Predictions and Future Outlook

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Built with a long lasting battery so you're not scrambling for an outlet and built in intelligence that makes updates around your schedule, not in the middle of it. Find technology built for the way you work at Dell .co UK forward slash delpcs built for you From the Goldman Sachs trading floor, in ten minutes or less , investors and analysts share timely analysis on the week's market activity . The markets podcast from Goldman Sachs, listen now . Oh my god, you're so difficult today. So fucking bossy. Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast network, I'm Carol S chischer and I'm Scott Galloway. We're not going to talk about the Nicks because we've just gotten an argument about it. I think it's amazing. Stop shit posting the Nicks. It's super exciting. No, no What are you wearing? Explain what you're wearing a world. World Cup is also very exciting and I'm very excited. Heart in your wee That's right. Scotland, top of the table in their flight Haiti. Haiti. Yeah. And they're playing Morocco tomorrow, which is a fairly serious . Do you know that I know you're excited to talk about team Scotland ? They haven't appeared in the World Cup since nineteen ninety eight. They've been in the World Cup eight or twelve times and never managed to get it out of the group stage, which is no one else has unfortunately had that. They have McTomen this time. They have a really strong midfield. I'm just super excited about team style and yeah, speaking of bringing the world together, New York is having its tick or take parade for the next, which I'm very going? No, look, I'm not a sportsman, Scott, unlike you. I'm not. I don't go parades. I don't like large gatherings. I take it. It's through Manhattan. It's through the Wall Street thing and they're going to like throw the ticker tape st uff. Someone's put a picture up. He was in a hotel room I guess it was a guy and at five in the morning the noise was like loud. Like people are like getting ready to go. I heard New York is literally electric right now . Yes, I was just this week it was great. I mean , but more importantly, this is a true story. Boston bars have run out of beer. Some Scottish pants. Oh, really? They've literally run out of beer. Boston. I know they're playing Boston in. Anyway, it's very exciting all these sporting events. I love this. I like basketball best of all if I had to watch something . But what's really nice is to see all these gatherings and that's my favorite the gatherings are gonna come back. Yeah and also people seem to there's not a lot of fighting. It doesn't seem like people are jolly . Like all these pictures this morning from New York, they're like jolly and all the World Cup people like is it the Norwegians that keep rowing everywhere, they go up the escalators . And then they threw. Then they threw the Japanese fan in the air. Yeah. It really , it really does bring the world. But the Japanese fans bring these blue bags and then they clean up worrying up. I just like the whole thing. I like all the group activities and I think it's cute. It's adorable. You know, the Scottish clean up, it's putting all their empty bottles in a corner . Anyway, are you so can Scottish have any chance since you're called Scot t? It's the strongest team we've fielded in a while . I think that and they did win their first game, which means that the chances of getting to the next stage realistically , realistically we probably don't go that far, but there's always a dark horse that makes it to the quarter finals, whether Morocco is considered a dark horse. No . Russia did really well at one point. I mean, I'm Pulleno. I think it's really exciting. It's more likely that in terms of the UK that England represents us , but this is the strongest Scottish team in a while. And they had a fantastic opening game last night. I had a lot of stuff on the social media. Erik Dean is probably one of the three best players in the world right now . The disappointments were Spain, which drew and Portugal which drew, which are both supposed to be amazing contenders. And also the U. S. team is is the strongest it's been in a long time and they had a fantastic opening. That's what I heard. I feel like we should like dominate. Why don't we dominate? We have such that's such an American thing to say. No, but I would think all the money that's been put into soccer, all the attention, it just seems like we never make it in a way. I guess it's not really as popular as football and basketball here, but it's a group of people who just don't play together that often . This could be their year though. Player by player Pullusich, I mean, they have some amazing . They have some amazing talents. But well I'm excited and I'm excited for you to go to a game. You should go. It's a very we're going to a bunch of games. Yeah, that's great. I'm excited. Plus, it's really inexpensive. It's such a good deal I make a decent living and I'm blanching . I know. Well, whenever I see they have a lot of stuff on social media, like of the prices, like the lowest pr ice is eleven thousand dollars. And I was like, what? Like it's crazy, maybe not that much, but it's like , as I said, it's easier to go to Mexico or Canada to watch these things. Oh, I have some I inv haveit anation for you. Okay. Leslie Stahl wants to have dinner. Emily Rodowski? No, she wrote that piece, though, I can't believe you didn't comment upon . Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The one where she's breastfeeding? Yes, exactly that one. I'm here for it. I'm here for it. And by the way, I definitely read the article. I didn't just look at the picture. I definitely read the article. Okay, all right. Okay. By the way, did she ask the bell me? No, no, never. No, she's playing that game that, hard to get get game. I it. Anyway, Leslie Stull. I had practiced with her in New York and we had a lovely time . And as a woman, she really is. We had a good talk. We had a good talk about what's happening. You and Leslie St,ah Il'm trying to come up with . Is that like the Cagmy and Lacey A reunion? What is that? Like what offensive jokes do I make about? Oh I don't. Leslie Stall will take your skid off. No, I'm scared of she's very good. Well, she wants to have dinner with us. I do not like to be around other people. You know this. You're supposed to clear out these invitations for me. No, Leslie Stall is worth it. Trust me. All right. I'm sure she's super impressive and she will find me she will like anyone you introduce me to, they find out I'm not nearly as interesting as they think I am. So let's just save everyone disappointment and social anxiety. Don't say no to Leslie Still. You're doing it. I'm going to say we're meeting and then I'm going to bring her and that's how it's gonna go. Why are you hanging out with Leslie Stall? Is this like journalist mafia thing where you talk about how old white people don't get it when they buy their companies? No, she's came to Code for years. She came to Code for years. You don't understand the amount of people I know and I think I do. I think I do. We're friends. We're friends. I would say we were friends. And so just just we got together. You know, we wanted just got together. We did talk about things. You and an icon of journalism. Yeah, we like I talked about. A lot of the journalist people, like, you know, you go for drinks with them and stuff. Like you do that all the time. Anyway, she wants to know what people who drink. That's it. That's my criteria. Do you drink? I don't know. I don't know. She'd throw some back. She looks like she could throw some back. Yeah . Anyway, she really is a big fan of inexplicably . And obviously, oh, I got some other intel but wasn't from Leslie Stahl , you were approached . You were approached just I'm getting more info. I'm not going to tell everyone what that's about, but indeed I got more confirmation on that topic. You mean CBS long that I approached them about ? Yes, someone who knows who but I need to be fair, though, I thought a lot about this because it upset me. It was very immature of me to try and get cl by talking about professional outreach just to make myself look important. That was immature never to do. And I regret it. Okay. But it was just it was immature of me. I just shouldn't have bragged about someone reaching out to me.. Oh, I guess It's like, okay, that's a great way to show gratitude to someone coming to you with an opportunity is to brag about it. Oh my God anyways. All right, God, you proud. What is going on with me? What is going on with me? What is going on? I need to hang out with Les lie Staly. You do. All right. Anyway, Leslie's lovely. Hi Leslie. Does she mentor me ? Oh, I doubt it. I need someone . I've been trying for years to mention someone. No, I need someone more affectionate and loving than you. She's not Leslie's Paul is not your choice. I need it. It's like that, do you know who Ruthie Rogers? She owns the River Cafe . Oh, I've heard of her sure.. Yeah She's an older woman and she reached out to nowhere to say hi and I was so pissed off because it ends up at the River Cafe. It's like in fucking Birmingham, London it's like a daily hours. It's far out yeah, it' forsgetting I go down there. I have been there. I go down there and I'm all pissed off and this little woman fairly advanced age comes rolling out and I'm like, What the fuck? Why am I not with Emily Rodakowski was my first thought? And then I'm like, what am I doing here? Why did I agree to this? And within ten minutes she was holding my hand above the table like talking to me about my childhood. There's something about her. You just I try' toll find you a nice lady like that, but we haven't eaten. A bunch of tough lady fans Oh, can I do one call out? Katie Kirk has had a grandchild. Oh, I saw that. I saw that . That was nice. G forood her.. That's very C nongriceatulations , Katie. Before we get into it today, a reminder to check out our YouTube channel. Be sure to like the videos and subscribe. We're into the YouTube situation. And we're also in Roku. We're a lot of places. Yes, Roku, swerve, you just type in, I don't know how you get there though. We're with on the Swerve channel or whatever it is. It's the ProvC channel. Okay . I love that. I love the pivots on the ProfG channel. We'll just ignore that for a second. All right, well that's fine. People can stream us live. Oh wait, stream us. Okay, we're very promiscuous, but go to YouTube. We've got a lot to get to. So let's dig in first , Scott, the Reflecting Pool. I wanted to ignore this, but it's crazy. The paint's coming off today. This fourteen million dollar renovation. They put this American flag blue on it and they paid Trump insisted on it. When there's other problems with that thing, it's for years and years, you know, like all fountains, all pools have problems . And this is a big freaking pool , but it's usually just the stone color. And he had painted it this color and it's turned algae green. There's algae everywhere . Now the paint is coming off. There were pictures this morning. The interior department says it was a residual algae from the supply lines that were sitting there while the pool is being renovated. Most people say this is nonsense . All these pool people are weighing in, which I'm enjoying very much . They're deploying quote high tech nanob la ozone technology to combat this. Except workers were seen pouring bottles of hydrogen peroxide into the pool earlier this week by hand . Some experts say the pool's new color has worsened the preexisting issues. Darker blue absorbs sunlight, increasing water temperature, making the pool ripe for algae . Apparently there's phosphates in it. It's like it's ridiculous and what a fucking mess up because they picked the wrong people to do this. They shouldn't have painted it. It's very much Trump's sort of like lack of transparency, overly expensive and badly done. But I want to talk about bad messaging because this is the Reflecting Pool, which is ahead of the two hundred and fifty celebration. That's the center along with the Washington Monument, the Lincoln Memorial. Those are symbolically beautiful and actually much visited during the fourth of July and it's gonna look like shit. Talk about it from a brand is there a branding perspective because it's getting a lot of traction and usually I think these things are silly, but this one I'm like, yeah, this really he fucked this up like royally in a way that seems ridiculous. Yeah, look, the analogy here of the symbolism is pretty strong. I would argue that the reflecting pool is actually doing its job and reflecting what's going on five hundred feet away. By the way, I stared into a reflecting pool for too long and it made me think I don't I feel like it's been staring the reflecting pool has been staring at Congress for several hundred years and it's just finally given up in a rent full mosque. Right. I don't know. What do you think? I think symbolically it's for a lot of people. Most kids have gone to the reflecting Americans when they go on trips to Washington , if you get to go on a trip to Washington as many people do. It's just like everything about it is like can you do anything that doesn't suck ? Like it's sort of even though it's just the pool , it's the easiest thing to fix in all the many things that are hard in this country. And to fuck it up this royalty is really quite something, I think. You know, it does it's a messaging of sort of this old man who is adult who over spends our money. It's all tax money and we're going to have to pay for whether it's cleaning up the East Wing, whether these physical things. And you had talked about this, the destruction of the East Wing or what he did at the Kennedy Center with the name coming down. It's just it's all like destruction. We're going to have to clean up after this , you know, this elderly toddler essentially. Yeah, I was asked I was on a podcast yesterday and they asked me what I thought about reflecting pool in DC turning green and I said, no notes. I mean the metaphor or the analogy, whatever, it's just perfect, but there are only two people in my life that make me laugh. Occasionally you make me laugh. You have a very infectious laugh . But that's actually, you know what? We were arguing at the beginning of the podcast and one of our producers Taylor said something nice about each other. And I should have said, you have a great sense of humor. Your laugh is infectious. I think thank you. It definitely softens you up. Yeah . Here I'll do one. I like that you cry. Someone asked me if your crying was genuine, and I said, it is, and it's very moving . Go ahead. Yeah, no , it's not an act. I really have someone thought it was but they said you cried somewhere at an event and forget who was it? It wasn't Leslie Stall It was someone No, no, no, no. Another secret meeting Crydin . That's like, I would be I'd put it at one and five. If I talk about my mom, young men killing themselves or my boys , that's it. I'm done. Yeah. I think you talked about your mom and I said, No, it was someone and they asked if it was a real and I said, It really is. He's really very heartfelt. Anyway Anyways, so back to algae. So the funn iest people . There's two people in the world that make me like laugh out loud. One is David Frey, my friend he's a cosmetic dentist who's one of the strangest funniest people in the world and he'll just call me and start talking about his day and it cracks me up. And my friend Lee Lotus, who's Godfathered to my children, anyway hilarious. And I mean we used to take trips together. Like before he found his part ner and before I had a girlfriend, we used to go on trips together . Like we would drive up the coast together, we did all these trips together. And we decided he was like, We should go to Chicago. And so we went to Chicago. And it was during St. Patrick's Day and they die the river How green? Green. And he looked at me He goes to me, he goes, you'd think they'd be able to die it clear . And we just sat there . I just sat there and laughed for like that's funny. Anyway, we'll get him down to the fucking reflecting ball because it really is literally the funniest guy in the world. And he 's such a good friend speaking of DC. When my sister was a senior in college at the University of Florida, he's like, You're the big brother. You need to take her to DC or a nation's capital. And so we went to the nation's capital and we like stormed into speaker Pelosi or Representative of that time Pelosi's office and started asking questions about the residua park and thinking, this will get your sister excited about our government and politics. And you know what? She did she did get excited. And she went to an intern for some far right fucking crazy. Oh, what? I'm And like , That's not why I brought you here . Well, it kind of is. And she's been kind of a I'll give her this immoderate Republican ever since and it's a since she's not no, she's not crazy. No, but she is she is kind of a you know , she wears pearls and rash. She's like a modern. You taught her about democracy. Anyway, algae, bad messaging, because it just sort of piles on with the Kennedy Center thing, this thing, and now , of course, the biggest one , Donald Trump is defending his deal to end the war in Iran, saying critics who think he hasn't been tough enough or jealous, bad or people or stupid. His comments come after he signed the memorandum of understand ing or MOU at the Palace of Versailles on Wednesday, which was the most epic troll by Macron I've ever seen. He lured them there with gold and it's the place of course where the Germans signed the World One acc ord. So let's talk about the treaty of verses. Let's talk about some of the terms of this agreement. The Strait of Hermuse will open immediately and Iran will be allowed to sell its oil freely. Also they'll get some sort of fees which didn't exist before. Every it's exactly the Obama deal but worse essentially. I mean, Obama got a lot more stuff and paid a lot less and nobody died. And there wasn't the impact on the economy globally and in the United States. The U. will S. end sanctions on Iran and unfreeze assets. The three hundred billion dollars fund will be established to help rebuild Iran, though Trump says the US will not contribute to it. Iran agrees to not procure or develop a nuclear weapon , but before the Obama agreement was much more stringent . The deal is said to be officially signed on Friday, is not a final agreement. It doesn't seem much has been agreed at all. The two sides have sixty days to negotiate a longer term deal, either side can walk away . The Republicans are not liking it, and those who are trying to defend it are pretzeling themselves. You know, he's lost the support of all manner of people, including Ben Shapiro Tucker Carlson, of course , lots of Republicans, Bill Bill Cassidy and many others are like, this is a piece of shit deal. They're saying out Senator Kennedy , you know, D theimmeros don't have to say anything . And even Fox News is attacking him. Thoughts on the situation? Because Ben someone, Donnie Deutsche said, you know, I was for this, you know, this attack on Iran, but now this is like bullshit. He reminded me of you the way he talked about it, but any thoughts? Yeah, I've got to own it. I thought there was real legitimate rationale for military action . There's just no doubt about it. You've got to Hillary Clinton talked about the dominion of failure and I find this fascinating. Isn't that great? Well, explain that for the people the dominion of failure. Well, just to relate to it on an individual level, have you ever been at a you're in a conversation with family or dinner . And you say something and someone disagrees and you double down and then you find yourself two months later defending and going deeper into a position that you've probably realized was wrong , but you've doubled down and you keep going further and further. And unfortunately, the American public rewards that doubling down as opposed to being contemplative and recognizing that a step back from the wrong direction is a step in the right direction . And we basically told our politicians, never admit you're wrong, double down , never acknowledge that things have not worked out the way we'd hoped, and we need to change course. And just to go to the quote unquote memo of understanding, let's start with the term memo of understanding. Memo of understanding is a business term and I have written and received dozens of memos of understanding, and this is what they are. If you're thinking usually in a business context about acquiring a firm or doing a large deal , you outline general parameters. Okay, this is what specifics. Correct. Not well, you identify ranges. This is what you do. This is what we do. We're interested in acquiring you . And this is kind of a valuation range, subject to the following conditions. These are the people who would stick around. You kind of outline to basically say, we need to at least agree on some bas ics before we get serious and start conducting diligence and papering a deal. And it means nothing I would bet that somewhere between a third and maybe fifty percent of memos of understanding consummated in a legally enforceable deal . And that's the same thing here. This is obvious . They said Trump wanted an agreement . And they said, we'll give you a memo of understand ing because we know you're on your way out. This will not be enforceable. I don't even I don't even think we can get into a conversation around how terrible this deal is, including the fact that it doesn't include random inspections. It's gone from one and a half billion in their JCPOA to three hundred billion and that sounds like opportunity for Witcoff and Kushner . The fact that they've essentially have not have an opening to start charging tolls again. This isn't an equivalent deal. This is a much worse deal, but here's the thing. It's not even a deal, Cara. Yeah. It's a memo of I don't know if you heard Getchy. But this morning it was announced that Mexico has presented the US with a memo of understanding and they're taking back Phoenix . I mean, this is so fun this is here is the reality. I like Phoenix. We' are goinghead, s orry . We withdrew from a deal , fought a stupid war, or apparently a stupid war with thirteen people dead, hundreds injured, thousands of Iranians killed, alien ated allies. Let's not forget those schoolgirls that got accidentally alienated allies weakened our relationship price Gulf nations provided accidentally Iran with insight into a weapon more powerful than a nuclear arm, destabilized the global economy such that we could get a much worse deal . In terms of American politics , what this means is the following, JD Vance will not be president. Have you noticed already? Oh no, Trump keeps trying to hang it around his neck. The president is throwing Vice President Vance under the bus. Now he' hes just's just his servant to go there and do basically he has sent the equivalent of a , I don't know, a reputational mob and noose for the latest vice president . He is hanging viceident Pres Vance . This is penciling. He's pencing him. The most conservative Republicans are saying this is a terrible deal , a terrible deal. Right. The comparison between the they put a comparative list between the Obama deal and this and you're like, what? We lost all this stuff. Like, what, why? And you know, he had the advantage when he just say bombed some of the areas, right? He had the What We're Watching You Kind of thing happening, which I think was strong. I agree with you. When the original bombing of those , even if they didn't take them out, they didn't completely and totally above it. I don't know why he had to say that. He could have just said, we set them back again. And we're going to keep doing that if they keep developing nuclear weapons . But that was good, and then he couldn't resist because of the EBITDA, as you said , the person on his shoulder is Jeffrey Epstein. And so he wanted to do something after Venezuela. He felt emboldened and did this. Like this is this is to me, I don't think I don't think you're right. He is hanging D Vance out to drive, but this is hanging on him. This doesn't come off. I agree. He will escape that . He doesn't escape it. He can't blame it on anybody. He looked he's in charge. Let me just tell you, he looked real old at the G seven, like they kept moving him around, and he was sort of wandering more than he usually wanders. But he was wandering. He looked sickly, he looked cankly. His hands looked like, suddenly, there's all these cuts on his hands . You know, Macron was wandering moving around like he was an elderly parent at an old folk's home, which I thought Macron did on purpose because he looked fantastic, right? He was fit and lively and stuff like that. But Macrone was looking like he was his friend, but made him look elderly sitting next to him, and I think he was. And then the Versailles thing, oh my God, did nobody on his team understand the symbolism and the marketing of that thing. And I know only I mean it's just he's so dumb. Like that's the whole thing. Like he just continues to bet. I think this will all hang on him. You seeing the polling is down and they think Georgia's going to be going to be all Democrat, which is unheard of. Texas is now absolutely in play . He's going to have the worst two years of his life after November, just the worst. I think it's going to go on and on and on. Macron led him around like an old man. It was really something to see. And I think, you know, what's really interesting is how much the polling is really declining, how much in danger he is of losing states like Georgia and Texas and Ohio, stuff that you wouldn't have thought before. And I think it has a lot to do. And I know it this is one thing. The algae is another, the Kennedy Center. It's all like this old man. Like I think we have to seriously talk about whether he had a stroke or not. And you know, we did this with Biden, and I think it's fully appropriate to discuss it at this point. We don't agree on the non important stuff. I think Trump looks remarkably robust for a guy of his age. I don't see degradation or I should say any change in his cognitive ability. In his cognitive ability at seventy six was exceptionally poor judgment from a narcissist who doesn't care about anything but himself and coming across is strong and that he is arguably verifiably a terrible business person . And I think he's the same person he was for eight years ago and that is someone with absolutely terrible judgment that diminishes our power soft and hard abroad. Let's talk specifically about the JCPOA . It required Iran. This is the deal that the Obama administration and Iran signed. It required Iran to reduce its enriched uranium stockpile by ninety eight percent, dismantle two thirds of its centrifuge's cap enrichment at three point seven percent and accept IAEA monitoring. The twenty twenty six MOU contains no nuclear constraints at all , just a pledge never to build a weapon. A pledge from the IRGC, oh that's worth a lot , which Iran already made when it signed the non proliferation treaty in nineteen seventy . The key here quite frankly is verification and inspection and let's compare the two. The JCPOA had IAEA inspectors , continuous monitoring and twenty four day access provisions. The MOU defers all of this to a sixty day negotiating window with no guarantees . Think of this in consumer We are paying more for less. The MOU comes with released assets plus a three hundred billion dollar reconstruction framework , exceeding the JCPOA's cost while delivering fewer nuclear concessions. This in two words is a fucking disaster for the American brand . And I got to be honest, I'm going to enjoy watching all these accolesit and well, they're not. And weirdos try to try to explain this one away. Well, they are there only a few are, but many more are being quite explained. Like you didn't have to hear a Democrat yesterday because of all the Republicans were saying it, right? They were like , I was like, I was listening to the television I was packing for this trip to France. And I'm like, oh, another Democrat and I looked and it was a Republican senator. It was like so vehement, right? It was so except for one who was trying to defend it, but it was very hard. Like you can see them. Fox News has been very tough for Top and of course Wall Street Journal is like strafing him , which is a Murdoch property. So I don't know. I feel like all of the and I'm going to disagree with you on his health. I think something happened and he could he still it very well could. Looks robust, but his physical demeanor and the way he wandered around the specialists he's seeing . Yeah, all the specialists and the way Macron, I felt like Macron knows exactly what's happening because he because he kept you it's how you move an elderly person you. If like as my mom, got less mobile , she was in that zone that Trump is in. And she was mobile and very robust. As you know, my mother never shuts up . But it was like, and then it started to crumble essentially. But I just want to briefly and you put out a great chart on this, but where we are , at the end of the JCPOA, when tore when he tore up the agreement , Iran had enriched uranium to three point seven percent . It is now sixty percent , just a short step away from weapons grade material . U. S. military leverage given away. This memo of understanding commits the U . S. to not increasing its regional forces with Washington or the U. S. withdrawing forces within thirty days of a final agreement. We typically that's not negotiable for us. One of our key advantages is we have these things called aircraft carriers that we can put anywhere in the world to deliver violence on an unprecedented level, which is an enormous advantage that we're giving up. The other thing that people aren't talking about or the press isn't talking about is that the JCPOA was multilateral . It was signed by the US, the E U, the UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia . Whereas this is bilateral . So if they walk away from this , it doesn't impair their ability to sell oil, do business with all these nations. Whereas the JCPOA was the entire Western world and China and Russia saying, You have to stick to this agreement. He can't clean fountains and he can't do wars. And then the thing he said at the Repress conference, go watch that press conference. Scott, you will have another thought about his mental health . And he goes, well, we'll just bomb them. And I'm like, what? Like that's your plan. Like we'll just bomb them if they don't keep up. It's just it's so embarrassing. And you know, the Republicans know it. And I think he's going to he's in for a world of hurt. And Epstein's roaring its way back, of course. The New York Times did a great piece. Very briefly, I want to say the Ukrainian bombings in Moscow . Wow, that has shifted rather significantly. Putin's the other one that's got to be on the ropes. I would imagine. As I said, I thought I'd heard from people that he was. I mean, just a couple thoughts. One, that is the most exciting, positive thing happening in the world right now. I agree . Is that the West has a huge victory, Europe deserves incredible credit for being steadfast, which is in their interest economically . And also the learning from both Iran and the war in Ukraine is the following . Our military budget should be cut in half, and it should be focused on one word asymmetric warfare metric warfare. These expensive platforms that risk too much where we can't, there's no way we're sending fifty B two s into a hostile area because America doesn't have the stomach or the money to live on High M orars Luzed Soldiers. Whereas if you build basically what are go carts or motorcycles with bombs on them and you send fifty out and forty eight get shot down, but two make it through this has totally changed the game of warfare . And how do we turn chicken salad into chicken salad fricacy or something even better is this is the opportunity and America needs this . This is how fucking stupid the administration is wa,it oh war,fare, is changing. Let's increase expensive platforms and the monetization of our military and defense by increasing our military budget by four hundred billion. We should be thinking about opportunities to take our military budget down to five hundred billion and making it more lethal and more deadly with asymmetric warfare. That is the learning here, and they aren't taking the learning. Yeah, they aren't. No, they aren't. Anyway, I think it's a disastrous week for Trump as you and a truly disastrous one. Anyway, an algae. Let's just say that again, algae. Okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break and we come back. We'll discuss SpaceX's busy first week as a public company. Support for this show comes from Quintz. It's really hard to get everything that you want when it comes to breathable quality clothes that elevate your fit. Quint comes pretty close to perfection. Quint's European linen pants and shorts are a perfect warm weather upgrade to add your rotation starting, at just thirty four dollars. Their tees are soft and easy to wear and their lightweight cotton sweaters are perfect for cooler summer nights. Everything is priced fifty to eighty percent less than what you'd find at similar brands, plus Quince works directly with ethical factories and cuts out the middlemen. 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This is advertiser content from Harvey AI. We have a choice over who we work with and who we don't, specifically who we allow to advertise and who we don't. And for those of you who watch my content, I am not an AI catastrophe. I'm an AI optimist. I think it's going to create more jobs than it destroys . And I think our job as professionals is to figure out how to leverage these tools. AI more than almost anything I do in terms of what I could point to for real economic leverage and savings is one hundred percent in the legal fields. Harvey is the AI designed specifically for legal work, trusted by leading law firms and enterprise legal teams. All right, so now I'm looking at their demo. It plugs into tools that lawyers already work with, Lexus, Nexus, Microsoft . And this is the key, and I do this internally with my LLMs . With permissions, it lets you look at the firm's own files and databases . So here it's answering a question, reads the complaint, pulls the relevant terms, checks the web, weighs the evidence and drafts a response, but it also can do this in a shared workspace between the firm and the client so they both have visibility into the work being done and can both add value to it. I think this space is clearly sort of hand in glove for AI , right? So there's no doubt about it. This, I think, is going to be super helpful not only for law firms themselves but internally for general counselors and companies . Harvey is AI tailored for law. You can learn more at harvey. AI DelPCs with Intel inside are built for the moments you plan , and the ones you don't. There are those all night study sessions. The moment you're working from a cafe and realize every outlet is taken. The times you're deep in your flow and can't be interrupted by an auto update. That's why we build tech that adapts to you. Built with a long lasting battery so you're not scrambling for an outlet and built in intelligent that makes updates around your schedule not in the middle of it. Find technology built for the way you work at Dell .co . UK forward slash delpcs built for you Scott, we're back. Let's go through a rundown of the latest SpaceX news. As we tape shares are down six point five percent to one hundred seventy nine dollars valuing the company at two point three five trillion , which is what it was when we last talked. Shares surged around fifty percent in the first days of trading, making SpaceX the fifth largest company by Market Cap surpassing Amazon. Tuesday was the first day that investors could buy SpaceX options contracts and about one point eight million contracts changed hands. And amidst all this SpaceX announced it will acquire AI coding startup. Cursor for sixty billion dollars in an all stap transaction. I thought this was rather smart. Cursor's annual sales recently hit four billion making it a reliable source of revenue. It also gets them up to speed in enterprise. It moves it takes the shitty product of Grock and makes it, you know, this is a smart move. This is a very typical Elon Move is to buy something to get ahead. And I thought that was smart. In another win for Musk, the DOJ told a Mississippi Federal Court that it should throw out a lawsuit against XAI saying it has the right to run dozens of gas burning turbines despite not having permits for them. I'm not sure this is a victory for us. I think this is going to come back to bite him. Before we get to our own thoughts, let's hear from our friend and founding partner of Puk, Bill Cohen. Hey K,aren Scott . So SpaceX, I mean, I think that Scott has been nailing this for, you know, weeks now, which is that it's one great business, Starlink, which is a fabulous business and kind of revolutionizing the world in many ways . And one glamorous business, the rocket business , and one lousy business , X and XAI that they crammed in there and won a stounding valuation with infinite multiples because only Starlink is really profitable . And it's just the latest example, frankly, of the Wall Street hype machine that, you know , is so so good at hyping up stocks that and companies that need to raise huge amounts of capital. I mean, you got to give Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley credit for , you know, raising eighty five billion dollars of equity and getting this thing launched at a huge valuation, two point five trillion exceeding Amazon . And it's been trading up, although for the last couple of days, it's been trading down. So maybe we've at a minor peak and maybe as usual , it'll be the retail investors that get left holding the bag here . And of course a bunch of lockups come off over the next couple of month s. Scott, how do you feel now? And I talk about the acquisition of Cursor . I think it's smart. I do. I think the thing in the data centers is a mistake on the government's part to do that because I think people are truly mad. But your thoughts? Look, the IPO is nothing short or remarkable . And the fact that it's gone up so much, I mean, it's off to touch today, but I think it's what is it up thirty or forty percent since it's initially priced . Buying buying , I mean kind of kind of the game now is for the first, whatever, a hundred years of the market , CEOs were compensated to underpromise and over deliver And the last thirty or forty years , or twenty years, at least , it's been over promise, get your stock up based on these incredible projections of the future, and then use that cheap capital to pull the future forward by investing at a rate no one else can match Amazon or Netflix using this inflated stock or acquire companies. So for example, with cursor, and Cursor's a really good company . And they're buying it, they're buying it at a multiple of fifteen times revenues. So when SpaceX is trading at one hundred thirty times revenues , it's accretive . So a sixty billion dollar acquisition, which is a lot of money, but that gives them a really strong company that a really strong AI coding tool that has twenty six percent share for a three and per acent half dilution of that crazy two and a half trillion dollar market cap. And it makes the Grock story go away. The Grock failure story go away. I mean when you are sitting on a company, a stock that's at one hundred thirty tim andes reven ues, you tell every investment bank and you tell your corporate debt people anything that makes sense, buy it. Right. Because would you give me a name? What should he buy? Oh, shit here, I don't know enough about the I'm going to shove Tesla in there as I said he would. Yeah, but that's not an acquisition. That's some thing. That's a doctor of the dwarfs so you can continue to sleep with Snow White . Look, I don't I think we're going to see a lot . I think the M and A space I think if you're any investment bank and says, I have this cool AI tool that would help shore up this component of XAI , they get their calls returned right now because the way to think of it is if you're looking for a house in San Francisco and it costs two million dollars and you're with and it's a lot of money and you're worth three million , it's worth you really think about it. If overnight you worth thirty million, you're like, honey, buy it. Right. Exactly. So everything in the world looks cheap to them right now because almost anything is technically accretive and adds to earnings because nothing out there is trading at one hundred and twenty times revenues. Yeah, like it could get perplexed. They could get perplexity. Yeah, that'd be an interesting one. Yeah, because they will paper over their problems with Grock, which are rather significant, which you may regulators won't get it through, but if they could, they should buy it, they could acquire Mistrel. I mean that's a good idea. That would not get past regulators, but what could they not buy right now? I mean, there's rocket science does Rocket Lab or whatever the fuck that company is, does that have any technology they could use? They are looking at everything right now. Yeah, they've got to. Yeah, there's some really interesting stuff. The thing is, he doesn't want to create sort of like a basket of nothing fits. It's got to be strategic, like in terms of what like so Cursor gets them enterprise business, it gets them highly talented people. It gets them a product people like that or people are using. You know, that's what they got to look at. They can't just buy anything because I think his big mistake with Grock was that he overstuffed it with geniuses and then it was sort of like a hot mess, essentially. And this is more his way, the way he bought Tesla from the creators, you know, of it. He didn't make Tesla. He bought it from their inventors. And he does that with a lot of stuff, and I think that's what he does best. He's a little Henry Ford like in a lot of ways. If you think about it versus an Edison, right? Everyone looks at him like as if he's an inventor, but he's not. He's a he's a he's a collector, right? A really good collector. He hasn't been an acquirer typically though. No, no, he tries to go vertical. He does, but he buys things that are he sees things that are promising and buys them. He doesn't found them in a lot of ways. Right. You know, so I think this is more his cursor. I thought, okay , maybe he's laid off the ketamine or something because that's a good idea, right? That kind of thing. And it's not it's just the right thing. It's sort of like if you put them in charge of their AI the way he put Gwynn Schopwell in charge of SpaceX , you really could do well. And he keeps he just wanders someone described, him he comes in , he kicks some cans and he leaves, and that's what they prefer, essentially . And so I think that's probably good to put it in the hands of better people than him at this particular thing. And that's a smart move. It is. You're right. He could buy anything. But the one thing I mean, everybody, every banker, the bankers taking Anthropic and Open AI out are looking at SpaceX and thinking, okay , that manufactured scarcity thing was really smart. How do we do it? I bet they're actually reducing the size of their offerings they go there 's a ton of people rushing through a small door of smaller float and increasing demand wow, did that work out well for those guys? And then those lockups come out right when they were going to go public. The SpaceX lockups come out in the fall in September, I think. A lot of them goes to I was ,ty for percent, something. There's a big flow. All sorts of things. If it trades above a certain amount for a certain number of days , there's soft lockups. If you bought the stock the big ones come in the fall, which is right when these people are going to go public, right? Presumably. Which it means a possible decline. Like that's the thing. That's when you see . Yeah, but there's got to be everyone has just thrown their numbers in the trash bin and said, I would love to be anthropolog goingically public to say , Oh my gosh, if you like this company at one hundred and twenty times revenues, we're growing we're not growing twenty four percent a year. We're growing four hundred percent a year and you can buy us at a low low price of forty times revenues. Right. I would love to be an IR for anthropic. The weird thing and I've been I've talked to a lot of companies about their AI efforts , what's going to be weird for open AI is what you're seeing a lot of in corporations right now is they're blaming the model. A lot of corporations right now are swapping out Chat GPT and Open AI for anthropic. And quite frankly, some of it is not open AI's fault . What it is is all these companies who are not seeing the return that was initially promised blaming it on the internet blaming the model. Yeah, they're blaming it. And swapping out open AI for the hotter brand right now, which is anthropic. So it's going to be very interesting to see the numbers that got leaked of open AI, whoa, whoa, they lose money. Wow. Yeah , they're they're burning a lot of capital. It's going to be very , very interesting to compare open AI and anthropics revenues. Now, open AI's, to be fair, open AI's losses were somewhat exaggerated by the conversion from nonprofit to for profit and compensation costs. But once somebody smart like Bill Cohen actually looks into it and goes apples to apples , what it'll be most interesting is to see how much momentum anthrop ic has gained and how much momentum open AI has lost because that kind of sets the tone for everything. But I'll tell you their valuations went up their first day valuations were up forty or fifty percent because of SpaceX. And even smaller guys , there's this really cool company out of Italy called Bending Spoons . It's a private equity company that's about to come public . And they did a roll up of like Vimyo and AOL and Event Bright . Basically they found a bunch of orphans . We transfer Evernotes , event bright , meet up . All these companies were sort of left for dead or and they've streamlined the back end, which is what private equity does and they're taking them pub lic. I love this company. I think it's a really smart idea. Oh my god, I have to look at that. They probably got them at really good prices and these are companies that needed scale. Like how they cleaned up Yahoo, right? Exactly. And but every banker and every company going public right now because of space , I mean, there's an argument that they get hurt because there's not enough capital out there, but I'd go the other way I would say looks cheap now in the context of SpaceX. Well, see where it goes, but I think Bill is right, the retail investors will be left holding the bag when it comes to pass that a few earnings in. All right, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about Snap's new smart glasses. This is a treat for Scott, I know. Support for the show comes from teleport . Here's a finding that should stop every tech leader cold. Organizations most confident in their AI deployments have more than twice the security incident rate of those that aren't seventy two percent versus thirty three percent. That's from Teleport's twenty twenty six infrastructure identity survey of more than two hundred infrastructure security leaders. A data breach isn't just a costly endeavor, it can damage trust. The most frequent causes of data breaches are human error and compromise credentials. But in the AI era, agents that are granted broad privileges dramatically increased risk. Solution services like Teleport, an AI infrastructure identity company provide an identity and access platform that is purpose built for modern, highly automated environments, which are now deploying agents into production. Teleport establishes a unified identity layer for humans, machines, and agents that is cryptographically backed that enables agents to be controlled and contained with the same rigor that you apply to other actors in your infrastructure . Because in a new era of AI, the problem isn't agents, it's the privileges we're giving them. Download the free report at gooteleport dot com slash pivot . 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But sometimes the catch is that there is no catch, like Mint Mobile offering premium wireless for just fifteen dollars a month. It's just a good deal, plain and simple. To get your new wireless plan for just fifteen bucks a month go to mint mobile dot com slash pivot that's mint mobile dot com slash pivot. Cut your wireless build fifteen bucks a month at mint mobile dot com slash pivot. That's it , there's no catch. Forty five dollars upfront payment required equivalent to fifteen dollars a month new customers on the first three month plan only speed slower above forty gigabytes on unlimited plan. Additional taxes, fees and restrictions applied seem mint mobile for details. Scott, we're back and there's a new wearable that I know you'll be rushing out to buy. Snap just announced its augmented reality smart glasses called specs. Evan Spiegel called it a way to bring computing into the world and make it more human, though the style wise wired notes, the glasses are chalky. I would think that's a perfect word actually. And at a price point of two thousand one hundred and ninety five , they're well above the cost of most meta rave bands which are a couple hundred . And then though it's still about a thousand cheaper than Apple's Vision Pro, which people think they're going to get rid of and replace with their glass version that'll compete with the Raybands, investors don't seem to impress napshores fell nearly ten percent on Tuesday after the glasses were unveiled. I mean I like I very much like Evan Spiegel, but that was bad him putting them on. I can't say anything else. It just he's a handsome man and it immediately rendered him unhandsome and they looked kind of ridiculous and pretending otherwise seems silly. And by the way, Meta's version of these glasses, which have more utility, and they have to be this big and chalky. The Raybans don't almost have no utility. They're just a few things , but the ones that have more utility like mapping and all kinds of things, like as if you have a cell phone in your hand or very heavy, no matter how you slice it. So your thoughts on the chonky glasses This is the first time in my life. I've ever seen an image of Evan Spiegel and thought, I'm cooler than Evan Spiegel. Yeah, she doesn't look cool. It looked I think okay, so two thousand two hundred dollars for four hours of battery life, bulky frames from a company that has never turned a profit. Let's go. I mean it's a terrible thing to say. I've never been a fan of Snap. I've always thought it was subscale. I think Evan is an innovator. I'm glad he's a billionaire. He seems like a lovely guy. He is a lovely guy. I've met him. Lovely guy. This is the beginning of the end of Snap is an independent company. This thing is dead on arrival. It makes the mixed mixed reality headset from Tim Cook look like a viable product. This is I mean, I don't know if you've heard, I'm not a big fan of these wearables and headsets. No, I am looking forward to seeing what Apple comes in with a lighter version. I am looking forward, but they're very chonky. Have you tried these on? I have, I've tried the specs and I'm not part of the in crowd, the cool crowd. This is very heavy. It's all headed to AirPods with AI and cameras built into them. I just and maybe there'll be some cool glasses. Signglasses , but here's the problem. Snap doesn't have the capital because what Mattican do is Medican better burn sixty billion dollars on a failed product and it's like a speed bump this product is overpriced , under engineered Snapid, whatever it is, six to eight billion dollars Markap, doesn't have the capital to compete in the hardware space. And you can't make those smaller. I mean, from what I understand, they got a lot packed in there. You know, even the Raybands are a little heavy , that I don't wear them because I find them like they're heavier than my glasses. And they have limited features, like limited limited features. And so it's like, take a picture, record something . I think one of the things recognition is important. I think like if you were blind or other things like who is that very helpful. That kind of stuff with limited features is great. But if you want anything really substantive , and actually when you put them on and look through them, it's cool because the room becomes like I saw one thing with the specs. This was many years ago actually . They brought it to my house and I tried them on and they were so heav y, they were ridiculous . But when you look through them, there was the planets in front of you and you could walk through the planets and it was beautiful. Like I have to say, that was cool. And I was like, how can we get to this kind of thing? So for the first time I understood the planets. I know it sounds dumb because they were swirling around me . And I was like, how do you create this in a way that is light? And I don't think you can . I think you kind of have to have some sort of holographic room or something that you live in or your room has cameras . But this idea that you can have it all from the glasses means you have to wear these chalky glasses and but when you're in it, it is quite lovely. It's just the I don't know how they're going to make these light and easy to wear. You know, they're they're in the movies they're always in Ironman always has a pair that looks pretty cool there.' Buts military applications, there's commercial applications, but from a consumer standpoint, these glasses and these three it's always been like it's always been like going to the planetarium at Griffith Park, which I used to do with my college buddies. We get ridiculously fucking hot. I go to the planetarium and think this is amazing. We got to do this again in another twenty four months. Yeah. I mean, that's a really good it's just not yeah , commercial application is the most ubiquitous screen in the phone. I mean in, the world, your iPhone that you can hold up to something and use AR not VR . And then where the only wearable in my opinion, that's going to really take off is the one that's already taken off, and that is AirPods. And I mean, keep in mind spec , Snap launched specs, and they are an innovator in twenty sixteen for one hundred thirty bucks, and nobody bought them. So naturally, the solution was to make them fifteen times more expensive and way out there. Yeah. So they sort of look like the Raybands. I'll tell you that. They definitely do. The early specs. This is dead on arrival. Snap is an innovative, subscale company that should be searching for an acquirer right now. Yeah. No, who would buy them? I don't know. I don't I don't know if I don't know if the matter is allowed to. I don't I don't know. It's probably someone else the chief product office. And even for even years, even despite the fact the stock is now ninety percent or whatever it is in the last five years , it's still not six billion dollars. It's not Trump change. Yeah, remember he was offered a ton of money to be bought by soccer . I think it was in the million. It was in this area. Yeah, he turned him down. Well, it's interesting. I think he was offered three billion and now it's worth six or eight. But if it had been three billion in Facebook stock, that would be worth thirty or fifty billion now. Yeah, now I know. Anyway, good try, Evan, but really, you don't look good at those glasses. I'm sorry, you don't I like you, but maybe tell the truth. All right, Scot t, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions . Support for this show comes from Chili Pad. 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Me slash pivot, free shipping, free returns and a thirty night trial. So you can test it out. Dream big and wake up better. The headlines will still be there in the morning. You might as well wake up ready for them. Support for this show comes from Odu . Running a business is hard enough , so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odu. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier CRM, accounting, inventory, e commerce, and more. And the best part, Odu replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch , so why not you? Try Odoo for free at Odoo. com That's OD . com . Support for this show comes from Odoo. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odu. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e commerce, and more. And the best part, Odu replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch . So why not you? Try Odoo for free at Odoo. com That's ODO . com Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. I have to say, can I make one quick prediction? I was really struck by and I was just on the view and I like those ladies of the view, but I think they did a fantastic job with that interview with Jade Vance. I thought they did a great job . And I have to say because I'd be thinking like someone was like, TV's over. I'm like, is all TV over or can you innovate TV? And when you see things like that , you're like, they created a viral moment that was also substantive There are ways to innovate in the broadcast space, I think. Not secular because secularly, it's going down . But when I saw that, I'm like, there would be a way to do this that was like they did a great , they showed you could make products that are really people like and I think it was viewed by a lot of people. It did like a huge social thing. And I was just like, good, like, what would you do to innovate television was really it made me start thinking? And I have to say I pay compliments to them because that's not where you expect . I think the best interview of him was done, I have to say , of all of them. And I thought they asked exactly the right questions. They had the amount of fairness and the fairness and quality and also had a lot of good side eyes. Sunny Hostin and Anna had the best side eyes, but it was it was well done. I have to say. Yeah, I agree with you though. I thought they did as good a job as they were very respectful. They were pushed back when it was appropriate. I thought he did I thought he did the best he could with the hand he's been built Yes. Or delt, I should say. I don't, you know, he was you know, kudos to him. He wants to be president. Kudos to him, you got to go into the lions down. He did. He did. And I thought he was actually the in a weird way. I thought it was a win for both of them. I thought he came off as well done. More human? Yeah, I thought it was well done. Here's the problem. He's what they should the only question they didn't ask him is the one they asked Kamala. How what would you separate yourself from? That's a great question. That's the one I would do differently. What would you do differently? I would ask the I would ask it exactly the same. That's exactly right. That would have killed him. 'Cause he'd have to have the same answer Kamala did, which is not a thing. I can't think of a thing. He couldn't say anything is the thing. So that would have been the killer question. Sadly, I was not there. He wouldn't have come on if you were there, I don't think. Anyways , okay, so my prediction is un ique. An activist is going to show up in four hundred seven either to sell or spend the specs division . They've spent three point five billion over the past decade on their fever dreams of a wearable with no real return . And they spend about a third of their adjusted EBITDA on specs per year . And better capitalized competitors, including Apple and Meta are struggling to make this product category work . And if they spun or shut down their specs division, it's actually it's not a great business, but it's a good business and that is SNAP for all of its issues and being subscale is only one of four scaled social networks. It has a billion monthly active users and nearly half a billion daily active users, said my children . Yeah. My two. My kids, my sons still like it. Snap has over six million in revenue. It's still growing ten percent a year and it has a billion in subscription revenue growing sixty percent a year. If Snap were able to achieve Reddit 's forward revenue multiples, it would be worth three and a half X what it is today. So anyways, I think there's an activist play around saying to Evan You have got to stop with the spec shit and either spin that into a separate company for other dumb people to finance , but the core business is a good business and you've saddled it with a shitty business and you don't have the capital to do that unlike these other companies that can go play in traffic. You can't you have to be more disciplined in the seven . And the person or the entity that's going to impose that discipline will be an activist that comes in and buys five to ten percent of the company and says get shut this down or spin it. I think you're going to see it in the next . You know, I always go to the same people, but there's activists everywhere now. Yeah that's you're about to see quite frankly, you're about to see twenty new hedge funds from former SpaceX anthropic and open AI employees . Do you know what I'm saying? I had a dinner with a group of friends last night . My friends Fernando and T ony and Stephen last night at