Can the right unite for elections

Welcome to Not Another Podcast Weave Me In Martin, Tim Montgomery and Miranda Green. Steve's not with us for this special post by election weekend edition of our podcast, but we're going to get stuck in a moment to really interpreting the results, working out what does it mean? Andy Burnham had this incredible result on the night, what happens next? What do we think in terms of what it means in terms of what does it mean for the right and for the other parties? Before we do that, just want to thank those of you who have signed up to our Patreon . Yay . Really ? And we're really, really pleased actually and encouraged. Lots of people have signed up for the bonus features which we'll announce in the next few weeks and I think there's a special edition on the way for those who are in the premier tier . So thank you very much and the link, the way to find us is go to Patreon not another one politics podcast and support the work of the of the team. Shall I kick off with a question to you, Miranda, really on just the scale of Burnham's victory we've said in our episode earlier in the week, I think we all thought that he was going to storm it, but it was a really convincing victory. Yeah, for sure. And I do think that makes a difference in politics, don't you? Because even before the May elections, we were discussing that even theoretically when people say such and such an event is priced in an electoral event, the reality when it hits a political party often proves to be something else and changes the mood. And I think the scale of Burnham's victory , you know, a majority of nine thousand odd gaining over fifty percent of the vote even in those circumstances where the constituency seemed designed to be a reform win has given the whole Burnham bandwagon huge velocity as well as momentum, I think. And it's a sort of undeniable undeniable argument, I think as well, because him standing in that constituency needed to prove several things that he could see off reform and also that he could unite the kind of centre left anti reform vote, both of which he's managed to do convincingly. So I do think it's a sort of interesting moment and yes, that the scale matters, the scale matters. It's very impressive, isn't it, Tim? Undoubtedly. You remember Mackefield, there was a talk of that, you know, can he find any labour seat at all where he could possibly win? And people talked about him needing to find a safest seat. And actually he chose a seat that people thought would be hard to win. And he won it convincingly. There's no getting that . And I think he had proven his credentials. He took a risk in choosing to fight a hard to win se at and he won by a margin that you know we had I think six or seven opinion polls during the campaign. I think the biggest lead any opinion poll gave him was twelve percent and he won by twenty percent . And I know reform didn't see it coming . I think we thought that he would win . But even on the night, I did Newsnight on Thursday night and got in touch with HQ and said, What are we hearing? And they were still thinking it was tight . And there is a pattern here, actually. I know they thought they would win runcorn easily. And of course, only one by six votes on the night of the Cafilli by election they thought they would win Cafilli, of course they lost it. And so there are a few questions lots of questions form on multiple fronts, but there are certainly questions about the ground operation and whether we have the on the ground intelligence to know quite what's going on . And how much do you think Miranda this is about Burnham's personality? I think a lot of it is, don't you? I mean , you know, the amazing thing about Andy Burnham is the way that he's created this persona that may answer the moment of labour's need. You know, it's a sort of I accidentally got stuck on terrestrial television the other night and there was a documentary about King Arthur , you know ? And there is something weird about political leadership and what's the right fit for the moment, isn't there? You know, Andy Burnham Labor's once and future king or once and future candidate for leadership, I should say, having because you know, let's remind ourselves he has lost out informal leadership contests twice already . But this time clearly his team wants to avoid a contest and have some sort of handover coronation from Kirstahmer . And I think the way that he's created this sort of not just personality but person a as the sort of champion of not so much the underdog but the underdog regions of the UK who feel that London doesn't understand them and in that cursed phrase we've been using now for ten years since the Brexit vote that they're left behind, certainly in decision making. I think that's been really brilliantly done when you consider that actually his CV is , you know, Cambridge, then Westminster and being a spad and an aid to administers, then a minister himself . You know, he's not a horny handed son of toil at all , but he has that incredible sort of what the Americans call folksy appe al , which I think does go over , and he's been very good at sort of playing up in this contest. Whether that works in Downing Street, of course, is a whole different question. What are you thinking? Sorry, you go in . Well, no, I mean I'm going to say something heretical about Burnham. And I'm not detracting from the scale of the victory. And it is a personal endorsement and a mandate and we're going to get onto how it's going to transform politics in the well in the next seventy two hours, maybe let's let's see how soon Starmer goes. I do think though, I mean a friend who got in touch on Friday at the height of it all who in between ribbing me about Scotland who unfortunately lost to Morocco he made that by the way Morocco were a good team. They are the depends how you measure it, the sixth or the tenth best team in the world, but yeah, we didn't disgrace ourselves, but yeah , and don't ask me about the Tartan Army, which is what you think about the Tartan . Well, it just seems to be Diriger. If anyone is Scottish, they get asked about the Tart Army as though they're somehow responsible for them or it's just I don't think anybody in their wildest dreams could look at you and say that you were responsible for the design of the Tartan Army . I just think that this is terrible. I'm saying all sorts of heretical things this morning, but I just I just I just wish we were I wish we were tougher and harder. You know, I would so long for the days of Gordon McQueen and Joe Jordan and well the Scott Scottish team. I mean, yes, we had genius fluid players as well, but we just we had some toughness to us. Anyway, that's a different story. You don't want the Tamochanta that I bought for you then . It's fine. I'll give it to someone else. Go on Dear. And then I've got American friends who are messaging me saying, Wow, the Scots have taken Boston. That's very, very difficult very difficult to convert people in Boston and or to win their hearts. And I said, well, it's not actually that complicated is it because Scotland and England don't get along and obviously it's Boston who have a certain view on view on the English Irish will be popular in Boston next . Dear. Yeah, but I'm straying away from my heretical Burnham point The point that he made to me which and I agree with him was that the , and I'll remove the swear words, but that the professional northerner stick won't go well for him in Downing Street, which is kind of the opposite of what everyone's saying at the moment. And I think it is I think there's there's a way to do this stuff. And I was listening this morning to Six Music with the Presenters has obviously been presented from Salford, in which it's clearly of the north. It's from Manchester, a city I certainly love and admire, but it's not there's a difference between that and being a professional northerner where you're constantly mentioning it and constantly mentioning your authenticity . And the rest of England, history history suggests, you know, history suggests the rest of England doesn't really go a bundle for that. If you're in the south east of England or pretty much anywhere else, you don't like being told how superior the North is and how northern someone is as though that is by definition proof of authenticity. So I think you can overdo that. So him outside, you know, outside Ashton in that footage, oh look, he's got a polo shirt on, oh look it's got a zip on it . You know, even for that, he's not wearing a , you know, wearing a jacket and tie even who's about to become Prime Minister. I just think that could wear thin and great with people I mean literally within a week or two Even remember the expression leveling up, which is deliberately chosen to imply that no one was going to be losing anything . You know, the reason why one of the primary reasons why levelling up ran into the sand as a political philosophy was everyone who wasn't being levelled up really resented it. Perhaps wrongly, perhaps people in the south country , country, rural areas shouldn't have resented it. But there is this sense that when you sort of have a sort of a message that is about representing one part of the country and seemingly above the other, the politics of that become very tricky. It's very popular with certain sections but very unpopular elsewhere and leveling up the ditch really because of that resentment. So I think you are on to something Ian. Even if that perhaps says more about the country than it does about the messenger the messenger. Won't that change though? I mean they they will understand all this, right? I mean, they've been fighting a bi election in a very particular circumstance with a very particular reform leaning on paper demographic in the Greater Manchester area, you know, the Everton shirt that he wore going out for a run right at the beginning of the campaign, you know, Makerfield is sort of on its way up towards Liverpool and there's apparently lots of Everton fans in that area. You know, the whole thing was very carefully targeted in terms of that message at the fight he's just convincingly won. I mean, surely, you know, it's not going to be just us thinking , how do we adapt this message? How do we adapt this appeal more widely? I mean, I'm not saying I disagree in, by the way, about the how irritating that that message can be to anyone outside the North. But do you not think there is appetite for okay somebody who knows the frustrations with Westminster politics and how it's done well now and they're knocking heads together. I think he's got a lot going for in that respect actually. I mean, whether it amounts to any substance is another matter. Yeah, definitely. I mean, he's not he's not prime minister , yes, and our politics is in a very strange place and it could , you know, he could definitely get a bounce out of this. I do think though that it's just people are going to point out the irony of after Cambridge he, you know, he did a bunch of did a bunch of things kind of hanging around looking to get his career started, ran into Tessa Jowell, wasn't it? And became a spad and a rising star, you know, as an advisor and then an MP, then a minister. So he's been he's been in politics his entire life. I'm not I'm not knocking that, but if you don't use a you know, I would always I think the best politic ians tend to use show not tell . And if but if your stick is total authenticity and you're constantly going on about it, then others are going to say, well hold on, you are your career career a politic ian and it would appear a very effective one. But I think should we try and get onto what we think happens now in terms of Starmer and how quickly there might be a change? But firstly, let's take a very quick break . Welcome back to Not Another One with me, Ian Martin, Miranda Green, and Tim Montgomery, Steve, not with us this week, resting after the BI election excitement . How soon do we think Miranda Andy Burnham is going to be in number ten? And it now seems unavoidable . I think it's an unstoppable bandwagon, don't you? I don't see how any body least of all Wed Streeting who had hoped for the top job himself but is struggling to muster the numbers could put up a fight against against Burnham in these circumstances. And I have to say, even though so we're recording this on Saturday morning and still the Starmer campus saying , We won't go we won't go quietly. You'll have to come in and get me copper. There isn't a contest there isn't a contest. Nobody's made a formal challenge, you know? And even briefings, I mean, there were quite detailed briefings to the lobby journalists yesterday Friday about how there's a Starmer campaign in place. They've got donors, they've got, you know, people actually allotted two roles in the campaign should it come to that. But I mean, really how realistic is that? So there's a cabinet meeting on Tuesday . You've already had at the time we're recording one member of the cabinet, Heidi Alexander, the Transport Secretary, saying sorry, but the Prime Minister now really does have to agree a timetable to go My feeling is that just builds , don't you think? And then and then they have to negotiate and thrash out some sort of timetable between them where Starmer gets to say you know, it was the responsible orderly handover in a Gordon Brown and Tony Blair type way that the country needs at this difficult time. But here are my few little tiny pieces of legacy because of course as you always say Ian they're all obsessed with their legacy. And the thing that I find o ad bitd about that is this idea of the EU summit well summits, the EU meetings , which I think are July next month , supposedly to sort of reset and fill out from the Brexit deal . Because how do you go into a negotiating room with the EU? If you're a prime minister who's got weeks, only weeks to go and everyone knows that. I don't understand how that works, but anyway, there we are. They seem very keen that part of this legacy should be , you know, the reset with Europe . I agree. I suspect that what they'll do is they'll they'll I suspect they'll keep on or that Burnham will keep on Nick Thomas Simmons, who's the minister who's handling the reset with the EU and they'll make I suspect Team Burnham will make a virtue of you know of continuity and if anything they'll they'll dial it up slightly all the stuff we haven't heard any of that during the make field by election for obvious reasons but I suspect in office he'll he'll do Burnham will return to S ounding More you know Pro U. But the question is any possibility that Kirst en might stay in some position like foreign secretary Good point. I mean yes, it's perfectly possible, I suppose . But I was going to ask you, Tim to just reflect on just for a second,. I mean it's just mesmerizing. I can't quite believe this is happening actually only two years , less than two years since Starmer led Labour to this extraordinary victory landslide. Yes, of course it was it was a loveless landslide on a relatively small share of the vote, but still it was a it was a storming majority and it's lasted less than two years , it is extraordinary, isn't it? It is it is extraordinary. And I was picked up from ITN yesterday by a cab driver and he asked me what I was doing, et cetera. And he said, What's what's the meaning of all this? I said, I think Kirstan is going to go. And he said this country is becoming a joke. He said. We'll all be Prime Minister for fifteen minutes soon Well, there's an idea. You know , government by lottery is how democracy won began so in ancient Greece. So maybe we should go back to it. I think if they put in the not another one team as prime minister, a sort of rotating job share things. Well, but the country no the country's in enough the country's in enough trouble as it is . But I thought we'll never underestimate the wisdom of the people. They've noticed what's going on. And of course, Labour noticed what was going on . The big one of their big offerings was that they wanted to end the soap opera of British politics that the Tories were associated with . And why are they now doing the same ? Well, ultimately, I think it has to be big Keystarma's fault . I thought it would be mean and you don't want to kick someone when they're down and I know my mum has a lot of sympathy for Kirstarma at the moment. She just hates the way he's being treated . There is that generos ity in people , but he has been a terrible, terrible prime minister. You know, he cannot communicate. I thought he would be a plodder that he would do a few things as Prime Minister not particularly spectacular, but he was stickered of course. He hasn't been a stickered of course. He changes his mind so much , but even then it doesn't make up his mind. He changes his mind without making up his mind if that sounds that makes sense. He's just constantly flirting with ideas without pursuing them . And he's not really led the Labour Party. He's not given them a vision . He's been obsessed one minute with reform , challenge of reform, then with the Greens and keeping the left wing coalition together. So I'm afraid I think Labour were very reluctant to go down this path and they've only gone down this path because I sadly Kisarmer really isn't up to being the first among equals in the cabinet. Yeah. I mean can I just say in defense of Andy Burnham being a career politician? I mean in a sense what, we're saying is that 's a huge advantage because you know he is a politician. He seems to like politics and he has wanted to be in it because has been said many, many times, he appears to be suspicious of the entire business of doing politics . So that has been one of the things that stymied him , I think. Yeah, I mean, Tim, you you said you didn't want to be cruel to to to Kier Starmer and then proceeded to take a baseball bet to the poor to the poor guy but I do well I think you're right that there will be a huge amount of sympathy for him , and I make a prediction that Kierstarmer within within weeks of him departing will be massively popular. I think as long as he doesn't stay in if he stays in the cabinet, I think that's such a humiliation prediction, by the way, his farewell speech, everyone's going to be saying, Oh, that was brilliant. Why wasn't he speak like this when he was in office? You know, how many times have we heard that? Yeah, this is wild tears. It's the way things are done. Yeah. Yeah. But but then this is this is I mean labour and I think labor this labour will pay a price for this eventually in that I mean this is this is the labour Party's fault in that they knew what they were getting with Starma and there was never the emperor's new clothes moment. He's I mean he is not a communicator. This is the period we're living through with all of this technological change , the party system melting down, the Trump challenge, AI, all of this stuff, the fragmentation of media it would be very, very difficult for a churchill or a thatcher or a blair , but it requires something very, very special in communications terms, the kind of conversation that a Blair style communicator could have with the electorate about the difficulties we're in and potentially how there might be some pain and then what lies at the end of that and that offering some real ism as Thatcher would have done with a prospect of hope and right from the start in opposition as well. He couldn't do that. I just don't think you can lead in this very difficult moment without being a good communicator. So Burnham clearly is a good communicator. So the question for you both Tim What's the agenda ? Well, that is the sixty four billion dollars question. It's I don't know . And I don't repeat what I've said on the midweek podcast we did, but the one sort of argument for streeting, making this a contest or for Kiestama hanging around for a little while I don't think and maybe this was part of the fault of the reform campaign in Makerfield, but we don't know where Andy Burnham stands on some of the big issues. There's speculation that he may not, after all, now make Ed Milliband's chancellor, it might be West Streeting , which suggests a sort of more moderate economic agenda . But we don't know. We don't know where he stands on foreign affairs at all. You know, he's been metro mayor of M anchester . We don't know where he stands on all these big foreign policy issues that we are , you know, that are a big part of our politics at the moment. This has been the week when the Iran fiasco has reached a terrible ending in my view, one of Trump's worst moments . And so I think labor could run into difficulties very quickly because they're gaining a leader in Andy Burnham, who I think we're all agreed on has a much better communication skills than Kiir Starmer . But his ratings have already dipped quite a bit according to Ug. They've gone into negative territory, I think largely because of the flip flops is associated with that 's one of the few things other than his communication skills people have noticed about him. And if he adopts a left wing economic agenda, if he shifts policy in very specific ways in which he doesn't have a manifesto mandate for , I think if there's a sort of a hint of left wingery about his government, he will have a different set of problems with the British voters. So I made a bet on television yesterday with a labour MP Paul at Hamilton that there will be a general election next year. And despite all the protestations from people around Berlin that there won't be, I think it's not going to get much better than his honeymoon period. And so I wouldn't be surprised if we have an early general election in this country. So Paul Branda from Bristol will be speaking at the radio. Miranda. I mean, I don't want to speak I don't want to speak for our colleague Steve who 's not with us this morning , but there is and I'm sure there will there will be plenty of people who are excited about the idea of having a communicator who talks that language of what John McTernan called it this week the return of the state I think in the new statesman and a switch to collectivism, this sense of national effort . Now, you know, I think the economics of that are absolutely catastrophic. I think we're already taxes are too high and we're about to have an experiment with pushing them even higher. Presumably wealth taxes are coming . And this is a big problem for Burnham, isn't it? If he doesn't do that, if he doesn't go for , well, he's comm whatit is what he' hass been committed to in the past, changing the voting system, higher taxes, nationalisation. If he doesn't do that people will say, well, you're a sellout. Well , I don't know about that. I mean, I think actually his commitments are in terms of that sort of bogy man left wing agenda that Tim was raising the specter of there. I think the commitments are pretty overstated if you actually look at what he said. He's very careful with his language . I mean, this isn't by the way to excuse him from the terrible flip flopping and the, you know, driving all over the road , most recently on the commitment to the Waspy women and the huge bill attached to that, which Tim, I think you flagged in our earlier episode this week. But actually a lot of these things he talks about being sympathetic to that argument . He doesn't say yes, I'm going to re nationalise all the priv atised utilities . But he's listening to a large chunk of public opinion. For example, let's just take that one agenda, right? As an example, this idea of nationalisations . Yes, labour are pushing ahead with some taking back control of the train network, that is phenomenally popular in every single demographic and across every single part of the political spectrum . And actually if, you look at what people feel about the privatised water industry , people are really, really angry with what's happened there . They look at the water bills and then they look at pictures of a sewage going into the rivers and they go to the seaside for their holiday and they can't swim in the sea. You know, people are really annoyed with this sort of despoiling of the environment and profiting and paying huge dividends off the back of a privatised utility where it's gone really badly wrong. That is not the same thing as saying the only way out of this mess is to re nationalise everything at vast cost of tens of billions of pounds that the exchequer just does not have, right ? But you have to find a way of hearing what people are asking for in terms of to quote a phrase take back control of all sorts of parts of the way that what was previously the state now functions in the private sector badly . And I think it's right that he actually finds some policies to address that . Okay, so but that's not the same thing as saying Andy Burnham is committed to mass nationalisations because he isn't. So I think there's a way of actually sort of framing what some people, for example, in the city of London might see of the Burnham threat of a left w ing administration, which is just a million miles of the reality of what's likely to happen . And I think there will be way more continuity on a lot of things and careful continuity actually , and probably quite a careful balance in the cabinet so that it is quite reassuring, particularly if for example West Streeting gets a senior role because I don't know if you saw West Streeting did a big speech on the economy. During the week he wrote a piece for us in the FT. You know, he's all about almost as if he's auditioning for a certain role. No quite exactly, Tim, exactly. But also stressing, you know, we need an emphasis on wealth generation and we need an emphasis on the economy and we need an emphasis on growth because without that we can't afford any of the things we want as a country. So I just don't really buy the burn and bat boogeyman thing because also if you look at his time in government when he was a cabinet minister , that wasn't him. I mean, it's not as if he suddenly become a communist, you know, so of course I lost it. It's not a question of communism. It's not really arguing with you with you Ian. I'm saying there is a way of presenting what an incoming Bernam administration could look like, which I think is probably quite wider than mark. Do you think they'll really tear up the twenty twenty four manifesto and start again? I don't think they will. No, but if his stick is change is hope and change. So politics isn't working and the economy isn't working , then right, okay, then your supporters or the voters he's got to win over say right well what are you changing it to and how you're setting about it? I suppose he could say in the next six months, he could hope that there isn't a fiscal crisis that something doesn't go wrong in terms of the international markets and actually we could be we could actually be heading for a financial crisis which is a further complication. So you could hope to get through to the spring pointing to the stuff he would have want to do if given his own mandate . That's another way to approach it. And then to put this put this into a manifesto next spring and calculate that it's better to go early rather than wait until twenty twenty eight or twenty nine by which point he'll be deeply unpopular because we just we know as Tom Baldwin Starmer's friend who was on radio this morning sounding like a you know sounding like someone sound like someone completely defeated and depressed about it. You know, understandably very close to close to Starmer . None of these problems that we've got at the moment on the international front on debt and borrowing . None of that go none of that goes away just because you have a change of prime minister who's a slightly better communicator. Look at the borrowing figures from the last week. We are we're borrowing far more than we can afford to. And there is a there's a crunch coming and the crunch is going to be either a government that gets to grips with it which is going to be massively unpopular and Andy Burnham lives to be liked. So that's not going to be that's not going to be him or there's going to be some kind of event which then I think I think we are headed for a situation where where it's not quite pigs. You remember , Portugal , Ireland, Greece and Spain after the eurozone crisis being forced into deep cuts. But we're heading for something in that kind of zone, just looking at the public just looking at the state of the public finances . Well, the debt figures were very bad this week, weren't they? That's the one of the Yeah. Things the backdrop. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, going up. I mean, Tim, do you think he can find a way through all this ? I think it's going to be it's going to be tricky because he's clearly the speech he gave when he eventually found his speech after his Makerfield victory and was very much This is our last chance. We promise change to the British people. We now have to deliver it. There's not going to be other chances . So expectations are being raised and the number one issue still in this country has been for a long time is the cost of living , cost of living pressures. And although there seems to be some progress in the Middle East, it's going to be a while for some of the effects of the block of the Strait of Ferms being closed. It's still going to feed through to inflation. So you know , we're not out of the woods of cost of living . So is it going to be able to do anything about that or not? And I think the impatience of voters is growing , and I think it is why an early election is more likely than not because he doesn't have a mandate to wear ch theange very much. He has restated his commitment to the fiscal rules . And I think I think it's going to be difficult for him to deliver much change within a straitjacket of the existing labor manifesto. And as soon as soon as he deviates from the existing labor manifesto, he gets into potential problems with the bond markets. So it's he's about to find out that governing the United Kingdom is a lot harder than being mayor of Greater Manchester. Very difficult. And Tim, you mentioned there the resolution of the Iran crisis, which is not really resolved and talks are going to drag on or not drag on myself for months. And I just should make a mental note at some point to come back to that subject because I think it's worth acknowledging that you and I T,im took a very different view from Steve and from Miranda at the start of the conflict, and the conflict has not gone well from a Western perspective. By the way, if anyone listens wants to listen to the latest state of the nation USA podcast, someone you and I know well Ian Jerry Jerry Baker , you know, who's, you know, sort of center right conservatory type figure. His criticism of the Iran deal, takes he goes through it point by point is absolutely devastating and I really recommend people listen to that if they've got the time and are interested. So Miranda, so we'll make a pledge then we'll come back to Iran with steels back and but shouldn't we have Tim having predicted an early general election? Should we not come back off to the break and talk about whether the parties of the right will be ready for an early election because there've been really interesting things happening on that side of politics this week as well. Absolutely, very good point. Let's start I might disappear not come stay sound like David Cameron talking to Nick Clegg in the Rose Garden. Come back, come back . Very good point. So we're going to talk about the state of the right after this short break. Welcome back to the final part of this weekend special edition of Not another one . So Miranda, I mean just before the break there you were saying you were making the point about if there is to be a general election , early general election at some point, then the right is not in a particularly good state . I mean, how on earth can the right be put can it be put back together or is this just the dispensation now that it's reform on low to mid twenties, Tories on seventeen eighteen, restore on five ? Permanently split, that's a great opportunity for Bernam, but or is there a way for the right to get its act together? It's so fascinating, isn't it? I mean, I really, really look forward to hearing what Tim's got to say about this because clearly we were all very excited about the Makerfield by election, but also this by election that happened in Aberdeen South where the Conservative Party won its first by election since the nineteen sixties, according to Professor Rob Ford of Manchester, who watched these things incredibly closely. And he, like I was, almost as interest ed in what was going on in Aberdeen on Thursday night because the Conservative Party, it's not as if it's suddenly escaped from its existential crisis. And if you look at the national ratings for the Conservative Party in terms of voting intention polls is still appalling, right ? But I think that those of us who were dubious may be slightly coming round to your point of view Ian and that Kemi Badknok's not dreadful or she's certainly doing something right . And clearly in Aberdeen, there's a particular issue over the oil and gas industry . And so her rhetoric against the government's net zero polic ies and in favor of more exploration of the North Sea fields was very popular there. But even so, don't you think it just complicates matters entirely because for months and months and months we've kind of assumed that in this primary of who was going to be the supreme force on the center right of British politics that it was just a slam dunk for reform now and the Tory Party had such big problems in its heartlands and in all and in that new territory that it won in twenty seventeen and twenty nineteen in so called Red Wall that it was sort of doomed . But now what do we think because we've got reform threatened from the right by Rupert Lowe's slightly strange but in some ways very resonant new force in the form of Restore breaking out of its great Yarmouth backyard dramatically to poll quite well in Makerfield and we've got the Conservative Party definitely not dead . So I'm really interested in what you guys think about this in terms of whether this just means a catastrophically split right should it come to a general election or whether there is some sort of possibility of uniting the right because that's the only way you win in a splintered fractured landscape like ours at the moment no. I mean, under First Pass the Post in some way you've got to convince every single person in six hundred odd constituencies that the best way to block the people you want to keep out of power is to unite around your candidate . Yeah , I mean, in the short term, it is what happened on Thursday was clearly by far just the perfect outcome, you know, the best possible outcome for the leader of the Tory Party because as you say, the won in Aberdeen South on the back of campaigning against the destruction of the oil and gas industry which began on the Tory Party's watch, we could say it begins a bit before that with tail end of new labour . So she had a successful result there and reform more than fell short in Makerfield . So short, short term were you know a very long way away from people predicting that the Tory party was completely finished and finished and that she would or should be removed , but long term , as you say, Miranda, you're still stuck with this potentially unfixable problem on the center center right that what used to be a broad coalition of interests now is now dispersed and fragmented. Tim , just on the reform point, what's your reading what went wrong or what maybe is going wrong in terms of these by elections that reform is not winning? just on the border point for answer your question here and one thing I'm very interested in polling that Eric Corfman has been producing recently and he keeps pointing to the fact that Britons, particularly the young voters are basically probably some of the most left wing voters in Europe now. And that actually if you look at the demographic of the British population, we aren't who we used to be. We are becoming a much more left wing country. In fact, our political profile resembles Canada much more than the USA, for example . And I think that poses a very big challenge to the right because all through the eighties, you know, the big advantage of the right was not necessarily that we were a clear majority, but we were united and it was the left that was divided. So if you are now actually divided in a country which has shifted in a left wing direction. That all gives really badly for any chance of a center of government. So that I think is the context. And then I'll answer your question about what happened. And I know why Amiranda said what she said about Mistore breaking through in Makersfield , but actually this is the silver lining I take from Mega Steel ands I 'm not going to sugarcoat it. It wasn't at all what we wanted or expected . But the real worry reform had was that the store was going to make a very substantial breakthrough probably in double figures and suddenly reform really would have a very big battle on their right . And I actually was hugely relieved by the fact that Restore despite throwing everything at Majorsfield , you know, actually scored less than the BMP scored in Makersfield a few years ago under seven percent . And I think if you watch Harry Cole put it out on X , if you watch Dan Wooden in a range of restaurants watching the results coming in from Makersfield. They look as glum as anything said I take some comfort from. This is not the result they wanted. And I think basically the campaign that reform had to fight in Makersfield meant that they lost the seatball badly, but they closed down the store . And I think in a way that that result is probably gives reform opportunity now to fight the battle that it really needs to fight, which is its number one problem, which is the tactical voting against reform . The reason why we keep underperforming in these constituencies. The reason why we didn't win a single first pass the post seat in the recent Scottish elections is we have a massive tactical voting problem. Even when people like our policies, for example, you know, deporting foreign criminals . You don't want a policy as potentially seizing as that to be in the hands of disagreeable people, people you don't like. You want a good person, you want a good party to be in charge of that policy. And that's why I think an early election is quite a problem for reform because we need time to address that perception. And if there is an early election, which I think Andy Bernard would perhaps be well advised to take advantage of, I'm just not sure we're going to be ready for that early election. So good that we've capped the right wing restore party at the level we have, but it just underlines the challenge that we still have as a party. it's really interesting, Tim, but I just very struck the way in recent, you know, in recent months some of the language from people like Zia Usef has , you know, it's in the rhetoric has intensified . Yeah . And that's that's pushing in precisely the opposite direction from what you're what you're advocating because that was always I thought Farage's plan would be that he was at twenty five or high twenties and the question was could he build on out and build up into the mid thirties and potentially even beyond get to thirty six, thirty seven percent of the vote nationally and win a majority in government on that basis ? And all the stuff that I see from use of social media accounts and statements that it is not that's not going to reassure any floating voter or former conservative thinking , well disillusioned conservative thinking can I trust these people? It's the opposite . Well, I agree with that. And that's why I was sort of saying in the short run , I can understand why you need to just take some of the positions that they have to close restore down . And I don't think that's where Nigel Ferrage wants to be for reform. I think you're right. I think you outlined what is desired strategy was perfectly. I think though there are elements of in reform, and you may have mentioned one of them , who actually don't just see this as a tactical ploy to close down restore. They quite like these policies anyway and you know Mrs. Thatcher in the nineteen seventies one of the reasons she successfully closed down the national front, which was then quite a strong force in parts of Britain was by taking a very strong position on immigration. And moderate voters didn't like it, but actually the closing down of national front was a public good as well as a political good for the country . So I think closing down any possibility of restore getting a toehold in British politics is a good thing , but it has to be a tactic, not a strategy. And I think we probably have done enough in Makersfield to mean that reform now have the opportunity to address the tactical voting problem rather than the split on the right . But you're absolutely right. There may be some people living inside reform don't actually want us to focus on that t actical voting problem. They want us to continue to have this pitchfork battle with restored because actually that's sort of territory they're quite comfortable with. I'm not allowed to say something that's going to make me unpopular with Tim . We're not in the same room. We're not in the same room today, so I can't sort of, you know, say this whilst putting my head on one side in a sort of reassuringly feminine way. But I'm going to say something annoying that's going to annoy you, which is that I think there's a huge problem with that . I don't disagree with your kind of analysis of the dilemma and the sort of being inter pulled in two ways , but I fear that it slightly takes the voters for fools and assumes that they don't notice things because you know the question time that the reform candidate faced that audience where all the women in the audience just looked at him stony faced with their arms crossed and made him understand that they were not remotely amused by remarks about women that he sort of passed off as bante. Yeah, there were women with their head on their sides. There really were not. And actually all of the people who've been running focus groups about party appeal and leaders appeal and all the rest of it recently have told me the same thing which is there's actually now a bit of a problem with Nigel Farage himself taking these hard line positions . And I just don't know if the voters are going to conveniently forget the hard line messages trialed in one constituency to see off a restore threat and then we're going to move back to the sort of soft soap . You know, Nigel in his tweets looking like a toory because that's what people understand as a centre right politician. Do you know what I mean? I mean people pick up on these things of course and particular particular groups who are alienated remain alienated and suspicious and I think that's a real problem actually I think that's a perfectly fair point and you may well be right. I am just trying to explain what I think happened in Makersfield , that they needed to close down the store, but yes, you're absolutely right. There may be a cost for that positioning , even though I think it was a justifiable and necessary set of actions by reform . So final question for both for both of you . If you're Annie Burnham, you're about to become Prime Minister , I mean, he's looking at the he's a professional politician. He's looking at this dispensation that we've just described on the right , to which there may not be a solution before the election, I mean that various times you hear that there could be a deal between the Tories and reform , but then the Tories are right very worried about being tainted by some of that association. And the Tory party knows knows about killing off other parties by doing by doing packs because it's it's it's, you know, it's done itself witness the witness the coalition or what it doesn't clay and the liberals. So there's so it may just be that it's impossible for the right to get its act together and form some kind of united front. In those circumstances, if you're Andy Burnham and you're planning what you're going to do in the next three to six months and thinking about an early general election , do you not start to feel you could potentially actually assemble, if you can avoid too much unpopularity and economic carnage of some kind , you could possibly begin to assemble a coalition of interests that gets you back towards that low thirties mark , which of course produced produced in twenty twenty four a landslide victory if you take some of those green votes, you win back disillusioned labour voters who are no longer voting . You maybe even appeal to some sort of toory inclined voters who maybe there's still some of them are in the home counties annoyed about Brexit and you tap into some floating voters that it adds up to getting to labor to thirty two, thirty three, thirty four . Do you think Miranda he'll be, you know, he'll be actually thinking he's got a decent shot at it ? So here's what I think in the positive scenario and I don't say this will happen but in the positive scenario he, will take what people who've won these mayoralties have learned about appealing to a broader base of the electorate into Downing Street with him because the way that Burnham won in Manchester , the way that Sadi Carne has kept winning in London is actually appealing to in quite an old fashioned way given our fragmented politics that we keep talking about , appealing to a much broader base . And I think he's going to need that against the sort of terrible policy dilemma backdrop that we've described. And I think yes, there is a way , particularly if the right starts to look a bit scary and disturbing to voters to mainstream voters. I think there is a way to sort of take the country towards that idea of I am the figurehead of your centre left block . You know , come with me and we can see off this threat from Farage. And I think this line that he uses is saying we don't want to become America. We don't want our politics to become like Trumpian American politics is pretty powerful in terms of how the public feel about Trump and all the rest of it. So I think there is, but that's not to say that positive scenario will come good, right ? Because you have to respect various things about how First Pass the Post works in certain regions and locals for that to work for you , and you have to try and find a way of either being decisive and making people respect your decision on unpopular policy choices that are going to be necessary in a fiscally constrained environment you have to find some kind of magic triangulation where people come with you in bulk. And I think that's really hard given the challenges that we face. I mean, we haven't even touched on the defence spending conundrum in this episode although we, do touch on it regularly. Yeah, going to have to address that. He's going to have to address welfare reform. He's going to have to find ways of selling that to this centre left block in order to see off the right and that's really hard . It's going to be really tough and lots more for us to discuss on another one. Final word to you, Tim . I mean, could you see him this nacent strategy I'm trying to work through in my brain of how he does it . Now it's as Miranda said, not guaranteed to succeed , but at its heart he could pitch himself as the stop farage person , right? He could he could build towards something next spring where he says you've seen that I'm competent, you might not like everything that I'm doing but I think I've restored a bit of hope. Now if, you want to for all time ensure that Nigel Farage is not your prime minister , I want a five year term to deliver the change, all the stuff that's going to be in the manifesto, but more importantly than that to all those voters who don't like Farage in places like Scotland, where you could see this being very effective in a general election or in Wales , across the North , younger voters , places places like London as well , that stop farage give me a mandate message could be quite powerful . Of course, the added ingredient to that, I don't disagree is that he's promising electoral reform as well. Yeah. So he potentially doesn't not before the election. He's not promising it before the election. No, no, but at the general election, you know, the message that Ian has just sort of out lined is promising win win win, win one parliament, but I'll also change the electrical system if you give me a mandate which will potentially lock out not just Farage but the Right for some time. Now actually I think, it's more complicated than that. Politics changes when you have an electoral reform system and all the rest of it. But yeah, I think the electoral reform method will reinforce the one you just said out here. Listen, on that note, I think we're going to have to wrap it up for this week. Thank you for listening to Not Another One . If you do want to support the work of the podcast, you can go to Patreon and find Not Another One Politics podcast and there are two options, two ways to support what we do. As Tim reminded us in our earlier episode , we don't have a big commercial backer. We do this podcast because we enjoy it and we think it matters and hopefully you our listeners enjoy it. And there's lots more that we'd like to do with it. I mean, we're talking and thinking about video and how does all of that work and potentially even some more live events ? So if you would like to see all of this continue as we would, there's so much to talk about in the next in the next couple of years, please support this podcast. Until next week, thank you very much for joining us. Bye bye. Thank you bye