Political Stock Picks and Predictions

Who's afraid of Andy Burnham? Will anyone dare to stand against the favourite? or is a coronation all but inevitable? Hello and welcome to Political Fix from The Financial Times with me, Lucy Fisher. Well it's Tuesday and we're back in the studio for this episode and I must say it's blissful because we have air conditioning, so you're all looking very calm and collected. The story in Westminster is moving fast. There's Jocelying for position in Burnham's top team, so we'll play a bit of cabinet bingo Plus, we'll look at what will be in the top of his intro and his defence shaping up to be the first Burnham Starmer showdown. To discuss it all, I'm joined by my FT colleagues, deputy opinion editor, Miranda Greene, Hi Miranda. Hi Lucy. Chief political commentator Robert Shrimsley Hi Lucy. Hi, Robert. And public policy editor, Chris Mymth, Hi, Chris. Hi, Lucy Miranda, first, let's check in on the state of the contest because we're all talking like the King of the North is destined for Downing Street within weeks. But there are these two key holdouts who are keeping us all on our toes. Tell us about Darren Jones and Al Cairnes Is there actually any credibility in the idea of them getting campaigns off the ground I don't think they could win and I say that with some confidence. One can never be totally one hundred percent in this world, but with some confidence But I think it's interesting that there are still some Labor MPs who are not jumping on the Burnam bandwagon Personally, that photograph of of all of the Labour Party crowded into Westminster Hall to kind of welcome the conquering hero home. was a little teeny bit embarrassing. Clearly there are lots of people who are just angling as much as possible for a job. Even those in the current cabinet who've been very loyal to Stara who want to keep their jobs. I'm thinking perhaps of Nick Thomas Simmondons who's the Europe mininister because he obviously would like to argue that continuity when it comes to dealing with the EU is a good thing and he may have a point But I think the fact that Darren Jones and Al Carn's two very different sorts of potential challenges are currently saying they won't roll over as easily as perhaps where streeting has done. is quite interesting. Darren Jones He's on the sort of right fiscally dry side of the Labour Party and maybe feels that the concern is that a Burnham government could be to fiscally loose, scare the markets and then where we'll be Khan's example is more interesting because Could this be a future leader I feel maybe this might be some sort of potential dry run for him to see whether He has support for the future I can't see it, you know, from junior defence minister to prrime Minister at a time when Ver obvious who's most like to take over? Rbert you're doing the face.. I the face, we should all worry. I think Miranda's been characteristically generous. I mean, My father always used to have this phrase when I asked things, he said, You've got two hopes here. you've got Bob hope and no hope. And that's sort of how I feel about both of these contenders. And good for them for putting their heads above the parapetan and holding out because Andy Burnham hasn't yet told them what job they might have. And so they're sticking in there to see if they can wangle a job out of it. But I mean, look, just look at the picture Westterall. You've got alreadyad something like two hundred, two hundred fifty MPs. Um likely to nominate Andy Burnham. That doesn't leave room actually really for two other candidates. It might just leave room for one other candidate Darrenon Jones is not a serious candate for leadership at this point, and neither is Al Khann. I don't think either of them are going to get to the starting line if indeed they're even trying to U If I was looking An candidate, I would look to the hard left of the party there's anybody going to have a go at this you know, the patron saints of Lost causes, I would look at that group, the people around say Richard Bergen, John McDonald again, who just did We need to do this to keep Andy honest. But in the end, I don't think any of them are going to make it. I think it absolutely is going to be a coronation. And Robert's point about with the hard left being the most likely be able to put up a canda is exactly why quite a lot of labour people don't really want a contest because they feel it might drag Andy Burnne to even more left wing promises to please the party membership, which he would then struggle to put into place in government, which is what some of W streeting supporters are saying about why it's actually a tactical and master stroke for him to give up quite a other, which allows him to sort of to define himself against them Sen that that's the real left, I'm not them at all I think that's right. I mean, I was very struck, Chris. We were watching Burnham's arrival into Parliament. and he looked like the cat who'd got the cream, didn't he? A grin from ear to ear as he was mobbed across the estate. and usually for about bencher, he had two security guards. he felt like a celebrity And MP's just desperate to speak to him, desperate to speak to people around him who are thought to be deal makers was I was ribbing some labour MPs I bumped to on the terrace last night where Robert We were out and about trying to pick up the intel as people were having. a drink or three and jibbing MPs who are at the back of the photo saying, Oh gosh, if you're not sharp elbowed enough to get further forward, you're never going to get a job. it was a ridiculous It was undignified, don't you think? I mean, to actually do it on camera to try and be in the front row. I just found the whole thing something absurd So he arrives at Houston Station. The whole thing is, you know, like Lennin arriving at the Finland station. So he's swept through Eouston Station and then you have the whole I can't wish broadcasting chanbelers BBC, I think, you know, they deployed one of their helicopters to watch the journey from Houston station to , you know,' like they're filming him in a black cab. And someone had said, you know, and he dodged the crowds getting into a black cab. And I was watching this home my wife lastghed. I said, Well How do they think he was going to get there? You know it' like theult of a tube or a tab? I mean And then you got these two security guysards I was sitting in Port Cullor's house as he arrived. and suddenly, it was like the president had arrived. I mean being swept in by this crowd. This is something Quite bizarre As someone who was not there yesterday in Parliament, but who was watching it all at home I wasn't swept up in the moment, I have to say, and I actually was really hating it. Because when you were watching it on the news and it was intercut with, for example, the Kremlin saying you know, taking the Mickey out of Britain and saying, you know, they can't even keep their prime ministers for more than two minutes and then you know all the other things that are going on in the world that Andy Berham is going to have to deal with quite soon when he's in number ten. I actually found it quite a Sobering. Tay because we just seem to lose Prime Ministers every five minutes. and You know, parliamentary drama. is so exciting that we've all chen to live our lives That's right actuallyct I think peopleople at some distance from it are finding it quite worrying. and certainly, you know, people have said to me, Oh my parents are terrified you know, and What you mean another Pime Minister? And it is actually fundamentally quite disturbing And so I think the sort of The display of ambition amongst the people jostling for positions in a Burnham. I'm not sure it goes over that well to be honest. I thought you were going to say the interspllicing of Burnham looking triumphant and all the people around him grinning with The scenes of Starmer, you know, choking back emotion close to tears with his wife as well, which for me, when I saw ap from pages last night, someome have gone with pictures of Burnham looking forward, some were sort of marking the end of Stama's administration I do think Perhaps it couldn't be helped because Burham needed to arrive to take up his seat. the proximity of those two events felt like they could have done with a bit more space to just allow Stahmer that moment of dignity. It is true, and you know I thought I'd never seen anyone looking asleas of themselves as my seven year old until I saw Ry Burnham arrive in the commons yesterday. But in his defence, you could say a big part of why Labour and peace are so miserable is that Kir Starmer been totally useless at injecting hope never looks like he's enjoying himself. and Andy Beron does enjoy the theatre, the cutthrust of politics, which I think will go a long way to sort of restoring their mood, which may be quite an ephemeral concern compared to some of those weighty things that Manda has justent I mean But you know you can see why Labour MPs are breathing a bit of a sigh of relief to see someone who's actually having fun with, you know with politics. Tom Manders from they carousel of prrime mininiss. I mean, I was struck yesterday when Vlolodyimyir Zelensky sent out a tweet, thanking Kiss. Zelensky has outlasted four British prime mininisters now, which is not where you'd put your money in february twenty two. So there's quite something, but I was thinking about this on the way in this morning. And actually we talk about is Britain ungovernable and all these prime mininisters that actually Up until now it's been is the Conservative partarty ungovernable. that the carousel of Pime mininister has been entirely about the Conservative partarty and primarily about Brexit. This is the first time it's happened to Labour And an interesting question. look I think one has to havefforted having got rid of one leader Is it possible if things don't improve, Labour will also acquire this habit? I think that's one thing you've really got to watch out for. What do you think about that, Robert? Is Do you think changing Prime Minister ons means it's more likely to happen twice within this Parliament that you know MPs get the taste for blood They get used to losing their head. Well, I think it's partly about timing. You know, we're all well used to the idea that a prime mininister eventually runs out of steam his or her successor is put in place towards the end of the Parliament, ready for the next election. And we all get that and that's normal If you remove your Prime Mister this early Parliament then you've got a lot of time to do it again. I think it is about time. I don't think the Tories intended to have three Prime mininister. they didn't for some reason didn't see just what a disasterless trust would be But you know Imagine yourself in a scenario. I'm not saying I think this will happen, but it's obviously a possible scenario Andy Burnen takes over. The popularity doesn't last that long back down in the dumps before, you know a year's time. they start losing elections again. reform is still doing rather well, and they start to panic again, o, we can't go into the election with him either. So I'm not saying I think this is the most likely outcome. I think on balance, the most likely outcome is that Andy Bernamwood Prime Misteril the next election. but it's not impossible Well let's just dwell on this question for a moment. We touched on it yesterday, why the UK is facing such an incomparably high level of churn in our leaders We spoke on the podcast a bit about the economic factors, sluggish growth, the role of the media, social media Chris, you wrote a really interesting piece where you pointed out that this level of turnover has been unprecedented since the turbulence around the eighteen thirty two Great Reform Act which heralded the shift towards mass democracy. You looked at some other factors, including which would possibly talk about first Brexit because today is the ten year anniversary of the vote for the UK to leave the EU Yeah, and you know as someone who does incline towards the financial crisis theory of everything, I was quite surprised when I asked Jerry Hunt, who obviously had to clear up the mess that Liz Trust l when he became Chancellor. And he said, no he thought the economics was less important than the effect Brexit, you know, not only the political opportunity costs of arguing about it for half a decade, but the weare has completely scrambled the political coalitions that both main parties have relied on. So obviously we've labour lost what became known as the Red Wall and hasn't found a way of rebuilding a new coalition. The Cervatives have lost quite a lot of the traditional affluent South and haven't found a way ofbuilding that coalition. It is just much harder for both of the main parties to put together stable coalition. and that's even before you get to the habit of rebellion that the Brexit debates inculcated in MPs, notot least because they did have an alternative source of democratic legitimacy in that referendum, particularly during those tour years to say we're just going to ignore what our Prime Minister think and put forward our own view. And you know once you get that habit, it is difficult break it and with labour MPs, you know as Robert said, they haven't really done this before. but They have that tooy precedent. And then last year, you know, during the welfare , they suddenly realizeed the power that they had to tell the Pime Minister, No sorry, you can't do this. And now the logical conclusion that is for them to use it to say, actuallyually we want a different Prime Minister come in problem that You know, we have seen again and again is that if you elect a new Prime Mister because of who they're not or because they seem sort of more superficially appealing ular then as soon as that popularity fades as it always does from the first day, or're never as popular as when you enter Downing Street then it leaves you know without much else to rely on suppose that question of whether Burnham can see of the rebellions that were a real problem for the Stalma government It does sort of put a different gloss on all this competition for the jobs and cabinet as well, doesn't it? Because you know maybe Burnham with his political skills and he is of course a career politician, so he is supposed to understand this better than Kirst Stama did Maybe he can exercise patronage more cleverly and a certain authority differently because as we've discussed many times here This bizarre phenomenon of a huge landslide victory, which actually is actually harder to manage than you know a narrower majority in the commons has been such a feature of the last two years. I do think we're in danger of over generalizing from particulism and I do think Carousel of leaders was very, very specifically a Conservative partarty problem. What Chris has described Brexit and indeed go all way back to the toppling of Thatcher, the Conservative Party lost its fundamental principle of discipline. We're here, we do whatever we need in order to be able to rule and keep winning And they completely lost it as they descended down into an ideological morass. Added to that is the importance of activists in that leaders are now chosen by activists And so they appeal beyond their MPs to people who you're less representative of normal people than MPs who at least talk to normal people not if you avoid a contestsol. You have those two things and of course, both in the last election for the Tory leader and in what may or may not be an election for the new prrime Minister, The threshold for nominations has been significantly raised. So you know, when Liz Truss fell, The Conservative nineteen twenty two commommittee which oversees the elections, said you had to have a hundred nominees to get onto the ballot paper basically. to get onto the ballot paper for labour, you have to have Ay one nominees. Yeah That's a massive increase on what it used to be and that's been done quite deliberately away from the members because they don't trust the members to elect the right person. Well as some Labour and Ps say, you know the last time there was a leadership election with a robust discussion of policy was the twenty twenty two Conservative leadership election, and Liz Trust won it, which is not encouraging prescedidents I've been very struck at the number of people who are senior and prominent in Burnham's team. essentially are people who were sacked by Starmer and had a sort of grudge to bear or at least had no other way back to a prominent high status role, whether it's Lou Haig, who was sacked from his cabinet or Josh Symondons, who was sacked as a minister and then went on to give up his seat and make a field to allow Burn him to stand and even behind the scenes there's people like Doneta Mifari, a smart aide who was in Downing Street under Starmer to begin with, but was closely associated with Sue Greay and therefore left after Greay's departure. Lucyowell. Lucy Powell. Eactly. goodood thought, Miranda. And it just reminds me that one of the key rules in politics is you can't afford to upset anyone, whether it's the voters who you in return in the ballot box or even you in politics the personnel themselves. And Burnham is riding high at the moment. But he is going to have to start making some key personnel decisions soon and that's going to lead to people being demoted, kicked out of the cabinet altogether, disappointed and therefore, probably beginning to start plotting against him Let's just talk a bit about the personnel decision that everyone wants to know, which is who his choice is for Chancellor Chris, you're hearing West Streeting I mean West Streeting's allies are campaigning very hard, which suggests they think they're in the shop, but they are very nervous that they are not going to get it. And similarly, interestingly, Ed Milliband are doing very much the same thing. I mean, those two seem to be the front runners. neither has been promised anything because frankly Berham is too powerful to need to do deal point and obviously, they would each off you know suggest a very different direction. for Burnhams government and whether he chooses one of them will say a lot about the kind of government he wants to lead, as indeed with whether he ducks that decision by by choosing someone a little bit more palatable to both wings of the party. and I suspect He probably hasn't made up his mind yet because one of his great political strengths up to this point has been his ability to avoid having to make tough decisions so he can carry on appealing to everyone. and that is going to end very soon when into Down Street. And this will probably be the first decision he makes that does annoy quite a lot of people. and he's finding to make. Is that Coopper still in the race or her Her supporters think? Well, if you want to avoid alienating a particular camp. Eventte Cooper slots nicely into the middle of that. She does have, you know significant economic and treasury expertise I mean, if you look at her CV You go ye Yeah, I, she was Chf of Treasy, wasn't it? you go Yeah this woman could easily be Charanceer. And you have This thing which is a real thing within the lay partot. if we're suacking a woman, we have to get another woman, which I don't think anybody else particularly exercised by by the labor party really is. So you have all of that against it is the sense that if that cooper is just too cautious And she had a reputation for being very indecisive. Now Cutious is good in a Chancellor. indecisive, not so much to be fair, should we say that the whole Stalmmer government had a reputation for being inised. That's true. Perhaps she'll She she carried that mantle in pride. What of belief? Is that something maybe? But I think in a way If he were to choose her it would possibly be The first cop out because actually He's coming in to shake things up and do things. You've actually got to make a decision which says, We're going to do this differently. The case for Miliband, if you're Andy Burnham is he and I basically agree. in a way, picking Evette Cooper for all her abilities, I think would be a sign that you're just more or less going to carry on as you are Well There are others. I mean, he could decide to avoid these pitfalls by going outside those three names in the frame, don't you think? there others in the frame, Pat McFadd exly welfare and pension secretary Yeah John Healley, the recently departed deffense secretary, although it seems he would want to give immediately a big chunk of money to the military. Shibana Mahammud also touted, although we think she's likely to stay Home Secretary and Louise Hagig, another key Burnham ally who need to be found a role. But if I wouldn't say this about Louise Haagig necessarily, but some of those others would do that job of a kind of reassuring safe pair of hands, but without the sort of slightly deadening, depressing compromise air. Choosing a Vvet Cooper, perhaps But I think if he chooses Milliband, he's made a definite decision in terms of the kind of caste political caste of what his administration would be like because we all know so much about Millaband's views and backstory as well as you, a failed candidate for prrime Minister and the man who said that the whole country had shifted to the left. It debaseable whher that might not actually be slightly truue now than it was when he said it, but even so Well let's move on also to consider Burnham's intro and some of the key things he's going to have to do early doors because that will obviously influence his choice of Chancellor and other key appointments Chris, the defeense invvestment plans looking like it's going to be the first major policy flashpoint because Burnham's team have made it clear he, to my mind, quite understandably, wants to delve into the figures and review the issue, but Starmer is determined to try and get it over the line for the NATO summit next month You can also see some justification for that. Trump wants to see European allies stepping up and doing more That's not to end well. Probably not, but then it sort of hasn't ended well already for Starmer. So you can see why he wants to try. It's kind of baffling why he didn't try while he's still had a chance of actually surviving to put his own stamp on this plan. Fromurnham's point of view, I think he doesn't really want to talk about defence at all. It's not been a priach of. He's not great interestustries. He has mainly talked about defence as a way of subsidizing apprenticeships for the young in the North, which you know there's an argument for it, but it does come at a cost of actual operational readiness and of course cost. So what other issues? hisis key priorities traditionally have been housing, social care, devolution. Are you expecting something big and flashy for day one to try and set the tone for a Berham administration? Well, I think they would like to do that for political reasons But they need to work out Walt first, who I've just been writing a piece on the unanswered questions about violence policy priorities. It's quite long, and it's got quite a lot of cyyians that are unclear answer questions. Very very few. And I suspect because quite a lot of me he hasn't. know On one way, fair enough, he's been busy running great to Manchester and running election campaign. He's got a very small team of about three or four people in a room. you know, they can't do that work. and yet he's going to be Prime Minister in the three weeks and needs to have done it byy then and how you square that circle I just don't know. And quite a lot of these areas effectively come down to a trade off between do we want to spend the money now to get these better outcomes we believe will happen down the line or not and now he's committed to the fiscal rules, it's not at all clear how he can do that and therefore which ones he will pick. to be his first priorities. Miranda, Robert, what are you expecting to see from Burnham early doors. Public utilities, some announcement of greater control or regulation. Heathrow, perhaps, we know that the consultation on a third runway is open till September It would be a key signal of his that he backs the North not to channel new investment into infrastructure in the south Well, maybe, but then if you deny something that's touted as helping growth, does that also prove an unhelpful signal I think it's really tricky. I think that they do need to So this idea of bringing the Manchester Miracle as they like to see it you know, and spread it across the rest of the UK in terms of greater economic health that they take some decisions actually back that idea. I think he needs to demonstrate that it's not all about the public sector and that some of it is to do with this idea of pro business socialism, but he's going to have to emphasize the pro business side of that quite a lot. And I think as we've sort of said, the preparations for the budget are going to be veryery interesting in that regard in terms in terms of because that's what everyone's going to worry about the minute that he's in And um You know, I think I think the other problem is that some of those sort of long term preoccupations that he's confident talking about are a little bit abstract, aren't they? You know, when he says, we've got to deal with the social care crisis, I mean, I couldn't agree more. you know, I'm sort of one of those many people who's dealing with this invisible horror that week in week out with elderly parents. The problem is the reason it's been shelved for so long is because it's an absolutely enormous price tag if you take some of the ways out that have been recommended by experts in past inquiries. So It's going to be genuinely a really, really de delicate balancing act. I mean, I think he's in danger of ending up in exactly the same place that Kir Stahmmer was. he becomes P prime Minister in the middle of July And nothing happens to the budget in the autumn. that was one of the problems, one of the many problems. They hit. So I do think he's very alive to the need to arrive with a bit of a bang.o me, the obvious piece of low hanging fruit is taking tem water I think the obvious thing to do is to say Kemswater' failed we're taking it back into public control. It fits his general tone about nationalisation. It's there for the taking and he could then use it to set a template for what he wants. the water companies to be doing and to encourage the others a bit. So I would imagine that could be a very early move. I think he will have things to say very quickly on devolution and using the powers that exist to give more power to mayors and Other regions, which she believes is central to growth. The difficulty with that one, as Miranda sort of saying, is it's an abstract idea until you really start to feel the impact O the other area where he could move quickly is welfare They've got to show that they are prepared to cut some spending somewhere or at least address spending somewhere. And I think welfare is an obvious place for them to move quickly. I do think there is agreement now across the Labour Party on welfare. but I think the problem with that argument is that the agreement comes with spending money upfront on employment support to get costs down the line and that is not a short term saving So you know's yet another thing where there is money to be found. I think it could set the right tone for him in a way, which is we're going to do this. We are going to cut welfare wef try, but we're going to do it properly, which is how you get your labour MPs to line up behind it. Yes, there's a bit of upfront cost. We'll find that money because it's going to samement. And if you I mean, there's a new head of the OBR, the Office of Budget Rponsibility coming, which scores budgets So, you know I think a world in which you say we actually want to see our long term savings scored properly could allow you a bit of wiggle room. I think it's quite a good way for him to go as a starting point In the campaign, he linked that to increased defence spending, didn't he? I mean, I can take your point, Chris about the fact that may be upfront cost. ant that idea in people's minds it works politically, I think And what about the electoral politics outside of Labour. I was not surprised to see Farj immediately call for a Snap election and the Daily Mail splashing on Messiah without a mandate. The Messiah comment a quip about Some of the Tory MPs who win Berham was being sworn in w, I think it was Desmond Swain shouted, Rom is saved taking the piss out of him, and another said, You're not the Messiah, to which he replied, Naughty boy, a reference to Monty Python's life of Brian Mntal? What do you think firstly about this question of his mandate? If there is a coronation, is winning a Maker field by election enough to go straight in as Prime Minister? And how do you see Berham coming in playing out in terms of reforms polling in particular. So I tell you what, I think instinctively that although it's kind of obviously a gift to the opposition parties or some of them at least to try and harry Andy Burnham on his of personal mandate from the electorate and to keep demanding that he goes to the country and has an early election I'm not sure that the public would have the appetite for a general election anytime soon. And I think it's been quite interesting that Nigel Farge has said you need to hold an election, but the Conservative Party, the Liberal Democrats have not And that's also, of course, because everyone in the establishedment of politics, those established parties is concerned about the state of the polls. But I think it's also because It's not the thing uppermost in people's minds and you know they know that actually giving Andy Burnhamer a period to try and get to grips of things like the cost of living, which is making people so angry is probably the way to go. But I also think that Nigel Farage coming out and saying you have to hold an election now might also be a sign of Nudge Fj slightly running out of things to say. I don't think it's been a great few days for him in terms of the result in Makerfield and then also the emphasis on his personal ratings on the slide, people don't seem to be happy at all about the crypto money and indeed the personal gift. And it was a And this is a five million pound. fiveive million yeah from a Thai based crypto investor. Exactly And he was who has I know, Robert, but you deal with it with so much more dignity Nel Farge. That's my point because when challenged on it, when challenged on it, you know, he was incredibly grumpy and has been telling our journalistic fraternity that it's none of our business whether he you know what his motivations might have been for taking the money or what he's done with the money. And it' had to be pointed out in that actually in public life, it matters as if you're in hoc to somebody, you know So I think it's not been a great few days. and so I'm just not convinced by this whole early election election thing, It's always a problem for a prime Minister if they haven't book got a personal mandate, but is it that much of a problem? I not sure? Farage is also potentially open to being accused of hypocrisy because when defectees have you jumped to reform. He hasn't no v electioni Of all the hypocrisies in politics, there is no greater hypocrisy than the position of a political partisan on whether something we now need to have a general election because the party leader has been replaced. The people who call for it when they're in opposition absolutely deny the need for it in government. It's so pathetic Andy Berner, I think called for on one of one of the eatorian departures. it'solly ridiculous. And I find I mean, there is no good argument really for in terms of politics. There might be a moral oneent. there's no good political argument for calling an election. For a start, as Miranda said They're not in a good place in the polls. Lots of labor MPs would lose their seats even if the gamble paid off. You're allegedly doing it to get to free yourself up from manifesto constraints. The biggest manifesto constraint is the tax policy. So what you're going to go to call a snap election promising higher taxes. It doesn't seem to me coming. and I just think For all the reasons Miranda set out. Voters They're not an exercise to that degree about manifestos. you know if you want to go and break your manifesto promise with three years too You go ahead and do it and we'll decide what we think of that when you've done it. If it turned out to work, then we'll probably give you another go and if you turn out to then we'll clobber you for breaking the promise. they really just want people to get on with it Chris, what about the effect on, say Conservatives and the liibdems of Burnham coming in because I slightly wonder if Burnham prove streut to type and is a little bit less fiscally disciplined. There's more spending, high taxes, Is there space there for the Tories if they can get their out together with focusing on the economy and you know sound money, fiscal rectitude They could use that as a platform to build back I think potentially there is. the unswered question is what you know what he does to the reform vote and how that then affects the Cervatives. you can see Andy Berham being more appealing to reform inclined voters than Kir Staro. I think one of the reasons why he was so in some ways, weirdly unpopular was that he was seen as the sort of epitome of the North London Lists. He just did not understand the rest of the country and you know finally reproving again my theory of labour failure, which is they keep losing because you know five out of the last seven leaders live within a mour and a half of my house, which is just not really healthy in a national political party. Whereas Andy Berer, he does genuinely care about places in the North of England and You know that may help forge your connection and tempt some of those voters back, particularly if he does things like nationalization, which are pretty popular with reformed voters, particularly if he improves things like the cost of liotving which everyone But then obviously which voters end up switching back from reform to labour is a diff different question, whether that helps the Tories win. But yes, I mean, the only argument the Tories have left at the moment is sort of fiscal responsibility, lower taxes, that kind of argument. know he will help sharpen that very clear ideological divide. I mean it's not clear quite where it leaves the Liberal Democrats given a quite a likely sorry after an next election is you Labour, Liberal coalition. is there common ground and will those affluent s ex consonservative voters keep voting for the liberal Democrats if they think ultimately it might end up proropping a more left wing labour government We've just got time left for stock picks. Robert, who are you buying or selling Um or just to be slightly different. I thought I would buy Miata Famblla, who is was until quite recently, a labour minister, quite closely aled, a junior minister, quite closely aligned with Ed Milliband. She resigned very early in the recent schools in protests against Garmer. She's very close both to Milliband and to Andy Burnham. She's in a lot of the big discussions about future direction, transition team and such like. her background is from I think the newew Economics Foundation. so she's quuite a serious political thinker and over the left. And I think she's going to get a big job when Andy Bernam finally gets around to handing out the jobs Miranda. Well, I'm going to sell the word fee briile because We've had enough Vbrael politics, I think. And since we're sort of literally having this discussion during a breaking heat wave where it feels too feverish in reality. As Robert said I think that the general population don't want much more feebriile from our politics. so I would encourage the political class to calm down a bit now and us to enjoy it slightly less and ask for a bit more substance. So there we are, that's my That's my now I'mhing Yeah. That's my school Amish request. So I'm not sure how Manuela's going to score that answer when it comes to the end of year. I always lose, so I've just given up making sensible suggestions Well, Robert has stolen both of my picks because I was going to attempt to sell Tham's Water if anyone was offering me any money for it because I think it is now an inevitability that it is going to be temporarily nationalized, I was also consing M of Fanbulla as well. So I will instead buy Pat McFadden, who I think is possibly underprised in discussions to be Chancellor and I think will play a sort of key role when the sort of histories of this last weekend come to be written. You know his silence suggests that he was playing quite an active role behind the scenes in persuading Kir Stara that perhaps his time was up and establishing contact with anyie Burn. I think he probably will have a role in the government as sort of experienced wise head who is both sort of reassuring to markets but also you knows the Labour Party. pretty Well, so I think he will probably have quite a big influence in there Might you, Lucy I'm going to buy Louise Haig, a key Burnham ally who I think offers quite a lot to him. She's come up with this pololicy plu in and play programm, which is useful to him when he's got so little time to prepare for government She's also quite a robust messenger. and I think I can imagine her being in a role where she could be a bit of an attack dog deployed on the morning round after sticky wickets. And on top of that, you know, she's quite good at organizing. She really kind of reinvigorated the Tribune group during her time on the backbenches. She was actually a good transport secretary. She was one of those ministers who was on top of the brief at the stuff so much I remember buying her the day before H mobile. O of my great forecasting failures, but I think she's going to be a figure in your ey. You're right about the robust point as well. I remember thinking at the time when she was transrport Secretary in her incredible firmness about the direction she was going to take the rail network anotherother revenge of someone sack by starma Fight Well, that's all we've got time for Robert Miranda Chris, thanks for joining. Thank you. Thanks meucy. Thanks, Lucy That's it for this episode of the FT's Political Fix. Don't forget that we're back on Thursday for the FT live event ten years after Brexit. I'll put a link with registration details in the show notes, so please get in touch with your questions and we have been inundated so far with so many good ones I must say The Blitical Fix was presented by me, Lucy Fisher, and produced by Peris Love and Claire Williamson Muelis Saragosa is the executive producer Original Music and Sound Engineering by Brene Turner The studio engineers are Petrorosyumpasis And Andrew George Aardis. Flo Phillips is the global headad of audio We'll meet again here on Thursday