The Challenge of Social Care Reform

Still waiting in line Again That's time you will never get back. Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot com. Join them to save up to ninety percent of carrier rates from your computer or phone right now Print posted for certified mail, registered mail, and packages in seconds. Then schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps. com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift. Taxes a fee is a b. This is political currency with Ed Balls and George Osborne. So it's half term this week. The schools are off I'm not in goodood morning Britain this week Parliament is not sitting B spnd a bit of time in sunnier climes This week, come we George Yes, well, you say Sonyia Climes, Actually, I went to Washington where it was pouring with rain the entire time I was there. but I went for a flying visit with my four year old son Beau to goo to the swearing in of Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve att the White House, we've talked about him before on the podcast. He is the godfather to Bow. It wasn't completely random that I took my four year old on this trip. But when we got the invite, we You know, forty eight hours notice. Literally I got in my inbox like the Pident of the United States invites you to the White House My first instinct was, well, I can't do that. And then I was like, do something like that And poil Beow, I mean from Diggerand to the swearing in of a federal Rerve chair at the White House. And which did he prefer Well, he was the youngest person there and I think I was the second youngest person. There was quite a big age gap U I mean, it's always very special when he goes to the White House. I mean, obvious I've been quite a few times in my life, but every time there's a little shiver goes down your spine And it's been a while since I've been. So the first impression it's a building site., you know, he's building a ballroom, but it's very obvious when you turn out The whole thing is a building site you know, you have to sort of go through various sort building fences and so on. And then in the actual main hall, which It's not where the political meetings te to happen. they happen in the West wing famously, but in the main kind of receptional, which has got those big famous portraits of the American Pidents The famous one of John F. Kennedy looking down the Bmal one. Lyndon Johnson. As you walk in, there's this enormous portrait of The moment Trump was shot at that rally or the Bllet hit his ear And of course, normally presidents donon't put up their portraits until they've left And they normally put up a sort of portrait of them just sort of looking at the painter but this greets you to come in, this enormous Trump photo But the whole ceremony was magnificent, as I was obviously thrilled for my friend. and the swearing in. and you know, it's a great kind of a moment in the American Republic and you get a f real sense of of American power on display, the cabinet there, the head of the CIA, the banks, the hedge funds, that, you know, I mean, it's American power in the room It sounds your perfect miliar G your sp. but look It's the White House, not a yacht, but George Osbord with the pabrick is It was it was it was fun to I've never witnessed one of those ceremonies and I have to say Beau was extremely well behaved and then we went off to the Air and Space Museum to see the space shuttle And the Backbird plane. this is the one near the airport, It's brilliant. that's a bit more diggleand. I after recording this podcast, I'm getting the train through Wiggan Although unlike most Labour reform conservative politicians, I won't be getting off a wig and I'm not going to the makeake and Field by election. I'm off this weekend to climb Heelvellin and with a couple of my mates and I'm hoping the weather will be a bit cooler. Just to remind me I of course I do know, but just remind me where on Earth hell Velen is Is that some is we were carrying in this podcast. You said to me, is this an island? I said no It's a mountain in the lake district with which famously has striding edge and the sort of narrow rocky pathway when you're going up or coming down. I think we'll come down Stiding ge Talking about a mountain, come on It's not like a mounted you know, layers or the out. Look, the lake district always feels like mountains even though they aren't. I mean, you know, it's over three thousand so it's a proper climb, but it's not. Fverest is eight thousand meters Hving clim Kimanjara. What's the highest man you've been up to Oh, actually, I have climbed Mount Stanley in the Ruunzori Mountains in Africa, which is a proper high mountain And it's definitely it's definitely over four thousand meters and it may be higher It's not the high. mjoy. Nope Anyway, we should get on with it because as I said, there'll be people getting off the train in Wiggan going to the Makerfield by election, which has still got three weeks to run before people actually vote. But this week we've had Andy Bernands launch We've also had a rolling rail between reform and restore the Rupert Low challenger to Farage's party. So we thought we'd talk about the by election first. And then of course, the Master returns. Tony Blair has made a dramatic intervention into British politics with a five and a half thousand word essay and then a bunch of interviews to follow it up explaining, you know what is wrong with the Starmer government What is wrong with the Labour leadership contest, which he doesn't even pretend? isn't happening And indeed what is wrong with the British political classes because he's not very sparing about the other in British politics either. Why has he done it? And what do we think of the critique? And then in his campaign launch, Andy Burnham revived his past policy to introduce a social care levy to reform social care to replace inheritance tax with that tax on death to fund social care. and we thought we would ask Why has social care reformed consistently failed to be delivered by government after government, including when Andy Burnham was last the health secretary in a Labor government, two thousand nine ten and this time What advice can we give him about how he should go about it if he's going to deliver All others have failed But let's start with the by election. and you know all the poing suggests it's still very close Even though I think it would be fair to say that Andy Burnham's campaign looks like it's firing on all cylinders and he's certainly hit no problems early on and the kind of social media contontent looks pretty professional a mix of professional and authentic both the reform candidate, will'll come onto this in a moment, Kenyan and the green candidates have got into trouble. In fact, the Green Party has had to change its candidate and the Conservatives are nowhere to be seen. So you know, it looks like it's off to a sort of strong start for Burnham. And before we get on to know the clip, we just note in passing that there is still a prime Mister sitting in London. There isn't a formal leadership contest underway. and he reminds me a bit of a sort of medieval king sort of stuck in London, the army' deserted him and there's this sort of force of rebels coming down from the North. He's just s of waiting the outcome of this sp election. Anyway, Park Stalmer for a moment Andy Burnham is has started doing this kind of daily TikTok I think it turns to quite a lot about Burnham himself and the campaign. Yeah, this was the very first of the daily TikToks. this is a clip from it. We haven't been good enough and we need to be better locally and nationally locally. I was with resesidents in Win Stanley last night talking about green belt issues and I know we need a change in the borough shift the burden of development from greenfields to the local centres. And that's a change nationally The reason why I highlighted that clip is first of all, right at the beginning, hes, you know, making no pretense that this is just about Makerfield. He's making an argument about the country and about the Labour partarty, explicitly says. L buddy has not been doing well enough and weve got to change that But then when you actually get into the kind of issues of the by election He's straight into trimming and you turning on existing government positions in order to try and win because the by election is close or at least appears to be close at this point And I thought you had a very good example. The one thing you would say and we've talked about it on this show quite a bit over the last two or three years is that Kiss arma did makeake a bold promise build on the green belt to tear up the planning laws What's the very first thing Burnham announces in the by election Oh he's going to reverse that and he's going to protect the green belelt. Why? Because it's an issue in Makerfield. It's a out of Manchester constituency and it have bits of the green belt in it I think it kind of highlights this big question Berham's going to have and we'll come on to the Blair critique, which is you promise change. You say everything's got to change, but when it actually comes to it What is the change you're promising It's very interesting. and I think partly why this by election is going to be tight There's a very good piece of analysis by Rob Ford, the University of Manchester prorofessor And I don't think I had realized until I read this in detail quite how similar this constituency is to the constituencies I fought, Normanton, Morlean outwward when I was in Parliament, because there isn't a place called Makerfield. It's a set of villages, maybe small towns close to the M sixty two, it's not wigant It's not Liverpool. it's not Manchester and the residents Well look to all those places but feel separate for them It's a place which has lower unemployment the national average, much higher car use A lot of Greenfield land. I mean this is not kind of urban city centre labour It's not industrial labour, but what it has. It's not the road to Wigam Peter, is it I think if when you say wigan are people who don't know Wigan and it's a bit unfair on Wigan these days, but have a kind of view, don' they of pressed industrial area. It's not that at all. There'll be a lot of people living in new build, commuting by car to Liverpool or to Wigen or to Manchester. But what it's had is a Labour heritage cost of an old tradition of cold mining. I think until Ian McCartney who was the last MP but won, all the MPs before that had been linked to mining had been in coal mining. In Normonton, I was the first ever MP not to be coal miner But In Morlean Outwood and in North Wakefield, Stanley Outwood, those were places which didn't really feel either part of Leeds or part of Wakefield, but where lots of people commuting by car And where those old industrial ties were waning And that has held Labours in that seat in the parliamentary elections in the most recent local elections, reform stormed it as happened by the way in Wakefield as well and my old constituency. So Those old historical ties are waning. They're sort of idea that that's always how we vote and suddenly issues about, well, Can I use my car And are they going to build on the green belt and are the schools good enough? Th are things which will reallyready matter to voters in that. constituency and Andy Burnham, you know He's doing what I did back in twenty fifteen. You know, let's protect valuable green belt and let's build on the Brownfield sites. It's a bit different from builders not blockers. It's reflecting the fact that he knows that this is the kind of constituency which has undoubtedly become more marginal over the the years Yeah, I mean, you referred to the car you said because the second TikTok he put out, day two of his campaign vlog was him saying look, I'm against a low emission zone in Manchester and I fought Boris Johnson who tried to impose one on Manchester and you know, there is one in London that Cidy C was proud to introduce and there would be lots of people on the sort of progressive end of politics who say, yeah, low emission zones is exactly what we need, clean air campaigns net zero, etcera. Again, Burnham is actually moving in a more in a classic sense, rightwards, I mean it's not quite because you know it was actually a Tory government trying to get this thing imposed on Manchester I mean, I represented much more affluent area than Mgerfield, but not dissimilar on the outskirts of Manchester also towns and communities Tatten didn't exist as a place except as a kind of local national trust property And I imagine people don't even know they live in the Makerfield constituency, particularly. just like people didn't particularly know they lived in the Taton constituency But car use was a big issue, as you've mentioned it several times, it's not to be underestimated. There was an attempt to introduce a congestion charge in Manchester, which I wasn't against as the local MP But I found my constituency was hugely hostile to it. It's interesting because it's you Burnham is an adept politician. I think he's come on a lot since you know, he was in Parliament, partly because he's been the mayor of Manchester. So he's had to do that thing that only really prime mininisters or opposition leaders have to do, which is own the whole project with their personality, be the front man or the front woman of the operation So he's already had to do that And you know, he has a very kind of easy touch which is going to be, I think quite effective when it first arrives in Westminster. You know he wears a t shirt, he's not his campaign literature has got a sort of emoji style picture of him on it and so on U thenen you get to the policy and it's not really clear what he's for. It's kind of clear. I'm not for building on the green belt. I'm not for a low emission zone But does that mean you're not for Net zero. Do it mean you're not for building homes? in which case, where you going to build the hom? A areren't you just going to be the same? hole that the Torory governments were in where they said We want to build homes in city centers, but you know, that doesn't in practice happen. So you know, it's interesting. He has a sort of vague promise, doesn't he of moving to the left, taking control, he continues to repeat this thing public. control, not ownership, public control of the utilities Manchesterism, which I think there's something real there, but he hasn't sort of articulated exactly how you'd bring that to the national stage. There's no doubt that he is a very good communicator and good at this kind of retail politics. There's two things. One, which goes to point you made earlier Normally in by elections with all the media attention You kind of want your candidate to be likable and low profile and able to speak about the local issues But if you try simultaneously to both run a by election campaign and also campaign for national leadership, then suddenly you have to answer all the questions about what is your vision for Britain's place in Europe Do you want a social care levy? what would you like to do to taxation, which wouldn't normally be questions by election candidates have to answer. Let's be honest, they aren't questions which mayors have to answer either because normally mayors don't have any purchase over the level of corporate taxation or income taxation or our relationship with the European Union on how we pay for social care. Andy Burden by putting himself at the centre of national campaign brings all those questions to him And it's going to be difficult and at times a bit jarring answering them by election contest. but the other thing I think, which is, you know, this is just a straw in the wind But I pick it up from reading, Dan Hodgers has been there a lot. Jennifer Williams, ex Manchester Eing News now at the Financial Times If you have, by the way, a great journalist. quite a bit when she was at the Manchester Eingews She didn't always write tice things about me, but I always respected her approach. She's really good. and this is another parallel with my experience with Maorleen oututwood when I was, you know in the media spotlight Shad a Chancellor Lots of cameras coming Lots of media attention. I think you and David Cameron tipped up during my campaign certainly in twenty in twenty ten If you are I was there in twenty fifteen as well I was popping him to say hello that's good with the now reform mayor of Great L Andrew Jenkins. We were I think we were putting building a roof on a house, actually. If you have a constituency like this which is not ito Theedes or Manchester A small towns and villages It's not clear that the voters particularly like all this media spotlight, all these cameras in the streets You know there was a bit of that, I remember in the campaigns I fought. I pick it up from those journalists I mentioned in terms of their reporting. There is a danger here that voters start to kind of be a bit grumpy about this. If I were reform I would be going heavy on This is all about Andy Burnham's rise to the Prime Ministership. This is an unnecessary bie election. We didn't need to have this. It's all about him. It's not about us. I just get a feeling from the reporting I've been seeing that there there's a risk in that for Andy and actually he needs to be, maybe this is his green belt point. mayaybe he needs to be the local candidate a bit more. The trouble is it's very hard to do that now because you know, the Prime Ministership Jennie is out of the bot That is what he is going to be asked the whole time. but you know, the problem is given them there's been rather a lot of media coverage for the reform candidates in his social media posts, It's quite hard to say, you know, don't turn Makerfield into a circus times you are grabbing the media spotlight and clowning around yourself. So you know there are dangers for reform in this too. but I think, you know, stw in the wind What do the voters of Makerfield think? about this massive three week long media circuits in a bia election they didn't have to have. That's something just to be T be conscious of if you're fighting the Burnden campaign Yeah, I think that' very good advice It's hard to know what he would actually do about it given that he is very likely to become the Prime Minister in my view, if he wins this by election What about the other candidates? You say straw in the wind, There are some straws in the wind on there for potentially British politics over the next couple of years. mean I mentioned the green candidates, I say candidates because the first candidate, Chris Kennedy you know, he had to be dumped because he had described, you remember that terrible attack on the Jewish ambulances in North London He had gone on social media.t Gold is green. Yeah saying that was a false flag. And I do think the Green Party is going to have a whole set of issues over the next couple of years with anti Semitism and the things that the various candidates they are going to put up have said The rather thin skinned Zach Polansky says he's being unfairly targeted because why do they keep asking him all these questions about his Council tax and things he said and done in the past. and you think, well, that's actually because party leader and that's what scrutiny is all about and everybody kind of has to deal with it. and if you can't deal with it, you know, you're doing the wrong job. And if you say you're bring honesty to British politics, you shouldn't claim you worked for the Red Cross when you didn't. And then we get on to reform So it looked like they'd chosen the perfect candidate, the plumber. We've mentioned before plumbers are popular in these bialections at the moment But again, people have trarawled through the social media, perhaps unsurprisingly So there are two complaints against him. One is a very legitimate one, which is He said, you know, he he said all these essentially misogynous things In fact, it doesn't even pretend that he's not He says, I'm sexist. I'm sorry, but I am and then says some very unpleasant things about abortions and makes the observation in his view that women can't ref I guess something me be a referee, drive or give directions So I don't think that's going to go down well with at least half of the voters in Makeerfield. The other complaint against him is you the most heinous crime is that he, along with forty eight percent of the country voted remain in the referendum. And that is the thing that the Tories have piled on and you know Reformers saying this is a terrible lie and in fact he voted leave, but it's not always a good idea to contrict your own candidate in a by election uh, you know The majority of Tory voters also voted Former Tory voters also That's all been lost in in the Wash over the last ten years. But it does take us to the I think the most significant thing happening this week which is the routs which have been happening within reform about how to deal with restore the reap at low party, Rupert Le thrown out of reform, set up his own party. They are now running in Makerfield, but with what seems to be a very effective ground game not based around Elon Musk and X, but I think Facebook ads into local groups a very powerful technique. And as a result, the polling is that The store is doing really quite well in this by election. now. L I think reform is still way ahead. know, but it could be enough to deny reform you know the victory by taking votes away from them. and this all comes down to betrayal. and the true path I mean, the restore argument And this kind of goes to Kenyian voting Romaine, I guess, but more generally Nigel Farage is you know that They are not being true to you know, the tough line on immigration that we want and the tough approach to Britishness that they want to impose upon a diverse population and the Nigel Farraage is bottling it that he's not actually being the leader that we want And you see this, you know, we've had Elon Musk out on X saying restore are the real party? You had last weekend JD Vance the American Vice President. urging on. the Tobby Robinson demonstrations and saying that you these are the people who will take on the scourge of immigration in Britain. And then you had that big bust up between Zia Yseuf and Robert Genereick about whether or not people who are not British citizens living in social housing would be automatically deported, which Genereick says they wouldn't. And Z Ysef says, hang on aet, you're not in charge of immigration policy for reform, I am is something which we've talked about a lot on this podcast in the last year or so about the Nigel Farage strategy. which is of how does he deal with These attacks from the pure right. saying that he's, you know, bending too much in the wind doing U turns, moving towards the centre ground. He seems in this bialection to be handling it by being entirely absent and not going there at all. be Nigl Farge has disappeared But it is a dilemma for him. I'm not sure it's the dilem he's handling well, and his party seems to be in turmil. Well, first we may well have concluded they're not going to win, so he doesn't want to be associated with it. And because he was very much associated with the attempt in Gorton and Denton and in the collections which reform did well in. And I think, you know, isn't it we should come back to this. Isn't it the sort of story of Nitl Farge that he is a very effective sadly, in my view, but anyway, a very effective one man band. But every attempt to sort of construct a party around him, whether it's UKI or the Brexit partarty or reform, wh ultimately struggles because he's not really collegiate. and the characters that tend to associate themselves with him, Well A aren't nearly as good and B aren't particularly savory. And so And then they all start falling out with each other, which often happens with sort of fringe partics not fringe anymore, I understand. I mean, that's one of the kind of big features of British politics, but the fact that, you know If you're appealing to the kind of bits of the electorate that feel left behind or angry about certain things, then you've you do create a space for restore or whoever it is to pop up. and you know it's not insignificant they have the world's richest man with who owns X pumping out propaganda for them The thing is though, this is such an opportunity for Nigel Farrage. L, I've never actually believed he wants to be the Pime Minister. I think he cares more about being a hero. But if you want to be Prime Minister The right strategy, this is looking ahead to our conversation about Tony Blair in a moment is to reach into the center ground. His strength was when he said, I don't want Tommy Robinson in my party. That was a good thing for him do, but of course that then winds up and restore and reap it low. That is his opportunity. What I think is in his mind is this. He can deal with Elon Musk He can even deal with JD Vans. He can certainly deal with Rupert Lowe But if Donald Trump comes out, in the coming months and says I'm really disappointed in Ngel Farraage I thought more of him He's not the guy who's really taking the argument to change Britain I think that he's scared to death of that because that stops him being hero with the guy he probably most wants to be the hero for who is his own hero And so u As a consequence, he's sort of caught you know in the headlights. He doesn't know what to do. If it was me, I would bem taking on of a store. and saying, no, I'm going to lead the sensible center right party But we don't want Tommy Robson to be my party. but he's unwilling to do that and therefore, he'suck. I don't think he's absent because he thinks he's going to lose. He's absent because he doesn't know what to say. Yeah,ough it's exactly the dilemma the Tories had ten, fifteen years ago, which is if you talk up the party to your right, are you just kind of giving them oxygen U Anyway, talk about Donald Trump. one of the many pieces of advice that unsolicited advice that Tony Blair offered to the Labour Party was how to deal with Donald Trump But there are lots of other things in his five and fivealf thousand word missive, and we are gonna turn to that next Still waiting in line Aain, That's time you'll never get back. Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot comot Join them to save up to ninety percent off carrier rates from your computer or phone right now. Print postage for certified mail, registered mail, and packages in seconds. then schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps dot com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift taxes and fees apply So welcome back Blair. written a five thousand seven hundred word essay criticizing Dammaed govern giving advice to thinks will be the next Minister he clearly thinks the leadership election is underway. You have to give it to Tony Blair. He can certainly capture people's attention And I think if you kissed Ama, you'd be ious because he's kind of written out the script by Tony Blair this week. So I tell you what came to mind when I read it and it suddenly appeared My phone I'd love to hear what your initial reaction was. but my initial reaction, I thought of suuccession And I thought of that great scene in that miniseries where Logan Roy, the media mogul assembles his heirs, his kids curiously in a kind of karaoke bar, I think. And he says, you are not serious people. That's his big complaint about his successors. And that is essentially Tony Blair's big complaint about his successors, both Tory prime ministers, but also this current Labour prrime minister and those who are contending to replace him. I mean, he doesn't really hold back You know, he is pretty withering in his critique of the British political classes over the last decade. Since when would you say his critique starts? Well, the interesting thing is that his critique of Britain, I'm pleased to say starts in twenty sixteen after I leave office, but his critique of the Labour Party quite explicitly starts in two thousand seven, which is a somewhat gratuitous swipe but his immediate successor, Gordon Brown because twenty sevenenty, of course is the year when Tony Blair is essentially forced out of office. L what was before we get on to the I have to say, He can set the agenda I've heard Tony Blair this argument So many times over the last twenty, twenty five, thirty years. And he is a brilliant communicator and, you know writer of a popular narrative but he's never he clearly wrote it himself, by the way. I've seen him do it before. He sits there in long handand and writes it in pen onto paper. although it looked to be like there were quite a few paragraphs which had been cut and pasted in from the Tony Blair Institute's pololicy works along the way. He's never done a lot of humility Tony Blair to be fair. and you know the he won three elections. Why does he need to? As he points out, he's the only labour leader to have ever won a full second term for labour It' true. I mean, look there are some people. We discussed this on our podcast when we went through the two thousand seven election, who urged Gordon Brown T be more distinctive in policy terms from Tony Blair, particularly around child poverty and equality and opportunity, Gordon didn't want to do that. I mean I think Gordon was rather reluctant to move to the left in two thousand seven. and know that was partly because he was worrying that Tony Blair and he were less popular than they'd been in ninety seven, two thousand one, two thousand five Th which could rather c jred with me on that two thousand seven point he it Tony in his article highlights the scourge of high immigration which of course began in two thousand four with the decision Tony championed not to have transitional controls on migration from Eastern Europe, that kind of forgotten in this argument I could see I kind of missed that out. I'm glad you really got under your skin. Lets Let's start with Oh, there's so much more to say. Oh There's so much more to say. come let's start with the big argument And we're going to come on to what it means for labour and indeed, why did he do it? But What about this critique that, you know, I mean, it's summed up with Britain is becoming marooned as an island of irrelevance. Th those are his words. What did you buy his argument that essentially we don't have we don't have governments that commit to the long term, have a strategy We don't have a realistic view of Britain's role in the world, so we pursue kind of crazy policies like net zero, even though pointed this out various interviews he's done around the this essay. evenven though we're less than one percent of global emissions, we're spending more on welfare or we're set to than we are on defense and so. What about the kind of big Tony Blair argument? What was your view? The critique and the solution Well, so first of all on the the critique I think his argument that you have to win a mandate based upon ideas and an analysis of Britain and the world is completely right And at Kir Starma, let's be honest elected as labour leader in twenty twenty by not being Jeremy Corbyn and then won a general election in twenty twenty four by not being Vichi Sunak and the Cervatives didn't deliver either an understanding of what was happening in Britain or ask for a mandate to really change that other than not being the Tories And as Tody then says, if you don't have that underlying analysis then you don't have ballast and you get blown around. and he's warning Andy Burnnamal Westreeting, not simply to say, I'm not Kir Stalmer. You've got to set out your big argument. and I think he's completely right on that. And the second thing is If you don't have an economy which grows and delivers rising prosperity Every other thing in politics is very, very hard to solve. And we've said this loads of times on this podcast the last two years, Kistm and Rachel Reeves have never set out an analysis of why over twenty years of British economy hasn't grown other than to say It was all the Tor's fault which means when the toys have gone What is their analysis? How do they explain what's going on now? It' become Donald Trump's fa But Tony is totally right to say you have to have big economic analysis, a big kind of divining of Britain's place and flaws in the world and that is absent. On those two big things, I totally agree with him. I think then His analysis is kind of incomplete. I think actually it feels quite out of date now To me, let's come to that in a minute, but on those two big things, he's right No, it's an absolutely withering criticism of the current labour government from a former Labour prime Minister. I mean he says We don't have a worked out, coherent plan for the country in a fast changing world and we are in the wrong political position from which we can devise one and win a second term. I mean, that is both a withering attack on the current policy of the government and the political positioning of the late budy. I mean he is not held back at all. And he's quite explicit in saying, it's not a problem with Kia's personality or a failure to communicate or need for certain more strongly labor values, is's that they don't have a plan. And I would say,, you have been a blairite on this Ed. I mean, you have been saying I've always been a blareright. I'm proud to be new labour however you've been saying this, you've been saying this about the Sammmer government since before the general election that they don't have a plan. They don't have and as you, you know, I'm not going to repeat what you just said, but know there's no analysis and there's no solution. So what about, let's stick with Tony Ber. what about his solution? Why do you say it's in your view, a bit outdated? Because he would say quite the reverse, I'm leaning into if you read the essay, which I would actually urge people who interest in British politics to do. You know, he's all about like AI is the new industrial revolution global, you know politics has changed and there's a G three of America or G two and a half, essentially of America and China and India So I think he would feel he's leaning very much into the future, but you said just now You thought it was a bit It old fashioned is analysis. or solution maybe So I don't think he is really taking on board tumult of the last twenty years and quite how challenging this is now for politics and for political leadership I think he's still stuck in a world which we were in when we were in government where you could assume that most labour voters voted labour and most conservative voters voted conservative and that you focused on the center ground Monday O Man. or Worcester womoman were who were centrist and they wanted government to sort out problems and they weren't particularly left or right, but that's what they wanted. And Tony still thinks that is the political task, but the problem is for labour and conservatives bases have been fracturing and turning away. It's a challenge for Kir Starmer or for the next Labour L leader to win labour voters across the spectrum, it's not simply about the centre ground. And that then I think goes to the analysis where I think he's incomplete It is true that there has been a huge squeeze on living standards for twenty years. It happened during a period when political leaders from the center ground, including Tony Blnd, Gordon Brown, and then you and David Cameron and Tsa May told people, we can turn this round And we didn't manage to. you didn't manage to. And therefore there is a distrust about centre ground or all politicians, but especially centre ground politicians saying we know the solution. because people think, where is it Then you say, well, people have not only seen their living standards squeezed But they've seen some people Get much richer And they think, well, hang on a sec That's not fair. Why are they getting a better deal me, the reason why you went after corporate tax evasion. The reason why you and David Cameron had popped sometimes at business is because people do feel as though While they've been squeezed, there have been some people the richer who have done better And that's why when Tony says, let us just stand back and let corporate AI and technology rule the roost and deregulate, people think, well, hang on a sec They're already the rich guys and by the way, I'm quite worried about my child's use of the internet and technology. They don't want a lesser fair free fraw when it comes to corporate power, but then this is the most important point Pe feel It's not only that the rich have got richer and I've seen my income squeeze, they also think, hang on a sec I'm paying into a welfare state. and But there's some people who are getting you know a free lunch and that's not fair I'm paying my taxes, but some people aren't paying their taxes and that's not fair. And you know there's immigration coming to our country. peopleople on small boats, young men coming here to take jobs That's not fair. And there' an argument about Well people feel as though it's not been fair and politics hasn't and he just doesn't address, it's not that he It doesn't talk about inequality He doesn't talk about fairness and there is a sense in Britain that hasn't been fair. And I think you have to understand that and respond to that. And I don't he even attempts to do so. When he basically says, you know Deregulate Government get out of the way, do what the Americans want. Cut taxes, cut welfare That will work for some Rachel Wolf said the right of centre commentator this was a very good right of centre manifesto. I'm not even sure the right of centre voter who is tempted to go from the toys to a form thinks This is enough because they want action to make things fairer as well, but a more labor orientated voter who thinks, I want a welfare state to protect the vulnerable, but not to be ripped off And I want people to come here are genuine asylum seekers but protect our borders. and I want growth and dynamism, but frankly I don't want to feel as though I'm manipulated by corporate global power. unless you have an answer to those things, you're not getting to the deep challenge to politics and Tony doesn't try to do that because in two thousand seven didn he didn't need to And you have to now Okay, I think that is all Very well said He would come back and I would come back to you and say, well, when has there been in Britain, a successful example of a kind of centre left labour government running a very sort of centre left economic policy. Surely the economic policy you ran under Tony Blair was center or center right that, you know, the things he says that labor should do now restore some form of nonom stata. so we bring wealthy foreigners back donon't increase the minimum wage above inflation Don't pursue net zero. it's going to lead to more expensive energy than elsewhere in the world curb your welfare bills. know I think you would agree with and And you know, he points to the only successfully re elected labor government since the Second World War was the Blair government And I think most people at the time, you will You know, maybe disagree with this. But I feel like Blair himself would say it and, you know, now disgraceed, but people like Mandelsome would say it which was We don't mind if people are getting really rich. We don't mind if people are making good in the city. We don't mind if these things happening because we're using the proceeds from this capitalist economy. to spend money on tax credits, to double the NHS budget, something Tony Brair has been saying in the last twenty four hours and so on. so What I haven't seen and I don't think Britain's seen is a sort of successful social democrat model of running the economy So the approach Tony Blair is saying to labor now is you've got to go back to new labour's kind of free market And then you can use the proceeds to pay for all your left wing progressive things Whereas you know, what's the alternative? when when when and where in the world is there a successful state interventionist model of running the economy the thing is, we introduced a national minimum wage, although we had a lower youth wage. And we had tax credits and reduced child poverty, but we said to people who should work and aren't working We will sanction your benefits. So it was rights and responsibilities, but that wasn't free market and neoliberal on competition but on the actual We war policy, you were, you know, you were you were fisc, you know, I would say until the later years, you know, you had your golden rules, you had your inflation targeting, indndependent Bank of England, you had your you've said before in this podcast, you know, aggressive competition policy and independent competition. know it was quite a sort of centrist or center and there was an alliance with entrepreneurs and business. You cut capital gain seax I think Tony Blair' saying, do all that again Yeahah but I'm in favor of doing all that again but you have to do it at a time when people feel thingsings aren't fair and you've got to tackle those unfairnesses. you've got to have a growing economy to be able to address I think your argument would be 't I'm not going speak you. Tony Bear's argument would be Yeah, okay, people feel unfair. The best solution is to get this economy growing Be realistic about Britain's role in the world. You know we can't run a kind of socialist experiment by ourselves And then you can use the proceeds to address these unfairnesses. There's not some new way of running the economy which is going to both grow the economy and deliver better sense of justice. That is, I think his argument and mine, by the way I think you have to make the argument for making the welfare state stronger and fairer and tackling abuse. You have to make the argument, if you are making a labour argument, that we do want people to genuinely come here to seek asylum, but we're not going to let our borders be abused. You have to make the argument that we want dynamism and investment And you as you know, I was always for cutting capital gains tax, but also there's got to be proper regulation, not just in the financial services, but of competition policy as well. Tony's argument on tech is to say, look, let's just get government out of the way. We can't be too European. By the way, he's right to say, you can't just rejoin the European Union. That's quite a change from his position from ten years ago, but he's right about that. His argument we should say is we've got to strength in our hand be able to have a negotiation about a structured relationship with the EU which may not be the same as the membership we used to have. And he's totally right about that, but he also says you can't get go down the European road because they're going to be too tough on tech And the reality is whether you are labour or conservative at the moment in Parliament, whether you're Kevy Benock or Kirstarmer, you are facing huge pressure from parents on left and right who think that what is happening to their children because of weakly regulated Tchnology damaging them. You can't just say That doesn't matter because we're going to put growth first and therefore let's just get out of the way and let tech run riot It's about finding a way to regulate it so you get the growth, but people see it's done in a fair way and which protects them. Tony doesn't even just doesn't address those think you would say they're peripheral, aren't they? mean they're peripheral to the central challenge, which is Britain is drifting into a sort of second tier or third tier status. The economy is flat. You've got to get the economy growing and you, you know, then you can, yes, sure the margins you can do social media bans for u to sixteen s. But that's not the main thing he's saying. He's saying You've got to embrace AI, the new industrial revolution. If we don't do that, And we regulate ourselves out of revolution,' going to become even more relevant Look, I I'm in favour of embracing AI, although it's not going to solve the problem of young people's mental health challenges at twenty one going on to welfare benefits or how we police our borders. But it's an important part of the solution. But people want things to be done in a way which is regulated and fair as well as dynamic and open and you have to find path there and I don't think Tony just attempts to address that. If you look at what's being said by Nigel Farge, Kemmy Baidnoock, K Starmer, Andy Burnham, across to Zach Polensky, they're all talking about fairness. They have different conceptions of fairness they have different views about the choices they're made, but they're all engaging with where voters are And Tony doesn't engage because he says none of them have a coherent economic plan. You know, Kemy Badenarks doesn't want any closer relationship with our main trading partner right and complains about every step labor takes to you know, have more sensible customs arrangements and the like You know, Zach Belansky he'd regard as a kind of coolbanistter you know, Farage he would be, you know, would have no time I mean then he has no time kid' right? I know. but I' my point about Logan Roy. they're all, they're not serious. That's his. Yeahep, but Logan Roy didn't have to be elected. Loy just ran a big institute based upon money from American tech and got appointed by Donald Trump to serve on the White House booard of peace. So where iss that Tony Blair? Tony Blair doesn't have to get elected. If you want to get elected in our country? Yes, you have to have a growth plan And if your policies damage growth, if you don't go after dynamism and flexibility, it will all fail But you can't win that argument by just saying to a narrow group of voters called Worcester Women, I know what I'm talking about. trust me I'm Tony Blair Let's get regulation out of the way and all of your other concerns are peripheral Actually that's not how people feel. So if we end up lurching to the right or the left in a crazy populist attempt to solve those fairness problems and damage growth in our economy. That is a catastrophe If you don't engage with people's concerns and just say, well they're second order and peripheral You can't you can't win and and that was like that was the star opportunity. He was the centrist figure. who had a large majority. As Tony Blair said, he should have got into government and said, actually, I'm now going to come clean with you all about the scale of the challenges and what my plan is. Instead, without any balance, ballast, he gets blown around week by week and we end up back in this situation where we're having a debate between populist and populist. Tony's right to say we need a growth plan But you've got to start with where we are in twenty twenty six, not where we were in two thousand six No, well, I think where you're completely right is that the Tony Blair that I faced, you know, I was an opposition politician And I was shhadow Chancellor when he was Prime Minister. so you know I stood a St stood up at the dispatch box and there he was sitting opposite me You know, he was a ruthless politician. There was a very good interview on the Today program where Nick Robinson anticipates what he's about to say. Let's just play this clip of the Today prorogram interview. We've got the agenda now. let's turn a little bit to the leadership and people might think listing this We know who advocates all this. It's Kemby Baitenoock,'s the leader of the Conservative Party. She says let's get rid of net zero targets. She says let's get rid of business taxes that are doing damage. She says pretty much everything you've just said You see, I'm not asking the question about Is it Tory? Is it reform? Is it greens? Is it labour? I'm just saying Okay. Take a step back, analyze the world, Where do we go And I don't really I think part of the problem with the way we have this debate is that it always does start and usually end with politics. You started a sentence there and you stped. I don't really. I thought you were going to say, I don't really care Well, was say I was going to say, I don't really care whether it's left or right in a traditional sense. You don't really care with it hiss labor anymore, do you? In that sense was the politics? I don't. So first of all, you know, credit to Nick Robinson for picking up on what Tony Blair didn't say but was about to say. And the Tony Blair I faced twenty years ago was a ruthless politician You know, he was he would kill anyone in his path politically And so he very much did care it was labour, so long as he was leading labour And he did get the Cs, right? And the charisma was very important and framing the political argument was very important. And I think he always struggled to articulate a philosophy or a set of values beyond that and came up with various things like the third way and so on, none of which worked and ended up with what you get in this essay, which is, well, I'm just whatever works, I'm for effective. goovernment But I think you make a fair point, which is, okay, Could you get elected on that platform? Today, it might be a governing platform where once you've got the economy growing, you can sort of spend money on other things So I think he's a bit is a bit dismissive of the politics. given he was in his day, one of the most effective politicians Brit's ever seen And then I thought on the solution I thought it's a bit thin the. I mean I think yes, Okay, let's get the internationally wealthy back. It's stupid to be driving them away and that was a kind of both a Sunak and starmer decision on non DomMs. I thought it was interesting. he says, you know, we should be increasing VAT rather than employment taxes which is a choice I made, but traditionally one that labor governments don't. They tend to go for the employment taxes But yeah, you know, I I remember when Jeremy Hayward proposed the AT on Greenfield homes rather than the National insurance drives in two thousand one and I've never seen Tony Blair go more white. and he just said, Thankk you, Jeremy We're going to raise n insurance. And that was that was the end of that one. I don't remember Tony Blair ever saying I would like to raise VAT at any point, but that's because he was trying to win elections Yeah No, I bet maybe that's, you know, the That's allowed for people who aren't trying to win elections to try and take the bigger view. But let's end on two things. First of all, we'll turn to his international critique of Britain's standing the world and how we should deal with Trump and so on in China. But why did he do this? And if you're Andy Burnham or you' Wes Streeting What are you thinking when you read this? Do you not care or do you go actually, there's a lot of home truth here D' you just think with Tody Blair and Gordon Brown and maybe with Rishy Sunak and John Major, you just feel their frustration See it not going well And I think like if only with everything I now know If only could I could do it all again I mean, you know Gordon Bown just got announced his Kar Star was addvisor on global finance. I mean Nhing would have wound Tony Blair up be You probably wrote five thousand two hundred of the five thousand five hundred words that Sunday. But you know there're all these former leaders competing because they're frustrated But I think what they're underestimating, or not all of them, I think what Tony Blair's underestimating is that It's actually really hard And, you know, you need somebody of it I would say a Ty Blair or Gordon Brown level of political skill to navigate through this. It's really hard and if you haven't got depth of intellect and communication and you know how to take people with you to win a big values and policy based argument. you've got no chance you get blown blown around and he will be seeing O people trying and not succeeding and thinking know, I could do a better job But that's for sure I agree I had to say I agree with almost every single word in the in the essay but those who know me well would I agree with lots of words in the essay, but I don't think I agreed with them the overall argument because as I said, I thought it was out of date and incomplete and not deliverable. I don't think I Andy Bern and West Street clearly very frustrated because they're thinking, you know Tody, you're not helping. It's so much harder and more complicated than you're giving the impression of And as I said, you know, I've heard Tony Blair ever since The earty two thousands telling us it's dead easy. but it's not No, although he did make it look quite easy when he was actually leading the lab body, as I know to my cost. mayaybe we should challenge Tony Blair to he definitely gets he definitely hears this podcast. I don't know if he listens to it, but I've had reports back from thingsings we've said on this podcast where he's had a view We should challenge him, what would he do as a kind of if you're putting together a political strategy for a labour leader? because he was also very good at that With a with a great teamy assembled. I will include you in that, but you know, Alistter Campbell and Mandelon back in the day and Philip Gould, you know, all that crew. I mean, it was and Gordon Brown, it was a very, very formidable. political team as well as a policy team. What it'd be good to it'd be good to hear You know, how do you actually win with this agenda or how do you win so that you can implement this agenda? Just finally on the international situation. I thought it was quite stark, wasn't it? His warning to Britain about American presidents, I'm going to claim that it's very similar to what I've been saying about Donald Trump, which is although his methods And his language is very grating for a lot of people and a lot of Europeans and Brits The truth is that he is this is a, you know, his he says It's really revealing what American presidents have always felt, which is they're the shot callers American power has been preeminent, and the European answer is not to complain about it, but to become more organized, more powerful, get themselves a stronger economy, and then they can play in the world, but until they do, they're just going to be price takers Look, of course he's right to say that Britain is diminished and that finding a way to be kind of outward looking and international a global brin I mean, that's a good phrase which Bars Johnson have tried to pinch, but we should have back. So he's right about that. Do think though that you know againgain Tony Blair, the prime mininister in twenty twenty six would be taking a very different approach. He has a popet Mark Carney about Albertzi in the essay. But the truth is on domestic He does call us a middle power interestingly. He both has a pop up cararney. uses Carne's language But he has a pulp. Because he thinks that the only strategy for Britain as a middle power is basically to cozy up to Donald Trump. And you know Tony Blair structurally is in that position at the moment in terms of the way in which he's pursuing his post political life. But as Pime Mister, he wouldn't be taking that approach because it would be impossible in this environment. and Kir Starmer tried it a year ago and has moved more towards the Albn Ey and Carney position. The thing which really struck me in in the essay and C course he's right power politics has become more important it is not Enough simply to say It's just big power politics I mean, nowhere in the essay does he talk about international institutions the rule of law the way in which countries work together. He says at one point We should just do whatever it takes to stop illegal immigration But I mean, what does he mean by that? Does he mean ripping up all of the treaties and international relations which would flow from that, I can't believe he He thinks that. We've just had a situation in which you know, in Turkey, the twenty year President Erdogan has basically locked up his presidential challenger and then through the courts strip the opposition leader of his leadership position in the opposition party, he's a big NATO ally politics is important But on the other hand, What about kind of the rule of law. and what about the way which we respect each othertherss Democracies and I mean Tony Blair twenty years ago would have been using leverage Donald Trump is not interested ony B bless is with if Donald Trumps not interested Maybe that's just all gone I just I don't believe that is a progressive vision for a twenty first century fall policy. And I don't think if he was in power, That's the approach you would take. However convenient it is to say it in an essay from the Tony Blowne Institute But I think Tony Blair twenty years ago was you do have to get very close to American presidents But he was also Britain can amplify its power through membership of the European Union, and if European nations, including Britain, don't club together We can talk all we like about the rule of law and you international treaties and international obligations, but we have no means of enforcing our will on the world and we're going to become increasingly ignored and irrelevant. I mean that's But he also used international alliances and the international rule of law and institutions to seek to leaver better outcomes, not worse outcomes in places around the world. He didn't say, you know, nobody's critical of It's just about power politics. He's very critical of the Sunak and Stalmer decision to abolish DIid and reduce Innational deevelopment assistance in his essay, for example. U Anyway, listen, we could Oh They could obviously talk about Tony Blair till cows come home And it sounds like, you know, he's not completely done, is he anybody who's going popping up L, I mean, I think the question I'm now looking forward to is the Do Rishy Senak, John Major and Gordon Brown try and do it in three thousand words Well I don't think Yeah, I mean, what do they go for seven withith old. respect to Ry and Gordon, they didn't actually win elections. and John Major did win an election in ' ninety two, but that was a long time ago Soguably Arguably in two thousand five, Gordon Brown and. Tony Blair came together to win an election, which Alista Campbell was pretty clear Tony Blair couldn't win on his own This is one of the reasons I wanted us to talk about this was I knew it would trigger all sorts of reactions like that in you And I'm delighted that it has Now listen, we're going to talk about one problem which Tony Byd did not solve when he was did any of the Tory governments, including the one I was part of And that is social care. But Andy Burnham has put it back on the political agenda and when he was health seecretary in the Brown Government, he did make an attempts of it. And we're going to talk briefly about social care. why it has proved such a difficult issue in British politics What are the risks for Andy Burnham if he makeakes social care? a big centrepiece of a bermanum miership Shipping, billing, admin, payroll, marketing. You're managing all the things. So why waste time sending important documents the old fashioned way? 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Spirits not sold in Virginia, North Carolina, drink responsibly, be twenty one So one of the things that Andy Bero Sove were he to be Why as explicit is that you certainly get his intent. the is the issue of social care and this has devils recent governments, Labour, Conservative coalition, It's one of those issues where you get the commentary and go, o, why can't our useless politicians solve this problem? And Burnham is the latest to step forward and say he can solve it. I say the latest, but T be fair to him He did at least put forward a plan When he was in the cabinet with you in twenty nine, ten But this is what he was saying just a couple of days ago. Yes, we need to change care. My dad is in a care home in this bora And I look at what the staff for him and it is humbling to watch what they do, the care that they have got for someone else's dad. It's unbelievable that they are working in a broken care system They are being exploited by that system on poverty pay, a system that puts profit before people. How can that be right? How can we run care in this country on that We need to change it so that it is provided on NHS terms and we have a social care system that supports the NHS because it is a strong frontline of defence that supports people every day. These are the things that I believe in So back when he was Health seecretary, he made exactly that argument. He said we needed alongside the National Health Service, a National care serervice. And at the moment Cat You know, it's partly run by local authorities, it's partly in the hands of Lots of private social care providers and care homes and the like. He was saying we needed a national care service to be paid for out of taxation and he floated the idea in it of getting a sort of inheritance tax levy to pay for it What did you think you were actually in the cabinet with him sitting alongside him back then What did you think of his argument then and now? Well, it didn't work in the election campaign in twenty ten. Let's come to that in a second. But In the debate we had in the government Be that I don't have these big arguments with number ten at the time I'd been very involved in social care when I was a junior treasury minister before going to education I said if you go to how you finance this first before you've won Big argument about what's going wrong in social care and the rising burden on families and the unfairness of it. If you don't win that big argument first And you simply make it about how we pay you'll lose the argument. And at the time I was arguing for John Brown style review, like we had in university fees, like we had with Oless on the Health Service back in two thousand one. And that isn't what Downing Street went for. That isn't what the Gordon Brown Pmership went for. and then rather late in the day And they alighted on Andy's plan And Andy's plan with the social care levy. In his mind, it was, let's tax people when they've died and provide the care free when they're alive and somehow you know taxing the dead would be better than taxing the the living and it wasn't hugely discussed in the cabinet. It was at the end of the government And then of course, when it came out in the election campaign You jumped straight in. and basically made this a death tax and We were looking back on your campaid ad in twenty ten. You got Coronation Street star. William who of course plays Ken Barlow to come out from behind the screen and appear in a Cervative attack ad in that election campaign. And this is what he said When it comes to residential care, the Conservatives have set out plans for a voluntary insurance scheme And that seems like a good idea It that people have the option to protect themselves against spending all their savings if they go into care. And They don't have the fear of losing their home On the other hand The government has said it is looking at a compulsory death tax of up to twenty thousand pounds to cover the costs of care I'm very worried about this I've looked at their reports And it is indeed one of the options they're looking at So William Roach was a constituent of mine when I was the MP up in Tant. and I was very friendly with him and he's great company. He has know, he's in the Guinness Book of Records. He has the longest continuing role in any television drama anywhere in the world, and he's now ninety four years old So if he's listening. Thank you William for helping me out there Yeah, look, it was right at the tail end of the Brown Government We had a general election coming And I think what the government did is exactly what You know it's quite often what governments who are about to lose do, which is they sort of they want to prove they've still got some petrol in the tank. They're still full of ideas. I remember John Major's government setting out a big plan to reform pensions and new labour very effectively saying, o yeah, well that's you, the Tories are going to abolish the state pension. And this was the kind of equivalent to that, which is a big argument about social care way too late in the Parliament just exposes the government to a an effective opposition attack. And And I think the kind of challenge here, will'll come on to the kind of broader issue of social care. but this was an essentially reviving inheritance tax as a kind of labor threat which we knew was very, very unpopular in the country. and we leap on it, absolutely. And effectively killed it off. But what about the kind of burnham argument which he's now going to attempt to revive by the sounds of it if he's the prrime minister in the next couple of months. Which is, you know, social care has been way too fragmented. It's a bit, I think he would argue it's a bit like the pre NHS healthcare system, which is some of it's in private hands, some of it's in local authority hands, some of it's in charity hands. We need need to you know we need to nationalize care. We need a national care service and it needs to effectively be paid for out of general taxation. He probably would back off inheritance saax, but Maybe he'd go for you know, national insurance or income tax or VAT Probably not VOT, but you would go something like that. Whichii is not so dissimilar from the kind of systems you get in some continental countries I think the Danger for Andy Burnham and the danger of this whole debate and you've sort of just done it there, you You start with the problem and move very quickly on to how you pay for it Unless you've actually established a consensus about what the problem really is and why we can't just carry on as we are And why it is so unfair then It never works. And you know if you don't do the consensus building first, you've not got a chance. You have What do think is the problem What is the because there are several arguments, areith there. One is that The burner argument there is you've got too many low paid people in the sector Second, there's an argument that people get very low quality if they can't afford you know, more expensive nursing homes. And then the sort of third argument, which is more of a conservative argument is People's savings are wiped out because they sort of lose the lottery of life and they get dimmentia or something that you know, lasts for a long time and absorbs all of their life savings they have to sell their homes. So there are several arguments about what's wrong with the current system say, I don't think that's a conservative argument I think that it's a legitimate argument. It's an argument you tried to address when you had the dill notot review, which is that if There was a randomness to whether you will be a person who could live at home until you die or whether suddenly you would need to have extremely expensive care In the same ways there's a randomness as to whether you will be somebody who will live your life sickness free or suddenly get cancer and need very expensive treatment. and we have a national health system which says if you're the unlucky one who needs the expensive treatment We all pull that risk and pay for it for you But in the case of social care, if you go the unlucky one, you lose all of your home and all of your life savings and And shouldn't that be either? insured by the state which is to make it free, or even if you don't do that to cap the costs to say that you only pay up to a certain amount. And that was an argument made Andrew deal not to you made by Boss Johnson in his reforms in twenty nineteen. That's only one part of it though, because it is also the case that this is a very mixed economy, fragile system with lots of small businesses who really struggle It's massively underfunded compared to health spending. Local authorities don't have the money to really provide the care. staff are underpaid, but also they don't have the kind of career paths you have in the national health service, I'm not sure that merging the whole of social care into the NHS is the right solution I don't think people will necessarily want that, but you need big and radical change and it's going to be expensive. and those fundamental unfairnesses which aren't addressed But the question is What do you do about it? Now Kirst Armer set up a review when he came into power It's being conducted by Louise Casey who made a speech a few weeks ago about how she saw this as the new beverage challenge. but She's not gonna be may sees herself as the new beverage I'm sure she does and I hope she Louise Casey does she's the sort of go to person for every government as far as I can see to do a review. But the timetable, you know I know that West Streety wanted this review to be done very fast and get on with reform. It was basically kicked into the long grass by numberum ten. who said, We don't want an interim report from Louise Cy for ages. let alone a final report. Can you just make this all go away? If you don't have the treasury and number ten behind it, it always fails, and let's be honest You didn't particularly like the Dilnot report and didn't want to spend billions of pounds on it so it got killed in Be it was yeah, the reason was that it's money that goes to In the case of Dil knnot I mean, it's perfect sort of you know, laudable aim, which is try and protect the savings of better off people You know, in a time of austerity that wasn't, we didn't have spare cash to suddenly throw at people who are you know, protect many hundreds of thousands of pounds of their savings. I understand that. but the problem with the D not review it was looking at one narrow part of the problem. Yes. But there' there's a bigger issue. but there's a bigger issue You have to have a big process to establish consensus. That wasn't what happened in two thousand nine Andrew Dilmot, who is a policy technocrat, wasn't the right person to lead that big movement. and by the way, if the treasury iss not in favor of it, it's never going to work. Theresa may pulled it out of the bag suddenly in the election campaign in twenty seventeen, and that was dubbed a death tax. this time, not by George Osbne, but by Jeremy Corbyn Aom a dementia tax. A dementia tax Yeah, by the way, it almost certainly it sort of did for her majority, didn't it? I mean, it absolutely had an electric effect in the campaign. Now whether it was the policy itself or it kind of exposed her weaknesses because she then flip flopped during the day once it was announced and got a poor reaction. But it's the same underlying point She was solving a problem which had not been properly understood and debated and consensus hadn't formed. Even twenty nineteen, Boris Johnson came out with his national insurance tax rise for social care, Him and Rishi Sudak and with some reforms, Dilnot style reforms, this time, it wasn't George Osborne or Jeremy Corbyn. It was Rachel Reeves who sought toill Pedw it by saying Labour would be against the national insurance rise for social care. But then of course it was killed off by Lis Truss's wildness and Jeremy Hunt then came in and ditched the policy.. I think the common thad it was actually the only it was the only thing that Richy soon out and Jeremy Hunt didn't reverse of the Liz Trust premership. They didn't return to Rishi Sunak's policy of a National Church rise as Chancellor. And actually, I think that was a mistake. That was a moment when you could have 've gone ahead with a national insurance rise to pay for the NHS and social care That's right, although it wasn't going to be enough but it was definitely step in the right direction And you know, I was always frustrated that Rachel Reeves was was killing because she was opposed to tax rises on working people, a national insurance rise, which we needed for social care. But the big point here is You have to win the big argument about why you need to act before you get onto the funding mechanism. And if I was Andy Burnham, this is my advice to him Don't jump straight to a levy or how you pay for it workor out how to establish a cross party consensus first. You can do it by having an individual like Wadembth who is not seen as party political. You could put together a group. the Aair turner was that kind of turn of a view on pensions was that kind of group. You could have a body you could ask Jeremy Hunt and Ed Davy and Emily Thorbury to form a group to advise, you go out there and try to win the big argument about why we need to act and then you then put to the country T the election process in what you hope is a cross party consensial way, a solution, a new challenge Kemy Bayennock or Nigel Farage to reject the substantive party consense your nature. If you jump straight to the tax rise you'll get blown away again because people won't know what the tackingis is for Okay. Everything you say is fair about process and how to win an argument and whatever Although I do think there's been no end of kind of reports on what's wrong with the social care system. I still think you've got to make a fundamental choice which no government has really wanted to make which is who is going to pay for this thing? Where is the money coming from? It can either come from general taxation, pay for a national service. In which case, yes lower income people are going to be paying for the care costs of higher income people in some cases, or you stop means testing it, which is sort of where we ended up today M. You have to say to people You know, I know you live in a million pound house and you're eighty five years old and you've got dementia, you're going to have to pay for it. You're going to have to sell that home And we're going to have to take some of that money because we're not taking it from general taxation. Those are the two choices on social care, where the money's go. It's either coming from individuals who've got money And there are all sorts of unfairnesses about that because What about the responsible person who saved compared to the neighbor who didn't save? and so on orr you take it from general taxation, in which case you're kind of increasing the size of the state. And I think Burnham You know, I would say to Andy Burnham You clearly believe in this thing. You've been talking about it for twenty years. You were the health secretaries. You're not a complete new arrival to the issue Make a big argument. makeake the big argument for a national insurance rise. I wouldn't do inheritance tax because I think it's very toxic. Do a national insurance rise to pay for a social care system? I don't know whether you have to nationalize all the care homes, in which case you end up being like nigh bevon in your stuffing gold down the mouths of the GPs as he had to to buy them out. But You know, essentially make your big argument. I agree lay the ground in the way you suggest. But essentially you have to take one of the choices. that I've set out that All governments, including the one I was part of, refused to take. Look, I don't Disagree with that. But I think you you have to get it in the right order you have to stop, you know A George Osborne, William Roach Jerry Corbyn, Rachel Reeves assault on your policy by building the What a great coalition the strongest case that you can By the way Kimbarla is the anyone who's really popular. I don't think you have to choose binary between either it's fully funded or It's simply everybody kind of has to pay loseer health. I think there was a legitimate argument D' an argument for a cat I think you have to take away the unfairness of of it being funded by local authorities with different rates in every part of the country. The reforms which were being put in place by Boss Johnson to manage costs and to regulate were good reforms and it was a pity that they got ditched. You've got to invest in the social care workforce. I think it's legitimate for people to make a contribution for that to be means tested. I don't think this would be a big tax rise. I'm not sure that's an argument' going to w but you have to persuade voters This is really important and that if we turn our way from fair solution then we will lead to greater unfairness, vulnerability and