German Politics and Economic Challenges

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Shop Wayfare's Fth of July clelearance now through july six at wayfare dot com d Pay fair, every style, every home. This is pololitical Crency with Ed Ballles and George Osborne So it's a Thursday morning and of course George Jsborne has just landed at Heathrow. Another I mean it's almost a weekly transatlantic flight as far as I can see. just landed from America. Yes, I've just come back from Washington, a very sunny Washington. It was very rainy when I was there about ten days ago. and I was meeting various congressional People, members of Congress, senators had a blended lunch in the Senate dining room, which is was fun U But they're all talking about An English guy Well they werere at least still asking me about Ningerky Steve Hilton Because while I was there results or the early results from the California primary came through, the primary to choose the Two people who are going to be on the ballot paper in California this autumn be the goveror of California, and it looks like Steve has come out top And everyone was asking me like, tellell me about this guy U so he's he's, you know, obviously political aicionatities in America had already sort of spotted. he was running. But this was the moment he broke through into the sort of broader Washington, you know, beltway consciousness although as Katie Balls of the Times was reporting from I think she was at the CPAC conference. Everybody there is convinced that reap it low is about to be the next prime Minister because if you watch X and that's where you get your politics from The Elon Musk algorithm makes Rore, you know the dominant figure of British politics these days. But to be fair to Steve Hilton, a it said. Exactly is top. He is top. Although the question is, I mean look Donald Trump has popped up this morning, having endorsed Steve Hilton to say that it takes so long to count all these postal ballots because this is another election which has been fixed by the Democrats it's all a cordon But u great achievement for Steve Hilton to come top in the primary Do doesn't mean he's going to win No, not at all. and it's a Democrat state or seen as a Democrat state, and he's the Republican candidate But it's a deemocrat state where a lot of people were expecting that the two candidates this autumn would be Democrats because in this primary They just picked the two most popular candidates And you know, he he started with nothing. I mean, I went to see him a year ago. We've talked about it quite a bit on this show There's literally a picture of me and him. You can see it in the newsletter if you're one of our kitchen cabinet members that you get There's a phot took of me and him standing by his sort of yellow and blue painted pickup truck which is the Steve Hilton campaign. And that was the Steve Hilton campaign. There was no money There was no staff And one of the people he appears to have beaten is a hedge fund billionaire who spent two hundred million dollars on the campaign and didn't get through to the final two. So I think whatever happens for Steve This autumn in the general election or the main election for the governorship You know, he made he's pulled off an amazing feat, a truly astonic, whatever you think of his sort of political views and All of that, just in terms of a political achievement to be a British guy who goes to California, becomes an American citizen. then just a few years later be one of the two candidates to be governor It's amazing. and it proves a rule I've always thought about politics If you have enough, hunger and appetite and people can see that you really want it That makes a big difference Look, it is a great achievement and it's because he is the charismatic candidate and it looks like guy who's going to come second. possibly first in this primary the guy he'll be running off against in the autumn is the guy Bakera, we talked about him on the podcast a couple of weeks ago, you know, the opposite of a charismatic figure You know, a former attorney genereral in California, a former member of Biden's cabinet. If it is simply a charismatic leadership fight, Steve Hilton's got a real chance even though this is, as you said, Democrat California, but the thing I think may count against him in the end is ironically the Trump nomination Steve has got the nomination from Donald Trump But this is going to be an autumn. JD endorsed him yesterday on poolling day. Well, I'm sure that will I think that may add to my point which is that it's going to be an autumn midterm elections fight across America and a referendum on Donald Trump and JD Vance. There's going to be a big high profile mayoral election in Los Angeles between the incumbent Democrat and a MAGA figure Spencer Pratt And, you know, If it all becomes about Do you want Magot Do you want Trump and that kind of as American politics across the whole of the United States. in the end, look what Steve Hilton needs now is to make it a sort of non party, non political just about Chrisma. that's the election you can win. But if it becomes a wider political choice about Trump and MGo and do you want the Trump endorsed candidate? the JD Venk endorsed candidate I think that's a much harder election for Hilton to win even against a rather unexciting Democrat. Not he's definitely the underdog He was like a non runner a year ago I mean, P people thought there was no chance he could get through the fine food. And what you say about Chisma is interesting in the kind of classic image of an American politician. You know, they're like six foot too tall. They've got a big kind of mop of groomed hair You know, they obviously speak with an American accent and they've usually got millions of dollars in the bank. And here's But much as I love Steve, he's like not the tallest guy in the world He doesn't have very much air at least on the top of his head. he's got a n he's got a big kind of beard now And the charisma you talk about, which I think is real, is all from his messaging and the way he's presented himself on social media. and this message which is It should be a referendum on Californian Democrat rule and what they've done to California because they've been in charge for decades notot on Trump. but obviously, you're quite right, that's his big challenge which he knows, but you know, politics is you got to be in it to win it. and Anything could happen now is I think you said last time I discussed this, who knows when you're in the final two Maybe the other candidate blows up. So anyway, this is all a diversion from our own problems here in the UK, which I was also being asked a lot about in America. in Washington. And in particular, I was being asked about the horrific murder of Henry Novak. So it has been noticed even on the other side of the Atlantic. And we're obviously going to talk about that on the show day We're going to talk about the lessons for the police but also the political fallout from this horrific crime and the terrible death of that young man of course that political rle The tragic death of Henry Novak is framing by election and the by election debate for the next two weeks. There was a question time this evening in which five of the candidates are appearing, this will be a big item in that question time debate. and you know there is no doubt um that u This has become a political football in that makerfield by election. But of course, I think also on Question T tonight, the Mandelsen files will also come up. So we will ask, how's it going to make a field How's Andy Burnham handling challenge and What do the Madison files tell us about the state of governing party in Westminster And on the subject of beleaguered leaders whose parties might be about to turn on them Charismatic outsiders from the regions who might come and seize their position We're going to look at Germany not nd down the street, but in fact the Chancelly in Berlin B Friedrich Mertz who was elected about a year ago, the German Chancellor is really struggling low in the polls and the Effectively the' kind of governor mayor, but the prrime Minister of North Rine, Westphalia, one of the German provinces is potential challenger from his own Christian Democrat partarty and we're going to quick look at German politics, which bears some remarkable similarities with British politics at the moment And we all that to come. But we're going to start with what is now a debate about whether there is two tier policing in our country, two tier policing which is discriminating against the white majority. and that is a debate which is taken off the last thirty, six, forty eight hours since the body cam footage released overnight Monday into Tuesday of the the utterly Terrible tragic and horrifying death of the eighteen year old Southampton University student, Henry Novak. And he was murdered. by a Sikh individual of Virim Digwa with an eight inch knife But when the police first arrived at the scene and Henry Novak was on the ground in Distress proud of Digwa and his family and friends all said that Novak had done the racial attack that he was the culprit and up Initially while he was on the floor, the police semmed handcuffed him before they realized what was going on Now the reason why this all happened in British politics this week. is because Under our reporting rules, until the sentence the conviction, the sentencing have happened, there is a reporting restriction And and I think the reason why this is more being discussed in America is because of course, in America, people don't have to comply by these rules. So Elon Musk on X has been winding up a white boy being killed by seek men for weeks on A actually Robert Genereick also raised this in own Parliament, using parliamentary privilege a few weeks ago. But when the sentencing happened on Monday and Diggwell was given a life sentence with a twenty one year minimum Iediately Nigel Farraage We were saying last week he'd been absent from the Makerfield by election. He announced an emergency statement, which he delivered at eight AM. from a field somewhere in Britain didn't take any questions in which he talked about Told Fury he feellds and thinks that very many other people will as well. He said it shouldn't just be Black Lives matters, it was now about white lives matter. He again made the accusation of about two tier policing. Kemmy Badnock responded fifty minutes later on Good morning Britain in a widely praised interview that she did. It's ended up framing a statement on Tuesday from Shab Al Mammou Prim Minister'sQions yesterday. Of course, this whole about whether this is two tier policing, whether this was discrimination against a white eighteen year old police is all the opposite of what Henry Novak's family wanted and what they feared was going to happen. Let's just start because I think we should Hedries I mean Grief of the parents seeing the footage in court and now public of their son dying on the ground, but being listened to while he appealed helpel and support is so powerful and so moving. but This is what Mark Novak said the sentencing on the steps of the court We do not want his death to be used to create further division, hatred or tension. We want his story to make our streets safer for everyone That is why we are calling on the government to treat Nife crime as the national emergency that it is. I mean, let's start with the policing. because You know, that very brave family and it's like absolutely heartrending to watch the father speak with his daughter next to him and so on That family does say police got it terribly wrong So they absolutely don't want division on the streets and they're very clear about that. But they do see say the police call it terribly wrong and they consented to the release of the bodycam video footage. I think without that footage this story would be quite a lot less high octane in the way it is at the moment in British politics because you can't watch the footage and not be just appalled by the way the poor boy is being treated And I know there's an independent police inquiry and everyone says, wait for that There are some very basic police mistakes that are obvious and can be called out. You know, they don't check whether the boy's been stabbed ne of the officers says, you haven't been stabbed met Mate, and we now know you've been stabbed several times. So it's sort of just basic like you turn up the scene of crime, someone says they've been stabbed and the police don't check The question then is wereere they kind of influenced by the fact He was white and the other person at the scene was a Sikh non one. and And that's where the kind of allegations of two tip policing come in, isn't it? that essentially becausecause the police are so kind of handstung, this is the argument you get by kind of anti racism ideology and they They've been explicitly told in their own guidance not to treat all people equally that they kind of turn up at the scene of the crime and they kind of believe the murderer who says he's been the victim of a racist attack and they don't believe the guy dying on the ground ould you mean let's start with the policing lessons here. I mean, would you accept not just that obviously there are terrible policing errors in this particular case, which the Chief Cstable of the local police force has accepted You know, something has gone wrong to paraphrase Hemy Badenoock and others, but also some leading labour politicians have said Um that some something's gone wrong with the way police handle the whole issue of race Look, there is no doubt that something went badly wrong in this case And the police officers got it wrong. And that is what the investigation will look at But the question is Were they in their minds being influenced by a new Um ideology. Or, you know, was it about policing policy? And and I think that it's really hard to stand up up in this case. I mean, it is shocking seeing the body cam image. But if you go to what the judge said in his summing up at the the at the time of sentencing He says the attending police officers honestly believe There were reasonable grounds for suspecting Henry had committed an offence They were given a convincing but wholly false narrative of the the incident I' going to basasically Digwa colled to them as did the people around them and it was dark and late and that the The wounds were not visible They say he says the genuine shock the particular police officer when he realized what had happened shows he was doing his best in a very difficult situation. I think that the IRPC will be critical of the police officers The questestion is Were they acting in a way which was discriminatory? to Henry because of training they had received. I don't see the body camera image and see prima facie evidence that in this case. But the reason why this has been supercharged is also because of the twenty twenty five guidance, which has been widely quoted u byy an in this case. and it's actually just worth reading it and then trying to discuss it. because the twenty twenty five guidance says Our commitment to racial equality means producing e quality of policing outcomes for people from different ethn groups, blah, blah. It does not mean treating everyone the same or being cololor bllind And it's been interpreted that what that guidance is telling police officers is not to treat people Pully that you should be discriminatory. Now, I looked into this. I went back to the Race action planan twenty twenty two, which by the way produced when Chris Phil was the policing minister in the months afterwards he was and Kemmy Bedoock was the equalities minister. That document is all about trying to tackle the problem of perceived racism in policing most of my adult life Pople have talked about two tier policing, but the two tier policing wasn't discrimination against white people, it was discrimination against black and ethnic minority people. The McPerson report, the more recent Louise Casey report. and the question is What do you do about that? And I think what the guidance is bad is clumsy What it's trying to say is it's not enough simply to treat people equally, which is the police's oath also have to understand that for some communities the history of discrimination means you have to do more, you have to think harder about that. I think that is right. The idea those police officers went in, the Tes this morning has them meb anonymous members of the force in Hampshire saying that they were sort of being swayathed in how they responded. And if that is true, that is a really bad thing, it's a terrible thing. but actually what police forces have been trying to do is overcome perception of racist bias against black and ethnic minority individuals and they've been doing their best in this case of the guidance, it's clumsy. But in the individual case of Henry Novak, the judge does not stand up claim that they were acting because of training or ideology, It was a difficult situation and they were lied to. OK, but I mean police officers get lied to all the time, presumably when they stop people or intervene in situations.. And I think this kind I'm going to kind of press you a bit here. I mean this This language clumsy The word clumsy is actually a word that several government ministers have also used So they've all sort of lightened on this guidance and said it's clumsy. But I think you have to look at the guidance itself and say it's not just clumsy, it's wrong It's wrong. you' You are right to say there's been a long history of accusations of police racism and particular communities, but particularly the Black community feel that the police has been racist towards them And of course, we had The Stephen Lawrence murder, the Fherson Rort, all of that that long history But we've end up in a situation Wh which is why the race action planlan in twenty twenty two repeatedly says police must not be racist. They have to be anti racist. That's what they are told But there's a difference between being anti racist and then saying Coming up then with the conclusion that the way to be anti racist is not to treat everyone equally and not to be blind. And that's where I think the ideology has gone completely warped And and it's not just the police, you know, if you look, it's all sorts of public bodies have now adopted this Um kind of definition. It means people should be treated differently. Treating everyone the same is not enough was not right And that guidance applies to now the National Health Service to the crriminal vetting orrganization to Homes England, to compompanyiess House. It's written into all of these public bodies. that they shouldn't treat people equally in order to deliver a fair outcome And I just think that is a massive departure from basic common sense And we've allowed it to happen. I completely agree with you. It happened in the latter years that of those conservative governments. So it's quite hard for them to say nohing do with us, mate You know, it is It's gone wrong. It's gone badly wrong. And I thought it was interesting Jack Straw, who was homeome Secretary at the time them at first a report has come out and said All that was necessary to deal with racism and police, but there's been an overreaction, as there often is or an over correction, as there often is in these sorts of situations And now we need to correct back. I think the risk in for this issue is if you don't acknowledge there's a problem at all. or you think it's just around the clumsy wording of one piece of guidance That is not most people's lived experience. People who work in companies and get kind of anti racist training. P people who work in the public sector who are exposed to well, all this public this guidance, a lot of them know when they hear it This isn't quite right, but I better keep quiet. Becauseuse you know, I don't lose my job or anything like that And it's very dangerous when the kind of mainstream political classes detached from the lived experience of millions of people in work in the public sector, in the private sector who go like This has all gone a bit Figures though, George, I agree with you And I think this guidance is wrong I don't think, by the way, it intends to say you should treat people discriminatedly. I mean, every police officer makes the oath not to you to do that, but it's trying to say you have to understand history and why some communities are more skeptical or more worried or more afraid of the police. And by that, they don't mean the white community. But it is wrong. And if that culture has happened that I think that is really dangerous. but Let's just the NHS England guidance. Equitable treatment does not necessarily mean always treating everyone the same. Well, of course that's the. The trouble is you've departed, once youve sort of depart from these big public authorities. George we don't treat you for. If I go in and I've got an appendicitis I don't get treated the same as somebody who's feeling a bit fluy If I'm an asylum seeker and I get given bus travel and that is different from other people who pay for bus travel, that's because I'm an asylum seeker, not because I have a particular ethnicity. And if I'm from a community which has a deep distrust of the police because of years of mistreatment, I think police officers have to be aware of that If that means that they acted a way which is discriminatory, then that's a bad thing. And what the language does is suggests jump into the kind of things that have been said in the last couple of days, right? First of all This is a George Floyd moment Look, George Floyd was killed in plain sight in America by police officers. People say Kevby Badlock says this, this is our Stephen Lawrence moment. Stehen Lawrence was killed by white youths Pice then inspired in covering that up to and months and years. in this case two minutes where they realize what's going on ase shift their focus. They have made a mistake pererpetrator, who was not a police officer, but de sk guy with a knife he should never have been allowed to carry, gets convicted for a life sentence. I mean, it's just not comparable. Ste Lawrence, which was about a culture of racism. Now people are trying to say there's a culture of racism here. We now have two tier policing in our country. The two tier policing means anti white discrimination. When Souella Bravman was removed from office as homeome seecretary in twenty twenty two by Rishi Sunak, that iss because she made the allegation of two tier policing and that was so beyond that she lost her job? Are we really saying four years old It's now become normalised for the Tes and the spectator and the leaders of the opposition and the shhadow homeome Secretary just to take it as a given. because I think Oh dangerous to the morale of policing is not true in the vast majority of cases. If you want police officers to run into dangerous situations, you can't we end up with riots Tuesday nights with people throwing bricks and bottles and wheelie bins at police stations. What kind of country are we becoming Okay, but just as George Floyd's murder parked around the world I you know, the Black Lives Matter movement and You know, Kissed Amor took the knee as did the England football team and all that kind of thing. Whether that was wise or not, it was a real response of black people to what they saw with their own eyes. Yeah. But it was also, as I've said before in this podcast, In my view, a disaster, The Black Lives Matter movement because it triggered a white Lives matter Hispanic lives matter, which is why Hispanic voters deserted the Democrat Party and American and supported Trump. You know once you start segmenting people into these different groups, once you're playing into this the kind of splintering of society I think you are, you're actually empowering racism. I understand that. Al although telling Black Americans they should ignore the last one hundred and fifty years of American history is quite a hard thing for us white people to tell. Yes, but equally, you know, sometimes it take what you know, why is it that suddenly the homeome seecretary of the United Kingdom Prim of the United Kingdom come out and say, oh yeah, well maybe there this racism guidance. is is all wrong or clumsy and we're going to withdraw it Why does it take a court case? Because that's how like society operates and politics operates. need It's often specific cases that spark a reexamination of how things been handled or lead to changes in the law Let' we should come we're talking we're drifting into correctly the kind of politics of all of this. U and Let's just I think there the way I would think about it is there are kind of clear risks. for the way Nigel Farraage is handling it clelear risks from the way Kiest Ama and the Labour Party are potentially handling it And I think there is a potential risk for Kemmy Badenock in the way she has been handling it, although generally, you know, including in particular, the interviews she did with you on GMB She is g of got some laaudits and she's been the subject of her particularly unpleasant and misleading to put it mildly reform attackad. Should we take them shouldhould we just take them in order? Nigel Farge I mean, if you were't let me put let me be totally devil's advocate. I don't agree with this at all, but just to get you You know, he if you were him or you were advising him, youd say Nigel. This is your issue. This is what people are thinking. your supporter us think it. Go and say it. Yeah, sure, the mainstream politicians are all going to attack you sound all pom person. throw back at you the words of the father of the poor boy who was murdered and so on, but who cares? Your message is going to get across. This is you've always been the person. who succeeds when you say what is the unsayable but everyone is thinking. That will be, you know what he'll be thinking, right? Absolutely. And he will think this week has gone really well for him On our podcast last week, we said that Nigeer Farge was finding it difficult going to make a field. He doesn't want to do press conferences, he doesn't want to answer questions about his donations, but he's under pressure under pressure from restore to his rightind And this was an opportunity and he did it through a video without any questions in which he basically says White lives matter and puts himself at the center of this by election debate. mean it tells you, as we said last week that he is far more worried about the threat from his right flank from Elon Musk and Rapt Low and u that he is reaching into the centre ground and he went out of his way to say things which were so inflammatory that nobody could do him and which proves a big opportunity for Kemy Baitnock, but it also I mean, the contradiction in what he's saying is so shocking. At the time of the Sarah Everard murder, which was just five years ago, Nigel Farage was tweeting We must not allow the tragic murder of a young woman to lead to attacks on men and attacks on the police. When there were demonstrations against the police from the hard left He says The Marxists among us are playing the anti police card Sarah Everard's murder And then five years on But it is a A white boy ' he's doing the opposite. and it's basically playing to let us find a way to tell white men that you are the victims, you are disadvantaged, you've been unfairly treated and it's by the state and the police and therefore he's playing the anti police card. Now, I understand why in his short term politics he needs this and why He thinks it might help him in makeake afield. But it is the opposite of what he said five years ago and it is the opposite of leadership. It prevents mention to the center ground. I think it makes it very hard a prime minister who says that the police are racist and discriminatory against whites U it's a fundamental thing in u I think in political and government leadership that you have to support police in the difficult jobs they do, and worry about their morale And gi them the confidence go difficult situations So Ed, Th these are all problems he'll face if he's Prime Minister We're talking about him trying to become Pime Minister, and isn't this just going to help? I mean I think could think there is a huge divisive I think in the end I'm agreeing with you that I think he probably thinks he's had a good week and this works for him in Makerfield, but it takes him in the opposite direction from what we said he should be doing If he's actually trying to win from the center and the right, I think if you're Richard Tice you look at this and thinking this is the opposite. I mean competating to outdo Rupert Low in language which sounds racist, really No, no, I think the risk is it kind of pushes him back into the territory he was in fifteen years ago where he was on the kind of unacceptable, right That's all I'm saying. Yeah he's doing so because he is under massive pressure And he feels that's what he has to do right now, even if it's the opposite of the right electoral strategy. But but it's possible that the sort of political environment you know, there are parallels with Trump, you know, who was sort of unacceptable except it turned out a load of mainstream Americans very different, you know, And then suddenly he becomes acceptable. What about, let's do the risks to The StAa government is already deead man walking, isn't it? But point of phrase. but what What about u the for labour more generally. mean regardless of stara, I mean For you know, labor MPs who represent these constituencies What do you think the risk is for them? Well I think that they were just slow on this Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday morning, it was going to be a statement from Sarah Jones, the policing minister. Then it became the homeome Secretary Swan mou by the afternoon. She did a good statement. But on that day I don't think But that Kirst Stmer in particular the right balance between on the one hand being horrified by what happened and also wanting to c of learn lessons from the case But at the same time defending the police. I think that is your job as a Prime Minister. That's what you've got to do And it sounded on Tuesday like. he was leaning into the two tier narrative. I think that's just incredibly dangerous for a Labour or conservative prime Mister. He pulled it back by by Wednesday lunchime, maybe we should listen to Nigel Farge and Kir Starmer in Promis' questions. It is now clear to growing millions in this country we're living under two tier policing. The instructions that are given to police officers from police bosses are clear and written down in ink. It says you must treat different ethnic groups in different ways I'm really shocked that he pretends to have respect for Henry's family. and then acts in this way.rie They are a grieving family. So you know I think Stalmer was strong there in his repost U But the risk, I think the risk for labor is it's a bit like with the grooming gangs, you know, which is deployed in the Makerfield by election against Andy Burnham and was deployed in general election against Labour MPs by reform You know, that There's the real issue and it's not two tier policing and it's not as being portrayed by Nigel Farage, but it is as you that repeating what we've just been talking about you know, many people's lived experiences that Some of this racism guidance has is wrong and has gone too far. What about Kemy Bayennock? You see, the reason I bring her in? is I think she had a very strong week. because she differentiated herself from Farage Um and you know, played a very made a very powerful point on your show, which is it's not the black liivves matter, it's not the white liivves matter. Everyone's lives matter, she says And you know, of course it comes with extra force that she is a bllack woman who says this I think they kind of curious risk if Well, there's a policy risk which we might come ono. because I think, you know, you have You've been saying to me that Hold on Aren't they actually signing up to this claim of two tier policing, particularly Shadow homeome Secreary Chris Phill But I think there's another is a curious risk for her, which you it's one of those things that might be hard to spot. But you know, I don't think you know, Kamy Badenock is at her best when she's on these sorts of issues. It's actually what propelled her into the leadership of the Tory partarty When she's on these cultural issues, when she's sort of Standing up to use the kind of loose term woke ideology when she's saying, stop defining people as blacks, stop defining people as women You know, we're all the same you know, she's very, very strong But it's a bit of a sid showow for the Conservative partarty And the culturure wars aren't wars, they're going to win And u partarticularly would reform knocking around And they they need to kind of constantly come back to the economy And so obviously this was not the week to talk about the economy. she was absolutely on the right topic But I think you know she might sort of drink the kool aid a bit and go back to the Kemy Baynock who to find herself around this set of issues, these sort of cultural issues and miss the bigger point, which is she's got to drag the Conservative partarty onto the kind of center ground on the economy And that is a week by week job I agree with that, although I don't think that she's lost from this week. As I said to you earlier, I think she has to be very careful. that she doesn't allow people around her to lean too far into the reform restore agenda and I don' think the two tier policing language is good language for a potential party of government and as I said, it lost Swella Braver on her job U but B attacked by Robert Genrick and Nigel Farage in an entirely erroneous and unfair way to say that she was championing Black Lives matter. when in fact, as you said earlier, her quote on the very emotional but thoughtful interview with us was that it should not be black lives or white lives, it should be everybody's lives matter. I thought she got the tone of that right and it would have done her Good but I agree with you that That's her strong place. She's got to go into the econom The ad, the reform ad This is entirely erroneous. which has a picture of Kemmy Baynoxs and says she says L lives do matter. White lives don't matter T quotes taken out of context, particularly the second one You know, I mean, it's basically a racist that you would not put that ad up If it was a white male leader of the Tory Party or even a white female I don't think I think it it's playing it's actually playing the race guuard, isn't it? I don't know whether you saw on the Robert Peston show Robert Genrick attempting to defend that ad when Peston played to generate what Kabby Bednock actually said on Good morning Britain. I mean it's clearly It's a lie and is shocking and but I think it shows you How worried Nigel Frage and Reform are, but I think all of that works to Kenny Baynoch's advantage. Anyway, W streeting was very good and coming out and sort of siding with Kimmy Baynock in that. And talking of Wes, he is, of course one of the contenders in this leadership contest that is underway, but isn't And we're going to be turning next to the Makeerfield Bialection and the Mandlesom files which have been this week's installment in the Labour leadership crisis Still waiting in line Again That's time you will never get back. Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot com. Join them to save up to ninety percent of carrier rates from your computer or phone right now Print posted for certified mail, registered mail, and packages in seconds. thenen schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps. com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift. Taxes and feas up. You want to get your backyard summer ready, but you don't want to break the bank? Wayfair gets it. planning on dining alfresco or relaxing poolside Wayfair has everything you need to prep your space. Shop now and save up to seventy percent off during Wayfair's Fourth of July clearance. sccore huge deals on outdoor furniture, area rugs, and more. We're talking thousands of products for every style and budget. Plus, surprise Flash Deals July sixth. Don't wait. Shop Wayfare's Fourth of July clearance now through july sixth at wayfare dot com d Pay fair, every style, every home. So we are recording this on Thursday as the candidates prepare for their question time outing on the BBC at the moment the feeling in the labour campaign is that it's going Well, Andy Burnham vote is holding up and that the rs between reform and restore working to their advantage. And of course the reform candidate, Robert Kennyon, to be fair to, he was a plumber til two weeks ago and now he's answering questions about Crimea and immigration and remain and so you know, this is a baptism of fire, but you know, it's been a bit wobbly for him. But there's still a long way to go. and I think the big question for Andy Burnham is him navigating the tension between being a by election candidate and also trying to run to be Primeinister of the country at the same time, and that is causing I think some unease Yeah, and he's been pretty cautious on this whole policing issue this week, although maybe on question time he gets push further on it And I thought there are two things I'd like you to hear. First Listen to this interview on a very good podcast, electoral Dysfunction. with Beth Rigby. This is Andy Burnham really squirming when I think Beth asks prettyraightforward question, which is You presumeably want to be Prime Mis Listen to this I'm making a case for change in this by election, a change to labour, a change to politics, a change to the way the country is run.. And I will take that fight as far as I can take it, but I'm not making assumptions here about jobs that I might. I know, but it's a sort of weird conversation because This is a b election, but it's a national conversation about labour and how labour might change. And you're clearly running because you want to go back and try and be prrime Minister. now so we're having this weird conversation where that's' lo in and then you won't say it. It's not weird because I'm setting out clearly the change and this is quite a change for labour. So you know, he's basically dodging the question, Do you want to be Prime Minister? even though in all his campaign literature and his sort of video blogs and so on He says This isn't just a local election. This is about changing labour nationally And he says we're going to make make a field the most powerful constituency in the country, which is clue for the local MP is going to be the Pime Minister And I thought there was I thought it was odd because I thought he'd actually decided to be more straightforward on the question, which is, yeah, I'm coming into not just be the MB here but to change the lab body by being its leader. and the risk for him is that His kind of ordinary bloke routine. I'm the honest guy. Look, I'm just a normal person You know, which has been pretty powerful and quite charismatic kind starts to unravel if he starts to sound like a, you know a sort of politician who dodges the question, do you want to be Prime Minister? which is of course what politicians do And I did when I was asked and you probably did when you were asked, but You know, it he he he says, I'm a different style of politician And I think that was looking a bit threadbare this week. Here's hereere's a comedian This is actually from a couple of weeks ago so This comedian Russell Caine was ono this with his parody A I'm Andy Burnham and what I'm doing right now, I'm just making a cup of tea I do loads of really normal things throughout the day and having a cup of tea just one of them. You ainly burning here. I'm just about to make some toast with white bread of course I wouldn't even know how to spell sourdough and wouldn't be interested in it because it's not normal enough I like a nice slice of white, thank you toasted on a normal toaster. Hey, Andy Berurnnamere And I've just put my sock on. I've got shoes and socks and sometimes I put a sock on, but that's what life's about in it just being normal. I'm just going in here because I'm gonna have a shit I'm just like you really. Sometimes I go in the toilet and have a shit. Hi, I'm Andy Burnham and I have an insatiable urge for power. I mean I like gravy It h I'm going to use Anyway, I laughed when I saw that first time. but the What do you think? I mean look you it's a pretty slick campaign But pololicing issue will feature and now in this by election And and of course Quite rightly, people are starting to ask this guy Hold on, you want to be the Prime M minister. You know what would you do if you're a Prime Minister? We discussed a couple of weeks ago that It's one thing to think that at the beginning of the by election campaign, it will be a coronation if Andy Burnhams won It's another thing to think there'll definitely be a corination at the end of the campaign and all of these these bumps along the road, I think make it more likely with streeting or somebody else will get the eighty one signatures because because it does raise questions. I think it's probably good for Andy Burham if there is a contest at the end of this rather than because I'm not sure they're going to be ready. There is one challenge about authenticity. If you go out there to say I'm the straight talking guy and then you don't answer Bet's questions in a straight talking way, then that becomes a bit messy. They also need some campaign discipline about messaging. I mean, most of the week has been about does Andy Burnham want to have an early election If he wins the by election, then becomes Prime Minister, kind of like totally destabilising for labour MPs. They're allowing loads of speculation in the papers with his campaign people saying who is going to be his Chancellor Is it going to be Saban of Mamood? Is it going to be Ed Milliband also very destabilizing. They kind of kind of get a bit of a grip on this and fight the by election campaign first but I think the biggest challenge they've got I mean, by the way, should pick Shabana or Ed would be We come We should definitely discuss this on a future podcast. But I think the big challenge is about messaging and um And you, I have said over the last two or three years about Kir Stahmer, that when he duds the sort of outsider anti Westminster positioning. This is dangerous. It's easy to do it if you're the populist outsider and you are position but it's much harder to then sustain that. when you take on the big job. It's easy to be the sort of populous outsider when you're responding to Tony Blair's essay, which Andy Burdam did a week ago 'm As you said though, when it comes to this debate about policing, and two tier policing M Andy Burnham so far I said nothing He's obviously going have to say something when he gets to question time or may be before this afternoon, because playing the populist outsider card would be the wrong thing for him to do. politically in order to win the Labour leadership, even if it is the right thing to do for parts of the makeak afield electorate. and so as a consequence, he sort of suightdly runs out of road and says nothing on that issue. Then you had his response to the Mandelson files. This caused lots of eye rolling in the lobby Be I would say when the Mandleeston files came out, they were slightly are less exciting than people thought. Andy produces a statement on Twitter in which he says the revelations will further damage confidence in the political system Change can't come soon enough. neede fundamental Cultural change, peopleople have lost faith in the system private vested interests above the wider public interest need a new political culture rooted in accountability. I mean it's all very well. If you slam Everybody in the cabinet everybody in the goovernment and all the four hundred Labour members of Parliament for all being part of this failed political culture, you the populous outsider are going to storm to fundamentally change because they're all about their own private self interest and you're the only one who supports the public interest And then you also want to become the leader of the Prime Mister and galvanize everybody around a common mission and by the way, have to actually make decisions and make difficult decisions and handle surprise events and and sensitive matters And you can't do that. in a sort of farraage style outsider way. Well, you know, Pe are starting to think, come on Andy, you know, Gowal We actually want you to start talking like you are if you're running to be Prime Minister Sound like one Well, you have frequently made this point about what a mistake it is to sort of be anti politics, particularly if you're very obviously a politician And you know, Rishy Sunak tried it, the head boy from Winchester Goldmanach, ex Stanford running against the system and the elite kissed Sir kissed Arma director of Public prorosecutions. You know, also running against the elites and the people who've been running the country And and now Andy Burnham, who's a lifelong, you know, career politician, nothing against them But you know, he was a special advisor. He was a junior MP cabinet minister now in he's been Mor Mag. I mean It doesn't work, It doesn't work for the outsiders. But it's truely it's interesting. only found out about this political culture after he left it, having been an advisor, minister and cabinet minister in it for thirteen years What about the just on the Mandlesen files? you go right it was A bit of a damn Squibby that was like whatever a million is a million pounds worth a thousand documents or anyway I thought there was thing it is one of those things where You know, you get into trouble for telling the truth And u You know, if you actually read the Mandelsen exchanges with various members of the cabinet, it's you know withith Pat McVaddder and it's like, yeah, the trouble with you know, the government and the Labour Parliamentary party is You know, all they ever talk about is how to raise taxes, not how to,, you know make the country grow. and with them various other people, he's, you know saying There's no economic plan. E your big pal, Darren Jones is Cceding to him there's no economic plan And, you know, then he says, you know, the downowning Street operation is a bit of a mess mean this is all coming out of the but of go all of this is true. And then you know, the sort of shock horror is It's all true. That's right It was less a smoking gun than a roosetta stone. You have to sort of read the hieroglyphics and work out what is really going on. There's actually a lot in there. although interestingly, I think What the media moved quite quickly to is to what isn't in there. So you now have Darren Jones and Kir Starmer WhatsApp messages in the spectator today from Tim Shipman, which weren't included in the Monday bundle. And as you say, have D Where did they come from then? Well, I mean, they were messages between Kir Starmer and Peter Mandelerson and Darren Jones and Peter Mandelerson. And if Darren Jones and Kir Starmer wanted to release them, they would have put them into the bundle on Monday Well they actually said they didn't have them. They said they their disappearing messages feature on WhatsApp meant they couldn't. Well, then, you know, unless they unless there was a long copy list who knows? peopleeople will speculate that this is Peter Mandelson say saying if you go out and pretend you don't know me and you are never a friend of mine and we never work together in a way which is actually disingenuous and untrue, then you know don't forget, I mean you know that is probably a very unfair allegation to to make I' have no idea whether Peter's releasing these messages, but somebody's got them. And so in of time we had another You know, everyone likes a comeback But don't you it's the return of the prince, the return of the Prince of Darkness. He he's been so quiet in this story you know, understandably. But maybe he now he's resurfacing The real issue here though, is it lays There the state of the government and how it's been for the last two years. If you were a loyalist thinking You know, maybe it's not as bad And maybe it can be turned round And maybe it's not really number ten's fault And then you see these messages, you realize Goodness me It really is that bad and it really was number ten's fault and all the things which we feared and we were told And all these cabinet mininisters were telling us No, that's not true turn out they are all true. And so I think I think to be honest, it really sucks the life out of possibility that this could be turned round strategically. And so you know, it felt to me like pretty pretty pretty final. Patrick Mcaguire, the starmographer biographer has been very effective on this for the last few years and as he wrote in his column earlier in the week The messages stand up always told him in private, even if they wouldn't say it in public and it's sort of Peter Madison, one of what Whatspp messages refers it as the Patrick McGuire syyndrome, which is basically, you know in the end It takes you over and consumes you and as the full reality trenches around you and I think that's what will happened to many members the Parlientary Labour Party I've got a question which is, How do you think Darren Jones' leadership on campaign's going Be I read in the newspaper earlier this week that he was thinking of running for leader. This is the Chief Secretary to therime Minister, isn't he? and But she does very sort of informational videos on TikTok if you want to follow him. I don't think you should ever be snarky about people who are willing to put themselves forward and seek office in the public interest. And that's why I U think that It's wrong to assume If Andy Bern wins by election. There's just a correlation. I think by the way, if Andy Burndham loses this by election. the idea that this is good news for Kir Starmer is also totally for the birds. I mean If Andy Berham can't win in makeake a field, then Kir Stara and the government are an even bigger trouble. But if Andy Burnham wins, you know, I think there will be peopleeople who will be collecting names, I think they'll think that T for a contest is a Good thing, evil this destabilizing because they will think that B election has not persuaded them that Andy Boh has got all the answers and so May Dron Jones will be a candidate Can you get to eighty one H All two U let's turn next to the situation in Germany. I see. For a second then I thought you meant eighty two you actually just meant to. I just Carmorn. I mean, is It was always is the first Le Labour Party? The first leadership contest I voted in was as an MP was in the two thousand one and Michael Portillao was the person I supported. but there was a strong suggestion that Michael Portillao didn't even vote for himself It's possible to get zero in a leadership contest. Now listen, what about the situation in Germany? Be there are lots of parallels. to what's happening here in the UK, and we thought it would be worth just checking in politics on the other side of the channel and we'll turn to that next Still waiting in line Again That's time you will never get back. Save time and money with stamps d. comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot com. Join them to save up to ninety percent of carrier rates from your computer or phone right now Print posted for certified mail, registered mail, and packages in seconds. then schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps. com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift. Taxas and fease upon. You want to get your backyard summer ready, but you don't want to break the bank? Wayfare gets it. planning on dining alfresco or relaxing poolside Wayfair has everything you need to prep your space. Shop now and save up to seventy percent off during Wayfair's Fth of July clearance. sccore huge deals on outdoor furniture, area rugs, and more. We're talking thousands of products for every style and budget. Plus, sururprise Flash Deals July sixth. Don't wait. Shop Wayfare's Fth of July clearance now through july six at wayfare dot com d Pay fair, every style, every home. Welcome back So last year, Friedrich Merttz, the veteran of German politics who with three times tried to become Chancellor and leader of his party, finally made it to the Chancelly and there was a real feeling here is a serious guy who's used his time in the wilderness to learn lots of things about business who's going to come in and shake up a Moribunda Germany in a way that his predecessor his center left predecessor Olef Schultz had been unable to do and that he had a kind of charisma because he was, you know, he's a sort of tall serious No nonsense, individual who I actually know res me well and he hes suddenly, you know, he's engaging in private The early signs were quite strong because he made this really bold move to change the German Constitution borrow lotots more money to fund essentially the re armament of Germany in the face of the threat from Russia. And it was what you had actually advised the British Gvernment to do. back then and find space in the kind of fiscal rules. But the fiscal rules Let's be honest in Britain get changed all the time In Germany they hadn't been changed since the think since the founding of the kind of German repepublic after the war. I mean, it's absol entrenched in the German constitution that you should not run a budget deficit of any size So it all looked kind of Interesting and it all looked like the Franco German motor was back up and running at the heart of the European Union and so on Fast order year and it's all looking very, very. a week because he has a very low poll rating and his party has a very low poll rating. So he's very unpopular There are lots of stories about how he's a loner, he's operating in a sort of silo in Berlin. he hasn't made connections within his own party explains why he hadn't previously won the leadership of his party that he doesn't have close advisers, he doesn't have politicians around him who he can trust and that he's very unpolitical, that he keeps making esssentially gaffs or doesn't have the kind of touch you need to be a sort of smooth political operator and that his's great rival back in the day, Angela Merkel and it' always is a bit Starmarish. It's the guy the serious guy who's going to come in and sort everything out who actually turns out not to be a very good politician So The probleblem is Britain, Europe, the world does need Germany to get its act together. And it looks like they are drifting into a sort of British style political crisis right now it is so fascinating. The oldest ever person to become German Chancellor spent his campaign attacking competence and lack of vision of his predecessor. now mired. I mean, he is almost as unpopular as a manual macroon Kirststarmer. now after his slump in the polls, people say too focused on foreign policy. didn't really deliver on his tax promises I think to be fair to Macron, he's you know, that's after whatever it is eight years in office. I mean I wouldn't put Macron in the same category. But you know very focused on foreign policy D didn't deliver on his pledges. cuts to welfare and pensions, disappointed is base by doing a U turn on borrowing for defeence Hasn't got a growth plan, the economy not doing well, partly thrown off by what's going on with Donald Trump, but also decide as you say, for lack of vision. There is a great one year in peace by Derek Scally. in the Irish times in which you know A SPD says it's a huge problem. He's such an impulsive person. this is Murz and then CDU Allies of Merch did not race to contradict that observation with one senior advisor conceding that a main part of their job is to prevent Mertts in public repeating the last thing he's heard on any issue And he goes on, Merz is aware of the criticisms and in December fired a close advisor. So no vision saying the last thing he's been told, then firing his advisors when he gets frustrated I mean, it is but the other thing, of course It is what? The other thing of course, is that there is a popular You're about to say it's very similar to what's been going on in number ten. No, I'm going to add on there is a popular elected elected local government leader in his party. Not Andy Berden, but Heedrick Verst The fifty year old Prime Minister of North Rhine, West Falia Fall and Tie wearing actuallyctually, I think in a coalition up there with the Greens. so he's sort of in favor of a broader tent in his politics. and suddenly everybody's saying You know Why can't we have him? these much more popular Wh why can't we just Ditch Mertz and let Ver take over V doesn't say he wants a job. But of course in the German system, you don't have to be elected become the Chancellor. And so in exactly the same way as here in Britain, so soon in a parliament, I mean, look, to be fair to Mercy he didn't win a majority, but people are saying why can't we have The guy from the North who's much more popular and a bit younger and a bit more charismatic who could come and take over and make it all fine. I feel if he was called versed in in Britain, Mr. sausage, wouldn' it wouldn't quite have the charismatic appeal which it appears to have in North orine in West falia. I'm not sure whether you should tell people in politics for the surny because it could all work all work to your advantage Hm, I think I did once or twice, but then I gave up the habit Isn't there's another kind of parallel with Britain which is, okay, all of the sort of political class is obsessing with like who's the leader? Whereas there are someome long term fundamental problems with the German economy, just like with the British economy that they were the most competitive industrial economy in Europe. they were one of the largest exporters in the world. They had this huge trading relationship with China where they were actually exporting to China You know, they ditch a nuclear power after the Fukushhima accident in apan and went for a kind of cheap Russian gas to fuel this industry. And now years later, and they also gave up on reform Angela Merkel Chancellor for years and years and years. no significant economic reforms during her Chancellorship And now the kind of reality bites The Chinese are producing electric cars at half the price that are much better than the German auto industry is producing. the reliance on Russian energy turned out to be a geopolitical fiasco And they're having the same conversation we're having, which is like where is Germany's place in the world economy. Where are our big tech giants? Where's our role in artificial intelligence and quantum computing and all of this And where you know where is the modern manufacturing that China is seem