The Legacy of Recent Prime Ministers

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Direct deosit one thousand dollars a month fund invest account for a point five percent incase cash account offered by Wealthront broerage LL member Fin S IPC in a This is political currency withith Ed Balls and George Osborne. So hello and welcome to this special episode of Political Currency with Ed Balls and George Osborne Now you've almost certainly seen the news this morning, even if you weren't watching it live on Good Morning Britain. Kirarmer has resigned as leader of the Labour Party. and set the timetable. for his departure and for him handing over the position of Prime Minister. We're live on YouTube now This episode will also drop on our podcast platforms Surely And it was u in the end at the very end, look, it was it was a pretty Clear this was going to happen when Downing Street were not commenting overnight on the expectation of a resignation statement. and then as we were live and goodoodorning Britain, suddenly Before the assembled press pack, the podium was brought out into a Downing Street. the speech ended on a rather unusual for kiss armour moment of emotion when he paid tribute to his wife, Victoria and to his two children and was Tearful before hugging his wife and go back into Downing Street. But what did you think of this statement, Georgean Well It it's good to be on the show. and by the way, something has just happened to me that has never happened to me before in my life. I was vox popped in the street by a camera crew asking what I thought of Kir Starmer's resignation just as a regular member of the public, by ITV, by your outfit. And then they suddenly went, hold on, isn' that Isn't that George? And I went Yeahah, I'm actually on my way to a podcast. He said, Oh Ed Balls won't mind doing the reaction here. And I said, no, no, I' got to save it for the podcast So I they should be exclusive Yes Um I mean, I'm going to be look, it's obviously a moment of personal sadness for him And unlike some prime ministers who sort of know they're up against it from the moment they become Prime Minister, because they're kind of tail in Charlieiess And I think Richy Sonack always knew you'd have a challenge winning an election and so on I think Kestaro two years ago would have expected to be a Prime Minister at least five years, maybe ten, fifteen years And so it's obviously a personal tragedy of him and a disaster for Lad Body, which we'll come on to But I'm afraid and I don't mean to be uncharitable on such a difficult day for him. I mean, the speech in many ways summed up the problems of the Premiership there was no overarching theme of what he felt he had achieved in office beyond the very act of getting labour in whichich in the history of the Labour Party might have some significance, but to the rest of the country, who cares? And And then he reels off a list of achievements, as he would put it. twowo of which I think anyone listening to would go, youve got to be kidding And one was restore Britain's reputation in the world And second was kind of restore economic stability. I mean Those are two things that are absolutely. not the case when Britain has yet another brand new prrime Minister coming just, you know two years after the last one So I felt the speech was apart from the emotional bit at the end about his, you know, thanking his wife and his children, which, you know I've lived in that building and I know how intense it can be I thought the fact he couldn't sum up his goovernment At the end of it sort of spoke to the problem, which is he didn't know what it was for at the beginning of it Look, there is a tendency to eogize when leaders are And u And also to be emotional, I remember Gordon Brown and his children leaving Downing Street, but I'm afraid I'm going to have to agree with you about this. I mean it did feel like it was rushed and thin. I think they may have decided This wasn't the moment for the big baledictory statement, the big statement of Kistara's achievements that will come later and they wanted to make sure that they get some lines into the first draft of the obbitaries more morning in the political ob bititaries in particular, the fight on anti Semitism. But as you said, even at the end It wasn't a speech which had emotion and passion There was a list of achievements which were was a bit kind of Cy the cool And you know I thought the small boats achievement was also one hell of a boat to to make them politically Um and There was no sense of the state he inherited the country and what he's done to heal or the nature of the challenges which are still faced and his worries and concerns about the the future and you know, harking back to our podcast last week when I mentioned Liz Kendall not being mentioned on social media when Kir said because of the choices that I made at the beginning of his list of achievements and I'm thinking Kia, it's a team sport The whole the cabinet, who you want to go out there and make public declarations of support I mean, share your achievements, but also share your errors. And there was no reflection on mistakes made or in acknowledging of that. It was almost as though his departure was being to him. So in that sense, it did feel a bit of a microcosm of the whole premiership, not really able to tell a story with passion and to show learning and so I'mfraid thought the same way as you did Yeah, I can see why you might not feel it' a team sport this sporning because his team, you know tied him to the post and had a firing squad. But I agree with you, you know, even if that's the reality of what has happened in the last few days If you want to speak up speak to your, you know, what you feel you've achieved in number ten over two years You know, you want to bind other people into it so that it's a shared legacy. Otherwise, it's just your legacy and you're the only person who will fight and defend it. What about what happens next? I mean, I think I know what happens sex. Tell me why I'm wrong if I'm wrong I mean, although he set out a timetable for a leadership contest, almost immediately after his resignation To things happened. Andy Burnham confirmed he was a candidate shock of the year or shock of the decade if he said he was't. And then where Streeting said, I'm backing Andy Burnham. So presumeably, you know, it's highly likely, I know in politics, nothing is U you know one hundred percent, but it's very, very likely now that Andy Bernam will be the prrime Minister By what the ninth of July or the sixteenth of July in mid July. I think it I think it's onlyly I think it's highly likely Andy Burnnam becomes Prime Minister. And if he becomes Prime Minister He becomes Prime Minister on the sixteenth, seventeenth of july on the basis of what Kir Starmer has set out. and of course, it's for the Labour National Executive Committee to actually confirm this. What Kir Starmer did was, he said that the nominations for the leader open on the ninth of July. Close on the sixteenth of july and that he would stay on Prime Mister until the process is complete and parliament returns and that would be beginning of September, if there was to be a contest. But as you say I'm If nobody gets the eighty one nominations other than Andy Burnham. Andy Burnham does become Prime Minister on the sixteenth, seventeenth of September. just in passing Jly July sorry July ye of July In passing because it's just an interesting thing to know, but let me come back to answer your question And Parliament rises on the sixteenth of july So Andy Berham would become the prrime Mister Parliament p When Kist Aarma was When Gordon Brown became Prime Mister within government He took over that and almost immediately was in Promis' questions. Theereresa May I think had eight or ten days between her becoming the Prime Minister the end of July and the Parliament rising for the summer Normally if you become Prime Minister, you have a moment where you are acclaimed, you at the very beginning Andy Burnham on this basis if there's no contest doesn't become Prime Mister until some weeks into his premiership And by the time he becomes therefore the prime Mister at prromise' questions, he's already having to deal with events which have occurred, decisions he may have made, mistakes which have gone wrong. So he doesn't get that clean moment in Parliament And it's a bit easier for Keby Baynoock to do actually what you and David Cuman did to George to Gordon Brown on his first day and throw him off with with difficult questions. But U E if there's no contest and I think that is likely Because of the timetable which is set, there will now be a pre contest from today until the sixteenth of july where people will seek to get nominations. As you said, Well h, let me let me just question you on that Ed. Isn't it a done deal? Aren't all these people at Al Keairns going go No, no, I'm going to trade in now. I'm going to try and book my slot in the Burnham Gvernment by coming out with professions of loyalty. so that you might know within You know, as I say a day or two, that there's not going to be a contest. Andy Burnham's about to be crowned And then Starber, by the way, doesn't even get his I mean, he does in of theory get his three weeks but not in practice because You know sorry, in practice he won't because you know, it'll be clear Andy Burns's the Prime Minister within a day or two. Well it slightly re it depends how you read what West Streeting has done. I mean what West Streeting has done is announce he is going to challenge Andy Burnham Put his name in the frame. and then withdrawn with an expectation that's going to be part of the Burnham Candabate If you are a coming young potential minister who wants to get their name in the frame Why don't you follow the same patter backack in twenty ten when I did the Leg of election, we had public hustings, not just of the Parliamentary Labour Party in public during the period when nominations were going to be were being sought. U And it is quite possible that somebody thinks, look at mean, know, there's been speculation about Darren Jones. someomebody senior Well, somebody more Junior thinks it's good to have a debate Good to put Andy under pressure. I would like to have the profile. I want to be interviewed on the television every day for the next three or four weeks It might be that somebody says, I can't believe labour is about to have an election where there is no woman stands and therefore a woman is puts themselves forward and even if they end up at the end drawing to support Andy Berner, but at least they've had a woman in the frame. I don't think it will be a senior member of the cabinet, but it could happen. So look you may be right in forty eight hours, we will say this contest is over, even if process terms, it doesn't end until the sixteenth of July and doesn't start until the ninth of July. That's when the nominations begin. I think it's more likely that there will be people who will put their themselves forward and there will be a debate and Andy Berer will be under pressure to respond and engage. Don't forget Gordon Brown in two thousand seven Public Hustings with John McDonald and Michael Becher at the Institute of Education, where he debated the future with two guys who got nowhere near getting nominations, but they wanted their place in the sun. so You never Look I might be wrong, but my hunches They will be a a free contest Now, if you're Andy Burnham, I mean you are it's so evocative, isn't it? I was talking about this a few weeks ago sort of Game of Thrones. So the king in the North coming down. But these days you don't come on you know, with a big army, you come on the Pendellino on the west coast main line. and I'm recording this not far from Eouston Station where he'll get off and there'll be a circus there and he's going to swear in as an MP. That's an odd moment for Kistana, you know Prime minister wins by election in office and has to sit there and You know, watch this guy gets worn in. Still waiting in line Again That's time you will never get back. Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot com. Join them to save up to ninety percent of carrier rates from your computer or phone right now posted for certified mail, registered mail, and packages in seconds, thenen schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps. com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift. Tax is a pease, up up Granger knows, when you're a procurement manager for an office park You're not managing one building, you're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners Light's about to fail, filters ready to clog, Hack on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind Count on Granger for quality products, easy reordering, and twenty four seven support Call one eight hundred Ganger, clickranger. com or just stop by Granger. For the ones who get it done and What do you think he needs? I mean I will argue and again, I'll put something to you and you should challenge me All the process of talking to all the labour MPs is pretty important. and there are lot of labour MPs who have never met him. Right So he's not been an MP, even he's been, you know, a big figure in the kind of labor movement Um and yet he, you know, if he's going to take over in two or three weeks time Prime Mister. he needs to really get moving on or for get moving on Like what is his plan for government? Because The one thing we learned from the Starmer preremiership and he had years to plan for it Is it? went wrong really quickly and he never really recovered. You know, the winter fuel payment decision was something they hadn't planned to do was sort of more, you know, spoke to an absence of other ideas The scandal they didn't handle well around the, you know cash for suits and glasses and all that kind of stuff U so you know, he has got to do these things can't be manufactured overnight. He needs like a plan for government, a plan for running number ten. And I would argue a kind of well maybe come back to this You know, what is he actually going to say and do over the coming weeks? Be The British public are going going to form a view on him. They don't really have a view on him at the moment And they're going to form of you in the coming week I think I'm right in saying and this is my reading of what's been in the papers in the last few days, is that actually Andy wanted this contest sorry this process to go through until September. he wanted to take over before conference, but he really wanted this period to be able to prepare and plan And the way in which the timetables are working out, the way KSam has done it means he could become Prime Minister more quickly that he wanted rather than it being pushed further away. And I also think I mean, back in two thousand seven, Gordon Brown quite welcomed the idea that there was a process to get the nominations because it does give some legitimacy to you getting the office. And so I don't think Andy Berham will shy away from having that kind of public preree process up to the ninth of July while he's doing the planning on the side and you know and I think the chances of having done a lot of that so far probably quite Slim The u The other thing as you said is gives him a chance to meet lots and lots of people. He's got to be very careful that he doesn't sort of start conducting de facto his reshuffle before he's actually become Prime Minister because if that leaks out that is quite an the stabilizing. but Although I mean, it should be And there's a lot of work to do and he needs to get on and do it No, I mean, there the endless speculation about who's in the cabinet and particularly who takes the role of Chancellor Um And you know, I think it's highly unlikely that Rachel Reeves survives as Chancellor, though she may have a job in the government in some place Um, although if she anoun George, if she announces During this period in order not to be denied the job that she has decided stand down or to absent herself, that increases the pressure on Andy Burden to say something more quickly, which you probably won't welcome Yeah, although I'm given my own experience of this You know, I think it's actually more sensible if you're not going to be appointed as Chancellor for that to be made clear to you and then you can go on your own terms and you don't have to go through what I had do with Theresa May. So you know, I think I would have been certainly better for me and I would argue better for her anyway. So if You know, I think if it's going to be Andie Burnnerman, he's not going to appoint her. He should make that clear to her privately so that she can make her own decisions about when to make an announcement So there'd be a lot of speculation about personnel, there'd be a lot of speculation about team He doesn't, you know, though he's put together a team for the by election. You know, this is nothing like what you have in opposition where, you know, you were an advisor to Gordon Brown for years and me and David Cameron spent years in opposition thinking about things You know, he doesn't he's got some people we've talked about on previous podcasts who are kind of close aids of him and the chief of staff and so on. but nothing like the kind of team you need to put together for Downing Street, although I guess he probably has been doing Quite a lot of thinking about that,. Has he been interviewing people? Has he been You know, Lou Hag as we're told is very important. Josh Simmons, who was the guy who actually vacated the Makerfield C is now be close and working with him. My friend, Jim O'Neill. is, you know, providing him with ideas, but It's not yet a kind of downowning street team. And we know what again, what a mess Starmmer got into with Sue Greay and his various directors of communications It's also more complex compared to, for example, Jim Callahghan or Gordon Brown or Tresa May to do that from the back benches. I mean, I know the civil serervice or people on behalf of the civil serervice will already be reaching out to the burden team. But back in those times, I mean, it was possible for there to be you know, an extensive Gallen Brown conversation with numberum ten and within the Treasury and other departments about how the transition would occur. while he was still Chancellor even if it looks like Andy Berhab is not going to be challenged and he's going to become the Prime minister Much harder for that to be done with a bench, member of Parliament in that House of Commons. It's not impossible. Getting those personal decisions is right. Of course the other thing is important to say if the government still has to function And u The thing we know about the sixteenth of July date. is that comes before putative starmer EU summit, which was the week after. Now I would say if I was Kir Stara or Andy Berham or the European Union, I would not want to have summit in the third week of July because if Andy Burnhams just become the Pime Minister it's too quick. And you use the excuse that the leadership election might be going on until September. But you also have the NATO summit in the first week of July, which Kist Arm is going to have to go to. Does he go there naked? or does he go with an agreed defense investment plan Is that a plan which is the same as the one John Healey rejected Is that a plan that Andy Burnham signs up to? Does Andy Burnham say it's helpful for you to get that out of the way for me now I'm going to have to start some process of my own to then rel look at it over the next Six months, How does Kist Aarma go to the NAT summ having failed to agree the defefence investment plan and trying to show Britain leading on the international stage Ebody can't go with an agreed plan because Andy Burnham can't commit billions of pounds to defense spending, which has an implication for other department spending, for taxes, for you know, the fiscal rules until he's looking at all those pieces together. and we know it's an incredibly hard conundrum to solve because Kir Starmer could solve it and arguably RishiZunak didn't solve it either So But you could say that the plan, which is c on the table is less than what John Heley wanted, but at least of course sct Can you really, I mean, it might be easier for Andy Burnham to be bought some time have Kiss Ama say, Well, okay, well that's the one which we have agreed. And you know abbsent John Heley, we're going then come back to it in the autumn for round two Yes, although I'm not sure what status has been I don' think it has been put to the cabinet and formally adopted, has it? Because So Butn't this kind of, I mean? I think if you were looking we were talking about this on the main podcast, you let's come on to Starmer's legacy. I mean the real legacy is not about Kir Starmer, it's about these multiple prime ministers that Britain has been having. I mean, it's quite staggering compared to not just our lifetimes, but, you know All periods of British history unless you go back to the sort of, you know early very beginning of the nineteenth century and middle of the eighteenth century. I mean, you know, in other words, in the modern period of Britain's Parliamentary democracy. there has never been a situation like this where you have One prime minister after another every couple of years seeven prime ministers in a row. I mean, I was trying to I, Eanuel Macron as presresident of France has probably dealt with six different prime ministers. during that period. So in that in that kind of environment, I think it's a mistake to just think this is all about Kir Aahmer and his communication problems, or indeed, it's just a sort of Labour partarty problem forulatory bench is that I o Great and there'll be definitely some Shardenfroider on the Tory side, which is, huh, you thought Laby, you were so good and you made fun of us having all these leadership changes and the chaos and all that. and look, you're in the same mess But I think the question is why is Britain in this mess And and until someone comes up with a kind of convincing answer, a theory of why we're in this mess, which goes beyond Well, we've had Torory prrime mininisters, or we've had Kastma. They're not actually going to be able to come up with the answers and solutions that get us out of this political chaos Look, we were playing on Good morning Britain this morning, the clip from Kirst Aara as Liz Truss resigned back in twenty twenty two, saying we can't have any more of this chaos and we need a general election now. I can assure you that Andy Burnham and Kist Arma won't be making a similar claim about the labor chaos And I think you know, although we were talking there about defense and about the EU summit very cabinet minister ad minister. They've got decisions on their desk going to be told by the civil serervice, you must make this as a deadline. And they're thinking, I know, but is this something which I can sign up to knowing that Andy Burnham will or won't to. So there is a danger for Kist Armour in his legacy that this next few weeks is messy and chaotic. But then beyond that, he didn't really seek to answer your bigger question, whyy is this happening And and nor did he seek to answer the issue about his mistakes? And I think One of the frustrations when I think back over our conversations in the last two years If you think about the things which had gone wrong in the Starmmer Premiership. I think the Winter fuel allowance, where he did a U turn in the end or Peter Mandeleson where he ended up sucking him. or on welfare reform, which is now being revived. on every one of those big mistake But their handling of a mistake. They then spent months and months not making decisions and getting themselves into terrible the messy situations. I mean, I think governing in the last two years has just been done so orly and as a big part of the Starmer story. and it's easy to think of excuses about, I know, but maybe gooverning is not possible in this era. I'm not sure that think can do well or badly I totally agree with that. And I think you can look at both center right and center left governments around the world that are actually doing quite a lot. I mean, the Australian government, you know I don't think anyone says Pre Minister Hpernesi is like the most charismatic politician Australia has ever had and yet you know he's endured in office longer than most recent Australian Prime Ministers. Mark Carney is setting, you know things areike, you know with lots of interesting policy ideas that you just don't see coming out of this government here in Britain No, I think it is perfectly possible to govern, but there are big challenges which you have to be have to make some bold decisions depending where you come from on the ideological spectrum on Britain's growth prospects. I think you have to be very clear eyed about the politics that Brexit has left us and you know the In a sense, you know, the Tory party is saddled with being the Brexit partarty, even though most of its MP's votes remain and the low body You know, many of its voters voted Brexit and yet it's a sort of So, you know, they've no one no one has come forward. none of those string of Tory prime ministers towards the end nor kiss arma I have actually sort of nailed This is my analysis of what's gone wrong And here is myion my bold solutions which you are either with me or or not and I'm you know I'm going to stick to them get the country out of the hole. The great irony though, for Kir Dahmer and this is coming to the bigger question about legacy and how he will be looked back on, willill he be looked back on as the guy who could win an election over six years as Labour leader from Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election.