Burnham's potential path to Downing Street

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Oh, and welcome to not another one and a weekend episode in which Tim, Ian and myself, I'm Miranda Green with Tim Montgomery and Ian Martin are going to chew over some of the things that have happened in yet another extraordinary few days in British politics. I should say we are not joined today by Steve Richards. But chaps, I think that's okay because Steve has been on every television screen that I've turned on and on every radio station that I've flicked on in the kitchen as I've had a desperate cup of tea in the middle of editing uh and commissioning articles on the leadership crisis in the Labor Party. And he's been great, hasn't he? But he has been. It's been like Steve the Steve Richards Broadcasting Corporation. Uh no, I have to interrupt you there, Miranda. The veteran Steve Richards. So should I in fact formally announce that we are collectively thinking of taking uh you're doing a letter before action. I think that's what the powerless uh the powerless move is to uh the the the British Broadcasting Corporation for calling Steve veter an because we're all in danger of having that epithet thrown at us now, aren't we? Having reached a certain uh time of our careers and uh we think it's actionable. Anyway, Steve, if you out there having a break but also listening, we've got your back on this whole veteran thing. And also we're grateful for Steve's very interesting uh point that most by elections he says and he's not alone, although I tend to disagree , uh don't really most by elections don't really matter very much, but the one that's coming up in Makefield, in Greater Manchester, in in fact the Wigan area, between Manchester and Wigan is very important indeed because it looks as if the Labour's and Labour Party's National Executive Committee, the ruling body, is going to green light Andy Burnham's standing there, thereby, if he can see off a reform threat, coming back to the commons and challenging Keir Starmer for the leadership and occupancy of number ten. Now we are going to loop back in this episode because we shamefully neglected some of the fascinating stuff that went on in the set of elections on May the 7th . But just before we do that, chaps, I mean these stories when they really bubble up and take over . They do sort of they they take on a tone of slight madness, don't they? And I have to say there's been a bit of pushback, hasn't there, from the public saying, is it us? Is it the media whipping up a storm? And is there in fact less of a crisis inside the Labour Party than the journalists are saying? I don't think that's true. I think there is a genuine sense of existential threat inside the Labour Party, hence the leadership crisis. Ian, what's your impression or do you think that that um we're whooping it up well both I think I think I think I I think it's complicated because I think the the public's frustration on this stuff is absolutely justified. And I think we w th there there is and I I look I put my hands up, I played you know, a small part in it as a as a political commentator for years. Particularly I don't know, around the time the sort of Boris thing of of of regarding it as politics the the game, the madness as a game as somehow being kind of funny and amusing or having a funny and amusing side. I don't think what's going on at the moment is remotely amusing. I don't find it any of it entertaining. I find a lot of it really quite disturbi disturbing and dispiriting that we keep on doing this, that we're about to have our uh seventh Prime Minister in ten years, or is it tenth Prime Minister in seven years? Seven and ten, but it might as well be the other way aundro and uh and on and on it goes and there is there's definitely but I still see it uh there's a lot of there are a lot of very good journalists who are cli you you can just tell by the expression uh expressions on their faces doing pieces to camera and the way in which they're writing that they're not particularly amused by it anymore either. No, that's right. So I think the g the game the joke the the the joke isn't the joke isn't isn't funny. You know, in terms of the country. Yep, exactly. Exactly. I don't know. Tim, what do you think? I mean I I you know, obviously, you know, the th the three of us, the four of us, when Steve's here as well, we live and breathe this stuff. And we do clearly even slightly offend people if we sound too excited. I did it I did hear one person on a broadcast saying they were getting very excited and I thought they should not have said that. But there is something very very, serious happening, isn't there, which is a fran tic feeling in the governing party, only two years not yet two years away from a landslide victory. And that is an an unprecedented phenomenon that is hopping everyone up. It's feeble you know the cliches it's feebrile at Westminster, but it genuinely has been, right? Extraordinary. Yeah. And I have an advantage I think now um in this crisis that I haven't had in previous crises is that I I don't work for a daily newspaper anymore. I don't know whether Ian will agree with what I'm about to say, but I am a relaxed in a way that I certainly wasn't when I edited a conservative home, about disappearing for a few hours and coming back a little bit later and only really focusing on the stuff that probably is gonna last. Whereas previously, you know, I followed every twist and turn of these things, the gossip, you know, the background briefing, and you know most of it is irrelevant within hours, but it's all breathlessly reported on our various social media and twenty-four hour news channels. And I think that is part of what annoys people and the ins idery horse race stuff of it. And I'd had a terrible run of predictions for a period. You know, I said um Trump wouldn't be president, Corbyn wouldn't be Labour League, Cameron wouldn't win in twenty fifteen, Brexit And then then I will get things like the French election completely right. And I think it's because I was getting lost in the you know, in the woods I couldn't say the woods of the tree. I had didn't have a bird's eye view that most voters do have. And I wonder of course it's important that we're changing our prime minister yet again, but a lot of the coverage is far too irrelevant uh and not person to really understanding why we're facing this p phenomenon. And um that is my problem with it. But um I know that I was guilty of it when I was there doing the daily thing, and so it's um and it often does get a little bit of more traffic um immediately, but it's rubbish and you know a few hours later and irrelevant. How do you free yourself from the economics of of that? Do you or you mean the incentives for the media organizations get things out all the time? might be exciting, but uh the you know you it could be that you're the first person to report that fact and people are more likely to credit you and remember that you got an exclusive right than if you you know you said something that didn't actually materialize. So I do think some of the incentive structures are the wrong way. I mean you know, I don't I don't I mean it'd be a terrible thing for the for for media organisations if it if there was no premium on being right. Um I'm not sure it's got quite that bad has it? Certainly not where I work. This might happen which protects them from you know being accused of inventing stuff. But if they do publish the speculation, then at least then in the position to say I was the first person to do that. So Well, I think that's all very interesting. I mean the stakes are it's hard to think of stakes that would be that much higher politically though, right? I mean this is literally the entire world media descending on Makerfield in Greater Manchester because the outcome of that contest on they think it's mid June, don't they, that the by election will be held, could well determine the next UK Prime Minister and given the state of the two main parties , could could determine whether there's ever a Labour Prime Minister again. I mean I don't think that's too strong, right? My colleague Stephen Bush has said that. I've spoken to lots of people inside the Labour Party, um, both sort of senior former cabinet members, but also people who are sort of strategists saying it's that serious for Labour Yeah. Well you said I mean you said Miranda the the entire world's media will will descend. I suppose th th the the British media will and then some of the world's media will turn up uh at various points in the campaign because it'll be regarded as a funny or a uh a a a c you know cu you know cu curious story that the Brits are Brits are getting mad again politically. And trying to yeah, all that. I mean I'm d I'm I'm not dismissing its uh its seriousness. I mean I think uh it it is it's farcical the fact that this is gonna take this looks like it's gonna take months. I mean what's at stake really is that 's it. That is the question, but anyway, go on. Yeah. If Burnham if Burnham if Burnham manages to win, and I think he deserves I you know, I've criticized Andy Burnham plenty of times down the years, but I think he does deserve uh he he he does deserve some credit for taking genuine political risk actually. I mean he's he's he's standing in a s he's standing in a seat which voted and of course it's ten years ago but voted I think sixty-five percent to leave, in which reform clearly looking at the local authority results has a strong lead against Labour. Gutsy and but the th the f flip side of that is that if he if he wins I mean let's talk about uh w later on what happens if he loses, but if he wins then I mean you're already seeing speculation that there wouldn't then need to be a leadership contest that if if if he's if he's uh re strong enough a candidate to beat reform in what is increasingly reform's own backyard , then that's the point people say at which the the deals would be done and there's a p there is a logical case for not then running a long leadership contest because the country needs lead and there are ton a of other things happening internationally and economically. And we should come on to what with at some point discuss what we think Andy Burnham's views on uh you know views on these great questions of our time actually actually are. But if he wins the by election, the consensus emerging consensus seems to be that it's then uh number ten is his well it it it appears. So so label if you're you're you're kind of p pioneering uh establishment of Conservative Home, Tim, all those years ago. What when was it that you founded Conservative Home? Oh my goodness. Um two thousand and five. Right, okay. So so that really was very clever and for listeners who don't know, this was you know, m expressing the views of, debating the views of and sort of publishing the wishes and preferences of the Conservative membership and support base, right? Which was a really revolutionary idea in terms of using the internet to make our political knowledge and sort of feedback loop more efficient. And Labour List have started trying to do something similar, haven't they, uh recently which has been very useful, which is they do use the polling company serv ation to actually ask Labor members what they think. And they have done a runoffs uh measurement and basically Starmer could beat Streeting if it was a straight runoff, but he would lose to any of the other contenders. And if he doesn't want to leave Downing Street, he's automatically on the ballot uh for in a leadership contest. So I think you're right, Ian. I think if if if Burnham sort of wins comprehensively in Makerfield, then I think the conversation's about how to stop this being a vacuum at the top of government for many longer will become quite urgent. Because don't you think, I mean, if if one of the main objections to the Starmer premiership is lack of direction from the top and lack of clarity about what the government's actually for and what the preference of the person occupying number ten is on various policy questions and strategy questions, to prolong that sense of a vacuum would not seem in their interest s or in the country's interests at all. So any way that they can concertina the time right down if the by election goes their way, I'm sure they'll take that seriously, don't you think? Well certainly I mean certainly in terms of the country's interests, it it it is it is interesting that the splash in the Times on we're recording this on Saturday morning is about about Starmer preparing to announce an extra eighteen billion pounds over I think over four four years for defence. And uh it r the reporting suggests that Jonathan Powell , the National Security Advisor, has said uh along with the Cabinet Secretary that the the Prime Minister, whoever it is by then, really cannot go to the NATO summit in July. Remember all the back you know the b the backdrop will be Trump's demands that Europe does more and can't go to that summit and still be you know still have this defence investment plan stuck in the weeds and no and and no commitment to any further extra cash. So it that apparently is going to be part of um Starmer's attempted fight back. Now what's more interesting about that I think is that it just shows you that within the bowels of Whitehall and the deep state that there is a there's a realisation that this is this is really affecting Britain's international standing reputation amongst allies and I mean goodness, how long has it taken Starmer to actually, you know, get off the pot to get on with this? I mean this is now you know this this what he's about to do could have been done around in the run up to the budget last year, which shamefully barely even mentioned defence. But well at least I d I don't want to sound down I I don't want to sound um dismissive of it because it's a very good start, the eighteen billion. Still won't get us to three percent but it,'s is is is progress. Okay, we we unlike the government we supported though Ian, at least it's done it uh at some point, you know, it will always be a badge of shame, I think, for the Tories. I'm not trying to make a particularly anti-Tory point here, but that the defences slid so badly under the Tories really is quite something. And I know you're not disagreeing with that. And the funny thing was, Jeremy Hunt was the person who put in his leadership campaigns, unsuccessful bids for the Tory leadership, he put defence front and centre. Demanded three percent. And then when he became Chancellor of the Exchequer, um he united this podcast and um you know uh uh uh uh uh annoyed a lot of people by uh cutting national insurance. Um so Labour didn't have to do this, I'm glad they are, and it's all belated. But the Tories are not in a good position to No no no no. I mean this is not saying you were uh but he has done it at least. And do you think there's any chance he could he is aiming to be foreign secretary or something? Or do you think he will have to go if it replaced as Prime Minister ? Starmer Starmer could be shuffled off shuffled off into the Foreign Office . Or defense, which is either way is more important in uh in modern I certainly don't think defence would uh work. I mean this is we we gotta sort defence out. I mean th that's not really what's required. But I think that's maybe he could maybe he could be given an ambassadorship, chaps, because really plum ambassador jobs deem do seem to be political uh baubles rather than in crucial. Yeah. Well, yeah. No. Where should we where should we send it? Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh that's a parlor game, probably not for on air. Okay, we need to take a break. Um and then we're gonna come back uh and discuss how we got to this moment of uh you know such political intensity around labor's crisis. Your time is valuable. Your perspective should be too. The Economist cuts through the noise with the stories that truly shape your world. How can you believe that a new regime won't crush you just like the previous one? Online scams are stranger than they've ever been. When the world's turned upside down, no which way is up. Read, watch, or listen to The Economist . Experience your favorite films like never before at the Royal Albert Hall. An out of this world cinematic experience. Watch a full-length feature film on the big screen as a symphony orchestra performs the score live on stage. Upcoming films include Matilda with live narration from Danny DeVito on stage, plus Pirates of the Caribbean and Star Wars. Book your tickets at royalalberthall.com. Okay, welcome back to our weekend episode. So Tim, I'm really pleased that before we took our break you reminded us of an occasion on this podcast where we've all agreed which was on the fullhardiness of cutting national insurance uh as the Tories were sort of gearing up for the twenty four twenty twenty four general election, the sort of naked attempt to bribe the electorate, which A didn't work and B left the Exchequer in a bit of a mess. Um so you know, because I I I quite like to take our discussion today back to the area where we really do tend to disagree because the reason the Labour Party's having this, you know, m fit of the vapors about who should lead it, is because on May the seventh across England in council elections, in Wales and Scotland, who were electing m in a way a much more serious uh set of politicians to actually form a form a government in both those places . Labour got what is traditionally in the terminology called a shelle cking, and in fact it was so severe that all sorts of people from the top to the bottom of the Labour Party seem to think that it's now a question of the party's future and whether they can remain a serious main party candidates for for government if they can't get this right. Now I was looking at some very, very interesting polling analysis from Steve Akhurst at Persuasion, who is really brilliant, and he has essentially sort of said that if you look at the phenomenon in Wales , uh you can see what we might be looking at at the general election. And Tim, I'm I'm I'm gonna come to you on this one because essentially what happened in Wales, as we know, was that Plydecrumory swept the board, is very much the largest party in the Senate now. Labor beaten into third place and the whole contest was reform versus plied. That does not in any way imply actually that the people of Wales have suddenly become independence minded or secess secessionists what it does imply very strongly is that they decided that that Plyde was the vehicle to beat reform. Right? And in fact, Steve Ak hest has this incredible figure, which I'm I apologise to listeners who've heard me say this elsewhere, but I am slightly obsessed with it now. Sixty one per cent of the people who voted for Plyde said their motivation was to stop reform. Sixty one per cent. So it seems to me that we are gearing up to politics across main land UK at the general election, which is going to be all about who do I most want And if reform can be in one of those two contender positions , then you know, the g the game is is is sort of almost up for either the Tories or the Labour Party, depending on which party's demise you're more worried about. What do you think about that? Uh Tim. I'm afraid I have to agree with your analysis too much. And you could add, uh I think Ian will confirm, reform didn't win any of the constituency seats in Scotland . You know, which is obviously the way the next general election's gonna be fought. They got their representation by the top up PR system . Um I hope this isn't a distraction from what you just asked me, um Miranda , but um I I was spat on the other day um and um the spitting was unusual, but what isn't unusual for me is I get recognized a reasonable amount because of my TV work. And it always was the case that people who say, Oh, I see you on the telly, whatever, you're a political commentator. Now and I asked Nadine Donners about this and she' agsreeded it's happen to with her as well. It's reform. You're the reform guy. The brand is very powerful and for good and for ill. And they don't talk about me as a political comment. I'm reformed. And that means I get sort of sort of hero worship from some people, and then I get spat on by very, very few people. But the same day that I was spat on, I was checking to my elephant at Castle Travel, or having a very nice conversation with someone who was attending a cancer conference. And then she found out I was reformed and she said, I don't want to speak to you anymore. And and she really didn't. She really didn't want to speak to me. That upset me uh a lot more. And I tell you another thing that's upset me this week. Tim, can you come closer to your microphone? We're losing you. Well am I am I um Russell? Well I get excited I get more fidgety. That's the problem. Um Is that better? Much better. Is that better? Okay, sorry about that. No, because it's it's important what you're saying, so yeah, let's hear it. Um and I was listening to um Hugo Rifkin's program on Times Radio and probably unfair to single out Hugo in a way, he's a a brilliant broadcaster, but it's true of a lot of the reac tion to these results. We've had the same thing. Reform uh is a racist, uh stupid , um ill thought through proposition. And perhaps that's fairly addressed at some members' elements of reform. But it's feeding this problem . And I think while it's unfair, I'm don't say that it's completely groundless. Th areere issues reform have to address. I really do. And I was so cross with Richard Tice last week when he dismissed horribly racist remarks about Nigerians as daft . Um lots of things that reform have to get right. But surely chucked out in the end. Were they I think they uh I think there is a process, I'm sure he will be. Um they have introduced a process whereby I think you can get independent um appeal um but I saw this as a open shut case, I certainly hope so. Um but uh I think it's an unfair charge overall . And but one of the other things is, you know, the left have been trying this against right-wing candidates, including Trump, endlessly. You know, from ever since Hillary Clinton called Trump supporters the basket of deplor ables. Um you know Trump is a racist. It doesn't work. All it succeeds in doing is dividing people. And what um the average reform voter I think thinks is the welfare state seems to reward people who don't go out to work. Um they think their schools are teaching their kids things they don't particularly uh like. I could go on about the complaint. Um they vote for Brexit and the Labour governing party's responses to unwind Brexit. There are some real issues that if Andy Berlin were ever wanted to um reverse the reform phenomenon would be a much better approach. But instead we're getting pretty lazy caricatures, not entirely unfair, I'm trying to say that, but it's going to just cause division and not address the reform phenomenon, I'm afraid. And I'm feeling it's pretty ugly. Same way that the mood towards Kissama is very ugly on the doorstep. There's not something not quite healthy or attractive So that is i is it's very interesting. I mean I I I I don't think you're alone in experiencing this level of uh kind of vitriol actually, Tim, and certainly certainly those who were campaigning in the local elections for Labour, I think, found the instinctive hostility and then sense of even threat in their local areas was completely new and extremely difficult to deal with and very unpleasant. And of course, one of the problems we have Ian is persuading good people and the right people to go into politics. I mean for my to my mind, one of the main discussions that I have with friends, neighbours, people at the bus stop, you know, the whole gamut is why do we not have better people in politics? But what you're saying, Tim, is, you know, prepared to be spat at. I mean it it is a problem, isn't it? This sort of hostility. It's a sort of mutual ho I think the polit political class is I is news This isn't to do with those sort of you know perennial surveys on trust levels that Ipsos has been doing since the days of of Noah. This is this is something different. This is this is vitriol . So I would s I'd I I think what Tim is saying is really interesting and I'll re certainly reflect on it. But just just one bit of histor ical context. I I'm not sure I'm not sure how new it is actually. I mean s something may be going on that's related to social uh to social media and it breaking down inhibitions and what people are prepared to say to another human being face to face when they encounter them on a train or whatever. So s something's happening there. But if you were to speak to well not many of them around, sadly anymore, but if you were to speak to uh any of the big beast cabinet ministers from the nineteen eighties, for example, they will tell you stories of what it was like being a minister you know, talk talk to Kenneth Baker, I've spoken to Buddha several times. If you were if you were the m minister for employment or minister for anything and you were turning up in Leeds or Sheffield in nineteen eighty one, nineteen eighty two, and you get off the train, they gave the officials gave you a list of the factories that had closed that week and you could be prepared to be you know greeted by a demonstration that was going to egg you, whether you were going to a university or to a fac to a factory or whatever. So so politics had a a really quite uh violent feel which is o also there in the nineteen seventies in the p the the politics of uh of So I'm I'm not convinced that that this is that this is new, but it's manifesting itself in a way which I just it's something again we talked a lot about social media amplifying problems which are the which which which which are already there. I think it's I think it's that rather than as having gone from some peaceable uh approach to politics that existed before into something enti in in entirely new. But Tim Tim, you're right, obviously in your experiencing it. I mean I I I don't I mean I I don't get that. Um not as well known as you and I'm not I mean you said earlier the government I support you know supported I d sort of didn't really as a commentator. I was constantly attacking them. So I no no no no it's not no I'm just meaning that my experience is then it's much easier to be a pure commentator uh as I am, or when I wa you know, when I was a full time working um working journalist, in that you'll if p if people see you, they'll say to you So that's what Miranda gets and what I get, we don't actually get the associated or you know with with a particular party or blade or blamed for it. So you're actually in the because of what's happening to reform in our politics, you're actually in the front line. I I think you made a very good corrective but in that historical perspective. And it probably is different perha I think it's worse, but if we didn't uh uh argue about that. Two different things from that period that I think are relevant. One is that um political preferences are much more chosen now than then. The'yre much more tribal and inherited then. And so people are choosing the side that they vote for more consciously, and I think there's implications of that. Also, people used to consume mainstream media where you know the BBC, even you know, a a national newspaper or that had a political bias, would give other opinions or and would cover other subjects as well. It's much easier now to just you mention social media to disappear into your own size views only or only about largely about politics or something. So you know very few per the percentage of people who uh sailing into me of course is very small. I suspect the people who are talking to me are the people who are immersed in a way that you couldn't have been in the past in politics. So perhaps that's um what I'm feeling um and what is is is is driving this. It's the it's the very aged people. I don't think so. So I'll tell you to get it back to the sort of party politics for a minute. What is interesting about this though is the sort of mutual accusations from r the right and the left, the party to the former guilty to the furthest point on the left simpl istic light of left, right, sit I mean necessarily this becomes a bit cartoon like, right? But reform on one side and now the Greens is a new phenomenon, you know, to the left of Labour and quite a long way to the left as of of a lot of people in Labour. Because you sort of it's a sort of mutual acquisition. You're polarising and demonizing us. Well you started it, you're polarising and demonizing us. But actually there is a uh there is a political incentive for both those extremes to demonise the other and also to play the victim. And that's very that again is a new quite a new phenomenon because for mainstream parties, for the traditional Tory party and the traditional Labour Party, you know, it's it's always been about reaching out from your base, left of centre or right of centre, to enough people to get a winning coalition as a maj oritarian party. And my slight worry is the kind of dynamic with five parties in contention is that all of the campaigning is going to be negative and all of this kind of motivating your own people is actually to a certain extent based on demonising the others and appealing to negative motivations and almost lacking positive motivations. Yeah but I think I think the the the big factor well there's obviously been there's been there have been big changes in our class system since the seventies and eighties and uh you know if you if you if you think about how people think of themselves in terms of education, the r the rise of the university education. And th that now pollsters will tell you, sophologists will tell you, is a much bigger uh indicator than anything else of how people are likely to vote and how they're likely to view the world and their assumptions. And there is no d there is th there's no doubt, you know I'm not attacking universities, I'm a university graduate myself, but I mean we we and w all are and they're great institutions, but there's no doubt that they have over the last thirty, forty years, created a larger group of people who are very sure that they're right and because of the virtue of having had the university education, th they they assume that that they're not only right but they the the voice should count for something more and that's sneering about uh a different view of politics you saw there in the referendum where p people would say no one voted no one no one voted to be poorer in the uh I've never known anyone who voted Remain or vice versa. You know, it's the same. Yeah, that's true. It d w it cuts but it cuts both it cuts both ways. It really does, yeah. But um I tell one other dimension go you go morand you you're not going to be No no I was gonna say but just this whole question of how the sort of voting identity has changed is obviously huge Ian isn't it? Because you know you m you m you mention this fact that you know the education divide is now more significant in voting patterns, even than age group, really, or certainly sort of broad age group. And that's very true. But also if you look, there were several people pointing out in the reac in the in the results from May the seventh that the leave versus remain split is still very relevant in voting patterns all these years later. And that you know, even though they did extremely well , reform were not clearing ten percent in reform area in sorry, in remain areas, which is so interesting, isn't it? And and and and it's and it's ha it's hanging around. So all these layers of things which sort of inform your sense of yourself as a voter and what your social group believes are becoming more powerful than class identity and more powerful than that sense of you know, my family's always voted whatever, that's just what we do here.. And that's it Yeah. You still you on the Brexit question you st it it's definitely it it's still there. You get it you get it all the time and people will people clearly and there'll be people listening listening to this podcast who felt who felt it so Hi deep who felt who felt it so deeply that their in their entire idea of self sense of what it was to be British and to be European, they felt that the referendum I don't know made the made the country something that they d uh the decision made the country something that they they can't reconcile or recognise. I ran into someone the other night who who was explaining how he had eff effectively moved um you know moved to France as a result of it. He just he it it it ch it challenged his insu entire conception of what he thought Britain Britain was. And it's it's it's very, very deep. This is a massive constitution al shift and the anger still very deep on both sides. This is what I think makes the the Burnham challenge what I'm interested in on the Burnham challenge is is if if he's going to win, let's say he well he's got to fight the by election first, but if he wins , he has to be good enough to cut through all of this. He's got to somehow be Yes, exactly. How's he going to become the post Brexit politician? Because now this is going to be really, really difficult because if he wins his seat he will he'll he'll win it. And he'll need to he can probably win the by election with with enough of sort of hope change classic sort of by election stuff. It's not something that gets covered in modern politics. I mean he won that he won the last mayoral um contest with sixty percent of the vote, you know, and and and he won in every single So so say that gets say that gets him through. Let me just let let me just um offer a small thought experiment and see what you see what you think . So he wins. He's the he's the MP. He's done something extr extraordinary. He's taken on Farage . Uh emerged from this this zoo, the circus of a by election as the victor, the Labour Party dec ides that it wants to go into the party conference in the autumn with a new leader. Keir Starmer sets us steps aside. Maybe Tim's right, he becomes a foreign secretary, maybe he just disappears. Right. So this so it's now Andy Burnham after all of that and ye years of talking about it you're on. What does he do? So I think an early election is then very underpriced and one of the most interesting things about Burnham is that he's very explicitly pro uh rejoining the EU . And if you think about h how he would have to go about s how how he'd have to set about building a coalition that would give him a give him a chance. Because if he doesn't go for some kind of early election, like next spring, then uh he'll be as unpopular as Keir Starmer or as as ev 'cause the public hate everything and everyone at the moment. So you just you you become Prime Minister, you get a brief honeymoon, and then you're unpopular. So that that's just written in the stars because of what's going to happen economically. So he's got he's got a window. And the most logical thing I can I can see him coming up with is being the person who says, right, okay, Britain must rejoin Britain must rejoin the EU which causes all sorts of problems for him in uh you know in the in the reform heart uh reform heartlands, but does potentially give him the uh give him the scope to peel away green voters and even liberal voters and build a coalition which is anti Farage and anti the right. Now that if that if he does go down that route, that is going to that's going to present Farage with some quite serious problems as well and speed up the conversation on the right about whether or not they need a deal of some sort, if there needs to be some kind of arrangement to stand aside in assorted seats because they're up against someone who wants to rejoin the EMP. Between Tore Tory and reform on the ground a la twenty nineteen that that that proved so successful for Boris Johnson when the Brexit happened. If he if he becomes Prime Minister, he obviously wants to stay as Prime Minister. He doesn't want to be humiliated. He he f he's fighting and against the odds early general election, which I think is his only is his only choice. He has to say something really distinctive that is a break with the I'm I'm a Brexiteer. I'm arguing against my own arguing against my own case. It has to be something almost explosive which can blow apart if you can f if you can blow apart the fragmentation of British politics. You know what I mean? But can it could allow him to build some kind of new coalition that gets you to thirty five to forty per forty per cent of the vote. That's his option, and then that creates a fascinating process on the on the right where people have to very quickly work out whether they want uh w w whether they want a a a majority Labour government elected on a pledge to um go back into the EU. That's where I think things are heading. Okay, we need to take a break . Kitty . A great story, like Monsters Inc. stays with you forever. And Disney Plus is where you'll find your next great story. From the return of the award-winning hit series Rivals. Welcome to the naughtyest show on television. To the unmissable crime drama High Potential. Got a dead body. Gotta go. A lifetime of great stories awaits. This spring on Disney Plus. 18 Plus. Subscription required. T's and C's apply. When life gets hectic, energy ups and downs are all you need. If you're seeking energy reassurance, Eon Next can help. From regularly updating our tariffs to get you our best value, to smart tech that helps you take control of your energy future, we're here for whatever's next. Just one of the reasons why we're rated excellent on Trustpilot by our customers. Find out more about how we can help at your next dot com. Eligibility and T's and C's apply. Trustpilot February twenty twenty six before we went to our ad break , Ian made this extraordinary suggestion that Andy Burner might well call a election before he needs to in twenty twenty nine and put to the country re elect me, will rejoin the EU, dump all these red lines that the Labour Party has uh has committed to in terms of staying out of both the customs union, the single market anything that looks too much like rejoined. Tim, you know what I say to that? I say not another one . Not another one . I mean we need to call Brenda from Bristol, don't we? I mean look, here's what I think before I let you have the floor, Tim. I think that your idea, Ian, of what Burnham would put to the electorate in an attempt to sort of reunite that broad coalition of pro Europe an and, dare I say, pro business views on the centre left and to the left. I think you're right in in terms of what would be in a Burnham manifesto at a general election. I have serious doubts whether anyone in the Labour Party is gonna be enthusiastic about facing the electorate in its current mood any time soon. Over to you, Tim. Okay. Well I I I thought what it said was compelling and uh if it played out as he describes um would be a very interesting shift in politics. Uh and you know one of the dimensions other sort of dimensions of this um animosity, ugliness that I was talking about earlier is what you know the you upset me most in you know in recent times after I joined reform, because I think you are more upset when people you think of as a natural ally criticize you. Of course that's the new thing additionally in British politics is you know the different blocks are fighting each other the Greens against Labour, reform against Conservancy, without being knowledge too much as a conservative, but that that that's the inclination. But what I think Burnham won't do what Ian has said is it's not just general pattern in m Greater Manchester where he has tried to reach across uh the aisle. And if he is clever up or has good pollsters around him, um reform would be very happy for this to be on the ballot paper because what you can be absolutely sure of is that what the deal that we will get if, you should really start to consider not your unhappiness at Brexit, which is obviously substantial, there's a lot of disappointment, but what the terms of re-entry would be, and what that would do to national discourse that we're gonna discuss all of this again. But I think it would be a losing issue. And also it would unite the right against it. And at the moment having a divided right is a bigger strategic advantage for Labour. Isn't that the argument for go even if you decide that's what you need to do, isn't that the argument for pushing it right into twenty twenty nine? So I don't understand that then. Well all but would th I agree with you about that dynamic, but wouldn't you therefore want to wait? Because Ian's saying he might want to have a a general election quite quickly for a personal mandate on this basis. I think that is the the mandate he wo he would he would seek at a gener a at a general election. I agree with But I just cannot see the Labour Party wanting to go for that earlier than they have to Well they're we've learnt in the recent times they've much more of a cautious party than the Kazoda Party, whether they would want an early election. But I agree with Ian on that. Um I think the economy's gonna get worse. I think a lot of social problems aren't going away, welfare, etc. So if he does have a honeymoon, you know, he should do what Brown should have done and Theresa May shouldn't have done, and have an early election. But the Theresa May experience is just as valid as the Gordon Bro wn one. You know, she was a very bad campaigner actually, and Berlin is not a very bad campaigner, but there are risks. The British voter has a tradition. When they're asked to vote where they don't want to, Brenda for Bristol again, they can deliver s you know surprising results. I I really I strongly agree with that. I also think that there is enough scope in that really quite vague Labour twenty twenty four manif esto for Burnham to come in and look a bit bolder, but also just speed up the pace of change quite radically and be able to communicate what on earth the government's for and all the rest of it without taking some very drastic I need a personal mandate and it's going to be completely different from Keir Starmer's uh move. You know, Ian? I mean I just think there's name there for him to actually make change uh a slogan that applies in reality rather than a testimony of empty rhetoric. Possibly possibly. I mean I'd I'd I I I I'm not making a you know cast iron prediction I just interesting but just it's just a thought experiment which I th I think th th the argument against going long from his perspective if he becomes the Prime Minister and isn't it remarkable we' t it hasnt it hasn't happened yet. He hasn't won the by election, but we're we're kind of talk people are starting to talk as though this is this is this is definitely coming. But the we about the true. But the the the the there is another there's another scenario where he loses by two hundred votes to reform and uh and maker field in the by election. Yeah then there's a lot. It's gonna be interesting, isn't it? Because the Green Party seem to be completely split on whether they should actively campaign. Because if the Greens go in fighting, they could peel off a certain amount of that really important vote that Burnham needs to to uh you know pull out ahead of reform. And there are really senior Green people, including Caroline Lucas, the sole Green MP for all those years, and the only person anybody had heard of from the Green Party for all those years saying this is madness. Clearly a Burnham premiership would be a way for us to actually achieve some of the things we want to see for the UK. What on earth are we thinking of? So that's going to be very interesting as well. I mean I you know I personally I mean I don't know about you guys, but also just to sort of personalise it a bit, if I lived in a constituency where somebody who was vaguely on my side of politics had the potential to come in and revivify a government that I thought might do some things I wanted for the country, I would vote for them in a by election. I find these sort of sectarian splits on either side of politics incre asingly deranged. You know, you're supposed to be in it to want the things for the country that you think are a good idea, aren't you? It should it should yes, you're you're right. Yeah. It should it should be uh it should be winnable for for Burnham, clearly winnable for Burnham on that basis. Also because remember that uh Nigel Farage and reform uh they are going to be in a they're gonna be in a tight spot in this in this by election. I mean maybe not in the Mayoralty, maybe they take Greater Manchester and that's the that's the other that's the other prize. But they are going to be effectively campaigning to keep Keir Starmber as Prime Minister. So you've got the guy who's going to be the next Prime Minister and it it's i it's clear that lots of voters are not enamoured of Keir Starmer and the reform position will be vote reform and Starmer stays. So it it it's a I know what you mean. It's going to pres it is it's going to present some challenges. That's a really good point though, actually. The reason the two the reason the two and a half year uh go long thing, or even eighteen months, uh d doesn't work, I think is that the backdrop is going to be a fiscal crisis and an energy crisis. And the things that the things that the the things that I mean listeners know m know my view , listeners know Steve has a very different um different view particularly on the energy thing. But if you look at what what the government really needs to do and really needs to crack on with doing, we talked about defence and Starmer's from my view, um the way in which the government has been too has been too slow. But essentially you've got to it's clear you've got to get energy costs down somehow and somehow replace imports with domestic production which is good for growth, you gotta get welfare under control, which the government with Pat McFadden actually has a has the beginnings of a plan to do. Not th not that they talk about it very of uh talk talk about it very often, but they do. So you could ramp up that. Gotta get to three percent or three and a half percent on defence 'cause we're committed to it and we're in a war era, and then solve the immigration question plus deal with the whole AI you know AI destroying the graduate jobs market question. So these are massive questions which Andy Burnham couldn't resolve I don't know, FDR or Ronald Reagan couldn't resolve in two and a half years. So you're just inevitably not you're inevitably going to fall short and disappoint people over the course of two and a half years. Six months, if you map out, well four to six months, if you map out where you stand your kind of big positions on I I'd I I'd be astonished if he didn't go for it on the on the EU, considering how clear he's been saying that he's unequivocally for rejoining the uh rejoining the EU. He's not alone in it he's he's not alone in that, right? Also, Sadiq Khan, his fellow mayor in London, very strongly feels that Labour puts rejoin in its next manifesto and then you take that as a blu as a rubber stamp from the electorate and then you don't have to have another re referendum, which um is interesting. Listen, we we we need we need to stop guys. But anyway, go on Tim. Last word. Go on.