Lessons from Past Prime Ministerial Departures

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Use code meal timeime for fifty percent off your first Wonder order, terms applies, see wonder. com slash new customer This is Political Currency with Ed Balls and George Osbourne So we are in Hawxtstord on a very, very stey Thursday morning Yes, I've just got off the Eurostar from Paris where it's even hotter and also they're breaking records with temperatures in Paris. But I have to say our new studio is nice and air conditioned, isn't it? I'm feeling kind of cooled down after my travels. It's even aggressively a conditioned, but that's because Ellie came in an hour early and said putut the air conditioning on high because we've got to keep Georges cool. Are you pro air conditioning or against it?ave you' noticed this debate though basasically It tellays where you are on the political spectrum, but this is a feature of French politics at the moment. Basically, the left say Turn all the air conditioning off and if it's too hot, people shouldn't go to the office And the right are saying, that's mad. All the workers should have air conditioning I want air conditioning, but it's very important it's powered by renewable energy. and that's what I'm defining.ot the Nor Sea. And very keen for it to be renewable Generally, I think cold is In fact, the right thing to do is sit in a car and drive out London, which is also bad for the environment. It's also been a steamy week in politics. and we've got loads of British politics to do today because it's so dominant but just before we do, just to mark a moment on the global stage Alan Greenspan was a Titan Um he was the the head of the the US Federal Reserve, the chair the O Markets Committee and he died this week aged one hundred And we've often talked in this program about obitaries and your legacy and securing the first paragraph of your obituary This is in The Fancial Times, Alan Greenspan the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair who dominated global markets in the late twentieth century only to see his legacy tarnished by the financial crash. died at the age of one hundred Whatever happens in life, this is a lesson for kiss armour for Tony Blair. in the end, you never escape from the fundamental truth. And that was the fundamental truth for Greenspan that he was the head of the Fed when the global financial system went into termmil Yes, I' used such a huge figure the early part of my political career. When I was Chancellor, every day I'd come into the treasury building which had been magnificently renovated. It was hugely controversial expensive at the time as all these big kind of government renovations and infrastructure projects are. But then when it's done, everyone goes, Oh, thank God, they've done that And you walk into this building and in the big atrium there was a Brass Plaqu that said This building has been opened by Alan Greenspan It was always, you know, he was present with me every day Now I don't know what he would make of u British politics at the moment. I suspect you would be have a kind of somewhat dim view of everything that's been going on. But we are going to cover that in this episode, aren't we? We're going to start with a conversation about who is Andy Burnham? because since we did our emergency podcast on Monday, it has become a dead cert that he is going to be the primeinister He's going to be the prime Mister on the seventeenth of July. We' been down to Parliament. you and I both know him in different ways over many years. We've been political contemporaries of him You were in the cabinet with him and a football team with him. I work with him in Manchester. So I think the central question at the moment is who is this guy who's about to be our Pime Minister then he will have as all new Prime Ministers have when they come in half with your Parliament a decision to make. And this is what faced Gordon Brown in two thousand seven. Tresa May twenty sixteen, do they have an early general election to secure a mandate There's been speculation about that in recent weeks and I think sensibly Andy Berham was trying to hose it down, but We're going to give him some advice actually should he do or at least what should he think about in making the decision about whether to go long wanted to go early? Yeah, and by the way, if anyone thinks that's not really a question at the moment, it is about to become a question in British politics, which is why you listen to this podcast so you can hear about what's coming next. And then finally we're going to reflect on our own memories of those sort of last days in Downing Street because of course there is still a Pime Minister in Downing Street, Kst Aarma It's only this week that he resigned. I know it feels like an age ago. We're just going to talk about what it is like in those final A couple of weeks, most prime miniss don't experience this because they lose at a general election Well I say most, quite a few don't experience it Quite a few do know. they know when their sentence is coming and they sit in their cell waiting for it to be executed. So we're going to talk about the final days in Downing Street and what a prime Mister can do were those last moments in the highest office. Whether K Stalmer wants any advice from us, I highly doubt, but we'll give it to him anyway. As we always do I'm going to be a little bit im mododest here and say that if Kearammer paid attention to our podcast And I won't even speak about the things I was saying, but the things you were saying, including before his general election victory I don't think you'd be on the way out That's my personal view. U now Let's start with Andy Berham though. It's been a hell of a week. he's returned back up north having arrived on the train at the beginning of the week with a sort of parting wink at Kemmy Badenock who had a go at him in Prime Mister's questions for wearing black t shirts and having big eyebrows. and he posted a kind of funny thing on X saying actually they're dark blue t shirts and then essentially got of winking at her or raising his eyebrows at her. But let' just let's get everyone in the mood by reminding everyone the kind of key moment of the week, which was not so much the Prime Minister announcing his resignation But the new MP for Makerfield taking the oath of office before the spepeaker in Parliament I swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to His Majesty King Charles, his heirs and successors according to law So help me God S So for for those you who on earth Parliament was talking about there, right at the end. an MP heckled. He's not the Messiah. Andy Burnham himself said Naughty boy and that is from the life of Brian the Monte Python movie. And if you think this is all too retro, Andy Burnham himself has been talking about Z cars, which was a a very famous TV show in the nineteen sixties set in the part of the world that he comes from. So it's all been a bit retro and I thought he showed you know, quite a relaxed touch there that he could respond to a heckler while doing the swearing in. I mean quite opposite from some of the wooden performances we've had at the dispatch box. Look his social media is good and he's using kind of film clips and on socials in a very kind of modern and I think effective way. Of course, you know, this is a huge challenge not just for Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister but also for the impressionists of the nation because if you're a political impressionist Rory Prebna or Matt Ford And then suddenly There's this new guy who if you can't do him well, then your act kind of collapses and for Mat Ford has got an Edinburgh show I've got four weeks to sort this out. This is Matt Ford explaining this week he's trying to mimic Andy Burham Okay, here's a quick guide to doing an u burdom impression. It's quite a gentle voice so Dial back on the scals a little bit, middle of the skull and Quite softly spoken, bit easily, but not too much and As he goes along, you'll ask himself questions, won't he? And you'll notice that a lot. won't you when it can sound quite consensual because trying to bring people into the conversation, isn't people? it can also sound a little bit unsure or uncertain Can't it So look out for that, black shirts, glasses and then pivot very quickly from levity to seriousness. Look Nothing I love more than Going down the hill Dicky with the lads and you know, having a few beers and seeeeing the toffies and then getting the key bad but in all series, Mr. Viran, don't stop what they're doing We will launch a nuclear attack the key thing about it in ress So this is true of imppressionists or cartoons is you have to kind of get to the heart of the caricature and then make it even more extreme that's how it works. And there's lots of kind of caricatures about Andy Berham at the moment. you know he's a guy who flip flops He's a guy who's desperate to be loved. He's a guy who flashes his eyelashes at every opportunity. And let's be honest, we've all in politics when we were there changed our views on things And we all want to be loved whether that's aybe in the house of Commons or at the Olympics Stadium And also we all if we can every now and flash our eyelids mistake of you were trying to flash your eyelids It should be your eyebrow It's your eyeelashes and your eyebrows That's where you' been going along all these ls. are on your lids Listen, can we start? I'm actually praping at the moment. I think I'm doing both. Let me start, I'm going to start with asking you a question. because we're about to get into him and his maidens speech and what he was like is we came in in the same year into Parliament And he was obviously a political contemporary hse, but you crucially play football with him. And obviously the nation's not remotely interested in what's actually going on in Westminster this week byite our best efforts. So interestnterested in the travails of the England and Scotland football teams What was he like as a player? Just explain you played with him in the kind of labour MPs team that used to play the media at conferences. We were both strikers, is that right? We were the twin strikers. We have played together. The Mess and Ronaldo of our generation. Yeah, it was sort of more, it's more It's more Malcolm McDonald than Alan Shearer although they're from different areas playing for Newcastle. But I've played with him loads of times and normally at that Sunday game beginning of the Labour conference, but in other matches as well, charity games we played L look the caricature about Andy is that u, you know, playing up front with him, you know, It was always quite hard to get him into passass ball. and I never quite knew where he was going to be on the pitch because sometimes he drifted left and sometimes he drifted to the right wing. The truth was though, he actually was a good. person to play with. and he puts the ball in the n puts the ball in the back of the net. There's been a clip around all week I think it's twenty twelve and I think it's Clive Bet commentor from the back and Toby Akib has got a really long kick then E you really did well timed his header fl And the balls kicked out and I go up nod the ball on with the head. Andy Berham runs through and scores. I then look this up. It turns out we actually won three nil that day. Andy scored one I scored two No come up you know kind of w upmanship there, but I actually did score more than him on that partular on that particular occasion. And he you know just waited for the right moment and ran onto it and really finished brilliantly down in the corner We actually played a match a big anniversary the parliamentary lobby versus former MPs a couple of years ago at PR I arranged it. And we lost the game, but there was a penalty at the end ick the Is This is where they're wearing political curren st Wh they're wearing political currency strip, which we sponsored yeah. and I picked the ball up because I was sort of the capt of the te at least I'd organized it And I thought to myself Who wants to score most on this team So I just gave the ball to Ey. and he put the penalty away. And you know in the end, he delivers. Okayess, so here's a question for you Because I the reason I ask you about the football is not just because it's kind of amusing He's a striker and he wants to score and he wants to be the center of attention. But I'm going to ask, I don't think it was obvious to me in two thousand one. know I came into Parliament the same year as him. There were a lot more Labour MPs than there were conserveative MPs at that time. And it was the beginning of the moment when the Blair and Brown advisers were starting to come into Parliament in their own right. And you you were you didn't come in dido until two thousand five with Ed Millibad, but Andy Burnham, David Milliband People have been in the kind of backroom of the new Labour victory in ' ninety seven, were starting to get themselves elected Barliament And he definitely, you know, we knew about him. He'd been a special advisor to Tessa Zao He was a known character, but I'm not sure I would have said there and then. Andy Burnham is going to be the one of this generation of labour politicos who makes it to number ten You know, I think at the time, most people would have said David Milliband actuallyctually And then, you know, people when you came in, they were thought, well Ebel's probably going to be the chancellor at some point and maybe be Prime Ministers. To be honest with me, G looking back to that period, you know him really well Was anyone saying the one who's going to make it from our generation into number ten? Is Andy? No, not in two thousand one. Um I think Andy is done dogged consistency is stay on a steadily upward rising trajectory throughout that whole period And I think that the caricatures are just don't understand who he really is. back in two thousand one He shares an office with James Pennell James Pinnell The guy who tried to force Gordon Brown out in two thousand nine. Yeah, he resigned from the cabinet after local election results saying the public spending cuts, you know needed to be bigger David Milliban doesn't join in and the whole thing Peters out. seen at the time to be you the arch Blair right? The guy who Andy Berham has just decided to bring back as his chief of staff. Let's come back to that in a moment If you look at Andy Burnnam's Maiden speech in two thousand one, Is it the maiden speech of an Ach Blairwright? He actually talks about The huge challenges in Lee, his constituency on the edge of Greater Manchester, But overlaps now in Makefield, doesn't it? Its part of his oldity is his newity Yeah. The loss of manufacturing jobs. The fact that globalisation has treated people badly, the Westminister has let them down and what he wants as a member of Parliament to deliver for the people of that constituency the jobs and the prosperity and the hope and pride that they've lost and politics isn't given them. It's very, very consistent. with the Andy Burnham of twenty twenty six or the Manchesterism of his last ten years as mayor, which we've about And so it's interesting in the same way when you go to twenty ten and he stands for the leadership. His slogan is aspirational socialism The biggest contribution Where he come in that leadership contest? That's the one Ed Milliban beats Daysfood. he comes fourth he doesn't I came third. He does a bit ye, it's not a first or second. So both Andy and I didn't win that leadership relationship. But you beat Andy,? Well in that little microcosm of contest I won, but Andy probably will never forgive me for that. But the biggest contribution is to argue really strongly as I did actually in that contest against migration. We've seen in the previous few years very critical of Tony Blair In particular this is in migration is long before Brexit. long before it I actually think, I mean, the interesting thing about two thousand seven moment when J and then two thousand nine when James Poneell is kind of is forcing that that issue with Gordon Grround Andy Burnnet never takes sides He never wants to be seen as a blareite or a brownite. He doesn't want to be a factional figure The conversation I had with him I thinkinking back on this when he was Culture and Health Secretary. On the one hand, look, we did an amazing visit at the Tourv it about youth services where we went to adventure P playgide in to South London All these camas there. and I want me on slaughter swings. I just said to Andy. look at those swings. And he said, shhall we? He Yes So we just got on them. The press offers were going bonkers and we enjoyed it so much. We then got off, we then got on again He was always up for it. He always he kept coming to me and saying Got to promote free swimming for all G's improved his communications device It' a brilliant photo for upcoming young ministers. and free swimming. Now, you know, I remember at the time I'm thinking is that really the big issue facing the nation? On the other hand, it was like a retail issue. Maybe it was promoting preventative health. He always had his eye on catchy thing The key thing was he goes to at Anfield to deliver that powerowerful speech powerful speech. Almost at the beginning of his speech At the Hillsborough anniversary, he's booed boo because he's delivering a message from the government, which they don't like about A lack of accountability, not having an independent inquiry and he is both mortified by that. I think it changes his whole view politically He does the whole speech and he stands there and he takes the booze and he says, I understand. And I'm with you, even as I deliver this difficult message And I think that was you know, a hugely brave brave thing to do, the way he did that. I remember at the time somebody said to me G I could be P prime Mis So I think I think that as decade was going on, he was he was emerging And he comes second does he in the twenty fifteen leadership contest to Jeremy Corbn. He does, but listen, here's another fascinating reflection. Nobody will remember this, I'm sure Andy was the Shadow Health Secretary U Ed Milliliband. We never had ord and you we didn't think we on everything, and he probably wanted to spend more than I thought we could afford. But we never did an argument. We were good colleagues. We played football a lot together, came to visit me in our home with his family, but then after the twenty fifteen election, he in the early weeks led the charge that Edvill Aband and I had been unwilling oppose the scale of public spending cuts which were needed, you know, it was like we should have signed up to You know, a lesster version of George Osborne's austerity. What's wrong with that? Well, A, there's a very good article by Nick Cleig in the FT this week defending austerity. Yeah, it was a ridiculous argument I mean, that what, what a flaky article that was. comeome on Dick, you got to do better than that frankly. Let's put that to one side. That's what we're talking about. The point is that Andy Burnham, the lefty caricature blown out of the water by what he did in twenty fifteen. Look I don't think he was right at all and he had to then shift very quickly because of course Jeremy Corbyn from the left blew him andvette and everybody out of the water, he ends up losing that leadership election. But the idea of Andy Burnham, Tougher immigration calling at that time for tough decisions of public spending But at the same time ational socialist who thinks globalisation is harming his constituents. This is more compated he doesn't either fit into the caricature of the sort of intellectual London lety M The right. B' right The right black eyes would never have used the word socialism Would No, indeed. though I think he's now started calling himself social Democrats. I mean actually is he a brownout or a blairright? I mean, maybe it doesn't matter anymore these days. but I was thinking just before we did the show Well, whose camp was he in back then when it did matter Was he in everyone's camp? He was I don't think Andy ever wanted to choose I think he's always wanted to be in the center And I think that was the case in twenty ten and case in twenty fifteen. And what happens sometimes in politics is when Things are uncertain and unstable. You know, moving from Harriet Harman advocating welfare cuts to Jeremy Corbyn B leader Labour P party andy was his shadow homeome secretary for the first year. He stayed in the shhadow Cabinet when many others refuse serve the problem about wanting to be a uning figure in Kirst Arm was also in a show cabinet. I mean,'s lesson there, isn't it Well, there' the lesson because the point is if you want to be the uniting figure when the center of the equilibrium was shifting around could end up with you looking like you shift around quite a bit as well. And that's something you know which I think has done him a little bit of harm. Right now he's got to decide if he's going to be the center What is the center he's going to choose? No, I think the shapeshifting is part of surviving in politics.actly twenty thirty years isn't? Sometimes he did it a bit crudely, but everybody has to do it No And the Manchester morality is when he really kind of steps up and starts to own the front of the stage, even if you had always wanted to be on the front of the stage. Suddly, It's him, his personality, albeit on a much smaller stage than the national one You know, as I knew him in Parliament, I knew him when he was a cabinet minister and I was a shadow cabinet minister and vice versa But I did really kind of get that obviously I was instrumental with the Labour leadership in Manchester creating the morality. They were very suspicious of Andy Burnham as a candidate. That's not who they wanted. They really wanted someone from their own kind of council leadership But he had the national profile. They didn't really want a marare at all. They didn't want a marare at all. Especially a high profile one Yes, they did exactly. I mean, I essentially insisted on having a mayor And then Andy Bernam was the big character who'd been in the cabinet, who was a greater Manchester MP even if he was, you know, came from Merseyside originally There's a really good it's the second time I'm going to mention her in in the last few weeks and she's Jennifer Williams, who was the correspondent for the Manchester Eing News for most of the time I was an MP. Now at the Fancial Times. Now at the Financial Times has written a really, really good piece this It's a long piece. It's an essay on basically Burnham's time in Manchester and what you can learen from it I thought it was, you know, basically spot on It speaks to his strengths. that he's very personable. He likes people. because a lot of politicians don't actually like. people very much they have to put on a show Whereas he you can tell, he's sort of genuine in kind of engaging with people He's very good at storytelling and creating a narrative and finding the essential points you need to go. Those are all vital things which this government's been are we desperately need to which we've been saying on this podcast that you know, the government doesn't have a story to tell for the last two years All of those are enormous strengths. and I thought there was a really interesting point which you have already mentioned, but she mentions in her column, which is in all of these years of being a reporter Manchester, Anddy Burnham never or his people never briefed against Ediew He never played that game, which you know there's a lot of it going on at the moment in the cabinet Those are all these kind of straights and I would say dealing with him both as Chancellor and then as a local MP briefly and then as chair of the Northern Power Pouse partnership which I created off leaving offffice. You know, he always engaged with it and when we I remember we had an away day essentially in Yorkshire, not in Manchester. And he came all the way to take part in the away dayay and engage in it as mayayor of Manchester He also is prepared to be unpartisan when necessary. you know, of different political hiewues. and I've always had kind a good friendly relationship with him. But if you look at the Jennifer Williams piece It also tells you something else, which is For example, he's he's against. decentralizing NHS control to Manchester and then he's in favor of it. He says he's going to end rough sleeping in Manchester as one of his big pledges. I'm going to abolish rough sleeping homelessness in Manchester by twenty twenty Today as he stops being there, it's at the levels it was when he became M. so he's not achieved anything in that speace really He says he's going to prioritize social housing. And then that doesn't materialize. He He doesn't engage with problems in the Greater Manchester Police, which he's actually the chair of the police authority and theyester. These are all in the Jennifer Williams piece and And so there's a, you know, there is a kind of case against him, which is it's when things are easy And there are simple choices to be made and you have to be the front man and you have to do the tough. You know Standing in front of the Hillsborough victims families or that awful moment when the bombing happened at the Manchter Arena, you know he united the city And he has worked with the local Labour leadership there to deliver in Manchester, as we've talked about before But when it's hard and difficult and people need to hear messages they don't necessarily want to hear, he sometimes backs away from it. Now sometimes the most successful politicians do that you know, if you look through our history I would say there's kind of central challenges In Manchester, he inherited a plan. his labour colleagues and I would argue. the Cervative government or the coalition govern The trouble is now he's not inheriting a plan He's walking into essentially a broken government which has ejected its prrime Mister despite having a huge majority after just two years. Does he have the capacity or has he got people around him with the capacity come up with his own plag. So I'm not sure Andy Burnham has ever done that yet in his career. whichich is why being Manchester Mayor was such a great job for him because he didn't have to make difficult choices which people would have to pay for in their taxes.'t have didn't have enough discretion. was it was a communication leadership But look, I think you are right. And if you think about Kir Starmer's difficulties in the last couple of years on the thingsings where Andy Burnham can deliver a uniting, galvanizing message He has the skills to do that and on the economy is so desperately needed. but I would say on the National Health Service, on jobs for young people, maybe on foreign policy around how he handles Donald Trump in the Middle East. You can see how he can do this in a way which is uniting for the government and maybe more broadly in the country. but There's going to be issues around Europe or welfare reform or migration and the Shabala Mahood reforms, climate change maybe too Well actually he's going to have to make some choices And he's going to have to lead when it's going to be contentious And He's going to have to lead in a consistent way in the way that Kistarma has just failed to do in the last two years. and that is something which He has less experience doing in front line politics where you've got the levers But that is I have to say, I think bringing James Pnell back is a good move from his point of view. James Penneell is not going to come back You know, he's been at the BBC been a the vice Chancellor of a University in London, London University of the Arts. He's now running Flint Global. He's not coming back. That's an advisory firm, isn't there? Big advisory firm. He's not coming back because he is sort of um He needs the profile. he's coming back because he wants to do a serious job And he's also somebody who has a track record of being willing to make tough decisions on welfare public spending And I've played Fither sideide Football with James Panll every week for the last six years. I know him really well I think he's very I think he's a more thoughtful, reflective, rounded person than all of us were when we were in our thirties into our early forties, but he's a good person for Andy Berard to be bring in to do this job, but theyre have to make you know, they can have to make some big choices and some controversial choices And can Andy do a look which, by the way, the most important is what he's on tax. We should probably come to that. But just on that point first, can Andy Burnham lead when it's divisive and challenging No, I think James is a really excellent appointment because he it's quite rare to find someone who Has all the experience to do the chief of staff job, has seen it and done it So they're not kind of brand new. Downing Street and to Westminster while but also has the personal relationship the prrime Minister, so they're not just some new high know Dominant Cummings had no relationship to Boris Johnson. Sue Grey barely knew Kir Starmer you know, to pretty spectacically unsuccessful chiefs of staff appointment from the view of the Prime Minister. He has less economic track record, James ve talked in the past about how important that is, but on media politics, communication, the personal relationship you've been essentially the chief of staff. We've talked about Joere Haywward, the importance of the Chief of Staff. We've talked about the challenges at Kirst Star and Golden brrown had finding the right person to be the chief of staff And James Pinenell feels like a good choice to me. What about you know, we could obviously spend the whole show tal talkks speculating about the cabinet and so on. but It does seem to be the key appointment is this Chancellor I mean, there is no prospect of Rachel Reeves staying on. I don't know what She's not being well served I like Rachel. so this is meant genuinely and I found myself in a not totally dissimilar situation a decade ago Right, She should just say I'm stepping down as Chancellor and of course, I'm ready to serve in any other role, but I think I should go with Kisama. She should not allow herself to be in this position where she's going to get fired as Chancellor and that he can't possibly hold on to her. His whole campaign is about change and what Labour has done wrong and she has been instrumental in some of the decisions that have cause these problems. ultimately the responsibility of the first Lord of Treasury Kiss Amour. So Who if assuming it's not And if I were her, I would take a junior cabinet job and not be you know, too grand about it But what about you know the kind of runners and riders are Ed Midb, He's attracted to all the headlines of the Where Streeting, who's folded into the Burnham campaign and Shabana Mahud. I mean, they seem to be the I mean obviously it could be someone else, but who Of those three, where do you think the smart money is? Well, I think as with the chief of staff, with the chancellor You should start not with the names, but start with what you need in the job. What is the challenge And by the way, look the biggest challenge Andy Byham is going to face is he's letting expectations rise, he wants to spend More on defence The economic policy needs more investment in infrastructure. The fiscal position this autumn is going to be worse. He's boxed in by a set of manifesto commitments on tax. Let's be honest, there isn't a big pot of money outside those manifesto commitments to find the resources Does he go for an early election? Does he break the manifesto, or does he play it long and deal with, you know disappointment, this is a hugely difficult challenge. but in terms of the chancellor job, the person has to deliver that for him He wants somebody who knows the economics and who can think creatively about growth You need somebody who can have credibility with the markets of the fiscal challenge. you want somebody who deeply understands Manchesterism And you the challenge of driving growth in the regions He needs somebody who can communicate better than we've seen And he also needs somebody who he can work with closely who's going to be you know, an ally and he will probably think, I mean, by the way, I think mistakenly that, you know The Osborne Cameron relationship is the best relationship. I've always thought you need some challenge and grit in that, but he will think you need somebody you can work with closely. And the nature of politics is always this. There is never anybody who ticks all the boxes. West Streeting is clearly a great communicator. And he made a very good economic speech Very good, but He's not a deeply an economist Does he have credibility with the markets? Does Any Berhin really trust Wes to be his guy? Shabana no economic track record at all She doesn't like doing communication. I mean, she doesn't like to come on breakfast television or I mean, she's good in the house of Commons. She doesn't do much of that But I think it should be as a figure, Ed Milliband knows the treasury, knows the Manchester model, But Is he somebody who will be credible with the markets? Does Andy really trust that they I think Andy all the things I hear is that that relationship is close and Andy does trust Ed Milliband to work in partnership, but there's still questions about whether Ed is the right person because of the market challenge. although I think It's likely that that's the road he will he will go. I mean it' likely. No you know I have actually much more time for Ed Milliban than some of my conservative former conservative colleagues do. Look on climate change he winds people up, but he knows the treasury and he knows the importance of fiscal credibility. The idea he is going to go play fast and loose with that. In twenty fifteen he didn't with me because we both agreed we weren't going to. No, and I think you know a lot of people don't like his policy, but he's been one of the most effective cabinet ministers at actually delivering a policy and sticking to it and try to be consistent and get across a message about what he's up to I think the kind of challenge for him is two for. One is he comes as the former leader of the late buddy. so he comes with a lot of baggage And um You know, that is you know, a big issue You know, your Chancellor is a former leader they b. Second, you know, just look at all the headlines. he starts with the whole of the kind of center right press and right wing press and, you know, being against him. And the inflexibility on the green the flip side of being been consistent on Greeners he's been utterly inflexible and not helped Kestara And even when there was a scheme to maybe use money in the North Sea to help sold the defence funding that he refused to budge He. You need your chancellor to be really helping you, not just helping themselves I hope Pvet's in the mix. I mean,' the foreign secret. She was the chief seecretary to the Treasury So she's obviously very experienced, not expecting you to comment on that although. Well she look, she has a masters in economics she knows the treasury She was Andy's opponent in twenty fifteen But you know Andy is not steeped in foreign policy and the foreign policy situation at the moment is as dangerous as has ever been. so I mean who knows what he'll decide to do? We did have a reminder last night Donald Trump already having a swiper Dddy Burn. I mean, that is going to be an unbelievably tricky relationship. It's all very well to say, you know, put two fingers up to the American president. that is not That is not an easy thing. you know, for the British Prime Minister you have to be very, very careful. to go down that route Anyway, we will see I think if it was me, I'd choose either West Streeting or maybe Shivana and Ed Midilliban, but I'd have Ed Midibaban as a kind of key ig in my government, sort of anchor figure A a bit likeilliam Hue was anch figure in the kind of camera operation. Andy Burnham doesn't need to choose West Street for reasons of political balance. He'll only choose him if he thinks actually he'll do the best job. You do need someone who's going to help you govern and win that election and so on. We're going to come on and talk about the whether there's going to be an early election What I just want to ask about the five tests Not the not the Euro five test, the Al Kharnes five test. Al Khnes We've been talking about him on this show. I'd never even heard of him until it. mention him few I say to you, he might be a leadership contentnder. Right. And he's still he's in the mix. He's still flirting with it, it seems. Anyway, he's the junior defence minister who was himself a you know, brave soldier who resigned at the same time as John Healley. and now he's published his own five tests of who he will support in a leadership contest. There's not at the moment. there is a front runner if you can put it. Anyway, he's got these five tests, which all the things like keep the light on test or the ten percent. They're all. He's gonna add a trillion trillion pounds to the economy the economy. He's going to get defence spending up Yeah. He's got a fine ten percent efficiency he's overplaying his hand a bit Al can. I thought enjoying his moment in the It's very hot sunshine. Tble us youve hang out in the this sunshine for too long politics get burnnt. If I was Al Kant, I' think I've got nothing to lose and you know go out there, see if you can get the nominations. You know, you can stay until the sixteenth of july and see whether he gets the eighty one. I think the thing which actually is rather striky about these five tests is that there was no politics in them at all. I mean there was no values. in no sense was the labour tests. I mean, these could have been a senior conservative or reformed person putting those tests out. I slightly read them and thought to myself, arere these the tests? where Al is going to you decide whether or not he actually supports the next Prime Minister rather than his own manifesto. So you know, I just wonder what this all reason where it's going. By the way, you on Monday, we speculated about whether Al Kns Also Dan Jones, the Chief Secretary. the Prime Minister would get into this race. I don't know wh if you've heard the news. I think this is actually an announcement I just see that Darren Jones has now announced that he's not going to be play centre forward for England against Panama on Saturday night. He's spoken to Harryane. He's been reassured by Harricanaine that the miss in the last game was a one off. And on that basis he's not going to put his name forward it to be said toeord, I think, you know, Harry Caye and all the Englandy will be relieved that there willll be stability. I'm looking forward to his TikTok video explaining the offside rule Now we are going to be Aaron Jones, I love him. He'll be in the next cabinet. Yes. Good on him, but he's not going be the Pime Minister and I'll be surprised if he's a chancellan Yes Maybe the Duchy of Lancaster. Yeah have Johnny Reynolds. ye Very close to Jace Pinenell moved out by Kirst Stara to be the chief whip I saw him yesterday I wasn' s seeing the speaker withith Erica Pickles, Lord Pickles about him the Holocaust Memorial. I saw Johnynolds the way out. He used to work for Jes Pinenell move to be Chief Whip bruisingly, I think Johnny Reynolds is good and will end up playing a bigger role than some others in this government watch that space. Okay. Now listen, we are going to turn next to the question to all new prrime Misters who take office inide Parliament? face which is are you going to have an early general election And that is going to be the question. after Andy Burnham gets into number ten Downing Street. so we're going to tackle it after this Ihing Still waiting in line? Again That's time you'll never get back. Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot comot Join them to save up to ninety percent off carrier rates from your computer or phone right now. Print postage for certified mail, registered mail and packages in seconds, then schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps dot com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift Tasses and fees apply. Everyone treats summer like it owes you happiness, long days, pool parties, your best life on a loop. So what does it mean when you feel worse? The summer blues are real. It's why summer is one of the busiest stretches of the year for people starting therapy. Grow Thrapy is here for all the moments when you decide you want more M support, more clarity, more tools. GroO connects you with thousands of high quality licensed therapists across the US, offering both virtual and in person sessions, nights and weekends. The therapist you want takes your insurance on G. Gro accepts over one hundred twenty five insurance plans. Sessions average twenty one dollars with insurance and some pay as little as zero dollars depending on their plan Visit growthapy d. com slash ACast today to get started. That's growthapy dot com slash Acast growthapy d. com slash Acast Availability and coverage vary by state and insurance plans Welcome back Some of you who are fans of this podcast would have listened to our inside the room episodes on The two thousand seven election that never was. This was some months after Gordon Brown became Prime Mister in the summer of two thousand seven He got off to a really strong start so that by the time he got to the Labour Cerence in Aaltum, there was huge speculation that he would call an early election And we were looking through, you know, the Cversations were happening behind the scenes and how the opposition were thinking about things. We did this episode with Andy Colson, who was the Tory Coms director, Andy Maah, who got the scoop that there wasn't going to be an election The person I want you to listen to now is Deborah Mattinson, who was Labour's pollster at the time And this is a very interesting insight into the kind of issue facing a prime Minister and that question of whether to have an early election One thing that's worth saying is I had got some of the people in my team to do some analysis of looking at new prime ministers into the role and particularly looking at transitional prime ministers, I ones who'd come from ones who hadn't won the job in an election And it was really clear Three months in tended to be as good as it got with your poll ratings. That was as good as it got. So I think that's a really key piece of information. Obviously, history doesn't always repeat itself but usually new prime ministers Things don't get better for them the longer they stay in said about three months in and already there's loads of things about how Andy's going to do different things differently from Kiss Aarm and he can communicate and he's going to have a Downing Street in Manchester as well as in London and all this kind of buuzz you get But three months in the reality of governing hits you And There's then this question of should you go for the early election and usually prrime Misters shy away from it? Not always. Theressa May did have an ear election and it was a disaster for her. She lost the Tories' overall majority in the end that was the beginning of the end of her preremiership Boris Johnson did call an early election and won a huge majority. Although he was later rejected by his own party, you know that was a very successful example of calling an early election And then Rishi Sunak didn't have an early election hoping that things were going to get better, but actually his ratings after about three or four months really started to slide and he became Ver unpopular only to be you know tromped eventually by Kiss armor in terms of unpopularity So this kind of question, if Andy Benon gets off to a good start Obviously if he doesn't kind as a bit mute the question, but let's imagine things go well And you get to the autumn, the Labour conference is good. maybe the Tories are struggling to land blows on him Can you resist the pressure to have an early gener reaction What do you think First of all The lessons from Gordon Brown is if you don't know the answer to that question, do not let the speculation run out of control. And I think there was a danger of that a few weeks ago and they've been hosing it down, but they're going to have to come back to this again, as you say Andy B Burnham has a honeymoon. Tresa may did hose it down Th then had the E election it didn't work for her. Gordon Brown didn't hose it down and ended up being forced into having an ear election even though he didn't want one. and I think he was right not to want one, but the time he didn't call it, he had to have one. so got himself into a terrible mess three tests, first test If you have the early election Are you going to end up in a better place than you are today Andy Burnham currently when becomes Prime minister has got a big majority. Yeah. What is the chance of his majority going up I would say zero. Yeah. He's going end up with a smaller majority, but he may have more years and he may be able to claim a mandate. So yeah you know, he goes back to potenti having five years. and he can write his manifesto. That's right. And he has a mandate. So it's not just about the size of the majority secondcond thing is doesn't go for the other election Do things get better or worse The danger for Andy Burndham is that there's disappointed expectations. somethingomething happens which goes wrong. On the other hand desperately needs the economy to improve and it might But you think of the political situation, we had Njl Farraage on Good Morning Britain this week, he was then on BBC brereakfast and other outlets. mean Nigel Farge is in a real mess on this five million donation. Currently being investigated by the parliamentary authorities, he didn't seem to be in happy place At the moment in Makerfield, Andy Burnham succeeded in saying to Green, Libdem, maybe even conservative voters support me to stop reform Who knows what happens over the next couple of years? Who knows if Nigel Farg is still a member of Parliament if this investigation goes against him. in those circumstances U Does the galvanizing reform poll weaken Does that make it harder for Fy Burnam? Is Chem be theyade knock resurgent as Farage phase, does reform go into chaos or does Farage become a hero being done to by the Westminster establishment? He doesn't know the answer to that, but it is not clear better for him over two years, they could get worse, but I think this is the most important thing before we get to just I mean, that's the problem, isn't it? You don't really know And I don't think anyone's expecting even if he's delivers the most brilliant. you know, Manchesterism for the whole UK, that the economy is going to dramatically improve in the next countany is the global environment won't allow for that Ns we were discussing earlier, Is there some p of money he's going to discover to sol all of his spending pressures. So on those first two tests, I hear you say Test one The majority may be a bit smaller If he goes when he's popular and he gets five more years, that's worth having. And secondly, look, it may get better for him, but it may get worse and they take the moment now. But here's the third thing which I think is the most difficult for him. which is why Yes. If you go for an early election halfway through the Parliament, in the case of Bars Johnson, it was really clear Brexit done Yes. it was ob defines the question completely clear and was after months of complete stalem and paralysis in the Cons and you know, Theresme couldn't get any legislation through and couldn't get Brexit done. And so, you know, he He did define the question. In the case of Tereress May, although he was up against Jeremy Corbyn, people forget as well That's true. And the Brexit P partarty stood down. In the case of Tresa May, she never ever answered the question. In fact, she'd answered the question so much the other direction that nobody could ever understand why she was having this election and then The manifesto that she was suddenly asking for a mandate for made no sense. Gordon Brown, it wasn't clear what the question was. The problem for Andy Burnham, what is his biggest dilemma? G back five minutes in ten minutes in this podcast. His biggest dmma is this canan he really make the suumbs add up, in particular on defence, but also on the economy and to the manifesto tax pledges. if he goes for an early election Does't Kamy Benoch just says, Well, we know what this is all about? This is an election so Andy Burnham can raise your taxes. Is that the election he wants to fight? Has he got a bigger reason for having an election than the Bidenock charge is just to raise your taxes. You're right that that's the central question you have to answer if you're going to have an early gener election. What is it for beyond beyond I'd quite like to. get a mandate. I'm asking the country to vote for what reason and I think this comes down to actually the central dilemma which goes beyond even the economics and the fiscal situation, which is What is this change that he is promising? So the Makerfield by election was all about The country needs change, Labour's got to change, Labour's been disappointing. We've let you down I am the change. Now to do that, he has to dump on Kestama Right? You can't be all nicey nicey the Kistar I'm saying Kirst Starver did a great job. But you know, we decid to get rid of him and now I'm in charge. That's not a story or an explanation. We're talking about him being a good storyteller. You have to explain to the country why you challenged Sed Amour, why you got rid of him. the failure is that you are changing from. We've discussed before I thought Rishi Sunite made a huge mistake when he became Prime Mister not to define himself against not just Liz Truss which you did a bit. only after a few months But Boris Johnson, he was the chancellor exchcker who resigned brought down Boris Johnson as prim Minister. Yet, when you was asked about Boris Johnson, he's o, he's made a huge contribution to our party and I wish him well and it You've got for continuity in two thousand seven as well and actually it didn't add up because because he obviously wanted to be changed, but he wouldn't tell us what the change was. Right. And you know, if you're the striker in front of a goal Who cares who provided you with the assist You go You got a hold a se. If you don't have somebody who gives you your assists, you never get in a position to school. But ultimately, he has to really dump on Starma and by the way painful is is going to be dump on Rachel Reeves, and their legacy He has to say, I am the change, right And he has to define what that change is and the change has to be sufficiently dramatic if he wants to go for this election, that it justifies a general election. And it's not possible for Bidenoock simply to caricature it as continuity with a tax rise. So I think' another way to think about an early election question is who will be most scared of an You know, in two thousand seven, we in the Tory partarty, we didn't want an early election. I mean we were We said brring it on, David Cameron famously in the kind of Py conference, said, Bring it on But you know we definitely wanted a bit longer to establish ourselves and get ourselves ready looking like the alternative government Kammy Badlock's definitely doing well. She' had pretty sharp exchanges in the House of Commons this week, but you, she's establishing herself as a kind of big political figure. Can she be Neil Kurick nineteen eighty seven? Can she be the person who says this is the staging post? I mean, I think if she loses an election,s Sori party doesn't people who lose elections. On that basis, she doesn't want in election. she doesn't want Nichel Farrage definitely does not playck afield. So youough to be honest A early election may be the one thing which actually keeps him in play. R I just think You know, it' the reason why we chose this topic is at the moment, every's say, of course,'s not going I think by the time you get to the autumn, it's possible that the environment might have quite substantially changed And if he's had a honeymoon burnham And he's a skilled communicator, so the one thing he can do for the first three months as Prime Minister is You know, sound good, look good getet those first few weeks right in the way that Kiss Armor never did. suchuch a crucial part, you know, get the launch right Clear the launch tower, if you're the rocket There's more likely there will be an election than people are giving credit for. I still think probably on balance it won't happen I think it's going to be the discussion in October. Look Three tests Will you be in a better place after it? If you delay, will it get worse? And do you know why? going for what the story is, but the lesson of two thousand seven is Until you've decided, do not let the speculation run out of control because that kills you Now we are going to turn finally to what it's like for the current Pime Minister Kiss Armit in Dany Street for these next couple of weeks. Some prime ministers just go out on election night and even if they know they're going to lose, they never really have those moments where they say goodbye to Downing Street But David Cameron had a couple of weeks between announcing his resignation and T Thereressme taking over, partly because the leadership election there also collollapsed And there was only one candidate. So Kistar's got a couple of weeks. How is he going to spend those couple of weeks? What's it like for the people in and around? him. you and I have both been there in the past and we thought we'd share some war stories after this Shipping, billing, admin, payroll, marketing, You're managing all the things. So why waste time sending important documents the old fashioned way Mail and ship when you want, how you want with stamps. com Print postage on demand twenty four seven and schedule pickups from your office or home. save up to ninety percent with automated rate shopping. That's why over one million small businesses trust stamps dot comot Go to stamps dot com and use code podcast to try stamps dot com risk free for sixty days. Everyone treats summer like it owes you happiness. L days, pool parties, your best life on a loop. So what does it mean when you feel worse? The summer blues are real It's why summer is one of the busiest stretches of the year for people starting therapy. Grow Thrapy is here for all the moments when you decide you want more, more support, more clarity, more tools GroO connects you with thousands of high quality licensed therapists across the US, offering both virtual and in person sessions, nights and weekends. The therapist you want takes your insurance on G. Gro accepts over one hundred twenty five insurance plans. Sessions average twenty one dollars with insurance and some pay as little as zero dollars depending on their plan Visit growthapy d. com slash ACast today to get started. That's growthraapy dot com slash Acast growthapy d. com slash Acast Availability and coverage vary by state and insurance plans Summer is a gift It's the gift of days that last a little longer. brighter state of mind So give yourself a new Kia at the KA Summer Sticker Sales event Eespecially tacked vehicles including the Sorrento, Sportage, Carnival, as well as the Nurohybrid all backed by a ten year one hundred thousand mile limited powertrain warranty. So the gift of summer can keep on giving for summers to come. Kia Movement that inspires. Call eight hundred thirty three four Ka Free Details hostoa free event and seven six twenty six to dealer for warranty details. in twenty ten After I had become Chancellor and the coalition government had been created, these incredible photos came out. the very last days of the Brown administration This was after the general election, the five days between the general election and Gordon Leaving office And they were by a photographer called Martin Argles and they had pictures of Gordon Brown, pictures of U Ed Pictures of Alista Campbell. I don't know where he's up to these days, but All of you in these rooms actually in number twelve Downing Street, not in number ten Downing Street, which is where Gordon Brown's operation was based And you're all sort of sitting leaning back on chairs, feet up on the desk sort of waiting for events, essentially beyond your control as the Tories and the liiberal Democrats are negotiating things Well I thought they were very evocative political pictures of what happens in Downing Street when power goes somewhere else No, I thought you really captured Ed the emotion at that moment when you gave some commentary to the Blair Bown documentary that was made afterwards about that period and about Gordon's departure from Downstreet. Let's hear that commentary now I felt Proud He was able to walk down with his two sons and Sarah They had managed to protect them all of that time when they're in Downing Street. but he wanted to give his kids one photo and one memory so they would know their dad had been the Prime Minister remember that being very emotional thing to see. because you knew an erir it had finished It was done to all those years Oh my god, I'm almost in tears You are in tears. I' not in tears, but yes you're welling No, no. I think there's a not bad thing. The music Peter Maxwell Davis Farewell toestromess is so powerful I've been learning to play it myself and those pictures of Gordon Brown with his sons. They had protected them all of that time but they did want that picture. It's not exact parallel with kissed armour of course, because kissed armour has been forced out and Gordon Brown had lost a general election But there were those days when you know Could he stay on onn that particular day, it became clear over the afternoon that it was all over And actually Nick Cleg was begging him to stay on because he was trying to negotiate with you. and the end, Gordon Brown said no I'm going to leave And in that room, where we all knew it was done All these people came back from the previous thirteen years. so you all people who at times had been In the media seemed to be fighting each other, but actually it was always much closer and more cooperative than that. But Alistair Campbell, Andrew Donas Peter Mandelson M Yet Milliband Douglas Alexander Sunai year with so many others in there and we had to kind playlay for time And it was tense As the photos reveal, you know, we reminisced We told old Gordon jokes and then laughed at the punchlines and remembered moments. You knew that privilege had been to be there all those years and it was finishing and you just wanted to sort of kind of savor at that moment and then with his kids. One thing I remember though, which is, you know too me interesting. And if you think back to last weekend It wasn't simply kissed armour his children. to Victoria his wife you know, in that in that speech. I thought that was the only good bit of the speech, but that was a good bit and he didn't have pictures with his kids, but they're older and I understand that But all that weekend, there'd been all the briefings in the newspaper about how is Victoria. with him will decide And in that couple of days with Gordon Gordon was very keen. at all times to have Sarah Sarah Browny's wife there and she was always there. She was such a She was such a My phone is just rug and it says mobile Gordon Brown Gordon Brown is literally called in the middle of this in the middle of this conversation. Do you know what? I'm not going to answer the face because if Gordon ends up in the podcast, he will be slightly annoyed at me. Especially if we're talking about such a sensitive thing isn't that isn't that just o my Godd, Seren Dippidi U but the don't pull your punches just because, no, I'm not going pull the punches. The thing is In a moment when you are so politically exposed And all the people are giving you advice And you're thinking, I know is that really the best advice? Is it the best advice for me And Kistan will have been being told by cabinet members and even his staff members, you know, T time to move on. and he'sin, know, but is that right? and And are they doing It o for you but what about me? And in the same way, I think Gordon in that Day O is Sarah there because he ly trusted her. And she was unequivocally on his side And she wasn't thinking about, you know, in our case, the leadership election to come you know, what was going to transpire? You know, what was the next political move And she was just there so that Gordon always knew that there would could be somebody who one hundred percent. lotots of us were, you know, quite high ratings. None of us were hundred, off course we weren't who could say That's the wrong call. And when Gordon said, I'm done telling Nick Cleig, I'm to the palace. Sarah said, That's right And I think the same I don't know whether of course you went through exactly the same thing in overnight with the referendum result, the disappointment of losing And you were there with David Cameron. But of course there's part of you which is moving on to what happens next? Do I stay in my job? Is he going to reside? Could I be the next leader I don't know whether Sam Cameron was there and there's a parallel there, but Was there the same sort of sense of emotion and occasion and an ending That was u Yes, very much. I mean, there was this kind of horrific meeting at about three in the morning of me and Ed Lu Ellen and Kate Fall and David and Sam about arere we going to go ahead with the plan to announce his resignation in a few hours? I absolutely remember that But then you have these weeks afterwards, it was a couple of weeks. we're coming up actually to the tenth anniversary onn the thirteenth of July of the day he left Downing Street and I left Downing Street as well And the odd thing about those weeks between announcing the resignation and leaving office is that Power just drains away from downstream And it's something I mentioned last week, but I just elaborate on. in Downy Street you're the center of attention and Probably an inflated view of you know, the importance of politics in the world and the importance of Downing Street in British politics. but nevertheless, you think Everything emanates from this building. We never have enough time in the day to tackle all the issues Everyhere the Pime Mister goes he or she is the most important person. And then suddenly, utterly irrelevant You are you go back to being spectators of politics, having been principal actors for, in our case, eleven years because you include the opposition And it's very odd when you when it's someone in your own party whos becoming Prime Minister and there's a leadership contest in your own party because You used to run the leadership contest, you used to be in the leadership contest. This was all your world that you were in charge of And I just remember David and I just spent like days watching the television about likeike, oh, you know, is Andrew Leedson going to get the numbers? Is Theressa May going to win? what's happenens to the Boris Johnson campaign? It' It's a very, very od experience and And it's quite kind of shattering There are still a couple of sort of formalities. I mean They's sort of chairing cabinets and attending some meetings, but I mean No one's paying any attention at that point. And the idea I would say that Kistama can sort of get anything done in the next couple weeks, forget it. I know there's talk of well let's get this You know, special education needs package done. I mean, it's over. it's over. There are a couple of funny meetings I remember, or a couple of funny events, which I'll just end on. One is There's the R resignation honors discussion Which was a very odd life. The lavender list. Well, Laveers was Harold Wilson wasn't it and Marcia Falkander, his political secretary. ninet written on her lavender shaded notepaper basically rewarding a lot of airly dodgy friend Harl Wilson I' remember. David Cameron was like rouding his same stuff and you know, people would be like people like his agent and his secretary and you know, people hate these resignation on his lists, by the way. there is that to be done And then there's this extraordinary thing I remember