World Cup Fan Culture

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Listen to Upfirst from NPR wherever you get your podcast . With Whoop, you can focus on living better for longer, understand your sleep, optimize your training, and build habits that support your well being. Whoop gives you personalized insights into your sleep, your recovery, your strain, and the patterns that may influence how you feel with more clarity and consistency, you can create routines that support you throughout the year. Add more life to every moment. Discover whoop at whoop dot com Welcome back to Podsave with World On Tommy Tour. I'm Ben Rhodes. Ben that, was a hell of a time in Chicago last week for the Obama Library opening, man. It's fun to see you briefly. At whirlwind, yeah, I got to parachute in for the book tour so I didn't get to go to all the parties you guys went to, but I saw a great time. You missed the hangovers, which is nice for you. Well, maybe you didn't't. I don know. You spent a day with Cody as well, so you might have actually tacked on both those . Yeah, well I'm hung over from fatigue from this book tour, but I got to tour the museum on the day that it was open to the public. That's a course day . And that was really kind of special because it was basically all kind of south side families and I was the kind of only person there like who was kind of an alumni. Yeah. And so I got to kind of watch how other people were reacting to it. Yeah. And that was pretty cool, you know? That is really cool. Like not to be corny, but it felt like a family reunion and also a revival that left me feeling like, I don't know. Like what other work reunion like that , are you that happy to see so many different people? Like genuinely like overjoyed to like reconnect with people? And then also like again, not to be corny, but it really did make me want to just be more involved in politics and like more civically engaged and less like a cynical asshole on Twitter, which, you know, we'll see how long that holds, but it was well done. Yeah, I have to say, like, it affected me more than I thought it would, both to have thousands of people there that knew or could recognize , but also just the kind of , you know, without even trying that hard, the contrast of having , you know, whatever you think of the Obama's not being perfect , like decent, well meaning motivated articulate people who like have a certain decorum and respect for politics in the country as contrasted against the nightmare that we live in every day. I mean , it was a powerful contrast. Yeah, the bar is low. I mean, Sasha and Malia were not day trading on the Obama operation on Talcia or whatever . Yeah, they didn't have a drone. They weren't selling drone technology to the US government. Yeah , but yeah, no, it was an awesome, awesome week. By the way, if you want discounted tickets to another fun, exciting, inspiring live event, I'm of course talking about Curic on twenty twenty six, consider becoming a friend of the pod subscriber . Cricut cons uming up in November. Friend of the pod subscribers, get ad free episodes of this show, ad free episodes of Podsave America, get tons of bonus content, including extra podsave of America episodes, get deep dives into polling from Dan Pefifer, newsletters and a lot more , but also discounted tickets to Cricut Con, cool VIP experiences at Cricut Con. So go to Cricket. com slash friends to learn more. So we got a great show for you guys today. We're going to explain what's in the ceasefire memorandum that was signed by the U. S. and Israel. We'll walk you through all the details which side got what they wanted, what's left to be negotiated, what's not mentioned at all. We'll also recap the first round of peace talks in Switzerland and explain why there is still considerable ongoing risk of global economic disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hamuz and also return to war, especially in Lebanon. Then we're going to turn to the historic political changes happening in the UK where Prime Minister Kirstarmer announced he's going to step down and newly elected MP B Andyurnham will almost certainly take his place. Then we're going to talk about why Israel decided to become the first country in the world to establish diplomatic relations with Somaliland. We'll cover the recent elections in Colombia and then revel in the joy that is the FIFA World Cup. And then Ben, you did our interview today. What do we even hear? So I talked to Rana Yub, the extraordinary investigative journalist from India who's been on the pod a couple times. We talk about this new cockroach movement that has emerged in India against corruption and Modi . If you want to know more about how there is a movement called the cockroach movement that has caught fire, definitely check out the interview. We' alsoll hear about how Modi's up and down relationship with Trump is playing in India , how the War in Iran is impacting Indians, how the bromance with Netanyahu, which included a trip to Israel on the eve of the War in Iran that is now wreaked havoc on the Indian economy has gone down. So good checking on India, which we haven't done in a while. Indian politics and foreign policy, people should check it out. Didn't the US shoot like a bunch of missiles into the ship that killed three Indian sailors in the strait of Hamus. That's it. Yeah. Rona talked about this too. This is the they killed three Indian sailors and Modi said nothing about it. Imagine if they did us. I mean, yeah, it would be World War . Yeah. Anyway, I will definitely always listen to Ronau. She's an incredible journalist, like, you know, bravely doing work under great threat to herself and you know, people around her. So thank to her for coming on the show. All right, let's start with the what's in this MOU, Ben. Because late last week we finally got to see the text to the memorandum of understanding signed by the U. S. and Iran, and it's now clear why Trump was trying to hide the thing and not disclose it. So the peace talks have also already begun. We'll get to that second . But we're going to start just by walking you guys through what is and what is not in this document. So there's a ceasefire including in Lebanon. The two sides agreed to sixty days of negotiations, but that negotiating period can be extended . During that time though, the sixty days, both sides will end the blockade of the Strait O Hamuz, and the U. S. will start to move military assets out of the region that were used as part of the war. And then Iran says they will not put fees on ships passing through the strait during the next sixty days but, down the road, it sure seems like they are planning to. And then this is the list of stuff that I sort of categorized as what Iran wanted and got out of the deal. So the U. S. is going to put in place a sixty day waiver, a sanctions waiver on the sale of Iran ian oil and petroleum products and derivatives and such . One progressive economist estimated that Iran could make up to ten billion dollars off of that move alone. At some point in the near future Iran is going to get access to about twenty billion four frozen ass ets. This is mostly money from previous Iranian oil sales that got stuck in foreign bank accounts because of sanctions . And the MOU language is quite clear that they can spend this money on whatever they want. Like this is the text . The funds quote shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the central bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran gets a commitment to remove all sanctions. That means US sanctions, UN sanctions, all of them. And then there's this weird proposal to put together a three hundred billion dollars reconstruction fund of private money for Iran. I'm skeptical that this is ever going to happen, but Reuters says there's been one hundred fifty billion dollars commitment, so who knows? And then in the t Uerms of. S. wishlist Ben, so the Strait of Hormuz gets reopened kinda like in theory we're back to the pre war status quo, but in practice it's a lot more complicated because shipping companies need to feel safe before they're going to send their m assive multibillion dollar tankers into war zones . Iran reaffirms that they will never have a nuclear weapon. We say reaffirm because they've already affirmed it before, both in the NPT and the JCPOA , getting them to say that it's not the hard part. It's negotiating the ways to prevent it is the hard part. And then in terms of enrichment, whether Iran will enrich nuclear materials going forward, it says the two parties also agree to discuss the issue of enrichment , so they punt on that big question . And then in terms of the stockpile of highly enriched uranium, Iran has agreed to at least down blend its stockpile of enriched uranium, but not necessarily to ship it out of the country. Downblending means you reduce the purity of the stockpile so that it is less close to weapons grade. So maybe you down blend it to three point seven percent or three point six seven percent, which is what you use in civilian energy projects or zero point seven percent is sort of like what's found in nature. But of course, you can then enrich it back up if it remains in the country. So not mentioned in this deal is Iran's support for proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Also not mentioned is Iran's ballistic missile program, which at the beginning of the war, we were told was this massive existential threat that had to be taken care of. Don't take it for me, Ben, here's Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The purpose of this is to destroy that missile capab ility. Why does Iran want that ballistic missile capability? What they are trying to do and have been trying to do for a very long time is build a conventional weapons capability as a shield where it can hide behind, meaning there would come a point where they have so many conventional missiles, so many drones, and it can inflict so much damage that no one can do anything about their nuclear program. Iran was building powerful missiles and drones to create a conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions. Let me say that again . A conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions . Our bases , our people, our allies, all in their crosshairs . Iran had a conventional gun to our head as they tried to lie their way to a nuclear bomb. Forgot we already also put the war crime beat poet Pet,e Hagset in that clip. So Ben , we've said this many times. The best available deal was the one that happened fastest and reopened the Strait of Hamuz and prevented economies in Asia from collapsing and famines from kicking off around the world. But in terms of the stated goals of this war, reading that document, we now know for sure that Trump got taken to the cleaners by the Iranians. Yeah, and I think you can compare it to also where they were in the negotiating table before the war. Because have to remember that we bombed Iran in the middle of a previous negotiation. And again, in that previous negotiation, the U. S. position absolutely no enrichment , absolutely no support for proxy groups, and geographic limitations on the Blessed Missile program, i. e. they can't reach Israel with Blessed missiles. The Blessed Missiles and the Proxy groups are completely off the table. Enrichment is punted, so it's not really dealt with in this . And then if you look at compared to the JCPOA , Iran did not get any money from its own frozen assets, any money whatsoever until after it did all of its commitments under the JCPOA, shipping out its stockpile , ripping out centrifuges, destroying the core of its plutonium reactor, submitting to inspections. They're getting that ten billion just upfront. Like if they're able to start selling right away or accessing, yeah. So they're getting that money without having to do anything with their nuclear program essentially upfront . We don't know what the final commitments are going to be on the nuclear side . We don't know what the inspections regime is going to be to ensure that Iran carries through on its obligations. It's incredibly loose. And the body language of the deal is one of surrender. It's one of Iran won this war , we failed in our objectives. Trump wants out, he's far more worried continuing the war, continuing the straight of form moves shut down because of the economic impacts, then he is scared of what Iran will do with the money or how it's going to look. That Iran seemingly defeated the United States in this conflict, that Bib Ninya is upset about it . That's very clear to the whole world. And so that suggests that there's not a lot of pressure on Iran to make significant commitments in this next negotiating period because they know that Trump just kind of wants out of this thing . And so however this all shakes out, Iran is in a stronger position than they were before the war . The United States, Trump is, you know, doing all the things that he trashed Obama for doing and frankly lied about some of the things that Obama was doing. And I mean, like there's no way to look at this other than a complete humiliation for Trump. Yeah, look, I'm glad the war is over, but I do think it's important to just call out how full of shit and hypocritical Trump and a lot of his goons were , both in the lead up to this war, but also in their criticisms of the JCPOA. I mean, like , I found this old tweet, Tim Miller aedff toord me today Ben was J. It D Vance attacking me personally and saying it was quote complete idiocy to suggest there was a distinction between unfreezing assets and giving Iran money. I wonder if he still believes that , or me suggesting that some sort of diplomatic deal could force Iran to spend money on humanitarian supplies like JD Vance is now claiming this deal does . But it wasn't just JD being a hypocritical piece of shit. It was a bunch of them. Let's roll a clip here. Iran was a country that was in deep trouble . They were doing badly . And then we took the sanctions off. And we should have never taken the sanctions off before we finished the deal . We took the sanctions off before. You know why they're great negotiators? They said, We will not negotiate unless you take the sanctions off. And our guy said, Okay , if you want to check Iran, the way to do it is to one withdraw their oil money, which of course Joe, Biden's been bad about it. I do want to be recorded for history's purposes before I know what was going to happen in regards to this if it goes through . Iran will immediately use the money that it's receiving in sanctions relief to begin to build up its conventional capabilities. It will establish the most dominant military power in the region outside of the United States, and it will raise the price of us operating in the region. Consider yourself recorded for history, Marco. It's just a little later than you thought. It's just at the time that the JCPOA happened, they were making these bad faith arguments, right? That the unfrozen assets that Iran was getting under the JCPOA again after they did far more significant things on nuclear comm itments was like writing a check to the Iranians, right? And now they're making the exact same arguments like they don't even I mean because they have no shame. There's a kind of bottomless well for them in terms of their capacity for hypocrisy . I think that the important point here though is that the failure, right? There's two failures that deserve to truly be highlighted here because you know, it's not so much just fail aure of diplomacy . It's the failure of the war , right? This is the point. Like going to war left us in a much worse place than using diplomacy did. Yes. This is the main lesson that Americans, Democrats, and hopefully some Republicans will take from this. The reason these terms are shitty is not just because they're shitty negotiators. It's because they had a shittier hand because they went to war. Exactly. And all the decades of hearing that the way you show you're tough and the way to solve problems is to bomb countries and to go to war was just proven like categorically wrong . And I think the other thing that deserves to be called out here is the absolute like bad faith characterizations of diplomacy in the past because they spent years discrediting a nuclear deal that they now would give anything to get exactly like and there has to be some accountability for this and we are our politics and our media is so bad at holding, you know, why is anybody going to ask Lindsey Graham his opinion on anything ever again? Dude I lost my life or Ruby for that matter. Or , right? I saw Lindsey Graham on Face the Nation this Sunday and he was saying, Oh, well if this deal doesn't work out, we're going to go back to war and Trump then's going to take control of the strait, then we're going to take twenty percent of all the revenue for the oil that goes through. And it's like, why are you booking this fucking moron on your ship? Exactly. How many wars does he have to be wrong about? He was wrong about Iraq. He was wrong about Iran. He's a barnacle who just lives on Trump's ass. And like, we don't need to hear from this man. We don't I don't ever need to hear from Mark Dubewitz or anyone at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy Think Tank. Like no one has been as thoroughly discredited as these stupid warmonger bloodthirsty neocon hacks run them out of Washington, stop quoting them in your articles. David Sang or New York Times like all of you like lose their phone numbers, please, they're fucking clown s. Yeah, they're just pissing on your leg, you know, and I mean, I'm sorry that you gave me an image that I will always have of Lindsay Graham being a barnacle and Donald Welcome ass. You're welcome. But it's absolutely correct. And because this is the point that this connects to what I was saying about the war and the accountability , you are treated as serious in Washington. If you want to bomb countries , right? So like, if you're a super progressive, if you're like a left ist in Congress, you would never get booked on a Sunday show because it's like, you know, that person doesn't that's not a serious foreign policy person, right? Lindsey Graham is far less serious . This is a man who just advocates for war and then can turn on a dime if Donald Trump like instructs him to do so. He's not like the FD crowd and all the people that sold this war posing essentially as like impartial experts when they were clearly just fucking pushing an agenda to do this. And now we did the thing that they wanted, and it proved out to be catastrophically wrong. So there's no reason that you need to like treat these people as experts just because they want to fight wars . And I've said this a couple times before Tommy, but like it, was harder to get the JCPOA through Congress than it was to go to war in Iraq than it was for Donald Trump to go to war in Iran. That's fucked up, and that's what needs to change in American politics and media and foreign policy in twenty fifteen, the Congress passed a special law just to make it harder to do a diplomatic deal with Iran, but they have completely just given up their role declaring war or authorizing war. It's insane. Let's talk about the peace talks though then because the negotiations between Iran and the US took place in Borgenstock, Switzerland over the weekend. You see photos of this resort there at, by the way? Look pretty sick. Look pretty nice. Music . Yeah . Things got off to a rocky start. On Saturday, the IRGC announced they were closing the strait of Hormuz again because of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. I don't think they actually did it, but traffic is nowhere near where it was before the war. So Trump took that announcement by the IRGC very well, telling Fox News, quote, you close it and you won't have a country, you won't even make it back to your fucking country . End quote. So it's always good to threaten to kill the negotiators right before you have a little chat. Despite all of that, the talks finally happened. Unfortunately, they were led by JD Vance, who's a clown and kind of like the bumbling idiot traveling duo of Steve Witcoff and Jared Kushner . The two sides claim to have agreed to the following the establishment of a high level committee to provide political oversight on the talks. And then there's a working group of like actually qualified people that will do most of the work and the negotiations. They agreed on a roadmap to get the deal done in sixty days, communications line to avoid incidents in the Strait of H ermes, and then a quote deconfliction cell to ensure the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon as per the MOU end quote. So trying to find some sort of way to prevent fighting from Hezbollah and Israel from flaring up into a rupture that sort of blows up the whole thing . But there's also some major disagreements or at least competing claims from the two sides. So JD Vance and Trump are saying that Iran agreed to let IAEA inspectors back into Iran, but Iran says they have no plans to let inspectors back into sites bombed by the U. S. and Israel. Remember before the twelve day war, the IAEI had access to those sites, and they got kicked out because the war started. Advance also tried to claim that unfrozen Iranian assets would only be used to buy American crops . As I discussed earlier, Iran is saying, No, we can spend that money on whatever we want. It's kind of in the terms of the deal. Trump claims the strait is fully open. It's moving at record volumes. The reality is like a couple dozen ships a day are going through that is not even close to the pre war levels and there's still naval mines to contend with. And then Trump says Iran will never charge a toll on ships in the strait, but Iran has already set up this new company to eventually charge insurance for ships passing through the stra it. Then I saw this announcement today from the Iranians and Oman, where they announced they're discussing costs for the services they provide. So again, it sure sounds like they're setting up a toll there. Both sides sounded an optimistic note on the way out. Iran's foreign minister said, quote, Pakistani Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end the Lebanon war. And then this is a clip from JD Vance's couple of press evils. Let's watch. Yesterday was a very, very good day. We made a lot of good progress. We did exactly what we wanted to do. The final deal is the house. We set the foundation. We haven't built the house, but we've laid a successful foundation to get to a good place for the American people. What we told the Iranians yesterday is when you guys engage in what us millennials might call trash talk , you can't expect the President of the United States not to respond and not to correct the record. This region has been a basket case for a very long time. I've spent a lot of time dealing with the Iranians over the last few months. Sometimes I find them extremely confusing as negotiators. Okay, I love a plotting pedantic metaphor followed by him defining what trash talk is followed by sort of like insulting the other party. But I don't know, Ben, considering me skeptical these guys are getting a nuclear deal done. I bet they're kind of punt this thing, you know, keep extending talks, keep shipping going, but what do you think? Yeah, I mean, that's the thing because like Iran knows a few things, right ? So the first is, I mean, a few months ago, you know, we made this comparison. But in the Suez crisis, right, when England and France and Israel went to war to stop Egypt from nationalizing the Suez, guess what ended up happening? On the back end of that, Egypt kept tolling the Suez, they're still doing it today. Iran has shown that they can extract revenue from the Strait of Hormuz. So they know that they can do that even if they don't get a nuclear deal, right? So even if they don't get a nuclear deal , they can try to find some money by saying like there's some new insurance premium you have to pay and you have to pay to both Iran and Oman. So it feels like it's, you know, not just Iranians . And so again, they don't necessarily need some additional sanctions relief to find more revenue absent a nuclear deal. The second thing they know is how likely is it that given how calamitous and politically catastrophic this was for Trump, how likely is it that no matter what Lindsay Graham says that that Trump's going to go back to war with Iran in sixty days right for midterm elections in a nuclear deal. Yeah . So I think it's quite possible, if not likely, that Iran like pockets that ten billion dollars, maybe they get that twenty four billion dollars, maybe they get some of the three hundred billion dollars investment fund that's going in there, which who knows maybe Jerry and Witcoff or getting in on the game for Iranian infrastructure. I don't know, just asking questions here. It wouldn't surprise me. But they can still yeah, they can still get tons of money and control the Strait of Hormuz without making any nuclear concessions. And they also know that JD Vance , you know, they don't like it when Trump threatens to destroy their country because he would. And they don't like when he threatens to kill the negotiators because in the past they have bombed and killed people that were in the Iranian political system during negotiations. But they also know that JD Vance just wants to get through the next Fox News. He wants out of . He back wants to get on his plane to go home . He wants to stop Tucker Carlson for running for president in his lane next time around. And so if JD Vance needs to do a fox head and talk about how they're only buying American crops , like they're and the text says what it does, like, all right, JD, like go lie and gaslight your own people because the Iranians are going to have that money anyway. So the Iranians are again to use a Trump terminology, they're holding like all the fucking cards . J AndD Vance is just like spinning around in circles to be the one who rebuilds his credit with like Megan Kelly and Tucker Carlson. Yeah, I just yeah, JD Vance was talking about the stupid like forcing them to buy American wheat and corn deal. Like it was some brilliant idea from Jared Kushner of all people. But you're right. I mean, I just saw the delegations and it's like on our side, it's these bumbling idiots who just want to make money and get back to their talks with the Russian oligarchs and not solve the war in Ukraine. And on their side, it's like incredibly experienced diplomats and nuclear experts who have literally nothing else and nothing better to do with their lives and they will grind them down into a pulp if that's what it takes. Yeah the same it's the same people of Abasarachi, the foreign minister like negotiated for years with us the last nuclear deal. Like these and they'll be there, guess what? They'll also be there after Trump. They know that. Trump's gone in like two years . And Jerry was Jared like member of Scott Besson turned out to be a soybean farmer? You really think that Jared Kushner wakes up every day worried about like selling wheat to somebody? No, Jerad Kushner is probably more interested in getting a piece of the action of the three hundred billion dollar golf fund that 's going into Iranian infrastructure. Yeah, he's focused on getting deals for the Saudis wherever's paying his checks . Pod Save the World is brought to you by three day blinds. When you're one of those people that needs to sleep in complete darkness, nothing is worse than blinds that allow light to pour in at the crack of dawn. In twenty twenty six, are your blinds still from two thousand six? There's a better way to buy blinds, shades, shutters and draper y. It's called three D Blinds. They are the leading manufacturer of high quality custom window treatments in the United States. We can shop for almost anything at home. 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Now, for what it's worth, CNN's reported that Israel is considering like symbolic limited withdrawals from parts of the country. I assume to make Trump happy. But Netanyahu is getting hammered by his political opponents for this deal, especially what's happening in Lebanon. For example, Neptali Bennett said Netanyahu is not telling the truth about the IDF's freedom of action in southern Lebanon, and that quote, the truth is our boys' hands are tied and that quote, the enemy understands the limitations and exploits them for rapid reestablishment that will lead to harm to the lives of our soldiers. In other words, he's blamed. He's saying this deal is going to get IDF soldiers killed . Trump seemed oddly surprised by all the pushback in Israel Ben. Here's a quick clip of him getting asked about Lebanon in the Oval Office on Monday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his forces are not leaving Lebanon. That is a sticking point. Who didn't detail that to you? He said it publicly in Israel. Well, we're going to take a look at it. Well, what would you do to make sure that he doesn't well, I'm not going to tell you what I'm going to do, but it gets solved. I'm a problem solver. I get problem solved real fast, including with BB. It's also been interesting to watch kind of like the increasingly aggressive pushback from the White House on Netanyahu and on Israel. So for example, here's some comments from JV Vance to kind of make the point. That you've seen people in their system Ben Gavir and Smokritch who have attacked the deal. And I guess my response to them would be what is your exact proposal ? And you're a country of nine million people . You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have. Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time. And he happens to be the head of state of the world's superpower. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world. Can only imagine if Barack Obama said that what APAC would be saying we also heard that Trump suggests that Israel should let get out of Lebanon and let the Syrians take care of Hezbollah. That is an excellent recipe for brutal regional war since the Syrians hate Hezbollah because they helped Assad massacre the opposition in the Syrian Civil War. Luckily, President Amad Al Shara said no thanks to that crazy idea. But Ben, look, again, I'm very concerned that this is going to be the spoiler that blows up the peace talks. I hope I'm wrong, but it sure seems like Netanyahu has a pretty strong political incentive to blow up this deal and just kind of make these attacks on him go away in advance of the election. Yeah, no, Netanyahu needs a war. Without a war, there's no justification for why he should be Prime Minister, be it in Iran or Lebanon or Gaza or the West Bank or what have you. Now there's so much that is kind of fucked up about this. Like so first of all, like are we not supposed to notice that Israel is occupying southern Leb anon . You know, like what is the legal basis under which they're just like claiming a huge chunk of Lebanese territory and hanging out ? And also like it's really like , you know, sometimes the way people talk about this , it acts like well, Neil Netanyahu, like, you know, he's got a political problem because he needs to continue the war in Lebanon. Like consider how profoundly messed up it is that what has gone wrong in Israeli politics , that it's a problem if you're not like fighting a war and bombing people in Lebanon. Like what has gone wrong in our politics that it's seen as logical that because four Israeli soldiers were killed who are in Lebanon that they killed forty seven civilians in response. Like the whole world sees this and how dark it is . And the degree of frustration in America because they Americans know that Nenyao talked Trump into this is catching up to frankly where the whole world is, which is why on earth are we justifying and enabling and facilitating and arming an Israeli government to just kind of fight a forever war in Lebanon because it's good for BB's politics ? And then you know Tali Bennett, one of his chief opponents like is just outflanking him to the right all of them that's just how Lepid too. Yeah, this is going to right. Yeah . This is dark. It is not normal. We should call it out. It's demonstrating that the problem in Israel politics is not just Binana although he's a big part of it. So that's messed up . JD Vance's like, you know , pretty brutish comments here are indicative of where the politics are going in the Republican Party. Very soon. We know where the politics are in the Democratic Party. What constituency do people think exists for enabling this? And the last thing I'd say about the deal itself, we just talked about Iran's disincentives for making actual nuclear concessions. This is going to be a giant one. Because Iran's going to be able to say if this is still going on, if Israel's occupying Lebanon, well, wait a second, you guys didn't implement your side of the deal. Why should we get rid of our enrichment of nuclear material s when you know Israel's still in southern Lebanon. So it lets Iran off the hook ironically if Israel is violating the terms of the deal because it gives the Iranians a basis for tolling the strait of Hormu z and not making nuclear concessions because they can say, well, nobody's really keeping the terms of this thing. Yeah, this is a total mess. I don't have confidence in any of these talks sticking or the Israelis staying on sides in Southern Lebanon, but I don't know, I guess all we can do is knock on wood and hope because another closure, a prolonged closure of the Straitor Humuz would lead to catastrophic economic consequences and just impact people thousands of miles away who might starve to death. And that's just the worst case scenario. Ben, let's turn to the UK , where you are currently. I think you're in London, right? Yes. So our friends I'm in London. By the way, event tonight Wednesday in London at Intelligence Square if people want to come see me. Nice Yeah, come see Ben. Brink your stormy with cocoa. Cocoa. Coca Con is interviewing us. That'll be actually fun and funny. That's great. Coco I didn't mean to like that. I was being like, she's absolutely no. It's true. She's funny than me. No, she's more careful. She's funnier than your average book moderator is what I'm getting at. I say that as having been one, usually they're not as like effortless and as Cocoa. So our buddies across the pond, we're about to have their seventh prime minister in ten years. On Monday, Prime Minister Kirstara announced that he's going to resign. Here's a bit of his speech outside number ten Downing Street. I was told time and time again that my party was finished , that we were consigned to history , that a majority at the general election , let alone a landslide majority was impossible But we prove those people wrong . The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election . I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question . Every decision I've taken has been about putting the country I love . That is why I will resign as leader of the Labour Party. I shall spend more time on the most important job , being the best husband I can to my, fantastic wife Vick and being the best dad I can , to my beautiful children , who are my pride and my joy. So Starmer's resignation came after his political rival, Andy Burnham decisively won his race for parliament. This was that Maker field by election that we talked about previously. Burnham got fifty five percent of the vote while his opponent from the right wing reform UK party only got thirty three percent or thirty five percent. So that twenty point victory That huge margin convinced Labor MPs that Burnham was a better option to lead them into the next election. Starmer initially promised to fight for his job , but that all changed after even members of his own cabinet said it was time to go. So what happened and what comes next? On the what happened front, analysts seem to agree on a few reasons why Starmer only made it through two years of a five year term after leading Labor to this landslide a victory, a landslide victory back in twenty twenty four. So there were a couple smaller things. There were big controversies and scandals like taking free gifts and then there was the far bigger scandal of naming Jeffrey Epstein's buddy Peter Mandelson to be ambassador to the UK. There were some dumb policy decisions and then backtracking on some policy decisions that made him look weak and indecisive. But the big things you hear is that Starmer just never adequately laid out a vision for the job or a plan for what he wanted to do. And then even when he was successful, he was bad at communicating it , not just lacking charisma, but I think unable to tell a bigger story about his vision and labor leadership. And frankly, Ben, I think that that farewell speech not to be unfair to the guy, but it was kind of an example of the kind of dry like laundry list stuff we'd hear from him pretty often. So in terms of what happens next , the Labor Party will have a leadership process , but it seems like former greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham will almost certainly win it and become the next prime min ister. Burnham's one big potential rival was a guy named West Streeting. West Reading had quit the Starmer cabinet, but he's already bowed out and endorsed Andy Burnham. Starmer says he wants the process wrapped up by july sixteenth , but things could get done faster . Of course, Donald Trump had to humiliate Starmer on his way out the door by confirming Starmer's resignation before he had had a chance to do it himself, which is just wonderful move, wonderful guy. So Ben, again, you're in the UK as you speak class act. Thoughts on the Stormwor legacy and Burnham's future. And what's the reaction been like there with the people you talked to? Yeah, I was here doing British media all day talking obviously to people who follow politics closely too . And I mean, it's kind of anticlimactic, you know, nobody was surprised by the time this happened. I think as soon as Danny Burnham won and won with that result, it was clear. If people say like, well, what's one by election say about his ability to win a general election. I think the basic analysis was like, look, this guy's from, you know, Manchester, Northern England, this is the kind of part of the country where Labor has been losing a lot of support to reform and other parties . And so not only does he win that election decisively , but he also kind of comes from the region that they need to kind of win back. And so once he won with that margin, it was pretty clear he was going to have the support. It was also the case that all the reporting here was that he'd already lined up essentially a majority of Labor MPs. So it was kind of game over for Starmer . Look, I think if you look at the legacy , I guess on the positive side, you know, because you kind of feel sympathy for someone who won a general election and then you kind of has to resign early . You know, the positive legacy won. Like he kind of positioned labor to be in a place to win a general election and return to power. That matter s a lot And then there's a bunch of smaller things that people can point to changes that he made in this or that policy. But that kind of leads to the negative as you pointed out, like what was the big program? What was the big vision? You know, like what was like both the story he was telling about where Britain was going ? And also like what were their kind of big agenda items? Like what was his vision for the NHS, the National Health Service or for restoring growth in the UK or kind of rebuilding a relationship with Europe after Brexit. Like he was playing these kind of small ball items and policy and then his communications was , you know, always kind of dry and a bit defensive . And it just like you just didn't ever have the sense that he kind of had the reins here. And he was always kind of reactive and he was always kind of on defense. And meanwhile, you've got like Nigel Farage, like not a person that has a problem communicating , like vaulting up. And I think people just ultimately decided like it's just too dangerous. Nobody kind of felt that Starmer was the best choice to kind of lead labor through the next couple of years and then into a general election against like a huge threat to British democracy and reform. And so there's an unknown about what Andy , the second thing we should say here, Tommy is that it's not like it's particularly clear what Annie Burton's vision is No not at all he's yeah, he's to Starmer's left . He's a more charismatic politician and so that you know that's enough for some people, right? Like he's a just a better politician. And you know, for the progressives, like it seems like he'll be a little bit more where they are. I should add on the progressive side, a lot of frustration with Starmer's, you know , you know, pretty much aligned with Israel . Like he didn't really break support on Israel's policy in Gaza. He's kind of prosecuted these people for like free speech crimes just because they like speak up in defense of Palestine. So that didn't help him on the left either. So look, I think you can feel bad for the guy and you can kind of say like, you know what? He seemed like he did his best and he got labor back in power, but you know, not exactly a big surprise here. Yeah, in some ways you could ar,gue the left and the Labor Party got a lot of what they wanted, things like good things on workers' rights, stuff for trade unions, stuff for renters, a higher minimum wage , some tax hikes. You have to nationalize the trains , but service. You're right. Yeah, they moved slowly on Israel at best. But ultimately, the polling, it wasn't just that the polling showed that voters wanted it to go. I mean, there six and ten Britons told Yuogv that they thought it was the right thing for him to quit . But also there was a poll recently that found that labor led by Kirstarmer be that reform would be eight points ahead of labor in the election, but with Andy Burnham leading labor , reform would only be one point ahead. So there was some polling that suggested labor would be better positioned with Andy Burnham in charge. And then just like results or results. You know, like we can look at all the polls you want, but when you're Antie Burnham and you run and you kick the shit out of the reform candidate and a constituency like the one you described. I mean, that's going to wake a lot of people up . And just to add sort of like the pylon , you know, there's also people blame Kirstarmer for like listening to Morgan McSweenee, his advisor too much. He was certainly like primarily focused on with crushing the kind of Corbinista wing of the party. I think that people thought he seemed too dower and gloomy. I saw a great analysis piece where one MP described what happened to Starmer as the fate of the third plumber. So you have a leak in your house, your toilet's broken, the first plumber shows up, it doesn't work. You're like, uh, that sucks. The second one comes, then it doesn't work. The third one can't get it done and you want to kill that guy. That was kind of the metaphor this person used. You've also heard some analysts say like, I don't know, man, maybe the UK is now ungovernable as they're going from a two party system to a five, maybe six party system . The biggest problem Amy Burnham is going to have is going to be growth. They've kind of had, you know, they've been stuck in the mud, the wheels have been sping on economic growth. They've not really reckoned with Brexit. I think we just hit the ten year anniversary of Brexit and they just haven't figured that shit out . And then you have a totally unreliable Donald Trump reminding the world why we're no longer a good ally as the UK is out of Brexit. And I think Rory Stewart, who I know you talk to today is always talking about how if you're looking forward for the UK economically, like they have no domestic AI industry. So what happens if the US just cuts off their access to all the anthropic models? Like we just did the other day. So there's a lot of X factors out there, a lot of challenges ahead. Yeah, I'm glad you brought up the Brexit thing because today is actually the tenth anniversary of Brexit . And I think the common thread here is that no British politician has been able to articulate kind of what this country's future is after Brexit. Yeah. I mean, the right could only articulate getting to Brexit, but not kind of what came next. A lot of the economic problems are because of Brexit. Like they lost the market access to came with the EU. They're kind of they're an island quite literally. And I think so for Andy Burnham, like the advice I'd give is number one, yes, you have these problems. Like there's not a lot of money and it's hard to find growth. But if you can give a vision, like a big vision about where the horizon is, like, what we're trying to get to, if you can, instead of doing like a million little things, like pick two or three bigger things that may not fix every problem but give people a sense of progress in their lives. If you do more, you know, Starmer was very tentative about kind of rebuilding relationship with Europe. And you know, maybe you're not going to go all the way back and eat right away, but like begin to negotiate more agreements to get closer to Europe that kind of indicates, hey, like we kind of overreached on the Brexit thing. And the last thing I'd say, Tommy is stand up to Trump. He's like, if I'm Andy Bernarda, I'm doing the Georgia Maloney thing. I'm picking fights with Trump because you know what Trump's gonna be an asshole anyway. Kir Starmer was really nice to him. He gave him like the World Carriage ride when he came to town. I actually think Brits need a little confidence here. You know, they need a little like Hugh Grant in love actually, you know, like they I mean, maybe not the best analogy there, but but you know what I mean? Like yeah, there's there's a lack of confidence here, right? And they want if you get strong visionary leadership and storytelling about what this country is and where it's going. I say this country because I'm sitting here , I think would maybe buy you a little time with voters. I think politics is pretty basic and it's like strong, weak, tough kind of south . And I think Kirstarmer just never looked he looked weak in the face of Trump. And I think you got to figure out a way to fight back and do it a little more assertively just so you don't look like you're getting walked on . Pod save the world is brought to you by HIM.S ED is way more common than most guys think. Millions of guys deal with it at some point, and that's exactly why HIMS offers a straightforward way to handle it. 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Don't wait to claim your name, invest in your dream domain today. Head to squarespace dot com for a free trial and when you're ready to launch go to squarespace dot com slash world to save ten percent off your first purchase of a website or domain that's squarespace dot com slash world Let's switch gears to Africa and talk about the relatively new relationship between Israel and a place called Somaliland. So for context, Somaliland is this breakaway, selfla decred state in the horn of Africa. It declared independence from the rest of Somalia in nineteen ninety one after a long and brutal civil war. Now, if you look at a map, you'll see Somalia is kind of shaped like the head of an arrow pointing northeast on the map, the territory running along the Indian Ocean is Somalia and there's a little chunk of the top along the Gulf of Aiden that neighbors Djibouti. That is Somaliland. Somaliland used to be a British colony, but it gained independence in nineteen sixty and united with Somalia. But now they want to basically undo that decision to become an independent state. But one of their challenges has been that no other countries would recognize them until recently. In December of twenty twenty five, Israeli Prime Minister Bibet u announced Israel and Somalia land had established diplomatic relations . In March of this year, Bloomberg reported that Israel was trying to build a military base in Somaliland. And then more recently, there have been reports that Israel had already deployed a small number of troops to Somal iland. Israel Katzi, Israeli defense minister said the other day that the two countries had been secretly coordinating for years . So listeners might be wondering why, why would Israel of all countries support a breakaway state seeking independence that seems like a bad precedent for them with the Palestinian authority in Gaza, et cetera, right ? The primary reason is the Houthi rebels. So we've talked about the Houthis a bunch. The Houthis are the Syranian backed political and military organiz ation in Yemen that has been designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the United States. The Houthis have fired missiles at ships in the Red Sea in protests of the war in Gaza. They've also fired lots of missiles at Israel itself. And so a permanent base in Somaliland would give Israel surveillance and military capabilities that are much closer to Yemen itself. It would let them track Houthi movements and missile launches and whatever else the Houthis and the Iranians are doing in the Gulf of Aden. There's also been reports of a much darker rationale, which is that Somaliland could be a destination for people pushed out of Gaza as part of an Israeli ethnic cleansing campaign. The other countries named in the reporting. I think it was an AP story about this was Sudan in Somalia. So a bunch of very safe places with lots of economic opportunity for the Gazens who would be displaced here. Yeah . For what it's worth, there are reasonable arguments on the merits for why Somalia land should be its own state. They've been peace fully self governing for over thirty years. They've had elections, they have a currency, they've executed peaceful transfers of power. Meanwhile, Somalia is a disaster . It's a bashion for terrorist groups like Al Shabaab, but a big argument against recognition is that the African Union does not recognize Somali land, nor do any other African countries because they don't want to see a wave of breakaway independence movements like that . So the Trump administration was talking about this possible recognition during the transition. I think that then was more about hedging their bets in Djibouti, which is the homes of the only permanent US military base in Africa in several thousand U. S. personnel and a whole bunch of drones. But Djibouti, the problem in Djibouti is they basically sell base access to any country that can afford it. So you've got this cluster of bases packed into a tiny area, which means the U. S. base is two miles from the Chinese base, literally. And I think the Pentagon's probably worried about anizer sit uation where like a coup or a political change means suddenly you're kicked out of the country and have no access. So Ben sorry for the long wind up there, but what do you think the logic of this move is for Israel , their real motivation? Like why they're going so public with it now? And what are some of the downside risks do you think? Well, look, it's pretty obvious Israel is doing this for strategic reasons . I mean, do we really think that in Israel foreigni polic y, they looked at the entire world and that they decided that there's kind of a moral cause for them to recognize Somaliland. It is clearly strategically placed, as you said , like near the Houthis , which is a concern of Israel's. It's a potential venue for Israeli military intelligence operations , you know, not just against the Houthis, but kind of in the Gulf region generally . And I just think that's a shitty reason to go ahead and, you know, be the first country to establish a macro relations. Like there's not like a, you know, I'm sure the talking points are about their self government, but does anybody truly believe again that that 's what motivated to do this, right? And so that leads to the risk, because the risk is you're not only kind of destabilizing this region in some ways because the other countries don't want it . But what are we now saying that like any little breakaway province that has like a grievance and there are many , not just in Africa, but in other places, but like we can just talk about Africa, that essentially if they offerer their tritory to some power, be it Israel or somebody else for a military base, like suddenly they can get diplomatic recognition . It's just another sign that we're in like an age in which in which everything is just transactional. There are no rules, there's no processes. Institutions like the African Union and the United Nations kind of don't matter. It's an end run around all that. And so I think that's your risk, right? You're encouraging separatism, you're encouraging like the sale of sovereignty for military based purposes . And yes, you know, potentially maybe you're creating a venue for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. So it doesn't smell right even if you could find cause to have some sympathy to Somal and. Yeah, and even sort of like the director of Horn of Africa region, I mean, I think Ethiopia came closest to recognizing Somaliland, but then they backed away because all their neighbors were not happy about it, but I think they've cut a deal to get port access in Somaliland. The port is actually operated by the Emiratis weirdly, but that pissed off the Egyptians who have a dispute with Ethiopia over water rights and access because they're both dependent on the Nile River and the Ethiopians put that trump ended that war. Yeah , that the border just all gone wars. So then Egypt cut a deal with the Somalis. So yeah, it's just sort of like exacerbating regional tensions. I'm sure this won't help . Yeah.ing Interest story though, and one will keep watching. Speaking of which another interesting election that we covered earlier this month was Colombia's election . There were the first round results in May. That set led to a runoff with a progressive candidate Yvonne Sapeda and the right wing candidate Ebilardo de la Esprea, also known as the Tiger. So that runoff ended this past weekend. The results are now in. So the Tiger, the right wing candidate, he narrowly won. The Guardian reported he got twelve point nine six million votes, which is about ninety or sorry, forty nine point six percent of the vote compared to Sapeta's forty eight point seven percent of the vote. It's worth noting that the margin this time was even smaller than first in the round . Delis Brea will take over with a minority in Congress in a very divided country . Just for funzy's been, here's Trump commenting on the election and of course making it all about himself. Let's watch. We know that you have . I endorsed him. He was in tense place. I endorse him and he won the election. Yeah. No different than this country. You had a conversation with I did. He called me last night and he thanked me for the endorsement. He won. He won the election. He wasn't anticipated to win , but he won and he won handily . It's just an honor . He was just a good man. I'd watch him a little bit speak and he always spake. You know, when people like me, I like them. It's very simple. It's a very simple formula and I like them. He said really nice things about me and the job we've done in the United States and very, very powerful . And he won an election in Colombia that I don't know, some people were surprised. Simple formula. And then again, just for fun, here's De Laspritillea's workout routine that he posted on Instagram. Not to be a total bro, but if you're going to call yourself the tiger and wear gloves in your home gym, you gotta be putting that more than like thirties when you're doing bench. Ben , it seems like we're going to see a return to a militarized war on drugs, more coordination with the U. S., probably with Pete Hegseth, and just the US military bombing suspected drug traffickers. We'll probably see the construction of mega prisons like El Salvador did. There's all these lawsuits against the press from the Tiger. What do you think about these results and kind of what it says about the future of the U. S. relationship with Colombia and sort of Colombia's role in the reg ion. I don't feel good about it. I mean, first of all, we should say this is not about Trump. I mean, it's not like they're voting for Trump. I think if one of the things that is clear is in Colombia, as we've seen in other countries, Ecuador, you know, El Salvador previously , there are real concerns about security. There's a sense of insecurity It's too violent and people are just kind of looking for something that feels a little more secure in that manner. And also, you know, there's a natural there's a left right swing that tends to happen in Colombia . I think the things that concern me are like first of all, the closest of this result in Petro, the outgoing president kind of alleged voter fraud and the U usingS and Israel of basically rigging votes. US and Israel of election interference without any we should say without any of evidence really . But look, like I don't think the tiger like people should know this guy is not just a normal like right wing politician. Like he has promised to build like mega prisons in the jungle, you know, like we're looking at in El Salvador . Who knows we're maybe deporting people down there from the United States and we may be locking up people en masse like they did in El Salvador that's not good . And this kind of validation of a right wing shift in Latin America is alarming because we've already seen in Bukele , a guy changed the Constitution to keep himself in power, you know, and who knows where how many of these right wing leaders end up being Democratic in the long run . And so again, I truly don't, this is not just kind of because I don't like Trump. I don't think this is because of Trump. I think there's other factors behind this. But the reality is these guys are going to be a block. They are going to work with Trump. They are going to work with either the U m. Sil.itary or Eric Prince 's security contracting type outfits to do things that probably , you know, call into question let's just say that human rights is probably not going to be top of mind for these guys. I think another election , this makes the Brazil election, which is later this year that much more important. Because if Lula, the incumbent president loses and the right wing takes over in Brazil too , man. It's going to be lonely down there for center lefts and progressive and socialist politicians. So yeah, bears watching, but I don't feel great about the result. Brazil's election coming up in October . Right now we got Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay, and Guatemala, with left wing governments in the region , the rest are shifting to the right. Yeah, the Tiger seems like a charming guy on a political talk show. He told a female journalist to look at a picture of him in sweatpants to understand why so many women are voting for him. So that's cool . But yeah , wonderful, wonderful folks that Trump is endorsing. Finally Ben , I am fully addicted to watching the World Cup. The England game is on, I think probably as we speak, it might be right now by now. They're playing right now. They're probably screaming in the streets . I'm already sad about it ending . I'd love to talk about it with you for a minute. First of all, the U. S. team is awesome. The Paraguay game was incredible. Got to go to that. It was the best experience ever. And then we looked awesome in the first half again st Australia. We're not going to talk about the second half because whatever we won . Then there's like the underdog stories , Cape Verde, Kaba Verde. Yes, that's been incredible. It's a tiny island nation. It's like three hundred fifty and mil es off the western coast of Africa. It's like half a million people one of the smallest countries to compete in the World Cup. They battled Spain to a draw. Spain is supposed to be one of the best teams in the entire tournament. Then they battled Uruguay to a draw this past Sunday . Check out this BBC clip . These guys went live right as K Ferdays scored their first goal check this out. What's your appraisal of the way the KVN team has been playing so far? I personally think so far, Capu Verde has been playing great. He's been matching Uruguay's pressure . The camera has broken he has made history tonight. She's probably a labir . You can see what you want. We're passing through the next phase. History, we are going to the next phase. I love that so much. I love those that had a forty year old goalie who shut out Spain and then went from fifty thousand to fifteen million Instagram followers. Yeah. There was a player who got recruited via LinkedIn DM and he like literally thought it was spam from the coach What else you what other sort of like actual playing and game narratives are you enjoying before we get to the kind of fan video stuff that's so much fun? I do like the fact that there's this combination which you want in every World Cup of like some of the good teams are just playing extraordinary soccer football, right? I mean to watch Leonol Messi score five goals in the first two games is unbelievable for Argentina and Bompe lling ran yeah and bombes playing like lights out Fr.ance looks great . The US obviously looks like it's knocking on the door of not maybe the first year, but like right there, right . And so there's just some excellent like you know, soccer being played, football being played . But then yeah, these underdog stories , to see Cape Verde , to see , you know, even the Iranians, like the save that that Iranian goalie made, did you see this, Tommy? Yeah , to kind of preserve a draw . That was like nuts I saw the Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo draw Portugal, which is, you know, winning handily today in the same way nothing. Yeah. Yeah . Yeah, the African soccer teams are overperforming. We'll see how Ghana does against England today. And I just kind of love all of those underdog stories. Again, in addition to the US, another host Mexico looks pretty good too, so it's kind of like good to see like the host countries in Canada win which I don't think they'd done before. So that's good. So it's you can't I love if it's just the favorites over performing, that's kind of boring . I love this combination of like there's some good teams playing really well and then there's some people coming out of nowhere and then there are these host countries doing well. Like it's a great mix of different storylines. Yeah it is. I mean Curasao is another one who played Uruguaya Draw. I just love like the scenes of the communities watching back home. Like the Jordanians are watching games in this like five thousand year old Roman era theater. It's like incredible. I don't know if you saw the Iranians, the note they left left. They a note in the locker room in LA. They said we came to Los Angeles with pride, competed with honor, and leave with dignity. Thank you Los Angeles for your hospitality, and thank you to every Iranian who gave their heart, voice and soul for Iran throughout these one hundred eighty minutes. May peace, respect and friends hip prevail among all nations . Really nice note, also probably not without political risk for them when they get home, right? You can imagine some IRGC goon being like, Why did you do that? What did that mean? Egypt got its first win. Their star player, Mosala was just like drinking in the streets with random people, I think up in Canada. So that was awesome . But Ben, I think what has captured all of our hearts, especially in the Podsa of the world slack are the videos of fans losing their minds . And I could watch this all day. I can do it literally all day. I will retweet anything you send me. I'm a sucker for all of it. And then it's like the culture's blending all across North America, like you said. Here's a little video compilation that we're going to watch, and then I'll just quickly tick through what we saw and we can talk about it. And here they are ready for today's game against the Rangers. Just moments ago, they marched from bowling chain through Mount Little Habana to take over Lone Deepot Park for today's match Obviously normal ain't yeah All right, so for those of you listening, not watching, first of all, subscribe to Podsave World on YouTube. But also we had a bunch of Norway fans rowing in Times Square. They'd been rowing everywhere. We had a CBS report about the Tartan Army. Those are Scotland fans. They were taken over Miami. They went to a Marlin's game, they marched through Little Havana. People in Boston were like genuinely sad to see them go Ben. I don't know if you saw the open letter in the Boston Globe. I saw everything. The mayor was commenting on it. Like people were like sad that they were leaving. There was one dude who just refused to leave. He said, No, I'm going to stay here for longer. English fans were singing sweet Carolina at a rodeo in Texas. There's a Scottish guy in a kilt playing the bagpipes while rollerblading in Miami. That is awesome. There was Becky fans riding to the stadium in Houston on horseback in full garb, and then again, the Scotland fans singing and chanting on a flight from Boston to Miami. Ben, is the World Cup the greatest soft power tool in the history of diplomacy. Yeah, but it's a soft power tool for everybody. For humanity. Every country is winning. For humanity, I mean let me just go through, I mean, I'm still a sucker, by the way, for the Lawrence Kansas embrace of the Algerian team, right I think Tommy that I my next New York sportsfan heart has been melted by the Boston Tartan Army romance . And I want to suggest that the Red Sox like play a baseball game in Scotland. Absolutely. We have to keep this. Yeah, we have to keep this going because I'm so mad that there's not gonna be more content of like Scotts like drinking with everybody in Boston and like befriending guys with Airbnb's and I know you know, march,ing around with bagpipes . If Bostonians go to Scotland we're going to bitch about the WiFi speeds and the plugs being different. You know what I mean? That's my fear. Yeah My own modern Rice University, like there was like fifteen thousand Dutch fans or something like that in orange like marching off the campus. Like I said, something totally bonkers like that. I got videos of like congoles making out with Mexicans. Like it's just wonderful. Like I can't say enough how much like you just see the best in every country in the way in which they root or the way in which they connect across cultures in the host nations I have nothing bad to say about anybody, which is like, you know , like the way you would like the world to be. Yeah. Apparently one of the commentators on the England Ghana broadcast said as we know, the English historically struggle in Massachusetts . That's a great line. That's a great line from a clever dude. Yeah . I love every minute of this. I want it to never end. I'm going to watch all the games. And maybe, you know, as when we wrap this, maybe we can catch the end of England games. We'll go to that. All right, that's the end for Ben and I 's portion of the show, but do not miss Ben's interview with Ron Ayub about some really important political dynamics happening right now in India. So stick around for that after the break. Pot Save the World is brought to you by Built. 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New episodes of strict scrutiny drop every Monday and keep an eye on your feed for emergency episodes when the big opinions come out. Watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcast. I am very pleased to be joined once again on Podsay the World. It's been too long. Arana Eb is an Indian journalist and author. She's an opinion columnist for the Washington Post . She's a author of the classic book Goodreaut Files Anatomy of a Coverup. She's on Substack, everybody should check her substack out. Rona, thanks so much for joining us. Thank you so much, Ben. We haven't talked in a bit. I mean, the last time we talked was after the general elections in India when Neander Modi and his BJP party won once again . Since then, a lot of things have happened. We've had further elections in India. Recently we've had this war in Iran . And we also have the cockroach movement that has exploded in India. I wanted to start by asking you to tell our audience that may not be familiar with it about that movement, how it started, what it's about and what it's becoming. Well, when a lot has happened since Modi's last generated election, he won the regional election in India. Of course now elections in India are no longer a level playing field, which is probably it's, you know, Maudi's government in Maudi's Modhi has used central agencies to literally co oper almost every political opposition in this country. But the Kokujanda party has come in from the space of void in the sense that so he started with the chief justice of India. He made an off the cuff remark in the court about the unemployed youth in India . He compared them to cockroaches . He said they are like cockroaches festering everywhere and you know they're filing they're becoming activists, they're filing applications in code. They're wasting the time of the code. So there is already a resentment in this country by a huge section of the of people who are dealing with poverty and unemployment . Instead of taking that as a slur , they turned it into a satire , you know, so they started it started as an Instagram page saying we the cockroaches, the cockroach janda party. And it said that we are a bunch of lazy people and our, you know, it was it was more like a satire like, you know, we are the cockroaches. Everybody was, but what was shocking is and probably it was , you know, it reflected about it it was a reflection about the disenchantment that Indian Indian youth is facing right now with the government that within about seven days there were twenty two million followers on Instagram , right? Much more than Narina Modi or the ruling party of India or the opposition party of India. It was it and it was organic. None of these people came from a political backroom or an organized political party. It was as an internet movement. It was very, very organic. And before we knew it was the talk of the town, these people suddenly had an agenda, a five point agenda about killing up the education system, clearing up corruption in India, clearing up, you know, position I mean the hierarchy in India . And Mohdi, I mean, Modi does not love activism. It's a bad word for him, you know, every time there's a student's movement, he always calls it a Soros Black movement. And they were quick to jump on this. They immediately banned the Twitter account, the Instagram account , citing national security saying that the Goku Janta party was fronted by elements from across the border. In fact , BJP leaders, Mauris, BJP, their leaders said that a lot of their followers are from Pakistan. So the Kokujanta party also showed its list of followers which are all Indian. So I feel the Kokujanta party and the meme of the cockroach has resonated quite a bit with the average Indian , which has been feeling let down and unseen . And with this movement it is trying to be seen by India and by the elite in India, by the political powers . And I think it has made a splash in the Indian political movement and rightly so the Indian the BJP is worried about it and its existence. Yeah, I mean, obviously India is a massively different scale, but we've been following over the last couple of years , these movements in Nepal and Bangladesh that have rocked and toppled governments actually. And I don't think that's necessarily going to happen in India . But that's right in the neighborhood. And I'm curious how you think about what is similar between this movement and the movements we've seen in South Asia . And obviously what is different in the sense that this is probably not going to result in the kind of overturning of governance like we saw in those countries. But where do you think it might lead going forward? So when the Koko Jontha Party gained popularity on social media and everybody thought this was our Gen Z protests that changed government in Nepal and in Bangladesh and in Sri Lanka. Everybody thought this was our moment where the Gen Z takes over . And many of the followers do believe that it is our their moment in the sun, the Jen Z is trying to assert itself. But when the leaders of the Kakujana party were posed this question, they said and they said they were far too mature indulge in any arson or any , you know , any activity that aims to kind of disturb the atmosphere of peace in that country. So they were trying to be very, very careful to not position themselves as and compare themselves to the outfits in Pakistan and other countries in South Asia because they knew that I mean they knew that any such statement would be used by the government of India to quell the protest and to silence them because I think the moment when something like this happened in Pakistan and Sri Lanka and Nepal , I think the first thing that the Indian establishment said that we would not allow something like this to happen in India because activism in India has become a bad word. So I think the Koko Janda party has been playing it very, very it's been walking a delicate tightrope trying hard to not compare itself with the movement in South Asia. And the second thing is I think right now this movement is largely on social media when they right now they're protesting on the streets but the numbers I mean of course it's Indian summer peak Indian summer but still the numbers are not quite surging as much as one expected it to see. It has made a splash but it does not have the same intensity of the protest in South Asia. Having said that, it's just a beginning, right? It is it is not a political movement, it does not have the finances to sustain something like this . It is right now battling a government and also battling for its own survival right now because the government is trying to ban its very existence. So right now I think it's a it's a very slow process where the popularity has come down to an extent where people are like what exactly will they achieve? This it has shown promise, but people are being very, very careful because Koko Janda party has not taken an ideological position yet. So a lot of the critics, especially in the left liberal circles are expecting it to take a position on the majoritarianism of the Modi government as opposed to the Kokujana Party saying we have to restrict ourselves which is education and unemployment. So I think there are there is a certain opposition to the CJP as it's called, but I think it will reveal itself in months in and till the next general election. Yeah, I want to come back to the opp osition, but I want to talk about Nurundr Modi and his foreign policy and how it's playing at home. And there are two leaders I'm asking about . Let's start with Trump So Modi really embraced Trump in his first term and kind of endorsed him when he ran for reelection , was clearly selling that these are like minded kind of nationalist strongman types Just watching from afar , a lot of things Donald Trump's done have hurt India since he came back into power. You know, we saw terrorists put on India. We saw Trump embrace Pakistan basically siding almost with Pakistan when there was the conflict bragging about ending the war and demanding that Modi nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize . We saw the war in Iran, obviously, part of Trump's signature foreign policy effort has had a really crippling effect on India because given the amount of energy that it gets through the Strait of Hormuz. Is there any political blowback that Modi's faced? He put all these chips on Trump. And it feels like the second Trump term has been not only not good for Modi, but kind of embarrassing at times for Modi. How do people in India look at that. It is extremely embarrassing because the same Modi fanboys who were like worshiping Trump and creating these statues of Trump are suddenly now abusing him in India and and they don't know how to reconcile this two that you know Modi put Trump on a pedestrial. He was his best friend . He campaigned for Trump in the US and did a huge rally for Trump in India. And now Trump is somehow , you know, he has this bipolar relationship with Modi and some days he's going to comment on Modi's complexion and his personality and odd days he's going to call India a country of using racist slurs against India. I think where India is concerned, I think it has revealed India's absolutely bizarre foreign policy because we do not seem to have a foreign policy. And I think Trump has really exposed the rot with in it when the when U. S. and Israel waged a war on Iran, Prime Minis Modi was in Israel. He was he was on a three day trip with Bibi Netanyahu and they were both posing for pictures and they were doing these hugs and whether Netanyahu told him about the war , the impending war or did not, in both the situations, Mudhi looked, I mean, it was a he lost face because you are visiting Israel and suddenly the next day Israel bombs Iran . And then India, which has been a longstanding ally of Iran, does not say a single statement condemning the murder of A itulahimeni . And then of course you know , when the U. S. torpedo the ship Iris Dinah, there was not a single statement from the Indian Prime Minister or even at the killing of the three naval officers by And I should just add for people, this is a ship, this is that had been in India, invited by the Indian government for, you know, kind of the invitation of many different countries for kind of military demonstrations and it gets sunk and all the people on board get killed , which was a huge embarrassment to me. But anyways, I just wanted to let people know that you know, India's foreign minister, Jae Shankar, or India's prime minister, I mean that ship was India's guest and there is Lebanon India and there's skilled Indians, Pakistanis and Sri Lankans. And you cannot bring yourself to condemn that action . You cannot bring yourself to condemn the action in which U. S. attacks an Indian naval ship which kills three Indians . And you know, in this meeting recently at the G seven when Modi and Trump were sitting and Trump is congratulating Modi personally and said he's only going to have good relationship with India as long as Modi is the prime minister . And it felt like it was Modi's own image control as opposed to being as opposed to being as opposed to negotiating with Trump as a country felt like it was more image building for Modi. So Modi's foreign policy policies mostly optics. Trump has berated India saying that he was the one who got a ceasefire between India and Pakistan through the through the war last year . And not once Indian Indian foreign office has said off the record that that Trump did not broker the deal, but Trump keeps on repeating this in every single press conference asking for a Nobel Peace prize. But till today , Modi has not said a word about this, Modi has not issued a statement. So I feel like and then you know, and then you see him posing for a picture of Georgia Maloney with a chocolate calling it chocolate diplomacy. I mean I'm no fan of Georgia Maloney. But when Trump said something about her begging for a selfie at, least she put out a statement saying, you know what? Neither does she nor Italy beg for her selfie. Where is India's self respect , right? So I feel like Indians are feeling the pinch and a big section a section of the Indian community and foreign policy officials are also feeling that if you do not stand for anything , right? If you are the democratic counterweight to China, if you believe you are the world's largest democracy, you need to stand for something and if you do not stand for anything then you will not you will lose all the respect that you believe the world should accord to you. Modi calls himself the Vishvaguru, the global leader. But where is this condemnation of what's happening and what's happening with in Palestine ? There's not been a single strong statement and and then you have Asin Moonir, the field marshal of Pakistan and the Pakistani prime minister now , you know, which which always India always said that it had isolated Pakistan, you know, in the world. I don't think this looks like isolation at all. In fact, it feels like he has given Pakistan a new lease of life. Trump has given Pakistan a new lease of life, but it has given new found legitimacy . So I feel like India stance as a big loser where foreign policy is concerned. Yeah, I've never seen actually Pakistan given the spotlight that Trump has put on it in this war. You already anticipated the second thing I was going to ask you about was that trip to Israel with Prime Minister Netanyahu in this kind of full embrace of Israel before the war . But I do want to ask one more question about the war, which is, I do want you to describe we've talked a bit about the shortages in India It's running low on fuel . We've seen reports about Indians having to ration cooking oil, about businesses and restaurants having to shut down , prices going up. What is the effect? Do ordinary Indians feel the pinch of this war, or is this just something that shows up more in kind of economic metrics? I think there has been a huge economic repercussion. Prime Minister Moiham has asked Indians to stop buying gold, stop travelling abroad, start working from home, stop flying , stop using air transport, you know, car pool , stop using their public transport. So I feel like we are feeling the p inch . The price of domestic fuel has increased . The price of petrol, CNG diesel has increased in India. And those who are feeling the pinch are the ones who are econom ically in the lower strata. So I feel like there is a great deal of resentment thanks to the water , which is why Modi's popularity is his twelfth year in power and I feel like for this very reason Modi's popularity is not the same as it was say last year . So the war on Iran has had repercussions and which is why Maudi is trying to do a lot of this internal stuff like stirring up anti Muslim sentiments in the country to kind of divert the attention from the real problem, which is a fuel crisis in India . Right now, small restaurants are shutting down, you know, small business owners are shutting down their business because they cannot afford it. People are not taking the flights. The airline business says that one of the biggest airlines in India has said that it plans to shut it will shut down if the Modi government does not take enough steps. So I feel like we have had real repercussions of the war and instead of giving us a solution or trying to kind of play a role in alley the fears of this of the country, what you see is Mohagi going on these foreign trips and you know and taking selfies with international leaders and I think that has angered a big section of the people, which is why something like a cockroach jointa party which has happened at just the right moment has become has become has got the popularity that it did because it's not happening in a void. It is happening at a time when there is rising unemployment , when the war on Iran has led to consequences in India, where people are losing their jobs, where poverty levels are increasing every day , where people in India cannot get by . So I feel like the outfits like the Kokujenda party are a result of this for a big reason the war on Iran and the crisis that is happening in the Strait of Hormuz. So Rana, that it's so helpful and help us understand what's going on in the cockroach movement in Indian foreign policy of Modi standing . Just to end here, what should we be looking for in terms of where the political opposition goes in the months ahead? How should we be thinking about things? Because obviously, Modi is still very entrenched in power . What are the signs that this might lead to actual more strong opposition? Or maybe Modi can recover as he has done multiple times? Well, at this point in time, Ben, the Indian opposition is exactly the same where it was a couple of months ago because they have we have had recent local elections for which Trump also congratulated Modi with which Modi had a sweeping victory. But that election happened in an atmosphere where it was not a level playing field. Modi has poached all the opposition leaders on his side where he has used central agencies to kind of to kind of level charges and level cases and get them on their side. The election system has not been the same. A lot of voters have been disenfranchised disenfranchised in India . So yes, a Kockro Janta party can make a difference, but when you have a country of one point four billion people and you still have big players like the Congress Party and other regional parties who are being systematically decimated using central agencies and using the Election Commission of India which seems to be compromised, I think Modi can even look for a third term in power