Deep Dive into Red State Races

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So if your money is stolen due to identity theft, they've got your back If you have personal expenses while resolving identity theft, like paying for travel or extra childcare, Lifelck has your back Need coverage for lost wages because work had to take a back seat throughout all this? You guessed it. Lifeelock still has your back. Plus, there's coverage if you need to pay fees for lawyers and experts to resolve your case. Don't face the burden of identity theft alone. Protect your future and finances with Life Lock Join today. visit lifeelock d. com slash heart and save up to thirty percent your first year. That's lifeelock. com slash heart for thirty percent off. terms apply Welcome to Pods of America. I'm John Fabre. I'm Dan Piffer. Happy fourth. We decided to record a little early ahead of the long weekend. Long week for me, I'm heading to Maine for vacation J see if I can get some of those Harris Collins voters back on side You know, you pod boys, saying nice things about Platinner, I'm just going try to go to Maine and get it done myself, you know? If there's any group we have a lot of sway with, it is older women, Susan Collin voters ad men I mean I'm telling you, I'm going to where I'm going, that is the place right I under Emily's been on the ground for weeks. I know. She the grandnner's numbers. I know. I'm bring in reinforcements. Whatere are you guys have to for the fourth? Areay sticking around? We're sicking around we' having much many people over Very chill forth. You're not patriotic but Je for Forth. You're not going to check out the California exhibit at the Great State Fair in D.C and listen to Trumps speech We are going to listen to Trump speech. We're gonna to together're going around the TV. We're gonna to watch it together as a family as one as anyone who loves America would do. Perfect As the kids will always remember how they spent their the Americaass two hundred fifty with their half century old dad I mean I heard that. I heard I heard that's what your kids are calling you. That's what's what Kylie keep saying to me. She's like, Dad, you're now a half a century old. That is brutal. That hit me hard M Mainly because I'm only a couple years away, but will trust me, I will make sure that your children by you about centry in five years or. Yeah, you could probably get Charlie going on that now. All right. We got some news to cover before we take off for the break. Trump making two billion dollars since taking office The right wing freakout over birthright citizenship, more progressive primary wins in Colorado, and you and I are gonna nerd the hell out over some brand new New York Times polls on all the biggest Senate races But first Let's talk about how our president is celebrating America's two hundred fiftieth birthday by jumping on his brand new Qatari palace in the sky formerly known as Air Force One, which touched down in the Dakotas for the opening of Teddy Roosevelt's presidential liibbrary and a firework show at Mount Rushmore even though people there We're worried it might start a wildfire H Vepiest thing ever. Trump then jets back to DC for what he's calling, quote, the most spectacular Trump rally of them all which will reportedly include over eight hundred thousand fireworks in an attempt to set the Guinness World record Trump seems to be going for another record as well. He said, quote, It's going to be approximately one hundred and seven degrees out, and I'm going to make a really long speech just to show that I can do anything That is the American spirit. That is the American sppirit. This is apparently why the fireworks aren't starting until after eleven PM Eastern U veryery cool, very considerate. Trump's really been on one this week. Here he is talking about And two. Heddy Roosevelt at the opening of the museum this week. Theodore Roosevelt, he had great passion The cololonel they called him was an American man It was really a Great he man. They say it was forty pounds of mus. I don't know how the hell that happenaed? They didn't have modern day drugs. Of course the modern day drugs don't do that either, do they They actually take away the muscle. That's not good. The son was bred. It's genetics, you know, it's like the raceorse theory. They're the only father and son pair to receive our nation's highighest Military Award for Crage above and beyond. And now as I see my two beautiful sons sitting there, I think I'm going to give one to myself one to them and we'll have a threesome, o? I even had a conversation with Theodore Roosevelt. I said, what did you think about the Panama Canal? Do you consider that your greatest achievement? How do you feel? about the fact that the Democrats Gave the Panama Canal away to Panama for one dollar. Keep your nerve and remember the nation comes first, you get through. I know you knew that youing yourself Well, I appreciate those words. thoseose words are fantastic I just wantan to say it's an honor to be with you today We are making a little bit of a tour. brings you b There he is, there he is Jack. AI, Teddy Roosevelt All muscle He and his son, big winners and maybe Trump and his son can also be winners and have a threesome What do you think It's just Doesn't seem to me like Trump fully understands what's happening in the conversation with the AA Teddy Roosevelt? No, I don't know. Do he think he's talking to Teddy Roosevelt Does he understand how an A I chat bot Hologgrram works. Yeah, I'm sure. Should we be doing more of this Should we shouldh Democrats have a AI Ronald Reagan? at our convention to talk about how Trump is not a Republican And there are all kinds things you do hear. Yeah, Trump was deep in the weeds on the executive order to lift the export controls on Fable and Mythos, the Claud LLMs. was he's deep in the weeds there because he has a lot of thoughts on those models. So I'm sure. Speaking of AI, did you see this morning that Open AI offered the U.S. government a five percent stake in the company? Yes. You know that's also an idea on the left By the way that some have proposed I believe Ro Kana has proposed that It is. Now the challengees and Bernie has proposed that too. The idea is the government gets a stake of it And then the government distributes like on the upside of these AI companies, the government distributes that to people as like a L an oil royalty for our age. Of course, the challenge is what happens when Donald Trump is in charge or another Donald Trump is in charge, right? Liked you'd want to have that kind of power in the hands of a president who's into redistribution But you'd have to write you'd have to write a law Yeah that Like like the oil royalties in Alaska where every But that's that's that's all that's neither here nor there. Trump's talking to AI Teddy Roosevelt, talking about Threess with his kids. Uh Do you think under you think he caught that? do you think afterward someone was like, hey, people are laughing because you did talk because the word threesome usually doesn't just mean you and your son's having medals Yeah, I mean, I suspect that Trump as someone who's lived the life he's lived is very familiar with Threesomees You think he's that generous Maybe he maybe I No, It I think that I think three Trump is a sign of a sign of selfishness is my guess Um Here's also Forbearren I know. D didn't make the familiarial threesome Yeah, that kid caught a lucky break, I guess. U Larger question for you How do you think all these Trump organized America two hundred fifty events? are landing with people aren't Mga fans or whiny America hating libs like us. I most people are seeing all this. I kind of presume they're not seeing it. It's just it not it's not really breaking through in any way shape or for, none of it' exciting, none of it's interesting People are pretty busy. They have a million options for how they spend their their limited attention To the extent they hear anything, Trump is Trump has made it all political. And so if there's a whole group of people like people like us will either make fun of it or or ignore it. And then the people who don't really care about politics or don't actively avoid politics will immediately turn it away from likeike you can see a world potentially where a different president does something different that is more in the theoretical spirit of America, that is more bipartisan You know, you could see a world where a Democratic president or even a different Republican president who comes from a different Republican partarty in an alternative universe has on stage The Obamas, the Bidens, the Clintons, the Bushes, and we're you know, basically the Ohama library opening. but You know, I just I went back and looked a lot at like what happened in nineteen seventy six and so much of it, A it happened in election year, which is notable But also just so much of the attention to it, also had a lot to do with the fact that We lived in a world where there were three TV st channels and you had to watch it. and so you couldn't It just it was like beamed into the brainstam Americ people. People did get kind of involved, likeike I saw whole thing about how people decorated their pained all the fire hydrants, re white and blue. Some of them the turn of like very funny like Abbe Lincoln fire hydrants and things like that. But just in this day and age,s like it's hard to get people's attention like that. and Trump is not trying to actually do that. He's trying to make it about himself and that was doomed to fail. Yeah, the attention of the country is pretty much World Cup is America. Yeah, that's like the fiftiet celebration was last night in the World Cup game where everyone came together and one and now wants to throw tea in the pool of the referee who gave us the red card. He gues would be the appropriate colonial response. Find this pool, just dump it with dump it, dumpps some tina. You know,, I've been really into some of like the you know opinion pieces on this. I was like watching that Netflix has a good The American experiment that I Have been watching that? I was watching that. I'm a sucker for like revolutionary war history And but then I was and I was like thinking about it a lot. and I thought I was maybe going to write something about it. I'm like, really? this is just a a small circle of people talking to each other who already talk to each other on substack and other places. way don't do not knock that. Do not knock a small circle of people talking to each other readers and New York Tes readers and podcastm like it is, you know, the people tryrying to get most of the country to pay attention to the two hundred fiftieth anniversary seems like a tall order when Donald Trump is president and everything else is going on I just want to caution you that if your new logic is it's only going to reach a small group of people talking to each other, you're gonna to stop doing all things. Well, I would talk to people about other issues. Okay, F like what am I trying to convince people that this is what America's really about? Yeah, like thats we're all on board. All right A few other Trump items to discuss, lest you think he's trying to make this anniversary all about himself. is reportedly considering an idea described as two hundred and fifty pardons for two hundred and fifty years That's how a person close to the White House described it to the Atlantic in an effort to, quote, reinforce an image he has long sought to cultivate The merciful. Yeah, he's really been working hard on that. I don't know how much progress he's made. The piece goes on to say, quote, the prospect of a mass pardon has set off an international frenzy of lobbying and deal making in which even slight proximity to the president can be monetized. No shit. And speaking of monetizing the presidency, Trump's twenty twenty five financial disclosure just came out and shows that the president of the United States Rked in at least two point two billion dollars last year. while in office with at least one point four billion of that coming from his families crypturrency, business slash Ponzi scheme What better way for presresident to celebrate America's two hundred and fiftieth than by using his office to make two billion dollars f Ponzi scheme and and then also pardon all of his rich criminal friends I must have missed the announcement from the Republican Congress that they will be launching impeachment hearings over this. Did you catch it No, I must have missed it too. I was so busy taking in the sights of the greatreat American State Fair that I might have missed this The two hundred fifty part is thing is so funny because there's a line in the story which says I'm going to read it One advisor said there had been polling that suggested a mass pardon could benefit the president., I caught that. I caught that Wh Where do you think know? How do you think That's Yes. You who commissioned that poll A bunch of criminals or a bunch of people making money off the criminals. Like that's who commission that bll. There is no poll that suggests a mass pardon frankly, anyone, like pardons can be good commuting people's sentences who were have unfair drug sentences, there's good use of the pardon power Even that is never popular A mass pardon is not popular. It's an insane thing. It's something that someone told Trump. in order to get him to pardon people that that has hired this adviser to do. I was honestly trying to think of how the question would be worded to get a good result. and it would be like Do you think the president Um should reduce the sentences of people who've been unfairly imprisoned Yes by a weaponized justice Wongly convicted. Y. If the are you wouldould you approve or disapprove of the president releasing peopleople Innocent people from prison like that That is probably yeah, that probably showed that he was going to give them a little boost Now on the corruption thing, it is I mean, the amount of money Trump's made is Truly unbeliev And the thing that makes it so much worse than it could possibly be and it's hard to imagine it could be worse than that is it's not like Trump just picked a bunch of smart stocks or even got inside information or inside access to some IPO that took off or even did some sweetheart real estate deals. whichich he was trying to say yesterday when asked about it. He was like, well, everyone's profiting because the S andP is up It's like, no, that's not's happen No, that's not exactly what happened. there. And most his money is not in although he does do a lot of day trading Most of the money here is from the crypto money And that is a very specific ponzi scheme run against his most loyal supporters. He took money for He weaponized their adoration for him and their trust in him, got them to buy bogus crypto coins, essentially pulled the rug out from underneath them and sold a chunk of the company to to an Eirati fund, perhaps in exchange for selling America's most valuable technology to the Emiratis The story about this in the Times. As you said, yeah, the cryptocurrency coin created by World Liberty Financial has sunk to less than six cents, a more than eighty percent drop from its peak, generating enormous losses for investors who bought it at a higher price. And Trump made money on all it's not just the value of the coin. He also was making money off the sale of all the coins as well. Yeah, just a total grift I mean, what do you think about this? Like it's I mentioned the Republican Congress because Uh and, you know, we're going to talk about this in a bit with the polls, but it's like, Yeah, people think that Trump is corrupt. Message delivered And but we're not trying to beat Trump in the midterms. We are trying to beat the Republican Congress and these people could do something about it They could be like, hey, the president is profiting off a ponzi scheme. while in office. There's all these kinds of corrupt dealings going on. There's all kinds of foreign entanglements, as you mentioned and potentially foreign corruption, foreign influence that he's working on. nothing. I mean, Tommy and I talked about this a little bit in only Fs yesterday, but I think the corruption stuff is already in it's already price into the baseline In two ways. One, people think Trump always believe Trump was corrupt in some way shpe or form. and they also think most politicians are corrupt. Trump just dips speak a little deeper than everyone else But he is suffering from the full weight of all of these things I mean he's approer he' at thirty seven percent. like How much lower do we expect it to go? And is it just because of the corruption? No Is there one more piece of corruption's going to come out that's going to drive into thirty two But The way I think about all these things is they are all affordability related This is just all the shit he's doing that's not helping you And that stuff hit different when prices were low and it's much worse for Trump when prices are high. And so people do care, maybe not as much as we want them to care. but It does hurt him politically. It absolutely does. And we're already seeing that in the polls. No my point is that we got to get some of that stink on the Republican Congress. Yeah, I mean, there', yes, yes. you see that in because you're right no, I completely agree with everything you said that we can't like We did it. People know that he's a bad president You look poll after poll after poll after poll, like he is losing that argument, but he is also a lame Dg president who is not on the ballot this November Yeah. And there's a question about whether that is putting the stink. We talk about this in the next section. whether that's putting the stink on the Republicans orr taking the stink off the Democrats is the best route to doing that. Right. Plenty of or more likely combination of the two. Plenty of stink to go around S should say that hiring also slowed to fifty seven thousand jobs added Last month, the jobs numbers came out way below expectations and the last two months that they were celebrating course have been revised down. so Not a great economy Uh unless you're Donal Trump and you have a crypto scheme that you're profiting off of. Even the Wall Street Journal, by the way, you see, there's a Wall Street Journal editorial No how did Iiss this about Donal first thing to read about about Donald Trumps corruion which is notable because I know you and Tomy talked about the New York Post did an editorial just criticizing Trump's corruption and now Wall Street journals. So all the Murdoch properties, except for Fox They even said Yowsers. Yowsers, The Wall Street Journal said. The main difference between Hunter Biden's foreign dealings and the Trump projects is that the Trumps are brazenly open about theirs. But there will be political costs for Republicans. If Democrats take back the House or Senate, they will have a field day probing the Trump family deals. Charges of GOP corruption will resound through twenty twenty eight. This will feed the left's class warfare narrative that billionaire oligarchs are getting rich off government Will it feed that narrative I wonder why, probablyrobably because it's a true narrative. That's right. Yes. Would it tell people what's happening? Yes, that's what happened. Anyway, that's from your liberal friends at the Wall Street Journal Pot say of America is brought by Quinces when sumer finally arrives, you don't want to spe precious time agonizing over what to wear. You want have great comfortable clothes to wear in the summer when it's hot, you know? That's why you got to keep coming back to Quintince. They focus on really well made clothes that will become like everyday staples that you use all the time. Quintincez is one hundred percent European linen pants and shirts are breathable, easy to throw on, and the summer upgrade your rotation needs Starting at just thirty four dollars. 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That's drink AG one dot com slash crooked We should also discuss the absolute freakout in Maga World over the Supreme Court's decision to affirm the right to citizenship that comes with being born in the United States as granted by the fourteenth Amendment To the Constitution, after slavery was abolished more than one hundred and fifty years ago, The court struck down Trump's effort to end birthright citizenship via executive order The president's reaction to this was re pretty mild compared to Trump allies like the Daily Wires Matt Walsh who said that America is committing suicide And the fact that his children are having their birthright destroyed quote, fills me with rage so deep I can't describe it John Davis, co founder of the Federalist, tweeted out some potential remedies that include denying entry to the U.S to all female foreigners. All pregnant women. and requiring sterilization. of all foreign visitors prior to entry. And you know who says he's looking into these ideas? Stephven Miller who has been absolutely hysterical about this U T S and C talking about national suicide national self obliteration and quote, a deep knife wound in the heart of the American Republic Um All right, what do you make of the reaction? and specifically, what do you make of Stephen Miller and other White House officials considering This crackdown on pregnant women entering the country. can't believe I to say those words And these people are just disgusting, opportunistic, delusional ghouls It is it's so It is It's just so stupid And it is so Just think of think about this, right? In twenty eighteen, Republican like there is some political in their head I try to like sometimes try to put myself in their heads pretend that they are quasi rational political actors. Like I think Stehven Miller is doing this from a just purely sincere, deeply heldac racial animist. one hundred percent I think other people in the Maga world are looking at this Wh they certainly share some of that racial animus, they're also looking at this politically. and in their mind. I think I think Sean Davis and Matt Walsch are absolutely genuine. Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure., for sure But I, you know, I think they look at this and say We're getting killed on on affordability, all these other issues. What is the one issue where Trump is not twenty thousand leagues underwater and that is border security And so can we move the conversation back to border security? Now The flaw in this plan is that in twenty eighteen, when Republicans were getting ready to lose the mid tters They concocted a fake story about a caravan of MS thirteen members marching to America And the twenty twenty six version of that Is a bunch of pregnant with tourists? It's just so fucking It's it's it's the grossest thing. Yeah. it's just it's so stup. It's just so it's also so stupid Like you really I mean, it's just so painfully dumb. And and gross. It's all dumb and gross, which I guess is kind of the theme of the entire area in which we're living, but the Center for Immigration Studies, which is the far right immigration organization U They because their whole argument here, Trump's argument, Miller's argument is this like birth tourism, right? that people are coming here illegally and then they're having kids so they can be American citizens and then, you know, I guess then the whole country falls apart. But even they say, that this is they they they put birth tourism at roughly twenty thousand cases a year. Um There were there are about three point six one million births in the United States every year. So that is well under one percent. And that number, the twenty thousand is contested by just about everyone because this is a right wing organization. Some people think it's far, far less like a couple thousand But even if you go by their arguments, it is like it is just again, much like their voter fraud shit completely made up argument it is the danger like It seems absurd to us. the danger of it is you take the most egregious, outlandish, rarest, if possibly nonxistent example, and you use it to take down an entire system. Like this is Ronald Reagan and the Wlfare Queens all over again, where this is a way to try to undo birthrightight citizenship, which as you and I talked about on YouTube after the hearing, You know, you have a potential Supreme Court majority or near majority at this point who would suggest that that could be done statutorily Um, and so You kind of understand like I understand the short term political argument there. The longer term thing is to try to make people think this is something that's really happening when it's not actually happening Yeah, and then the flip side of that from picking the most egregious example is basically what John Roberts argued Um about the dissent in this case which was the dessent was like, well Um, The word domiciled should mean where the parents have allegiance to And if the parents were born in some other country and have allegiance to that country and owe something to that country then, you know, then we shouldn't then the child shouldn't be a U.S. citizen. And Roberts was like Okay, well, what about foreign nationals who are legal permanent residents? in this country. and if you're a foreign national, if you have dual citizenship or even if you just have a, you know you're a legal permanent resident in this country and you're still a citizen of another country, you do have some allegiance to that other country, and you are still pay some taxes to that other country. And so now we're saying that all foreign born people in this country who have children here U those children aren't American citizens. and then at that point, Wh who gets to decide who's a citiz Trump and Steh Miller get to decide who's a citizen. They get that power The government gets to decide. That's their argument. And And I think that is the argument that most people in this country would not get behind that your citizenship is determined not by your birth, not by where your parents are from, but by Donald Trump and Stehen Miller. That's right, That's right. All right. Let's talk about what's happening with the people who are trying to bounce these jokers out of office. On Tuesday, Colorado held its primaries and once again, progressive candidates won the day in the first district, which is basically the heart of Metro Denver. twenty nine year old immigrant turned lawyer, turned insurgent DSA candidate, Milat Kurros, beat Diana De Gette a fifteen term incumbent by about ten points. Kiros is a PhD student who lost her job at a prominent law firm in twenty twenty three. After refusing to take down an open letter, she wrote but what she saw as a crackdown on criticism of Israel How did she manage to beat an entrenched incumbent, like Diana Deuette in part because of exchanges like this from a debate in early June And when we have that opportunity again, we have to pass Medicare for all, cancel all medical debt and break up big medicine to drive back competition in the health carere industry. If we do that, then whatever syophant fills the shoes of Donald Trump in the twenty thirty two presidential election who tries to l blame on our most vulnerable communities for a r system, it will ring hollow to the voters. Be as a party, we can point to what we accomplished in achieving healthcare for all and say this is what Democrats achieved for working people. This is how they deliverred. Pretty good veryer good. It's not just policy where Curus has manag to draw a sharp distinction. Here's a question that you got in a local news interview a week ago. aboutb an ad she reposted from a super pC supporting her. I believe that the ad also suggested that centrist Democrats suck shit, Is that your belief as well? Just hearing him J just hearing the interviewer say that was enjoyable. Because of the makeup of the district, Kurus is almost certainly to win the general election And she has said she won'tote for Hiim Jeffreys for speaker if he takes corporate pC money. In the primary for the state's eighth district, northeast of Denver, progressive state representative Manny Rutnell defeated a more moderate Democrat by twenty eight points. He will take on vulnerable Republican Gabe Evans, one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country big frontline race And in the governor's race, the progressive, but not DSA state Attorney General, Phil Weiser beat out Senator Michael Bennett by about twelve points Um K know you and Tommy talked about this on Pods of America Only Friends, but what were your thoughts on Colorado and where it fits in with the New York results and what's to come? I think the hero race againainst the getet fits very squarely in the narrative coming out of New York. We have a prorogressive insurgent candidate running against a long entrenched Democratic establishment figure. And like in New York, the Democrat is not a moderate per se But ist mean? to gets a member of the Congressional prorogressive Caus. Now more moderate than heroes and maybe more moderate than some of the voters of this district that Kamala Harris won by fifty six points. And so this district, I know it's in Colorado, and so we think of it differently. It is just about as democratic as the three in New York. Yeah. That very important one by more than fifty points in all of them Um And it, you know, it speaks to the very real anger that exists within the party towards the Democratic establishment The status quo. and the system. And we talk about what we talk unites in the New York, we talked about the New York races just last week, I think talked about the ways in which anger manifests itself. And Kar' were in a great race. She won by double digits And so that fits in that narrative the other two races D don't fit exactly in that narrative. What is true of the Wiser Bennett race like? I guess it is fair to say that Wiser is a progressive, but Bennett, but he's not that much more nototably progressive then than Bennet And he is not an insurgent. He is the two term attorney general of the state who worked for Bill Clinton and Barack Obama he where he what he did do was he did weaponize that anger against the establishment and one of the elements of it, which is Bennett's been in Washington for a couple of decades now or almost two decades He was appointed in two thousand nine, I believe, to replace Ken Salazar.. And But He had attacked him for not fighting hard enough against Trump, being part of an establishment that let Trump win and then ran on all the things that Wiser had done as a very good attorney general, fighting back against Trump with lawsuits and other sorts of things. And so But it's not, he's not remember the DSA. it's different. He also was someone with as good of name ID and probably more like recent depth of knowledge relationship with the voters than Bett because he's the attorney He's a prof attorney general in the state and Bennett's been in Washington And then the Rotnell Shinon Bird race. is interesting and kind of speaks to how progressive candidates, I think will win in these front line districts if they there running is Rudnell did not run to the left. No ran to ran to the center. He ran to the center. He he even denounnce his own form of veganism And he but he did attack unli unlike Talor Rico, he really, he really was a vegan Yes, he actually was a vegan. He was a PIDA activist in one of the top farm districts in the country and has walked away from that And he sort of he sort of walked away from Medicare for all also. Yes, and being a DSA member But where he went after, which is, I think also interesting notice he went after Bird was on ice becausecause Birred had a vote or two in the state legislature that suggested. I think it was like cooper it was like state cooperationsice cooperations. Yes. Wasn't like she was endorsing ice or or wearing like ice t shirts, but that was a major issue in the race. And so these are all Different, they do speak to the fact that you really don't want to be Picularly in the Wiser and Kos race, you really don't want to be a longtime Democratic establishment figure that like, you you are vulnerable away which you've never been before. And that the The voter anger at the establishment. And specifically the fact that the establishment has not done enough to prove the lives of working people in this country. or enough to beat back Donald Trump and Republicans probably at least what the primaries are telling us, probably even more powerful then anger at Democrats for being too centrist or too moderate Yes, yes. I think the is and it's race dependent, of course. Yeah, but clearly in the in the Bennet race in the Rot mill race Um, and some of the other ones we're seeing, like that is a factor that that is a factor that is uniting all of this uh, all of this anti establishment The ideological thing is hard to because it's talked about one way by the pundits analyzing the race and I think it's viewed by voters in a different way. Yeah Like And I think a big issue in a lot of these races is obviously Israel and Kaza. Yes. And it's played itself in different ways. It It was obviously a central part of Kiros's race. and her political identity and her entry into politics was because of herer views on Israel on Gaza And it does represent the issue where there's the greatest distance between the party establishment and the voter And particularly the democratic primary voter and the most active deemocratic primary voters And I think that issue, it's ideological, it's also a litmus test of sorts in the sense that it says if you were unwilling to, in the minds of voters, all what is what you what everyone is seeing with their eyes. genocide or to react to it in the right way. It says something about who you are and who you stand for And so Like, is it I think it's too easy to say that it's like just people want to say it's all about being more progressive than being not progressive. and it's more complicated that. It's also, I think, more complicated than being just like, who's a fighter? Like you definitely would' want to be a fighter. like not being a fighter is bad. L like Like there aren' a lot of there are't a lot of people waving the white flag for winning these primaries or in elections in general, but it It just I always find myself struggling with this because it's the conversation is more complicated and dynamic than than the terms in which we generally try to have the talk about it and sort of how vt? Because when people say moderate, liberal, progressive, there's like an umbrella over all the issues. and in reality, it's issue by issue for different voters and in different parts of the country and in different races, right? becausecause And these aren't moderates who are losing. with the exception of Goldman against Lander Um and Goldmen particularly the issue where Golden was most moderate was Israel Espiat N not a moderate. notot a moderate. Gget, notot a moderate but been there a while Yes, there's a generational element to this tooip. Coming attractions, you see AOC endorsed Abdul E Sed in Michigan So there's the Michigan primary where obviously the Senate races the Marquee race. I believe there's also like a house race U there as well, Shri Thanadar is a Democratic congressman there who's facing a primary challenge Um, there's a few more. Do you have any do you know the other Yeah there's Deb Wasssm and Schultz., yeah against Elijah Manle and apparently Luther Campbell for Lly of Tw Life Cw which I did not realize until I read N Yor Times Real story of it? Yes. then she's not She is running in a district that's not hers because it was redrawn. so it's a little bit more like the Al Green and Julie Johnson losses earlier this cycle. Stephen Lynch in Massachusetts Stehen Lynch, Massachusetts.,' been there forever. Ed Mark in, Massachusetts.. John Larson in Connecticut Wesley Bell who beat Corey Bush two years ago. This is not a generational one. This is more of a modern progressive one, but Coreory Bush is now and he won in large part because of APEC spending in that race. He was their candidate. And so Coreory Bush is now running for her seat again. That's one in Missouri, which comes up in August, I believe. Yeah So we got we got a got there is plenty of time for Um panic and overly hot takes and unnuanced takes about all of these things going forward. Can't wait Pod sa of America is brought you by blinds d comot There'sversion of your home youven't lived in yet, where the light behaves just as you want, where the rooms feel finished, whereere you sleep until you decide to wake up, not when the sun does. Blinds dot com has spent thirty years making it easy To find the perfect fit with over twenty five million windows covered and fifty thousand five star reviews, you can feel confident, you're in good hands. 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You might as well wake up ready for them Did you see Steve Bannon's comments in playlaybook this morning? AI, Steve Bannon would have said that. Like I could have told you exactly what I was gonna to say. He basically said that Republicans ignore or mock the election of DSA candidates and progressive candidates at their peril. He said, quote, they campaign as anti establishment very smartly. They're not really even campaigning on Trump. He gets a mention, but they're very much like the Tea Party, like old Breitbart. They're going against the Democratic establishment. The reason we have problems is not Trump. It's the people that should be stopping Trump are actually co opted by him. It's very sophisticated clearly resonates. What do you think about that I think I mean it's like an overly faccile, self serving. I mean, basically what he's saying is, like how smart these people are there doing exactly what I did? tenen years ago, fifteen years ago, when likeike a populist, you know I mean, sort of, yeah. Well, no, I think I think with Bannon He's a populist in that in all the wrong ways and all the like xenophobic terrible ways. But he's also a genuine populist on economic stuff that he has like always pushed Trump to actually do populist economic shit and thenrump has never done it in two t. He I think he genuinely believes that populism is the best politics Yes. for the Republican Party. that I agree with, which is why he is been so skeptical of big tech. I mean, he takes a lot of money from billionaires for a populace, but. But his argument was for a populist V Maga to be a populous working class movement. And he sees Democrats trying to do something similar and being willing to take on their own in order to do it So I think it's it's notable. On the subject of DSA momentum I don't know if you saw Axios had a report on Wednesday that Kamala Harris has quietly been reaching out to Zoron Manddani, AOC and the leaders of the uncommitted movevement, indicating that she's making plans potentially for a twenty twenty eight run and perhaps another ideological reinvention What do you think about that So We are getting more and more evidence that Kamala Harris is seriously thinking about running If you'd asked me six months ago, would have a fair amount of money that she was not going to run But she keeps doing things that suggest She's at least seriously thinking about it You and I have heard lots of rumors of her talking to all kinds of different people in the party I think if she is running and is being smart about it, there is no path for her to the nomination that does not involve a massive pivot awayay from Biden's Israel and Gaza policy And so having some conversations about how you would do that and how that would be received by people in the community, particularly when she clearly did not engage with that community enough to fully understand the power of the issue In twenty twenty four is what you would be doing. Will that work? Well, she be able to pull it off? That was going to be my next question How much how much credibility do you think she gets? I think it would depend on how she delivers it and how she if she were to do it, she cannot be She cannot Hed your wors. She cannot worry about Joe Biden's reaction to her words. She cannot worry about whether she's going to anger people in the national security world or the Bidenational security team. She has to do You know, what people around her were saying during the campaign was like this legitimate very real Empathy for the Palestinians and anger at the Israelis that she was never willing to say out loud on the campaign and made a bunch of, I think, really Tactical mistakes, like in the end, The idea that you couldn't give one slot at the convention to a speaker who would talk about about what was going on in Gaza is a just seems so crazy now in hindsight So it would have to be for her to pull it off, it would have to be just as I mean it has to be with a level of authenticity and visceral emotion and legitimate anger at what happened before and that You cannot miss it, but you can't you can't focus group it, you can't hem yourds, You can't worry about Joe Biden. I also think two other things You have to own some responsibility around that. one hundred percent. L it has to be like and not, well, I was vice president of house, so I wasn't supposed to do anything, like a genuine Like I was wrong or I made a mistake or I came to this too late. like And I think that it like She has to demonstrate that she actually cares about this and it's actually angered her and she's actually regretful for how it was handled and not that she's doing all the things she needs to do to check the boxes to become the Democratic nominee that the Democratic electorate wants right now, which is like always my concern about her. You know, it's like I want to I want to know if Kamala Harris wants to run again Why she wants to join again and why she wants to be president And you can already tell like since she since she lost since the campaign, she's like trying out a little like, well, I'm sort of an outsider. I've always been an outsider. And's it's like, yeah, there's anti establishment fervor right now. If I'm going to jump on that train. That looks good. L And I'm not saying that this is exactly what she believes because I don't know U But it could very easily come across like that And my advice to her would be, what do you actually want to run for president? What do you really believe? What's really angering you about the last four years? talkal about that And if people U, you know, if people believe that and people find that persuasive, then you'll be the nominee. and if not, they won't. But like you just donon't look at the Democratic electorate as a I got to get all the pieces together and this is what I have to say and do. And if I press all the right buttons, then suddenly I'll get the nomination. You know, I just and that goes for any candidate for sure. I think she has a particular challenge there. Cant tell you something that I think you're going to find perhaps very disturbing and potentially excit If we follow by the prev the calendars of the previous cycles, one year from right about now will be the first Democratic primary deb M got nauseous. Yeah. It usually happens in the summer of the year prior to the election. It's gonna be so bad I'm just telling you I feel like the opening skirmishes We'll be with that attitude. The opening skirmishes of the great Democratic war of twenty twenty eight have already begun and so far, they haven't been going well I'm still like I mean, we have we have just this this is like the fucking tip of the iceberg. It is going to get so it's going to make twenty twenty look like a fucking feelld day. I don't I'm not sure about that. I'm not sure I'm not saying it's going to be great. I'm not saying's going gonna be great I think the there obviously there have to be points of Diffnce in discussion and debate And those will be painful because a lot of times people agree on so much that you really are Um, slicing the salami so thin to get to that differentnce. I mean as it was with the Obama, other than the Iraq warar on all the issues with Obama and Clinton, like we agreed on a lot of stuff. and so Like policy stuff. like approach of politics was very different, but on policy stuff You know, you're fighting over the individual mandate was the main point of dispute P on that one? Yes. And So Well see. we won't to talk about this now. You have a plane to catch. Okay. about the poll. So we'll keep going. We'll keep going. Speaking of the fall elections, we are now just four months out from these midterm elections. forget about the primary debates. And our America two hundred fifty gift Dan was a full round of Times Sienna Senate polls that were released Wednesday morning, which show Democrats effectively tied, but definitely not ahead in the effort to flip Republican held Senate seats in Alaska. They have Mary Peltola just two points behind Dan Sullivan. in Ohio, Sherry Brown is down three to John Hustead Iowa, Josh Turk is two behind Ashley Hensson in their polls of Maine and Texas released over the last few days. They have Graham Platner up two points on Susan Collins and James Talerico and Ken Paxton tide. The only clear leader is Democrat Roy Cooper in North Carolina, they have him up seven on Michael Watley. There were also new Fox News polls out this week that have Platner down three to Susan Collins and Turk up four on Hensson in Iowa. Any big picture thoughts before we get into some of the specific races These poles are a somewhat painful reality check Yeah of just how tough the Senate map is. When you dig into these, these, you know, as everyone knows we got to winaine we have to win North Cola, we have to win two of Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Ohio. These are Therere Republican states, Trump won those four by at least double digits When you look on the insides of the poles Majorities in all those states think the Democratic Party is too far the left This is a group of people. We think about how much how much fifty three percent, fifty three percent too far to the left. eightight percent too far to the right thirty five percent, neither. Not great You like we talk about how angry people are at Trump, his approval rating in these states is all pretty good. likeike low forties in most cases in The Republicans lead the generic ballot in all these states by at least six points They want Republican control of Senate by at least six points Ecept inain accepted m made. Let' put Maina in North Carolin Yeah, let's put Yeahah, that's which we should talk about that because Roy Cooper's doing well, but the generic ballot in North Carolina is also D deep plus six, I believe, which is crazy. North Carolina is performing like a pretty democratic state in this environment. Yeah, Daus six. they want Democrats to control the Senate It is, I mean, we're Pe are talking lot about how great work Cooper is doing. He's doing great. He's great candidate. But he's actually only overpouring the generic ballot by one point. Yes. And a lot of these candidates in The more Republican states are overperforming the democratic the generic ballot by three three to eight points in some cases you know, and so it's it's the point is We have a shot in all of these races, and that is something that you could not have said six to eight months ago But it is very hard And it's also other than in Texas, Republicans have actually nominated fine candidates Ashley Hinson, John Hughet are generic Republicans And Dance ements like a mayaybe a little bit worse than generic Republican, but basically a generic Republican. We have great candidates. But is it going to be enough? So This is what I was getting at a little earlier is my take, my overall take on these these polls and again New York Times polls aren't perfect, but they're as close to perfect as we have Um, you know, they were off again in twenty twenty four, but like Again, the purpose of a poll is not to nail the exact result. I know that that might sound shocking, but it's true. It gets you within the ballpark and in terms of within the ballpark, no one does it better than the New York Times, which is why we take these seriously and dig in on So my take overall if you set all the candidates aside. We have done a great job persuading people, even people in red states that Donald Trump is doing a terrible job as president I know you said like forty three, it's forty three percent. That's not a great approal rating in red states. likeike I would have, you know, that's that's pretty bad And I know now we're getting used to because some of these national polls have them in like the high thirties. We're getting used to that, but like for any, forty three is bad Um, It's enough to lose, right? if he was running in those states. Um We have not done a good job persuading people that The Republicans in Congress are the primary reason that Trump has been able to make their lives worse That's my larger takeaway because you would think that the Republican, I mean, and the generic ballot, right? Like if you take the candidates out of it, because people want to talk about like this candidate's moreong stronger, this one's weaker If you take all the candidates out of it and you just look at, you know, who do you want to control Congress You asked that question to the voters, which they did. The generic ballot is just very positive for Republicans in most of these red states even even as Donald Trump's approval rating in those same states is well under fifty percent And that's what why do you think that is because people don't like Democrats. Like these all these candidates are doing great They are they are outperforming except minor. Well I want to all the candidates in the four red states. Yes. Yeahah, yeah. I want to put Roy Cooper Platin aside. Okay, great. We'rell be talking about these for now ye. I'd actually put Texas aside in a little bit here, but in Alaska, Iowa in Ohio. Yeah. those are Iowa That's a good model. that's a good group for They are theseese are very Republican states in Iowa in Ohio, the hardest part here. is These where Trump has lost ground is mostly with younger voters and Latino voters And these are very white, very old states. Yeah They are wider than the national average, they are older than the national average. And so there's just less The voters who are leaving Trump and coming to our side there just fewer of them and these it's a more static lecture. Alaska is more confusing. Alaska iss not actually a white state, but it is but it obviously has a very low Latino and black population as a native population, which just is a little bit different U Texas is interesting because Texas is a majority minority state Uh, and has a huge latino vote, which is why Talar Rico is tied in that race. So I was surprised in Texas that the generic ballot is still Republican plus six if most of the gains are younger voters and Latino voters because Texas has plenty of both of those. Yeah, I mean, it' it woulds it's s six in a state that Trump won by thirteen. Oh, okay. Okaykay. I forgot that he was be that much. Yeah. in every one of these states Trump won by at least ele eleven points Pot of America is brought to you by a wild Alaskan company. 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You already know that five days a week, I, Jane Casten, bring you the need to know news and expert analysis on the big stories shaping today and tomorrow Stories like how social media warps our perception of the world and the strange reality of who is signing up to work for IC All in less time than it takes to roast a chicken And now, whatday episodes will be hitting your YouTube and podcast feeds in the afternoons You'll get the breaking news even faster Check out what today. Now dropping in the PM on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts This is Chelsea Handler from Dear Chelsea. I'm going to be honest with you. I am online way more than I probably should be. And between me and everyone else at my house, we've got a zillion screens going on at any given moment. So when my internet slows down, it is a full crisis. That's why having fast, reliable internet that can keep up really matters and why you need optimum famously fast fiber Internet Optimum fiber blows flaky five G out of the water and keeps it cool with the fastest and most reliable speeds that don't slow when things heat up. And right now, they have the deal of the summer, just thirty dollars a month for five years. So don't wait, callall eight eight eight for optimum. Visit optimum dot com or stop by your local optimum store today Famously Fast Fiber for thirty dollars a month for five years. You can't beat it Terms apply, see optimum d. com for details Let's say on those three, Iowa, Alaska, Ohio. One thing on Alaska we should note is that Nate Coh wrote like a separate thing on why the methodology and the Alaska sample might be a little weird and different. and we're not going to nerd out on that, The upside is the Alaska results could be actually better than it appears here Um, Iowa and Ohio, I think more fit the issue with it's just white voters everywhere Um But I do think what's notable is We have all of our candidates in those states, like you said, are outrunning the generic ballot. So the Democrats are ved the Democratic candidates are viewed as less extreme than the National partarty in their're more liked Um, than but than average And the Republican candidates in those states though, are also have a higher favorability rating than average. So I do think in those three states, especially So it's Dan Sullivan, John Hstead, and Ashley Hensson, who's also in Congress. She's not a senator, but she's a rep I think like there's a lot of be there's a lot of work to be done on pinning the last couple years of Donald Trump on those three incumbents who are in Washington. We are in an anti establishment, anti incumbent mood. Those people have been voting for Trump voting for in helping Trump one hundred percent, not stopping him. So it feels like there's just a lot of work to be done there. Is that would you agree Yeah, I would I would say that it's tricky because what are you moving the like in doing that A you Like the question is interesting. You're trying to find those in those states and according to this polls, there are a bunch of disapprovers. don' like Donal Trump who are nonetheless inclined to vote for a Republican candidate for Senate And I think those are the people that you want to get. Yeah. I agree with that. The thing that is the generic ballot is interesting in this race in these races. The question that's more interesting, which kind of lines up the generic ballot, but is Who do you want to control the Senate And Republicans have a big advantage on that this. It's basically akin to the generic ballot. It's eleven. in Alaska They didn't ask a genereric ballot question in Alaska because wass only member of Congress. they just asked about that race. and that's not, I think, immediately transferable to the political environment because it's a known quantity. in Nick Beaggage there. But it You know, that is hard. like they're going to make the race be about you vote a vot for Mary Potolo's vot to make Chuck Schumer and a bunch of DSA people or whatever in charge of the Senate. Yeah. And so you need eleven you need eleven percent of them to say No, we'll take mapntil anyway like that's hard I think Ohio is Ohio is indicative of a larger challenge here whichich is Sherared Brown has a plus eight favorable rating in a Tump state that Trump won by eleven A majority of Ohians Do not think that Sared Brown is too far to the left A although a majority of Ohioans think the Democratic Party is too far the left If the goal is to not be a typical Democrat, Sherred Brown has fucking nailed it. Yep. He is like He has a relationship with the voters They like him. They think he's different than the Democrats. they hate. And he hasn't moderated his views on anything by the way. like he was J just at our house doing a fundraiser a couple of weeks ago and he sounds exactly the same as he has for the last several decades. Well now he's down for. Great. Thankks for telling everyone that. here Yeah But what's interesting is if you compare the results of this poll to the exit poll of the Ohio Senate race in twenty twenty four He is doing exactly the same as he was in that race Exactly. his percentage of the white non college vote, which is a majority of the basically half the vote in Ohio is exactly the same. And he's doing no better Th Kamala Harris did essentially nationally with that. he's gained thirty six percent And what do we do about that? I mean, it's this is this is why Ohio was such a hard Fucking state Now can he convince some like there are places where he can make games. he can make games with? Black voters in the say you can jack up black turnout. he can do better with younger like there are places to get there, but this is why he's done three and this is why these states are so hard because even though he is well liked He is not extreme peopleople He is not getting more votes than he did four years ago Two years ago. That's a hard part about running sha aroundround two years l. You're going to need some people who voted for Houstead to either stay home or voted for Bernie Moray now over Shherred Brown to either change their vote or stay home. And that's not super easy. He was The difference is and this is one of the reasons these polls sort of brought me back down to earth in a serious way is Two years ago, he was running in a presidential electorate, which is obviously going to be harder for a Democrat in a state like Ohio I guess I assumed that a midterm electorate would be better for Democrats. Um than it is in these polls. And I always thought that Sherred's chance and I still do, that Sherred's chance to win this time versus last time. is the fact that He's just going to be running in a different electorate where there's fewer non college educated white voters who turn out to vote in the midterm than there are in a presidential Well, the problem is Ohio is an older white dk college turnout state, and those people voted at a higher rate. And as Nate Coen pointed out in his analysis of the polls A lot of the voters who have left Trump don't vot in midterms And that is going to be more true in a state like Ohio, which is just a like that's interesting. Ohio is just this state that because this seems crazy people who've only been watching politics for the last couple of presidential elections, but prior to that, it was the election, the state that decided the presidency in basically every election And it has been registered and organized within an inch of its life. and One reason why I was felt hard for Obama was we always felt like we could do best in states that have large unregistered populations, potential Democrats North Carolina Florida was I wasing about Texas over the years And Ohio just had there were no there were no new votes to get. Yeah Young people were leaving. and so its it is it's a hard it's a hard say. Can he still win it Absolutely. he can, but I think it just speaks to how like why this is hard. It's doable It's doable in all these states. But these are horor states. And by the way, it's why North Carolina and Texas are states that not just this cycle, but many cycles into the future, Democrats just have to win at some points because You don't run into the same older white voters and no new voters issue in those states because so many people have been moving to them over the last decade, they're becoming more diverse, they're becoming younger. And so on paper They should be states that Democrats have a better chance in than places like Ohio and Iowa long term I am interested in why the generic ballot in North Carolina is so good Well, it is think about it this way. It's a state that Trump won by two points, I think I think two points Yeah. was very close. He bare only woned by less than a point in twenty twenty Yeah. And so if you think the generic ballot is plus seven or eight nationally that kind of gets you to a plus X yeah. Yeah And so there's and thats Roy Cooper there is just, you know, he's just trucking through and not really getting any national attention and the race is kind of quiet and it's benefiting them. probably a state where Getting attention is a bad thing. Well, he doesn't need attention because he has high name ID and voters like him. Right, right So he does not need to be doing TikTok dances. And then before we get to Maine, because Texas is sort of the opposite issue, which is I do think in Texas mbviously, James Hillerary goes a strong candidate. We' talk about that a lot And there's been a shift in the ballot, the generic ballot in Texas. I think it's fair to say that Ken Paxton as the candidate and his problems and issues are hurting him in these polls. Yes. It's a little bit like Maine. That's right. That's right. yeah, that's right It's absolutely hurting. What what is interesting is I find this impossible to believe And it may be the factory that ends linear political television advertising forever, which is the Texas primary is most expensive primary in history Ungodly amounts of money were spent by John Corn and Cornan Super Paxs. Most of that money was spent by the Cornan side, telling people about what a corrupt dickhead Ken Packson is and only thirty eight percent of voters? Dude. That report I hearing a lot about it And yet when you go to Maine, most voters have heard about Grahnd Platinner stuff. Nearly nine in ten voters H've heard about Grand Pler stuff. Now Part of this is Maine is a smaller state much smaller state and I think it's word travels fast there and people know. and And I think that, you know, there's opportunities there as well for Platinner. but I think u It does say something about the Um sort of the gap between when there's a right wing boogeyman and a left wing boogeyman. Yeah, but it is.s the thing is is that there was the entire Republican partarty infrastructure was spending hundreds of millions of dollars to tell people this about Ken Pxton and people still haven't heard it So maybe they were doing it in the wrong way. I think you're right. I think it's TV stuff. It's like and online. Like we weren't talking about all of Ken Paxson's problems until it was you know, time to vote it justt it didn't break through in the last year the way that Graam Plantner stuff broke through Let's talk about Maine So Democratic partarty machinery is getting behind Platinner grudgingly or otherwise. The Senate focused pack majority forward is that with their first attack at on Susan Coins. Let's take a look and we'll talk about the polling thirty years living the Washington DC lifestyle Changes people Getting rich from insider trading should be illegal But Susan Collins doesn't think so Susan Collins is trying to keep it so senators can get rich playing the stock market. They're making millions of dollars. Well we can't even afford groceries and gas. We need to tell Susan Collins to stop the congressional stock trading Okay. What do you think of that ad? What you think that message and then your take on the polling in Maine I want you to do an Oscar style music, play me off the stage if you have to go catch a flight because I honestly could talk about all honestly all these polls for five straight hours, I could do a podcast on every one of the polls. I think I'm good. It is about an hour at LAX, I should make it. Okay. All right. just don't let me miss your flight because I will never hear the end of it from your wife. so she will know now Yes, yes, she willon know. I don't think she listens to this podcast. That's f. But What what am I talking about? Yeah. My wife might tell her that's That is So The logic of that ad because it's always like you look at ad like this ad sucks or the message strategy of this ad iss bad. And then you remember they're very smart people with a ton of data that you and I don't have who make these decisions. So I imagine the strategy of this ad is to say You have a lot of people who voted for Susan Collins in twenty twenty and in previous elections. likeike Susan Collins overperformed She won by nine when Biden was winning maine by almost nine. So like a seventeen, eighteen pointner performance. This is a stunning stat. in two thousand eight She won by twenty three points when Obama was winning Maine by seventeen Wow. She overperformed by forty points. Oh my God. So you' got a lot of people who voted for Susan Collins. So one way to do that is do you want to create a permission structure to them to say I did this thing before. She' changed. so that's the argument But if you look at the Nework Times poll, and it's one poll it's a public po That seems like a bad strategy becausecause in this poll Two thirds of voters think that Susan Collins has good character and morals. So it seems hard, you're going to convince even a lot of people who Gam Plner think Susan Callll is a good person And so it seems hard that you can convince them all of a sudden that she is corrupt And it seems to me your better argument. is to look at the fact that by a margin, if I think twelve points have been left on my head Democratsote people inain want Democrat control the Senate And so there should never be an ad run that is not. Susan Collins standing in the Oval Office holding that naga hat. Yeah that's I that's that's probably the more potent argument, right? Yeah. back hat. Also I think that's why and You see Platner was doing this in his primary night speech and elsewhere. theret Kavanagh vote feels like a potent attack on because it is a place where She was basically, you know, I'm doing what Trump wants me to do, and it's going to be fine, and then it's not fine And that's probably an easier argument than, oh, this person that has that you think has brought home federal money to the state and has good characters actually a cro in that in the po in the poll fifty seven percent of independence is a majority of all Mers, which I believe is the appropriate term think that Suan Chin will be too supportive of Donald Trum Like that is like there is a there is a world for the Platner campaign that existed a year ago, with none of these revelations, nothing that's happened where it's like we are we are running a campaign to change American politics, reshape the coalitions This poll suggests that those days are over Although there are some places where Piner is doing better than Sarah Gideon did, which is why he's winning and she lost by nine points. And also why comparing this poll to the twenty twenty polls of where Sarah Gideon was at this point is not a great idea since those polls were all wrong. Yeah, that that drives me insane. that you cannot even Nate Comb would say that poll was very, very rong O course would you the best thing you compare it to is the twenty twenty exit h because they actually exit pulled this race in twenty twenty and Graham Plat, if you look at that, Graam Planner is doing exactly this one point better than then u Sarah Gideon did with White working class voters, whichich in maine where ninety eight percent of the voters are white, I believe is just working class voters So And basically the same number that Kamala Harris did in twenty twenty four white with working class wh voters according to Catalyst dat Where he is doing better, which is why he is winning and Sarah Gideon was losing by a lot is he's doing much better with young voters And he's doing better with Met. The challenge The the reason why he's not up by more is pretty simple. Susan Collin is getting ten percent of Cala Harris voters Although Pner to his credit is getting four percent older white women, which is exactly what Ron Brownstein has been saying and said on this pod that his biggest concern is I know we all want it like I will stipulate that Graham Platinner is being weighed down in some way, shape or form by the things that have come out. Like that that is definitely true. He is underperforming all these other Democrats are about overperforming the generic ballot. He's underperforming it by Eight points, I think Be it's right. it's even, right? It' eleven. It's nine points. nine under perform nine points. That is significant Now The idea that we were going to be Susan Collins by Ten points or even five points, I think probably was fanciable because there was definitely some Grand P under performance. There is no question about. I am not disputing it. There is definitely Susan Collins overperformance too Well, yeah, and also because you would like his his approval is forty five fifty, which isn't great, but is not is not horrible, right? You can win at forty five percent approval, which is just look at Donald Trump. And hers is forty eight fifty one Hers was much Yeah. I was less surprised actuallyually I was surprised by both of them. I thought that his favorability might be worse after everything. And then I thought hers would but I thought hers would be worse. forty eight fifty one this seems quite good. Uh, if you if you're an incumbent anti incumbent wave and you've been there forever and your're as old as Susan Coins is. Like that's surprised me There is this misreading of the polls where like they ask people not to compare Platinner and Collins on characters and morals. They just ask them if having good characters or good morals describe them. So Susan Coinsays these incredible numbers on you know, in the sixties on character and morals and Platinner seems like his numbers are much lower, but they're still in the mid forties. So he's getting forty percent of the vote