Economic Impact of the Strait of Hormuz

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Ben, today we wanted to debut a new segment with you called Great Moments in Oval Office History. Um here's today's entrance uh from President Trump. Let's watch. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Okay, why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor, okay? R ight. R ight? Right? Is that is is is World War II a sensitive subject in Japan? I cannot think of a more cringe moment. And who were the you know, people guffawing at first? And then when he actually dropped the Pearl Harbor reference, like he he couldn't even just be subtle, who knows more about secrecy than Japan? There's a someone like groaned uh spoke for all of us, I think. Uh I um I'll be honest, I watched that and I laughed out loud. I was like, that is just yeah, yeah, Jin King. Well, because he's just it's just such a of course he did that. Of course he did that, you know. Um Takeichi was like she like literally gasped. She's like, Her eyes look like they're gonna pop out of her head. It is uh wild anyway. That was um yeah, a real winner from our president, you know, just kind of like pinballing through the world, just kind of throwing his elbows at everybody, even like she's his al ly. One year and three months into it, Tommy, uh of the second term. But yeah, like uh she she later in the day, too had this bizarre thing where she did. You see where she said that Baron Trump was really good looking and he clearly got that from Donald? What? Uh yeah, it's still a little creepy. That's weird. Yeah. I mean, it's so funny because like all the reporting on her trip were like was like great success because she uh avoided a blow up. It's like what I feel like the relationship should be about a little more than that, but it's at a higher bar, yeah. Whatever. What are you gonna do? Uh by the way, Ben and I did a bonus episode last Friday for uh the Podta of the World YouTube where we dug into the first three weeks of the war with Iran. Uh so please subscribe to Podta the World on YouTube if you want more bonus episodes like that. It's also the venue where we find like the dumbest clips we possibly can of Pete Heg Seth or Trump or whatever. And we laugh at them so that we don't cry. Um, because otherwise we do a lot of crying. So when you subscribe to Pod Save the World on YouTube, when you rate it, when you review it, when you share the episodes, it really helps us grow the show it helps us get good factual information into the YouTube algorithm uh and displace the pro-war propaganda from Fox News in the Daily Wire. Speaking of which, Ben, um if you are sick of that shit in the credulous coverage of this war and you want to hear it discussed by people who are not in a coma for the last 20 years, who remembered the Iraq war and that it didn't go so well, please consider joining Crooked Media's friend of the pod subscription community. It is the number one thing you could do to help us grow as a company. You can sign up at crooked.com slash friends or right here on YouTube by pressing the join button. But our solemn pledge to you is it will never book Senator Lindsey Graham on the show unless he passes a breathalyzer test first. Does that work for you? Uh that works for me, Tommy. Or do we want him drunk? Do we want him to fail or pass? We we maybe just want him passed out and you just silent. Okay. Yeah. Uh I have a quick plug here. Uh so uh listeners may know my book, All We Say: The Battle for American Identity is out in late May, available for pre-order now, and uh for uh Wednesday and uh Thursday, the 25th and 26th, there is a special uh uh discount for pre-orders on Barnes and Noble. Nice. Uh and for your Barnes Noble member, which you may be, if you listen to this podcast, you get 25% off. I think everybody else gets 10% off. So uh check it out. Hell yeah. Also uh Ben Rhodes on Substack. Notes on the stories we tell. Okay. Enough plugs. Subscribe to all that shit. Um we're gonna talk today. We're gonna try to explain Trump's crazy 180-degree turn on Iran policy in the span of the last 48 hours. So he went from promising basically a series of war crime airstrikes on energy infrastructure to saying talks with Iran were so far along that the war was effectively over. Um we'll try to explain what happened, why it happened, and then we're gonna dig into the details of the US and Iranian demands and why getting a deal done feels quite difficult right now. Um we'll also cover what other countries in the Gulf are reportedly telling Trump, some recent US troop deployments um that seem ominous but important to watch. Then we're gonna explain why Iran firing a missile at a joint US UK base raised a lot of eyebrows. Um we'll talk about the growing cost of war and then update on the conflict in Lebanon. Then we're gonna look at some recent elections in Europe and explain what they tell you about the strength of far-right parties in Europe and how Trump might be impacting those parties. Uh, spoiler alert, not well. And then finally, there's a little fun story at the end about how a fitness app exposed the location of a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in the middle of the war. Uh, fun is always in air quotes on this show. And then you're going to hear my conversation with Edward Fishman, author of Choke Points, American Power and the Age of Economic Warfare. Then we get into all the economic costs of the war, um, the ways it has exposed, economic vulnerabilities, as he calls them, choke points. Um it' its's a very up your alley this convers ation. Uh yeah, underappreciated piece of how Trump is messing up things. So uh I'm excited to hear that. Yeah, just exposing our uh enormous weaknesses to the entire world. All right. Yeah. So let's let's try to understand the last forty eight hours. So it has been truly headspinning. On Saturday, Trump posted, quote, if Iran doesn't fully open without threat, the Strait of Horror moves within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. So again, that would be a war crime, but details, details. So this went over about as well as you'd expect in Iran. Uh the Speaker of Iran's parliament, uh Muhammad Bukare Ghalibaf responded with quote, immediately after our country's electricity and infrastructure are struck, we will consider vital infrastructure as well as energy and oil facilities throughout the region to be legitimate targets and will destroy them in an irreversible manner. So uh escalation ladder goes up and up. But then on Monday morning, just twelve hours before Trump's uh self-imposed deadline, Trump announced that Iran was getting a five-day reprieve from attacks on their power supply or oil infrastructure, uh power infrastructure, because the two sides were having very good and productive conversations. Now, everyone, especially the Iranians, seemed surprised by this claim. Uh, but our president elaborated on the talks uh and much more during press events on Monday and Tuesday. Here is some of what he said . They called. I didn't call. They called. They want to make a deal. We're in negotiations right now. JD is involved and And Jared Krishner's involved, very smart guy, and and uh Steve Whitcoft, smart guy, is involved, and I'm involved. We're dealing with the man who I believe is the most respected and the leader. If it goes well we're gonna end up with uh settling this. Otherwise we'll just keep bombing our little hearts out. They did something yesterday that was amazing actually. They gave us a present and the president arrived today. And it was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. You know, this is a change in the regime, uh, because the leaders are all very different than the ones that we started off with that created all those problems. So this was I think we can say Jason, this is regime change, right? We've won this w this war has been won. What about the straight of war moves? Who's gonna be in control of the maybe me Me and the Ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is. I said, Pete and General Raisin Cain, I think this thing's gonna be settled very soon. Here they go, oh, that's too bad. Pete didn't want it to be settled. Pete, I think you were the first one to speak up. And you said let's do it. We see ourselves as part of this negotiation as well. We're we we negotiate uh with bomb Maybe to give you a little bonus hexeth at the end there, because Trump is yeah setting him up to be blamed for the whole thing. Uh so listeners are probably asking what happened. Ben, do you want to take first crack at it? You want me to take first crack at it? And then with how do you want to go here? I mean here's what I I'll I will tell you what I think happened, right? Which is Trump threatens to start hitting power plants, civilian and energy infrastructure. That's a war crime, we should just say. When Vladimir Putin does that, you know, we get very upset as we should. Um then I think over the weekend, uh people got to him, and there's been some reporting on this, that the Gulf countries whose energy infrastructure would be destroyed by Iran if they made good on their threat to hit energy infrastructure. Got to him, the markets got to him because they could see he could see the price of oil skyrocketing. He could see futures. He could see the bond markets going in very dark direction. And so I think he was spooked. I don't think there was any negotiation whatsoever with the Iranians. Um the Iranians came out and denied it. It's a sad state of affairs that I believe the Iranians to be more credible than Trump. Now, I do think that there's probably a lot of frenetic diplomacy, and it's probably all intermediaries where Qatar, Oman, countries that are, you know, traditionally negotiators and are also being walloped economically and sometimes physically in this war, are probably trying to go back and forth and get messages from the Americans and the Iranians. But but I don't think there's some evolved negotiation here. I think Trump climbed down because of the markets and because what he was hearing from the Gulf. And but he had to somehow make it seem like he was about to get a deal. Uh we can get into also the potential market manipulation that went on here. But that statement was for the markets. And his pullback was because people got to him finally and said this would be madness to continue up the energy escalation ladder at the precise time that the global economy is being completely destroyed by this war and what's happening with respect to energy. Uh I hear that and I hear a man who has no idea what's going on, who has no idea what he started. He can talk about JD and Marco and Jared and Steve and the gang. Those guys have no idea what the hell is going on. The IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, controls the straightforward moose. Not even the Iranian government. The IRGC controls it. Their stuff is getting out, uh, other people's is not. That is how bad this war is. Donald Trump is losing this war. Not only is he not won it, he is actively losing the war. And and so he's just trying to kind of calm markets as if there's not a reality out there that, you know, is not going to bend to whatever his fiction is. And like the end state he describes there is co-ownership with the Iranians of the Straight Over Moose? With the Ayatollahs, you talking about the the uh the the Supreme Leader's uh the ex-Supreme leader's son who he was you know disparaging is is homosexual in some bizarre theater in the New York Post the other day. Like which eye toll is he talking about? Yeah, it's like they're talking about joint custody of Eric. Um uh like yeah my a couple uh my res I I I saw him do this on Monday morning. I thought this is entirely market manipulation. Like this is about oil and stock markets. And he woke up Monday morning, Trump saw the European markets were way off, Asian stock markets were getting crushed, and he wanted to punt that ball down the road. And so, you know, oh, lo and behold, you announces like a five-day reprieve, which is right until markets close on Friday. Um, there are some, as you mentioned, like there's some talks are happening, like a bunch of news outlets have reported that Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan met to try to find some sort of off-ramp to end the war. Apparently, Egyptian intelligence kind of led the outreach to the uh uh Iran's IRGC. But the the apparently the new interlocutor on the Iranian side is the guy I mentioned earlier, uh Speaker Galibaf, uh, who Trump seems to think can be his new like Delcy Rodriguez in Iran, which means like uh like in uh Venezuela, a leader that the US can install and control. But that is a hell of a lot easier said than done in Iran. And again, of the talks, Galibab said, our people demand the complete and humiliating punishment of the aggressors. No negotiations with America have taken place. Fake news is intended to manipulate financial and oil markets and to escape the quagmire in which America and Israel are trapped. That doesn't sound all that hopeful. And again, like the Iran is talking about hitting infrastructure like oil and gas, but also maybe desalination plants, which we've discussed before, like Kuwait gets 90% of its water from the sea, Saudi Arabia gets 70%. So that would be a huge crisis. And then just uh quickly on the corruption thing. So the Fincialan Times reported that traders made a half a billion dollars worth of bets in the oil markets 15 minutes before Trump's tweet announcing these talks. So a 6200 Brent or WTI features contracts, those are oil oil features, were bought and sold between 649 and 650 AM on Monday, 15 minutes before the Truth Social Post. The notional value of the trade was $580 million dollars. There was also a spike right at that time in the trading of SP futures. Uh and then maybe some sort of like uh European energy commodities too. I'm sure it was all just a coincidence, Ben. Uh, but someone made a lot of mone y. Yeah, and we saw this by the way before with the tariffs. When he did his climb down after Liberation Day, there was a lot of suspicious trading before that that made a lot of people a lot of money. And and again, like we need to spell this out because this is very plain what is happening. Donald Trump knows if he goes out and says and on to social that which is clearly a planned thing, right? It's not even like a kind of stand-up at a in front of the microphones, you know, with the Air Force One blasting away. Um, he knows he's gonna post at a certain time. Um, and he knows that that's going to bring down the price of world futures and and calm markets. If somebody has foreknowledge of that and trades, they can make an extraordinary amount of money. And again, either this is like the biggest coincidence in the world that someone had a premonition that there was going to be a post just like this or somebody knew or got tipped off and did this. And I'm sorry, like I we don't know, I'm not suggesting I know for a fact what happened. I am saying this is incredibly suspicious. And I can't think of anything more disgusting than somebody profiting off of a war, yeah, trading off a war, because Donald Trump is like turning the dial on oil prices up and down with his you know false claims about negotiations. I also say like to the markets, like which we talk about like as if it's a person, not the best day for them too. Like that they somehow are credulous of Donald Trump's claims. You know, like I I mean I know people are eager for this to end, but just 'cause he puts something on too social doesn't mean it's true. Well the Iranians, you know, uh it folds into this preexisting narrative, the the taco thing, right? Trump always chickens out and and that f works with tariffs and things he can turn on and off in controls. It doesn't work in the context of a war where Iran gets to shoot back. So Ben, but before we dig into the substance of the negotiations themselves and why getting a deal will be really difficult, I did want to play So this is um infamous pierogi hater and friend of Jeffrey Epstein, Alan Dershowitz. Let's watch. Had President Trump been in charge in nineteen thirty five-nineteen thirty-six, I think the Holocaust would have been prevented. I think he would have gone in after Nazi Germany. He would have destroyed it the way he is destroying Nazi Iran and the Holocaust would have been prevente d. Spot the lie. Uh I mean Alan Derschwitz's capacity, I know it's newsmax, but to get himself on television, uh is is pretty remarkable to me. I mean, all these Trump supporters, they can't even really like defend what's happening. They can't even give a plausible argument for why this was a good idea. So it's all this kind of insanity. Like well, he would have yeah, but you know, next thing he would have like prevented the civil war in this country. Or yeah, like this is we are just living with the stupidest people in the world, blowing smoke up this guy's ass when he the emperor has been revealed before the entire world to have no clothes, you know? I should also add, as a negotiating strategy, I just want to say to embrace the speaker of the Iranian parliament. If you think that's a good way to get that guy killed, either by the Israelis, who seem to want to kill anybody that could uh bring an end to this war as they did with uh Ali Larajani, or by the Iranians themselves. The IRGC you know, is not going to go along with the Delcy Rodriguez plan. They're just not. Like that is not an option here. There's maybe there's some cold peace that can be arrived at, and we can talk about that. But the idea that this Delcy Rodriguez play is going to work in Iran. What planet have you been on the last four weeks that you think that's possible? Ye ah. Pots A World is brought to you by Helix. Helix is the most awarded mattress brand. 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Offer only valid for new factor customers with code and qualifying auto-renewing subscription purchase. Make healthier eating easier with factor . Okay, so Mr. Dershowitz aside then. So here's why getting a deal uh done will be very hard. So first of all, um Iran doesn't trust the United States. And that's clear, right? We the Trump pulled out of the JCPOA when Iran was complying with it back in 2018. Last June, the White House was bragging about using talks with Iran as like subterfuge to help the Israelis plan their bombing raid. Remember that whole thing? And then uh in this most recent bombing uh raid, um the US and uh before this most recent conflict, the US and Iran came out of those talks saying, like, these were the most productive sessions yet. And then again, the US and Israel started bombing. So um they don't trust us to say the least. Second, Iran now thinks it has a lot of leverage, right? Like the Iranians decided that they screwed up before by being measured in response to the 12 day war or US bombing rates or whatever. Now they've decided and seen that they can uh fire missiles everywhere, cause regional chaos and like truly global economic damage. And that gives them a lot of leverage. And then third, I think Iran knows that if they reach just a temporary ceasefire, there's a good chance the US um in Israel are bombing them again in six months, twelve months, eighteen months. Right. So they want a long-term resolution. And so their list of demands is going to be extensive. Some of it has been floated in the press. Um I don't know how much of this is positioning or people who know what they're talking about versus don't, but just to summarize what I've seen, um I've seen them call for simultaneous ceasefires in Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq, the U. S. closing its military bases in the region, reparations for damage done during the war, sanctions relief, recognition of Iran's right to enrich nuclear materials, recognition of their right to develop nuclear ballistic missiles. Um Iran wants to treat a straight of horn moose like a toll road and to charge ships that go through it, a fee. Um so all of those are gonna be non-starters for Trump, for Gulf countries, for the Israelis, et cetera. And then uh you're also seeing like Crown Prince uh that raw these reports now that the Saudis are saying to Trump finish the job, decapitate the regime. There's also reports the UAE is making the same case and even considering getting directly involved in the fighting. And at the same time, Ben, Trump doesn't seem to have moved an inch on all of his demands, right? And so, like to your point about the markets being stupid, that to me, kind of gives up the whole game. Cause like what are the Iranians going to agree to now in this sort of like maximalist set of US and Israeli demands that they didn't agree to before, now that they feel like they have real leverage? Like I well, what am I missing here? I agree with everything you said. Um, and what I would add to it is we've made this point that the Iranian response, because of what you said, right, because of the feeling that they did not hit back hard enough in the 12-day war that that invited this kind of existential regime change war on them by the US and Israel. They have a clear theory of the case that they need to make this war so painful for the United States and the global economy that the United States won't do it again. And in Israel is a different story because like they they have their own um fixation on regime change. But everything the Iranians have done has suggested that this war has made the Iranian regime much more radical, like much more dug-in, because that's their only path to survival. They see diplomacy with Trump as something that they can't trust because they've been bombed twice during diplomacy. So they need to achieve their objectives in part through the war. The cost has to be prohibitive to the United States and global economy. We'll see if they can do that. Thus far, they're demonstrating that they can. And we'll see if they can hang on. And so to that end, anything they may not want that whole list, right? Reparations and all that rest. But whatever the end state is that they agree to probably has to be something that gives them the maximum assurance that they're not going to be bombed again. Yeah. So things like actual sanctions relief, right? This and the sanctions are gone. Like that, that would be a signal from the United States that this kind of conflict between the US and Iran is over. Yeah. Like you're back in the global economy. Like security arrangements maybe between Iran and the Gulf may have to be negotiated. Um, so anything that the Iranians agree to is going to have to be in that kind of space. The U.S. doesn't even really know what it's prioritizing here. If they want a nuclear deal, they can get one. There was one on the table before this war. As long as the Iranians can say they sell a nuclear program, they're just not going to pursue a weapon. By the way, that was the new nuclear deal under Obama. That's something Trump could get. Uh on but that's about it. I don't really know. But the Iranians don't seem to concede. So he may have to talk about taco. Like he may have to accept a much more radical government in some ways more empowered because they've shown what they can do um and and and make concessions to them for the kind of same nuclear deal he could have had without launching this war in the first place. It's crazy. Yeah, it's crazy. I was talking to someone uh who a an Iran expert today who um has been involved in uh what are called like track two negotiations. Those are like conversations with people who have ties to uh the Iranian government, but aren't a part of government, but are like kind of clued in enough that you can float diplomatic possibilities, right? And uh this person said that like the Europeans seemed really excited about the talks, but the Iranian officials this person talked to were dug in and way more so than usual. This person also said that um the Gulf countries, like the stuff you're seeing reported about some of the various Gulf countries, like the UAE saying finish the job, that is 100% true. They are pissed and they are angry. Yeah, yeah, no, I I wanted to say one thing about that. The the the UAE in particular, it they, if you look at the straight of four moose, right? Um What you see is are these kind of small countries like the UAE and Qatar, they're the ones that just cannot get their energy, the oil and gas out without the strait being opened. And so the reason why I think it may be true that the UAE wants this finished or in some fashion is they know that if it stops now, the IRGC runs the straightforward moves like a toll road. And so I whether they wanted a war or not, like they need the strait opened and they don't trust that the RGC is gonna like let their stuff through. Saudis, I'm still uh like I I well maybe that's true, maybe it's not, because the Saudis have a lot to lose if this war goes on. But but that definitely uh strikes me is true. But I think they don't even know what does it mean for the war to end. And it's probab ly a version of like a frozen conflict. You know, this war is not unlike the war in Ukraine. The US thought it would be cakewalk. The US thought that it that the regime would collapse and the first blitzkrieg happened, and it didn't.. Yeah And Pete Hexeth can like talk all he wants about bombs. Bombing gets less effective, not more. I mean, we've hit a lot of these targets. Um, they know that uh they can weather it. And so then the question becomes: does this kind of just continue until it kind of freezes in place at some point and you deal with bits and pieces of this, like the Strait of Hormuz, or does the US put boots on the ground and really try to destroy the regime, which could lead to an implosion of around. Let's get to the bootsling in a second. So but th this person this who was involved in these track two um negotiations also pointed out that like y Galibaff actually is a credible messenger and someone who you could maybe do business with, but Trump is probably kneecapping the guy by talking about him all the time, right? Like you uh it's just it seems like the worst strategy. Um, the a lot of folks I've talked to did take a little hope uh or see a little hope in the fact that there's reports that JD Vance might get involved in the talks. It would be a good thing because for first of all, it would take it out of the hands of like you know, Jared Kushner and Steve Wickoff, who have proven themselves to be bumbling fucking idiots. Um, but also, you know, JD Vance would probably only get involved if it was ready to get over the finish line and seems like someone who at least has told us in the past that he's, you know, would wouldn't want this war to be over. But it doesn't seem like he's really involved yet. You know, you heard that quote from Trump uh a minute ago where he's like, uh JD's involved, I'm involved, Marco's involved, right? So that he's just like naming everybody while blaming Pete for the war happening. Um and then Ben again, like this person said the best case scenario might be an outcome where like Trump essentially has to bribe Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and get us back to the status quo ante from before the war. Which we basically saw that process start last week when the US let Iran make about $14 billion by selling 140 million barrels of Iranian oil. So um real quick, here's a clip of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent from over the weekend on Meet the Press talking about this decision. And then I want to get your reaction to it because this is a touchy subject in Obama world. Let's watch. Is the president in the process of winding down this war or escalating the conflict? Again, they're not mutually exclusive. Sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate. More than $14 billion of oil revenue. Why is the U.S. helping to fund a country that it's currently at war with, Mr. Secretary? Again, Kristen, why don't we have good facts here? That Iranian oil was always going to be sold to the China So which which is better, Kristen? The uh seven the which is better? If they were gonna if oil prices spiked to $150 and they were getting seventy percent of that or oil prices below a hundred. It's better to have them where they are now. And to be clear, we had always planned for this contingency. About 140 million barrels are out on the water. In essence, we are jujitsuing the Iranians. We are using their own oil against them. It's uh a jujitsu move to let the Iranians make billions of dollars to help them fund a war that they are fighting against you. By the way, speaking of jujitsu and planning then, I read uh I can't remember where, maybe the Times or the Journal over the weekend, that the strategic petroleum reserve, the US one, was only sixty percent full at the start of this war. So clearly no one had done any planning for this thing. Uh what do you make of that decision to relieve sanctions on Iran during a war with I ran. Uh I I've been practicing mindfulness, Tommy. How's it going? I I I I uh I did I've been I I've done some hot yoga, um just so people know. Uh because I'm just trying to get more in touch with my body. Um and so I'm gonna uh incorporate these practices now. But I I uh I'm gonna do a little history here. Um the first piece of history is that in the Obama administration, you may recall that uh as part of the Iran nuclear deal coming into effect, and also a prisoner release from Iran, including our friend Jason Razine, that the United States allowed Iran to receive $400 million, that they were owed. And it's a long story that had to do with the fact that the Iranians paid for some weapons uh back when the Shah was there. The weapons were never delivered. A court decided who owed them the money. Yes, exactly. Anyway, they got four hundred million dollars and and the MAGA world and the APAC world and all the BB lovers out there online have spent 10 years. I do I cannot post something online without somebody posting a meme about like pallets of cash because some of the 400 million was delivered in pallets of cash. Um now you can argue about whether or not you like that deal or not, but the reality was it was 400 million dollars of money that Iran had was owed under international law. This is 14 billion dollars. This is like, I mean, I'm not a math expert. This is like leaps and bounds more than the 400 million. It is in the middle of a war. It is being given to the Iranians because of the rank and competence of the Trump administration and launching a war that they clearly thought was gonna be a cakewalk and running into a buzzsaw instead, even though everybody could have predicted this. All of the people that spent 10 years like clutching their pearls about the 400 million dollars in pallets of cash. I guarantee you every single one of those fucking people support this idiocy, support this war, will not trash Trump for giving around $14 billion, literal tankers full of cash. And Scott Besson, like has had this you know, shtick he pulls where he's the grown-up and the smart one who talks to the quote unquote markets. He has no you can listen to him there. He doesn't even know what he's talking about. And when he talks about how we've been planning for this we've been play so okay, two things could be true here. One is that these people are so incompetent that the only way they can bring oil prices down is to let the Iranians make $14 billion as a starter. Who knows where it's going to go from there? Never mind that the Russian uh are out also out from under uh sanctions. But let's like the the the the good scenario, the best that B and scessenarioon says is that they actually planned th this all along. That it was part of the war plan. Yeah. He's like this like cadaver on TV, like getting all mad at Kristen Welker asking basic normal questions like Well it's it's 'cause if they plan for it, you're telling me that you knew the war was gonna go so bad that you're gonna have to start waving sanctions on the Iranians in the middle of it. So it's either the dumbest fucking plan ever or the dumbest fucking war ever. Okay. And and there's not another option here. Yeah, no, there is not. Sorry, got the pallets of cash off my chest. Hey, that's why I brought it up, brother. Uh also the Houthis still haven't come into this conflict yet, so things get worse. Well, one thing we're really watching closely, Ben, is um it's just worth noting that a bunch of US ships and Marines are heading to the Middle East, and some will be there by Friday when this sort of five-day pause uh ends. Right now, um, you know, the it's like the USS Tripoli, it's an amphibious assault ship is on its way uh from I think Asia with 2200 Marines. There's a similar ship called the USS Boxer that's en route from San Diego with another 2200 Marines. Um I just saw reports of the Pentagon has ordered members of the 82nd Airborne, the immediate response force to deploy to the Middle East. That's uh a reaction force, about 3,000 troops who can be basically anywhere they need to be in 18 hours. So these amphibious assault ships, they are like aircraft carriers, but not aircraft carriers in that they don't have catapults to like launch planes off. But um the uh the the hairier style jets can take off from them, the F-35Bs, they can do the vertical takeoff and landing, and then major um helicopters like ospreys uh work off of them. And more importantly though, they have uh a lower deck where you can launch uh ships, assault ships. So like if you wanted to send a bunch of Marines to Carg Island, for example, you would probably use an amphibious assault ship like the USS Boxer or the Tripoli. So it's all a way of saying there's just a lot of military assets steaming to a location in in the past year or so, when that has happened, Donald Trump has used those military assets to further a war. Yeah, we said on this podcast for months, pay attention to the military force gathered off the coast of Venezuela. It was going to be used. And this has eerie reminders too of the run-up to the war in Iran, because while Trump was saying he wanted a deal, they were building up this massive armada uh to uh uh strike Iran, the largest massing and military force in the Middle East since the Iraq war. Now, whatever Trump is saying about, you know, we're negotiating and it looks great and the Iranians are calling me, there is a methodical deployment that is going forward that could only have the purpose of supporting a ground operation in Iran. Now, whether that's to seize nuclear materials at Isfahan in central Iran, whether that's to try to seize Karg Island as some kind of leverage on the Iranians. We don't know. What we do know is that's what these troops do, and that's what this hardware does. Um and so that's very disconcerting. And it it I one other thing I want to say is that I I don't get the sense do you get the sense Tommy that that he's listening to any Iran experts? No. All he ever you know he doesn't seem to understand the mentality. And the reason this matters is that the mentality Iranians is they're gonna fight. You take Karg Island, they'll keep fighting. They're not gonna surrender. Like it's like Afghanistan. It's like what you know, what we dealt with in Iraq. Like these are people that are pissed, you know, if they were chatting death to America before we bombed their country and killed thousands of them. Can you imagine what their mentality is now? And so the idea that one lightning special operation like Hollywood thing that Trump likes is gonna solve this problem, it's not. I hope I really hope this doesn't go forward. Or if you yeah, like early on, Trump was talking about regime change. There's a bunch of reporting over the weekend in the Times that uh the Israelis and the Mossad had basically sold Trump on this idea that they could foment regime change or maybe use the Kurds to uh begin a regime change operation. Obviously that didn't happen. But yeah, to your point, I mean now I think fifteen hundred people are dead in Iran. Uh we bombed a girls' school. Trump is threatening to blow up their power plants. Like that is not going to lead to an uprising in a way that's positive. Um one other thing that just w was worth mentioning, Ben, because I think um this incident blew up in the kind of wonky arms control like Iran nerd circles that we traffic in over the weekend was Iran fired two missiles at a place called Diego Garcia, which is this joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean. Neither missile hit its target. One seems to have failed en route. The other might have been taken out by US missile defense systems. But Iran seeming to be able to target something 2,500 miles away surprised a lot of people because the previous sort of conventional wisdom was that Iran's missiles only had a 2,000 kilometer range. Uh but Diego Garcia is four thousand kilometers away. And so that led a lot of people, especially war supporters, to say, see, Iran is lying. They always lie, like it is an imminent threat to the US. This is why we had to go to war. And I think um it's worth just offering some context on that. So like first of all, the two thousand kilometer limit on Iran's ballistic missiles was one voluntarily put in place by the Iranians. But I think every real like Iran expert uh questioned it first of all and whether they were telling the truth, but also knew that Iran could take some simple steps to increase the range of those missiles, like reducing the size of the warhead. If you make the thing lighter, it can go further. Um, they also knew that Iran has been researching space launch technology, which is essentially ICBM technology, and maybe they could use that as a dual purpose. Um and then finally, uh, if you bomb a country, um, if you go to war with Iran, they're probably going to do away with some of the previous self-imposed limits on their military technology. So uh again, not really surprising in any way. But Ben, I mean, how big a deal did you think this was? I I thought it was notable. Not necessarily a huge deal. B they're trying to fire at everything they possibly can. They're trying to make it feel like the reach of their weaponry uh it puts at risk all U.S. military facilities within range of any weapon they have. And so this is just one more example of them kind of trying to emp empty the kit um to make the U.S. feel vulnerable everywhere. It now we don't know that this signifies like a substantial additional capability in terms of the range of their ballistic missiles. It didn't like you know make contact with like the target either. Um so to me, it's just the Iranians, you know, messaging again. And yeah, you're right. Like they're innovating on the fly. I mean, one thing that happens in wartime, we've seen this in Russia and Ukraine, is that when you're under the immense pressure of an existential war, you just start innovating, you just start trying new things. And that could be what's happening here. It's also the case that I just don't trust at all the briefings from the United States and Israel, including the US military. Yes. Right. Because like they they told us that you know I think ninety percent of Iranian ballistic missiles are out of destroyed in launchers. Meanwhile, they keep firing them every day. I was talking to someone who's an expert in this stuff, um, who's by the way, like more MAGA than not. Uh, and this person was saying this stat from DOD and the Israelis that Iran is like there's been a 90% reduction in launches since day one is total bullshit. Iran is still firing ballistic missiles. More of them are getting through. They're having more devastating consequences. They have clearly figured out how to adapt to hide them to husband resources. Um and stats relative to day one are just it's meaningless because Iran is playing a long game, right? And like that is what's so frustrating about the bullshit you hear from Heg Seth and even from Dan Cain, who I think is much more like honest and honorable in those briefings, but still is falling way short of where a previous chairman would be. Way short. And we have to name this, right? Because the people in the military, you know, don't have to go along with this. And they don't have to put out bullshit, you know, uh information because it makes Hegsath feel like he has a more macho uh Fox Friends briefing that he can give. Um this it's disappointing to me. Because I don't know how to trust it anymore. How do you trust people? I mean, Trump said that the all of Iranian's military capability was destroyed. We know that's BS. But this 90% figure we we've heard for a while, like what we're seeing with our own eyes in terms of Iranian ballistic missile launches, including against Israel, um, is is i suggests that that's just not true. Yeah, I mean look on Tuesday an Iranian ballistic missile hit Tel Aviv. It caused a bunch of damage, uh injured four people. Over the weekend, an Iranian ballistic missile hit a town near uh Israel's nuclear research facility. Iran seems to be doing a lot of kind of like tit for tat strikes. Like if you hit uh near uh one of our nuclear sites, we'll hit yours. Um like I said, you know, fifteen hundred people are believed to be dead in Iran. Uh the Strait of Hormuz is is basically closed. Like a huge chunk of the world doesn't have access to energy, fertilizer. There could be a global, you know, food shortage, political instability and starvation. So everything is getting worse. Um Donald Trump keeps saying, oh yeah, we have air supremacy. We sunk their Navy. Well, you know, we had air supremacy over the Taliban for 20 years. They didn't have a Navy there and what happened in that war. Um let's turn to Lebanon Ben because you did an um an excellent interview last week with Kim Gaddis about uh Israel's military campaign in Lebanon that I think folks should listen to in in full. But unfortunately, a lot of what she talked about in that conversation is coming to pass um because it looks like Israel isy planning to occup parts of Lebanon. Uh the Israeli defense minister, Israel Katz, said on Tuesday that Israel is going to control the territory in southern Lebanon up to the Latani River, which is about 15 or 20 miles from the border between the two countries. So hundreds of thousands of people have uh had to flee their homes already from the south. Um, overall, there's more than a million people displaced in Lebanon, which is about a fifth of the population, and Israel is now bombing bridges that cross the Latani River. I think there's been five of them total that have been blown up. By the way, did you see one of the bridges? I mean, there was a RT correspondent doing a stand-up right next to it as it was bombed. The guy was almost killed. It's horrifying. So um the IDF says they're bombing these bridges because they're preventing the flow of Hezbollah fighters into southern Lebanon, but obviously bombing these bridges is going to cut off any remaining civilians in the area and then potentially cut them off from food, water, like any humanitarian access. So it will lead to a crisis. Um and stepping back, I mean remember Lebanon, uh Hezbollah entered this most recent iteration of the war by firing rockets at Israel after Israel killed the Supreme Leader of Iran. Um, as you discussed with Kim, I think, Ben, the the Lebanese government and a lot of citizens of Lebanon are furious at Hezbollah, including Shia, um, for dragging them back into this war, but they can't do anything about it because Hezbollah has the guns. So Ben, I just I imagine it's hard for our listeners to imagine um like wrap your heads around the scale of this evacuation order because you're talking about like eight hundred thousand people to a million people getting displaced in a country of like well, I think five, six million people. And I was talking to a friend with family in Beirut who said that one thing compounding the problem is that everyone is afraid of strangers right now because um you don't want to rent a room in your building to someone you don't know who is displaced from southern Lebanon. Cause what if that person has a connection to Hezbollah or is perceived to have one from uh the Massad and your building gets bombed by the IDF, right? Like, and so that is gonna further exacerbate sectarian tensions. Um, it is all very bad, and it's likely to get worse because the Israelis are talking about the Lebanon conflict as one that would extend beyond the Iran conflict. And also Ben, the press keeps talking about Israel creating a buffer zone. It's like what? They're they're annexing and occupying territory. Like call it what it is. Absolutely. Uh uh I mean uh you covered it well. Uh I think what I would focus on is what is Israel's objective here, right? Because there's something in the Diego P. Garcia piece ties into this. The Israel and you know, Netanyahu and then all the kind of APAC adjacent think tankers. Um if if the enemy is strong, it's a reason to go to war with them. And if the enemy is weak, it's a reason to go to war with them. Really good point. And and and so let's just look at Israel's track record since October 7th. Because what they've done is destroyed a lot of things. But let's think about what they have actually accomplished strategically. Right. They were we heard we heard that they were going to destroy Hamas. They didn't Hamas. Hamas is still in Gaza. They destroyed Gaza. They killed tens of thousands of children. Hamas is still there. Then all these, you know, APAC uh types, you know, they can't stop talking about the pager operation. Remember the operation where they blew up a bunch of Hezbollah guys and some other people by like, you know, infiltrating their pagers? Well, guess what? Hezbollah's still there, you know, Hezbollah's still in Lebanon. You know, uh did they solve that problem? No. The twelve day war, that we obliterated the Iranian nuclear program. We're back. They keep destroying things and coming back and destroying more things. And so if we just take Lebanon, what is the objective here? Because they are destroying Lebanon, right? They've got a fifth of the population displaced. They're turning people against each other. The politics are becoming more toxic. They are blowing up apartment buildings just to kill a few Hezbollah targets in them. So they're killing a lot of people there. Um to what end? And and and this this this area that they're occupying, you know, you've got Ben Gavir talking about, you know, and is a pretty senior minister in the Israeli government annexing southern Lebanon. Um, and meanwhile, the American media credulously describes it as a buffer zone. They're blowing up bridges. Buffer to what? Like it it would and it would we be describing if this was any other place on earth, you know, if Mexico took, you know, 15 to 20 miles into Texas. Yeah. Or we get it to Canada. Because they said, you know, yeah, if we did that to Canada, I don't think we would could just be like, well, these guys need a buffer zone. Like, no, there's sovereign borders. Like this isn't even the West Bank. Like, Lebanon has had a border that's been internationally recognized for a very long time. And they're they're basically uh just destroying that core tenant of international law. Yeah, it's uh it's a really bad situation that is going to get worse before it gets better. And and by the way, we have not had time like it Iran has kind of blotted out the sun on the show, but and we have not had time to talk about what's happening in the West Bank with this wave of settler violence that's kicked off since the war started. But it's something we should get back to because um it is truly awful and and and worth highlight ing. This podcast is sponsored by Squarespace. Squarespace is the all-in-one website platform designed to elevate your online presence and drive your success. Squarespace provides all the necessary tools to claim your domain, build a professional website, expand your brand, and facilitate payments, making it the ideal solution for businesses of all sizes. 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Like I, you know, I think we were speculating on the show early on in earlier this year that we could be heading towards uh far-right parties controlling big swaths of Germany in 2026 and then even the French presidency in 2027. Um, that obviously could still happen, but there have been some bumps in the road thanks to our president, Donald Trump, um, because it turns out that trying to annex Greenland is not that popular. It turns out that starting an idiotic war with Iran is not that popular. Um, and here's some evidence for you guys. So the most obvious impact of Trump's polici es come to us from Denmark. Uh, folks probably remember Denmark governs uh Greenland. The Danish Prime Minister Meta Frederickson called early elections to capitalize on her popularity after she got in this big fight with Trump over Greenland. We don't have results as of this recording, but going into the race, she was seen as the front runner. And there was a great piece in The Atlantic this week about how the far-right nationalist populist Danish People's Party in Denmark went from super pro-Trump to one of its members saying, quote, let me put it in words you might understand, Mr. Trump, fuck off. So that's a bit of a change. In Italy, Prime Minister Georgia Maloney's right-wing government just lost a judicial reform referendum pretty badly. It was 54 to 46. The underlying issues are pretty technical and wonky, so we're just gonna skip past them because they don't really matter for this. But what to what you should know is it became seen as a referendum on Georgia Maloney. Uh and she lost. And now she's seeing headlines like this one uh from Politico: quote: Referendum defeat brings Italy's Maloney crashing down to earth, right? So that's just again, the mood music is bad for her. Uh in Slovenia, there was a parliamentary election over the weekend, and this center left Freedom Party is barely leading the right wing Democratic Party. Uh, but this race has interesting ties to Victor Orban in Hungary uh and an organization called Black Cube that is near and dear to our hearts here, podse of the word. So let's put a pin in that one and come back to it. Um and then finally, Ben, in France, there were a bunch of municipal uh municipal elections. The results were a mixed bag. Uh the far-right national rally party had some successes, but like every party had some successes. The centrist had some successes, the left had some. Um, but national rally won seats in smaller towns and smaller cities, but failed to win its biggest target, which is Marseille, which is France's second biggest city. And it's also in a region that is a stronghold for the national rally and has been for a while. Emmanuel Gregoire, the center left socialist, he won the runoff election in Paris. National Rally continues to do terribly in Paris. But then it, you know, and interestingly,, Ben in previous elections, like the key to defeating the far right was getting all the parties from the center to the left united in opposition. But I was listening to, I think, a this BBC political analyst talking about how in this past election, um, a lot of the socialist parties fared better if they rejected the far left because the far far left has become so toxic under Melancholy. So it's a bit of a mess. Um I guess I'm gonna choose to take a little bit of hope away from these results um while also stealing myself for the reality that, you know, an economic crisis or a migration crisis because of the Iran war is the kind of thing that will fuel uh the far right in Europe. And also like, you know, these are very low turnout elections while the presidential elections see closer to 75 85 percent but any takeaways from you based on what you watch ed so a couple of small things and then the big thing right so on slovenia, um, there are a lot of converging threads here for pots of the world listeners. Cause one thing is Black Cube is this group of former Mossad agents um that spied on me back in uh, you know, the good old days of the first Trump term. Um and and and you know, uh I I I I think widely th they they traffic in these kind of far right circles. So they also notably have done some work in Hungary over the years to discredit Victor Urban's opponents. And so shortly before the election, a few days, a group of journalists and activists in Slovenia did their own investigation and it exposed these black cube ties to the far-right candidate who was way up in the polls in Slovenia. One of them was Anika Kovac, who's a friend of mine who's been on this podcast before, talking about her advocacy on reproductive rights in Europe. And that did not go over well in Slovenia because people saw it as foreign election interference. So a group of a bunch of former Mossad people making contact with the far right there to help him uh come to power. And so you had this surge at the end for the very progressive Prime Minister of Slovenia. And you essentially had a photo finish and actually a slight lead for the progressive. Now we'll see what happens in government information, et cetera, but a significant underperformance in Slovenia, sm for the far right in Slovenia, which is often seen as kind of a bellwether, you know, of where politics are going in Central Europe, particularly ahead of the Hungarian election in April. So that's good. Um, in Italy, Maloney, you know, these constitutional referendums ha have often been bellwethers. So Matteo Renzi, for instance, was the more progressive prime minister of Italy at the end of the Obama years. He staked a lot on a constitutional referendum to amend, you know, the the the electoral laws in Italy. He lost and that was seen as kind of you know letting the air out of the balloon for Renzi, he lost the next general election. Now Maloney, you know, kept she had a kind of odd political strategy with this referendum. At first, she kind of didn't campaign that hard for it, but then she got involved. She definitely lost. She lost significantly. And so this kind of or invincibility around her has been punctured. And she's the most talented far-right pop politician in Europe. By far, yeah. So by far. And I talked to some friends there um uh who said that in the lit later last days of the campaign, all the energy right in the streets and online was with the opposition. Suddenly young people uh are are getting motivated to cut, you know, oppose Maloney. That's a big deal. And so then that leads me to kind of where are we big picture? Well, look, this could still go horribly wrong. Like they could still win the French presidential election, they could still make gains in Germany, the far right over time. But we're not seeing that kind of groundswell. Like even in mixed results in France, people were worried there was gonna be like this wave of uh national rally candidates getting elected. That didn't happen. And I think Trump's recklessness and his interventions in European politics are not helping these far-right parties. Yeah. And that to me is the headline. You know, people can see this is what far right leadership looks like. And I don't know if I want that. And I certainly don't want Donald Trump and JD Vance coming over here and trying to mess around in my politics, or for that matter, BB Nanyanyahoo and bat Black Cube. Yeah. And lecturing me and like trying to ride herd and tell us what to do. Um, Ben, did you see who won the mayoral race in the little French town of uh R.C. Sorob e? I missed it. Uh Hitler, Charles Hitler. What? What? Charles Hitler with two T's. Did you see that one coming? He's an independent candidate who won his reelection over Zelensky. Antoine Zelensky. This is a real thing that happened in France. Did you find this? Charles Hitler I was watching some what what what's like French twenty four? Like some YouTube thing and they did a big piece on uh Chucky Hitler. Like what what that tells me is dream big dreams, kids. Because l most of you would probably think if your last name is Hitler, you can't run for office. But Charles showed the naysayer is wrong. Would wouldn't you explore a name change if it's Oh god, yeah. If you're a politician, go with the silent H or something. Either yeah. Anything. Hither, hither, hither. There's a H in there and me. Hither's a nice or come hit come hither. Yeah, Hank, Charles, like flip him around. I don't know anything else. Uh finally, Ben. So we got a lot of stories, a lot of wars lately, like information leaks. They're flying at us from every direction. Got poor uh Mushtaba Hamene having his sexuality questioned, as you mentioned earlier, because WikiLeaks published a report that he sought E D treatment in the UK. The Massad report clearly not himself, which is you know sponsored this podcast in the Saba, we got you covered. We got we got a code for you, buddy. The Massad was hacking Iran's traffic camera to track like the Supreme Leader through Tehran. The White House had the the infamous signal gate fiasco. But today's uh OPSEC story comes to us via a familiar name to longtime PodSave the World listeners. Strava. Uh accord you use Strava, Ben. So like you basically log your jogs. Okay. Well, you make make sure it's set on uh private. Because according to Lamonde, a seaman that they're referring to as Arthur went for a jog on the deck of a French nuclear powered aircraft carrier, uh the Charles de Gaulle, uh, and logged his very respectable four point five miles in thirty five minutes on his smartwatch, which unfortunately was linked to Strava, which was set to public. So anyone who looked could see these little curly cues through the Mediterranean and thus locate the ship, which is a bit of a no no um when you have the Iranians firing missiles um at Diego Garcia or other bases, you know, thousands, thousands of miles away. Um, this was not the first Strava incident. I'm sure you remember this. We've covered this on the show before. It's been used to pinpoint Joe Biden's travel thanks to Secret Service agents working out. Um uh so-called Strava heat maps identify the locations of secret US military bases and CIA facilities all over Africa in the Middle East. They've like the running routes have been used to identify the exact perimeter of CIA bases in Syria and Afghanistan and the list goes on and on. So just a little advice to Arthur and all the other Strava fans uh deployed overseas by a stopw atch. So this lit up my Strava group chat Tom. Oh nice. Um I was actually on this right away because I I'm a big devotee of Strava. I'm actually here on my kids' spring break. You know you can track your skiing on Strava too. Uh I will show you uh all my skiing has been logged. I got a vertical feed, I've got a heat map of everywhere I skied. Um thankfully I'm not in a sensitive military theater. I will tell you also that I know some people, including some friends we have in common, who told me that when you go to these deployments, you know, like in eastern Syria or something, where you're like on an airstrip basically living in a trailer, the only thing to do is work out. Is to like is to run. It's not like a mall. You know what I mean? So so uh like these guys get in really good shape because they're just like jogging around this airstrip and the Strava thing is probably the only thing interesting for them, like you know, tracking their time. So uh we need to have an encrypted uh Strava app or something. Yeah, listen, I get it. Also, I recently became a Fitbit guy. Am I proud of it? No. Does it look cool? Absolutely not. Um do I find it useful? Yes. So here we are. But yeah, I mean, if I were um well, I mean it's like the there's still an underlying problem of if you're jogging with your phone, like someone can track your GPS, right? Yeah. So yeah, yeah. God only knows what the Russians are doing. But also, I mean, actually, Strava has got uh some some Russian soldiers got got fucking around in Ukraine back in the day before anyone knew about it because they were using Strava to to to you know, I think uh the Massad got got too. So I don't know. It's um Rave New World out there, buddy. These these apps are all pen you know, like I I've heard from people in the business that like, you know, if you wanna have a l like people use like grinder to like have like private chats, you know, like like it's just all these ways to penetrate apps and to communicate, to locate, to disparage, you know, all these all these things. It's the dystopia we live in Grinder is one good way to penetrate. Okay. We are gonna take a quick break. When we come back, we're going to listen to uh my conversation with Edward Fisherman. He's the author of Choke Points: American Power and the Age of Economic Warfare. We're going to talk about all the economic costs of the war with Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hammuz, all the ways it's exposed, massive economic vulnerabilities for the United States, so stick around for that .me. Let me ask you something. Are you satisfied with the current state of your career? Or are you waking up every day wanting to make a move but not sure how to get there? 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That's strawberry.me slash world. It's like therapy for your care er. Hiya, I'm Elena. Just your average walking, talking, dancing, singing puppet. A puppet that loves an LNER train genie. It beats the C E R every time. I'm free to do all the things I love. Get lost in a true crime series, type away like an office ninja, or order yummy food and drinks to my seat, or just have a cheeky power nap. And now, with more services and faster journey times, there's more freedom all the way with LNEO Selected routes only. Visit lnar.co.uk slash timetable for deta ils . My guest today is an expert on sanctions. He's the director of the Center for Geoeconomics of the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of Choke Points, American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare. Edward Fishman. Welcome to the show. Thanks for having me on today, Tommy. Thank you for doing this. So um we're talking about Iran here and the and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the economic cost of it. The head of the IEA, the International Energy Agency, said that this closure of the Strait of Humuz is the greatest threat to global energy, quote, in history. That sounds bad. Um, can you help us understand what does that mean exactly and how alarmed we should be about the outlook for the global economy because of this energy supply shortage? Sure. Well I'd say alarmed is probably the short answer. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important maritime choke point. Before this war, about twenty percent of global oil and twenty percent of liquefied natural gas flowed through the Strait of Hormuz on any given day. So that's, you know, uh two out of every 10 barrels of oil to very substantial percentage of global oil supplies. And frankly, we never have had this much oil come off the global marketplace. You go back to 2022, the last time we had a big oil price spike in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We actually didn't even have any supply disruption. But let's say we did. Russia only sells five million barrels of crude oil on another two and a half million barrels of petroleum products each day. So it's less than half of what's being disrupted right now at the Strait of Port Mooves. So we are dealing with a monumental shock to the global energy system. And there's really not an end in sight so far. Yeah. Um and then look I I know that Iran's hit oil refineries and gas facilities in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Um Qatar says 17% of its export capacity has been damaged maybe for three to five years to get it all fixed. Um the the there's also you know some oil fields are calling enforced major on their contracts. Um if the war ended tomorrow and the strait was fully opened, how long do you think it would take to kind of fix the damage that has been done already and to kind of get us back to where we were? I mean, to get to a status quo ante, it would take years. I mean Ross Lafon, the uh the LNG facility you just mentioned in Qatar is the world's largest LNG facility. And just so to understand, I mean liquefied natural gas has become increasingly important since twenty twenty two because Russia, which had been exporting a lot of the pipeline gas that went to Europe, has no longer a reliable supplier. And so our European allies have been increasingly dependent on importing natural gas uh that's liquefied into a uh you know into a cool liquid and sent on tankers. Well a lot of that is coming from cutter. And to your point, uh the cutteries have said that that facility is not going to be back to 100% for several years. But setting that aside, I mean, even just to unwind the snarls and supply chains, it's going to take several months. Uh, Iraq has shut in oil. Uh refineries have cut back their runs. And these are really exquisite, complicated systems that once you turn them off, they can take quite a long time to turn back on. Yeah, I've read that you know if you permanently shut a well, um it can get clogged, like paraffin wax can build up. You can you can take like you have to blast right hot oil in there to try to free it up. I don't know what the hell I'm talking about. I regurgitating things I read in the F T. Um has any of that happened yet? Have they have they permanently shut down any wells yet or are we still gonna get to that point? Oh yeah. Yeah. I mean Iraq had to shut in uh wells within a few days of the con of the conflict starting. I mean, it's because a lot of these uh these oil producers, they had already filled up their storage. And if you think about it, you had all of these tankers that are stranded in the Gulf and they have nowhere to go. And so yes, you've already had a significant percentage of oil shut in. Oof, not good. So you know in the US, this conversation kind of manifests uh is it's often about higher gas prices, right? Like gas prices are up a buck nationally or something like that. Um but um internationally in other parts of the world, it's much worse. Like there's reporting out uh about Bangladesh closing universities to conserve electricity, Nepal is rationing cooking gas. Schools are going remote in Pakistan. I think I heard Laos has closed down 40% of its gas stations due to just lack of supply. Um, what other things are you hearing about extreme measures the countries are having to take. And what do you think happens to these countries if this war drags on for months? Like do they have any other options? So look, the commonality of a lot of those countries you mentioned is they're developing countries. And I think what that that shows is that even in a scenario where you have a significant shortage of crude oil on the marketplace, rich countries are going to get their oil. They're gonna pay higher prices for it. In the United States, we're gonna feel it in the form of inflation. Uh we could feel it in the form of slowing economic growth as well, depending on how long it lasts. But in developing countries, you actually already have acute shortages. Uh to add to your list, I mean the Philippines has gone to four-day work weeks. Uh, you know, you have government officials being told that they should take the stairs instead of taking elevators. You have already significant uh you know rationing that's going on in other parts of the world. And you can just imagine how much worse this will get. The other thing just to mention here is the Strait of Hormous is the world's most important maritime choke point for the energy sector, but it's critical for other industries too. You know, one-third of fertilizer goes through the straight of four moves on a daily basis. So if this lasts for a long time, it could also create shortages in food supplies. You know, you could see significant humanitarian concerns as well. Yeah, I want to get to that in a second. But um you're you were a a sanctions expert in a past life. What did you make of uh the United States um like uh temporarily removing sanctions on Iran and allowing them to sell what was 140 million barrels of oil? Is that seems a little touch unprecedented now? Aaron Powell Yeah. It's a pretty remarkable development. I think just I'm always hesitant to quantify uh sanctions relief because you know what we control is what's permitted and then the market decides uh what the actual economic relief is. So the only way to compare this apples to apples to previous uh examples of sanctions relief is to look at what was permitted this time versus, for instance, what was permitted under the Iran nuclear deal in twenty fifteen. Well, in the Iran nuclear deal in twenty fifteen, the United States eased nuclear-related secondary sanctions. So we didn't actually relieve any of the primary embargo. The United States wasn't buying oil from Iran. We weren't allowing payments for Iranian oil to go through the U.S. financial system. This license that Trump issued last week does allow the United States to buy oil from Iran and it does allow Iran to collect payment using the U.S. financial system. So in really important respects, it actually goes beyond the new uh the relief that was offered in the 2015 nuclear deal. So if you just consider what kind of an incentive that provides to Iran, you know, a previous generation of Iranian leaders uh negotiated away large parts of their nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Well, this current group of Iranian leaders closed the Strait of Hormuz for three weeks and got just as much, if not more, sanctions relief. So I worry that that has really negative ramifications for whether Iran or frankly other countries are ready to come to the negotiating table with the United States to try to obtain relief from sanctions or other pressure. Yeah, it's not hard to draw the uh the lesson from that example. As you just mentioned, I mean, the conversation around the State of Hormuz is often about oil and gas shipments, and rightly so, because it's like what, 20 percent of the you know, petroleum products flow through it. But it's also a critical transit point for helium for a bunch of types of fertilizer or many other commodities. Can you talk about what the impact you think will be uh beyond just oil and gas? Like why should people care about helium? And then talk about the food crisis uh element of this. Yeah. I'm glad I think those are probably two good ones to focus on, helium and fertilizer, because they kind of affect different parts of the world. So helium is essential for the production of microchips. You know, these semiconductors that we're relying on to fuel data centers and ultimately help us win the AI race in the United States. Well, if we are short on those microchips because we don't have access to helium, that's going to have significant ramifications for the plans of big tech companies to build out these data centers. And on the stock market, Americans' wealth right now is largely tied up in the performance of big tech. And so if this lasts for a long period of time and prevents data centers from being built because of helium shortages, and also, frankly, because a lot of those data centers were scheduled to be built in the Gulf region, a region that's uh now in the middle of a massive war where you've had a number of data centers actually attacked by Iran in the last few weeks in countries like the UAE. I mean, that could have substantial ramifications for the whole AI boom. It could burst the AI bubble and have untoward uh consequences for all of our stock market portfolios in the US and the rest of the developed world. I think fertilizer and uh the ramifications for food, I mean, that has really, really substantial uh potential problems for the developing world because developing countries rely on uh fertilizer coming through the Strait of Hormuz even more, frankly, than the developed world. I think Sudan, uh, you know, which is obviously in the midst of a terrible uh humanitarian crisis right now, relies on the Strait of Hormouths for over half of its fertilizer needs. So you can just imagine that if this plays out for a long period of time, there could be significant famines that occurs around the world. Yeah, I'm horribly worried about this the food supply shortages. And it's just the of course the the poorest places on the planet will will get hurt the most uh and the fastest. I mean, uh on the sort of like duality of the point there. Um you're also seeing, you know, these cities in the Gulf, countries in the Gulf, take this massive economic hit. Like a place like Dubai, right? It's this economic miracle over the past 50 years. Uh, all of a sudden, this is a center for banking, for investment, for all these expats. Um, and now people are terrified, right? They're living under assault. There, there's drone strikes on buildings. They're scared shitless. Um, I think the UAE has knocked down like something like 2,000 projectiles from Iran. Do you have any sense of what like what the long-term economic impact could be on a place like Dubai going forward? Where I mean, maybe it's unknowable, but it does seem like uh it's been a wake-up call for a lot of people. Yeah. I think this is a real tragedy of this war. Because all of those countries you mentioned in the Gulf, including the UAE, I mean, for decades, they have been trying to get out of this situation where they're just commodities exporters. They're just selling oil and gas, and that's really their entire economic model. And look, many of these countries have had success in recent years, including uh the UAE in terms of diversifying their economy, you know, moving into higher value added industries, becoming capital providers, including for again the AI race. I worry that this war is going to have lingering consequences for the Gulf region. I think for starters, assuming that the Iranian regime remains in place, which does feel like the base case scenario right now, absent a massive escalation in the military campaign by the Trump administration, there's going to be some level of arms race that occurs in the Gulf region. There's going to be concern on an ongoing basis about the risk of drone strikes from Iran and missile strikes from Iran. And I worry that companies are going to be reluctant to invest billions of dollars to build things like data centers or to open, you know, novel industries in the Gulf. So I do worry that a lot of the progress that has been made in cities like Dubai really does hang in the balance right now. Ye Yeah. So look, the the US uh and Israel and Iran have been engaged in, you know, some level of warfare for a very long time. Some of it was covert action, but then there's more overt stuff, right? Like the Cmosos Olymani strike in twenty twenty was a pretty severe moment. It led to a ballistic missile response from the Iranians. But at no point did Iran ever close the Strait of Hormuz uh until now. And I'm wondering why you think that is, you know, sort of where maybe they got that idea, and whether you think they might now feel like, oh, you know what, this is a lever uh we can pull uh and we might pull again going forward. Um, you know. Yeah, I think one of the puzzles of this war so far, Tommy, is why is it that the United States seems surprised by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. And it's it's clear that there's probably some shoddy planning that went in. But to give folks a little bit of credit, I think the assumption had always been that for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, they would have to lay thousands of sea mines and make the strait physically impossible, make it difficult for any ship to get through lest they're uh you know potentially blow up by virtue of uh you know stumbling upon a sea mine. Well, the pr the thing is that the US didn't think Iran would take that step because of course if you had thousands of mines in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran wouldn't be able to sell its oil. You know, so I think the assumption was Iran's not going to commit economic suicide in order to mine the Strait of Hormuz. Well, guess what? They found a different way to do it. Just by using these cheap drones and missiles and attacking about a dozen or so ships, they really haven't actually attacked that many vessels. Right. They've been able to change the risk calculus of the entire global shipping industry. They've effectively established themselves as this psychological gatekeeper over the Strait of Hormuz. And it's interesting because in some ways they learned the lesson from America's own sanctions. If you think about how the United States bent the financial system to its will over the last two decades, it wasn't through sanctioning every single bank doing business with Iran. It was only sanctioning a handful of them. I mean, I remember when I was working on this issue in the Obama administration, and we were trying to persuade China to reduce their purchases of Iranian oil. We only sanctioned one small Chinese bank, Bank of Kunlan, in 2012, and that was enough to get all the other banks in China to fall in line to shape the risk calculus of the financial sector. Iran has now pulled off something similar with the global energy industry, with the global shipping industry. And I think that so long as this regime stays in place, that threat is going to be there. And that's why right now they're going so far as to demand payment, demand tolls basically, for ships going through the Strait of Hormuz. It's really remarkable. Um and so look at the final question for you. I mean, Iran is debatably winning a war against the United States and Israel simply by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Um China won a trade war with the United States simply by blocking the export of rare earth minerals that we in the US need for electronics of all kinds from cell phones to drones. Um is this the future of warfare? And and if so, like are there other like Achilles heels you're seeing out there for the US that you think we should be talking about? Short answer is yes. I mean, this is why I saw fit to write a book called Choke Points about Economic Warfare. Um, living in a hyper-globalized economy with all of these sort of single points of failure, you are really handing over a whole lot of economic leverage to all different kinds of countries around the world. We saw last year what China can do when it throttles the global supply of rare earth minerals. It got the Trump administration to completely reverse its China policy, right? I mean, this pivot on China that was ushered in during the first Trump term to be more hawkish, to cut off their supplies of semiconductors, to impose tariffs, all of that right now is in the process of being walked back because China weaponized a choke point against the United States. Well, now Iran has pulled off something similar. By weaponizing their control of the world's most important maritime choke point, the Strait of Hormuz. They've completely changed the Trump administration's war aims. You know, they've vacillated between regime change, denuclearization, military degradation. Well, now they have one overarching aim. That's reopening the strait, which is fighting on Iran's terms. There are many other choke points in the global economy. I think one that worries me especially now, if you look at kind of the longer term consequences of this war, to me, one of the easiest bets right now is to think that many, many countries around the world are going to triple down on efforts to electrify their economies, to go solar, to adopt uh electric vehicles, battery technologies. Well, guess what? China dominates all of those industries. Yeah. Every single one. So even if we're okay at home, living on fossil fuels to the end of time, if all of our allies in Europe and Asia completely embrace electric technologies and China dominates 90% of most of those industries. That hands China a heck of a whole lot of choke points that it will be able to use to leverage against American allies. That's not to say they shouldn't electrify. It's to say that here in the United States, we really need to wake up and start competing with China in these industries of the fut Trevor Burrus, Yeah. Never mind if they take Taiwan and TSMC and all of a sudden there's no chips. There you go. That's another choke point for you. Trevor Burrus Too many choke points. Uh the book is choke points: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare. Uh Edward Fishman, thank you so much for doing the show. Really important stuff. Uh, and I appreciate it. Yeah, my pleasure. Good to see ya