Texas Senate Race and Voter Dynamics

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There's no safe, like SimplySafe This podcast is sponsored by Mid in Cookware Made in partners with multig generenerational artisans and some of the world's best chefs to create professional quality cookware, knives, and kitchen tools Their products are trusted in Michelin starred restaurants worldwide and designed to perform just as well in your kitchen From five ply stainless clad to carbon steel, every piece is built to last and made to actually make you a better cook Discover award winning cookweare at madeincookweare. com Welcome to Pods of America. I'm John Fabrou. And I'm Alex Wagner. Two weeks in a row. Baby. You know, I'm really glad when you said I want to do a special Nicks focused episode Todd. That is what I said. It was like, who will even know where we're gonna be? But it turns out, very fortuitous, happay to just talk about the Nicks on this podcast. Thanks for inviting me, John Um, congratulations. That was I somethinghing to do with. I had, u I had some excellent timing because I put the boys to bed and then I went downstairs and I turned the game on at the beginning of the fourth quarter when the run started. ci with your Pacific standard time. Oh it's watching sports West Coast time, not that I ever do because I have two young children, I know, but is the best. It is the best. Its you're so lucky. I had put my I let them stay up a little bit late and we saw the first quarter and it was like We can turn this off now. They were like my my eight year old started like kind of crying and he was like, I hate the next. and And I said, you need to manifest positivity. I put them to bed. And then they he woke me up at seven o'clock. I know I slept in and he was like, Mom they won And then we watched highlights. I was slightly concerned that Trump had cursed them for the rest of the series, but it turns out it's just about him actually physically being there And also Sart and expXans burned a bunch of sage in front of the garden yesterday because we know how to clear b collaborations. Clear the Trump stink of Yeah. it's just it hangs in the air, especially in this weather. but listen Well There we go. There we go. That's it Thanks for joining us. Make sure to subscribe to Plaz America We got a lot to talk about on today's show. We're going to talk about Trump saying We're on the verge of a deal with Iran for the thirty ninth time Since the war began a little over one hundred days ago, who knows? This could be the big one. We'll also cover the president's latest inflation gff, spoiler He loves it In his attempt to quiet Republican fhur over Bill Pulty by announcing his long term pick for DNI. There's also new reporting that the knives are out in Trumpand, which is perfectly illustrated by an explosive new story from Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swann about how these morons bumbled their way through the Epstein crisis. And finally, you will hear my conversation with our pal Ron Brownstein, one of the best political analysts out there about the midterm state of play His take on the Graham Platinner saga, the House map, the Senate map, and much more. But before we start, please consider subscribing to Croed and become a friend of the pod. You get ad free episodes of Pods of America and all your favorite Crooked Pods. You also get to be supporting one of the few pro democracy, independent media outlets left in the world Barry Weiss hasn't shut down yet tried to murder And you get subscriber onlyly shows like Dan Pfiffer's Poller coaster, our special extra episode of Pods of America, and access to all of our excellent sububstack newsletters. Think about subscribing if you haven't already, if you have tell a friend Cricut.ot com slash friends Hi friends What' that? Tell five friends. Tell five friends. I like that Thank you, Eic. Why go for one? Don't clip your own wings All right, I want five friends from everyone. hereere we go. All right, Alex. stop me if you've heard this one before The ceasefire with Iran broke down, missiles started flying again. Trump threatened to bomb the shit out of the entire country. and then at the last minute announced with great fanfare that he's calling off the strikes because a deal is finally at hand Is this an episode from six weeks ago, three weeks ago, last week, next week, ten weeks from now. All of the above You know, John I've come to the Chris Nolan theory of time that it's a dimension And so it's always happening We're always at war and a deal is always imminent. We're always at war with It is omnipresent. We live in the dimension of We're never not. about it will go on forever. Middle It has been happens, I guess. Yes It is just it's, we're going to be talking about this for eternity. Like I look it's like All right, let's talk about the latest almost deal with Iran and then we'll talk about the inflation gff and then we're off I I think I've been thinking a lot about this and I wonder if it's time for the press to stop asking him anything about the war. because it's so It's like asking like perhaps a mentally ill person about stock tips. Like there's no use in doing that. They'll tell you some things. Now I think he is. I will say he's pretty good at that because of all the insider information which he trades off of. So that is true. thir thousand seven hundred that's quite quite adept at doing that U So the latest U.S. strikes hit targets across Iran, including apparently drinking water infrastructure, which would likely be a war crime. And after Trump threatened to take Karg Island and assume quote total control of Iran's oil, he backed down with the post claiming, quote, final points have been in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved and then listed ten countries. Iran was not one of them As I mentioned, CNN has tallied this up for us. It's at least the thirty ninth time that Trump has claimed a deal is imminent. And you know, he did take some questions on the deal in the oval, but like you said It was all the same questions and all the same crazy answers. We thought it was much more interesting to play a supercut from his callin to Fox and friends this morning between when he threatened to destroy the country and he announced an almost deal. He was he was there to ostensibly discuss Iran But that only barely happened. Here are some of the highlights. I mean, I'd like to get a deal now less than three or four weeks ago because you know, once you do this, it I just you could just go a step further But I don't know that America has the appetite to do what I would really much prefer doing. Look we were in Vietnam nineteen years. If it were me, I would have had that war done in three months, but we did great in twenty twenty. It was a rigged election And you saw it in California.er veryy interesting if I could just have said all of a sudden, Oh, we have a surprise, Steve Hilton won But Iran. It's a rigged election. way but just go back to I should have brought that up. But I don't know But let's get back let's get back That was I just want to say to the public, it's rigged election. We need the Save America Act eriod Got it. Okay, let's get back to Iran. muchuch simpler. Iran is very good at publicity, but they're not good at fighting. I took a look at I must tell you Itay can't believe the press they get They can't even believe it. And they told me, they said, it's amazing how well we're doing in the papers. We're not doing so well. They're negotiating with us to make a deal. It's like They did an editorial today about We're not hitting them hard enough. I mean, it's just not hitting them hard enough. We dropped two hundred fifty million dollars worth of bombs on them last night. You know, it the whole thing is crazy. Part of the problem is that they read the fake news. I mean, because Fox is greater All the anchors on Fox have been fantastic from Sewn to Jesse, to Laura, I mean they've open Great, everybody, every single anchor's been great. You guys have been amazing. Excellent. Seems like he's locked in, huh Dude Okay. I mean, like where do we even begin with this? First of all, there's so many things to call attention to The fact that he had to in the middle of all of this go off on the twenty twenty election, and Brian Kilmeed is like, I shouldn't have brought that up I shouldn't have wr the And he says Iran's not Iran. It's my fault though. it's my fault. I took us off topic And then Trump says, let's get back to Iran, a much simpler situation Um He sounds like an old angry person who's not yet even stood up from bed. You know, he has that kind of the throaty congestion of someone who's just ranting from bed, like And it's just Obviously, it's just association at this point, just word salads. None of it makes sense. The fact that he keeps bringing up Vietnam like a comparison should not make any member of the American public feel assured that they have their hands on the wheel here that they got their arms around this thing. Well, look at Vietnam. That took so long. Yeah no, dude. we don't want to do that again Al alsoso his whole thing about, you know I do what I want to do, but the American people might not have the stomach for it. Like he's he wants to do this big war. He wants to keep going with the war He wants to just he wants he wants more war. Cnter warar H message at one point he's pressed to give his message to the Iranian people. and Trump says, and this is a quote, My message to the Iranian people is they're afraid because they have no guns and the other side has guns. That's not a message to the Iranian people, I don't think, is? That is not a message to the I. Every time somebody's asked about this whole war though confuses it feels like intentionally now the Iranian people with the regime And so everyone's like, what about the Iranian people? And he's like, they're running scared. That's what they're doing. And it's like people are specifically mentioning the Iranian people. And he, of course, does not give a shit about them even though that was you know, that was one excuse for why we were doing this in the first place I also love the notion that the Iranian regime that Mhtaba Aremini, who has not been seen in public since this began, is calling Trump to be like, it's amazing how well we're doing in the papers. The papers.. I grabbed The New York Times here the other I grabbed the post this morning. You should have seen the wood on the post. Amazing I'm getting amazing press They they they they put the Nicks on the back page. I was right there in the front And that was a great game, mr. President. He also starts talking at some point about Tianneman Square and how it takes a It it starts the drivers of the tanks in Tianenemen Square who mowed down citizens at which point he's cut off. and they're like, we only have a minute, mister. President. They literally cut him off on Fx and Friends because he's so adled. Can I say though seriously, John? I mean, because you mentioned, and I think very importantly, and he certainly wasn't being asked about this onn the Fox and Friends broadcast They may have bombed water infrastructure, which would be a war crime And The story of whenever this ends, or maybe it never ends because time is a dimension. but when theoretically comes to a conclusion, the story of American war crimes in Iran will live with us as our legacy for decades. We on rununaway Country had talked to a retired master sergeant at the what is it called the Civilian Protection Center of Excellence, which was a department in the DOD, which was set up to mitigate and prevent civilian deaths For example, bombing a girl's school or bombing water infrastructure. and Pete Haggseth wrote in and dismantled it effectively. Civilian deaths are not beside the point. I mean, I think terrorizing people Eespecially brown people, the world over is the point. And we I mean The This administration owns these civilian deaths, and we don't have a good tally of them because there's so much opacity with regards to this war, even as it concerns American deaths, and we have a free press But at some point, the numbers are going to come out. and Donald Trump will own every single one of those deaths for a deal that looks like it will be nothing on par with the JCPOA. Also one thing he said there in that clip that we played is, you know, he's talking about the Wall Street Journal editorial board. saying that he's not bombing hard enough. He's not doing enough, right? Because they're hawks over there. And He also calls the he' like, I know that you guys own them, but they're trash he said to the Fox people referring to Murdoch. And He's like, what do what do they want from me? We just dropped two hundred fifty million dollars worth of bombs on them last night. So now he is bragging to the American people about using their tax dollars to drop bombs on Iran that hit water infrastructure that could potentially cause civilian death So now it he's telling people's like, hey, what do you want for me? I spent your money killing people in Iran for no reason last night. It's the first time we've also gotten any kind of price tag from him. I mean, it's so embarrassing that this is like The bracadocio about killing civilians is the only way we get some transparency about from this White House about what the damage and the sort of collateral on the table is. it's like horrifying you know, the question is, you know, will will will Lucy yank the football away yet again or is this finally Charlie Brown's moment? It seems like the It's still just a a memorandum of understanding. So that's so Trump said that in the Oval, which means it's the sort of the same deal as before deal Um The Israelis are apparently surprised and they said they're not part of this deal at all So no matter what the deal is, it's not solving the conflict between Israel and Lebanon Trump said that the Ayatllah has agreed already. Iran is not saying that. There An Iranian news agency said there's a high chance the agreement will be approved. So like, you know, maybe we're going to get there. But it feels like we're right back to if it does get approved, what it is is the end of the naval blockade reopening of the strait and then kicking all the nuclear issues down the road for more negotiations that I'm sure will not go anywhere else. But I don't And there's there's definitely going to be some sweetening to the tune of, I mean, Marco Rubio on the Hill said they were not going to trade sanctions relief for reopening the strait. But and Nahal Tuzi has like a breakdown of this in Politico today, there's definitely ways that they can make sure money flows to Iran basically to fill back up the coffers and pay them for reopening pay them to reopen the straight We are going to buy any kind of resolution that happens here. We may not know about it as American taxpayers, but it is certainly there is going to be a shell game going on inside the bowels of the federal government to ensure that money goes to the Iranian regime because otherwise, why would they do any of this No, of course. And what what happens what will happen is some intrepid reporters will find out what the shell game is and report it in a and a great story, and then someone will ask the White House about it and they'll basically say, fuck you fake news. and then everyone will go on to the next thing. But Butt don't take it from us. takeake it from Brian Kilmeed who said, mr. President, you're like an anaconda squeezing the life. That was out of the enemy. sllowly squeezing them to death. He said it like four times. Yeah, he was really happy with his analogy and he just ke He was like, but did you hear the anacondy a workhopping it. Yeah Before we move on, what did you make of his rant about the California election? D Did you realize that Steve Hilton won because Donald Trump complained about Spencer Pratt losing Yeah, what did you say about Spencer Brad? He was like the kid got shafted. He got shafted. But then I said something. I said something and now Now we got Steve Hilton. Now he made it through Yeah. It was happening to Steve Hilton too. But now I mean, it's it's good that someone's got their eyes on California. We guys we know how you operate. And it's a it's a complicated, you know, con, right? You think, Ohh, well, the gubernatorial race matters more, but no What this is is about singular and discrete races that are stolen for no apparent reason, but just to throw you off the scent Yes, it's about it's about the LA mayor, the incumbent who much wanted to face Spencer Pratt much more than she wanted to face a progressive challenger. and yet did her best to rig the election so that she could get that progressive challenger and not Spencer Pratt. That is. was a double cross of a double cross, John. Untangle that cat's cradle budd But like, can I just say ye, the election fraud and going back to twenty twenty is like so much more animates this dude than actually Iran. I mean, he's both incompetent and incoherent on Iran, but he's also bored of it. Like he doesn't really have Like he would much rather he wants to talk about the S of America Act. He wants to talk about raw power and the stealing of elections and getting his election deniers, you know having them act with the full force of the federal government. That's what really gets us guy up in the Yes, as you can tell from the tone in his voice Pudsve America brought you by neeutrifal. Real change comes from the small healthy habits you do every day that quietly add up to big improvements. That's the idea behind neutrrophol It's built around a simple, consistent approach to hair health that works from within and delivers visible results over time, not overnight Neutrophol is the number one dermatologist's recommended hair growth supplement brand, and it's the number one hair growth supplement brand personally used by dermatologists. Neutrifal's hair growth supplements are peer reviewed, NSF certified for sport and clinically tested. It's not a one size fits all approach. 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It was with rice and Who knows I'm going to have tonight? Mbe It's like a good chicken dish they gave me. anyway. I've used C Cunity for years, long before their ever sponsor. It's great. It's the first chef led meal delivery service that makes your meals in small batches inside local micro kitchens across the US, not factories. So every dish arrives with the kind of freshness you' get at the restaurant itself, meals from Michelin starred chefs, James Beard winners, and food Network stars cook Unity d. com slash crooked Or use Code Crooked before checkout fifty percent off your first week. Every Cook Unity meal is handcrafted by chefs in local microkitchens, not mass produced in large facilities, fresh, never frozen, and can be refrigerated for up to seven days. 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New inflation data from Trump's own Department of Labor shows that that prices rose in May to a three year high for the third straight month with energy prices up twenty four percent from a year ago. Data on wholesale inflation released Thursday morning, put that measure at its highest since late twenty twenty two Trump, of course, has delivered run of gass on the topic of how much people's financial struggles are weighing on him. Here's a few highlights to jog your memory. Do you believe the price of oil and gas will be lower before the midterm elections I hope so. I mean, I think so, it could be. it could be or the same or maybe a little bit higher. I thought that oil prices I look today, it's like at one hundred and two. And That's a very small price to pay for Getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged. Affordability is a hoax that was started by Democrats Well, they're not very high. I don't think about. American's financial situation. I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing. We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all. I don't care about the mid timimes. Look what happened last night The prelude to the midterms Well Good news We have a new contender for the crown Here's what Trump said on Wednesday in response to a question about the latest inflation data. You hear mister President about the latest inflation number which came out this morning. Could that be a no? I love it. the numbers wereum. You know what I really love. I love the inflation. You know why? Because' so I love the inflation. He loves the inflation I wish they could pan to other faces in the room, you know? That's good. Yeahah. so much I just. Someone in the pool just go to Szie Welles's face What when this is being said? I love the inflation. Scott Bt where I love the inflation. I mean, this is The downside, John of having a malignant narcissist in office, like they can't summon empathy when empathy is the prerequisite from staving off the political fallout, from stopping the bleeding here Like they the war is so catastrophically out of Trump's to aertain degree because he refuses to engage in diplomacy and doesn't really give a shit and is also an idiot But like if he's going to try and manage the political reality that he and his party are facing, you got to start the sentence with empathy and I feel your pain and I know this economy iss bad and it's tough to be a working class American, but X, Y and Z about Iran and the stability of the globe or whatever. But he is constitutionally unable to summon too even pretend, not only not is he constitutionally unable to pretend to be empathetic He's the opposite. He's digging the knife in further. Bill Clinton's message was, I feel your pain. Donald Trump's message is, I cause your pain. And I'm fucking glad I did. And tough shit That's me. I cause your pain. You and your dumb cars. you and your dumb desire to put food on the table. Don't talk to me about healthcare I need another million for my ballroom Now for my money, I still think The raigning champ is, I don't care I don't think about American' financial situation at all. It' I don't know. I love the inflation It's funny because he uses the article in front of it, right? I love the inflation. so that makes it a little funnier. But Well, you know, he says it's actually the full quote is so good. You know what I really love I love the inflation. You could argue right. Like he's like, hold it. He's teas it up. He's like, I'm about to you know what I really love? the inflation Like it's so sadistic. It honestly, I don't think about Americans' financial situations is part of a bigger question and I'm not excusing it at all. I think it like it was disastrous quote, but this is psychotic. This is someone who's like, you like the pain, how about a little bit more? You what I really like fucking over the American public It's always dangerous to do this, but I was trying to think of like what was he actually trying to do there? And I think what he in his in his Adult veryery old minded Um, he was thinking You know what, this data? It's going to be great because as soon as the war is over This inflation iss going to come right down and then I'm going to take all this credit for inflation falling So I love the inf like I think it's a little bit like still doesn't make sense. It doesn't No, of course not, off course not. Like becauseuse he's talking about ongoing inflation. It still doesn't He doesn't know he also doesn' know what inflation is, really? Yes.'s. Can I just say also I don't mooonlight as a petroleum engineer, but I will for this podcast. Yes. I try I try and come prepared The gas prices are not going down even if the Strait of Hormuz opens back up tomorrow. No, like This is stakakes This is this is where we' we're cook. L shit out for the maternal The Washington Post is talking about the reality of these like ships getting through back through the strait. They're like, even the hundreds of fully loaded tankers that have idled in the strait since last February will not be able to quickly move their cargo. Vessels are now so coated with barnacles that teams of divers will need to be dispatched to clean them I didn't know that This This is not just going to be an issue, the issue in the midterms This is going to be an issue. in for Jie Vance in the Republican primary and whoever decides to run against him from outside the administration. I mean, this is like by act by twenty twenty eight, it won' maybe it won't be hopefully it won't be as much of an issue. But like twenty twenty seven when the primaries are happening. Yeah. one hundred percent. You're so right to say that, that is like such a you're so smart about this, but that is so true. I mean, again, I'm not petroleum engineer, but the refineries and the production facilities have been takeaken offline and it takes months to get them back up and running. And like if the oil supplies, I also didn't know this. if oil supplies drop low enough then it breaks down if there's not actually oil running through the pipeline, it can break down the production systems. So like if they don't resolve this in the next several weeks, there's like a catastrophic supply side issue where the infrastructure starts breaking down And that's Well, like fixing all that is going to take forget about the fucking travel season. We're talking about holiday plans, Thanksgiving, Christmas. Like again, I'm not rooting for any of this. I didn't say that. I don't know why I'm saying again, I'm not a politician, but this is a fucked up situation And yet I And not and yet, the incompetence and the refusal to acknowledge reality here is makes you think they really want to lose that there's something again, they're just it's It's self flagellation, politically speaking Here's the other challenge and I'm no geopolitical expert, but if they come to a deal where it's just about opening the strait for money and for ending the naval blockade, and then they go on to negotiate the nuclear issue, which is going to be Tricky, to say the least, and they don't include Israel and the deal U then as we get into the fall Um, and Trump has his elections and we have our elections here Netanyahu has his elections in Israel As long as Israel continues to be at war with Lebanon and firing, you know, firing at Hezboah and Hezboah issiring rockets in Israel and Iran doesn't want to let those rockets go unanswered and then Iran gets involved. like that We're not bringing peace to the Middle East with a with a memo of understanding. U So I think that and there's a risk there both for in the midterms and in the presidential primaries that the Middle East is now permanly in this state of, I mean, it's there's always been a lot of conflict in the Middle East, but like this latest conflict continues as a as sort of like in a low boil, I guess in the in the best case scenario, low boil, but like and they're going to have to deal with it. They're going to have to deal with the fallout this war for years. It is this is what I mean by time is a dimension. The war is ongoing The war never ends. We are constantly on the brink of a peace deal. call me in twenty fifty nine. So also on this note, the Washington Post reports that oil and gas executives have been warning the White House that, as you said, that gas prices are likely to spike. So they're hearing this from the oil executives themselves. This is not like This is not just just us talking about it. And then Politico has a story on Wednesday with the headline, The die has been cast. Trump allies fear it's too late to reverse economic woes U I also think there was a funny quote that I just saw from John Cornan. who is liberated now. He spoke to the New York Times. and he said he said this about Donald Trump He's going to have the most miserable two years of his life in the last two years of his term, I think, because I think November is going to be a disaster You know what? I mean, o fuck like I know. What is that? what you what's going to be miserable? I mean miserable things to Democrats who have backbones and certainly not to Republicans who might actually stand up to him. I mean, John Corn has no reason to continue to enable the agenda of this mad man. and yet given the opportunity to break with him hasn't. I mean, it's just such cold comfort when you hear the guys that are on their way out the door suddenly sort of develop a moral compass. It's such bullshit. And by the way, they haven't delivered on anything. There have been some pretty big ticket issues that they could have done something about in the last week and they've chosen not to. So like call me when yourre backbones made of actual bone matter and not What am I even saying? John Cornan What the fuck ever What the fuck ever is what I say? I know. I agree with everything you said and then I also love hearing quotes like that. So's you know, to get a little bit of both. I get mad because I'm like, why where have you been? but also yeah I think I think what he said is right. I hope so Well, and I think that there's a you know, you should be dragging all of these every time an administration official goes in goes up to the hill, a fairy gets her wings. Every time an American administration official goes to the the hill and has to testify under real questioning, they prove themselves to be absolute clowns and someone ends up losing their job. L just look at the, you know, look at look at the track record of Pam Bondni and Christy Noome and, you know, Tulsy Gabber. like so the once Democrats control Congress and I think there's a likelihood that's both houses, like there's going to be some real investigation into the Absolute I'm not going to say, I mean, the ammorality, the potential criming and the deep corruption of this administration, and they're going to have to answer for it. all of it then and then they're going to continue fighting with each other, which we hear is happening right now. Apparently, Trump Trump is not happy about any of this, and it's putting a real strain on the supportive workplace culture that he has tried so hard to build Here's a MAGa operative close to the White House talking to Playbook this morning. Trump is, quote, increasingly frustrated with everyone from his own team to the Senate. He's pissed and people are not recognizing the level of pissed that he is. And here's another White House ally talking about Trump's staff. quote, Knives are out in some capacity, this person said. I mean people are stabbing people like it's chaos The chaos is like creeping back. Itounds like a fun place to work goodood benefit. I mean I Great, great real The ladder is steep, but you can climb it I don't, I mean The knives are out. like if you thought should we be surprised that this the most incompetent and corrupt White House in American history is beset by infighting and backstabbing? Absolutely not I guess what's marginally interesting to me about that is those quoteser choice that it hasn't spilled out as much, I'm setting aside like Bonjino Gate and all that. That infighting hasn't spilled out in the sort of real Kremlinology of this White House the way that it did in Trump one point zero, given that things are going so much worse for Trump and he's so much more adult and obviously less. I mean, maybe he's asleep more So that offers a reprieve and people can know unruffle their feathers. but it's interesting to me that there hasn't been as much of a revolving door and sort of leaked backstabbing sort of anecdotes coming out of this White House the way there was in Trump won. I don't know what that owes to. Maybe it's Suszie Wiles, but it sure still doesn't sound like a good place to work. mean. Nhing is once you've been to the crooked media headquarters The bar is very high. veryery high. My guess on this is that the percentage of like die hard loyalists is much higher in the second term And so all the people who might have had a conscience or wanted to speak out or thought things were going too far, they're all gone now And so it's just the hardcore true believers And so if you're starting to get knives out among those people That That's the good stuff right there. That's when you know things are combustible And I would say, You know, and I'm sure we'll talk about this later when we talk about the slush fund. there is the carrot on the stick of personal enrichment in a way that is like, it's an almost an explicit promise. Like if you're in this White House and, Pam Bondi was doing stock trades, they all have sort of various honey pots that they're dipping into There is that will keep you there in your seat maybe a little bit longer because you're making you have side hustles in a way that that was not an option or that they hadn't discovered that maybe in Trump one point zero. There is a reason to stay longer perhaps than you would. I mean, you know, personal personal, what is it personalized bourbon doesn't just grow on trees, John. And if you're cash patel, being FBI director, you know, membership has its perks. sure does. So Trump is off of course pissed that Republicans keep defying him And that's like one of the things he's really mad about and it looks like Republican sort of displeasure with him picking Bill Pulty. for acting DNI, as you and I talked about last week has led to Trump announcing his long term pick for DNI U And it's that's US. attorney and former SEC chair Jay Clayton. So that got announced today on Thursday U presumably because enough Republicans said, fuck no, we're not dealing with the Bill Pultty is a bridge too far And also if you go ahead with Bill Pulty as a permanent DNI director or even a temporary DNI, which some of them said absolutely not about. that even if they do that, then what they were going to do is hold up seven hundred two. or the reauthorization of seven hundred two, which is what gives the federal government warrantless spy powers 've got to make sure the government warrless spy powers, right? That is again, that is a bipartisan push. But anyway So now the question is, does this do it for for Congress now that they've got and also What do you think about J Clayton Okay, so twoo things. One, as I understand it, and our crracker jack fact checking team can probably disabuse me of this if it's incorrect Polty rememains. I think the Times is reporting. the current plan is for Polty to continue to serve as acting director until Clayton is confirmed by the Senate. Yes. and once and he once again there, there was another story about apparently he called Tulsi Gabbard, Bill Polty and was like I know you said you're leaving next month or whatever, but you're out now. I'm starting And she's like, what the fuck? She's like the president should tell me that? And then she called the president and he was like Well, what do you want your last day to be? And so now it's going to be, I think in a week Well, that's because he knows he has, you know, the clock is running and these, you know, Tish James mortgage fraud documents don't just find themselves John He has has a special skill. He has a special. Well, I mean, he's in there to be faffing around in classified material to try and drum up reasons why elections have been stolen or Democrats or corrupt or whatever the fuck it is I don't like the idea of Bill Pouulty being anywhere near the Office of National Intelligence. L that is setting aside Jay Clayton, like that is alarming and that is every reason why Democrat they first of all, Senate Republicans like John Cornan, who are intent on giving the president keeping him in line They they got the wool pulled over their eyes on the slush fund. and now we're talking about that coming up But they shouldn't get their the wool pulled over their eyes on Bill Pulty. Like that man needs to be locked out of the intelligence infrastructure and G't get a restraining order, basically, because even two weeks on the job for him is too many. And if that means holding up FISA reauthorization until and unless that happens, then that's what should happen. L he is a danger to democracy This is basically what that's basically what, um I haven't seen other Democrats yet, but Mark Warner, who's a ranking member on Intel said that. Warner was like This is fine.m like I wish we could have got here earlier, but there's no way we're no way we're reauthorizing FISA unless we get assurances that there's no Bill Pole at all Like Bill Polty needs to be extradited to a different country and get nowhere near like a passport office I will say, I mean Clayton oversaw a lot of the review of the Epstein documents. because was. He was the one, I think his his prosecutors brought the case against Nicholas Maduro, which was, you know, nominally the reason that Trump went in and seized Maduro. He's very capable of doing the president's bidding. and I think that's probably what won him favor. He also, in recent days has been raising alarms about fraud in California and the vote count. so like I noticed that. Yeah, he said he said, I'm not saying there's fraud, but the laws, the way they're written in California, present the opportunity for fraud. I'm like, okay, J Clton. now we know why J Clayon now we know why Jay Clayton was just. Totally. I mean and that's a prerequisite for anybody I don't know. there's a part of me that thinks, okay, maybe Clayton gets in there and he proves himself to be more of a bulwark against Trump's most lawless impulses, or maybe he becomes more of a stuge. like Todd Blanche was kind of respected like white You know, white shoe law firm kind of guy and has turned out to be like the architect of our national nightmare. So I'm a little worried. I'm worried about anybody that meets Trump's standards or substandards for any of these positions. I like that Jim Himes someone I, you know, and Mark Warner, people, Democrats who have like very good reputations on this are signing off on him and saying he's good. That's reassuring. But you know, I worry. something happens to you When you walk into the Trump administration, you have to check your morals and your brain at the door Eespecially if you're someone who wants the job Um, that's that's a that's a red flag You No one in their right mind should want this. Also wantant a promotion, yeah idiot ass administration understand there's a legislative branch that like needs to confirm this but like why did he nominate this guy as the House is out and the Senate's out? Like this is nothing Nothing's going to happen until I think june twenty third. So FISA authorization is going to expire almost no matter what, even if the candidate is more to the liking of the upper chamber Yeah, and again, is it some kind of a scheme? or is it just Typical incompetence could be either Probably probably incomet. probablyroably incompetence. 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Sundays fordogs d. com slash crooked fifty or use code crooked fifty at checkout On the slush fund that you mentioned, the Alantic Seriff Fitzpatrick, whoroke those stories about cash patel drinking on the job, has new reporting that administration officials are quietly telling allies that, quote, plans for some form of payout remain on track. So we've talked about this too Everyone, you know, Blanche said it's we're not moving forward with it, but then Republicans in Congress blocked any provision in the IC funding bill that would have killed it for good. And then Trump talks about how much he loves it still and he loves the slush fund and sure enough It sounds like from this reporting and Sarah talked to quite a few officials current and former in the Justice Department in Congress in the Trump administration elsewhere, who said that basically there the plan could be that anyone who wants a payout from the slush fund or from what used to be the slush fund would just sue the government. because that's who you'd sue for that. And then the federal government, the DOJ, will just settle and settle for an amount of money some amount of money is a payout. and that's that Even if the courts are like, because they wouldn't take their case to court because the court would be like, well, thats fucking crazy.' you're on video almost murdering a cop. So no, we're not going to pay you any money or find in favor of you. And they'll say, well, we don't have to go to court because the DOJ will settle with us. Yeah. I mean, it's not an adversarial lawsuit. therefore, it would be thrown out in court But with this true story of this administration, as obviously corrupt as the ballrooms and the reflecting pool contracts and all that shit is, the true story of corruption is what they're doing behind closed doors inside the guts of the federal government. And I will just plug runaway country one more time because this week, we talk to pro publica reporter Robert Fateracci, who's been breaking amazing stories, including the way in which the Trump kids dipping their hands in the deep coffers at the Department of Defense and you know, making ten X investments on venture capital funds or rare earth minerals startups or drone contractors. there is a lot of cash floating around in the American federal government and they have figured out a way to tap maple tree, if you will And the slush fund is exemplary of the opacity. Once people stop once these kind of issues stop being adjudicated publicly in courts or you know politically, and it's just a kind of behind the scenes process, a settlement fund at the DOJ that hush, hush, you can tap if you have friends at the DOJ,'s where the most brazen corruption happens. And I have every reason to believe that they intend on I mean, Sarah's reporting yes, but it's also Todd Blanche refused to write down Like he wouldn't submit a writt written statement saying the slush fund is outlawed. L their behavior in and around the cancellation of the slush fund was so transparent It was clear that they were going to try and resurrect it in some fashion. And the statements in the piece, I think she quotes Tom Tillis, who's like, he has grown vocal in his criticism of the administration as he heads towards retirement and indicated he may not vote to confirm Blanche unless the fund is truly dead Gee, you fucking think, Tom Why are you even alive? What are you doing Bill Cassidy? What is the point of you? I think I said this last time on we were on the podcast lesson. What is the point of you, Bill Cassidy Like, how cuck can you be to this Madman and his stooges When is enough enough? Apparently there is no limit U, And I do think that what you just mentioned about Blanche, that is one leverage point here is don't confirm Blanche. U unless, you know, they they put it in a court filing, right? You got to you can't just say it anymore. You have to like and also don't confirm Blanche because Um He helped with the Epstein cover up. And I just saw there was breaking news that a group of Epstein survivors you know, announced public opposition to Blanche's attorney general nomination. Like I do think That's the kind of fight you can pick u that actually is, you know, gets more attention than just we don't want Todd Blanche because Todd Blanche sucks, right? Like we have like we have some good examples. I think on the slush fun too,, I would make like This is An extreme example that tells the whole story of the Trump administration. And if I were Democrats, I would hammer it every single day from now into the midterms. If they win They have a secret plan to take your money and give it to criminals who beat cops and abuse children That's because those are lot of the Janes itself. Somehow so many of the january sixth convicts also have either gone on to commit child abuse or had in the past. So that's that's interesting. But yeah, these are the people that they want to give your money to if they win. And this is one area too where there's a lot of things that Trump's doing where if Democrats take Congress, unfortunately, we're not going to be able to do anything until We have a democratic president and so everyone's going to have to, know, keep fighting, and we're not going be able to pass legislation because Trum's still president Everything you were just talking about. happening behind closed doors, happening in secret with the slush Fund, with the other stuff. Democrats take Congress. They're going to be able to like shine a light on all of that and make sure that it doesn't happen. a lot of it, at least. And to make sure it doesn't happen. Slush Fund is a perfect example of that. And so I would be saying that all through the fall, like you elect Republicans And they are going to, Donald Trump is going to take your money and use it to pay out Criminals, Ciminals who beat cops John, they're such jibronies though, like they probably can't even pull it off in secret. they have quote's true That is true Hanley Woodward junior, who's an associate attorney generenal who signed off on the slutge fund. and he responds, We're on it to a post by Lindsey Graham that suggested victims of the weaponization fund could still be compensated through other means It's like, you're not supposed to say that, dude. He then deleted the post They're so dumb They are so dumb. and the criminals who were going to try to get the payouts, they're not going to be able to stop themselves from bragging about it because they are all of them os of themselves rolling around on beds of money like Demi Moore and indecent proroposal. Yes, like videos that they took of themselves breaking into the Capitol and trying to, you know, exactly. So speaking of knives out in Trump world, let's talk about the explosive story in the Times about just how badly the administration fucked up the entire Epstein saga. The story is actually an excpt from Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swann's forthoming new book, regime Change And it includes some Pretty incredible details and anecdotes that involve Trump officials screaming at each other and just generally acting like morons. What were some of your favorite bitths? Oh God, I mean, do I have to talk about abused nipples or will you talk about that? I really don't know what I have to talk I had I gonna have to tackle it. Tommy and I did a lot of nipple talk responding to this on YouTube. don't America YouTube? When don't you? Sorry, we don't do a lot of public nipple talk. Right Okay.. But yeah we we did we did lead off with this yesterday on the Pods of Amera YouTube, but's why that's why I want to hear. Well, that's why you should be a subscriber, huh? Exactly It's a great place Okay, where to we begin? Let's table abuse nipples. Maybe we won't even get to it and we'll drive people to the subscription only YouTube. rapid response I think just one of the things that grabbed me initially was the idea that they're sitting in the sit room, Trump isn't there. and it's like the cracker jack A team to figure out what to do about the Epstein scandal. And it's like Suzie Welliles, David Warrington, fine Caroline Levitt Stephven Chung Pam Bondi, Cash Patel. This is like, I'm trying to think, is it like a gang of like Rputins or Yago? Like what's the appropriate character delineation for this group of malicious idiots? But anyway, then of course, my I focus a lot on the Jie Vance of it all because in these inside, Maggie and Jonathan have done great reporting and they did another similar sort of piece about how America decided to go to war, which also involves a group of a lot of JD Vance malicious idiots. Yeah. And it's clear that JD Vance is a source for some of this Like in some parts of this, he comes across as the only clear thinker and understands that Epstein is a major problem for Trump and he needs to do something about it and they need to be aggressive. And you know he needs to he presses for the administration to release all the files and even the unsubstantiated allegations and anecdotes. But then he also has like the most dumb fuck ideas ever having suggesting that Um Tucker Carlson go and interview Galaine Maxwell, like somehow that's gonna solve their problems, which would only spin it into the stratosphere and is like asking a six year old to go eat a whole bunch of cotton candy and then take the teacups ride. Like it's all sensory overloook. Can you even imagine what that conversation would be like, I can't I don't know. what did you think? Also, well, so I had a couple of like big thoughts on the whole thing picture thoughts. One is that The people in the administration who most understand like what really drives and angers the Mgabase, your're JD Vanceces, your Dan Boninos, maybe sources for this story that could be likely. but clearly like They what's awesome about this is that they, you know, spoke up and are trying to stop this and trying to fix it. and yet they are going to be tarnished forever by not having achieved any of what they set out to achieve. So it's not like like no no one in the Mgabase is going to be like reading this and thinking like, oh, you know, JD Vance our guy on the inside. He tried his best Maggie and Jonathan's TikTok come on. Like no one No one's going to think that Yeah. So JD Vance is like, I have a great idea. We'll have Tucker interview Gaine Masaxwell. and then they was like, that's kind of crazy. then Todd Blanche is like, I'll interview Gelaine Maxwell. And then the White House counsel Floats giving her a pardon And then the rest of the room strongly disagrees. And then Stephven Chung says, quote, pardoning Maxwell, a trafficker of young girls would create a huge PPR problem. PR problem. No fucking shit, huh Wow. good thing good thing you're in this job. You're you're a bright guy But also not even a gesture. I know to words the morality the morality here. matterare they understand. The ethics never, ever come into debate. It is just about spin. It is just about minimizing the drama for the Trump administration. It is nothing about the victims and survivors who went through this hell It's so naked It should surprise anybody, but really it's astounding. And then JD Vance is like, than they thought when they they coming out with that wonderful memo that did nothing but causeed them more trouble Uh they had this original plan to have Todd Blanche go on Joe Rogan to talk about this. And then JD's like Well, how about I go instead of Todd Blanche? And I can take a few questions about this, but because it's me, the vice president and not Todd Blanche he'll have to ask about other stuff like the administration's progress on helping working people and the tax cuts and the bill like,, have you listened to Joe Rogan? And then of course, Joe Rogan was like, I'm only taking JD Vance and not Todd Blanche because who the fuck is Todd Blanche? And then it never goes anywhere. But I did like that little anecdote just because JD clearly has some You really the mind of a communication strategist. You'll definitely want to hear about how we're helping working families and how we're gutting the social safety net to help those working families. Also, Pam Bondi like released her fake dummy Epstein files without any consultation with the White House like And this is a small small thing, small thing, but she was left out on some of the emails about the memo. And the reason is is because it said Bondi rarely used her Justice Department email and was not on the chain where the group worked on the memo The attorney general rarely uses rarely used her Justice Department email. Remember twenty? Why is there some irony in that I'm missing? no, no, we've always cared a lot about It's not like she's dealing with classified information Oack here. And so and then Dan Bonino screams at Pam Bondi, yells at Suzie Wiles, storms out of meetings. He said to Pam Bondi, You fuck this thing up from the start, the way you've been talking about this, the dumb fucking charade with the Epstein files, the they're on my desk nonsense, all the promises to the folks out there So that was fun and threatened to qu. Bonino definitely a source. alsoso this I like this part of it. privately, Bonino seeted in conversations with confidants, he lamented what the job had cost him millions of dollars in podcast revenue, family time His audience. time Family timees priorities. Just sandwiching between the millions podcast. Yeah. I left I'm sorry Millions. Yeah, no, I've left to spend more time with my audience J's like, okay, No, it's good to know where your kids stand. Now now they know for sure We should between your like your downloads and your YouTube subscribers. Cool.fore Before we move on to from this, we should at least talk about a Nipplegate because otherwise people are going to think that we're weird that we didn't, we just threw it out there and then didn't actually explain don't want them to think we're perverts. No, right. So that's the president. That would be the president So when they looked through all the emails and all the files, they found allegations from a woman named Sarah Ransom and she claimed that she knew a girl in Epstein's sex trafficking ring named Jen who said she had sex with Trump Ransom also claimed that Jen had told her that Trump had a predilection for nipples and that he had aggressively flicked and sucked hers She wrote that she had seen evidence when she shared a bathroom with Jen, quote, They looked incredibly painful as they were red and swollen. and I remember wincing when I looked at them, she wrote Thank you for taking that one for the team, dude. Yeah No I was like I'm going to have to do this because I'm a woman, but you really thank you for doing me that solid U, so Of course, you know, unsubstantiated, but there was We heard, we didn't hear this exact story, but like this story had been out there. and then the White House has tried to say that because she had basically rescinded other allegations because she said she was afraid for her life, that maybe she's not a reliable source. And so o, she said the other things weren't true. She took it back. And so this so there's like some confusion on there. But anyway, the point is This story is why they didn't make the searchable database for all the files and left some out of there, which also ended up fucking them because obviously people knew they were withholding some of the files Damned if you do, damned if you don't U there's like the fact that we now live in a universe where these kind of stories are ones about the president of the United States where we're talking about document that connected Trump. to the claim about abused nipples was among the material that came out. I also That's what we're we now have to talk about abused nipples in the context of the president of the United States. And then I also like The JD Vance is like, That would be okay if you released the nipple related documents. Put it get it. Itive worse. It's gonna to be better It's going to be better to get it all out there. usinging nipples. It's nothing to it's nothing compared to the other abuse. And mean Suzie Welles is like Hard no, hard no, JD, not letting Nipplegate get out there Obviously like the lurid nature of that story in the description, makes it like that that is what sort of attracts your attention, but just stepping back from it all That is an allegation. The Donald Trump. was involved with Jeffrey Epstein's sex trafficking of underage girls And so now we have like and we're just all like, oh, well, that's that's a wild story. No It's not the only allegation. R It was it's and then it's like the one person in the White House who did not want to deal with the Epstein files, did not want to deal with a strategy around transparency and what was to be released and what wasn't was Donald Trump. and it's like, hm. And Wh did that be? And he says privately to Marjorie Taylor Green in the piece, Oh, it's because I don't want it release because it could really hurt some of my friends. like yeah, including his best friend. He's an M. Yes, exactly He very closest friend. And then we yes, I mean, there are a lot of listen, we're just asking questions, John. Yeah, as I mean, look, its it's all out there. It's all out there U One other data point on why Trump might not be in a great mood. I know you saw the post story saying that the Washington Post st saying that his last medical checkup, Trump was seen by twenty two different medical specialists. I did not read this whole story, but I know you wanted to That's all there is Have you ever seen twenty two doctors? The last time he was at the at Walter Reid, he was seen by a fourteen specialists, eleven before twenty two doctors seems like a lot. Now you could say, Ohh Biden saw twenty I think, according to Nreine Joh Pierre at his last year in office Biden also wasn't covering his hands in like Mabbeeline concealer on the daily. Didn't have a rash creeping up his neck, wasn't falling asleep all the time at any hour And as, you know, adled as Biden seemed, I don't think he approached the incoherence of Trump and certainly not with the same stakes Like we're in the middle of a war and the global economy is in a tailspin. There's like food shortages happening around the world. People in the Philippines can't go to work five days a week because there's not enough fuel I mean, it's like Anyway I think we should all be talking, thank you for including this in the rundown, John, because I do think we should all be talking a lot more about his fitness or office. Like it's kind of crazy to me that The Jibroni who fell asleep at the Kicks game gets a pass. any of it. like it is he increasingly shows no signs of competence in office. and The American public deserve to have more transparency about his health I do agree. I will also say though, if Donald Trump was turned out to be in a hundred percent top shape Um notot fit for office. don't think it would don't think it would be improving his performance. U one percent, two percent, no percent. I think that he I think if he had if he is if he was like ph a physical specimen at whatever his age is to be eighty years old this weekend, if he was a physical specimen if he had the the if he had the, the constitution of a forty year old He would still be as bad of a president as he is right now respect. I agree. I her. but it is fd. it is fking weird. Exactly. It would be good to know if he's dying Speaking of this weekend, we'd be remiss if we didn't discuss the massive sporting event bringing Americans together in a celebration of our shared purpose and values the UFC sponsored cage match that Donald Trump is staging on the White House lawn for his eightieth birthday on Sunday. A group called Public Integrity Project is suing to try to stop the event Nm not sure they'll succeed. According to the AP, the government attorneys revealed in legal filings that the UFC and other private groups have already spent sixty million dollars on the event. That is the government, saying that. They did not say how much the federal government has shelled out, but wrote that seven different agencies are involved and have, quote allocated significant resources and manpower Most of this is, you know, UFC is footing the bill for most of this and various sponsors. But I don't know, you have seven different government agencies involved that's going to be that's going to be directing some some time and energy and resources that could be going to the business of the people, I suppose. Again, I point you to the real grift that's happening is inside the guts of the federal government. Like there will be an accounting for it at some point, but this We should assume the very worst about what they're doing and the way they are reappropriating resources to serve Donald Trump's massive ego. The only thing I can hold out hope for, John is first of all, I believe the cage match is on Sunday. Is that right Wigh ends are on Saturday. I'm looking at the forecast for Washington, DC. ninety two degrees and thunderstorms. I know I saw that I saw that. because when I thought I was going I was saying it was going to be that hot. It was a chance of thunderstorms. I don't know if the chances increased, but fifty five percent chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. You know, I don't want I don't notice anything that's going to trigger any kind of karma because forecast for Chicago on Thursday at the Obama Library opening, one day in Chicago, it's supposed to rain Heily Yes, but is there an outdoor cage match happening at the y library that I'm unaware of.. David Axelod us is Jack Loo Oh, have you seen the pictures of the of the octagon? Yes, dude, it looks like six flags. It's so bad. Mikeest say were like mom, that'sI. You got tricked. And I was like wasn't on theiteouse If it wasn't on the White House line, I'd be like, that looks pretty cool. B And I'm not like a UFC fan, but like that looks pretty cool. But I'm like, this is on the south line of the White House. It's also extremely funny and just talk about the symbolism U They built a like an eight hundred foot Pagon, cage right next to the rubble of the East Wing. Yeah you could st. Exactly John, the wes are not happening at Wales are happening at the Lincoln Memorial. No I looked into this Is it came cancellled? No the Wans so this was the the organization that was filing the lawsuit got in trouble for this because they put it in the filing too, But the press conference is being held at the Lincoln Memorial and the Wans are happening at the ellipse. Oh there fantastic. So there you go. looves the ellipse for all important things. I don't know. I am not a fan of this, but it is the country I wanted this president and some people in this country will be served by this gruesome spectacle, and perhaps they will enjoy it, or perhaps Mother Nature will have the last laugh and shoot down bolts of lightning to the south lawn of the White House preventing the cage match from happening on Donald Trump's birthday The thing that honestly the only thing that the story that has bothered me the most about this is the hot troops only story And for for all the service members that have got invited that have to pay first of all, they have to pay their own way to get there. And then they have to meet a certain like weaight requirement And one defense official told CNN. that they wanted to make sure they picked people who were going to look good on television This is so fun. How'd you go. When you install a men's grooming expert as the Secretary of Defense This is the kind of stuff that you get. I wish he was just doing TikTok videos. about How to keep salt and pepper hair. looking dignified. But alasead But aless he's running a war in Iran. Good stuff. When we come back, you'll hear my conversation with CNN's Ron Brownstein We will talk about the Senate map, the House map and all kinds of other good stuff. The Hot save America is brought you by Walmart You know, we talk a lot about finding a job, but what about building a career Walmart is actually making that happen for their associates by investing over a billion dollars in training and education. And the proof is in the numbers. Last year, more than one hundred thousand associates earned promotions add in great benefits like four hundred one K matching and paid parental leave and it's clear. Walmart isn't just a place to work, it's a place to grow. Go see for yourself at walmart. com slash grow at Walmart That's walmart d. com slash grow at Walmart Ron Brownsein, welcome back to P of America Hey, good be you, John U so since you're one of the smartest political analysts out there, wanted to check in Get your thoughts on the primaries we've had and the midterms ahead of us Maybe we can start big picture. Where are we right now, a little less than F months til the midterms How does this political environment compare to where we were in twenty eighteen, which was the last midterm when Democrats faced an unpopular Donald Trump and did quite well. That is a really good place to, I think, the right point of comparison. And I think This election, to me, is just shaping up as the classic collision between the irresistible force and the immovable object, and both of them, both the irresistible force and the immovable object are getting stronger as we go. The irresistible force is the widespread disapproval of Trump and dissatisfaction with the economy. You know, if you go back to twenty eighteen in the exit poll, Trumps approval rating was forty five percent U It is not going to be forty five percent in all likelihood on election day this year. I mean, it may not be as low as it is now in the igh thirties, but you know I think at best, it's going to be in the low forties. So Trump is probably going to be more unpopular today than he was on election day in twenty eighteen. Second, you know, in the twenty eighteen AO poll, two thirds of voters described the economy in positive terms You know, even as Democrats were winning forty plus house seats, it's probably going to be two thirds describing it in negative terms this time So I think, you know if you think of those kind of attitudes as the motor that drives the wave, there's every reason to believe the democratic now theratic overall democratic performance will be even better, I think, than the wave behind them is even stronger than it was in twenty eighteen. I willll put one caveat on that in a minute So like the wave looks to me like it could be very high. Democrats won the popular vote by eight and a hal points in twenty eighteen when Trump was at forty five. Could they win the popular vote by more if he's at forty one or forty two and two thirds of the country is dissatisfied with the economy? I think that's possible. Now, the other side of the equation is the immovable object, which is that to a greater extent than in twenty eighteen, this election is being fought out on Republican terrain Right? In twenty eighteen, you had what, about two dozen House Republicans in districts that voted for Clinton two years earlier. Now before they redistricting, you only had three. And even kind of more broadly. in twenty eighteen, you still had the remnants of all of these House Republicans who were holding on In suburban white collar districts outside of the south, even in the south, I guess, a couple, mostly outside of the south that had been voting Democratic at the presidential level since Bill Clinton. And Democrats really cleaned them out in twenty eighteen. Three quarters of the house seats that Democrats won in twenty eighteen had more white college graduates than the national average. It was kind of the bookend. I look at twenty eighteen as the bookend of twenty ten In twenty ten, the Republicans cleaned out the last blue dog Democrats who are surviving in heavily blue collar rural districts that have been voting Republican for twenty, thirty years and they kind of wiped all of them out And then Democrats in twenty eighteen did the same with the kind of suburban what in the nineties, they used to call gypsy moth Republicans. So as a result, there really aren't that many more of those white collar seats left to win in twenty twenty six. There are a few. There's Mike Lawler, there's Tom Kane junior. there's Don Bacon seat, there's Brian Fitzpatrick, But most of the seats that Democrats are targeting this year And the House in very distinct counterpoint to twenty eighteen, have more non college whites than the national average. And of course, that is a real challenge. I mean, you know, you look at districts in Ohio and Iowa, and Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that is a big chunk of what Democrats are trying to win back. and most of those seats are more heavily white blue collar than the national average. sameame story in the Senate, by the way. eightight of the ten seats that both sides consider them the most competitive in the Senate. I reote about this a few months ago, have moreue collar whites than the national average. And you know, if you kind of look at it by presidential vote, you have maine And as we've talked about before, let me just take one step back. You know, Senate results and presidential vote are just much more correlated than when even you got started in this, much less me. You know, there are twenty five states that voted three times for Donald Trump Republicans now have all fifty of their senate seats, which obviously makes it tough. I mean, if you're kind of seating fifty seats at the start, you know leaves you a pretty narrow pathway. There are nineteen states that voted three times against Trump. Democrats have thirty seven of their thirty eight with Susan Collins as the last exception. And then there are six states that have flipped back and forth at any time in the three Trump races. and Democrats now have ten of their twelve Senate seats. And that is very much the way I look at the Senate. The job for the Democrats is first of all to beete Susan Collins to get rid of the last Republican left in the thirty among the thirty eight in the states that voted three times against Trump. They've got to defend two seats in the flip states, which is Georgia and Michigan But ultimately, they have to break into not only in the near term, but in the long term because it's obviously not, you know, it's not not a plausible strategy to give fifty seats away at the start. They have to break back into the Trump three time states. So what do you got? You have North Carolina, which he only won narrowly. But after that, every other state they have to win in the Senate, Trump won by double digits two years ago which is not easy. So that's probably in order You know, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa Right. And if you don't win Maine, if you don't convert Maine, and you and I are in different places about Maine, we should probably talk about it at some point. If you don't convert Maine, you got to win three Senate seats in states Trump won by double digits two years ago. And that's asking a lot. So overall, I would say Democrats, the conditions are more favorable to Democrats than in twentyeen. with the exception that you've had the Biden presidency in the middle and that definitely took you put a dent in the Democratic image, that matters. I think the party outside of the White House, their image matters less than the performance of the president in the midterm. But nonetheless, it's there. coonditions should be overall better for Democrats, but the Republicans have built stronger defenses both in terms of the inherent nature of the of the playing field and also the gerrymandering that's happened. Yeah, let's some That's a very good summary of where we are right now. So thank you. Let's dive into Maine. That was my next question anyway, because you know, we had the primary this week Also, as you mentioned, you've been sounding the alarm about the electoral risk Democrats are taking with Graham Platner. and since everyone's heard enough of my not quite as worried view I want to I want folks to hear a good smart counter to give you want to give them the full word of view. Look. Susan Collins, as I say, is an anomaly or a unicorn, whatever you want to call her. As I said, she is the only Republican left In the nineteen states that voted three times against Trump. thirty seven to one. She's the one. In Trump's first term, she was the only Republican senator or challenger Acording to the exxit polls who won in a state where more people disapproved than approved of his performance as president. She was also the only Republican Senate incumbent or challenger to hold their Democratic opponent to less than eighty nine percent of the people who disapproved of Trump. Sarah Gideeon in twenty twenty, only won seventy one percent of Trump disapprovers. Every other Democratic Senate candidate during the first Trump term won at least eighty nine percent of Trump disapprovers. You know And that relationship is not getting weaker generally. Jay Jones in Virginia won eighty nine percent of Trump disapprovers. Cheryl and Spamberger won ninety three percent, ninety four percent of Trump disapprovers. There was a poll from the University of Massachusetts at Lowell even before the latest rounds of revelations about sexting and The New York Times story about his relationship with former partners that found Platinner winning seventy four percent of Trump disapprovers in Maine. That is Susan Collins' superpower. She is able to get to a greater extent than any Republican anywhere. She is able to get any other Republican anywhere. She's able to get voters to disapprove of Trump to vote for her, especially older women. And the key to her, why did she win in twenty twenty in a state where Trump's disapproval on the ex poo was fifty eight percent. And obviously Biden won the state by I think nine nine points. The reason is because she ran really far ahead of Trump among older white women Both in the exit poll and the AP votecast are two major sources of voter behavior at the state level Collins A Gideon ran fifteen points behind Biden. among women forty five plus. Now when I started that doing this in the eighties, things like that happened They don't happen anymore. You do not have a major demographic group that veers off by fifteen points between how they view the president and how they view other candidates. You know, That's why Republicans have all fifty senate seats in the twenty five states, Trump won three times. notot because they're all great candidates.'s those attitudes really shape things. So Platinner seems to me I would not you cannot say Platinner can't win that in this environment Trump is weaker than he was in twenty twenty. hisis disapproval is now over sixty in Maine and Collins is weaker than she was in twenty twenty because, you know, Brett Kavanaugh in the interim between twenty twenty and now voted to overturn Roe V. Wade after she stood on the Senate forum promised she would not. He would not. So I would not say Platner can't win. I will say that Platner makes it a lot harder than it has to be because his vulnerabilities, I think, map ominously over her strengths. I mean, I look at older white women as a prime audience to be worried about all of the things that have come out of them. And I also think and I haven't talked about this as much I think his strengths are less relevant in maine than they might be elsewhere. I mean, if the guy's strength is that he, you know and it does seem legit that he can mobilize a lot of younger non voters, kind of a Trump thing in reverse, Andy, Maine, I mean, this isn't Georgia or Texas or you know even Wisconsin, where you have a huge pool of non voting young people. You have like the second or third, oldest electorate in the country. I mean, your job, the job of a Democrat in Maine in twenty twenty six. is not to mobilize new voters It's not even to persuade a majority that Trump and the Republicans are taking the country in the wrong direction because a majority, a big majority already believe that in Maine. The job of the Democratic Senate candidate in Maine is to reassure The majority who already think Trump And the Republicans are taking the state in the wrong direction, that it's okay to vote against Collins and that you are a reasonable alternative. And I think Platner, again, he could win, but he introduces a tremendous amount of risk in that equation that doesn't need to be there. He hasn until july thirteenth. I don't know if you've talked about this. under Maine law, they can't push him out at this point But he has until july thirteenth to step aside. And as I pointed out in a column this week, theyve they have really good candidates in the gubernatorial primary. Four candidates got over twenty percent of the vote in the first round, including three who have very broad support on the left. And I do think that if there are More negative stories that come out Or if simply there are a lot of polls that raise You know, worrying direction between now and then H. it would be in the interest of Democrats to kind of look at some of those alternatives. becausecause I do think and this will really get the mailbag, I do think that the forces that are the national forces behind Platinner, particularly the Sanders Warren orbit are so determined to prove that their model is the right model for how Democrats come back that they have lost sight of the actual human being that they are betting on and the place that they are testing it and they seem to me more interested in beating Schumer in the primary than in beating Collins in the general. It's funny. Um I wouldn't say my bullishness. maybe not I would say I'm not as bearish as you. and the reason is actually has nothing to do with thinking that the Sanders model is the is the model or this is the proving ground for that. I actually think that Just to talk about Collins, right She has so she's never been this unpopular, right She's never run. competitive race with a midterm electorate whichich is like a whole new thing, as you know, right? And so we keep talking about the Sarragedian example, but the Sarrageedian example is in twenty twenty when you've got a whole presidential electorate, which as we know and we've talked about and the audience probably knows by now is just in this era better for Republicans, right? Because you bring out more of the non college, less engaged voters Generally speaking, midterm elections, the electorate is two, three, even four points more college educated than the presidential. the righty is presidential And then you have and then you have a midterm electorate. So now she's running in her first competitive midterm electorate. and one that is this favorable to Democrats and the state has moved left since twenty twenty And I think in their in twenty twenty four, main swing right maybe the one of the smallest, if not the smallest in the country I those are all the reasons as I say. he can win. There's no question he can win. There's any dt given the overall climate, given the specific as you say Collin is weaker than she was in twenty twenty Trump is more un popular than he was in twenty twenty in Maine. So you can't say that any Democrat can't win. It's just that this is much more of a jump ball than it should be because of his unique vulnerabilities. I kind of like Are you surprised weak Mills was and still is in all these. I mean even that poll, there was a poll out right before the primary where I think that Mills it was like the first poll where Mills did slightly better than Platner against Collins, but still by only like one point, two points. Like I don't get how that is Mills doing that poorly and Gideon doing that poorly also makes me think like what is it about those candidates who seem like they should fit the older women in Maine sort of voter model that you were talking about Yeah. I mean, I think I, you know, I I'm not an expert on Mills's relationships in the state, but there's no question she's conflicted pretty consistently with a lot of the same liberal groups in the state that are that are promoting Platner. And, you know, would one of the other alternatives in the governor race have done better against him in the end than Mills did? I think I think that's, you know, I mean, Hannah Pingree, former spepeaker of the House Troy Jackson, Bernie endorsed in the governor race, former Senate president and then Shina Beels, who was is now the seecretary of state, who was kind of the sacrificial lamb against Collins in twenty fourteen, when she was much younger and at that point, I think had only been the head of the state ACOU. You know, about The thing about Mills is the thing I felt about Mills was that if she got to the general election, it wasn't clear to me what Collins would run against her on. Like if she was one point ahead now The about the thing about Platner is he gives them a lot to work with. and it may not prove thispositive. It may be that everything else is sufficient. But it introduced you know to put him over the top, But it introdued a level of risk that I think is just unnecessary. and I think just like I said, feel like Many of the national forces in particular that are pushing Platinner are just so determined to show that this is the right way for Democrats to win that they are not willing to acknowledge, A, this may not be the right place to test the theory, and I'm not sure it is. But B, you know, like candidates are not just Like on It's like baseball. You canll be the greatest prospect in the world. You actually got to go out and do it. And and the reality is that he is presenting them with, they are just powering through and people say, well, you know, switching to Kamala Harris didn't work that well late in twenty four. I would say it worked out better than trying to stay the course. likeike I'm not sure that Alysa Slotkin and Ruben Gaieego and Jackie Rosen wouldn't say it worked out pretty well. But this is I was thinking about that To me, between now and july thirteenth The um easier scenario in some ways is if there are if like a ton of really damaging stories or even one story that's much more damaging comes out and suddenly you see poles where he's down five, six, seven, eight, right? Then it becomes like fairly easy, not easy, but easier for Democrats in Maine, which it would have to be to like go to the campaign and try to convince them to drop out I think If there's like a few polls showing it tight or he's a point or two behind and then there's no big stories or maybe just one kind of in the middle story sure, then it's really hard to go to someone who did better in the primary than Sarah Gideon did when she was facing two kind of no names in twenty twenty and say, okay, you got more votes than the last nominee against Hussan Collins, but now we're going to make now we should push you aside because we're worried. like that to me is the tougher. that introduces another that introduces risk that I think is greater maybe than the risk we have right now To the extent it is Republicans and not the media who has access to more damaging information, they're not going to put it out before july thir. Certainly not. But it feels like the media would get there. I don't know, but On their own Uh, you know, look, like Ike like we keep saying, he can win There's no guarantee he's going to win. And he he giv he gives her he gives her an opportunity to play the card she's played before. I mean, it's it's, you know, I mean, it's it's it's you know, and and like like like you saying, you know, the if you don't if you don't win Maine, you got to win three out of four in Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Iowa I mean, that's asking a lot I mean, in the long run, Democrats have to start competing again in these heavily blue collaar Trump three time states. You know, flipping and maybe the war goes on, gas prices stay high, Trump stays under forty. likeike if Trump stays under forty, yeah, I could see them flipping three of those four conceivably. But if he gets back to the low forties, which I still would bet on on election day, that you know, that's asking a lot to win three of those four states. Well, let let's leave Maine and talk about those four states like I think you sort of ordered them earlier quickly, but I would just love like you know, you have financial decisions if you're the the Democrats, like Texas is a veryy expensive, very big state to compete in. Alaska, Iowa, not as much. Ohio is obviously they're going to go all in in Ohio. How do you look at those four states in terms of feasibility in flipping them And so you got North Carolina, which looks pretty good for Democrats now. I mean, I think Republicans could end up pulling the plug there. So like to me, as I said to you before, like in Trump's first term Susan Collins is the only Republican who won in a state where according to the exit poll, more people disapproved than approved of his performance. So if you're thinking about Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, they're all probably going to be right at the tipping point, either he's either going to be slightly above fifty or maybe more likely below fifty. I, Was it the argument that Lakeacia Jane and my former colleague at the Atlantic Jerusalem, They tried to use their polling to project Trump's approval in all fifty states. And they had him seven points or more negative in all four of those states. And if that's the case, Democrats have a shot in any of them Now, if you're going to rank them, I think Peltola is an unusually good candidate. Alaska has kind of unusual population dynamics. It really doesn't have a huge white blue collar population. So I think Alaska is the strongest. By conventional measures, you'd have to say Ohio is the second. I mean, you know, Ohio is a big blue collar populationss like fifty, fifty one percent of the electorate will be whites without a college degree, even in a midterm year. Now maybe that will go down to forty nine this time. And if you look at Sherred Brown When he won in twenty eighteen, he won forty five percent of non collllege whites going to the exopo. When he lost in twenty twenty four, he won thirty five percent of them. So he doesn't have to get all the way back to forty five, but he does have to get somewhere north of forty, probably to win. That is possible. I mean, you know, one thing we should have said before when I was talking about the irresistible force Not only is Trump's overall approval rating down, it is well below where it has been among those non collollege whites. So like even in twenty eight So you, he won two thirds of whites without a college degree in all three of his races. Even in twenty eighteen, again, according to the exxo poll, his approval rating among non collollege whites was sixty one percent. Now, in every national poll, it is right at fivety fifty Either and usually slightly below fifty fifty at best fifty one, forty eight, something like that. It's like the best. And then there have been polls where he's been as low as forty six among non college whites. If that's if he stays there tntill November, Sherred Brown can win. I mean, you can win. and people should take into account that when I say Trump is basically at fifty fifty among non collllege whites nationwide, well, that includes evangelical Christians, most of whom are non collllege whites and are heavily concentrated in the South. There aren't as many of them in Ohio So if Trump is at fifty fifty among non collllege whites nationally, he's probably going to be below fifty fifty in Ohio, which makes it possible for Charred Brnd right now And this is like what I was saying about Maine, Sared lost in a presidential turnout year where where you have a greater share of non collllege whites coming into the electorate than you do in twenty eighteen when he won, which was, you know, a midterm year and then you have fewer none college whes as a share. And I think I think Trump's approval will be lower today than it was in twenty eighteen in Ohio you know, the difference is Sred's been around the block a little, so there may be a little tread off the tire in terms of how voters are looking at them I kind of feel like that's going to be the tipping point. I mean, if Democrats don't mess up Maine it's either Platinner steps aside for someone more electable or they kind of stabilize things and are able to just pound. Do you really want to get Donald Trump another vote to put another Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, which seems to me their best argument? Then you look at Ohio and I'm sorry, Iowa and Texas. Iowa is Ohio, but even tougher because in Ohio, roughly twenty percent of the voters are non white and in Iowa, it's only like eight or nine. The non college whites are more like fifty six, fifty seven percent of the vote in Iowa compared to like fifty, fifty one in Ohio. and more of those non collllege whites in Iowa are evangelical Christians than they are in Ohi. So like by every measure I can't see Turk winning before Brown wins. like if If Turk wins The wave is big enough that Brown is going to win Texas is intriguing, right? I mean, you know if you if you look at again, like I love how you started with twenty eighteen, Beto is in twenty eighteen versus Ted Cruz, Beto'Rke is kind of the template for any kind of competitive statewide race for Democrats in Texas. Since then, the state has added three point a half million, I think is the number new voters And almost all of them are people of color. It's like ninety percent of the new voters and their metro, right? I mean, they're they're like they're in those four big metros Ba won the four big metros, didn't win them by quite enough. Now, so you know, Richard Murray, who I love, a professor emeritus at the University of Houston beenew in Texas politics since, you know, before any either of us, he says that if all the groups, all the major groups in the electorate Non college whites, college whites Latinos, black, Asian all vote the same way they did in twenty eighteen, but vote in the numbers they are present at today B would win Right So but the problem is the problem is can you really get back to where Bet was among Latino voters, which was the low sixties? You're probably you're going to Trump Trump won Texas Latinos in twenty twenty four, which is kind of remarkably won like probably fifty five percent of them. That's not going to happen Talo Rico' is going to win them Is he going to get back over sixty You know, I mean, there was another poll out yesterday that Sienna poll only had him at like fifty two. I don't think it's going to be that low, but is it going to get back to sixty? I kind of feel like the ballgame in Texas and in Texas, you know, a very large share of the non collollege whites are evangelicals, The fact that Talo Rico you know is a seminarian is not really going to help because he's a different kind of seminarian. I mean the you know Texas Blue collar, evangelicals do not want to hear that God is non binary. although seems like as a you know, seems like a perfectly defensible argument. I think the key is going to be can you get a few points more out of the suburban college educated voters around Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. Beto got like forty four or forty five percent of college whites in twenty eighteen U canan he can Teler Rico push that up to forty seven, forty eight against Paxton? You know, the other the other dynamic about Paxton is, I mean, I forget which ones you probably you might remember, but out of Slotkin, Rosen, Baldwin and Diego, the four Democrats who won and states where Biden lost Several of them did not get more votes than Harris It was just Republicans skipp The Senate race And that You know, it's hard to see a lot of Texas Republicans voting for Palo Rico. It's not hard to see a few of them voting for Abbott and skipping Paxton or S skipping Paxton stipping down Abbot. You can squint and see how this works where like some of them leave the Senate race blank He gets up he bumps up his numbers in the suburbs by a little few more after than Beto did. And then he gets that Latino number Maybe if not all the way at sixty In the Yeah fifty eight and then that's enough. Yeah. byy the way, as people point out all the time, if they are a larger share of the vote than they were in twenty eighteen, Latinos, you can get a bigger net vote out of that community even with a smaller share. You don't have to match the share. But matching the share would help. I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think Democrats can get back to sixty two, sixty three, maybe Among Texas, which I was down in South Texas a few weeks ago. And you know there's a lot of economic discontent. There's a lot of ice discontent. And I think you know my CNN column for later this week, tomorrow's news today, I think subtraction is going to be a bigger issue in this election than addition. I don't think you're going to add a lot of new Democratic votes either with new voters coming out Or with Republicans who voted for Trump in twenty four switching to vote for Democrats. But you could subtract a lot of Republican votes. I mean, Trump's, according to one of the stats' kind of unveiling in this column later this week, among the Hispanics who voted for Trump His approval rating now is sixty six percent, right? That is not so good. Am all remember all of the focus on the non college non white voters and how this was kind of the, you know the augers of the realignment, hisis approval rating among non college non whites who voted for him is sixty eight percent. Among non college non whites who didn't vote in twenty four, his approval rating is twenty percent Yeah, you I saw that in the New York Times Sienap poll. It was those numbers were the. Yeah. Aong non voters in the New Yor Time Sienna poll, among non voters in twenty four, people either skipped it or who have become eligible since. he's at twenty one seventy one in Javapa So you know, I'm not sure You know, this is twenty eighteen was another thing that was unique about twenty eighteen is you did have this enormous surge of new voters. Catalyst says thirteen percent of all the voters in twenty eighteen had not voted before. Census says turnout in twenty eighteen was ten points higher than in either of the Obama midterms. It was fifty percent as opposed to forty percent in the Obama midtermss. So there was this surge of new voters That's where I think the Biden experience is going to really hurt. I mean, because, you know, if you were a twenty one year old in twenty eighteen, had you had Obama as your counterpoint to Trump And it was like, yeah, got we passed universal health carere or we did this, or we did that. Now you got Biden. And you know, whatever Rightly or wrongly, most Americans think that was not a successful presidency. So at a point where Young people in particular are very negative on Trump but are also pretty negative on what they remember out of Biden. I don't see that big surge that Democrats had in twenty eighteen. Repeating itself. What I do think is a very clear and present danger to Republicans is that the voters in their coalition who are disappointed with Trump, some of them are going to switch to voting for Democrats. But I don't think even many Democrats are expecting too many of them. like only only six percent of voters in twenty two, according to Pew voted for a house candidate from the party opposite that they voted for president in twenty. It's not that big anymore. The real swing voters are the people who cycle in and out of the electorate. And they express their discontent by staying home. And I think that is a real risk for Republicans everywhere. But Texas is a very good place where you could have a lot I can see A lot of those Latino first time Trump voters in South Texas just like, you know, ye, sitting out. No. All right, well, we'll leave it there. All right. Thank you for thank you for joining and making us smarter and everyone check out Ron's column at CNN and I know you got a column at Bloomberg as well. so you're all bit a little bit about Grain Fl or Bloomberg Yeahah. It's great take it It'll be great. So everyone take a look at that and thanks again for coming by We'll do it again before we get closer to November Absolutely good to be with Joh That's our show for today. Alex, lovevely as always Let do the pod with you. You twoo in a row, man. I know. But I gotta say, this show's a lot of work. Dan Pfeiffer needs to get his butt back into the chair, huh? This is like the longest Dan's been away from politics. I wonder if he's somewhere just like getting the shakes or hives or something Dan Dan, send up two flares if you can still hear us We love you, Dan. We miss you, Dan. We do. Thank you for letting me warm the mic while you. Thank you for warming the mic. You' have been a f an honor and a pleasure, my friend to help us. navigate these choppy insane waters of our American democracy. Have a good weekend, everyone. loveove it. We'll be back