Most consequential elections in history

Still waiting in line? Again, That's time you'll never get back. Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot comot Join them to save up to ninety percent off carrier rates from your computer or phone right now. Print postage for certified mail, registered mail and packages in seconds, then schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps dot com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift Taxes and fees a lot. You want to get your backyard summer ready, but you don't want to break the bank? Wayfare gets it. Planning on dining alfresco or relaxing poolside Wayfair has everything you need to prep your space. Shop now and save up to seventy percent off during Wayfare's Fth of July clearance. Score huge deals on outdoor furniture, area rugs, and more. We're talking thousands of products for every style and budget. Plus, sururprise Flash Deals July sixth. Don't wait. Shop Wayfare's Fth of July clearance now through july six at wayfare dot com d Pay fair, every style, every home Your team just added its sixty seventh AI tool and also your sixty seven security blind spot Good news, The Vanta agent works like a GRC engineer in the background. every app your team uses, scoring the risk and drafting fixes for you Avanta is the platform used by over sixteen thousand fast moving companies like Ramp, Cursor, and Harvey who are shaping the future with AI and staying ahead of AI risk Get started at Vvanta. com Chancellor of the Exchquer Getting a lesson from the Shadow Chancellor on how to balance the books is like getting a lesson from Dracula and how to look after a blood bank. Ed Bs. A steady as she goes budget. What kind of ship does he think he's on the Titanic? Mry Celeste. Welcome to EMQs from Political Currency withith Ed Balls and George Osworne Hello, Wlcome to X Ministers Questions EMQs. We are broadcasting from our new studio in Hogson, our newly decorated studio here. It's a bit more trad in the kind of style than the St studio we had before. We like it. It's very cozy There's a nice pot plant. next to me If you haven't seen the pop plant, it's pop plant I fear it might be plastic Let's move on Anyway, we get before we get on TMQs, you know, one of the kind of big giants of politics from my childhood when I was watching on TV. has sadly died, Roy Hatterattersley. So he was I think he's died at the age of nineteen four And I was just looking up. I mean, he was a minister in the nineteen sixties And of course, in the ninet seventies he was the Secretary of state for prices and inccomes I probably thought we'd never again have another secretary for Pcess Incomes but the way the conversation of British politics scale at the moment might might have a future secary state for prices income. but I think from my person, speaking for myself I remember him really as kind of Neil Kenook's deputy in the kind of battle to get the lo by into the kind of centerground of British politics and electable again But I wasm trying to rem I'm not sure I ever did meet him in person. I met Dennis Healley, I met Roy Jenkins. I met other people of that kind of generation Maybe they're a slightly older generation But no, but presuming you did meet Roy Asdley, or you knew Roy Hzley I did meet Roy Hley lots of times, but actually rather unusually always at the football. He was a Sheffield lad, a big Sheffield Wednesday fan and went home in away been in the director's box at Hillsborough with Roy Hattersley. the director's box. That's how those labour politicians roll, ladies and gentlemen. Also They're in the stands with the working man Also at Cara Road, he I mean, he was sufficiently embedded inar It was Cara Rad. Norower City's ground. And he would travel with the J just testing the directors and I bab and his we don't speak a of the death, dead, but you know, you champagne socialists you know, what's wrong with the ho Pooy? I was the paid chairman of Nory Footbot Club, a great act of public service. and had lunch with Joy Hasley and Maggie his wife. And he was a very nice man. One of the I mean he was actually somebody who was you know, as well known as a writer than as a politician in that sort of tradition like Roy Jenkins Winston Church Hill where who were kind of very skilled and very prolific Roy Hadley was writer I think he was part of that kind of rather tragic generation of labour politicians who, I mean he did have a brief time in the cabinet As you said with Jim Callahghan, but eighteen years in opposition, which was the prime of his political life without a chance back into government. He lost the leadership election to Neil Kinick, but then won the deeputy leadship election. and served with Neil Killick all through those years. He was shed a Chancellor, shhut a homeome and I think he's a bit of an unsung hero really because Neil Kinnick rightly gets huge credit for taking labour from the catastrophe of Michael Foot and the eighty three defeat through to electibility, although he couldn't get there himself mid nineteen ninety two handed over to Tony Blair and waited He lost twice I mean, Labour stick with their leaders after they lose elections, certainly. He lost in eighty seven and then stood down in nineteen ninety two. So he lost ones. No, and ninety two. You lost the eighty seven election and the ninety two. Oh I see yes They didn't stick with him when he lost to ninety two. he was gone. But Roy Hattersley with Neil Kinnick was there throughout that period veryy loyal deputy very much part of that sort of early modernization. The interesting thing about Roy Hatley he ended up being a rather aggressive critic of the Tony Blair government, particularly on education He was a big champion of comprehensive education, very critical of the academies Well, and yes, and the broader education push. And he said that he never changed his views. He just went from being On the right of the Labour Party under Howd Wilson to be on the left of the Labour Party under Tony Blair. and it wasn't me who changed, it was them And we we will say that, don't we? to justify He became a Lord but I don't think he ever participated in the House of Lords. He really moved on from politics to to writing. I remember seeing as part of his the obituaries The Grenard lecture he did about Cornation Street. Very thoughtful, interesting guy. That was a cell lecture about coronations. He did a lecture about C Street and its cultural impact. as an avid Yeah. he was he was a good man, Roy Hisley. Of course, for most people listening to this podcast, what they'll actually remember him for is the spitting image caricature and the no show on Have I Gten News for you That is right. where They put a big tub of lard in his place. And he didn't up. commommissioned him to write an article for The Sunday Times. He thought that was more important. He pulled out of Have I Gun U three at the last minute and they put a tub of lard in his place and took the thisiss out of him for twenty five minutes. I think you if you Roy Has it, you probably loved it No, I think you probably didn't. But I te it since you've spotked a memory which is You say that he spent, you, the best years of his sort of political life in opposition and that was a waste. When I became a new MP, there was a leadership contest, almost immediately because William Haig had resigned And it came down to a vote between Ken Clark and Ian Duncan Smith And it was a vote of the members of the Tory Party. and I was the member of Parliament for Tattan and the Tatan Conservativative Association was the biggest Conservatative Association in the north of England. to have the most members So therefore, if you wanted to win this contest, you had to come and speak a Tatan. So I arranged for Ian and Ken to come and speak separately not on the same occasion to the members in this packed hall, I was a brand new MP Age thirty Came tw got up And this very opening line was I don't want your new MP, George Osborne to be the next Roy Hattersley I looked there was this room like, what on earth is he talking about? And I was like, what is he talking about? And he said, I don't want George to spend the best years political career position to get back into government levels his argument And at that point, he'd won the room. Unfortunately, then I started talking about the Eururo and everything I could see the room being completely lost But I remember thinking that is that was such a sort of powerful and fairly straightforward Message about winning in politics. Neil Kenick has Joe Kaufman Yeah all at the top of the Labour Party Ring the ears of neveren Brian Gould. Brian Gould went back NewZland,n't it? That's tr Anyway, we wish u Roy has his family well and he made a big contribution to our public life. Let's start with our first question and that comes from Jude Hello Edan George. In loving the podcast lately, especially last week's impressions. In a recent interview with the Telegraph, Al Kenes revealed he'd only met with the PM in an official capacity once in his two years as a member of the defefense ministerial team How does this compare with the frequency other PMs have met with junior ministers? and will we see this have a negative impact on his relationship with them in a potential leadership challenge following the by election later this week Or could this buy him political capital in order to leave on his own terms Thank you Dude, thank you for your question. I mean that I was pretty staggered when I saw that So It's perfectly normal for a prrime Mister to spend most of their time withith members of the cabinet. Indeed most of their time with senior members of the cabinet. The truth is the Pim Mister spends a lot of time with their Chancellor home seecretary and with and with their team in Downing Street And they wouldn't regularly have a meeting with a junior minister without the cabinet minister being there because disobliging to the cabin mininister But Two things. One is certainly, you know the experience I had with David Cameron, which is the one I can speak to. David would bring in the ministerial teams from departments for regular checkups, so be the health department, the education department. So as well as meeting the Secretary of state separately, he'd bring the junior ministers in with the Secretary of State and they have a discussion. And then there were some junior ministers who are clearly kind of rising stars or that their junior ministerial brief was sufficiently important. Some of the junior ministerial jobs Light Minister for the Ared Forces, the job that Al Kz was doing. or you know, Minister for prrisons. There are some of those mininister of State jobs which are almost kind of cabinet level in terms of the responsibilities where absolutely they would have the sort of lead on the policy and the primister to engage with them And that wasn't just makeake sure that the government was being well run. That was also Cameron making sure he was keeping check with the most important supportters any Prime Minister has. which are his junior ministerial ranks. you know, that's where the strength of Prime Minister as in the Parliamentary partarty often comes from what's called the payroll And I'm sure that would be true of almost all other prime ministers, and I'm not saying Camera was in any way special in this respect So it was absolutely staggering. that Kiss armor only met with Alhans once in his two years and partarticularly with a row kind of brewing on defense and rs about the, you know, Eents investment plan and I find it. surprising may be quite revealing. Let us try to be charitable first. I don't think in the year I was economic Secretary. two thousand six seven Junior minister in the Treasury I had meetings with Tony Blair. I think Tony Blair would have talked to Gordon Brown And I think the truth is if Kistarm is talking about deffence policy clear that what he gets out of a conversation with Al Keairnes he can't get with a conversation with John Heley when he was Defense Secretary. There are times where you have unusual or ministers Th think about Josh McCallister, who's on spepecial education needs reform over recent months or Jess Phips on Violence against women. the junior ministers really know the subject, but I you know, I think it would be usual Prime Misters not to meet quite a lot of judior ministers. although as you say, it's not necessarily good politics, not to see the whole H when you se to say for education families and I think you got it Would you have sort of brought your junior ministers into a downowning street strategy meeting or not? I the schools minister Jim Knight or Vernan Coker, the Chren's mininister, I of Bev Hughes, I would have wanted them there because they had an expertise and I would thought they would help us persuading the Prime Minister of the right path, but I'm not sure number ten would necessarily have ask for it I think the issue here is though about what you hear about this number ten And I think West Street has said this quite openly And I know from him this to be true I mean we're trereating as cabinet minister We didn't have very many meetings, in fact, very few meetings with Kist Stara and outside the sort of formality of a big cabinet office stocktake They were very rare indeed. And if you look back to Last weekend, Tom Baldwood writing about Kar Stara by number ten, how in the case of Defence policy, KS Stma you know, in a room on his own all the spreadsheets poring over the detail, trying to find the answer. When you look at the profiles in recent months from Tim Shipman has written this about how even number ten staffers, let alone cabinet ministers veryy little face tie with ked armour. I think the striking thing about the way he's run this government is not that he's not spent much time with junior ministers It doesn't seem to spend huge time with coverment ministers either. And that actually may be a deeper problem. It's a team sport And you need to have the people around you to sound off and engage and No, if Wes is right ' quuite an issue question, Jude. thank you. Now our next question is from someone who's been a goovernment minister A Labour Government Minister, Baroness Jan Royal. and Jan, it's good to have you on the show. She is the chair of the Joe Cox Foundation. Hello, Edin George. John Royal here, chair of the Joe Cox Foundation It's the tenth anniversary of Joe's murder after which many promises were made Reflecting on the last ten years, what progress do you think has been made in living up to Joe's message that we have more in common than that which divides us And what more do you think we need to do in politics and society to uphold that message It would be great if you could discuss this Thank you So great question from Jan. notot only chair of the Joe Cox Foundation, Also ex labour leader in the House of Lords under Gordon Brown worked for Neil Kinnick back in the day. I think was head of Somerville College as well, but she has a kind of a very active House of Lord's lineage. And it was actually Jan who came to us a few months ago and said Centy's dad are playing the W rats this summer. Could it be proceeds to the Joe Cox Foundation on the tenth year anniversary and that is what we are doing and As we said we said at the main podcast, we're also giving out two tickets to anybody who sends in a question as a kitchen cabinet member with Sentrist dad in the But J that's just a gratuitous plug and sodle to do with a gr It's a gratuitous plug for the Joe Cox Foundation who get every penny of the ticket prices from our gig at the request of the fabulous generaloyal Baroness Royal, who has said in this question. So is it a plug? Yes. But it's pluggged for a good cause. It's for very, very good But going to the seriousness of the, you know, and the briefing notes put out this week by and common Coxo wrote an article, Jan has been saying these things as well. If anything, I think the judgment of the foundation is that things have gone backwards, not forwards in the last ten years, whether you talk about threats to members of Parliament, loneliness, or the sense of community cohesion and cross party commonality in our society their view as things have gone And that is a worrying and pressing message to get from Jan and the foundation, but I'm afraid it's true and to in a way, reflecting what we talked about on the main podcast, If you look at in the Mak of field bia election, I think there's some social market foundoundation research which highlights this, since the beginning of the B election in that area on social media Big rise in social media propagated, untrue myths Mbe focus on Andy Burnham and his family. That's a material thing which has happened as a political consequence of this by election On the one hand, have we moved away from politics kind of person on person abuse, if anything, it's sort of worse the way in which our politics discourse is so ing of the integrity. politicians on the other side of the aisle. I don't know whether you saw this. David Lammy called this out in Prime Misters questions this week when the Conservative MP Matt Vickers being interviewed about the Kiestara and the attacks on him from kind of It's seemingly Russian infiltrating individuals, the asked for attack. And he started saying, you know Well, you know, no smoke without fire. what's really gone on here? I he was actually sort of ating some of the pretty disreutable myths which are around. so Don't do that. That is not the right way to conduct our political discourse pololitician on politician But then also that As we said last week, there is now a more overt conversation about ethnicity. and Social division, Richy Soonack removes soell a bravermen for saying there could be two tier policing, which was anti white. This has now become a commonplace thing to say four years on Yeah, I mean, you know, it's still very much actuallyed in my memory. day poor Joe was killed, terrible day. And it was you know because it's the tenth anniversary. and if you've listen to our main podcast, you been reminded if you didn't already know it's the tenth anniversary of Brexit. You know, she was killed just a week or so before the Brexit referendum And it was the day I was giving the mansion house lecture or speech with Mark Carney, now Prime Minister of Canada he was governor of the Bank of England. And you know, I called him up and said, this murder hass happened. I don't think we should give our speeches. which just, you know, we're going to have to just We can go to the dinner and get up and say I think it's appropriate to give a big speech And I' think every MP thought, gosh, there but for the grace of God goes I. And of course since then we've had another MP murdered by a constituent David Amos terrible day for us because it was reported withithout a name this had happened to a West Yorkshire MP. it could have been. And all of our children were straight on to me. asking that question and it was deeply traumatizing. for them in particular. I mean, that is just the nature of politics in modern Britain, but I mean, it was ye all day, which particularly But our kids lasted a very long time. You say it was a I mean it sort of heralded an age Until I think until then Ive always I actually had police protection as Chancellor, but It felt as a constuency andP basically very safe And I think after that, every MP thought actuallyually I don't know who's walking through the door. and they've had to spend lots of money on kind of security measures for surgeries and so on. Cstituency surgeries. But I mean to Joan's question I mean, I wish I could give a more positive answer I don't think Joe's message about, you know reflecting on what unites us rather than divides us is heard in our politics in our society. and so it hasn't been heard so much in the last ten years U and whether that's, you know, because everyone's angrier because other kind of general economic sluggishness of the country, whether it's You know, the rise of populace all you know, interconnected with that, whether it's social media that peopleople seek out to say more extreme things in order to grab attention. Wh knows But I don't think it is heading in the right direction. What I do think is heading in the right direction. I think you know, the fact often when someone's killed in a tragic situation the family and friends do set up kind of foundations and legacies and that kind of thing quite often don't last that long their like. gestures of love and support in the immediate aftermath and then, you know, two years later, they kind of quietly Um why, you know, wind down frankly But the fact that ten years on the Joe Cox Foundation is going well, U The more in common work is very prevalent in our sort of political discourse I think is a real tribute to all those who have taken on her legacy And of course her sister came into Parliament in her seat. Anyway, we wish Jo's family well on this very painful anniversary. And there is something we can do. It's partly about the discourse of politics in the couple of years after this tragic murder when this was first being commemorated Michael Gov I did ganggham style together in a lift in the department? It's possible to do cross party things. is what Joe would have wanted.c The discourse of politics doesn't have to be divisive and nasty, but also returning to also what we said in last week's podcast, social media companies are not platforms said publishers and they have to take the responsibility. If you go to make a field, I mean whether it's driven by politics or driven by seeking advertising revenue If you see a surge in fake news in a by election, aimed at Andy Burnham publishing and do something about that and they should This gang themsel on list was anyone else there Camber M mean like the security camera No No, no, no it was no, no, no, no, it was it wasn't illicit. I you were both closed We were entirely clothed and we intended to do it and You know, I didn't leave my wife for him And who was underneath him Who was on top and it was on we were we were dancing, standing up did someone go through someone else's legs in gang them stle? We didn't do all of it. For kitchen cabinet members, we'll put a clip in our newsletter and you can see it and it's pure unadulterated but innocent truth. and on that note we'll take a break . Still waiting in line Again That's time you'll never get back. Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot comot Join them to save up to ninety percent off carrier rates from your computer or phone right now. Print postage for certified mail, registered mail and packages in seconds. thenen schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps dot com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift Taxes and fees a lot. If You want to get your backyard summer ready, but you don't want to break the bank? Wayfare gets it. Planning on dining alfresco or relaxing poolside Wayfare has everything you need to prep your space. Shop now and save up to seventy percent off during Wayfair's Fourth of July clearance. sccore huge deals on outdoor furniture, area rugs, and more. We're talking thousands of products for every style and budget. Plus, surprise Flash deals July sixth. Don't wait. Shop Wayfare's Fourth of July clearance now through july sixth at wayfare dot com d Pay fair, every style, every home. team just added its sixty seventh day AI tool. And also your sixty seven security blind spot. The good news, the Vanta agent works like a GRC engineer in the background every app your team uses, scoring the risk and drafting fixes for you Avanta is the platform used by over sixteen thousand fast moving companies like Ramp, Cursor, and Harvey who are shaping the future with AI and staying ahead of AI risk Get started atvanta. com Welcome back, here's a question from David. Hello, Ed George. I love your well produced podcast. You can tell this as I've now called up the last two years' worth My question is whether politicians would be better off truly listening to the people and acting earlier We have a habit in this country of letting a problem that everyone knows about build up an ar and then doing a large reactive over correction later. politicians listen to the public around Mastit or Lisbon. Some of the heat might have been removed from the Brexit debate. The most pressing current one is around immigration To summarize, as Emily Thornby found out on her excursion to the suburbs able a politicians to change the view of a nation? or is it that white vanman is always right and politicians just trail along in their wake goodoodness, White vanman. Do they speak the truth Well, what do you think presum me u Wh Vanman was very prevalent as a For people who don't know, I' in and many people do, White Van Man was a phrase, I think really coined by the sun newspaper, wasn't it to speak to a kind of, I think what in a previous generation they might have called like Essex man who's like basically a hard wororking builder, plumber self employed, going out to work Aspirational on's doing their own home you know, wants the police to do their job. veryery keen on welfare, that kind of thing. And the two political back then the To mainstream political parties, Labour and consonservatives would kind of fight over white van Man And I think White Van Man even had a column in the sun, obviously not written by Yite Vanan, but We go written by George Pasco Watson or something like that. I can in fact tell you a story about that, which was I can't know which budget it was. may have been two thousand or two thousand one. we were doing welfare reform, but increasing the generosity of tax credits while being tough on work rules and Dian and political editor Trevor Kavada was in touch to say They want the treasury to calculate whether white manan ban would be better off And white van Man was in fact in his white van driving around Parliament Square And we set up a call with the treasury officials who investigated the detail and But that going into, you know, the kind of the murky reality because I don't know what the murky reality was Senior civil servant came in aboutb an hour later while White Van Man was still driving around Parliament Square to say It's a bit complicated And we've looked at the tax benefit situation and You know you asked whether we could get the numbers and allow a phot opportunity in Downing Street. They said um We just don't think that would be wise H It would not be a wise move. What with this specific individual Or just with any any white van man. I didn't want to know the detail of this individual But they had fouled out the individual's details And I didn't ask them he was doging details? I don't know. And The individual details weren't passed to me, and I rang Trevor Kader and said Trevor I don't know the individual details. I don't want to know and you don't want to know But rather than do the photo, tell White Vanman to drive south fast and let's just leave it there. But isn't it part of the White Van Man thing is of course he does cash in hand jobs. That was the, I mean, I remember there was an attempt when I was a treasurey. It was One of the junior Treasury ministers was talking about tightening up tax enforcement to getting trying to get rid of kind of cash in hand jobs from the building trade And everyone was outraged. The God given rightite for your self employed builder not to pay any tax? I don't think there's cash in hand, there's complex situations, there's all sorts of things which are entitlements and truths and realities. And all I know is in a very civil servicey way I don't think if they took her on their ways Raised eyebrows. However, what is this was a serious point, the seriousious question about this is about politicians leading opinion or being led by serious point If you don't start by listening And you don't hear what people are saying If you decide you know better and they're wrong You fail politically So on the immigration debate, you have to listen, you have to hear And What White Van Man does is express a often a widespread view, and it's not about one individual If if they're expressing a widespread view, you've got to listen politically and understand that. However You've also got to then lead and persuade And you don't have to sort of take I v you as a truth. You don't have to be passive Yes, the answer David is that you can persuade people the right path. You don't do that if you don't start the conversation Yeah, I think this is this is the always the central kind of dilemma in politics, to what degree following opinion and what degree leading it There is no doubt, politicians who simply look at opinion polls or focus groups and repeat back to the public what the public have said are not going to succeed.'s notership. The public hold a set of contradictory reviews which even they kind of often acknowledge are somewhat contradory. What they want is leadership and you don't get ultimately do get real change unless politicians make arguments and then try and change people's views. And there's lots, you know we don't have time here, but the history is full of very successful examples of people quite dramatically changing the country's views on things. I mean, most obvious, you know, something like the death penalty O u gay marriage or, you know, things that people were very against In case desper very four and then over time, political leadership in the face of Majority opinion did change that opinion. So I think it's a but you're right that if you do it with a kind of scent of I think the publican detective there's a disdain for the public You can treat them with enormous respect, listen and still say I respectfully disagree and I think we should do this And I'm going to persuade you why leadership rather than I don't really care what you think That that's not leadgership. You're going to vote leave. You're stupid. Let me tell you why you're wrong You're going to vote Lave. Let's talk about what is going wrong in our society, What can we do better? Is leaving the opinion Union really going to help? Those are the two versions of that conversation We'll need to move on. The nextext question is somebody who wants to remain anonymous? We'll call it Emily. And this has been voiced by one of our producers. Hi, Edan George Do you think the free childcare hours that are routinely mentioned by government ministers in TV interviews should be available to those earning above one hundred thousand pounds? Alternatively, do you think the tapering of the personal allowance at this level should be reassessed? There is no tapering at this salary level but a cliff edge fully appreciate that I'm in a fortunate position But I currently earn a salary that puts me in the hundred thousand. Tp I've done the numbers and realiseed that I would be better off earning ninety nine thousand and thus gaining the free childcare hours It seems a perverse position in our tax and benefit system that the government is actively encouraging me to earn less and pay less tax especially as if a couple were both earning ninety nine thousand each and thus a lot more money overall. They would not lose the childcare hours This is a complicated one and And it's the kind of conversation We will have had very many times when we were in the treasury at different times and Economic evidence is that tax rates and incentives don't tend to have a big impact on the behaviour of people who are working forty hours and you know whether their tax rate is forty percent or forty five percent But in particular for people children who are deciding whether to work or not and how many hours to work. whether you're better off whether you get the benefits really has an impact. and that's what all the historic evidence is. And this is a good example of that because in this case, Emily Because of the particular perverse way the tax system and benef system works and char entitlement As she says, she's worse off If she earns over a hundred thousand and loses childcare, then if she works fewer hours earns less money And the real reason why that's happening is because of this cliff edge which happens at a hundred thousand. And in making tax and benefit policy, a cliff edge is cheaper and cleaner clever can also lead to this kind of unfairness and perverity ex explain to people what do you mean by Ciff Edge? Cliff Ege me Up to a hundred thousand, you get it From a hundred thousand on, it goes entirely to zero And the same thing happened with child benefit when you withdrew child benefit. The alternative thing to do is to say Okay, will you get all of it to ninety thousand hundred thousand. and then for every pound you earn, we will only give a you fifty percent and then thirty percent and then ten percent. so you taper it away. and as she says, the personal allowance, which is a benefit to her is tapered away over time and that's been taken away. but the Childcare, which is a benefit to her, is removed entirely in one cliff edge moment and that is where the unfairness or the the perceived unfairness comes from And you know, in general If you dig into the politics of cliff edges They tend to become messy and difficult better to spend the money and manage the taper. in my experience I don't think generally we did cliff edges because in the end cause exactly the kind of problems that Emmily' talking about here No, look I have a lot of sympathy for Emily's situation. Even though on any kind of broader look at society, she's definitely one of the highest earners in the country Um, but The statistics don't speak to what her experience will be. But earning a hundred thousand pounds, she still struggling with all the pressures on her and and feels she's being very unfairly treated by the tax system And the truth is she is been quite unfairly treated. Now, it's not much of a consolation as Ed says, in fact, the Chancellor of the day And treasury officials will know that This is not something that is unknown inside the treasury because every time you do a budget presented with a chart which shows the marginal tax rate for individuals at different points in the income scale and what potential reforms you could make to basically alleviate it. And for some time ever since Alista Darling removed the personal allowance as part of the post financial crash you know, initial dose of like I've got to fill the black ho He removed the personal allowance for people earning over one hundred thousand pounds And that started to create this sort of very high marginal withdrawal rate addd to it. Some of the changes I introduced like removing child benefit, add to it, this is the change that I think the Sunac government did on child carere hours And then Jeremy Hunt actually, I think reduced in the rate of which the forty five p tax comes in, all of which speaks to You know, you're earning some of sort one hundred twenty hundred and twenty five hundred thirty thousand pounds, you're facing much higher tax rates than people who Okay, unless you maybe no surprise there but than people who earn more than you, and that's very unfair. Why does it happen I mean, it happens for two reasons. One is It's just, you know, when you're when you're trying to tax Millions of millions of people. You do get these messy situations. It's not always as neat as it should be or you would like to believe if you were designing a tax system from scratch it could be The problem with the tapers, which you talked about is that they are themselves very complicated quite often can require people to fill in tax returns who otherwise wouldn't have to fill in tax returns that could all be done through PAYE And so it's a big administrative burden on individuals and on HMLC. And I can see, you know, I wasn't there at all for this decision around childcare, but just to see like we're trying to intduce this thing. It's expensive How are we going to be able to justify giving this things to millionaires? I know, we'll just have a cut offff at one hundred thousand pounds And that kind of decision it feels quite bold and, you know Dh But that is how policy making often happens. You've just got to make you make a decision. But it creates these perverse situations The problem is I don't want to disappoint Emily. There's no I can't really see the politics in the name of anyone trying to solve it. I imagine if you' had a prolonged period of prosperity where people weren't trying to kind of nick little bits of tax revenue here and there. freeze thresholds you know, do stealth taxes like this You can imagine a sort of chancellor reforming this whole area in a budget. But until that point, I'm afraid it's not working for you. And actually she points out if you are a two earner cap couple with independent taxation, both earning ninety nine thousand pounds, then that feels particularly unfair, but that is the independent taxation system. And if you don't do this as a within the household assessed benefit system you d to the tax system. this is the kind that perverse incentive which go gets thrown up. 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Shop Wayfare's Fth of July clearance now through july sixth at wayfare dot com d ay fair, every style, every home final question is from Duncan and George, I think this is going to be aallenge for you Duncan from Ottawa, Ontario here. I was sorry to hear George conclude that he thinks Ottawa is a dour place based on one visit in the rain. I hope that Prime Minister Carney can convince George to return when it might be sunny, when Ottawa presents much more colorfully. My question is What do you think are the big swing elections in history? For example Al Gore had won the two thousand presidential election the United States would have gone to war against climate change and would not have gone to war against Iraq what are the other elections that might have produced a much different result in history So George, Duncan says you don't understand Ottwa is not Dour. H Well maybe I didn't explain myself very clearly. So the day I was there or the two days I was there, it was pissing the rain. it was. even the most even Venice or Florence in the pouring rain is quite hard to you know, really enjoy, let me put it that way It was more a kind of commentary on the architecture. I met Dur in a kind of Edinburgh, Glasgow, set it reminded me very much of a kind of northern British city for good reason which list was at the time built as the new capital and, you know, the new capital of Canada and u somewhere between Toronto and Quebec and or Ontario and Quebec and You know,' one of the re it's been like Camera is halfway between Sydney and Melbourne and Washington is halfway between the north and the south you know, that these new capitals are built like that. and it was clearly, you know, there's a there's a big Scottish ancestry, isn't there to some of the Canadian settlers and It just the builders s of very mod. Geor. You are talking at length in your desperate desire No I't desguy the fact. I tell you it basically trash I to not what when I went. it was suddenly I really liked it. I thought the parliament was spectacular. I mean, from the outside, they're renovating it, which is what we should be doing in Britain. I think we should go ont to the substance Well just honestly, this is the whole Yeah dicking I'm saying anyway, I didn't not like it but that way. Okay Damn take now Damn I look he's totally right Algore election was one of those e? Well, okay, it's a good question because you could nine and eleven would have happened, right Yes, Oh D deffinitely. O. O Calm on. those people were planning for years to fly into the bit. But it may have been that the intelligence would have been taken more seriously by Bill Clinton then al go George B right? George Bush that He said Bill Clinton know, but I mean but Bill Clinton had received intelligence taking it seriously. Al Gore might have treated it differently. Maybe their eye was off the ball. Maybe they wouldn't have gotone into Afghanistan. Maybe that wouldn't have had to Iraq. I don't know. The thing you know is on climate change, it would have been different. Okay, no, sure. look I think the start of the Iraq warar. I think there's almost nine eleven would have happened. that would have been the Afghan warar But it's pretty likely there wouldn't have been the Iraq warar, right? But you go in one hundred schedule, but Climate, yes. you every Democrat president engages in the kind of global climate fight. and every Republican president essentially pulls the US out of it. So I'm not sure that zero one was really consequential any more so than any other presidential election on climate U I think what about in I thought I'll take you two kind of really consequential elections in my view So first is the The nineteen eighty. presidential election. The election of Reagan You know, I think that is a big shift in American policy, which lots of people didnn't applaud at the time and don't like But I think if Carter got reelected I don't think we would have had the kind of Reagan decade, obviously self ey. But what I mean is It felt like America had turned a corner, which I'm not sure Carter would have been able to pull off. Although I have a huge amount of you know, I met Jimmy Arica a few times and went to his home. So I Persally, I like him a lot And I think in British politics, I think there are two elections. If you look at the The nineteen eighty three election, which could easily You know, thatch could have lost after four years of painful economic medicine and a recession The Falklands warar kind of essentially So and Michael Foot being the labour leader helps. But I think, you know, if the factual revolution hadn't happened You'd snap back to a labour government. That would have been pretty consequential in Britain And I was thinking, what about the twenty nineteen election? or the twenty seventeen election? Jeremy Corbin against Tsa May in twenty seventeen. I mean he gets within three or four seats of being the Prime Mister of Britain. I mean, it is an unbelievably close election. She only survives by Cbbling together a deal with the Ulster Unionist We would have had Jeremy Corbn as our leader I mean, who knows what would happen with Brexit, which we've been discussing on our main podcast And all of that because it was all the aftermath of Brexit of the Brexit referendum, but not the actual deed. But how think of how It would have been like a very British coup. you know that novel from the past, that TV series as well of a kind of radical left prime minister and essentially ousted by the kind of army and the intelligence services H W she have How would a Corbyn premisise ever played up? Well, see, it's interesting. I wrote down on my way in this morning two different elections. I didn't choose twenty seventeen