Market Contraction and Final Predictions

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Once upon a dismal day, Bob's ice cream van looked gloomy and gray. Although he had big ambitions, his socials lacked creative vision. That bad. Maybe vampid epitaph? I have an idea. Bob launched Canva and got into gear. Create the video Make it the funniest amen. It went viral. Bob's business, I revive it off. Now, imagine what your dreams can become when you put imagination to work at canva.com. I should parent everybody. I think you kind of do. Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. So I just flew in from San Francisco and boy are my arms tired. I've heard that track before. I know. I I don't know why I keep doing the the night flights things. I just keep I think I'm getting too old for it. Um but I had, as you can hear everybody, I have a cold, and I actually was there to interview Gavin Newsom for his book, Young Man in a Hurry, which is now, I guess, old man in a hurry. And uh and so I I went in to do that and it was actually a fantastic interview. We'll talk about it. Yeah, I did. I made a lot I'm a newsmaker, my friend. I know. And I just just to be clear to give you insight into our relationship, he there was a someone put out a thing saying that he was in support of he changed his tone or he's in support of regime change. And I wrote SMART and you berated me. So why don't you give us Not publicly. We're gonna talk about it. We're gonna we're let's let's I didn't berate you. It just was inaccurately depicting the interview I had just done. Aaron Powell Because I wrote Because I wrote the word smart? No, because you were tweeting an inaccurate report. That's all. I don't know. It just was weird. It was weird because it was so not what he said. Um and so it just annoys me. It just annoys me. I mean I definitely def definitely made a lot of news in that interview. Um by the way, we talked we talked a lot of about his book, which was interesting. But he's definitely not running for president 'cause no president ever puts out a book before they run for president. I know. Well no, he kept saying that he wasn't sure. It was really funny. And then right afterwards. Um, it's actually I like the book. It's gotten some bad reviews, but I think they've just decided who he is and are reviewing it based on sort of that uncuous toady slick image versus a lot of stuff that he's done that's brave. He's a very complex person, like yourself, Scott Galloway. I've heard it's actually pretty authentic. Yeah. Let me just characterize this discussion. The book I really like, I have to say. And I think I found out a lot of things about him that I didn't know his um about his mother uh I I knew a little bit about his mother's assisted suicide, but it was really interesting to talk about a lot about his own struggles. And not it wasn't the dyslexia part. We didn't but uh a lot uh about I didn't know his wife had had a miscarriage, for example. Um they have he has four kids. He almost had five. Um it was a there's a lot in there. There was a lot in there. And one of the things that struck me, which brings me back to you, which I know how you like that. Is he was the wife, uh he was the son of a single mom who was not wealthy. And he he has a lot of resonances to your with your mom. You know what I mean? Like your story with your s single mom who was I think people underestimate do some and I think they underestimate um DeSantis and Rubio. But I think right now, you know, I I I think Governor Newsome hands down is the is the leading candidate on the Democratic side. And not only that, I think i I know a little bit about his personal story, and I actually think it's quite compelling. And a lot of his personal failings, I think, will come across as a bit uh authentic. People know about them. And also I think California is going to begin not to peak, but to recover at just the right moment for him. Aaron Powell Yeah, I I suspect. Anyway, it was really interesting because I did feel like I was having the same discussion you and I have had about single moms. Aaron Powell No, you look, we're the same person ex,cept she's much more talented and handsome and higher character than me. Other than that, we're the same guy. That's what he suffers from. That's what everybody is sensitive to you and not to him. He definitely played into it. We talked about that. It was a very personal thing, but we did get a lot of news in too. Yeah, I'm reading about it everywhere. I know. I s I literally see Gavin Newsom and this eleven year old boy on stage with them. Like, oh, I know her. And my voice is so for those listening to it, I apologize. This is a good version of my voice. It was so I I was absolutely dead horse three hours before and I thought I'd have to cancel, but I I I did all manner of things to my voice to allow it to work. Um and he got to over and I said, I said, you're lucky today. I've never had a man over talk me, so I'm you're gonna get some chance to do that today, which was funny. Um and he does talk a lot, let me just say. So let's get right let's get right into it. Um President Trump says the US military intends to continue its assault on Iran for four to five weeks, if necessary. He keeps changing his tune. We'll get to that in a second. The U.S. and Israel began strikes on Saturday, killing Iran's supreme leader, the Ayatollah, as well as several senior officials. Iran is retaliating all over the place with missiles and drones, targeting Israel, the US bases in Gulf countries, Dubai, all manner of of places. Four American service members have been killed, and Trump says there will likely be more, but quote, that's the way it is. Uh kind of a callous way to put it. Um three US jets were also shot down in a friendly fire incident over Kuwait. The crew members got out safely, thank goodness. These are $90 million jets, so that's two hundred and seventy million dollars. Trump has justified the attack on Iran, which did not receive congressional approval by citing, quote, imminent threats, though he had not provided evidence that it looks like he doesn't have any. That said, a lot of people are celebrating the death of the Ayatollah. Um, Defense Secretary Pete Heggs says held a presser uh a little while ago. He said this uh is not so-called regime change war, but a regime sure did change. Not clear of either of them is true because Trump has talked about regime change and it doesn't appear as the regime has changed. Heg sex was also uh asked about the timeline. Let's listen to what he said if we can hear him directly . the media outlets and political left screaming endless wars, stop. This is not Iraq. This is not endless. I was there for both. Our generation knows better and so does this pres ident. He called the last 20 years of nation building wars dumb. And he's right. This is the oppos ite. Well, it's nice to hear from a stoke both model who doesn't know what he's talking about, but I also want to note about this uh interview I did with California Governor Gavin Newsom of the weekend for the latest episode on with Karis Fisher. Um it's really interesting because one of the issues was all the misinformation online. It was really quite it wasn't just something you treated, but That's Donald Trump, the chaos president, this wrecking ball president across the board. Destruction is not stren gth. And once again, we've seen destroy not our allies and relationship to the rest of the world, but we're seeing him destroy any capacity to explain fundamentally what the core American interest is at this moment to declare war, to go News had posted on S over the weekend the corrupt and repressive Iranian regime must never have nuclear weapons. Leadership of Iran must go, but that doesn't justify the president of the United States engaging in a legal, dangerous war. Very similar to what uh Senator Warner said. All all the senators pretty much said this guy deserved to die, and at the same time, this seems like a chaotic mess. Um let's let's talk a little a bo bit about it and and especially the economic impact. Uh the fighting has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the world's oil supply, as those recording oil prices are up about seven percent, gas futures jumped as much as 9%, spike in energy places, supply chain strain, broader ripple effects across the global economy, especially because of the uncertainty. And the last thing I would note is that, and it's interesting because Trump does respond to this, is that um m there's much reporting, including in the Washington Post, um about how he he was convinced to do it through uh Mohammed bin Salman and Benjamin Yetanyahu and even J.D. Vance and General Kane did not want to do this, but here we are. So what do you w w talk a little bit about the where it's going to go from here and your thoughts? Well the the honest answer is I have no idea, uh or I I have a a vision for where you hope it goes. But I'm sympathetic to Governors Newsom and Senator Warner, the notion that we're gonna end up after Trump is g one, we have to be thoughtful about how we improve the tensile strength of our democracy by stopping the slow but steady leak of power from Congress, which is the people, to the president under the auspices or cold comfort that they will stick to certain norms. Because effectively a president should not be able to military action you can maybe justify, but this is war. He used the word war. I know this is war. And I'm sympathetic to the notion that the reason we have five hundred and thirty-five members of Congress representing, you know, two two per state in the Senate and one for every seven hund7red fifty50,000 people is the American people are supposed to have a say. But Democrats at seven percent are actually in favor of this. So there's gonna need to be the the best thing we could do coming out, or one of the best things I think coming out of the Trump administration, and this highlights that is to have structural reform around gerrymandering, citizens united, and that Congress has to be involved or briefed, or that we have to go back to this notion where only Congress can decide if in fact we go to we go to war. Now, where could this go? As you know, I'm in favor, loosely speaking, around this action, because I always like to myself like to ask myself what could go right. Iran is 90 million people, sits on the second largest natural gas reserves, the third largest oil reserves, incredible science, incredible universities, incredible entrepreneurial spirit, actually quite a non-secul ar It was, that's for sure. Aaron Ross Powell Non-secular Well, I would argue it's anyways, not fairly non-secular, a lot less anti-West than people have been led to believe by what I think is one of the most oppressive brutal regimes in history. So what could go right? You could have one of the largest economies in the Middle East become more pro-West. It's been punching below its weight class for 20 or thirty years now, because of poor technology and sanctions, you could immediately see it come up and be an economic power that is pro-West, pro-trading, pro-capitalist, what effectively might be the low one of the biggest tax cuts in history if you didn't if you saw more consistent flows of oil and technology and a great trading partner, I actually think Europe would be the biggest beneficiary. And turn what has been the primary agent of chaos and terror in an unstable region into something resembling I don't even call it pro-West, but neutral West. So I think there's a lot that could go right here. And I think the risk assessment provided to the president, in my view, had a lot of asymmetric upside. Now, having said that, what they missed here was part of the Powell doctrine, and that is you have to have clearly articulated objectives. Trevor Burrus Or plans for next, beyond that. Well, they haven't they and and to your point, they just haven't been able to articulate in the last twenty-four hours what is the off-ramp and the objective here? Is it regime change? Is it a more friendly regime? Is it I mean, what exactly and not, you're not going to get this notion that all of a sudden we're going to provide air cover and the Iranian people are going to rise up and overtake 150,000 members of the RGC who are deeply integrated into They have outside plans. There's some great reporting on this, by the way, by uh by legitimate news organizations. They have ha they have contingency plans in place for what happens if the Ayola dies and they're carrying them out. Trevor Burrus But we okay, but in Syria, Libya, and Ira q, uh these were autocracies with a central figurehead. The RGC is very deeply embedded into the economy. So when your mortgage and your salary is being paid by the RGC, it's not like, oh, okay, the top guy, Assad is gone, and boom, it's it's a new administration. So there's a lot about the ground game. Th'eres a lot about intelligence assets. And if they had said we are going to, for example, a potential off-ramp, we're going to neuter their Navy, we're going to diminish their air defense capabilities, we're going to make sure for sure there is absolutely no ability to create or enrich nuclear stockpiles. And then we're going to leave it up to the Iranian people. That's technically an off-ramp. But I have seen in the last 24 hours them talk about regime change. No, this isn't regime change. So they haven't been able to articulate what is next. Trevor Burrus Well, I don't I don't believe they thought about it. I mean, one of the things that a lot of people are pointing out is the involvement of Netanyahu and uh the head of Saudi Arabia who publicly had said he was against this, but privately was quite for it and pressing for it. The linkage between the corruption with the Trump family and this coin operated presidency that I talk about all the time is really very clear because most I would say they're c trying to come up with a story after the fact. Oh, it hasn't worked. It isn't an endless war, although it feels kind of like an endless war. It feels very Bushian, right? Did you you definitely had echoes of that. It feel he I think he thought it was gonna be like Venezuela, right? That it was like just take that guy out. And by the way, he's in business with the Maduro administration. He didn't regime change that place at all. Like speaking of regime change. This is much more complicated. I agree, but I think he thought it was like that. No, I'm I'm agreeing with you. This is not take out Maduro and and this is much more uh He just has has cowed the regime into it, but it's the same regime. In this case, it's really fascinating how they have um put themselves into this economy in a way that's very hard to um to to get them out, right? Exact you know, of course this is their point of these very corrupt and I would say evil mullahs in in Iran. Um, but one of the things that's fascinating to me is one, the c the continued corruption of Trump's family and Trump with with in this region. And second of all, that he keeps calling have you noticed he's calling all I'm waiting for a call from him myself. Like he called Jake Tapper, he called the you know, a bunch of John Carl. He's called all the regular old media people, essentially, or the people he he decries all the time. And it seems like he's workshopping different reasons. Like it's that's so disturbing. Yeah, he's trying to trying to figure out what people want. But there is th again, what could go right here? The most powerful instinct is survival and what we pulled off here, and when I say we, I actually think it was more than Mosad than than us, we effectively, and I don't think people really register how profound this was, within about two hours, we took out the equivalent of the president, the secretary of defense, and the head of the joint chiefs. Right. They were all in the same place. But yes. And and then and what has got to be the strategic mistake of I would say the last five years, other than the decision by Hamas to go into Israel, um, geopolitically, they started uh attacking civilian targets within the Gulf. Farid Zakaria noted that this is a mistake. Trevor Burrus I mean that's just okay, you want to isolate yourself from your from who should naturally be sympathetic to you. Now, the the going back to this notion of survival instinct, at some point, you gotta think the next level down. And I don't know if it's 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000 or 150,000 IRGCs say, okay, we too really like our families in this thing called life. Maybe we need to come to some sort of accommodation with the U.S. and the West. Trevor Burrus, Jr. That would require as, you know, boots on the ground. And Trump didn't even roll that out again. Like this I here's the would really drive me crazy. This idea they're like, it's not endless war. The other presidents were just dumb. It's the same thing. You you know, they're they're just trying very hard to spin it. And by the way, you you noted a poll that half Americans support it. It's actually not the case. Many of the polls are showing twenty-five percent. I didn't fifty five percent of Republicans and it's about thirty percent of the people are indifferent. Now, amongst Democrats, it's 7%. And I'm I'm I'm amongst the 7% of Democrats who support this. But it's a little bit different because okay, what they're hoping for, and maybe it's it's a it's a hallucination, that it's not boots on the ground, that it's that it's sandals and sneakers and slippers, that the Iranian people based on the problem is the thirty thousand people that have been mowed down with the front lines, they were the Marines, they were the shock troops who were willing to risk their lives. So the reality is kind of what the off-ramp will be, or how this plays out, probably plays out in the next week in terms of the Iranian populace's ability to foment change on the ground because the American public does not have any appetite for boots on the ground. But what I talked to a senator this morning, I'm like, isn't a reasonable off-ramp that you would say, okay, we're going to diminish their ability to wreak havoc to a point, you know, zero point one we're gonna control the skies, we're gonna diminish their Navy, we're not gonna we're gonna clear out their minesweepers from the Straits of Hormuz. We're gonna absolutely ensure there is zero capability nuclear, and then we're gonna decompose what he said was obliterated in June. Just let's point that out. Fair point. Why did again, more inconsistency. Why did we need to go back in to d to diminish their nuclear capacity when you said it was done seven months ago? So there is inconsistent messaging, but I think the lies that's called Trevor Burrus In my opinion, the opportunities here to diminish the capacity to continue to levy this depravity and oppression amongst its populace and potentially liberate one of the great cultures and civilization's history that sits on unbelievable economic potential, economic prosperity. It there is a real potential upside here. You know where else there's a potential of upside? Is Ukraine. Same thing. Like this. Agreed. So what's really interesting to hear is he yells at Europe for not pulling their fair share in defense. Fine. I I can see that argument, even though he makes it in the crude and repulsive way. Uh why isn't uh why isn't uh Saudi Arabia and Israel paying for this. We're doing their cop duty and we happen to have a corrupt cop on the beat. Oh Israel Israel's sacrifice. I'm talking about you don't hear the same language, right? Saudi Arab if Saudi Arabia wanted this to happen, they should pay for it. Like if that's really the thing. Why do I have to pay as an American taxpayer two hundred and seventy million dollars for three planes? Like that kind of stuff. And so and why are th why isn't this money deployed elsewhere that I think isn our't I mean not me. I'm not running this show. But like why isn't Ukraine the same thing? Like that's that's what's really interesting because there's a country that is full of like economic talk about economic opportunities, same thing. Uh let me focus you on the toll on the U.S. economy because all these the a free well, first of all, every attempt at regime change in the Middle East has failed almost miserably for the United States, or a version of regime change. Afghanists, everywhere. Everywhere we go. Aaron Powell Well I did to be fair, it did work in the Balkans. We have had successful interventions. In Kuwait, we successfully repelled the difference there is we did it multilaterally, which is he's stupid to do here. Already Britain, our closest ally, is humming and hawing about letting us use their airfields. He wants to go it alone, which is stup anyway, I interrupted you. Talk about the economics here. So I want to know about the echo the effect on the US economy, because one of the things, because these when people start a war, it tends to be in the 60s period, right, right? It's 25. And I get that the Democrats don't like it, but in a 25 is a bad place to start when you're doing a war, which if you remember, remember the stud scud and everyone being vaguely excited when they were doing those. I mean, my even myself, which is grotesque, because I I I now have children. I'm like, oh no, no, no. But um they talk about the toll on the economy because every s and and the MAGA people, Green, um Carlson, more some even more heinous people, are talking about this is not what we voted for, right? This is not and and they're trying very desperately to pretend it's not an endless war. It's whatever word they're going to use is not going to work with these people. They they he's already struck seven countries, seven events. Like he's done more war. Like the it was interesting because Hillary Clinton was so prescient about exactly what he would do here. He seems to like and have an appetite for military action because everything's going so badly for him. So talk about the effect on the US economy, oil prices, right? Inflation. Um more danger for the US in terms of of attacks on our our own soil from the Iranians. The create I mean, if you back these Iranians into a corner, they may do something really dire here in this country. What is the toll in the U.S. economy? And let me uh add in that people were using this word of cash in on online betting markets, which was repulsive. Calci reportedly saw thirty six million dollars in bet volume related to whether or not there will be a regime change in Iran. On polymarket, five hundred and twenty nine million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes and some of them seem rather suspect. Polymarket defended its decision to allow betting on the start of the war, saying it's invaluable source of news and answers. It's feels like profiteering to me. Um, but talk a little bit of the impact on the economy. What what's next if under think of three and two scenarios, uh what's next for the economy. Well just just to go in reverse order, I actually would argue that that we have diminished I mean you have what is um what was the superpower in the region with their proxies, Hezbollah Hamas, the Houthis wreaking havoc economically and in terms of oppression of different people in the region. And their organizing principle was death to Israel and death to America. And I would argue that even if we don't have the regime change or a quote unquote liberated, uh capitalist, West friendly Iran, that their ability to strike at us and our proxies overseas and our basis is actually been diminished. That that they're not now we need to be more worried. I think we need to actually be less worried. There are two scenarios here. One scenario is we end up in another forever war that explodes our deficits and we keep incrementally making excuses for you know trying to impose democracy with an which is an oxymoron. And oil prices, the Strait of Hormmoose gets gets blocked off and oil prices skyrocket. Now, to a certain extent, if you wanted to be really Machiavellian, that doesn't hurt us that much because we are energy independent. Who this really is hurting both Venezuela and Iran is China. Eighty percent of Iran's oil was going to China, the same with Venezuela. So we can survive an oil shock, but you could have you could have an increase in deficits of a forever war, uh disruption in supply chain, uh straining our straining our relationships with the Allies. I personally think there's more asymmetric upside where we unlock um uh stronger oil flows, better technology, a potential trading partner for UP for Europe and the U.S. And I would argue, I would bet, that I believe in six months that oil prices will be lower uh than they are today. Now, to your point about costs and economics, I am sympathetic to the left's view, many people on the left, that these forever wars and foreign intervention and imperialists imposing our own values on other cultures and other nations is not only wrong, it is just really fucking expensive. I'm sympathetic to that. What I'm not sympathetic to Can I make a correction? It's Charlie Kirk talked about this. The right this has been a a a an animating Well I was just about to get there, Kara. The right has a very strong isolationist meant. What is inconsistent for me, it is consistent to say, let's focus on, let's focus on our problems domestically, let's spend money domestically, let's not run up deficits with tax cuts and forever wars in a macho military And let's stay out of other people's knitting, recognizing that we respect the right, their right to do it, you know, to govern themselves and shape their own future. What is totally inconsistent is the far-right or the right's isolationist rhetoric while approving a $1.1 trillion military budget? Because my view is the only rationale for having a $1.1 trillion military budget is quite frankly is, if on a on regular basis, you're going to go on your toes. Because if we don't want to get involved in this kind of foreign adventures or misadventures, whatever you want to characterize it, there's no risk of Canada invading us. Let's take our military budget down to $300 billion and pay off our deficit. So I've never understood the right's fascination with ridiculous military spending and then this isolationist complexion. I personally think the upside over the medium and the long term here economically with a peaceful Middle East once its primary sponsor of terror is neutered here. I think it actually, I think this over the medium and the long term could be really good for Europe. And if we could figure out a way to end the war in Ukraine, figure out a way to have a neutral West Iran, I think you're going to see the largest tax cut in history because I think the flows of oil will take gas will cut oil probably in half, and you'll have an incredible trading partner with what is one of the most productive capitalist in many ways societies in history, and that's the Persian people. Aaron Powell Yeah. That is true. One of the things that troubles me is this the one is that he really doesn't seem to have a plan and he's the president, right? And that people within his administration He'll call you and ask for you for your plan in about half an hour. My plan is for you to step down, but I then I would get JD Vance, but that's my suggestion. Um and you should go off and spend all the money you've stolen from the American people. But one of the um one of the things that I think about a lot is what that that this is done in such a haphazard way without the involvement of Congress, right? That really it is troublesome. And that these these Republicans who are against these things immediately get in line. Now look, Lindsey Graham, that Southern Bell has always been wanting to do this, right? And now he wants to go from he is a Southern Bill. And he's uh he's he's wanted to do this. He wants to do Cuba next. Let's do Cuba next, right? That's the whole thing. This is all he just in his Cuba isn't blinding its women. It's not hanging teenage girls and then sanctioning rape of them. He said Cuba, he did. Yeah, I agree. No, I'm I'm saying that makes in my opinion, as much as a war hawk as I am, I see no logical reason to invade Cuba. Well, I think that's next. It seems like they're just gonna get bored over here and come over here. But this is something Lindsey Graham has wanted forever in his endless and sad attempt to be more masculine in some fashion. So fine, fine, Lindsay. That's fine. But one of the things that really drives me crazy is these people are so they shift. These people say one thing one week and then shift it the next week. Like, look, the I know you like to attack that, but they're sticking to their guns on these kind of things. Oh, the left a lot. But the right just shifts it. Like it's like we're against it, we're against it, we're against it. Charlie Kirk said, let's not be dragged into this by so and so it's let's focus here. Okay, then let's cut our military budget to 300 billion. I get it. I get it. But I just don't see why they don't they shift this way. It's really it's it's sad because I like when they And it's meant to be a discourse in the Congress. I I agree with that. this in the seventies, he said that we have become dangerously used to a slow leak of power from from the coequal branches of government and Congress to the president. And what kept that mostly in check was a series of norms where the president would go and inform the Senate Intelligence Committee or the defense, the people on the defense committee, that he would give them a heads up. He'd invite them to the White House and say, This is what we're thinking. What do you think? Those norms are gone. And so there's got to be, unless there is structural reform around what it means to have coinquarten. Republicans are resigning from Congress because they're like, why the fuck am I here? Yeah. Yeah. Well, I'm not even good. The Speaker of the House is not Mike Johnson. He's the Speaker of the White House. He's there to run roughshod over the people in the minority party are used to getting fucked over. They're used to having no power. But Republicans are like, let me get this. I stuck around to be in the majority such that I could represent my people and get policies through and I'm not even being consulted on this shit. No. And on the on the Democratic, I'd say centrist conservative, I have never seen Senator Warner, who I consider pretty con pretty like m moderate. M thanore mo I mean, I think he's often we often disagree on a lot of stuff. He was incandescent. I've you know, 'cause he he sees these things. He knows he has so much experience and Senate intelligence, etc. et cet.era And to watch people who had said the very opposite shift was really something because l at the very bottom of this, it puts people's lives at risk unnecessarily. And not just American troops, which is terrible. It's people on the ground there. It just creates a situation that when you there is just a b this guy this guy's gotta have a better reason than to call someone and have a different reason every minute. And we'll see its effect on the the stock market's not loving this at all. Um but we'll But you brought up Calci. And what's fascinating about these things is they tend to be right, that there's a real wisdom of the crowds. And when you have uh Senator Warner who has just had a lot, this is not his first rodeo, he's had a ton of presidents and joint chiefs come before him and explain their plans. And when you have uh Senator Mark Kelly, who's actually flown these missions. If you don't if you don't take advantage of the benefit of their insight, even if they don't agree with you, you're not taking advantage of the greatest depth, the greatest IP depth of knowledge and experience in military history, and that's amongst quite frankly, many of our members of Congress. If if you're not bringing Senator Representative Seth Moulton in and saying, hey, when you were on the ground in Iraq, I mean, w instead we're we're consulting with a senator from Florida, a former Fox TV host, and a reality game show host. They're making these decisions. And the FBI is being run by a guy who likes to party in the middle of a possible terror, terrorist action in this country. Trevor Burrus, so we're they're we're they're just going to make and this is I always like to try and reverse engineer to a a personal learning here. One of my biggest flaws, biggest flaws as a man, is I thought that masculinity and leadership was making a quick survey of the situation and then making a decision, and then it was my job to talk everyone into my decision. No, it's not. Leadership is listening and occasionally going, oh fuck, I got it wrong. We need to switch course. I don't make now, I didn't learn this until I was literally 50. I don't make a big decision personally, financially, professionally, without talking to three or four really fucking smart people. Because you can't read the label from inside of the bottle. And the U.S. Congress is full of some of the most impressive exper,ienced, smartest people in the world. Trevor Burrus And beyond that, there's people always. To not check in with them. I I think Senator Warner's ap apoplectic because he's like, for God's sakes, we can save you from yourself. That's right. That's right. He wasn't out of ego. I just I've never seen him do that. It was really interesting. Anyway, we have to move on. This is a developing story. We'll see what happens. This seems like a very, as Gavin Newsom said, a chaotic White House. It might be trying to um get us away from the Epstein files or other issues at home. Um we didn't even talk about the distraction, but we'll go on a quick break. We come back. Trump targets anthropic another incredible tech company in what former Trump official calls attempted corporate mur der. Support for the show comes from BetterHelp. This International Women's Day, BetterHelp wants to remind all the mothers, grandmothers, aunts, and sisters of the world that you deserve to take care of yourself as much as you take care of people around you. If you want help getting connected with a therapist, you could try BetterHelp. BetterHelp does the initial matching work so you can focus on your therapy goals. All you need to do is fill out a short questionnaire that helps identify your needs and preferences, and BetterHelp matches you with a licensed therapist operating under a strict code of conduct. After 12 years plus of experience, BetterHelp says they have an industry leading match fulfillment rate. And if you aren't happy with your match, you can switch to a different therapist at any time from their tailored recommendations. 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Create the video in the vampire theme and make it the funniest amazing it went viral bob's business a revival now imagine what your dreams can become when you put imagination to work at canva. com Scott, we're back. President Trump ordered federal agencies to stop using anthropic after it did not come to a deal with the Pentagon on safety. The Defense Department will phase out the use of anthropic products over the next six months. We tape. Anthropic also faced a major outage on Monday with the company saying it's been dealing with, quote, unprecedented demand. Meanwhile, OpenAI, of course, Sam, ever the opportunist, OpenAI Sam Altman, reached an agreement with the Pentagon. The company claims it found a way to ensure its technologies would adhere to its safety principles by installing technical cardrails. However, when Sam Altman was asked on asked whether he worried about there'd be future disputes with the Pentagon or what's legal, he responded, yes, I am. Oh my God, Sam. I gotta tell you, you need to stop talking. A former Trump official called anthropic order attempted corporate murder. Um it's uh it's the backdrop of open AI raising 1$10 billion in its latest funding round incl,uding $50 billion from Amazon and $30 billion from both NVIDIA and SoftBank and these continued round-tripping kind of deals. Um I I I I read a lot this weekend about this, and one of the people involved was a guy named Emile Michael, who used to be a an executive at Uber, who was possibly one of the most bullying and awful executives and full of all manner of um bad behaviors. Uh when there I I he left the company and we wrote some stories the thing he was involved in that was just so um not a good behavior I would say. Um I have spent time with him. He's a he he was the one that was was was negotiating this. Uh not a surprise. Um he kept calling Daru a Modi from anthropic god like God he thinks he's God or whatever. I I've never met anyone who thinks he's God more than a meal Michael and he's usually a toady to more powerful people in this case Pete Heggseth. Anyway, uh it seems a ridiculous overreach on the behalf of the government. Probably Anthropic will win. I think it probably will benefit from this as, you've noted many times. Uh any more thoughts on this? I don't think we're any safer as a people for having done this. I don't I think what people miss is that over the last 12 months, out of 23 markets, we're the 21st best performing or the third worst. Yep. And what has changed? We've had incredible innovations. Yeah, we're up 50,000. Sorry. We've had incre we still have incredible innovation. We dominate the most tectonic shift in technology, the thing that's changing is I believe we're experiencing a rotation out of U.S. stocks and a compression of multiples. And the reason why is the following: the underpinnings of why so much capital flows into the US from every other market in the world is our incredible IP developed mostly through funding of research at universities, an incredibly risk-aggressive culture based on immigrants who take huge risks to get here. And also, I think more than anything, probably it or chicken and egg, it attracts the deepest pools of capital in history. There's $5 million in venture capital for every startup in the U.S. , there's only one million for every startup in Europe. Anthropic started six years ago. If it was in Europe, it'd be one of the 10 most valuable companies. But when governments start selectively punishing and rewarding companies based on political favoritism, that capital gets scared and starts withdrawing. Because why do you invest in open AI or anthropic if you don't know who you're waking up next to in terms of its ability to raise capital based on the blood sugar level of whoever's president, so this is not only the wrong thing to do and makes this feel less safe and it's probably illegal. It's gonna hit your 401k, folks. In even in places like the Gulf that are run by autocracies, they have a real respect for systemic laws in the market because they recognize the moment they start fucking with companies based on their own who' ins or out of political favor, uh the which has no stock market because nobody wants to invest and then find out the CEO got a call from the wrong person or pissed, got on the wrong list, and is all of a sudden out of business. So even in China, people I think they learned their listen lesson a little bit with DD, where they got angry at DD and basically crushed DD. They're now, you know, they have a lot of respect for for essentially govern uh regulatory bodies, consistent application of rule of law, trying not to play favorites. So this will the immediate reaction will be, okay, they're wrong. This is illegal. Fine. And also from a commercial standpoint, I've been saying for the last year that someone has an incredible commercial opportunity to say, enough. We're the good guys. We do not buy into this. If this if this costs us money in the short term, fine. But the very American values that gave us so much opportunity are under attack and we're just not down with it. And I'm d I don't know if you remember me saying this. I said six months ago, the biggest opportunity for for Nike, which is trading at a 10-year low, was to run a bunch of ads saying, we're about American values and that what's going on here is wrong. What's interesting is the cor corporporateate America needed a hero and it looks like it's Dario. I know. It's interesting. What's really interesting here is I think in the in it's finally happening, they're shaping up to be Joe Frazier and Muhammad Ali here. And I think that Dario is being very smart, and I think it's up to us and the media are progressive, progressives, and I'm obviously stitching this into the risk as an unsubscribe thinking. I think it's time to start figuring out if there's a way to be more commercially supportive of Anthropic and less supportive of OpenAI. Basically, OpenAI has decided to enable and be complicit in the Trump administration's efforts. And Dario and Anthropic have said: no, we're n we're not going along here. We're not going to be intimidated. This is uh quite frankly, Kara, I have been waiting for this matchup for a year. I know, yeah, I know you have. Let me say I don't I don't know Daro Emoti. I don't actually. And he might be arrogant, which is in line with most people in tech. That may be true. But I I I do know Emile Michael, who has been who did negotiate this, and I do know David Sachs. And both of them are Aryan operators, ceaseless bullies, um and and uncuous toadies to the powerful, uh in my experience of covering them. Um CM Altman is much m a little more complex, but he's a gifted opportunist, which doesn't make him that different from anybody in Silicon Valley. Um and is has has made his has made his choice here, right? That's he wants the business. And so I I I it's a really knowing the characters involved here and then on the top of it you have an idiot like uh a moron like uh Pete Hagsath, who doesn't know what's happening, communicating to someone he's who's even more moronic on these issues, which is Donald Trump, who I I think just I I suspect Sachs is whispering in his ear, Emile Michael's whispering in Hegzath's ear. And this is all a a Silicon Valley beef, right? Between and among these people. Emile was was elected was had to leave Uber under very um not great circumstances uh was pushed out. Um I think all these people is payback for other people. It's just there's a lot of Silicon Valley drama happening here. And I don't know Darmodi.. I I don don't' It don'. really't. Its unusual that I don't. And I've asked for interviews with him. I he has not agreed to do an interview with me. Uh thanks, Chris, uh Nelty. Um but I I do uh and he did a very good interview with CBS News actually, um which I thought was interesting. He handled himself really well. He handled himself really well. Yeah, it was a good interview. Um but one of the things that I know is the people on the other side of him are very uh people I covered for years who are just not good. Um, how can I say this nicely? Uh they're they're the worst I of the people I had to cover over the many years. I have to say they're literally the worst. And uh and to and to see them in these positions of power is making these decisions and hurting a company that just doesn't want to do business with them. And actually, Michael tweeted out against a Modi m weeks ago. You know, it's so unprofessional as a government. Like it's so it's such based in beefs that were happening elsewhere. And Emile, I'm really s I had ended up having drinks with him after he was sort of drummed out of Uber. And he he said something to me. It was so strange. He goes, Well, I'm so glad we can be friends. And I remember saying to him, we're not friends. I think what you did there is terrible. I don't know what where you operate, but uh let him just do what he wants and don't don't bring your stupid insecure beefs out on the thing. And it will benefit anthropic. It will. I think he I think he's handling himself and he may be arrogant. He may have a God clums. I don't know. I don't know. But he's certainly not like these people. And in that case, the bar is low. I've had my say. I think it's a big opportunity. I think I think Americans and consumers are so ready to vote with their pocketbooks. And Sam, I don't think Sam has acquitted himself well. Um, I'm not gonna have advertising. We would never do porn. Well, uh I need to raise money, never mind. And the largest customer in the world, which is the U.S. government, needs to have a series of systemic laws that don't that these are the rules you get to play by in full stop. Everyone is entitled to and obligated to the same set of rules, not who who you like or who you don't like, and which kind of leads into our next story, which is Netflix and Paramount. Right, Netflix. Speaking of that, Scott, let's take a quick break. When we come back, Netflix emerges as a winner, after losing the Warner Brothers b attle. Spring's blooming at Starbucks. A new season calls for new discoveries. Like our iced Uber vanilla Matchellate. Smooth, creamy, and nutty, balanced with notes of vanilla. It's a treat for the eyes too, with vibrant lilac hues to brighten your spring mood. Hot or iced, there are so many ways to love this stunning serve. Uber vanilla. Pouring now at Starbucks. Subject to availability while stocks last. Scott, we're back. Netflix may have lost the battle for Warner Brothers, but it's looking like a winner. Boy, this is incredible. The company stock surge 14% of it formally exited the bidding war. It also now has $2.8 billion in the bank after Paramount pays Ted Sarando said there are easier ways to make two point eight billion dollars. Very funny. He's also trashing it so beautifully. I have to say, what a pro the way, like it's ridiculously expensive. He's dropping all sorts of bone mouse in the that Bloomberg interview you did. Um, I'm hoping to do an interview with him relatively soon. He noted uh Paramount deals dependent on cost cutting, leading to less production, less people working. He's a hundred percent right. On the Paramount Front CEO, David Ellison, who got strafed by Barry Diller as a stunt pilot in a speech, another thing, just announced that. He also said there would be a lot less I think a a lot of cuts, six billion dollars in cuts that he can quickly deleverage it. Nobody believes him or thinks he's capable of doing it. Uh Sarandos had talked more about 16 billion. Let me just tell you, Hollywood, uh look out below. This is this is look, I I don't think Ellison means to be incorrect, but he is incorrect about what's about to happen here because the pressures on this much debt. I talked to, as you know, Bill Cohen went because you weren't around last weekend, but this much debt is enormous amounts of debt. It's like crazy. They don't have enough um income to they have very barely enough income. So they can't grow. They have to cut. There's gonna be there's obvious duplication that they will cut, but even more than that. Anything they say at this point is just absolutely untrue. It's just, and I again, I don't think they mean it that way. I think they believe it, that they can, you know, turn um shit into a into a chicken, shit into chic But uh most smart math m math people don't think they can do it, especially with competitors like Netflix breathing down and YouTube bleeding down their neck. Your thoughts? Well, I I think I've been consistent on this. The biggest losers are the creative community. They don't realize it. I don't know, half a million of them just got lined up and shot. I mean, they're they're the amount of AI slop we're gonna see come out of paramount and Warner trying to pass for, you know, great breakthrough content. It's just going to be like I said, you know, in space no one can hear you scream. Oh, trust me, you're going to hear a lot of people scream. And the biggest winner hands down, um and I told Ted this, I said, i if you walk from this, you realize your stocks gonna go up ten percent. I was wrong. In the last five days, the stocks up thirty percent. Yeah, back to other levels, yeah. Okay, so let's look at it this way. They s quote unquote technically save $120 billion by not acquiring it and their stocks up a hundred billi on. Kara, they could go buy Disney right now for walking from Warner Brot hers. So, and if I were them and I was Ted and I'd be pissed off. I'd be firing up my lobbyists and my lawyers and be like, delay an obfuscate, make it create so much havoc for this deal to close. And by the way, every studio, every creative, they're all going to want to go to work for one place. Okay Okay. Do I want if I'm pitching I just had my uh latest book, option for a series and for a documentary, which means absolutely nothing I've figured out in Hollywood. Your man? Your notes on being a man? Yeah, for an original scripted series and a documentary. Anyways, think of it as an R-rated Wonder Years, is how I've been pitching it. Who's playing me? Uh uh Hervé Village does in a little tiny soup. Chalamet. I say Chalamet plays. No chalamet to work. He looks like a teenage boy too. Anyways. Chalamet. So uh w these guys, the amount of money, um well let me put this way. Say say you're in the creative community and you have the hottest script or you're the hottest actor and you have offers from from the Paramount Studio, from Warner, or for Netflix, who are you absolutely gonna pick? Netflix. Oh my god, they're gonna every day of the week and twice. They look like heroes. You all hated Netflix. Now you're gonna love them. It's really and and by the way, when the Democrats come into power, that's gonna be good for them too. HBO just lost thirty percent of its value because HBO's asset was it always was able to punch above its weight class. It did 2 billion in content relative to Netflix's 18 billion. But if there was a show people were talking about around the water cooler, whether it was girls or euphoria or game of thrones or succession, it usually was HBO because HBO's culture and ability when I'm I'm talking a lot about me, my favorite subject, but when we pitched my big tech series, everybody, all the creatives and all the stars, they all wanted to go with HBO. They love Netflix, but if we had our choice, we would have gone with HBO. Guess what? That just changed overnight. Completely. I wouldn't do a thing with them. I have to say, I've got some shows. I don't have no interest. What so they can figure out how to produce it for a third of the budget using AI? Yeah, fuck you. Like and also one of the things that's interesting is that there there is there is an interesting movement. And also what I mean, I think the CNN part of it is a smaller part of it. It still is gonna be a lot of news, right? It's still because it's CNN, the the merger. And they've already made a mess of CBS. Um, but they're gonna make a bigger mess of CNN. I I have heard from so many HBO people that are like fuck, like fuck was everything in every like a dozen HBO people. CNN is losing its ever love and mind, right? As they should. And they're like, they're like, what do we do? So it's not like some stack, by task. I was like, I don't know what to tell you, but you know, I wouldn't work for those hacks. Um, but one of the things uh that's interesting is the idea that net that Netflix takes a little bit of this money and hires like the like Anderson Cooper and the best of them and creates a little news service. Like I uh they should, like a really good one. I talked to the woman who runs content at N and at Netflix and I said, I have an idea. Bella? Bella. Bella. Yeah. Start something called The Hour and hire the two-thirds of the people from 60 Minutes that would like to leave right now. And have a show, weekly show called The Hour, or 59 Minutes. I'm like, I'll tell you who's good and who's not. You don't think all of those people are looking for a way to get off the get b on the last helicopter out of Saigon right now? Yeah. And a lot of them want to be entrepreneurial. It's really interesting. They they do see the need to change out. I mean obviously the economics of a lot of broadcast and cable television is out of whack with the revenues, clearly, all through the industry by the way. Netflix should be a good idea. Yeah. Warner Brothers. At the same time, you know, as obviously CBS is gonna go uh is going right in a really weak sauce way it's really kind of wimpy right and stupid right but uh I mean if you're gonna be right go all the way to Fox that's my feeling like uh and and it's it's it's an ever dying audience, by the way. And I mean my mom's w is a average listener essentially. She's ninety two. But one of the things that I think will help. Fox is doing really well, actually. Yeah, it has. That's right. You're not gonna get you're not catching fox. Here's a crazy stat. Supposedly more moderates watch Fox and CNN right now. Well, I'm not surprised. It's anyway. One of the th because the news part is I mean, like Jennifer and there's several people who are quite good over there, but um there's a lot of great people that see that. And let me be clear. There's a lot of great reporters throughout that organization and they do a great job. You mean I feel stupider with Abby Phillips? Okay., stop, stop Scott Jennings is the problem over there. So no, CNN is the problem for putting him on and having crossfire. That that show is a but I'm saying there's a lot more to CNN than that show. So it gets a lot of attention. But one of the things that I think is interesting is it really opens up an opportunity for MS now because it it it they're they're by themselves over there on the left. Like it's a great business, right? Like it's just it's sort of like the fox of the left. And so they have a huge opportunity. I'm not in love with traditional media. This is who it's an opportunity for. It's an opportunity for Bill Cohen and Ben Thompson and Kara Swisher. I know that. You are about to see a massive diffusion of power from these industrial brands. It's already happening. But the means of production is way too expensive to all these little media company startups and stubstacks and podcasts. I agree. And newsletters. And this all this hand-wringing that, oh no, the Washington Post can't go away, doesn't fucking matter, folks. Those people are going to find their own little uh little niche media companies and they're gonna punch above their weight class, and I'm not gonna be saddled by the blood sugar level of a guy on human growth hormone in St. Bart's I get it. I just think MS now by itself being I think CNN should have been independent, would have given an opportunity to be innovative. They have an opportunity to be innovative. They do. They absolutely do. And so that's a good thing for them because they're they're all by themselves over there on the other. This is the best use of CNN. We have an iconic popular Gavin Newsom and he stacks his cabinet with CNN anchors. Dana Bash should make a great vice president. Dana does a great job. There's a lot of really great. There's amazing people. Michael Smirkanish, I think he could be Secretary of Defense. There's a lot. Anderson, I think do,es a good job every single Caitlin Collins, I have so much admiration for her. She can be ambassador to the EU. Okay. Literally I can pull together I can pull together a cabinet that looks like the fucking Kennedy administration from CNN Well and it would be so much higher than D Dag Seth on any. Janine Pyr Pierrot, that's I mean, look who are competing at the United I'm down I am down for networks as cabinets at this point. I think the CNN people are so impressive. But they're all about to and they've been doing this last two years. I'm thinking about starting a podcast because they're having the uncomfortable conversation where I used to make seven million a year and they've offered me two. Have you had every conversation with all of not just CNN. It's throughout the all the media people. They I could have a business. People anchor off the most money they've ever made and think that's what I'm worth. No one ever thinks to themselves, wow, I'm overpaid right now. I can prove to you statistically at any moment in time there's a fifty percent chance you are overpaid right now. Relative to the market. Still do well. It it's a good business, it makes a lot of profits. You could do well here and it could give you an opp it gives an opportunity for MS Now to have a lane all to itself. And I think that's always a good thing. Always a good thing. Who's MS Now star? Is it Rachel? She's only one day a week. Rachel, there's a whole bunch of there. But let me say Rebecca Cutler is Stephanie, there's a whole bunch of people over there. They're very talented. Uh and they're they're hiring a lot of great reporters. And Rebecca Cutler, who you know about, is amazing. Like she's she's She did at the Plu. Um and and and you know, i I think there's lots of opportunity. I think the the the the Ellison's will bollocks it. And coming to you soon to Kara Swisher's docuseries. Kara Swisher wants to live forever on CNN. No, I'm kidding. That's coming. I just hope it closes before then so I can see a photo with you and Larry Allison. No, it's not. Listen, it's ca it's gonna be soon. I will be out I'll be I'll have removed my my things from the closet launch. So curious who they're gonna ask who they're gonna ask to run. Let me just tell you everybody, Scott Galloway is in the second episode and he's looking fine. And and it's bit he looks it' its' its's an adorable Karis and Scott moment. That'll save him. That's their answer. It's actually a really good show, I have to say. I'm very you have to say your show's really good. You're gonna love this. Uh I did a podcast today and they asked me what was my favorite moment with Kara Swisher. And I said when you and your wife came down for the weekend and I let you spic pick the streaming media thing we were gonna watch, big fucking mistake. You pick some like art heists from PBS or like the history of great museum thefts or something. I'm like oh fuck. Oh that was a good show. And we're sitting there and we're all eating and uh over comes white leBron, your 14 year old monster, and he sits down, and I'm not exaggerating, we all popped eight inches into the air. He's bigger than ever. And also the next day, you were you were scolding him like a mother does, and you were literally your neck was craning so hard up at him. It was like watching Billy. It was like watching Billy Barter Bardi lecture Shaquille O'Neal. I I said to my son, I'm like, look at this. Look at this. Look what's going on over there. Yeah. Anyways, it was my that's my favorite. That's right. I should mu I should parent everybody. I think you kinda do. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, wins and fa ils. Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and fails. I can go first if you go first. I have to say I I uh we talked I talked too much about Hedo Robbery, but I thought Connor's story did a great job uh on SNL this week. I usually Oh my god, that's my win. What? What okay? You take it, you take it. Let's discuss it. Go ahead. Go ahead, take it. I feel that SNL thread uh my win was SNL. I thought they thread the needle perfectly. This week. Yeah. Not every week. Yeah. They they honored the women's team. But at the same time I, think it's bullshit all the shit the men have taken. Yeah. I think for them to wouldn't have been great. If you listen to the video, this was President Trump taking everyone back to the 50s and mocking women. That is not what we need. We need a more evolved sense of masculinity that celebrates great athletic performance. By the way, eight of twelve medals from the women. The goal uh uh uh the the overtime goal, the in my opinion, one of the great moments in sports history of the women's hockey team They threaded the needle perfectly because I do think the men got more shit than they deserved. Let's blame Cash Patel. What are they gonna do? What are they gonna do? I agree. Anyways, and if you listen to the tape when when uh Trump made those wildly sexist remarks, there were one or two men's hockey players saying, two for two, they were trying to acknowledge that both the men's and the women's team. And SNL did it perfectly. They did. Yeah, women and oh that books. They made some jokes. They had the women make the jokes. And the men were there. And the men were there to take it. Take it. And they were fine with it. They thread the needle perfectly. And it was critical that Connor's story was standing in between them. I have to say, he's such a likable person and such a talented physical comedian. Like his stripper who got in a car accident was so fucking funny. Like I I don't believe they pulled that one off. Um I have I have to say he is such a delightful figure. He's very talented. He's a delightful figure. Both of them are. Season two, like scorching hot rivalry with the women's hockey team. Daddy's here for it. Yes, yes. And I thought the women handled it well. So well done. The riders at SNL are geniuses. And you know who who sucks? Cash fucking patel. Why are you invading these guys when? Like as if you in reflected fucking glory, you you tubby loser. Like forget it. Like how dare you? That now I've focused only on cash patel. I I I I I really am. think he's just the worst. So uh my fail is I think this this situation with anthropic. I think it has to be we are not. I think though are they are bullies. I think they use Twitter as a a way to attack people in a way that's really unprofessional. You can have differences and everyone's already always grabbing for power and grabbing for money. I get it. It's gone on since the beginning of time. But the way you're doing this is all about your insecure childhood traumas that are being writ large on the rest of us. This is not professional. You do not have to like do this. And they do it as like keyboard warriors on Twitter. Um I got a text from someone I'm gonna say who it was who said, You got the world is happening on Twitter, you gotta be back here. And I was like, I'm not going back to that Nazi porn bar that enjoys making children sexual. I was like, the world is not happening on Twitter. The world is happening in the world, you guys. Like you need to fucking get out of your own fucking way. You are you are you you have to understand that what you're doing is damaging to most people and that we don't want to hear about all your beefs and all your traumas and everything else. If anthropic doesn't want to do business with you, just let's move along. Let's just move along. And I'm sorry you're not as successful as Dario Emoti or smart Emile Michael, but you're gonna have to live with it as as being an uncuous toady to the powerful. Stop it. Like that to me is is the loss. You go ahead. Mine's exactly the same, but I'll I'll look at it through a shareholder lens. I'm looking at a company called Mercado Libre, which is the Amazon of Argentina. And one of the reasons I'm looking at it is that effectively when the BRICS were in vogue, you know, the price earnings multiple of certain Latin American markets was about 20. And it went down to eight because all the flows went into U.S. tech stocks, which meant you could you could increase your earnings two and a half fold over 10 years and your stock was flat. You can't outrun multiple contractions in a market as a stock, and it's all under the same auspices and market dynamics, trump individual performance. At the same time, it's almost impossible to be wrong when you have multiple expansion. It has been American investors, you know, we all think we're geniuses right now in our 401ks. We have had multiple expansions since 2008, and we're about to experience multiple contraction, and we're already experiencing it. We were 21 out of 23 markets last year on a dollar adjusted basis. Everyone else outperformed us. And one of the reasons, people don't realize we have just lost trillions of dollars when the Pentagon starts picking winners and losers. If Andorral, which makes weapons, decides that, yeah, we are gonna figure out we're gonna use Silicon Valley ethos to help the defense department kill people and people freak out. Well guess what? They're allowed to do that. It's not illegal. They're allowed to do that. When Palantir says we're gonna work with the government of Israel to track down terrorists and kill them in their homes, that you may find that distasteful. It's legal. They're allowed to do it. And anthropic, when they decide we don't want to provide our services or data for what we feel is the surveilling, the illegal surveillance of U.S. citizens, they too are allowed to do that. And when governments start playing political favorites in markets, the rule of law is no longer applied, and you're multiple on companies, your price earnings multiple begins to contract. Freedoms and systemic laws and a separation between government and business results in higher price earnings multiples and greater increases in 401ks and your ability to retire earlier. And this bullshit Pentagon stationary war on anthropic is going to cost U. S. investors trillions of dollars as people decide to go where they know who they're waking up next to, that they can invest in a company, and they do the assessment based on the laws at hand. Is this company succeeding or failing based on the current laws? And they don't have to try and guess what the one-off individual laws will be in a few months. So I have the same win and same fail, uh, but I look at it as an investor. I'm now looking at markets. People get angry at the tocracies in in China or in the Gulf, they have a huge respect for the domain or the sovereignty of investors and having uniform laws that apply to everyone equally. And we are now becoming that nation where we decide which companies win and lose. And all that means is our PE, we're about to experience multiple contraction which you cannot outrun. Aaron Powell Not for long. Let me just say you feel it. Can't you feel it? And speaking of feeling it, that's got this has been a great discussion, I have to say, I was a little worried this morning. Um, I was also tired, but this has been a really great discussion about these things and disagreeing in a really uh civil way. But let me say, it's gonna continue because we're going. Where are we going, Scott Galloway on Sunday? Big announcement, full time resources, and b by the way, Sam, it's not gonna be a good night for you. No. It's not gonna be a good thing. Sam we're talking about. Forty-eight hours. You put Kara Swisher on an invite, and forty-eight hours we sold out the Pantages at that. Both of us. We sold it out. And we want to thank Tane Danger for doing an amazing job for us in Minneapolis. My favorite porn star. He's your favorite porn star, and he's an amazing danger. And our staff who's working really hard. We sold out right away. We are coming to Minneapolis. We have special guests. We are very excited. Um, and we will talk about the next move. Scott will Scott who',s the president of Resistant Unsubscribe. Um, I'm just a helper. We want to hear from you, send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nmag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51 Pivot. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back on Friday. Today's show is produced by Lara Nayman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Kate Gallagher. Ernie Intertit engineered this episode. Jim Mackle edited the video. Thanks also to Jabrose Mesivario and Dan Shallon, and Shark Core's Box Media's executive producer podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York magazine and box media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business care. Have a great rest of the we ek.