Cerberus IPO and Market Froth

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The second handles every customer conversation, 24 by 7, answering questions, recommending products, handling orders, both on brand and OAS-on. Your next hires, Clavio's AI agents. Get started at kl av y o.com . Support for the show comes from Core Wave. Everywhere you look, AI is expanding what we thought was possible . And at the center of it all is Cor weave, Medical Research and Diagnosis, Education, Complex Visual Effects for Movies, Science and Technology Breakthroughs. Coreweave powers AI pioneers around the world with purpose-built tech, building what's never been built before. CoreWeave is the essential cloud for AI, ready for anything, ready for AI. To learn more about how CoreWeave powers the world's best AI, go to Coreweave.com/slash ready for anything . That is the most Kara Swisher thing Kara Swisher has ever said hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Sw isher. And I'm Scott Galloway. Guess who I spent a several wonderful days with this week? Several? Several. I don't know. Who? It's my son Alex, legs. We had a great time. We I took him to New York. I had to go up and interview Joanna Stern, who's written a boat book called I Am Not a Robot, which uh Alex really enjoyed the the said the it was at the ninety second street, why. But it was really nice. And and I have a new proposal for us, Scott. I have a new idea. I think it's really nice to spend quality time with one kid at a time, right? To like do something you you do that, don't you? Like take one, not both, but like one special thing for like a day or two, w whatever they want to do. What do you think? I think that's a great thing. I would say if it's not a family trip, I do a trip with one of them, not both of them. Yeah. Yeah. I thought that you do that. And I was thinking that. I was thinking that's a really good thing. It was such a nice quality time to and I don't I don't like the word quality time, but it actually was. It was where 'cause everyone's you know, as you know, I have a talky family. So everyone's competing for for you know, it's just a lot of people all at once, but it's just nice to have concentrated time with one kid at a time. I just Yeah, it's nice. Um Oh I went I went and saw um Devil Wears Proud of it too. And took an edible, went and got Why? Did you take your wife? What what was the cause of you going to school? I did my favorite thing in the world. I um I'm here just solo with the kids. I took an edible, they didn't want to see it with me. And uh they don't like they don't go to movies. And I went and I ate at the bar at this place called Lena, which is this Italian restaurant at the bottom of Marlon or of is it Marlone High Street? Yeah. And then I walked over to the I waited until I saw you. I thought you looked really good. I waited until I saw Justin. I thought he nailed his part perfect and then I and then I pieced out. I know what exactly what fucking happened. That's it's the same goddamn movie again. There's no differently that you know it's really even stranger. They all look like they've been frozen. They don't look any different. It was twenty years ago. I know. Don't they look great? Everybody looks exactly the same. Yeah. But it's the same story. Oh there's Annie who wants to be a journalist and she's been a journalist and no journalism. No, you're wrong. It's a huge global hit. I love how you like try to trash it. Which doesn't mean it's good. Marvel Marvel controls the box office. No, no, no, no. This is doing rather well. All these individualized movies are doing really well and you love to resist it, but it's the case. People who people are liking you're into story right now, very much so. And like s smaller story. Yeah. And you want to see something that's well done? Watch Running Point. Which also stars Justin. It's great. I love it. Uh on the plane back from Europe. Yeah. It was such a walk down memory lane. I moved to New York in 2000. And that was literally the heyday of magazines. And Condonast was the bell of the ball. And it it, I mean, it's such candy. It reminded me. Francis Ford Copeland, maybe you remember this. He did a movie, it was three or four movies in one, and the production values just dripped off the screen. And it wasn't it reminded me of that movie. Oh, I think it was called New York Stories. And it was just three different um it was a nineteen eighty-nine and it was uh th three different sort of New York stories, such great talent, such great production values, but the stories just weren't that compelling. That's how I felt about this. I could have I just enjoyed watching it because the the fashion is so beautiful and it just takes you back to a really kind of, I think an iconic time. You never realize you're in a golden age until it's gone. Yeah. Absolutely. And this was sort of reminiscent of that golden age. And they did pay some homage to the disruption of digital talking about social media. But the talent , the talent in the visuals and the cinematography, in the fashion, and everyone's so fucking good looking. That's worth the whatever it was, twelve pounds. But it's a pretty thin story. Oh, I don't know. I think Justin was fantastic. I think that's I think it was it you know, they're so good. Like watching these people do their stuff is just completely punishment. And it's beautiful talent. Beautifully made is what I like. I thought it was actually a lot deeper. And I thought I think because of uh the interplay between Justin and Meryl Streep and that one scene, it's which you might have missed was really amazing. I did enjoy Meryl Streep having an HR person following her around. I feel like you know what I we'll we'll finish this up, but I feel like I should get someone like that for you going kill myself and like she can't say that you can't say that don't say uh was uh she's from uh uh Bridgerton she was in Bridgerton she's amazing she's everybody oh even small yeah she's the wife. She's the it's second last season. Married uh the other Duke of Earl. She's beautiful. But she was fantastic the way she she like you can't say that. I f I literally was thinking of getting you one of those. It's like a helper. Anyway, you are that person. I am. That's true. I do. You can't say that. You can't say that. Um okay, let's get into it. Before we get into news, I want to chat about a piece in wired titled The Sad Wives of AI. Author details how the AI boom has created a wave of women, especially in tech heavy circles, because men working in or obsessing over AI are emotionally and mentally consumed by it. One therapist mentioned in the piece says her client base is almost entirely women whose husbands are professionally adjacent to AI , over seventy percent of AI skilled workers are men. I I um just made me laugh. I'm not I'm not really a sad wife of AI, but you you I was interviewing Joanna Stern uh this week at the 92nd Street Y, she's written a book called I Am Not a Robot, where she lived with AI for a full year. And I was thinking, well, I I discussed how much you use it compared to me, which was interesting. I don't know what you think about SADWIS AI, but it's interesting. This article really shook me and I think it calls on a much bigger issue more with young men. But I think what's going on here is that it's it this isn't about men falling in love with machines. It's about men choosing control over connection. And I think it's a I think it's a dangerous trend, especially among young men who are forming their approach for their to relationships their entire life. And that is the following. Real relationships require friction. Right. As I said. AI removes friction. And I uh amongst my friends, and I've talked about this openly, and I've said this, I modulate my consumption of porn because I want that energy and that how Having sex with someone takes real work . And you know what it does? It turns you into a better man . It it it makes you think about what turns that person on. It makes you think about connection. It makes you think about how you become more attractive. And when men start finding, you know, opting for control in frictionless relationships. It's not just porn though. It's just like spending time with it, right? Like really This is a substitute. Porn is a substitute for intimate sexual connection. And AI has becoming slowly but surely a replacement for I sit down with I'm doing a lot of virtue signaling right now. I sit down with my son when I put him to bed every night and it's he talks to me about his day. I won't let him be on screens in his room because I'm worried at some point he's gonna just start talking to his AI about his school day and asking him for advice. And here's the bottom line. What is usually the right thing is usually the hard thing. And relations nothing is harder and nothing is more rewarding than relationships. And w when you come across when you're young, you can start believing that real relationships feel unnecessarily hard and therefore less appealing or more bluntly, when the alternative is a partner relationship that never disagrees , relationships in reality start looking like a bad deal and we become more disconnected. No, I well I did that interview with Sherry Turkle for the the my uh my series and she was like it used to be a side light there was always an And she goes, and now it's nearly everybody. Like it's very mainstream. And I think, you know, people say it's men and women, but it's largely men. Like men. I've been very seduced by AI around business. But I've decided and what I tell young men is you gotta earn your sex. Don't try really try to modulate your porn. You gotta earn your relationships, your intimacy, and your sex. And when you do that,'s what makes it really rewarding because memo, it's really hard. When you need advice, go to friends, go to your go to your parents. If you're looking to brainstorm and you're looking for additional data, what it it's bad Like, why do you she go, she was noting it was many more men than women, and I said, and more many more men making it or creating it and everything else. And she goes, What do you think? And I said, I think men can't have children, and this is a version of children. Like they're creating a being , like they they're creating and f shaping a being in a way that they want to, with control, which is exactly what you said. And I think it's it's a real it's a version of that of total control over We see declining male participation in relationships. When men don't have a romantic relationship, their friend network goes down. When women don't have a romantic relationship, their friend network goes up . And it results in increased isolation. We are men, especially men, are substituting relationships with digital alternatives, gaming, porn, and now AI. And this is what happens. When you become increasingly digital, you become subject to the whims of shareholder value, which want to take you to the extremes and also elevate incendiary content, nationalist content, misogynistic content, content that demonizes immigrants or demonizes trans kids. And you end up with a cohort of people who take their natural aggression, which can be very positive if channeled the right way in terms of risk taking, in terms of saving other people's lives. But when it's channeled through digital means and you start blaming other people, it can lead it can lead to nationalisms, strongmen. I think this is a really big issue. Yeah, it is. It's I had a really interesting discussion with Alice. I was asking him how he used it. Actually, I found the way he used it. I said, I want to know exactly how he used it. And I think he's they're very honest with you, my kids. He uses it, for example, is he he puts problems in it and then he said it's like an as it's like an assistant a tutor, right? An assistant tutor that they go through he has very complex math problems obviously th with his school 'cause he's in such advanced uh calculus and everything else. And he said I I walk through like it's a it's a a teaching assistant and then I put it away and do the problems myself and then I have it look and see where I went wrong and then I do it again myself. So it's a really she he uses it in a way that I think is smart anyway. Um but he doesn't use it for you know he has a nice girlfriend and he you know, they get into beefs and this and that, but it's um but they're they also have a relationship and I think it's I think that's not a dumb way to use it. Anyway, uh it's a really sad story. You should read it. It's in Wired. So let's get to the news at the time. Speaking of men, men, men, men, men. Uh the the photos out of China are really quite disturbing. It's only men at the table here. Um President Trump and uh Chinese President Xi uh have met for a little over two hours right now at and attended a state banquet to start off their two-day summit in China. In Xi's opening toast at the banquet, Xi said achieving The White House said both sides agreed that the Strait of Hermoo's must remain open. Trump is joined in China by seventeen American business leaders, including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang. uh a surprising lack of women on this strip everywhere. Uh we and also China experts. We asked Alice Hahn, uh director of Green Mantle and co host of Prof G's own China Decode podcast uh for her thoughts on the summit. Let's listen to what she has to say So US President Donald Trump is heading to China. This is the first visit by a sitting US president since 2017 when Trump was last president. I'm carrying a three-point scorecard going into summit in terms of rating it. Number one, will there be any indication as to tariffs and trade? Number two, will both sides agree to freeze or maybe even loosen certain export restrictions on chips and rare earths. And number three is the thornier geopolitical question. And I think both sides will have two very different readouts on Iran, but certainly both leaders will be talking about it. And I believe that Trump will apply some personal pressure on Xi Jinping to help resolve it, although the I suspect the Chinese will be reluctant and push back on any kind of collaboration over Iran. I think this will be largely summatary without substance and it does pave the way for more summits to come with potential for two or three other meetings and a Shi visit to the US later this year. One concrete prediction I have for this summit is that China will increase Boeing purchases of aviation equipment. I think the fact that the CEO of Boeing is going there with Trump is an indication of that direction. Interesting. Um obviously she does summetry is a really good word. Um it's uh y you know, it's interesting because a lot of the coverage out of it is that the China thinks we're a declining empire. And uh of course who we brought was interesting. You typically bring business people on the And you brought all mostly tech people or tech adjacent people. Um I think most people feel that n as as she says nothing's gonna come out of this and it'll be interesting to see what signals uh she sends uh versus Trump, I think. I think he's a more important person to pay attention to. Your thoughts? It's not who he brought, it's the ratio. He brought 17 CEOs with him and three diplomats. So it feels as if America is just becoming an operating system for the wealth of the top one percent. And they try to get the millionaires on a plane, like snakes on a plane. Yeah. And what's the minimum amount of cheap calories and and entertainment, you know, bread and circuses we can throw at the bottom ninety nine such that they don't, you know, revolt. I it i and there's no there's no policy, there's no prep. He sounds like an eighth grader with terrible, you know, who's had to take he's failed English so many times he's gonna have to take it as English as a second language. It's like Jesus Christ, can can someone buy the guy elements of style before he gives a talk? I mean he just Chinese restaurants? I I didn't even understand what he was talking about. They're laughing at us. You can feel it. And they uh I thought the most important statement, because you can be clear, while he's sort of he's sort of improvisation with a mic, you can bet she calibrates every word. Yes. And the words that she said that I think should send a chill down everyone's spine is he said that he hopes that America's current approach, something effect of America's current approach towards Taiwan could result in a clash. And Trump hasn't really said a lot about Taiwan. He's not flying to Taiwan with Speaker Pelosi and publicly cementing our relationship with the ally there. He's basically Yeah, or or not even a warning. It was more I saw it more as like a preview that we are gonna start we are seriously considering some sort of soft or not so soft repatriation, acquisition, invasion, whatever use whatever word you want of Taiwan. And I think had Trump had more elegant diplomats with them, they would have immediately responded and put out a statement along the lines of , you know, uh we are all both nations are committed to peace and just as I'm sure we've witnessed the incredible fighting force of Ukraine when armed with technology, they can repel a much larger aggressor, which in my opinion would be an elegant way of saying stand the fuck down when it comes to Taiwan. Trevor Burrus Right. He doesn't sound like he was. And he would never he doesn't think he doesn't he doesn't have the diplomats of the IQ to respond to what was really the only substantive statement made at this summit and sending Huang over, Jensen used to have 90% share of chips over there. It's gone to zero. Because China's figured out that if I provide my local entrepreneurs with the incentives to catch up, they just might. And uh our trade has gone from twenty-three percent of their exports used to come with us, now it's seventeen percent. They have bigger trade with the with ASEANA, the Asian the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and also they do more trade now with Europe. Yes they do. So w we showed a you know it it looked less like diplomacy than sort of two cas ino owners trying to refinance each other's debt. Trump c came in as the guy asking for an extension on his marker or his credit. We are mutually each of us has a foot should we decide on the other's carotid artery. They own 70% of rare earth minerals and 90% of the processing we own or control with Taiwan eighty to ninety percent of sophisticated chips. Which is why Jensen was there to be able to sell uh this is something Trump barred, by the way, and then now he wants to sell the chips into China. Yeah. So Can I make a comment about all the business people as you said? I mean it really was th the there's so many important issues like there should have been a discussion about global AI standards uh in warnings, just the way we 're with this group uh cooperating on scary shit . And this group is all in on whatever. It's there's nobody who is a everything they do, nobody is a critic of it. This is like, you know, flying billionaires on a plane to China to get shit seems problematic from a visual point of view. Trevor Burrus You're exactly right. This should have been an opportunity to develop the modern-day equivalent of Interpol. We have cooperation even amongst Russia and China around nuclear weapons. We cooperate and we go kill people if we think they're trying to mix up a biological, you know, a bi uh you know, a bioweapon. We cooperate and we go find those people and we arrest them or kill 'em. We should be doing the same thing with cooperating around A . Publicly . I I suspect there's behind the scenes stuff happening, but of course there is. But at the same time, with this gang, just like with the advisory council on AI, it has nothing to do with safety in AI or anything else. It has to do with let's do some business here. And as long as it's good for us and my rich friends, I'll do it. But it it was so it was he looked tired, he looked old, he looked addled. And then he was tweeting his the word tr truth in his little heart out, like with his apparently the piece in the Wall Street Journal. I don't know if you saw that piece of him. Whatever. It's this lady who helps them, this young lady who has a startling uh uh resemblance to Ivan ka, uh who stays up with them late at night and does this and the even the White House people don't know what to make of the situation. And the journal was implying some stuff like they were trying not to, but she facilitates him posting this crazy stream of lunacy. When I'm old, I just hope I have someone facilitating me. Anyway, um his name is Manny. Okay, I know. I know. Manny is gonna the soft hands. Manny with the soft hands. I'm gonna I'm looking for manny anyone named Manny with soft hands, call me and I'm gonna get you ready for Scott, which should be in about ten years. Okay, well, 10 years, don't you think? I'm I'm I'm difficult, but I am very generous in terms of competition. I know you but when do you think you'll be going down? Like going down. Went. No. No, but really going down, like hard. I mean like in the need for a manny. In the need for a manny. I'd say eighty-two for you. Jesus, that early? I think so. My dad, my dad I'm assuming I'll follow the pattern of my dad. At about ninety-three, my dad China's no longer trying to copy Silicon Valley. They're trying to replace it. That's correct. Alibaba alone is gonna spend fifty-three billion dollars on AI. We're so focused on the hyperscaling and the capex here. You know, U.S. hyperscalers are spending $650 billion, but $53 billion from one company China usually typically has the ability to make their dollars go much further. And what they offer is the fastest zero to a billion dollar companies in history have one general business strategy. And we like to think it's the innovator. No, it's not. The second mouse gets the cheese or specific ally the shareholder value. And the most dramatic or the most accretive business strategy in history is to provide the following 80% of the leader for 50 percent of the price. My first strategy engagement of profit was basically this idea, and that was a lot of people couldn't afford the gap in the 90s. A lot of people think of it as being a kind of a middle class retailer. The gap is expensive for a lot of people. Most people can't afford $22 pocket teas. And the idea was let's tap into this huge population of single mothers who are very conscious about their children's confidence at school and offer 50% , or I'm sorry, 80% of the gap Southwest is essentially when it started, 80% of the majors for 50% of the price. China's entire strategy is we'll give you eighty percent of a semen cell tower for forty percent of the price. Yep. They're very innovative too. I let's uh let's say you know, w this idea of what they they're they are a very dynamic autocracy. Let's just say they are a very like dynamic and nimble autocracy. That's incredible. Yeah, and they have tons of problems. There was just an interesting I mean similar stories, decline in marriages, decline in kids. They certainly plan that for demographic I mean they have their own issues. Youth unemployment, demographics, uh real estate, overlevering real estate. Morale, stuff like that. Yeah. Which is prob more problematic in an autocracy. But it's a problematic here too. Um all right, Scott. Uh we'll see what happens. Nothing it's a nothing burger. We'll see if they have do more but the I agree with you Taiwan is where we need to fake focus um that will be a disaster of a di that will be our greatest crisis of this year I think um okay Scott, let's go on a quick break. we When come back, Sam Altman takes the stand . Support for the show comes from Quince. It's hard to get everything you want, especially when it comes to your clothes. But what if you could find pieces that feel effort less, comfortable, and still put together? Thankfully there's Quince. Their fabrics feel elevated, the fits are flattering, and everything just works without overthinking it. Quince has all the wardrobe staples for spring, think 100% linen short s and shirts from $34 , lightweight breathable and comfortable, but still look put together, and clean 100% Pima cotton tees with a softness that has to be felt. 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So this isn't in the script, but I've connected it to my Gmail and found an incredible augmentation to search. For problems we're solving, get started with Cloud Today at Cloud.ai slash pivot. That's cloud.ai slash pivot. And check out Cloud Pro , which includes access to all of the features mentioned in today's episode. Cloud.ai slash pivot Scott, we're back. It was Sam Altman's turn in the hot seat this week. At the Elon Musk OpenAI trial, Sam denied Elon's claim that he tried to steal a charity and said Elon supported OpenAI becoming a for-profit company as long as Elon had total control. That sounds pretty accurate as far as in my experience. Let's go through some of the other highlights from Sam's testimony. Sam described, quote, a hair-raising moment when Elon suggested control of OpenAI should pass to his children after his death, that is hand raising. Sam said Elon's departure from OpenAI in 2018 was a morale boost for employees who did not like his hardcore management style. I was there during that time. That's exactly what they described. I have to say I heard from a lot of people he was like a big giant fucking baby. And he he does that with all his comes. He comes in, yells, kicks a can, and then leaves, and they can't wait till he leaves. When pressed on his open AI equity stake, Sam acknowledged that he holds a passive stake in the company through Y Combinator. I also want to mention that Kara Swisher came up in the trial this week. I was surprised not more. Well Microsoft's CEO . No, because I was texting a lot with all of that. I texted with them all during this time. The Microsoft Sacha Nadella was testifying. Elon's lawyers were questioning uh Nadella about the nature of Microsoft's relationship with OpenAI and Closing arguments are getting underway right now. So again, you're la any I don't think there's any more last minute surprises. Elam was not supposed to leave the country, by the way, according to the judge, but he did anyway. Um he was supposed to be, you know, on call essentially, but he doesn't care. Um any last minute surprises, anything? It seems like Aaron Powell I don't have any additional color here. Again, I think this is grievance cosplaying a legal argument. So it's the j so this is a traditional jury trial and the jury decides this. It's a jury decision and then the judge will decide remedies. So it c you know, he she if he lose if if Musk wins, they might say, Well, we're leaving it as it is and going with the California thing and they can pay him money or whatever. We're not gonna get rid of the CEO . That's one of the things he's asked for. I I think he can't possi I think this jury can't possibly sign with him. I mean ultimately I don't think they proved anything and it's a sort of he said he said kind of thing and Elon's the most loathsome of the pair, right? By far, by country miles. So I think Elon's made a spectacle of himself. If he wins, it would be something else. Like I'll tell you that. But I can't imagine the jury thinks this guy got the got a short end of the stick or, that he's stupid and didn't know what was happening to him. I think that's really he's sort of played this I'm a genius. Well, if you're a genius, how did this happen kind of thing? You're not a dupe. And so um so I think they probably think he's lying. And there's enough there's enough evidence that he is. Um or or just as you said, grievance theater. In any case, I have a feeling it's gonna be quick, but we'll see. It would be a real shocker if he won. Um and the latest inflation numbers are out and the news is not good. Consumer prices rose three point eight percent last month, the biggest increase in three years. Energy costs obviously current accounted for more than forty percent of the monthly increase, with gas prices up twenty eight percent, grocery prices, rent, and airfares also climbed sharply. President Trump, however, does not appear to be overly concerned. Let's listen to how he answered a quarter's question as he left the White House for his China trip. with Iran, Mr. President, to what extent are American financial situations motivating you to make it deal ? Not even a little bit. It the only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about Americans financial situation and I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing. We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all. That's the only thing that motivated Oh wow. That was that was some quote. That was like an ad. Like they just he cut an ad for them. It was that was astonishing, I have to say. I mean it's what I it's what I think he thinks. And this nuclear weapon thing, we're less safe now than we were doing the Obama days when we had most of the enriched uranium in a deal and the Strait of Hermuz was open. So any thoughts about what he's doing here? Why? Or he's just just an old addled man who just says whatever's on his mind? I don't know. Yeah, so look with this administration, so the the quote unquote objectives of regime change. Oh wait, no no nuclear weapons. Oh wait, unconditional surrender. I mean there there really isn't it's so back and forth and you know erratic that it's difficult for him to outline or be taken seriously. Having said that , I do believe that loosely speaking, the way what he said there is how presidents should approach wars. Wars are more than gas prices. Wars involve killing people and putting our own men and women at risk. And I think and he's not the guy to do this, but I do think the President should be willing to have an adult conversation with the American people and to say that the reason we have decided to put our own men and women in harm's way and commit this type of treasure and talent and potentially kill many of their citizens, is because we think it's worth it. And this is why we think it's worth it. And quite frankly, we don't go to war unless we, as your leaders, have decided that the American public are going to have to sacrifice. George Bush told us we could go to war and cut taxes, and Americans believed him . So I think an adult conversation with the American public around we have consulted with Congress, we've consulted with our allies, and we believe whatever the objectives are are worth some sacrifice. I think that is the right thing for a president to say . But this requires an adult conversation, more leadership, more gravitas, and clear objectives, and none of those things are , you know, evident with this president . But again, I think the president should be the person to say to the American public, I'm not going to take you to war unless I think it's worth it, and also unless I am willing to ask you to sacrifice. Where it's just a disaster just a big fucking mess, the same his this casinos and you know, everything he touches turns to this in some way. Just even the even the New York Times story about the reflecting pool, what a mess. He gave it to some group of people who can't fix it. There's already leaks already. It's being painted a color that's not gonna let it reflect. It's gonna be the non-reflecting pool. Everything he does is shoddy and uh haphazard and unplanned and with a huge whiff stink of corruption attached to it. And you know, and then telling them I don't really care about you is really, I think, disastrous. It's why his numbers are going down, is nobody believes him about anything that he says, except that he doesn't care about you. And I think that's a I I agree a president should say things honestly, but I don't think this is honest. I think this is just he could give a fuck is what he's saying to you and doesn't have any plan except for does Aaron Powell Well there's the perception and there's the reality. And I think the I think the perception after kind of eight or ten very bad weeks for the president, I think he's actually had a good couple weeks. I do think he looks presidential with Xi, although nothing got accomplished other than some saber rattling from Xi, um the Virginia I think Virginia's a big deal, the Supreme Court rejecting the attempt to redistrict. I think he's had actually a decent couple of things. I think the Supreme Court is going to give it to Virginia because it gave it to everybody else. And I think it's going to turn it on. It's going to the Supreme Court. That decision is going the Supreme Court has to say. Yes, I think it'll be allowed. And because these they've allowed it everywhere else. It's very hard not to allow it if they've allowed it everywhere else. And they re-tex this. As we said last week, he can do whatever he wants cheating, but polling doesn't lie. And polling is showing y he can't outrun the polling no matter how many times he cheats. I think he has had a bad couple of weeks actually. And he looks older and more addled than ever. I just I think that this was a typical he's just saying whatever's on his brain. He wasn't doing it to be, you know, tough with the American he didn't with care. I don't care what anybody's. Like I don't think about anyone's financial sit American's financial situation. I don't think about anybody. That's ridiculous. And he you know, we were safer before and we're less safe now. When's the last time you think he had a good two weeks, Cara? Uh when he won. Okay. When he won. I don't think it's this is I think this has been a I thought part of his first term, some of the stuff was okay. Uh it's been seventy eight weeks of count ing. No, I do think no, I think when he won. I think when he won and he had a real opportunity. Yeah. I think it's been like a series of like the one forgets the immigration disasters, the shooting of U.S. citizens, the um all the stupid people he's hired, the drunken cash patel, the lunacy of RFK. I don't think there's any well, we shouldn't have dyes in our food. Yes. Sounds good. Like I don't know what to say. I think it's a very small little winds. And um and I think the stock market's done well, but I don't think it's I think it's detached from everyone else's uh experience. Um and you know, billionaires have had a good time, that's for sure. Uh tech billionaires. Um but i this rise of inflation to me is the only thing that matters at this moment for most people. Aaron Powell What people miss, we're very focused on unemployment, and we think that unemployment causes unrest. It's actually not unemployment that causes the greatest levels of unrest. It's um what really upsets people and moves them to political action and sometimes even some form of revolution, which I think we're already in, is not people who aren't working, it's people who are working and yet still hungry. And that's what's going on here. The unemployment rate is four and a half percent. That's not what ails America. What ails America is that people have two jobs and can't afford health care So when and when now we have inflation or prices outpacing wages, that just translates to the following, the quality of your life goes down. And and the problem is America, and I lay a lot of this, Trump doesn't have the IQ or the integrity or the honesty to do this or the confidence around him. But I would also argue that America isn't ready for an adult conversation, because if you're going to be serious about inflation, it's very long-term difficult things. It's there's a relationship between essentially the economy breaks into three buckets. There's labor, that is the earners, there's shareholders, the owners, and then there's consumers. And because of a lack of antitrust, because of tax policy, we have decided to massively transfer power and economic well-being from consumers and earners or laborers to shareholders. And everything we do , every tax policy, keeping minimum wage low, uh, riding off all cap ex, subsidizing certain industries, everything is about how do we consistently take money from earners who minimum wage was 725 15 years ago, it's still 725, despite the fact that the NASDAQ has quadrupled and push more and more money into shareholders. And also the most boring thing that no one wants to talk about is that when you go from twelve chicken companies to three, when you go when you let pharmaceuticals consolidate, when you let health systems consolidate, when you let healthcare verticalize, when you let one company control 90% of search, 50% of e-commerce, 78% of social media, they will extract greater and greater rents from consumers and earners and transfer it to owners. It requires antitrust. It requires really interesting or more severe, quite frankly, entitlement policy where we reduce our entitlements. You're going to have to reduce the military budget. You're going to have to increase taxes, 40% AMT across corporations and millionaires, and then slowly but surely create more competition, lower rents on consumers, and a transfer of capital back from the owners to the earners. But the American public doesn't have a political election cycle that that creates a serious conversation around these things. No, I get that. I get that. I'm talking about people feeling it, like at all levels. And you do you do when you when you go out. I mean I I was I I I know it sounds dumb, but I do d I do do m a man and I split the grocery shopping, but I went to get a quart of milk and I I was like, What? It was like six or seven dollars and I was like, Are you fucking kidding me? And it's not just looking at the gas pumps or there was something I was in a airport and there was a sandwich and they were like $14 . I'm like, what? Like it was, it was, you know, uh I I I I didn't get it. I was like, well that's a lot of money for a sandwich, like kind of thing. And so I don't begrudge them having to raise prices. It's that it was it's just I think people who are price resist like price insensitive are noticing it. You can't help if i unless you're just holed up in your house, you can't help but notice things have gotten a lot more expensive. But there's there's shock and there's a reduction in the quality of life, and then there are threats to your own personal safety. Correct. And those when you see Affordable Care Act subsidies go away, you have someone who's literally dependent upon diabetes medication for their life see their insurance bill go from $1 78 a month to seventeen hundred. And it's as if the government has said to them, we don't care that you're working hard. We've decided that you're going to die. And those are the I think those are the kind of what I would call you you're going to have I I think we have bad economic policy that results in inflation and a decline of prosperity. What is unacceptable is that someone is worried when someone starts rationing their prescription medication . That just should j that just can't that should not happen in America. Or cuts off, you know, there was a really upsetting story in the New York Times, a woman writing about her kid who died of cancer, but like they've cut cancer pediatric cancer things and so these you can't get in these studies 'cause they don't ex they suddenly disappear, these advanced studies and everything. 'Cause you know, he doesn't say we're not gonna help ch pediatric cancer anymore. What he says is we're cutting all over the place, so in essence that's what we're doing. Anyway, the rise of inflation comes as Kevin Warsh takes the reins as Fed chair. Warsh was narrowly confirmed by the Senate this week in a fifty-four to forty five vote. It's usually an unanimous , which is the where we are. Um he's certainly qualified. The question is most people don't think the rates are gonna be cut. And so juggling this inflation with Trump's demands to lower interest rates, most people think he will not be lowering interest rates at this moment given the inflation numbers are so high and there's no signs that they're going down. Just thought very quick thoughts on that? Aaron Powell We like to talk about we like to simplify things in the media that this guy's gonna come in and cut rates, but people don't want to actually pay attention to the mechanics of the Federal Reserve. And that is the Federal Open Market Committee is the one that decides whether to cut rates or not. So while the Fed chairman has the bully pulpit and sets the agenda, he's one of twelve he's one of eleven or twelve votes. Kevin Warsh, while uh you know a really disappointing testimony at a Senate confirm uh confirmation hearing. He's not stupid. And he doesn't want to go down in history as the guy that ignited an upward spiral of inflation. Yeah. So there's g there's not going to be a rate cut. And as a matter of fact, Cal ce says there's a 72% likelihood there's no rate cuts for the rest of the year. Because you still there these Fed gov ernors don't want to be known as the people that that created breadlines. Yep. And when you have when you come off a print of 3.8%, there's no fucking way. If someone if if Wars started making noises that we should cut rates, those guys would go on background to journalists saying, this guy's fucking insane and threatening a Weimar Republic like inflationary economy here. Trevor Burrus Yeah. I mean I think it's it's the deficit and everything else. Maybe they shouldn't consult Zoran Mamdami, who balanced the New York budget. Trevor Burrus What did he cut? I'm curious. I haven't been following. He's doing a rather good job with services. He opened the streets for um the soccer at the FIFA matches he in front of schools. He closed off streets so kids could play soccer, like learned to play soccer and brought in all these soccer players and stuff. like that He's very good at serv ices, this guy. I'm just saying. I think Trump's gotta focus in on providing services to citizens. That's what you're talking about. The idea of that people get something out of government and it's not to be kicked in the fucking teeth. And I think that's really the the difference between lots of cities and a lot of both Republican and um Democratic Sen governors and mayors who are providing people better services uh in a smarter way. Anyway, that's to me is the goal for everybody. Anyway, we're gonna go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about the biggest donors uh for the midterms . Support for the show comes from Clav io . There's only so many hours in a day. Clavio's two powerful AI agents can make sure your team spends them on big things. 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Level up with savory marinades Spices and rubs, and complete your cookout with a crowd-pleasing cherry pie and their balsamic chicken salad, available at the prepared foods counter. Get SummerSplash Savings Now at Whole Foods Market . Buzzwords like progressive and affordability are thrown around all the time in politics. But what do they actually mean? For me, being a progressive means at least two things. One, being willing to unite lots and lots of people, all of the folks that are getting screwed over against the powers that be that are making your life worse. And then second, being progressive is an essentially a hopeful enterprise. That you think I think that the world can be much better, that we don't have to settle for crumbs or settle for the status quo. And is there a difference between what it means to the election So money is essentially the root of everything. I don't care if you're gay, I don't care if you have all that. That's like secondary, third, like that doesn't, that's not a priority. That's this week on America actually. Let's dig in . Scott, we're back. The biggest donor for the 2026 midterms may or may not The VC firm and its co-founders, Mark Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, have already spent more than $1 15 million this election cycle, outspending both George Soros and Elon Musk. Uh much most of the money is spent on the right. It's Musk, Jeff Yass, and uh these two. Um Soros is is the is the opposite, but much smaller in comparison. A major chunk of that money is going towards pro-crypto and pro AI, super PACs. What a surprise. What's where their investments are. Trump and the GOP are also benefiting. Uh Andreessen Horowitz and his founders have together donated roughly twelve million dollars to Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., and a trust link to Mark Andreessen gave nearly nine hundred thousand dollars to the Republican National Committee in March. Um you know, not a surprise. I mean not that this guy has moved you know firmly. It's mostly Mark, but Ben is right along with him as always ' hecause's this little follow little follow puppy. Uh just typical. Just typical. I mean this is not a surprise. And then he tells nonsensical stories about how he be went right, none of which are true. Uh your thoughts? It's smart. Yeah. Uh it's wrong , but it's smart. It's the greatest ROI any firm can get right now. I think he's figured it out. This is pay for play. And by the way, uh Horowitz used to give a lot of money to when he thought Kamala was gonna give money to Kamla. He did. Mark used to be a big gore person as I recall a long time ago. He wasn't every people are like, Oh, he used to be democratic. I was like, mm, not if you if you spent any time with him, he was certainly wasn't. He certainly was he was Mark is one thing which is self-interested in the most extreme way you're ever gonna meet someone. He's very interested in the corporation. I agree. But I'm saying it's really quite it's really quite he doesn't even pretend. He's really the s most selfish person ever come . I mean never. It's about incentives. It's just i if the greatest ROI, if you're the CEO of a company or the head of a venture capital firm and the greatest ROI on any spending is not hiring more people, it's not investing in planned property and equipment. It's to give money to a president who will who will pass legislation or block legislation that takes the value of your portfolio companies up $10, $20, $30 billion dollars, that $115 million investment is the best money you can invest. Absolutely. I agree. Again, it it's the boring shit. Term limits on the Supreme Court, no gerrymandering , get rid of citizens united. Until we do those things, you're gonna have strong men or women or fascism from the far left or the far right. You're right. You're you're always gonna have it. And we're outraged at Andreessen Horowitz. Soros Okay . I bet Jensen Huang is about to bride a $300 million check to somebody. Who knows? interesting because uh look they they have shifted right but I I my point is Mark was never never liked anybody. Like that's all I'm saying. He never does. Never he likes himself and his things and that's it. I it's very I agree with you, it's the right corporate thing to do. I've never met someone who is so anti- people in my life. Like just has such disdain for humanity in a way that's really remarkable, actually. Just doesn't like anybody. I'm like, I don't want who knows what they're going to be next week and I don't want any like individual rich person left or right to be able to take advantage of this way. It seems unfair. Other people don't get a an audience with the president and they have an un unnecessary advantage based on money, and that's kind of gross in some ways. It should be gross. Elon Musk after the SpaceX IPO might be worth between $700 billion and a trillion dollars. If he takes one percent of his wealth or ten billion dollars with his command of technology, he can decide who the next president is. He can. That's what I mean. Is that what you want? Taxes are our Kevlar and our vaccine from power. We need to stop thinking about taxes as something that is inherently evil and slows down the economy. That's bad taxation. Taxation protects us from, I don't want to call them billionaires because I don't want demonize them. Taxes protect us from an unhealthy aggregation of power. Mm-hmm. So due to money. A hundred percent. Yeah. We shouldn't have any individual, I don't care if it's Soros . I don't care if it's unions. I don't care if it's Lorraine Powell Jobs, although I think she's a wonderful woman. And I'm not, this isn't a character assessment. You can't have an individual with this much power. And taxes are the only way, our only protection, our Kevlar against the aggregation of this type of power. And Citizens United. I gotta get rid of it. Speaking of which , all my friends have decided you become a lesbian because of piedate . Really? They were like what? Like they were like, huh? They weren't expecting that? No. I was not expecting that. Oh by the way, a lot of my friends are like get sending me messages like what the f I go issue by issue. I get it. I get it. Speaking of I get them getting more money besides Elon becoming a trilli If completed, the company's valuation would be two point five times what it was just three months ago and higher than OpenAI's valuation of eight hundred fifty two billion. Of course there's the overhang of that trial with open AI right now. Um it's a huge thing. Overinflated. Uh I don't know. I don't know. Uh look, uh we've never seen a company scale like that. Um so and we've also never seen Pepsi overtake Coke or or Avis overtake Hertz as quickly. We've never seen this type of of transition or pivot or reversal in fortun es. And also I still think OpenAI's valuation uh IPO is probably going to be a hit. So get this. In March of 2025, Anthropic's valuation was $61 billion. So it's up fifteenfold? It's up fifteenfold in the last year. Well, okay. It was nine billion in annual recurring revenue in December. Last month it was thirty billion. They think this month it's on track to reach 50 billion. For the first time, more businesses are using Anthropic than OpenAI, 35 percent versus 32. Anthropic's business adoption quadrupled over the past year while open AIs grew is basically flat. And so a board decision on this financing is expected later this month with the and they think the IPO might happen as early as October. Yeah. Calci is saying it's a 70% chance it goes public this year. Um and then there's also a 60% chance that they have the best AI model at the end of the year. I don't know what that means. Like I don't this company is it it's just absolutely firing on all cylinders. Having said that, my thesis is that go long GLP1 and short AI because I don't think I think it's impossible to maintain a lead in AI with AI. And that is, if you look at the technical specifications , it's moving more towards parity than differentiation. And I think it's going to be difficult for any one company to maintain a technical lead here. And that that will drive down margins. And then when these open weight AIs, when she starts engaging in AI dumping, which is what I would do if I were him, I think it's going to drive down their margins. And the good news is I think similar to vaccines or PCs or jet transportation, the winners will be us, uh not these companies. Trevor Burrus There'll be one or two companies that will dominate. Probably Onthropic is one of them at this point. Interestingly, probably Google is the other. Aaron Powell I don't Yeah, it'll be uh it'll be really interesting, but when you look we have become used to any innovation resulting in a small number of companies capturing trillions of dollars in shareholder value. Again, my thesis is that AI might be more like jet transportation vaccines and PCs and that no one company is able to sequester shareholder value? Aaron Ross Powell, I get your point. So it would be funny if Apple spent nothing and ends up benefiting the most, which is That's sweet. Uh just the last thing, Google speaking of Google is in talks with SpaceX for a rocket launch deal to put orbital data centers in space. The deal is based on currently unproven technology that Elon said is the next frontier for his rocket company. I I kinda like this idea. It's totally unproven. And Google has a history of investing in wacky schemes. At one point they had uh um they were investing this sounds like a Sergei Brin thing happening here. They used to beef over some girl, but now they're getting along, I suppose. Anyway, this is something. Google has done this. They had wind, they had wind up in wind kites at one point. They were gonna do a chairlip in San Francisco. Cisco, they had a uh a a ship uh an energy ship parked off the uh the city in San Francisco. This is nothing this is feels smells like Sergey Brin to me. And so he would try anything and this would seem cool to him. So sure why not, not? Why invest in it? What's the difference? If it works, it works. If it doesn't, it doesn't. I think these guys they want to put chips down and options on anything they don't have insight into so they can get investor updates, have a chance to work with them . It's smart. Everything is so interconnected. Those graphs that look like , you know, the God's eye. Remember those in the 70s where everyone is invested in everybody else and everybody's suing everybody else. Yeah, just like Anthropic is doing a deal with Musk. Not a s everyone was like, How dare you Dario? I'm like, Are you kidding? Of course he did. Of course they do. They don't they like beef and then they mug. It's like the mob. Anyway, one more quick break, we'll be back for predic tions . At Uber, every single driver is required to pass a thorough background check before they can start driving. That means any prospective driver goes through a multi-step screening process, checking for any impaired driving or criminal offenses. But the checks don't stop there. Every year, every Uber driver is background checked again, so the person picking you up today meets the same standards as the day they started. Hey, how's it going? Yeah. Good. Thanks. Annual driver screenings from Uber. One more way Uber is putting safety at every turn. Learn more at Uber.com slash safety. I didn't think the pain from the shingles rash would affec simtsple everyday tasks like bathing, getting dressed, or even walking around. I was wrong. Though not everyone at risk will develop it, 99% of people over the age of 50 already have the virus that causes shingles, and it could reactivate I developed it and the blistering rash lasted for weeks. Don't learn the hard way, like I did. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. Complex and unprecedented, the Spanish authorities are calling it. Antes del desembarco, asymptomaticas. Passengers who'd been stuck aboard the Hanta or maybe Hantavirus-stricken Dutch cruise ship disembarked in the Canary Islands this weekend, prompting the highest-stakes game of where are they now since maybe COVID? Some of the evacuees, American and French, have since tested positive for the virus, and yet public health officials seem remarkably calm. We do have one individual who was uh taken to the biocontainment unit early, early this morning, and we uh assessed that individual. Um, they are doing well. Possibly because this is not the one to freak out over. 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