent. and it has been argued with a lot. and that is because as Ian said, it's incredibly difficult to actually put a number on the counterfactual. It's almost impossible because you have to sort of invent an alternative present in which you're assuming that the UK has developed like a sort of basket of other countries, you know that are quite random and don't have the same structure as our economy. Plus we've had not just COVID in the interim, but also the Ukraine crisis and now the Gulf crisis and Trump Mark II and all the disruptions of his you trade and tariff activity. So actually, the headwinds to the global economy, the particular problems that Germany is facing, which is often quoted by the Brexiteers as where we would be had we not had Brexit. know Germany's got huge problems with its export economy because Chinese consumer profile has changed to their detriment. The US, as Ian said, has got its own sort of advantages, which has left it steaming ahead, but our quite often services led economy has actually done much better than anyone expected partly because of COVID, because everything went online. So it no longer mattered to us that we were twenty miles away from continental Europe because you could just do everything online anyway. So in a sense have affected some of those, you know, doom laden verdicts. But for me, the key point is what is something that you mentioned, Steve, which is just the terrible years and years of distraction and years and years of erecting barriers when it was supposed to be about taking down barriers. And in a sense, putting a number on it and arguing about different models is almost by the by. I think you either think it was worth it or you don't. And a lot of people, I don't disagree with you necessarily about the city of London, but a lot of business people will just say that the amount of red tape and the amount of regulation now is such a nightmare and was not what was promised. You know It was supposed to be against Brussels and red tape. We've now got much more red tape. and also politically the distractions have been such. You know, what is the point of having a succession of prime ministers saying we're going to level up the UK We're going to deal with the burning injustices. and we have done neither of those things because we've spent all these years replaying the argument we're having around the table right now. I think you put it absolutely brilliantly, Miranda. And I yeah, I was very naive about this and naively optimistic. I just I assumed that it would be settled within a year or two, we'd leave and we'd get on with it. And I completely underestimated the passions that this inspired and people who really felt that the European Union was part of their identity. It wasn't part of my identity and it was It was something different and other. So I acknowledge that and it it's been a deeply painful experience. But I'm still ultimately receive you' talking about the GDP stuff, for me it was for those who think how on earth can you still advocate for it after all this. For me it was about democratic fundamentals. I'm not saying I'm a greater believer in democracy than people who vote to who wanted to remain or want to rejoin. But for me, the ultimate test is that One of the things I hated most about British politics growing up was the way in which so much of it was consumed with blaming Brussels and blaming other people. I do think with now, my goodness, we're in a mess, we're in a mess on all sorts of fronts, but now we do not have anyone else to blame Could I ask you, Tim about just I just wanted to ask you about this accountability question. because it's an interesting one. And if I had been around for the seventy five referendum when as a student, I was a big fan of Tony Ben and loved all his stuff about accountability, and I'm still obsessed with accountability. It's what you and I have in common, Tim But someone explained to me that in this world of trade deals, there is always what Roy Jenkins called paulled sovereignty. So know Miranda mentioned the farmers. They've got no control over the deals with New Zealand and Australia which are going to screw up their businesses and they can vote for whoever they want in their local constituencies, those trade deals have been done. And so the argument is, I'm with you in an ideal world. We would all be held accountable at Westminster for what happens in Britain or a local government or whatever. But any deal outside Britain so in a way, that argument, do you want to be North Korea. You know if you're going to do deals, there's pulled sovereignty. And we've pulled out of a good deal that we had with this single market, which did lead to pulled sovereignty and loss of accountability at Westminster For crap deals, frankly in comparison with India, Australia and New Zealand, which will impact on people in Britain and they have no control over. Why are they terrible deals though? I mean just so small compared to the deal we have with the Who knows how the global economy is going to develop? I mean common agricultural policy is a py percentage ofon agricultural policy is a protectionist racket which increases prices. I mean why would you not be in favor of opening up But it that's a different argument. accountability Let me let me answer your question in a slightly different way. Yeah, which is then get a segue beautifully backed to our p account. whichich is the most important thing about this podcast, ist this? I think I'm actually Probably closer to you, Steve than to Ian on these trade deals. I think the one that Liz Trus did with Australia was particularly poor. and I think' probably being a bit naughty now, but I would say anyway is Scott Morrison said to a cabinet mininister of the time, who was Australian Prime Minister. He said, We've got a fantastic deal. Don't let Liz Tus negotiate any deal with any another country She was awful and we had a warning of who she was. I don't think the trade deals are the game changers. Wh you have an existing industry that was regulated by the U, it's very difficult for them to change radically. I think you once joked, Dan there's not much of a market and slightly less reliable washing machines. Yeah was'? Where there is a huge advantage? A slightly less you know slightly more unsafe washing machines know a British washing machine that goes on fire more quickly, ye. Where there is the huge opportunity for Brit and I think this is Tony Blair know recently anledge there new emerging industries like KI, like the biotech industries where Britain specialises in, where we can go a very different way from the EU. and those industries are the industries of the future. And Europe for me is why fundamentally I' a Brexiteer It is a declining continent. It's modeled whether it's welfare or tax or environmental regulation is wrong. We have an opportunity to go in a different direction, which we haven't fully seized, but perhaps we can in the new industries. And I love what Miranda said a few minutes ago. It was a balanced dogument. It was someone from a remaine point of view, who was acknowledging the strengths and weaknesses of both sides My great regret of the post Brexit era is that we don't do nuance in British politics anymore. and the lack of trust that's sort been unleashed by the Brexit process. There's a poll by Lord Ashroft in the last couple of days which asks reform voters If they think if a reform government is elected, will the institutions of the state frustrate the mandate of a reform party? Ninety one percent say yes, nine percent say no. There's a cynicism now on both sides of politics about what is possible, whether the state is fair. And what's important about this podcast, readers, is that we do we do have different views. We disagree quite violently sometimes, very emotionally sometimes, but we're listening to each other. It's a rare thing. and the thing that depresses me about British politics about about podcastes, a lot of people go to the echo chamber all of the time. We're interested in listening to the same voices. and we're trying to build something different here and we don't have a commercial sponsor certainly not yet. You will make this podcast continue to happen. We do have this new Patreon link now. it's taken us a little while to get here, but thank you particularly to Ian and Martin for all you've done to make it happen, Ian. But we really would value your support for it because this podcast is unusual in its cross party nature And we'd love your help to make it sustainable. Y, So you'll find the link on well we're going to post this all on X on our accounts, but you'll find it listed there. It's on Patreon, not another one politics podcast, four pounds support, not another one and seven pounds bonus features to be unveiled. I mean, doesn't this rather rule out any of us storming off at the end of this episode. I'm just gonna going to bring it to a very unqu collection conclusion by ending where we beun. We be s we're going to sing o to Joy. must bonus. This is the bonus feature where you andan have a cage fight on the White House floorl We began our part two on the referendum with the fall of David Cameron. and before that we reflected a bit on this historic byialection. And by next week we could be in the midst of another convulsion in British politics. So on it goes. Thank you for listening to our reflections on mainly calmly done may on ten years since the referendum. I say none of us can quite believe it's it seems like yesterday to me. And yeah, when we gather next, who knows where politics will be. Thank you for listening. Bye B bye