Brexit's impact on politics and future

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Shop Wayfair's Fth of July clearance now through july six at wayfare dot com d Pay fair, every style, every home. This is political currency Ed Bles and Gege Oospbne So we are live in our brand new studio here in Howxton a refit You you like the wallpaper Actually I think it might bs more little. they certainly used to have this stripey wallpaper back backack in the nineteen eighties where Asolutely no way Perersifonica and our podcast could afford Osbord Little. Are you serious? Well, they didn't ask for a discount, That's sure for. The speaker the House of Cons Dery Irvin could afford wallpaper of such expense but not political currencies No Do you know the other great wallpaper story in history is of course Napoleon who was killed by his wallpaper. Did you know that? Well only somebody who is He was the heir to a warpaper empire couldnt know about the Napoleon Warpaper story. Napoleon had a proper empire. I'm sadly, I'm not sure the Osborne littleittle Empire is quite the same But we should get on with our li look, you have to tell us how he died. so when he was imprisoned on Stt Helena by the British after losing at the Battle of Waterloo In a little house, it was such a damp island in the middle of the Atlantic. The green colouring in the wallpaper had been made with arsenic. That's how they got the green color back in those days But the damp conditions basically meant they ars sic infused the room and over a period of time he died Well, look, that just makes me slightly worried about the green stripes. in our studio. Did you enjoy the football? We are recording Thursday morning in the World Cup, England playing a match. beginning of the World Cup and did really well. I bet you know ult this is quite confusing. Yes, I watched it by myself at home and I loved it. You know, you're right, quite often those open games can be a bit boring t and you know, you're looking for a one mill win. I mean, that was cracking. I mean every segment of the game. off course it's now a you know, it's not really a game of two halves. it's a game of four quarters. It would be hydration breaks. I also this is rather sad. I also watched it home alone, a vet in Egypt. We should we should have got together. I know. we have had a viewing party. We could have we could have taken a photo with us awkwardly drinking half a lager. But then you know what I then did. I watched the game and then because it was in the Dallas Cowboys stadium, I then watched the first episode of series three of American Sweethearts, the story of the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders. I don't know if you've watched it, but it's utterly pelling Greg Whitelely television. It is so good. Be of the first two series series they're now really famous and therefore all these dancers from around the world want to join the auditions for the new season for the cheerleaders. I mean you've got to watch her. I don't think you'd be the first middle aged man his wife's away who turns on eleven o'clock at night. The story about the Dallas Cowboy cheerleaders lighthe Ser before they get to bed. But listen, we've got serious business to talk about, haven't we this week. The voters of Makerfield are voting today in the by election. and we actually we did discuss last week, whher the World Cup affects politics. So who knows, maybe the England win has a had some effect on how people feel in Makerfield today That is right, that is our first topic. People are voting now. I think there's a pretty widespread expectation Andy Burnham is going to win this by election and that therefore this is going to see a cascade of events over the coming days and weeks I have to say if Andy Burnham loses this by election, if Kir Stalmer can't win in Makerfield with Andy Burnham I think it makes the crisis deeper and may even make mean events happen faster. But look, If anybody wins this politics is going to be in chaos for weeks. Yeah, I think Nijer Farage Andy Berham to lose and I think Kiss Dara wants Andy Berham to lose privately. But anyway, we will know the result shortly and as you say, people are expecting Burnham to win. We're then going to talk about the backdrop to this unfolding UK leadership crisis, which is the global economy. and in particular the impact of the Iran deal, which Donald Trump has just signed with Iran. If you can call it a deal, we're going to get into the reeds on that. And what impact that is having on things like oil prices, inflation And how has the Federal Reserve reacted under its new leader, Kevin Worsh, who had the first monundetary policy meeting this week And then of course Tuesday marks the tenth anniversary of Bit and having turned down The Today program and News Night and Channel four newews, George Osborne, the architect of the Brexit referendum, or at least one of them is here to tell us Did it really make a difference? Was the last ten years inevitable? Is Brexit shaping the future of our economy and politics and positive way or a negative way and that's what we're going to talk about last. Yes. Oh, lucky me revisiting all of that. So the Makefield Bie election is underway, but obviously the debate about how Starmer is going to respond to the outcome. is already started and it's been started by Kst Ama himself because he's been at the G seven And he's been very active on the domestic policy front with things like social media ban We've had the resignation of not just the Defense secreary, which we discussed on our podcast last week, but also the Minister of the Armed Forces who Ed introduced to the world. I'd never heard of him before. Al Karnes on if you've been regularly listening to this podcast Let's just have a little medley of things that have been said over the last few days to frame the conversation that's about to kick off I can announce that the government will ban access to social media for all children under the age of sixteen. Just yes or no, no circumstances. I'm not going to walk away. You're not going to f. No circumstances you would step aside. I'm not walking away. go to f. It's the age of hard power and rising threat This is not the moment for calibration or incremental change This means bigigger politics. Bolder priorities harder choices and Britain's challenge now is the transformation and the rearmament of our armed forces. After Thursday's by election, when the results are in, I hope the Prime Minister will at that stage reflect on his own position and set out a timetable. I think that would be a better way forward for everyone. Lots of people have come to support the campaign because I think they recognize as a breath of fresh air possibly coming into. into labour thinking. So we'll see we'll see where it takes us. but I end the campaign feeling good So that was Kirst Aahmer announcing this big move on banning social media for under sixteen. It somethinghing which we'd been told he was against and he'd argued against for many months and to be fair was something originally proposed by the Conservatives and their education spokesperson, Laura Trott then he's telling Beth Rigby he's going to fight on Then you have John Heley's resignation statement in the House of Commons Then you got Wes Streeting saying he's getting ready to fire the starting gun and you got Andy Burnham talking about the future. That's all in the last week in British politics. And I think we could probably safely say Next week is going to be even more intense, right? That is right Look, Kist arm is undoubtedly wanting to own the space to lead the debates, know, the social media ban It now seems he's about to make an announcement about the Heathrow runway extension the defefence investment plan I think there is a debate happening in Westminster about what is going on. I mean, is this Kistarma? Kning that the writing is on the wall knowowing that he has to make Andy Burnham lead the demand for change and to say, you, I'm carrying on, but here is my legacy. Or is this kiss armour actually genuinely doubling down the fight and I have to say rather a lot of the signals coming out of Ten Downing Street. both in the media and more widely is that Kistama going to fight it out with Andy Berdam if there is a challenge in the next few days, But the tactics have changed. They'd be more subtle this week. Last week on the podcast We said that Kissedam was saying. person in his cabinet. who supported Andy Berder would have to resign. that was A nightmare would have just led to a whole series of resignations Beth Rigby interview as well as saying he was going to fight on. He said I want Andy Burnham into my cabinet The first priority has got to be winning the Merl election. what Kir Stam is doing is playing for time putting the onus on Andy Burndam to come in and challenge I think that Andy Burnham is not going to want to do something very fast, not in the first twenty four, forty eight hours. wantsama to own this For K Stamma to be setting out the timetable in a conciliatory way But I thought Andy Burnham's people saying yesterday And he would not accept a position in Kistara's cabinet it was the wrong call. that felt confrontational, that felt un generous, and collegient, much better for him to say, look, I'm really pleased Kiss Aarma wants me to be part of it. But let's have a conversation. over the weekend or on Monday about what is the best way forward for party, the government the country, that felt the wrong call Well, I wonder if that's the case. I mean W wouldn't it look completely sort of false and fake Fandy Burnham to say I'd take a job in his cabinet. I mean, he's explicitly coming into Parliament now challenge for the Labour leadership and to unseat. And I do think in passing, we should say, whate if we we're going to come on and talk about you know, Andy Burnhams a prospects, but it has been pretty gutsy of him to Give up the Manchester Morality. go for this by election. Everyone said it was going to be very tough to win And he's force a spirited campaign and you know, doesn't at the moment appear to have sort of put a foot wrong in the actual campaign itself So you know, I think we should know he is like gone for it Definitely. I think for Stalmer's point of view What else can he say? I mean, he can't say I'm not going offer Andy but do in my cabinet. You know And I think he is I've used this analogy before or this phrase that we used to use in opposition as conservatives, which is he's got he's gone for the kind of mister McCorur and John Travolta stratey, which is staying alive and hoping something's going to turn up Everything he's doing at the moment is Look Of course, you know, I'm going to fight on We have to wait for this Manchester Mor by election, which is going to be potentially pretty tricky for Andy Burnham if Labour loses it to reform which is quite possible despite what happens in Makerfields That will be quite a sour legacy for Burnham to arrive in Parliament So I think Star is just playing for time and seeing what's going to happen and how the cars are going to fall. and he knows there are other people out there like West Streeting you know, who are trying to put together the numbers and no doubt people like Angela Rain are having a good look at it. And what else can you do in his situation? I mean, The alternative, which we've discussed on this show, and I guess is still open to Starmer although He keeps kind of closing the door to it He's You know, I accept the verdict of the party is that they want to move on But I want to create an orderly process. I want more time for a proper debate about policy and issues And I will go in the autumn after the Labor conference And then he would Crit give himself some sort of breathing space But of course, he would be conceding that he had gone. He would be giving up the what most people would now regard as the slim chance that he could survive But I think you are right to say that Kmer has to have a line up to the by election result now. I said two weeks ago, he' have been better off owning the timetable in advance of the by election. He's not taken that strategy But seriously it's not really a strategy, is it because it's not a strategy to survive as Prime Minister. It's a strategy to have a more dignified exit. I'm not sure Is it? I mean, I mean you would only do that if you really thought I've got next to no chance of clinging up. But look, that is right, but that begs the question, is there a strategy where K Ammer can survive as Prime Minister. The idea after the by election which Andy Burnham is what There's going to be weeks and weeks and weeks in which this is all going to be held in suspended animation. for the Manchester Merill election to occur. I mean it is for Bd you've got West Streeting demanding a timetable from the clips we just saw. We've got Andy Berurn' people telling his supporters No, I don't want immediate resignations. Kia needs to have the time kid just looks like he is playing for time. I the frustration boils over and suddenly you into a Rishi Sunak Sgid Javid challenge to Boris Johnson moment. and at that point Kir Stalmer completely loses And this is the So that's when senior members of your cabinet start resigning on you and the whole thing becomes. People remember those few days with Boris Johnsway hiss whole cabinets is integrated. Yeah. And number ten have been briefing this week, Ed Billeiband is on resesignation Watch Shabana Mahud is on resignation watch. I mean, then they're saying fromrom number ten, this is the one hundred and ten meter hurdle strategy. We're putting hurdles in the way of Andy Burnham to try and make to trip him up in the coming weeks. And look Andy doesn't want think the worldld reccords just been set hundred it only takes about ten seconds to run that journal. So it's not much of a stratey if you' trying to delay the contest. I think Andy wants Kia after the by election to say Okay Let's have an orderly transition. Here's my timetable B the way I support you Andy and therefore I have a coronination That's what he wants. If it looks like on the one hand, Kirstarm is just playing for time or is up for the fight Or you have West Streeting saying, lookook, what's happened to Andy Burnham At least I'm willing to put up I think in that pressure on Andy Burnen becomes too great. So it goes to this question, what is Kistamo really up to? And if he thinks he can win this election, Do you think maybe it's worth rolling the dice. Do you think he can win I don't think he can win. Do you think there's eighty you know labour MPs who would support him in a leadership contest. I mean, he's already in the leadership contest and think as the leader. but I mean, has he got any support left? Look, there are definitely people in the cabinet and more widely who' thinking, why is this happening now This is very destabilizing The voters are going to be very angry. Can't this all just go away? They would rather Kir Stmer had more time. I'm not saying that they think he should fight the next election. However And they probably think I quite like my ministerial job. And I'm not sure I fancy my chances in a like new administration. That is right. But once you're into a situation where Kirstarmer and Andy Berham were on the ballot and potentially werere streeting as well all the, you know, I think West Streeting's chances are strengthened if Kistaramma is not standing rather than if Kistarma is standing Once that occurs people going to be actively campaigning and saying, no, we don't want Andy Burnham or West Streeting. We'd rather stick with what we know polling all says that doesn't work within labour members or more widely in the country and it's a huge risk for Kiristama because we were discussing legacy rather than look, as I said a couple of weeks ago, if he announces a timetable, he is acclaimed at conference He can celebrate his achievements. People sort of slightly you know put to one side the things which have gone wrong because it's all changing If you have a leadership contest, the absolute fight is the last two years What went right, what went wrong, Wh's to blame Kia Starmmer gets trashed, the first two years of the Labour government gets trashed, most of the cabinet gets trashed The Labour Party looks divided and iven. It's not a debate about how we address the country in the future. It's all about the here and now. Even if Kistarmmer wins, it's quite scorched earth, I think it's quite scorched Eth for Andy Burnham if he wins in that situation sccorched earth is Scorched Eeth is precisely the strategy you deploy when you've got no other option You literally burn everything as a way of surviving. It depends If Kir Starmer thinks his duty is to be Prime Minister and that overrides the future Labour Party, the unity of the government the election victory in two years time, then it might be worth a gamble And if the probability said he was going to win by ninety percent, nobody would challenge him But actually, if he's going to get challenged because people think he can't win the next election, he can't even win the leadership election and he's willing to scorch the earth for him in the small hope he might prevail I mean That is utterly legacy destroying let him The point is the cabinet wouldn't let him multipimately. They'd just resign on him. But Kir Starmer does not need any nominations to stand. No no, yeah. he can decide to do this anyway. That is what is. I mean he is very striking I guess he's saying you know, I'm going to fight on because If you say anything other than that, you've given up entirely. I think lots of people think actually There are people in his ear saying rightite on. And I think that there are you know different Ker starmers who it depends upon the most recent conversation. There are undoubtedly people saying to him through anti burnam You got the mandate. See them off. Yeah. And Kistara is angry And maybe he thinks throughre them I have to say If he has been well advised That is not the advice he should be listening to. The problem is he's at the G seven summit, and that is the worst place in my experience for prrime ministers to have any sort of self reflection because they're sitting there with Donald Trp French presresident thinkingn I can do this. I've learned so much in the last few years. I'm very experienced. This mayor from Manchester is not going to be hopeless if you' sitt in this chair. I mean Margaret Thatcher fam there's echoes isn't there? Mgaret Thatcher got the result of the leadership ballot while she was at some grand conference in Paris as marking the end of the Cold War So I can imagine sitting there in EVian when you're surrounded by EVian's not just where the water comes from, It's where the summer is. You know, I can imagine yeah, I thinking I'm quite enjoying being Pim Minister and I'mite good at it and so on. What about I tell you one thing, I mean, everyone has ignored the Tony Blair call of a couple of weeks ago to have a debate about policy before personality And I would say Andy Burnham, although he's been fighting the by election and saying some things about Makerfield We're not really clear He's got an answer. to the Wh's Labor's plan for government, which was the single biggest charge against kiss armour that he came into office and he didn't have a plan for government. I don't think anyone thinks I'm pretty clear what Ay Burnham's plan is Now maybe a by election is not the place you can unveil it and maybe we're going to hear a lot more coming week or so I think to be fair to Wes streeting, he has been trying to set out of plan. I think his tactic is in this leadership campaign you know, proxy leadership campaign U I'm going to be the policy rich person. I'm going to be setting out ideas. so that puts Burnham who doesn't want to be nailed down. into a hard position and you know, the critics of Burnham are always well, you know, it's a problem with Andy Burnham. He doesn't you know what does he actually believe in So What did you think of Wes Streeting's Economy you giveave a big speech on the economy this week, which we should declare. He sent to both of us because as we know He is a fan of this podcast I thought it was a good speech. and And we're not just saying that because he's no old subscriber. It was a good speech because he actually made an economic argument about what drives the growth process in the UK. How do you get growth? And he talked about the importance talking, you know, of getting energy costs down and he talked about the importance of investing in infrastructure and he talked about the regional growth imperative, but he also said You need competition. and entry, you need big companies to be challenged by the new idea, the new entrant, you should be doubling down on the side of the new idea and the new discovery and the new entrant against of the existing power and incumbency totally right, the opposite of what we've seen in the last two years where the government has retreated from competition policy. I've been saying to you've got to be about markets and dynamism and a chimeterian sense of traded destruction and and allowing markets to work, and that's the argument he made. And he also said on capital gains tax Wh he wants to align the capital gains tax and the income tax rates in a Lawsonian way, you need lower rates of capital gains tax for the entrepreneur and the person who is investing their own capital and new idea completely So I actually thought good and well worth making and exactly the kind of argument you need to hear in a leadership election. It was a bit Ebel'smark too Wasn't it was, I'm afraid? I'm not saying it's a bad thing necessarily, but it was exactly what you mean it was a return to the kind of new labor Gordon Brown economic policy of the late nineteen nineties, wasn't it? No you need a stable monetary framework, you need tight fiscal rules, aggressive competition policy It's a big, in my view, maybe a retreat is too strong a word. It's a big clarification of is capital gains tax plan which had been presented as capital gain tax. G Yes, it was going to be a wealth tax you know, where capital gainsax goes up to forty five percent And suddenly it' turned into, well, we might have you know, forty five percent. Capital gainst tax for passive capital gains. But if you're an entrepreneur, you're going to get something like Gordon Browns percent revolving rate And essentially, I think the argument, we discuss this when we talkking about the Tony Blair essay a couple of weeks ago. within within guardrails, let the private sector compete and be successful and then we can use the proceeds of that to invest in public services. It's not I thought it was interesting he called himself a social Democrat, not a socialist Because K St Aarmer calls himself a socialist, doesn't he I thought there was also theres there's a swipe at Andy Burnham when he says I don't think we've had forty years of some neoliberal you know wreckage. So I thought it was it I thought it was very, you know, I thought he was sort of puting himself to the new labor mask. And I mean the new labour mask. Blair Abrown, not Look, he consciously quotes Gordon Brown prudence for a purpose and you have to focus on the prudence, but also on the purpose. And it is about what the government has to do it has to intervene to make markets work in a long term way. So it's not free market or let's say fair. I have to say It is not only fully consistent with the kind of conversations I would have had in government with Andy Berham about how the economy works, but I also think As we discussed last week, the Manchester model and Manchesterism has always had an embrace of markets and a partnership with the private sector at its heart. So I don't think this needs to be divisive between Andy Berham and West Streeting or even across the cabinet. but it is a marked change from the rather more status and less market focus we've seen over the last two Well three years And it just contrasts with the lack of economic argument we've seen from here Starmer and Rachel Reeves over the last couple of years. It's been so frustrating. I think the other just thing just to say because that was one contribution this week streeting there's not been a lot of economic or policy from Andy Burndham this week. We did have the social media announcement from Kir Starma on Monday. Stephven Bush very powerful column this week in the Financial Times, where he said bothoth on defense and on social media I mean, these announcements, which Kirst Arma is using to secure his legacy They go to the heart of the Starmer problem on defense Kistana travels around the world saying. going to invest in defence because Britain must be a leader. But when it came to the actual decisions within government about The expenditure He didn't deliver, didn't put the money in place. onn the social media band This is the Kir Starmer who last year within government was telling everybody a social media ban won't work. It's just a gimmick. He was against it Now he's not only fully in favor of it without working out the details in that press conference on Monday, he never once mentioned the name Liz Kendall. who is the technology secretary who has done all the work to deliver this social media, but didn't mention Jess Phillips, who resigned because Kiiaarmer was enthusiastic about. If you want to understand what has gone wrong with the K Starmer preremiership, it's not just the flip flops, it's also He had the chance to be generous about the people who have delivered this policy for him, which by the way, he was skeptical about a year ago none of that and that is just a mistakes. politics is a team sport. Yeah, I thought on the legacy point, we should come on to can prrime mininisters shape their own legacy when they know the writings on the wall Of course this whole the legacy, the biggest legacy is hinted at in that conversation about defense, which is you can have the West Streeting you know, dynamic competitive economy and whatever Andy Bernam wants It's still this huge problem, which is how on earth are you going to fund all this? Because you've got these enormous defense pressures, taxes have already arisen And the most recent tax rises, most people now think were very damaging towards things like employment And, you know, there's not going to be a huge spur to growth anytime soon and the global outlook is poor. None of the labor candidates for this leadership election putive or otherwise are trying to solve the conundrum Starmer couldn't solve on public expenditure. They aren't, although If Andy Bird asked for my advice, I would say Dpress expectations Explain to people how hard it is going to be As you know, I've always been worried about the sort of outsider populism of Westminstiser is all wrong and I'll come in and I'll turn it round because actually the moment you're in there, you're no longer the Westminstter outsider. But the truth is on the economy and on tax and spending and on defence and welfare, this is going to be incredibly hard on the NHS too over the next couple of years. If I was Andy Burnham be spending more time explaining to people why it's going to be tough and how I'm going to approach it rather than kind of rather giving the impression that My arrival is, you know in itself a thing which solves a problem The risk is very similar to the one that Kiz Darma made There's a kind of history repeating itself. that you think that you yourself are the solution. You are the change Now the case of Starmars, I'm not the Tories. I'm this upright honest you know, non politician Burnham will be, you know, I'm not Starmer, I'm not from Westminster andborough, Manchester two weeks in suddenly, how are you going to fund this defense investment? And are you going to try and get the PLP to cut welfare in which case, which taxes you're going to put up or Are you going to risk, you know, unsettling the bond markets with somed change the fiscal rules. I mean, you know, these problems don't go away And if you just think you are the change, That's a mistake and you need the central plan for governing and you know Burnham to spell that out. What about these other, I mean, canan a prrime Minister on their way out? Most prime Misters everyt really get a chance to define that legacy in office because You know, they they lose an election like John Major over Gordon Brown and they don't do the sort of victory lap. Tony Blair did he had an almost year long victory lap when he agreed a time table on step down and Gord Brown He gave these sort of big speeches on the future of the media and future public services and so on Gear Aahmmer looks like he's doing some of these things. I mean History is not great When you look at the kind of success of I was looking up So Tsa May announced as her kind of party and gift to the nation, an office for tackling injustices. to monitor social inequalities. That sounds like the Ces hotline. It was well And then if you look out if you get the kind of report, what happened? It says The organization never became fully operational or convened because following Mayay's departure from office, it was disbanded and it's now in the offffice for equality and opportunity within the Cabinet offffice. And then Rishy Soonak announced thirty five million pounds investment for grassroots cricket in april twenty fourth as part of his sort of departure plan The current status, the thirty five million pound package did not materialize. instead, the government has shifted it to a one point five million pound pledge for an all weather dome in Lewton and Preston. That's the problem with Prime Minter. They, you know, then when when they're gone, they're gone and these sort of smaller bits of trying to secure a legacy Do they really survive your success What't you think though? I mean, We've discussed this before. John Major and Gordon Brown's historic legacy improved over time in retrospect as people look back. Um, and Be of chill cot, it became harder for her Tony Blair afterwards. But Tony Blair was still the guy who won the elections and put in place all those reforms the Northern Ireland agreement. By the way, I don't think anything. which happened in two thousand six seven is really remembered as part of Tony Blair's Legacy, they're going after the legacy If you take kiss Oma right now? What is the top line of his obituary going to be? I'm afraid it's going to be he won a historic majority but then made mistakes in government and did not deliver On the other hand If he doesn't have a massive bust up with Andy Berderm in the next few months, he can go to the Labour Party conference and do his final speech where he talks about independence for Palestine rising minimum wage, you won' need to mention the Winter Allowance or Peter Mandelon and he will get applause and he willll be remembered in a positive way and it might be over time peopleople start to appreciate some of the things he's done in a slightly rosier way. If there is a fight for the next three months But he's not going to get a Gordon Brown two thousand nine riff on his achievements. No, I mean, the Labour movement does love a heroic loser, doesn't it? I mean they wallow in, you know failure. So look I'm not sure whether Michael Foot or Joobey Corbyin are hugely celebrated for the manner of their defeat. No. And Gordon Brown's legacy is much more about what he did as Chancellor and then Prime Minister on on the economy the global financial crisis rather than what happened in the final months of his premiionship. I mean, Gordon Brown didn't spend the final few months of his time in number ten trying to secure his legacy. sides to win an election, which in the end he did' manage to do, although he did stop you getting majority H. I didn't feel like I'd lost when I was sitting there in number eleven. Well Anay as you as you looked across the table at Nick Cleg, Danny Alexander and a Davy. Yeah And Davy voted for all my budgets. never breathed. they were no complained. They were all more friendly to you than most of the Conservatives. That's for sure Look, I think history will say Kistama was one of a number of prime ministers who only served brief periods in office in the ten years after twenty sixteen And that speaks to what was happening in the global economy and the sort of geopolitical unrest and to the aftermath of Brexit. and that he'll be, you know, it'll be it'll be a kind of pub quiz test. Can you name all the prrime ministers between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty six I think you are right although David Cameron probably gets remembered more for losing the referendum and what happened afterwards than anything else. And for Kir Starmer This will be his frustration the thing which will have the biggest impact upon its historic legacy will be what happens at the next general election. In fact, you know, if Andy Burnham, wins the by election, becomes Prime Minister, wins the next general election, that is all good for Ker Starmer. But if Andy Burnham takes over and you still see, you know, a Nigel Frage Pmiership Si in the next general election That will be not just bad for Andy Berder, it will be bad for Kst Armmer and whole of this It's interesting is it look Ifanny Burnham loses this vlection and we don't know. I mean, I personally think that ups the pressure on Kierced starmer. No honestly ero even Andy Burnham can't w in Makerfield. Yeah. the idea that there'll be an even faster challenge to kill St sorry. if Burnham wins, he's the prime Mister potentially within weeks. If Burnham loses There may well be a leadership contest, but there's not a single other candidate who the Labour Parliamentary partarty might coaless around at this point. Could be E Milliband, could be Angela Ray Streeting I'm saying to you there was. There was a faster challenge Yeah, I'm not saying it's worse for Kistana. I mean, it's really I agree it's not a great situation, but it who lives to fight another day, potentially. But on the other hand Andy Burham loses his b election for Nigel Frge. But if Any Berham wins his by election, that the Greens The liber Democrats, the Tories will all say, yeah, but you know We weren't really involved. There will then be in the coming days, a real inquest into whether Nigel Farrage and Reform have lost momentum. whether in fact the restore threat to their right is actually really damaging them. for reform as well Mm And we're going to talk Anyway, we're going to turn to that global economic situation and The legacy of Brexit after this hing Still waiting in line? Again That's time you'll never get back. Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot comot Join them to save up to ninety percent off carrier rates from your computer or phone right now. Print postage for certified mail, registered mail, and packages in seconds. Then schedule a pickup right from your home or office For a limited time, go to stamps. com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift Taxes and fees apply. You want to get your backyards summer ready, but you don't want to break the bank? Wayfare gets it. Planning on dining alfresco or relaxing poolside Wayfair has everything you need to prep your space. Shop now and save up to seventy percent off during Wayfare's fourth of July clearance. sccore huge deals on outdoor furniture, area rugs, and more. We're talking thousands of products for every style and budget. Plus, sururprise Flash Deals july sixth. Don't wait. Shop Wayfare's Fth of July clearance now through july six at wayfare dot com d Pay fair, every style, every home. So welcome back In the last few days, much talk of a peace deal brokered between the U S and Iran suggest it may actually be publicly announced and signed today or tomorrow, although People are still quite cagey about the details and JD Vance in his commentary is rather given the impression that It's to be quite general and there's a lot of details still to be worked out in the coming sixty days and more. but This is Donald Trump celebrating. It's a very strong deal Nobody knows what it is, but it's very strong. and Most people seem to be very happy Who's really happy is the market Because the market's gone up thousands of points over the last four or five days since hearing about it And the straight is going to be opening. It's already partially opened. It's going to be opening up soon in full over the next day or two. And the market has gone wild and oil has come Stumbling down, oil, is it seventy threears seventy four dollars and it's getting to very close to where it was before The crisis. The difference is now we have Iran without a nuclear weapon. So We'll see how that all plays out. I think people are going to be very happy But there's nothing so smart as the market and the market loves it. beyond anything that I've actually seen That's Donald Trump at the G seven. Nothing so smart as the market. Andy Bernham, you're not listening to the president of the United States with all your attacks on, you know neeoliberalism and capitalism and all that What do we think first of all, the actual Iranian deal he says I mean, Trump says there No one's seen it, but everyone loves it, which is potentially you know contradiction in terms Maybe the success here is precisely that. it's It's so vague, the details which obviously all the politics are and All the you know, difficulties of the negotiation have all been parked. But everyone's happy because everyone wants this thing to end It allows everyone toort gently climb down and the straight to reopen and situation annte Bellum to resume I think this is a moment of great danger for Donald Trump and also for the world economy. precisely because of that generality and because as the details start to emerge and the issues still to resolve There is a bigig danger of a backlash within America against what is being agreed. I mean, you know It is not clear at all that anything substantive has been agreed on Iradian nuclear ichond There is going to be substantial easing of sanctions and money paid to Iran. Is Iran actually going to allow the strait to open properly? Are we sure they've given up their ambitions to have control or tolls in the strait? What happens if Israel decidees not to play ball and to ease off their fights with Hezbollah in Lebanon and what happens if Donald Trump and JD Vance under pressure politically with the midterms coming think actually The only way for us to take back control of what looks like a messy and politically unpopular situation is to say, theseese Iranians, we gave them a chance, they've not delivered. they can't be trusted And we're back into the conflict again, I think the chance of the conflict coming back is material And the uncertainties and the risks are grave So Donald Trump may be right that the markets are in a good mood today, but you know water to deploy under that bridge I mean, I think you could say if you were trying to be generous, you would say that what is different from situation before the conflict. I mean, the first is Well, the strait was open. Yes, the strait was open. it might reopen and there wasn't a war and we may not have a war and the Iranian regime is intact and probably as extreme or even more extreme than before partitular changes at the top the chang is they were assassinated. Yeah And do you think that the underlying Iranian regime is easier for the Americans to deal with them before I have absolutely idea, although I can't help but note that no one has actually seen the leader of Iran in any form. There's not even been a photo of him for well, since his appointment, a parent appointment. so something old is going on there I think you could I mean, you could say two things, couldn't you? A little bit paradoxical. I mean, I think the first is, you know, you'd be a brave Iranian regime genuinely try and push again for a nuclear weapon knowing potentially happened to you personally and to your country. And second, it's interesting this whole you know, American Reconstruction plan, which was not really on the table before I money for Iran. And you could imagine he's been much messier than Venezuela, but a kind of strange outcome where Iran sort of drifts more into the American orbit as American money flows. Wh who knows? It's a long way off. Isn't that a little bit like making Gaza into a sort of tourist resort and real estate opportunity? In Congress Yeah Are the Republicans really going to look at this and think That's a great deal, President. We're right behind you. We're really pleased you're ging all this money to Iran and we're really pleased you're using sanctions And actually the nuclear deal, well, compompared to what Obama legally negotiated before, It's an , I was a very you know, I was part of the government that part in negotiating that deal. The interesting thing, isn't it? I mean In some ways, the beginning of the war. which many people think was kind of very much agitated for by Benjamin Netanyahu. People spoke of the closeness of the US Israeli relationship And as the war ends people are talking about the very public falling out between Israel and the United States. and the fairly dismissive language that Donald Trump is using about the Israeli president or the sort of patronizing language So I think that is an interesting Now whether that's all, you know lost in the wash and one of the truths about the world at the moment is Israel's emerged as the kind of big, big military power in that region essentially unchallenged and that's not going to change. But I think that the Israeli U. S. relationship is one of the most fascinating issues at the moment in Geopolics, isn't it But there is a wider question for America in the Middle East, which is Do you think other Arab states and now more trusting and more willing to rely on the US then three, six months ago or less. And I think that you know it may be that the American Israeli relationship is somewhat fractured But I think the other Gulf states will think we're going to have to deal with this Iran now. and I'm not sure America has been a reliable ally And if you were Andy Burnham taking over his Prime mininister, you know, focus on the domestic agenda You would be wanting to use all the leverage you possibly can behind the scenes from number ten in the fone off is to try to keep this deal on track because if it fractures buried destabilizing economically So if you take a look at the wider economic picture Well, first in the UK, we have had some important economic data in the last week or so We should note, so inflation didn't go up in the way people expected. Curiously because food price inflation is down is completely contrary to the sort of political narrative around the cost of living But wage growth, private sector wage growth is slow, the slowest it's been for five years. The job market looks weaker than it's been. So the UK remains, I would not say in desperate trouble or anything like that, but just very flat and sluggish. And you've still got some of the sort of pent up inflation from what has happened in Iran to sort of fereed through the system and we'll see how the Bank of England responds to that. But we do know how the Federal Reserve has responded under its new chair, who we've talked about in this podcast for. and And I describeed going to see his swaring in at the White House Kevin Warsh. I thought it was a pretty strong Oening performance by Kevin I'm very party prettyf, so people should understand that because he's a good friend of mine. But if you think of the sort of central charge against him It's that this guy sucked up to Donald Trump get the job by promising to cut interest rates, which is what Donald Trump wants. For the outcome of the first FOMC, that's the Federal Op Markets Committee are equivalent as the NPC The first meeting that Kevin Wh shared at the FMC, know the markets drew the conclusion that the next move in American interest rates is potentially going to be up. down which is what people have been expecting certainly at the beginning of the Iran conflict. And he has done some things to make sure that people think that. So he is, for example removed the language about the expectations of future rate reductions. He's removed this think called forward guidance And there were these things that he particularly criticized, which are these sort of spot projections, which is Basically every member of this committee, they like in the UK, they're independent of each other They get they tell people where they think interest rates are going to be in the future And he hasn't managed to persuade his colleagues yet to not do that in the future. but he has no look he himself doesn't make a projection. Anyway, the long and short of it is The market thinks he's actually a bit more hawkish than we thought is a bit more anti inflation focused than we thought He's not taking the Trump White House line And as a result, rates may go up in the US I don't think this is a surprise to you or me or the markets, but it may be a bit of a surprise to Donald Trump. This is going to be rather I mean, I was going to say continuity J Powell is probably slightly more hawkish than J Powell, but then Kevin's reputation was always for being more hawkish when it came to the inflation risk and the idea that he was going to in advance of the data, on AI productivity. I mean I never thought that was what he was going to do. But as you say, the underlying conjuncture in America is an upward pressure and tightness undernderlying conjuncture here in Britain is a softening of the economy and therefore Bank of England probably I looking away from rate rises the opposite of what's going on in the Fed. We should just mention because the World Development repeport also came out this week. This is the World Bank's annual report on what's happening to the global economy. with a focus on emerging and developing economies and they say as a result of what's going on in the Middle East, inflation energy prices Gobal growth I'm going to be slower this year than before, the lowest rate since the COVID nineteen pandemic. And if you look at the level of per capita income across emerging developing countries, excluding China and India It's not expected. to return relative to the rich countries pre pandemic levels until twenty twenty eight. implying a decade, nearly a decade of lost income convergence. and so These events in the Middle East which have a very material effect on politics in America And in Britain, the interest rate decisions of the Fed and the Bank of England and the ECB or so pressing growth of living standards across the developing world and holding back They're a whole decade where developing countries have not made any ground on the rich countries it' kind of depressing Now talk about a lost decade. Next Tuesday is the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum Joy of Joys. and we are going to turn to that next Still waiting in line Again That's time you will never get back. Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot com. Join them to save up to ninety percent of carrier rates from your computer or phone right now Print posted for certified mail, registered mail, and packages in seconds. Then schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps d. com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift Tax a. You want to get your backyard summer ready, but you don't want to break the bank? Wayfare gets it. Plning on dining alfresco or relaxing poolside Wayfair has everything you need to prep your space. Shop now and save up to seventy percent off during Wayfare's Fourth of July clearance. sccore huge deals on outdoor furniture, area rugs, and more. We're talking thousands of products for every style and budget. Plus, surprise Flash deals July sixth. Don't wait. Shop Wayfare's Fourth of July clearance now through july sixth at wayfare dot com d Very fair every style, every home. Before I switched to Wealthfront, my APY was probably zero point one. Once I switched switching. withith the Wealthfront cash account, earn up to four point two percent APY on your cash. I can trust Wealthfront is taking care of me. Make your money earn more. Get started at wealthfront dot com clliients paid one thousand dollars for their testimonials cing a conflict interest. How comees sor. point percent API as of january thirteth twenty six is representative viable and earn on fund sw to program bank.er point five percent new clent boost for threeths up to one hundred fifty thousand dollars. Direct deposit one thousand dollars a month,und invest account for a point fivecent increase Cash account offered by Wealthfrontrokerage LLC member Fer IC dot So the World banks a lost decade. countries because of what's happening in the Middle East I remember doing an interview I think with the Sunday Times early in the twenty thousand ten s in which I said George Osbourorne was delivering us a lost decade because of the impact of his austerity measures on It was only l of living standards. It was a lost decade of you not being in office. But then it was your last decade. And you countries. And you're trying to divert attention from austerity by talking about Lost decade in the last ten years since the Brexit referendum vote, although I think it's a really interesting question. Has the Brexit referendum really made much difference to anything Very much. What do you think Well, we thought we'd frame the conversation like that rather than go back twenty sixteen and that dayay and all that and, you know I've taken part in BBC series that Looks back at the events of that time. We should just take a moment. I mean, you know, it was a scre, wasn't it Yeah, totally. But I was against having a referendum. I know. That's how was Michael Goe What was this guy coming up to What was the Labour Party up to not campaigning? Well, that is also true. Jeremy Corbyn It wasn't his finest, I mean look what wasn't his finest of the lack of finest hours over Yeah that was not one of them. I have to say can I ask you this one question If Remain had won Yes by two percentage points actually have made any difference at all? I don't think it would. So I think that is a very good question. Why don't we take that as the sort of organizing principle for this Discussion m so I'm going I'm going to start with the kind of policy. What it meant for what meant for our economy and our kind of place in the world. And I think it would have made a difference if we'd stayed in the EU. E if the vote had been narrowly won So the other way around fifty to, forty eight. we can come on to chaos that would have caused within the Conservative Party and so on But fundamentally we would have been in the EU. I mean that instead of outside it. so British prrime mininisters would have been turning up and they would have been attending t The European Council, British ministers, British officials, would have been shaping EU policy for the last ten years And I think that would have made a big difference both to our economy Obviously there are lots of estimates about what impact Brexit has had to the economy. But It's very hard to find any reputable economist who doesn't say the British economy is somewhere between three to six to seven percent smaller There's a percentage of GDP than it otherwise would have been And that slide hundredundreds of billions of pounds in terms of cumulative loss of national wealth for Britain And I think if you take the G seven summit The British Prime Mister, it's not just that he's Kied armor at the moment. It's a lonelier, less relevant figure because they're not representing one of the big EU players. And so yes There would have been all sorts of problems with the aftermath of the five thousand two hundred forty eight result the other way But fundamentally, Britain would have been better off. we would have been in the EU. and Britain would have had more influence of the world and Oh no, this is, you know to know exactly, but I think the EU wouldn't have necessarily takingen some of the decisions it's ten the last ten years because Britain would have been in the room. I hear you, although in this conversation, you have to decide what the counterfactual is the reality is Britain was in a conflicted state of angst about its relationship with Europe in the nineteen fifties and then in the early sixties when Wilson applied. then in the seventies when Labour had a referendum and then throughout the Cervative and labour governments. and it may be The separation was always going to happen. I fear that is true, although I do think that we could have tried harder to make the argument, but the reality is evenven if you hadd won in twenty sixteen Don't you think There would have been a leg for election Bor Johnson would have won it Most conservative members, most conservative voters had voted to leave the European Union Bos Johnson would been the prrimeinister. there would have been a general election in twenty nineteen with Bosis Johnson as ime M minister would have left the European Union. So is the counterfactual that we would have been in the European Union in the last ten years? or would it have only deferred the inevitable by one or two or three years? Well the truth is, I don't think there are many things that are completely inevitable in politics I mean, that's one of the reasons it's so endlessly fascinating people listen to this podcast. is because you just don't really know. You never know what's going to happen tomorrow And the scenario you set out is very plausible. I mean, there's no doubt I thought as the person who was most likely to be in that leadership contest after David Cameron steep down, which he had already said he was going to at some point in that Parliament I would have been one of the candidates and Boris Johnson would have been the other. And there would have been a very sort of angry Tory party. elements of the Tory partarty who felt You ended up voting for list trust. Well. You know they were even though she was a remainer because by that point, she was a Brexiteer. Yeah. And they were desperate for a Brexiteer. That'd have been even more desperate if you'd just won this reference Osborne betrayed us. We should have taken back control. Right. You would have heard all the rs about, you know, so called project fear Treasury's medium term economic projections turned out to be spot on. It' all the short term projections better than the short term projections But the But you know, in the scenario you lay out A Cameron stays on as Prime Minister for a period of potentially a couple of years. B Okay, Johnson Maywell comes in cabinet as part of a sort of reunion let's get the band back together again by Cameron. And then may be people would have seen Boris Johnson in office And you know, generally people were not as impressed by Boris Johnson in office than they were by Boris Johnson wanting to be in office. And you wouldn't have been a foreign Secretary, would you? No, I think you would have had a nice interesting domestic department like health to This is you know show how cakeism works in practice. This is the equivalent of me saying that Kiss Starmer should put Andy Berham in February and put him in charge of farming. Yeah. Anyway, I don't think, you know, there would have to have been another referendum. It's a bit like Scottish independence. you know, Okaykay, you could say Tin is on The nationalists are still in charge, the independence argument hasn't gone away, but Scotland is inside the United Kingdom. And we haven't had another referendum, and you just don't know whether there would have been the kind of alignment of the stars to allow for a second referendum. I think the other interesting question is notot so much like what if if we've v to remain. But what if we've had a kind of softer Brexit? It wasn't just the result, It was the attempt to deliver a hundred percent zero to a fifty two forty eight So the you know, Boris Johnson and that government went for a complete separation from the EU And, you know, the promise was always was going to open up the space to us Singapore on Thames, light regulation, get rid of the EU bureaucrats And instead what happened is, of course we got The civil serervice doubling in size There's way more British regulation Aually in quite a lot of sectors Britain is less competitive than the EU in terms of its domestic regulation and And that never never materials. Whereas I think you could have gone for a sort of softer Brexit. You could have reflected the result. which would have been like Okay we voted to leave, but we want to stay in things like the customs Union And that might have created more space actually. for us were more deregulatory approach than the one that we have seen because instead we've just had to create these parallel structures. And the people who've really suffered are the small and medium sized businesses who exports have been crushed Britain has become invending a much more service oriented economy. One of the great sort of Brexit arguments was we're going to revive the North, the left behind parts of the country, the manufacturing areas that have been, you know, left out because of the elite kind of success of London? Well If anything, that's been magnified by Brexit Yeah And I think that attempting to go for the complete result, the complete use the phrase we were using earlier in theogass sccorched Earth Victory has left the whole question hanging still in British politics, hence you' got leadership contenders in the Lab partarty like West Streeting saying, let's rejoin We are certainly not Singapore on Thames engaged in the global economy. As you say, there's been a sort of retreat certainly in the conservative years from the sort of global economic engagement And the only real thing which was done was these very small very minor trade deals which are Conservives and then Kist Arm and Rachel Reeves have trumpeted. I have no doubt economic impact has been negative, although If you look at growth in Britain pre twenty sixteen in the previous ten years after the financial crisis. and then you look at the performance of other European countries in the ten years since Brexit. I mean, it's not clear that being in the European Union pre twenty sixteen or being in the European Union, if you're not British and a Northern European country since twenty sixteen has been particularly good in terms of your growth performance. The thing I think was really interesting is when you actually rreack your brains and think Brexit actually done What are the things the government has done which they couldn't have done when we were in the European Union. What's on the other side of the ledger from leaving the customs Union and all of the bureaucracy, which comes as you said, particularly for small and medium sized companies? I mean the trade deals are small And actually the European Union has been negotiating some of these trade deals anyyway on VAT, we've done Nothing on state aids, hasas there really been any substantive shift, a bit of a change in farming, but it's all been actually quite continuity. The only big thing which has happened, which is markedly different which you could say is a consequence of clear consequence of Brexit. It' on migration. and that has been a fall in East European migration, European migration and a massive rise for about five years in migration alongside the small boats crisis and particularly from West Africa and the southern continent. that wasn't an inevitable consequence of Brexit. It was a choice which was made, but the opposite of what we were told the choice was going to be twenty sixteen, that actually may have been slightly better for the economy as well as difficult for the politics. But if you stand back and say Brexit actually done? I mean The Brexiters claimed the vaccine rollout during COVID, but I think that's nonsense and the idea that the EU would have blocked that is just bonkers completely. I mean, the immigration thing is, you know You could say that was sort of separate from the Brexit decision, but because that was just the Boris Johnson government. allowing in hundreds of thousands of people from around the world. But you know of course it kind of put a hole right in the middle of the Brexiteers campaign that they would take back control and you know essentially stop immigration. Nowre some Brexiters would say, Well, we did take back control because we decided to let these millions of people from West Africa and'ite to happen the same way if we'd still been part of the European Union and you' had sort of reciproal Dublin style agreem. Eactly You've been able to return people to France, you might have had more cooperation, you'd certainly have a less sour relationship with your European partners. And there's also, you know this is more of a reform argument I mean, you could argue culturally, it was easier for Britain to absorb people from Eastern Europe who were often quite temporary, you know, came here for ten years, returned to Poland the same religion as state religion in the UK. Christianity and the kind of cultural assimilation is going to be much harder with people from other continents and other religions And what about the politics? because is all drifting into the politics for this. Could you know, obviously Brexit was one of a number of examples of ism around the world, of which Trump is the outstanding example, but you you know you only have to look at French politics, German politics Italian politics and so on to see other examples of it Would reform be challenging or whatever it would have been called if we had voted to remain. wouldould reform be the kind of dominant party tenures on? What do we think All the underlying pressures for populism, anger about free movement sl immigration, stagnant living standards. I don't think we have any reason to think. those wouldn't have continued in the year after twenty sixteen in the way in which they were fueling the Brexit vote in the years before twenty sixteen differeiffnce which has happened and maybe this has just become more out into the open. In twenty sixteen, Bogy was Europe and and it was Europe doing these things and opening our borders and and harming U in the words of Nigel Frage And if we'd stayed in the European Union, he would have doubled down on the European argument For two or three years, the argument for reform was It's not having a proper Brexit, not having a hard Brexit. What's the reality of reform in the last three, four years It's moved on from Europe. I mean Europe is no longer the bogey The bogey now is peopleople who aren't white I mean, it's actually become be more open in the case of restore BMP style argument about white people and being damaged by ethnic minority population, but driven by restore, but Nigel Farge is following them. I mean, you know, talking about two tier policing in which white people are being overtly discriminated against. That was always an argument which happened under. the European argument twenty sixteen, up up to twenty nineteen. I mean, isn't it now more overt and very different and in some ways more dangerous, but that is a you know, a consequence of, um, The Brexit vote and the aftermath I mean, what did the things that happen after we lost the referendum and then I kicked out of the government. I was kicked out of alongside Michael Gove. So Micha Gve also was kicked out of the cabinet by Theereresa May And u So we used to spend a lot of time together and rebuilt our friendship Well one of the things you say to me is, Okay, George look, accept you're not going to be persuaded on the merits of Brexit. I think to be fair, Michael would always have said that there's an economic price to pay, but it's worth it for the turn of parliamentary sovereignty and so. I think he was more honest about that than manyany of the brake stairs. You know, he said, look, you've got to, you know, the good thing is that the Conservative Party has absorbed police pressures that were mounting in our system in a way that European Conservative parties have not and the Republicans have struggled with in the U.S And this was as you built up to the twenty nineteen election, the one that Boris Johnson wins, you know, the so called Brexit Party essentially stands down. And it looks like in twenty nineteen, the Conservative Party has absorbed UKIip Brexit reform forces. And And we're in a kind of more mainstream, at least on the right of politics at the time, of course, on the left, Gorbins in charge the load bike. That all looks utterly hopeless and deluded now And you know, if you look at one of the biggest losers of Brexit Politically, I think it is the consonservative partodyy because the Conservative party has no natural base now You know, it has lost it basically traded away the prosperous middle half of the country for what it thought of as the kind of working class Essex Council Eestate kind of thatcher vote, but was more actually people who felt utterly left behind by globalisation, a less aspirational part of the population And you know it became, you know, when I was a Chancellor, leading indicator of whether you were a conservative voter was that you had a college degree Now a leading indicator of whether you're a labour voter is that you have a college degree. and a leading indicator that you might support conservatives is you don't have a degree So we've traded away those areas and you look around all the seats around London in the kind of middle class home counties The Conservatives have lost dozens of them to labour MPs, Lberal Democrat MPs and so on And where do they go now? If you look at the people who voted leave, well quite a few people who voted leave have actually died because they were elderly But those who who are still alive overwhelmingly now support reform And the Tory Party gets, I saw you know, seven million of the leee voters support reform and only two million now support Tories. And then on the remain side you know, where you know the Cameran government was for remain. You look at it and, you know, the Tories are do get quite a lot of remain voters as happens, but nowhere near as many as labour and liberals and so on. And so where is the I still don't really know where the Tory party thinks at home is and doubling down on the Brexit rhetoric is in my view, making it even more unlikely that they're going to find kind of middle class, prosperous, aspirational support that used to be the bedrock of the Tory party. Look, it's an for the Conservative Party a massive challenge and it's made the debate on the right much, much last year now that Europe is not the bogy person, it's people of colour I think the other thing which is interesting ten years on. I' reform would challenge your characterisation, I should just say. I mean You know, they would say they'd draw support from ethnic minority communities. I I'm I think we, you know, should, you know, they wouldn't say it's just about ethnicity. Now Nigel you Nigel Fra. And I say that's the underlying kind of drumbeat. But Nigel Farraage has been following Reb it below and restore down the road of two tier policing is at discrimination against the white population And that's not the kind of thing being said in our politics fifty years ag, that That is not the language which Nigel Farge used in the twenty sixteen referendum it's moved. The other thing I was going to say is that and you mentioned the Labour leadership, putative candidates They've all backed off advocating, rejoining. The interesting thing is why is that you think? Well, no one, Labour, the liiberal Democrats, no leadership candidate feels able to make argument if you' rejoining in Brain. moment. And I think the reason is because if you look at the oststensible opinion polls, which have clearly shifted against Brexit If into that polling you say, but it will mean a return to free movement. contributions back into the EU budgets. potentially not getting our opt outs back on She in or joining the single currency at that point. S for re joining Some of those collapses. No I think it would be pretty hard to negotiate reentry into the EU. Although I think some Davy doesn't want to campaign on that position and' streeting or Andy Burnham. Some of them are false flags and I think you would get your opt out again on the single currency, for example. But I think it's an interesting thing that ten years on Brexit is not at all settled and the fact that Pe like Wes Streeting, but also Andy Berham implies An Kist Ama has tried to essentially rejoin or re establish closer economic ties with the EU shows that this is not at all sort of settled in British politics And I guess fundamentally, the nature of the EU is changing. and I think, you know was damaged itself by Britain no longer being part. but there is a more of a sort of multi tiered multi speed Europe. The big question for Europe is actually Ukrainian accession, is going to be a big issue in the next com few years. And you could imagine a government, either a sensible conservative government, or a labour government finding a more a closer economic relationship. I still think a huge missed opportunity of the Stalmer government was not to rejoin the customs Union on day one. It would be two years in in the customs Union. you want an answer on legacy. That would have been Kalma one of Kistalmer's big legacies whatever happens to his premiership. Well I'm going to end by taking us back to the West Streeting speech, which we talked about earlier in the show because he says in that speech talk about Britain being more connected in the long term I believe that logic leads us back to the European Union where our special relationship lie. So he is willing to make that argument but not on any this parliament timetable But Westreetaking's speech was about growth And whether it's West Streeting or Andy Burnham or Kemy Babnock unless you can find a way growth and rising living standards and a sense of optimism back into the cost of living challenged mainstream British population, then I'm afraid populism is going to continue to dominate and the Brexit saws are going to continue to Gs and poison. M. Anyway I think the whole thing was a huge mistake