Final Predictions and Closing Remarks

Ready Gege? Ready J So then by. Hello and welcome to an extra edition of Political Fix from The Financial Times with me, Lucy Fisher, just hours after Prime Minister Kis Daharmer resigned I'm here in the FT's Parliamentary offffice It's hot outside, it's very hot inside. George, can I reveal that you've already removed your shoes It's so hot? And to continue with this dodgy metaphor, the political temperature is also rising Here with me to give a quick take on what's been a morning of fast moving news are the EFT's political editor George Parker. Hi George. Hello Lucy. And the EFT's deputy political editor Jim Pickard. Hi Jim. Hi Lucy Well as you know, we don't normally record on a Monday. I don't think we've ever recorded the pod before in our little office in the old palace of Westminster with stained carpets, old chairs We don't have a leak here, but there is a moth problem, there is a mouse problem. We're going to ignore that to bring you the latest because of course this is an extraordinary day with Kistama resigning Well, let's get straight into it. ort it felt like an inevitability growing over the weekend that Starmer was going to step down at the beginning of this week You've got your desk before seven AM to be ready Jim and I were too far behind you give us the top lines from that really quite emotional speech in Downing Street Well, I think I was working over the weekend and speaking to loads of people around Kist Dammer at a certain point, things went dark around the Prime Minister. He was at Checkers He was bunkered down with his family, with his wife, Victoria and nobody could get to him. And that was obviously the moment where he came to the view Dreirectly in m view that he lost the confidence of his cabinet and he lost the confidence of his parliamentary party and that all came to Fruition really at nine thirty this morning when he appeared in Downey Street a very emotional occasion. and basically said, lookook, I've done a whole lo lot of things, but I accept with good grace the fact that my party thinks I'm not the right person to lead it into the next general election and with that, He was gone and things have moved at great neck speed ever since Well that's right, isn't it Jim? We've already heard from Andy Burnham paying tribute to Kir Starmer, and Wes Streeting, the other major would be candidate in the leadership contest that might yet be sparked has folded in behind Burnham While there was this kind of growing sense of inevitability, there is a sort of shock that's rebounding around Westminster among MPs, isn't there Yeah, I mean, I've spoken to several MPs this morning and One of them said to me, there's not a dry eye in the PLP. Another one who'd helped precipitate Kistama's resignation, who'd called for him to resign. said They were watching it They felt really sad. There is just a bit of a sense of Everything became very feebraal They've now rolled the dice. what' iss going to happen next It is very hot. was just to defend George not wearing any shoes. There was a labour MP walking across members' loby completely barefoot this morning, which I don't know that reflects that state of mind. I haveve no idea. But no, there is a definite feeling that you have a PLP which feels in their bones that they've done the right thing because Kistamma which was doing so badly in the polls, but they are not certain that Andy Burnham will be more successful PLP is of course the Parliamentary Labour Party Well, let's just talk briefly about the timetable head because things are going to move really quickly now, aren't they? Starmer has set out a timetable for nominations for his successor to open in two and a half weeks nomination process will stay open for a week And then if no one comes forward to challenge Andy Berham, and if of course he can get eighty one MPs, I think that's a given, his supporters say he has more than two hundred then he could be Prime Minister as soon as july seventeenth George, some sense of anxiety even within labour about whether Burnham will be properly tested. And it springs to mind for me, with Theresa May, it was said one of the failings of her administration was that she hadn't been put through her paces properly in a leadership contest when she got down to the final two and her rival, Andrea Leedsom, dropped out hindsight thought maybe if there hadd been more scrutiny of her policy platform, that would have strengthened her Is Andy Banham going to fall into the same trap? quite likely, I think, because You know, in the hours since Kistama stood in Downing Street, we've as you say, we've West Streeting has thrown his loss in behind Andy Burnham and therefore it's hard to imagine there being a contest here unl'ess barring someone unexpectedly getting those eighty one names. So he will enter number ten pretty much untested. We know from the last few weeks as we started to ask questions about Andy Berham and his slightly sketchy policy propectus that if you poke some of his ideas enough They start to fall apart. You know the idea of excluding defense from the fiscal rules abandoned that. the idea of compensating so called waspy women over the pension scandal. He's retreated from that. know a whole load of things that Andy Burnham has said that he'd like to do from advantage point of Manesstter, but he will soon be In the next few hours or certain in the next few weeks when he becomes Prime minis part of the Westminster elite, which he's been decrying for quite a long time and facing exactly the same political and economic constraints that Kirst Arm has And there are a lot of people nervous as Jim was just assessing there about him arriving untested without a team U And some of his ideas really not fully formed to put it politely Well We're the FT, so we should give a moment to talk about how the markets are reacting on Monday. To my mind interesting that both the pound and gilk markets have ticked up since streeting bowed out, the idea of a smooth transition is being welcomed by the markets for now. Let's see how long that lasts and if it proost states Burnn and making any more hints at spending commitments im, it feels to me there's going to be a period now of soul searching in Westminster where people really try and engage with this question of whether the UK has become ungovernable I've really detected a sense of quuite a lot of regret, even among some opposition MPs, that we're now about to see our seventh prime Minister in ten years, likely to be our eighth Chancellor, our tenth foreign secretary in that time. It's not good for the future of the country, is it? No, and one of the things that Kit Starmer ostensibly promised was that he said there would be stability. We wouldn't have all the constant churn that we had under the Tories where I think they had something ridiculous like fifteen housing ministers in fifteen years and that there would be a period of stability. And I think there is a danger to the labour brand that the one thing they still kind of had going for them was that things could have been a little bit more stable that I've been thinking about this this morning. and I thought for quite a long time that we as a country or as a political Westminster Bubble are far too led by opinion polls. We are told, Kase Stommer You cannot win the election because the opinion polls are on eighteen percent and reforms on whatever it is, twenty fivecent, twenty six percent. Okay, let me remind our listeners that the opinion polls were out in the twenty twenty four general election by ten points. They gave Labour a twenty point lead. It turned out to be a ten point lead. If they're exaggerating reforms lead at the moment by around ten points then that would suggest that everything is still to play for or would have still been there to play for under Starmer. And I feel like we are a little bit being whagged by the tail I'll hope political system is obsessed with if you're behind in the opinion polls, even midtererm, when political parties that are in government are always less popular So that was just one thought I had. I also thought as well that there is a sense to which we the media are part of the process in which once the idea takes hold that the premier is done for, we write more and more about how done for they are to the point where cabinet ministers are reading what we the media write and they think, well Yeah, maybe these are Hlements are correct and he's done for well, maybe I do need to start sucking up to Andy Burnhem and it starts to possibly become somewhat a self fulfilling. Prophe But I'm looking forward to reading our colleague Chris Smyith, who's written a whole analysis piece today about why we've had seven premiers in ten years. I think part of it is the disruption of Brexit, obviously Part of it is that we aren't getting much economic growth and therefore public finances, the decision making there has become more and more difficult. There's also a little bit of me that just wonders whether, like a lot of other issues in society, the increased use of smartphones and our ability to communicate in nanoseconds with everybody else means that when the herd moves, it seems to move political herd being, in this case the parliamentary Labour Party, everything moves and changes in sentiment move much more quickly than they would have done fifty years ago. The only thing I'd add to that, and I think Jim's right on all those points is that It's not just the opinion polls. There's a real sense from labour MPs who sp speent a lot of time knocking on doors, particularly the local elections last month. The public have tuned out Kstarma. They stopped listening to him. Lots of people say they hate him. reason some people might find hard to fathom. and that they're no longer getting a hearing and therefore they may get a fresh hearing with Andy Bernam, but That comes up with a massive caveat that Andy Bern hass got to have something Yeah know, worth saying and actually some policies behind the words as well I'd also agree with you, Jim. I think social media and the frenetic pace of it plays some part in the honeymoon periods for leaders becoming ever shorter And I think it's been interesting to hear some MPs point out to me Yes, StarM has only been Prime Minister for less than two years But he did lead the Labour Party for four years before that. He has been in charge. He's been at the you height of British politics overexposed now after six years rather than just two. and I think possibly there is something in that. Just to finish, I think on the traditional media, you've mentioned columnists in newspapers. To my mind, the broadcasters haven't all covered themselves in glory. I think in recent weeks there has been a sense of almost glee the way some of them have been dashing around Downing Street very excitedly talking about the prospect of yet another change of personnel in Downing Street that I think has led to a little bit of distaste among some voters. Yeah, exactly. If you're the prim minister and you have the entire media saying that you're done for it, it's quite hard not to think to yourself Am I some kind of mad narcissist for thinking that I might be able to to fight through The other thing I think that's worth pointing out here is that we have Andy Burnham coming in And he is making these grandi os promises he's saying that he is going to end neoliberalism after forty years. He was asked by Newsnight are your policy ideas a bit thin? And he said, Well, if you think that ending neoliberalism after forty years is not ambitious, then I've got something to show you. He said he's going to end the de industrialization of the North And yet All of the policy prescriptions we have seen so far quite similar to stararism. There's not an awful lot of fleshed out detail that. even nationalization, which is something that he's kind of hinted at at the moment seems to just consist of If Thames water goes under, which it's quite likely to do he wouldn't bother allowing a private bail out of it. It doesn't go an awful lot further in policy ideas to what we already have. And that is going to be his big challenge, matching the grand u, you know, down to earth promises of change with tangible changes That's right. He's clarified his issues on utilities, hasn't he saying that he believes in public control rather than public ownership, which could mean more regulation at the end of the day George, what are the early priorities for Burnham if, as looks increasingly likely, it is going to be him potentially entering Downing Street as early as this time next month Well, I mean the first big thing looming on the horizon is an awesome budget. That will be a moment of truth. for Andy Burnham. Of course the person who delivers that budget is his first really big choice Um Has he done a deal with West Streeting? Has West Street pulled out of the leadership contest in exchange for an offer of the treasury, that would be a big, big step for Andy Burnham, you, pointing someone from the Bair right of the party to run the treasury orr will it go to Ed Milliband, someone on the left, or someone maybe in the center, someomeone like Evet Cooper or John Heeley, but the budget And those big choices, the clarifying moments of a budget, where you have to identify what your political choices are And then of course, the other thing, which you've written a lot about,, of course, is the defense investment plan still stuck on the Pime Minister's desk will be there waiting for Andy Burnham if and when he becomes Prime Minister big choices that involves because someone once said to me Yo, Andy Burnham suggested this idea of putting defence investment off the books, away from the fiscal rules And they said it wasn't because Andy Burnham came into politics to spend more money on defence It was so he could part of that spending somewhere else so he could spend more money on housing and roads and schools and all the rest of it But that's a big choice for him as well because it's not one of the things he's ace about particularly because he's got to find the money from somewhere And that somewhere could be all the other things you wants to spend money on Well that also brings me to what's left in Starmer's inbox before he is potentially turfed out of Downing Street. And that includes attending the NATO summit in Ankaror in two weeks' time. It looks likely, doesn't it that he won motivation for only opening the nominations for the leadership contest on july ninth is to allow him to go to that summit without that process taking place in the background, although some Labour MPs also suspect the Pime Minister perhaps wanted to leave a little gap just to allow some of Burnham's rivals to see if they could build the momentum to challenge him for the crown, given all the bad blood between Burnham and Starmer, which we've spoken about a lot on the pod And I do think it's shaping up to be a pretty tricky final act for Starmer this summit given the row of the military funding that led to John Heeley's resignation earlier this month. given the fact that other European leaders will be falling over themselves to try and show Donald Trump how they've stepped up and answered his demand for Europe to do more to protect its own backyard, so the prospect of Trump potentially callalling out the UK for a particular dressing down, given how we're tumbling down the NATO League tables, both in terms of spending and in terms of capability is a real possibility for Starmer. Jim, just last week when you were in Evenne for the G seven, the EU confirmed the date for a reset summit later next month, july twenty second Quite hard to see that taking place now, isn't it Yeah, there are already rumors today that this is going to be postponed and it makes sense, right? Why would you want a bustard flash of a prime Minister who is literally on his way out? taking those critical decisions. So I think they'll try and find some diplomatic way of of easing themselves out of that one I was just going to go back to what George was saying about who the potential Chancellor is. And I think The idea of Evette Cooper getting that job is probably underestimated because Rachel Reees was the first female chancellor of the Exchequer in history. She's only lasted we expect for two years if she's removed by the successor. And so to put a man in that job when you've got yet another male labour leader, remember they've never had a female lead of that party. Evette Cooper you know has experience in government, She's reasonably influential in the same wing as Andy Burnham, and she doesn't represent a sort of different philosophical strand in the way that Wes Streeting does. And the icing on the cake of this theory, chatting to certain people down in Mmbers' lobby, is that it would clear the role of foreign seecretary, which would be a natural fit for Wes Streeting, who doesn't have particular financial expertise. And if you have him out of the country, he's not causing domestic trouble, but you have rewarded know the most senior Bair right in the party with a plum job and kept his phalanaxx of substantial number of MPs on site Great, and we're expecting Shibana Mahmou potentially to stay home seecretary, aren't we, even though her migration reforms are controversial with those on the left Let's sum up just reflecting a bit on Starmer George. What has he achieved? and do you think history will remember him more kindly than his own party Yes, I think that's probably true. And I think actually not even history, but I suspect and there are people inside number ten Downing Street this morning who were saying this, is that even in a few months time people might be looking back on Starwind a slightly fonder light if things don't turn out quite as Andy Burnham hopes But yes, what's your chiefs? I mean Big achievement for Kist Amor is he saved the Labour Py from Coronnite Hard left and the what he called the moral bankruptcy the partarty faced back in twenty twenty, the anti Semitism in the partarty turned it around, made it an election winning force in one parliament, which many people said was impossible, led the party to. It's one of its most extraordinary election victories. What's you achieved in office? We can run through some of the mistakes he's made but the things he will point to are things like the extension of employment rights, renters rights cutting of hospital waiting this. Also the big fall, although this started under the Cervatives in net migration as well, which is something he didn't list on the steps of Downing Street, as they mentioned the number of people staying in hostels and so on So I think you know, people will probably judge him kindly only I suspect If he's laid the groundwork for a future Prime Mister in this case, probably Andy Burnham to lead Labour on too an election victory in a few years time I do I do think if if his it sort of makes me think if Tony Blair had been pushed out of office in nineteen ninety nine. or if Margaret Thatcher had been pushed out of office in nineteen eighty one, you would think, well, that's a little bit weird, wouldn't you? But then again also Winston Churchill won World War two or helped win World War two and he was kicked out by the electorate. So Kistam was not the most hard done by former prrime mininister in history In some senses, it feels to me that The issue with Kara was partly personal his failure to have any real personal politics. He was a technocrat who thought he could just do a better job than the conservatives at governing and failed to see the importance of storytelling, at narrative. And it's been quite a stark contrast seeing just how Well, Burnham did that in the local campaign in Makerfield, you know, vote for hope vote for change And on top of that While Georgge are absolutely right, you got this stunning majority, more than four hundred and ten labour MPs elected It was on a very small proportion of the national vote share thirty four percent to almost two thirds of MPs on around about a third of the vote and therefore From the beginning, he's had all these MPs in marginal seats who've been trying to drag him this way and that, all the many U turns that he's been forced to give into starting with the probably what will be considered his worst flip flop on the winter fuel payment reduction for pensioners, on welfare cuts, on the two child benefit cap political authorities has been draining away for quite some time. Do you not agree, Lucy? I see one thing I forgot to mention, you cover foreign policy is that on the foreign policy field, I think that's an area where we can agree that he did do a good job in managing the Donald Trump relationship keeping Britain out of that war in Iran I think you're absolutely right. And in fact, that's one of the key areas of opacity in Andy Burnham's views. There's very little on record about what he thinks. I think one thing that's quite interesting is th, you know I suggested earlier that if we didn't follow the opinion polls quite so closely then maybe he would have lasted a bit longer. I think there are loads of genuine criticisms of him, one of which is that he was very wooden prime Minister communicator. I think as well, the truth is that whether it's the fault of social media or whatever it may be I think the centre ground in British politics is becoming smaller I think left leaning people are becoming more left wing, right wing people are leaning more right And it's understandable why a lot of people on the left hate Kir Starmer, which is that he made ten very powerful left wing promises to win the Labour leadership and then basically ripped them all up straight away. So it shouldn't be that surprising to us that he's a hate figure for some people on the left. and it shouldn't be that surprising to us for people on the right He's never going to be as right wing as the Tories, who are never going to be as right wing as reform, who are never going to be as right wing as restore UK. So he's been sort of on this kind of floating iceberg of centurism which appears to be melting rather too fast for the liking of any centrist listening Right, we've just got time for stock picks. off the cuff. George, who are you buying or selling Well, um I think This may be a bit of a no brainer, but I think I'm going to sell Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, not justust because it seems quite likely she's not going to be chancellor for very much longer if Andy Bernen becomes Prime Minister, but also for the fact that Over the last month or so And I think I've mentioned this before on the podcast, but especially today in Kirama's final public act really as Prime Minister's resignation in Downing Street, taking place literally outside her front door in eleven Downing Street, that Rachel Reeves wasn't among the ministers standing out there in the streets supporting him I think that's quite poor personally I agree with you. I was surprised to see her absence, but it's in line with all the manoeuvverring we've picked up from her behind the scenes in the past month, floating left wing policies in a sort of peacocking dance to Team Burnham And it's clear from what we've been picking up that there's not only a little bit of anger that's come from number ten about her behaviour. Jim, who are you buying and selling I think I'm going to buy Carl Turner the suspended Labour MP because when I think about what policies Andy Burnham as Prime Minister might change in orudit to Kate or please the Labour Party. There have been quite a few MPs who have been upset about these changes to juries and I wonder whether he might been that policy, and Carl Turner, of course was suspended from the Labour Party for leading that rebellion Lucy, who are you buying or selling I'm going to buy West Streeting. I think he's clearly done a deal, as you alluded to, George, with Team Berham for a very senior job, It could yet be Chancellor or Jim. I think we've got a good thought there that it could be Foreign Secretary. But I think he's probably made the right call to fold in now. His leverage was probably at its highest point threatening to run without attempting to do it and falling short of the eighty one MPs because I think he might have found it difficult to get even people who supported him previously to go public over the parapet and risk annoying Burnnaman and losing out on a job. Well, that's what we've got time for. Big thanks to you Breen who's been standing here holding a microphone for us. In very hot room. In a very hot room, you dashed into the office to get the kit, dashed over here to speak to us. George, Jim, thanks for joining Hi, Lucy. Thank's Lucy Well, that's it from us. And don't say we don't spoil you. We're back later this week with not one, but two more episodes We'll take stock midwek of what's going on in Westminster and bring you our latest take And then on Thursday the twenty fifth of june, I'll be hosting a special episode, an FT live event of Political Fix, where the panel, including George and I will be discussing ten years after Brexit. asking canan the UK deliver change You can join us online for that. Register to take part at ft dot com forward slash anniversary and send us your questions. I've left a link in the show notes The political fix was presented by me, Lucy Fisher, and produced by Peris Love Manmuela Sarragosa is the executive producer. Original Music and Sound Engineering by Brene Turner. The FT's global head of audio is Flo Phillips We'll meet again here later this week