World Cup Politics and International Relations

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Welcome to pololitical Crency with me and George Osborne This is actually just a quick update from George and I before we start our usual episode because We recorded our main episode this morning before John Heal' rather dramatic resignation this at lunchtime and we wanted to be able to respond to that and incorporate that into our Main show This was not justess any old cabinet resignation, it's devastating for the Government, John Heey, the defefense seecretary in his letter, not only about the security assessment that there could be an attack from Russia into Europe by twenty thirty But he says of the defense settlement. which he was given at the beginning of the week. He says, I am being forced to make decisions that would reduce the readiness of our forces and increase the risk to personnel on operations country less safe and on that basis he has resigned as the Deense Secretary. Now, George and I couldn't get into a room together at such short notice. George was off at the Oxfordshire Tech confference, which we talk about in the main episode, but We're gonna start with George's take and how he first found out about this news Well, I've just come back to my laptop here to to this update on the podcast because It's been at this Founder's forum event And a government minister came up and told me, A labour minister said well, you know, John Heales resigned And so I looked at my phone and I saw what had happened I don't think it alters the episode you're about to hear because it's all about the problems that Kirst Aarma faces Here are my immediate thoughts. First of all, it reinforces everything you're about to hear from Ed and me These really are kind of end of days for Kist ar. and any pretense, which I think you had at the beginning of the week that maybe he could you know, spin it out a bit longer his preremiership. And maybe he could contest Andy Burnham in a contest as you're about to hear We didn't think much of that and John Healley's resignation I think reinforces that because it's the You know, it shows the Prime Minister's authority is shattered. U you know, a very strong prrime Mister would find this a difficult day at the best of times but would make an argument You know, that the Ultimately economic security comes before defense security or You can't have strong defense without a strong economy and you know, it's a shame Thate secreory is gone but he'll be replaced and so on. That's so much harder for for Kst Aarmer to make that argument because ultimately people know that he doesn't really carry wait anymore his voice isn't really being heard U So it's a huge problem for Kir Starmer but really speaks to the Bms you already had. I'm quite surprised. Frankly, that the treasury allowed the situation to get to this point And we haven't talked that much about Rachel Reeves' position as Chancellor. Not many people are expecting her T remain as chance if there's a change of labour leader, I think that's very unlikely, but there's an open question of course what future role she might play in a government The treasury and the military have been arguing for hundreds of years. In fact, the treasury was created to fund the military originally a thousand years ago So these routes are not new and if you look at the kind of ups and downs of British history, you quite often get situations like that. But a smart chancellor, a smart treasury push things and then know when to hold back. And ultimately the job of the prrime Mister who's both first Lord of the Treasury And ultimately the person most responsible for national security Their job is often to overrule the treasury key moment. on defence spending happened a few times with David Cameron and me and I always understood that's like my job is to push as the Chancellor H job as the Prime Mister and weigh up the national interest. And I'm just surprised that Rachel Ree has allowed this situation to develop where it looks like she's been insensitive and inflexible. Maybe we just haven't heard her story A couple of final thoughts. I mean, first of all, John Heeley is not, you know, a regular Labor politician. He is a veteran. He is seen as a complete loyalist. to labour, not to a particular labour leader. He's been st Ammer as defense spokesperson for six years, but he, you know, he did serve in the shadow Cabinet with Jeremy Corbyn. He was a labour minister when I was a shadow Minister way back in the treasury. And you know, he's seen as labour through and through utterly loyal, not someone with a reputation for kind of being flighty or briefing against people. didnn't actually bef against the treasury much in the build upp to this resignation. So it's a real hammer blow. This is not a kind of regular member of the cabinet who you go Well, you know, they come and go In this case, John Healley is seen as a very, very reliable labor figure. So hugely, u kind of damaging as a result of that There'll be some people you know, politics is got it' cynics, let's put it that way. Pople thinks, well, maybe he's trying to book his place In the next cabinet But I think the problem he's got and this comes to a wider problem is that All the suggestions are that Andy Burnham And indeed, anyone else who might be labour leader, but as you'll hear in this podcast, we think it's very much going to be Andy Burnham was actually going to trim back on defence and the promises that Kirama had entered into. And there's no suggestion that Andy Burnham is going to build up the defense budget more than Kir Starman. since he's committed to the fiscal rules and he's spraying money around commitments in Makerfield. you know, I don't think there's any money for defense and as Ed has speculated of anything that's events commitments that KS Amy is already entered into might be reduced I don't think he's necessarily booking his place in the next Labour cabinet, John Heedy And my final observation is if a lots of the opposition spokespeople have been piling in from my old party, the Cervative Party and from Reform, Yes I'd just point out this is going to be your problem if your dreams come true and you're in government because fundamentally Britain's got an economy that's not growing fast enough huge pressure on public spending, additional requirements on defense Conservatives Quite rightly, identify savings but then go and spend it immediately on tax cuts. Reforms plans don't really add up So the defense problem is a problem for the country Right now it's a problem for Kirstara And it's a real, real blow to his premership. But as you'll hear in the podcast We had anticipated that anyway So that was George's take on the John Healley resignation. And I've got to say nothing in that that I disagree with George over. but let me add seven thoughts. First of all, John Healley's motivation and I should say he's a very old friend of mine. I've known John for thirty years, worked very closely with him before I was a member of Parliament. when I was at the Treasury, we've written many things together about regional growth, but know each other extremely well. It might be that John Healey is thinking to himself that there is a path for him to become the next labour leader. and That is notothing to be ashamed of to have that ambition. It might also be the case as George hints at that John may be thinking This strengthens his position if there is a change of Labour leader to be in the next cabinet, if that's led by Andy Burnham. But the John Healley I know, I don't think he's motivated by ambition and that way. I think to be the Defence Secretary was the most important thing which should have happened in his whole political and I I think he has been very frustrated for weeks and months about the failure of the government to come up with what he thought was a credible defence plan that he could sell. And on the basis of his letter And clely The frustration he's felt this week. I think that is the primary driver of his resignation. The fact we've already seen Al Keynes, the junior Defense minister who we've spoken of as a potential candidate himself for leadership election coming out and criticizing the Deense investment plan, which John has resigned over, that tells you that in the ministerial team in the MOD, more widely in the defence world cononcerns about this plan are very deep and So far, recording this at four o'clock, there's not yet been a new appointment to the cabinet going to be a difficult job to be the next defeense seecretary. And somebody who comes in and says I need to see all the detail from first principles That will delay this plan for weeks and weeks. And so I guess Kissara Rachel Reeves needs somebody who's going to agree with them. who will to B. Andy Burnham, this is also a dilemma. We talk in our main podcast about him hinting that he wanted to support billions of pound compensation for the waspie women who found out Paully changes to the pension age. he's now you turned on that over the course of the day, saying he's not talking about financial compensation I think he will know Theerm this ups pressure defence spending, whoever is Prim Minister in Britain in the next years But as George says, fundamentally for the Prime Mister and for the treasury. This is a disaster. it just cast doubt on the whole economic and security strategy of the government. And it is so frustrating. It is such a microcosm It is just one more example and in this case, a very big and significant one of this government's inability to look around corners to solve long term problems to see what's coming down the track. together a strategy which can deliver this. And we've talked about these issues a lot over the last two years. There are three different points which the government should acted differently to deal with these defence challenges and didn't. First of all, as we've said before When straight after the election in twenty twenty four, John Hley as Defense Scretary launched a defense review, a defense spending review chared by George Robertson At that point the Treasury should have insisted there was treasury economic and efficiency input through a person on that review, even if they didn't get that, they needed a parallel efficiency review to ask the question Is the Defense Department spending value for money at the forefront and to address some of the clearly big problems in recent years and decades in the way in which defense spending has been managed If that had been put in place then the treasury would have been all over the numbers, you wouldn't have had changes in the defence spending assumptions in the last year, which have caused huge problems I think for the government, the fact that John Heeeley's letter doesn't even refer to efficiency savings. I mean, I think that's a mistake, Bud Joon. I think he should have stressed that but it shows you he's not been under pressure from the treasury in the last two years on the efficiency of spending. Secondly over a year ago When Donald Trump became president was casting doubt on whether or not NATO was working whether America was a reliable ally to Europe in NATO. att that time there was an opportunity. It was an opportunity seized by the new German Chancellor Mertz, who said, I'm going to change my fiscal rules to increase defence spending on this podcast urged The Chancellor to look at that and kiss arma, notot only did they not try to find an international way to focus on increasing defence spending, to look at whether or not within or outside the fiscal rules, something could be done They set their face Ast that. Rachel Ree said it would be the wrong thing to do. She went out of her way to say that Last autumn in the build up to the budget And then of course the spending review. It was clear last summer. more money was needed And how can we be in a position where a year on The defefense seecretary is resigning because those issues still haven't been addressed. I mean Why didn't Kirst Starmer with Rachel Reeves and John Heeley in the room a year ago Sow our plan or six months ago, how can it end up where We are. It is It's so frustrating to see this happening and so damaging and you know see the treasury. saying this afternoon Prom is that John Healley just wants to cut health and education spending in order to spend on defence. I mean, That's not the John Heley I know and That just to me smacks of a failure to find out a way to finance this plan over the last three years. Now, As George says, it leaves the government damaged It leaves the Prime Minister of the Chancellor further weakened As George says, I think the analysis in our podcast, which we recorded earlier, stands up anything I think it puts more pressure on Andy Burnham to spend on defence and and it might mean that the chance of a straightforward combination juced. if Andy Berdam is to take over and that there is a leadership challenge because I think there willll be a huge temptation, whether it's John Heley or Al Kearns or somebody else to say from the security wing of labour slightly to the centre right of labour compared to the soft left to say We must make sure that the defense and security argument is properly heard in this leadership election, even if it's somebody who doesn't end up winning but ensures the debate happens, puts pressure on Andy Berden and her leadership contest, that may be a position that West Streeting takes up. if they can get the numbers at the margin, I think it makes it more likely They'll get the numbers. It makes it more likely there will be a contest and whoever is the Prime Mister in the UK in the coming six months They will have to now address The defense spending issue in a way that has not been addressed in the last years and months and has led to John Healley's resignation today Now we're going to be discussing this in much more detail in the coming weeks. We'll have our newsletter out on Monday and we'll reflect further on the fallout from the Healy resignation bound to be more developments over the weekend. in the meantime He is main episode that we recorded earlier today This is political currency with Ed Balls and George Osborne So we are recording remote today, George Osborne on his travels again. although I think this time in the UK, the background as I look at it, I mean it's quite I don't know, it's quite shishy. I think that the quite high standards for the interior design, although as we know, it has to be quite a tight shot because if the camera slightly turns to the right, You see very loose, almost Tracy Emmin Slept in bed, cigarettes It's who knows what? I mean So we've had to stay tight on George No, you see a very neat little bed. that I've attempted to make up here at Soho Farmhouse That's quite It is quite shishy. whichich is where Founders forum is happening, which is kind of annual gathering of lots of tech people in the UK A actuallyually, it's a pretty impressive event. together by a guy called Brent Hobman. You know, if you're a bit down on the UK and we're going to come on to all the problems Britain faces in this podcast Aually you come here and it's you know, you feel there is actually quite a lot of good things happening as well and there's a bit of a and energy in the tech sector here. so I'm very pleased to be here. Can you just tilt your cera so we can have a quick look at the bed Well there they go. Look at that. Tracy Ebond could be it could be the Royal Academy on display I did not But listen, what about talking about like Sii festivals in swwanky parts of the country Didn't you go to the Adam Smith Festival or the anniversary of Adam Smith's birth or death In Kirkodi, which the last time anyone heard about Kekodi was when the local MP became the prrime mininister Gordon Brown It was a great event My third time going there, organised by Gordon Brown hundred and fifty years of Adam Smith. The the people of Cooti come out. there Sorry, how can they be the third time that we've celebrated the two hundred and fifteth anniversary Adam Smith? No it's the third time I've been to the festival the festival was every year. but this was two hundred fifty years. So I think the last time I went to it was about two hundred thirty nine, but that wasn't put in lights. It wasn't seem to be such a significant moment We had a full room hundred in the overspill As Stephanie Flanders and I We first of all talked to some Nobel Prize winners in economics which were done really well. Get you in Pici. Chris Piserides and Mike Spence. and then we spoke for an hour to Andrew Bailey. veryery kind of in some ways, our podcast was good preparation because he is a very serious practicing Catholic and having discussed on EMQs P encyclical on AI, I was then able to put those issues to Andrew Bailey. It was really good, but the highlight was this, you wouldn't believe this After we finished And we're thinking it's the end of the evening thirty. to thirteen year old girls, some boys from the local town come on. to the stage to perform a rap In full dance mode called the Adam Smith Rrap Adam Smith, the man, the Myth Adam Smith, the man the Adam Smith, he came from Kakodi, but his wealth of Nations wasn't a folly on it went. I mean it was like, you know, unbelievable. And can I ask does Gordon preside over this as the sort of emperor? I kept pushing Gordon up to join the rap But he felt as though he didn't have the moves. And I obviously do have the moves, but thought I wouldn't get in the way. so I stood on the side with Stephanie and Andrew Bailey. Andrew Bay JI rating Hm the wrap. So would been more it would have been more convincing if Gordon had said back in the day he had an Adam Smith wrap on his iPod than the Arctic monkeys. Well, it would have been more convincing. For our kitchen cabinet members, we will put some pictures of the wrapping in our newsletter, which comes out on Monday with our cultural and update politics. Let's get on with the podcast. We're going to start by looking forward to Andy Burnham's weekend because we've now got seven days till the by election, and obviously in a week's time Lots of conversation like what happens next immediately in politics. but there's a sort of wider question for Andy Burnham this weekend, which is u After his interviews pain is underway. it's all about the ground game now What should Andy Burden be spending the next seven days doing? And I think we're going to talk about Th things he should be thinking hard about now to make sure he's ready. if he becomes Prime Minister, You know, what's his timetable transition? What's his hundred day plan How does he sw out staffing in Downing Street, most importantly What is his economic plan and you know, as ever, you've got a lot of advice to give him. on the economy. Yeah well do you, I think? And I would say Kir Stahmer would have done well to take our advice over the last couple of years We are then going to talk about Manchesterism So it's a bit of a mouth for that, but that is the word that Andy Burnham has himself used. He of course, is the mayor of Manchester, though it may not be for much longer. And he has said that there's a special economic recipe that has helped Manchester be one of the fastest growing cities in Western Europe. and it's going to be applied to the rest of the UK if he becomes Prime Minister, or at least that's what he says So we're going to ask what is Manchesterism? What does it actually mean? What is it? What isn't it Could it be applied nationally? And finally on the day the World Cup hosted by America, Canada, and Mexico. kicks off. We're going to look at the politics of Wld Cup twenty twenty six in Trump's America interesting economic research to share on u past W cups have driven nationalist sentiment who tends to get the red and the yellow cards and how it's related to your political background So we're going to discuss World Cup third. We should declare an interest as well, shouldn't we? because we are both members of the lobby league that Paul W or Paul War's son has put together. So we should disclose that we do have an interest in who wins the World Cup So what we're not going to do is disclose who we are putting in our list of ten to win because you know of course It we want England to win. of course we want England to win Let us start though with Andy Burnham's weekend. I think A week or so ago, we were discussing Whether Andy Burnham would like a long transition. you know, would do you like to have afterfter the by election If there's a coronation because nobody stands against him some weeks, maybe even months to get himself ready before Kirst Starma stands down and I made that argument that he wouldn't be ready. after the by election. He needed the time, you said nonsense. just get on with it as fast as possible West streeting can't get the numbers, well, you know could be the Prime Minister by the end of July. but feel as secure. path, whether it's short or long as it did a week or so ago because Kistam was fighting back. Yes. I mean, I still hold to my judgment that if he wins the Makerfield by election. And of course that's the big if. I mean, all bets are off in terms of the future of the Labour leadership if Andy Burnham loses the Makefield by election and therefore can't be a candidate. But if he wins the Makeerfield by election, I still think there's going to be a sort of collapse of the cards, collapse of the House of Cards, the sort of pretense that be a contest or the pretense that Kiistara can hang on I think willll be exposed because there' willll be such momentum behind Burnham arriving in Parliament. All that said, you know, politics is, of course very unpredictable And there are four hundred odd labour MPs who have got to make decisions. What is interesting is that Kirst Darma is clearly trying to mount some kind of rear guard action because it's been pretty widely reported in the last few days. that he has been meeting with the junior ministers in batches. And this is a classic thing. The junior ministers you often aren't obviously as prominent in our media as the cabinet ministers, but the junior ministers are your kind of rank and file. what they used to call the payroll. for a government. are they are the people who are the are loyal to the government. because they've got a job. they don't want to lose their job. It's risky for them. They've got something to lose rather than nothing to lose like a b venture And normally a Prime Mister can count on them. And normally when a prrime Mister is in trouble They turn to the the middle ranks. These are the sort of captains and second lieutenants of your army, if you were rather than your kind of generals and colonels. I don't know what you think E. I mean, is it an ab it strikes me as a sort of hopeless cause, but I might be wrong about this mean, it seems to me hopeless to believe that Kestama in the situation in which Bernam wins the by election. will fight off a Burnham challenge. Now, maybe Kiston was just thinking If hold on, we might lose the Makerfield by election which case all bets are off because they might prefer me to Angela Rayna, Wes Streeting or A and another. In a way you can answer that question by Just thinking for a minute, Andy Birdham loses action next Thursday. If this is the Burnham challenge Andy Burnden loses the bie election Kissed Alma Challenge, Gordon He's in the clear I don't think anybody thinks that because they think they're independent of Andy Burndham The local eion results were dire. The Mandelon files exposed the sort of Terrible state of the government in the last two years. And if even Andy Burnham can't win in make a field, well I think the crisis is deeper. So the opinion polls to the extent they've been done of partarty members, say Andy Bernen wins comfortably against Kiir Starmer. The starma strategy at the moment looks very high risk because I said last week. If he announced a timetable, quite a long time table, He could spend three, four, even five months securing his legacy Whereas if he goes for conflict with Andy Burnham and losers That is the absolute destruction of his legacy However, on Sunday on Sky David Lammy, the deputy Prime Minister, Starmmerbaker, says if there is a leadership contest I will be kissed ona. why did he say that? Why does David say that? Well, I think he was probably I think he probably said that because he was asked to say that by Kir Aarm and Number ten, but not everyone in the cabinet is doing what Number ten is asking them to do at the moment. No, But I think David Lamby, as Dputy Prime Minister thinks he has a duty as a deputy prime Mister to be loyal to the Prime minister. He also was a backer Kir Starmer from, you know, the beginning So you know, he's not he's not a Johnny lately when it comes to Kir Staharmer. As you said, you then have these ministerial meetings in which Kir Starmer is saying I will fight I am going to take you on He's not going to push me out Look the interesting question, I think was which Judor ministers got invited, and which didn't. I think there's quite lot of Judy ministers wondering why didn't I get the call to this meeting onn Good morning Britain this week They know they're not in the Praetorian Gard, which When the emperor is about to be assassinated, it is a good thing not to be in. We we had Juckie Smith on Good morning Brittle on Monday, and a Turly on Wednesday, the Labour chair. Both of them, I asked whether they would follow David Laney's lead and say kiss armor. is standing in the leech election against Andy. Are you supporting the Prime Minister? Both of them extremely sensibly chose not to answer that question. But then the Fancial Times reported yesterday too that Kiss Starmer telling people If you won't declare publicly for me, then you can leave my cabinet and leave my government. Now I put that to and attorney Immediately Downing Street was on the phone to Goodning Britain to say Ked Armour didn't say that into the ministers in the meetings, but you know, it's clearly being said because it was in the FT it's in the FT again today and in the Guardian. But if Kistama chooses kind of fight when Andy Burnham is clearly going to get at least nominations. I mean blows the government wide open And if he wins, well maybe it's a victory, but if he loses What has he left behind him? mean Yeah, it's a bit reminiscent, isn't it? of Boris Johnson, trying to cling on and then swathes of ministers resigning on him day after day. So I think you can't say, if you don't publicly support me against Burnham then you've got to leave the government, then like most of the government will leave and That's the problem with prrime mininisters who are in a very weak position If they try to be tough, their bluff can be called. U what about the kind of what about the interests of the Labour partarty and arguably the interests of the country because You know, we don't want to repeat of the last two years where comes in who doesn't appear to given enough thought to how they're going to do the job U and to be fair to Andy Burnham, he's got he's fighting a by election every, you know, all of his hours at the moment are spent walking down the streets of Makerfield Would it be a good thing if there was a gap You know, from what I understand, people like Tony Blair and this is kind of reflected in his essay that he published say Well, we need some time to know what these people's policies are before we decide. Let's not make it a personality contest, that was he wrote in that essay. And that can't happen unless there's some gap and there's also the small matter of the Manchester Merl B election, which will be triggered because Andy Bernam will no longer be the Mor and if Labour loses that, that could be quite a big blow to the kind of burnham momentum So there are various reasons why you might want a gap and I don't think there are direct parallels because you know, obviously this is in the middle of a government rather than opposition. You know, Michael Howard did create a space for the Tory party to have a proper discussion after it had lost you know, for the third time an election in two thousand five kind of future wanted. The much more direct parallel is Tony Blair announcing in september two thousand six that he will cease being Prime Minister but not until the following July and Tony Blair himself period to foromment a policy debate and to bind Gordon Brown into continuity in terms of policy. And that's absolutely what K Starmer could do as well. What is in the interests of the country? lookook and the Labour Party. There's one argument which says you want this to be as fast and smooth and seamless as possible. and therefore, what you want is a deal between Kahmer and Andy Burnham on a fast timetable. Nobody else will challenge Andy Burnham because as you said, he's got the momentum, he just becomes the Prime Minister. There are lots of people who think There are lots of people who think Any of this is not in the interests of the Labour Party and the goovernment because we shouldn't be ditching a Prime Mister after two years. and the last thing we want is a contest But there is a counter argument, which as you said, is that you need to have the debate. Why is Kir Starmer and his Numbert ten operations so wound up against Andy Burnham this week compared to one or two weeks ago. The opinion polls haven't improved for here at Starmer. I think it's partly Andy Ber has been so Car But he's Stitching everybody is a whole new approach The end of Starmarism, the end of labour and government, you know, the end of forty years of neoliberalism. So everybody in Downing Street at the moment thinks, well, they're all out of a job So they might as well fight hard if they can to defend their position. I'm not sure that's wise, I think if I was Andy I might be reaching out to some of the people in in number ten. But the second thing which goes to your point, We saw last week on Newsnight, Andy getting into a bit of trouble talk Derbet about What are the fiscal rules He's obviously had to make some shifts on Europe He's obviously made some shifts on house building. today seemingly opened up the possibility of a ten billion pound plus compensation for waspie women which had been taken off the agenda by the government. These are all sort of messy policy issues and I wonder whether Kirst Aarma and his people aren't thinking You know? If you have this big debate Not only would it be good for in the end governing because we'd sort out some of the confusions But actually maybe kissed armor prevail against Andy Burnham in that kind of serious policy debate now I have like you crave about that, but that is clearly what they are king that the policy debate would not only be good for the party and the country, might even be good for Kst A arma. Yeah, but the complaint about the Kirstama preremership is it has not had a policy rich. plan That is precisely the charge against him that he hasn't really had a plan for government and he hasn't been able to stick to a policy course. So ' pretty skeptical about that. What do we think Andy Burnham is doing by means of preparation? or rather, what do we think he should be doing in terms of preparation. And maybe we should should we just play a clip because take you back down memory lane. This is what prrime ministers have said when they get into office not at a general election, but through an internal party fight. This is this is a whole set of clips that will jog your memories. Leveling up and not leveling down giving people without education, the chance of education, giving people without a house, the chance of a house, giving people in old age the chance of security. That's leveling up. That's the way I regard it. particular, I want to see us build a country that is at ease with itself. a country that is confident and a country that is prepared and willing to make the changes necessary to provide a better quality of life. for all assets If we can fulfill the potential and realize the talents of all our people. Absolutely sure Britain can be the great global success story of this century. It means we believe in a union just between the nations of the United Kingdom but between all of our citizens Every one of us Whoever we are and wherever we're from. As we're in a store Trust in our democracy And we're going to fulfill the repeated promises of Parliament to the people and come out of the EU on october thirty first, no ifs or buts That was the very opening statements as they became Prime Minister in government from Jim Callanghan, John Major, Gordon Brown Teresa May Boris Johnon. I'm afraid we decided to List trust us and reallyich is soon too recent for us to draw deep lessons from Didn't think it was interesting Jim Callahghan used that language about leveveling up? I didn't know that. I thought that was a more recent sort of political phrase. Anyway, it was good to hear. Well, see in the case of Jim Callahghan, education was his passion Of course, he ended up in continuity handling the economic cris which deepened very early on in his preremiership through the IMF John Major. handed on a plate to him change for Margaret Thatcher, because of course poll tax had become The symbol of the end of her premiership and that was something that he immediately was able to ditch. Gordon Brown, I think was pressured to be differentiffiate from Tony Blair hugely pressured from Tony Blair not to differentiate. Gordon Brown's ing cal though. I mean, I think the most memorable was going to ninety days in terms of the ability to detain terrorist subjects without charge, which was very continuity, very controversial. In the case of Tresa May When she was in charge of Rain, but it wasn't at all clear what her differentiation was from David Cameron because she was a remainer. Boris Johson handed it on a plate to him because he was all about getting Brexit done. Isn't the answer that you have to decide that first of all, your first hundred days, you've got to have a whole slep P policy announcements deliver loads to the lobby. they have to go to your passion to show who you really are as a leader And they have to show why you are different If you take Kir Stalmer in the early period of him becoming Prime Minister. What did he do which was differentiating from the Tories other than I saying I wasn't a Tory. There was very little. He didn't use helicopters, but kind of glasses and suits and all of that felt like continuity, he didn't go out to define his purpose early on. If you Andy Burnham to find a way to do this very differently from as you say the lack of vision in the early period from Kistama Isn't it? I think I accept all of that And you know what an Andy Burnham premier ship has to demonstrate early on is there's a clear sense of purpose, there's a clear plan. and that he can run the ship well because what the Mandelson files have revealed, and of course what we saw from the endless changes of personnel and chiefs of staff and directors of commommunications and cabinet secretaries coming and going was that there was no like no grip at the center and that became pretty painful within a couple of months of the Starmmer Premiership So that's all true, but I think the risk is And I certainly saw it in the Katori years. When you become the prrime minister, you're so in yourself confident that you are different from your predecessor we didn't clip. Rishy Sounak, But Rishy Soonak comes in. He's so obviously not Liz Truss. In fact, he's just argued about why Liz Truss's economic policies are mad in the leadership contest but lost and he's very different for Boris Johnson because he's you know, resigned from Boris Johnson's government as Chancell Excher. So he doesn't need to, in his mind, explain why he's different because he's confident that he's different As a result, that's a kind of big mistake And I think Primisters who take over mid tm need to explain to the country why this has happened. they need to have an explanation for why the previous person who They were loyally supporting in public, you know, a few months earlier. has left and you can't just sort of pretend, oh, it's a sort of accident we're not going to talk about. You have to come up with a coherent explanation You know, although it pains me to say it a bit, the most successful of all of those transitions was Boris Johnson because he had a very clear explanation of what had gone wrong, that Brexit had not been delivered, and that he was going to deliver it And then sure enough he did winning the general election and so on, but he then called That for me is the kind of Burnham challenge. What he keeps, you know, he has not defined in this bialection change he says Labour needs to bring. It's a bit we're going to come on to some of the economic aspects of it. but He hasn't really got kind of at the moment, a compelling story for the country about labour. and what went wrong. And that is a big challenge because obviously the country might conclude, well, if this has gone wrong for labour, let's Let's choose another party. he also has to convince people to stick with labour And he's going to do this in a very tight fiscal situation. So look, you had Rachel Reeves this week opening up the possibility of another tax rise although that would be for defense and you know that may well be the right thing to do and Andy Burnham can't resile from that, but that's not going to define Burnham in office As I mentioned the Wpie womomen, I don't think ten billion pounds for the Wpby womomen is the thing he'll want to define his premiership on and he's not got the money for that anyway, very hard for him to reopen ax pledges halfway through a parliament when everybody else in Parliament was elected on a manifesto which committed them to these pledges. We talked about social care last week. he's passionate about that But it's a long road to get to a solution Europe. I'm not sure Europe hass ever been an Andy Burnham passion. He could you know, do something quick on cost of living He could, for example, abolish VAT on domestic fuel because he can do that now we're outside the European Union. But you know, is that too small I mean, I certainly would not advise not trying to stand against the sort of wind of price rises because that's exactly where Kist Ama has come across and rishue so next If you may cost a living your issue It's not within your control or entirely within your control because of course, there's inflation and global forces like the war in the Middle East So that is that is a mistake. Europe is a big, but you can see why then it pushes back to personality because actually that's the one thing that He can control and doesn't cost him money. but you know he can't spend every day for the first hundred days saying this is my burning priority, different priority every day, not spend any money. N not really have a huge amount of substance in any of them. and people say at the end of it, well, what was that then? What about quickly on personnel and this question of an early election, which maybe we'll come back to. but on personnel, so the kind of key people around him Obviously Lucy Powell, the deputy lead of the late buddies is a Manchester MP has you know very clearly in the Burnham camp Lou Hagig is also, isn't she a kind of behind the scenes helping him Josh Simons, the MP who resigned to create the They can see I herear is pretty involved in policy making and these are very smart guy and still somewhat of surprised that he kind of sacrificed his own parliamentary career, but may mean that he emerges as a kind of key advisor. And then there are some long term People out there, there's to long term members of his staff, basically. like his chief of staff What do we think about the people I think look there are some good people in there We talked about it Louise Hay and the way she was pretty unfairly treated when she lost her job in twenty twenty four I think you've got learning the lessons from history to start from Who is going to be running your downing street? You got to start with getting the chief of staff and knowing who that will actually be and everything flows from that. So if you take Kirstama Sukre had loads of skills in the civil serervice and policy making but she didn't have political depth and experience to be an effective chief of staff. Morgan McSweeney was a very effective political strategist But he didn't have the policy civil service institutional experience to really drive the machine and make it work. And I think Kir Starma in particular Without a chief of staff been u bit at sea, a proper chief of staff and who you put in do your comps and to do your policy, they all flow from person of the chief of staff. you compare I mean, look loads of people have got this wrong On the one hand, if you look at the operation you were in in twenty ten. Actually, the Cameron government had a massive fallout between policy and the headad of communications is very early on between Steve Hilton Andy Clson, but de facto You were the Chancellor and the Chief of staff. with Edward Ellen and that was the thing which held it together and everything flowed from that. that's an important lesson to you you learn. Tony Blair, Jonathan Powell wasn't the all conquering Chief of staff, but he was the person who made actuallyually Alista Campbell and Angie Hunter Defecto, a team chief of staff. everyverybody knew he was really in charge, but they worked as a very tight team They knew what they wanted. The case of Gonbown in two thousand seven I don't think he struggled, didn't he come on I'm going to challenge it. I mean, but partly I think because not I was going to say that. but I don't think people understood the extent to which Gordon Brown would struggle with the transition from the treasury issue by issue budget from budget to the massive number of issues every day It was also the case, lots of the civil servants have really good civil servants who came over struggled. with his struggle to manage that And then look, people who had made it work for him in the treasury particular, me and Ed Villiband We were there We didn't go into number ten Gond didn't ask us too U A least not at the beginning We went off to do two jobs. Maybe that was a big mistake. The point is this, George, you've got to start with What is the actual job And what are all its capabilities and who is the person who can do that for me? If what you start doing giving up. between your supporters in your campaign. say, well, you know, Lucy Powell Louise Hagen and Josh Simons have been loyal. so let's give them these jobs rather than starting from actually need in there. And of course, Luiigues I'm h And at least mitly, I mean, they won't be at number ten. They're going to be going off to do, ministerial or cabinet jobs. And so if they're the people who are holding this operation together at the moment, which I think they are very effectively and they disappear. Does Andy Bernard get left with a vacuum? So there's lots of history to learn from here I mean, there's a guy called Kein Lee, isn't there, who's his sort of right hand man and been with him for years don't know whether Kev's brilliant Yeahah. Is he capable of being the number ten Chief of staff? I don't think Kevin Lee for a second would think he should be the Chief of staff in Downing Street. You need a really good political secretary to make the PLP work with you and the Labour Party Kevin's got deep experience in that I think that was an area where kissed arm, I didn't get it right But that is if you're running the Manchester Morality, it's a different political role to running Downing Street where you've got to domestic foreign policy, such complexity, such policy complexity. If you haven't had experience working with making the civil service machine drive and interact with cabinet ministers in politics. I think's very hard to come from the outside and think you' can be able to do it But isn't it also a problem to bring in someone from the outside? I mean, the point about Ed Lu Ellen and indeed me was we were friends of David Cameron and Edwellen known him for years And you know, the problem for Gordon Brown was You know, when you leave to be in government and Ed Milliban leaves and the earlier kind of brown operation goes He brings in very smallart people like Tom Skoler, who we both know very well, you know, perman secreary of the Treasury later, Stephen Carter. I mean, he brings in these people who on paper are very, very qualified. but But the fundamentally they're not you know, so close to him that they everyone knows that when they speak, they're speaking for for him. I mean, you know, and then you or you can make the kind, you know, Boris Johnson was ultimately brought down by the guy he made his Chief of staff, Dominic Cummings, who he didn't particularly know very well. and Cumings only comes on board when he becomes Prime Minister. So It's, you know, it's hard if you don't have someone like Kevin Lee, who's been with you for years, is's quite hard to just find someone who who looks good on paper Kevinly is not at the center of this machine with Andy Burtam, it will fail That's not the same as being the chief of staff and driving the whole of Downing Street. The problem with Dominit Cummings wasn't only that he was an outsider Bys didn't know He was also somebody who when he came in couldn't actually make the civil serervice and the government work because he was an antagonist rather than a a team builder. But then the counter argument to that. Theresa May She becomes Prime Minister She brings in her two chiefs of staff who've been with her in the home office for all those years. surely they know her really well. surely they can grip things They end up being turfed out a year later and why? Because They thought that they didn't have to build a team in Downing Street. they could just issue the orders and issue the instructions and there was a rebellion because they didn't do the job in the right way. So I think that all argues for being really clear what you actually want and then finding somebody who can do the job which needs to be done rather than starting with the people and saying what titles them And you know, I hope Andy's been thinking about this for months. And you know, he may have a few more weeks to think about it, but History tells you If you simply hand out the jobs Without working out, how it's actually going to work. then all falls apart. And what about his Chancell to Exchquer Obviously, that's the key ministerial appointment I would suggest. But let's come to that when we talk about his economic plan and Manchesterism, which we're going to come to next Still waiting in line Again That's time you'll never get back. Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot comot Join them to save up to ninety percent off carrier rates from your computer or phone right now. Print postage for certified mail, registered mail and packages in seconds, then schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps dot com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift Taxes and fees apply When you're a maintenance engineer in a beverage manufacturing plant, you keep production lines moving and quality on track because there's no room for slowdowns. With Granger's vast selection of high quality motors, sensors, belts, and hard to find parts, you can get what you need fast and all in one place, so nothing gets in the way of getting the job done Call one eight hundred Ganger, click ranger. com or just stop by. Ranger. for the ones who get it done team just added its sixty seventh AI tool And also your sixty seven security blind spot. The good news, the Vanta agent works like a GRC engineer in the background everyvery app your team uses, scoring the risk and drafting fixes for you Avanta is the platform used by over sixteen thousand fast moving companies like Ramp, Cursor, and Harvey who are shaping the future with AI and staying ahead of AI risk Get started at Vanta. com So welcome back There was a time about one hundred and fifty years ago when everyone looked to Manchester, everyone in the world as the first great industrial city for a clue of how to run economies of the future I have to say then there was a pause when people didn't look so much to Manchester. but maybe Manchester is back in the frame. and this phrase has been used. It's I think a relatively recent invention. When I was an MP near Manchester, I don't remember this phrase being used It's Manchesterism. Of course Andy Burnham is the mayor of Manchester And he himself has been deploying this phrase as as an explanation of what his economic plan is going to be. Let's hear him talking about it first I think some of this is about reversing some of the damaging things of the eighties and nineties harmed productivity in this country. when you Transport was broken up and sold off so that people couldn't afford the fares anymore to get into work or where water bills and energy bills have become too high. u you know hurting both individuals and businesses Some of these things have been part of the problem and housing perhaps biggest amongst any of them, The housing crisis is still holding back our residents and holding back our our economy here So yes, we say the vision of the leftft about making sure these essentials of life are there for everybody at a level they can afford is absolutely part of Manchesterism and the way that we think here. But they are also the drivers and the foundations of a more productive economy The drivers of a more productive economy Both you and I since the very beginning of this ast have been urging the government to get a proper growth strategy and you draw upon your experience in the Northern powerhouse And I draw upon all the work I've done, talked about lots of times Harvard Kings about the drivers of regional growth and the experience of regional growth policy in the last thirty years. And having Andy Burnham On this same agenda, I think from my point of view B celebrating that I know you at the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee this week talking about this. So let's come to this really is at a moment. But first of all, should we just start by talking about what this is not? because I think often happens in politics, when you have somebody with a phrase Lots of people then pop up and say, yes, well, you know Let me tell you what it really is. And there are lots of essays being written in left journals at the moment. claiming Andy Burnham for their particular strand of political economy It's the first of all In his experience in Manchester as mayor And in the Manchester economic model of the last twenty years has breaking from fiscal rules to Borrow more part of the model is the short answer I mean, first of all, Manchester isn't if it's a thing predates Sandy Burnne you know, the real kind of authors of it were two leaders of Manchester City Council, first of all Graham Stringer and then very much Richard Lese. And it's been carried on, it should be said by the current leader of Manchester City Council, Bev Craig, who I think insteadily is very likely to be the candidate labour candidate to be mayor of Manchester. if Burnnam wins in Makerfield. And Howard Bernstein, this sort of legendary Chief Eecive of Manester City Council you know, was very honored to speak at his memorial service And that speaks to something else, which is it was done in cooperation, often with Tory governments or Tory Chancellors. In particular, well they wasn in Chancell, I should say, Michael Hesseltim, initially, and then me as Chancellor So it so it had these features to it that it was pragmatic, it was non partisan that it was very focused on delivering the income before deciding how to spend it that it was very keen on attracting inward investment into Manchester, not just from the rest of the country, but from the rest of the world. Think of Manchester City football club and the UAE, the Emirates invvesting in Manchester City center And of course, they were labour councils, so they were progressive in that sense they worked closely with the private sector as well. and it was very un ideological and remains very un ideological. And that was the big contrast with some other labor led cities in the North during this whole period So it wasn't a rejection of markets Mm Oen economics or somehow the neoliberalism of the last forty years, it wasn't a rejection of two thousands or even parts of the Thatcher reforms of the eighties and nineties. No, not at all. It it was the Labour leadership that didn't go to war with Margaret Thatcher. I mean, obviously the big contrast is with the nearby metropolis of Liverpool, you know, just down the road effectively and the long battles between the labor leadership in Liverpool and Thatcher. Now, it's not to say that it's lais sais fire. I think Andy Boh is quite right to say definitely, you know, it's not it's different. and some of the interventions You know, which were all about things like the council asking the government for money or the power to borrow money against projected tax incomes that would come if they invested in the city or if there was growth in the city And the deals I did in twenty twelve and twenty fourteen with Manchester were things like, okay, well we'll give you some money, or you can borrow some money for housing O or the construction of those tower blocks, you know, the skyscrapers in the middle of Manchester that have popped up That will generate, you say, more business rates the Exchquer , for example Well, you can keep some of that if you do it because you're delivering economic growth and that's an incentive on you to get it done rather You know, because lots of local authorities have no incentive to ahead with planning so don't keep the benefits that accrue to it. So it was you know, there was definitely a state intervention in the form of local government intervention. It's not lais sais fire, but it's also not a rejection of neoliberalism or let alone the private sector. It's very much in partnership with the private sector. And how about the idea that this is also about u not just a rejection of privatization. the renationalization of the economy and in Manchester you Things have been taken back into public control buses and therefore this will then lead to the naturationalization of water or electricity will tackle the cost of living by the public sector taking control. againgain I don't see really any of that in the Manchester experience, even bus reforms Andy has done, which are good bus reforms are all about the public sector more effectively regulating Prive operators to deliver bus services Yeah, I mean, look transport links have been a key part of Manchester's success and ob wouldious say a key part of the theory of the Northern powerhouse You know, which, although I articulated was devised originally by Jim O'Neill the economist who came into the treasury even though's sort of leftish in his politics, and he's clearly also helping and advising Andy Berham behind the scenes now The deregulation of the buses and the reversse of that was actually something Richard Lis wanted in the agreement I struck with him to create a Manchester mayayor long before Andy Berham was potential candidate. He was still a member of Parliament and a member of the shadow cabinet, I think at the time But transport investment in the science and the universities and the cultural infrastructure of the city And yes, then these partnerships with the private sector, energy and water, you know, I personally think, you know, I don't feel that strongly about what I'm about to say are a bit of a distraction There's lots of issues about how they've been regulated in the private sector, but usually the argument is that cost is trying to keep down consumer prices by the powerful regulators has actually what's driven under invvestment in the infrastructure which has led now to higher prices as the infrastructure creaks. And in the energy sector, I think you can quite convincingly say, a succession of governments including Ed Milliman and this government have, you know, imposed climate targets on energy bills and that's what's driven the So that's actually state intervention. So I don't think the utilities is where I would go to first. And you know, here I am at this founders forum,, you know, lots of tech entrepreneurs from around the world here. You know, what they want is a sign that Britain is you a place you can do business, set up a business, be an entrepreneur, employ people. That's what they want to hear. And labor governments have been able in the past to send the signal that that's very welcome, including of course, the government that you were part of in in nineteen ninety seven That is also the message that Richard Lis and Howard Bernstein And Andy Berno's mayor has sent come to Manchester to do your business. and that to my mind is what Andy Burnham, if he becomes Prime Mister needs to communicate to the world Of course, it doesn't only have to be about come to Manchester And and actually the learning, which has been learnted in Manchester has also been learnt in other parts of the UK. I mentioned the Harvard Kingss work which we did, we looked at America and in Europe and said there is something particular about Britain which means that our city regions are underpowered, they're too small productroive enough You actually need to make your city centers places to live in They need to be scaled. And therefore, whether you have on local transport Whether you invest in housing whether you actually encourage innovation and ideas to the region through the universities to attract in businesses, those are all the things which matter rather than being able to borrow off budget or being able to to nationalize the commanding heights of the economy And I think Manchester has been better at telling that story, partly because it had better collaboration between the local authorities even before the mayor came along in the first place, but actually What we need to do in Manchester, what Andy Street was doing in Birmingam, what is happening in West Yorkshire also learning from the rest of the world and I think Manchester was earlier and better at telling that story. But it's really important to understand This is about the drivers of growth in our economy. When we say Rachel Reeves. needs a grow strategy What we've really it's been so frustrating. The treasury in the early period of the government A bit of signs of change more recently have been unwilling to enage in the regional growth agenda, the Manchester, but I would say also the leads in Birmingham agenda in the way they should have done. Angela Rayer was a champion, but of course she then left the cabinet and Steve Reid has I think done a good job carrying this on, but he's not the deputy Pime Mister And and it's different for him because he's a London based politician does have the same depth understandably as Angela or we would have in northern cities, but he's been a big champion of the mayors and of course particular big champion of the role of M of London good thing to say is that you know, whether it's Andy Burnham Well actually we're streeting in terms of these he said, certainly Anrew Rayna I think there is the opportunity to embrace this growth agenda with more enthusiasm in the next period of government than we've seen in the past. and the really important thing The Labor government and kissed armor didn't ditch the mayors and the combined authorities, which would have been such a retrograde step. You were at the House of Lords this week Yes, I was appearing before Cen called the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. and I have to say when you sit down is quite intimidating becausecause sitting in front of you are all these faces like Robin Butler and Terry Burns two former permanent secretaries at the Treasury or in Robin Butler's case, a cabinet secretary. Yeah Dave Prentice, the great Union leader During the nineties and the two thousands when I was in office, I dealt with him. and you know various political characters from the past. So you look at this group of people, you go, wow, these People do know what they are talking about And they were interrogating precisely this, you know, they were looking at fiscal devolution. what's the next great step? Because the big disaointment, one of the big disappointments of the Stalmmer government I think everyone had assumed, I think you and I had assumed that they would come in and there'd be the next big step of not just keeping the mayors, but giving more powers to the mayors and nothing happens. There's a bit of a hint of it that it might happen would have happened if Star had survived because Rachel Reeves put it in her recent Mace lecture. but it hasn't happened. Anyway, the main argument I was making is that I think there is scope for to learn from Manchester where there was quite a lot of fiscal innvation, which I was referring to earlier about letting them keep the proceeds of additional tax receipts And indeed potentially levying some additional taxes themselves or sort of surcharges on taxes And sort of turbocharging that. because it's not like the current model is working for the UK Well certainly for England And I think some things have changed. A you know, we've got examples like Manchester, which clearly have pulled away and Manchester is a real success story relative to some other cities. And second, you know it's not like people have confidence now that the eople in White Hall and Westmns are no best anymore So I hope that you know, whoever is the new labour leader or whoever becomes the next governor after the election, get double down on Manchestterism in its true and understood form, which is pragmatic pro growth, think about income before spending and trusts. well run local cities. Definitely. You'll be pleased to know that our final paper in our Harvard Kings series assessing the government's first two years on regional growth, including Lessons from Manchester, We're publishing that in July becoming a book in the Autumn trying to kind of give a bit of an impetus to the next phase of the government on this agenda and Manchester will be in there. And I think we may talk about some of the things which should been done in the world other than Manchester, but there'll be a bit of Manchesters have been there I promise the House of Lord's Selectommittee is u where lots of serious economic thinking happens, isn't it? And I think in fact, you and I both gave evidence there jointly about the Bank of England a couple of years ago. Yes, yes we did. So there was lots of serious discussion of policy at the commommittee, but I did use the opportunity in Parliament on the record to pay tribute to Kevin Wheelan who has been the Chancellor's messenger for forty years So the first chancellor worked with was Nigel Lawson, and there' been a lot of chancellors since then And he you know would deliver the confidential messages between the treasury and number ten. He'd take the budget books within government. He'd deliver the red boxes, produces cups of tea and coffee regularly during the day. And this is this is what I said with him and I got a I got a nice little Not a rebuff at all, but a sort of quip from Robin Butler afterwards. Have a listen to this And I should mark in Parliament the fort a retirement of Kevin, the Chancellor's messenger who's been doing that job for forty years Starting with Nigel Lawson ties, I think this week Lord Burns and I were in the treasy even before Kevin. But I Very good. Of course what we don't know is u Who the new Treasury Messenger is and who the new Chancellor Echhecker is likely to be because that's also going to be a lively topic of discussion around a Burnham premiership if it comes Well, I would say, as with the Chief of staff, so with the Chancellor Worout first of all. job you want doing and what your underlying strategy is and then make sure you deliver a chancellor who can deliver that M Let's discuss it next week. And happy retirement once again to Kevin. Yes Now, the rest of the world and probably the rest of the country are not remotely interested in what's going on in the House of Lords, or indeed, probably what's going on in the Labour leadership because all eyes are on the World Cup, which is kicking off And we thought we'd just do a quick Look at whet whether the World Cup has any impact on politics or vice versa. and we're going to turn to that as our final item Still waiting in line Again. That's time you'll never get back. Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot comot Join them to save up to ninety percent off carrier rates from your computer or phone right now. Print postage for certified mail, registered mail and packages in seconds, then schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps dot com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift Taxes and fees apply team just added its sixty seventh AI tool. And also your sixty seven security blind spot. The good news, the Vanta agent works like a GRC engineer in the background every app your team uses, scoring the risk and drafting fixes for you Avanta is the platform used by over sixteen thousand fast moving companies like Ramp, Cursor, and Harvey who are shaping the future with AI and staying ahead of AI risk Get started at Vanta. com You want to get your backyard summer ready, but you don't want to break the bank? Wayfair gets it, planning on dining alfresco or relaxing poolside Wayfare has everything you need to prep your space. Shop now and save up to seventy percent off during Wayfair's Fourth of July clearance. sccore huge deals on outdoor furniture, area rugs, and more. We're talking thousands of products for every style and budget. Plus, surprise Flash deals July sixth. Don't wait. Shop Wayfare's Fourth of July clearance now through july sixth at wayfare dot com d Pay fair, every style, every home. So tonight the World Cup which is being held in the United States, Mexico and Canada all together. is kicking off with Mexico playing South Africa in the first game And people who like sports don't want to mix it with politics, but that's not what the politicians think. They've sometimes tri to jump on sport and particularly soccer great one of the great what ifs of them British politics for aficionados is the nineteen seventy general election. which Harold Wilson calls. And everyone expects he's going to get reelected And the problem is about three or four days before polling day, England who who were the who were the holders of the World Cup because they won in nineteen sixty six They they lose to West Germany And I think three two and Germ West Germany fight back and u it looks like England going to win and then Wester G would come back. And a lot of people at the time thought that that kind of depressed the national mood and and delivered a punch to Harold Wilson's chances and Ted Heath got elected So that's kind of one of the what ifs of British politics. these days A load of boring political scientists tell us, o no, that's not true. I like to believe, I mean I wasn't even bored, but I like to believe maybe there was an element of truth to But what do we think? Do we think we'll come on to again of all the politics around Trump being the host or one of the hosts of this World Cup Do we think is there any interaction between how your team affairs and your national politics Oh well, look, there's some great academic research on this. I was actually kind of digging into it the other day Andrew Buroi wrote a very interesting paper in International Studies Quarterly on nationalism and Conflict lessons from International sport in which he shows that those countries which have a tighter qualification, you know, a more kind of tense and difficult qualification process, end up Building up nationalist Sentiment in their countries and therefore they are more likely to end up in external conflict or you know, and with separatist forces. So why is that? whyy? if they have a tougher Is it because they succeed also, presumably? because they succeed. So they get to the World Cup, having had a tough fight And it builds up nationalist or separatist sentiment, which means that the population is then more up stuff and of course, you know, nineteen seventy eight when Argentina won the World Cup. I mean that time. The generals absolutely saw this as a way of up Argentinian nationalist sentiment, you know arguably ended up with the Falklands invasion four years later. What this mean for Scotland? Do you say the World Cup led to the Falklands Well well it did because the World Cup was seventy eight and the Falklands was in eighty two and there was but the international evidence was the only time they' be Argentina in the World Cup. I mean ex England football team has been anyway That is true but I mean, if you think about Scotland I mean, amazingly tight qualifications into the World Cup, Keddy McLean's goal. dying seconds for John Swweeninney and the SMP Is Scotland getting to the World Cup and doing well Do this Rocket fuel protist nationalist sentiment in Scotland. I mean, you know, They've got a bank holiday on Monday, and they're only playing on Sunday morning I remember when I once foolishly inside though Cervative some conservative discussions saying, whyy can't we just field one UK team like everyone else because you know, we'd have like Gareth Bale playing rather than he's, you know Captain of Wales anyw The looks around the room said George, I don't think you completely understand this. Can I give you another paper? Yeah go. Miguel Edward Sii and Shanka Civil war exposure. is that the bad for Economics and Pitics journal twenty three number one, twenty eleven fifty nine to seventy three in which they point out players who have been exposed to violence in their upbringing. The cost of living in more conflict orientated zones of the world are more likely They're more likely to get yellow or red cards in the World Cup in football tournaments. I mean what these political scientists do, God only knows, I mean there's some great papers out there And what about Trump? I mean, one of my great memories is I was it watching on TV, but do you remember when France won the World Cup in nineteen ninety eight against Brazil and Jack Chirat Pident of France was sort of in the receiving line And the President of FIFA was supposed to hand over the trophy to the captain of the French. team at the time, Did Deson Chirak just grabbed the trophy and handed it to the French captain himself. So You know, good luck to Gianni Infantino the controversial, let's say, Pident of FIFA if he attempts to hand over the World Cup standing next to Donald Trump because I think Donald Trump will hand. Of course we saw that last year, last year was the FIFA world h competition Donald Tred went onto the pitch. Chelsea won it. I know. Donald Trump goes onto the pitch And then not only hands over the trophy, he then refuses to let go of it and ends up standing in the middle of the Chelsea team when they do their big celebration with all the fireworks. and the Chelsea players were all saying, well, you know, We thought he was going to leave and he wouldn't go In fact, I think I'm right in saying that the Nural ended up being taken by Donald Trump to the White House and they had to give Chelsea a replicate. I'm not sure that's true. What I do know is Donald Trump was shown one of the winning medals and he put it in his pocket