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We just want somebody fresh, somebody new, somebody from here, somebody who gets it. A flavour there of what voters are saying in Makerfield. We need somebody with a backbow. With all people in they're supposed to do what they said they're going to do. None of them might so Welcome to Political Fix from the Financial Times with me, Lucy Fisher. Now we are recording this in a pub in Makerfield, where I've been on the ground for two days now, trying to take the political temperature ahead of the by election next week. It is shaping up to be potentially the most historic by election in British history. It could change the course of the country if Labour candidate Andy Berham wins and successfully challenges Sakkir Stahmer as we know, he's planning to do for the premiership. And we're just sitting now to record as John Healley, the Defense seecretary has sensationally resigned in protest over the financial settlement for Britain's military. So so much to discuss here with Jennifer Williams, the FT's Northern England correspondent, Hi Jen. Hi, Lucy And Jim Picard, the FT's deputy political editor, Hi Jim. Hey, Missy. So to set the scene first, I should say we are in the Bshead pub in Abraham in the Makerfield constituency. So big shouts out and thanks to Chris the Landlord for letting us record here, especially as there is a bingo game going on behind us that you might hear. We're having a bit of lunch, Jen You've fallen prey to stereotype, you're eating. I'm doing the Andy Burndam special. I'mving chips and gravy. That's a reference to Andy Burnham being asked what his favorite biscuit was. Can you remember his reply? It was chips and gravy and you think also a pan of bit. I also said bit just a max the not conion. Okay, but you're on the orange juice What are you having, Lucy I have I've already have some fish fingers in the pub but I have procured for your dtation, Jim, what I'm told is a wigam pie. It is a minintced steak party pie inside a soft white bab known locally I'm told by Gallay bakery as a bm. so it's it's a balm. sorry, a balm. Wig in Kiba A Wig in Kab, I've been correct. forgive.' Balm. The regional variations on bread rolls in this country are kind of pretty pretty spectacular, I think. Around here it's Balm. Okay, so it's bread around pastrery. Jim, I don't eat meat, but you've got to take a bite in the name of it looks authenticity I've had a McDonald's but I'm going to enjoy that on the train home Great. So let's kick off with discussing what we've heard so far on the campaign trail. Jen, we've just come up this week, but you've been covering this ever since the by election was called and obviously you know the area well from your years reporting around here. Give us a sense of what you've picked up fromr voters on the ground. I think there's the things that you would expect to come through and have come through for a long time, especially in a constituency like this, where immigration and cost of living are at the top of people's lists on the doorstep. and that's what comes through when you go out and talk to people. I also think that there's kind of been a shift of the mood where at one point there was kind of a degree of apathy around politics. I do think that that has started to turn into a degree of anger and it's directed in different directions, but a lot of it is directed at Kist Ama And then I think there are things that are more specific to this campaign, including things that have arisen like during it, like for example, the two tier policing stuff, are kind of a sort of pronounced gender dynamic to this, which I'm sure we'll probably come on to. And there is also this kind of question about who is the most kind of of us? whoo is the most kind of man of the people of the place? And essentially Andy Bernham and Reform are both trying to persuade people that they are that guy. Yeah Well that's something that I really picked up at a Hustings event hosted by the Manchester Evening News. Your old place, Jen on Wednesday. where Berham was really trying to walk this tightrope, wasn't he? in saying he's a local man. He made clear his children had gone to the college where the event was being hosted He made clear that he wouldn't forget where he came from if he got elected and was trying to tailor his messaging both locally to the community here, but also really picking up on themes that have national resonance. So here's a flavor of how Bernham was really trying to bring that home with the voters on Wednesday. Whever I have represented people, I've got it to the best of my ability and it's always been this place where my heart is I looked the Hillsborough families in the eye and I represented themem when I was in the cabinet. and I would represent this constituency in the same way the more you've got to help people and more this constituency would become the most powerful in the land. And then here's Robert Kenyon, the reform candidate trying to make a similar point that he is the local man who is not trying to, as he would put it, use this constituency as a stepping stone for higher office If you want a local approachable MP you can contact your plans on sustaining. being out and about in the streets, I'll be going to the same gyms, the same pubs, the same schools walking the same streets, going to the same supermarkets as all you lock I can relate it to your lot moreel than somebody at the opposite end of the country. Jim, what have you been picking up since arriving in the sea I've been up here this morning in the rain, chatting to a fair number of people. I've probably spok to fifteen or twenty local people in Makerfield. And what I found very interesting is that I got more Labour and Burnham supporters Lucy, I will come back to I think you got more reform and restore voters This is why we have pollsters because they can talk to a thousand people in a way that we can't on our trip up from London, but I agree with what you said, Jem, which is that there seemed to me a bit of a gender difference with the women standing on balance a little bit more labourory and the men who were more open with how they were going to vote were talking more in a kind of reform way. And there was one thing that I noticed that really came through, which was that Andy Berham when he was in his hustings was using this line about how reform wanted to make British politics more like Trump's America Two people on the streets this morning spontaneously said that to me and I thought, well that's one attack line from Berham that does seem to be getting free to voters. Interestingly though, Jim, Peris, our producer and I were at a reform press conference on Wednesday afternoon in which Robert Kenyan, the candidate, was only allowed to speak for just about two minutes before Nigel Farage seized the limelight and spoke for at least half an hour And we actually saw a lot of women there supporting reform and interested in reform at this press conference in a car park They seemed to be completely unfazed by comments he made online in which he suggested that women can't drive or referee football matches, I think it was. some very vicious comments about abortion, claiming that women use it as a secondary form of birth control so they can sleep around and also some highly sexualized comments that he endorsed. about Carol Vorderman But there were a lot of women in the audience there, and we talked to some afterwards. and they felt interestingly that all the attention that was being brought to Robert Kenyan's past comments on social media was a cynical ploy by other parties, notably labour and other critics of Kenyan. They thought it was completely irrelevant what someone had said on social media a decade ago before they had got any interest in going into politics. And in particular, a lot of voters we've spoken to on the ground have brought up U with a sense of chagrin. A leaflet that's come through their door with comments from Carol Vorderman trying to draw attention to that controversy over Robert Kenyan's comments, and they really don't like that I've got to say it doesn't massively surprise me because it's kind of got the air of somebody coming in from outside and telling you what you should or shouldn't be angry about. So I'm sort of not hugely surprised by that. I think I mean there is a gender divide from what we can see in the polling and from what Cvases are sort of picking up on the doorstep. whether it's necessarily any more pronounced between Labour and reform than it is nationally, it may be sort of roughly in line with it. But I think what Labour have identified is something that they can pounce on in terms of his past remarks I think you could see from the looks on those women's faces in the question timeim audience when Robert Canyon was sort of pushed on what he had said previously and kind of didn't really make a good very good fist of defending himself. you could you know, those those clips have been clipped up and sent around social media and amplified and amplified and amplified over the last week or so. It's interesting. I noticed at the Hustings, Robert Kenyan was at pains to say that he and reform totally backed women's rights. It said that women's rights would be safest under reform than any other party. And then you could tell he was sort of reaching for a single right of women to name. And he sort of said pregnancy and honestly there was a titter that rans through the audience was thinking Right, You're going to protect women's rights to pregnancy are you? And I think in a sense, maybe that unvarnished nature is something that's a little bit appealing next to the glossiness of Andy Burnham, who's obviously a much more eloquent practice performer And I was interested to see them sat next each other at the Hustings and the different reception that they got. I think what's quite interesting, I think about Andy Burnham and the risk that he's now going to be taking, I suppose, is that as mayor, he has thrived off this idea that he's got outsid a status, so he has built his brand around the idea that he's gone up against the initially, particularly against the conservative government, but he's maintained that brand while labour has been in power, right And people have responded to that, I think it's a large part of his popularity One of the things I've noticed and this is more probably from online comments than it is necessarily from talking to people in the street, but I suspect it may be true in the street as well is that there may just be a little bit of a risk that that outsider status is just beginning to wear off a little bit because you know how do you maintain that in a circumstance like this when you are clearly the polished politician with the money, well, I say with the money, but certainly with the machine behind you, right That becomes harder again to maintain if you then go into number ten. So one thing I picked up talking to people at Makerfield this morning was that Even the ones who were voting reform don't mind Andandy Burnham, I guess reflects the fact that he hasn't had to take any responsibility for national government decisions over the last decade. And the people who are inclined to vote Labour do think they call him things like good he's a good fella, he's a great guy, know he's likeable. Even among them there was some cynicism about whether he can change Britain and do a better job in Kir Starmer. Nobody seems to like Kir Starmer actively, but there are a couple of people who said to me, We do think it's really hard running the country being Prime Minister. We don't think Kir Starmer is abysmal We don't think he's gotony Chrisma, but we think it's a really difficult job. and we don't see Andy Burnham as much as we like him suddenly making everything gravy to use the Northern expression. I think trust is just so low in normal politics, right? I mean, I've sated on focus groups of people who are probably going to vote reform But if you ask them, do you think Niiggel Farage will completely change the country, they're really not very sure. They're just kind of thinking, well, I don't know. Well there was a lady we spoke to in the corner here in the pub who said that you she hated Los she hated Kist I was going to aboutote Niggel Farage in reform. And I said, do you think Britain will get better? And she said I have no idea. No idea. But if he fails, then we can go back and try the original te, but we just need to shake things up. And Jen, you're interested in housing as a theme that really plays into that argument about who's the real local candidate? So there's a particular court case which has just been heard this week, which is bad timing for Andy Berham And it's something that reform has immediately kind of weaponized against him, and you can completely see why. The context for it is that when Andy Berham just before Andy Berham became mayor in twenty seventeen Greater Manchester had agreed a p of money with the treasury and it was used partly to help build the skyscrapers that you can see in the city center now and it was lent out to various developers to build those as part of the efforts to regenerate the city centre. Andrey Berhamber promised to make that fund all about social housing if he got into office and then sort of generally speaking kind of didn't and has then subsequently been sued by a developer that didn't get access to that money who argues that you it was lent unlawfully in various accusations around interest rates. That case has come back to court this week and whether or not it's won or lost, what it has done is an airring for this idea that reform is able to pick up on as an attack line that Andy Berham has been lining the pockets of private developers in Manchester City Centre. So the optics of that are not ideal if you're trying to argue that you have a kind of insurgent man of the people status and the timing certainly isn't. I did ask a couple of people this morning what they thought about Nigel Farge taking five million pounds as a gift from crypto billionaire based in Thailand and the gist was kind of at it, you know everyone takes money. No one is computing that this is an unfathomably large quantity money to receive I have usual British politics. I have had it come up in a negative way actually. Oly for one or two people. Yeah Yeah. But I think what's interesting about it is that people have noticed it. They are aware of it. It's just that He's also not done many press conferences recently. I think if and when Niger Fz starts doing regular televised press conferences of the sort he has been doing If he does Th I imagine know people might see more of it on the TV. I was struck that one of the reform ads locally has shown Andy Burnham sort of jetting off to Aman to meet luxury property developers at an annual conference jjoying this jolly as well. So they They're trying to that to stick. And you can see why they wouldt because you know, Andy's campaign slogan is literally for us Right. Like that is where this is being foughted I was very interested. We know that by elections normally see lower turnout than usual. So people who normally vote in general elections don't manage to get to the polls, don't know what's happening, or aren't as interested in by elections We spoke to on Wednesday actually a handful of voters who didn't vote in twenty twenty four, but are now going to vote next Thursday for reform. Yeah. And I think that's interesting. It shows to me that there is a level of engagement and enthusiasm that reform have managed to engender at least in some of their supporters to get them to come out of the House, which I thought was was interesting. Yeah And the local election results were really bad for labour, weren't they just to remind our listeners how And didn't they basically lose J nineteen outf twenty wars was they? Well, I mean, it was basically a wipe out for labour in the Borough of Reigam, which is where we are. I also think one of reform's tricks has absolutely been to turn a bunch of people out who don't normally vote. and this has taken labour unawares in a lot of places actually over the last couple of years. You know there've been instances where labours have been pretty confident of their own data. It's as good as it can possibly be, but they haven't been able to find those people who actually have come out of nowhere who don't normally vote and they' gone out and voted before Well, I must say All the polling suggests that Andy Burnham is going to sweep it next week. The bookies think Andy Burnham is on track to win. But I must speak as I find, and I would say that we've driven to every part of the constituency, whether it's Abraram, Hindley, Orrel, Ashton Win Stanley and to my mind, at least the roads we've been down, we've seen quite a lot more reform placards than we have labour. but that's not necessarily indicative of the result. But let's just hear a very brief montage of a few of the voices we've spoken to on the ground Labour Party have been at Wigan Council for forty years and things have got worse and worse and worse. What difference is Bernam going to make now? Andy's very good at speaking, I'd say. and he's done a lot for Young people around here as well. He's the only politician I think has done something for me. personally. I think there should be less money in the welfare and more money in people's pockets than actually doing some work. I think I speak for most of the people in this country and we say anyone that comes over here legally and intends to work and contribute like the rest of us is more than welcome. I think it's just Everything that's going on with immigration. As soon as you mentioned reform, oh, you're right, I'm not racist. You know, never I've been and I never will be. I voted for reform last time, but since reading lots of information I've gone against them now. and I'll be voting for Rore this time Pers and I think have been struck by the number of people who are voting either reform or restore, which has also been quite striking. I ask you, Lucy, what are and there's a whole twenty restore campaigns in the same pub as us twenty yards away. What have you found talking to the people who are planing to vote for Ri at Lace party Well, interestingly, we spoke to one chap in his sixties who just retired, had run a bakery that had been in his family for three generations And he said to us that immigration, illegal immigration is out of control. Other people we spoke to in Hindley said that they had met the local restore candidate and she had come across really well um We spoke to a woman who said she had voted for reform at the last election, but will be voting for a restore next week after being more convinced of their policies after reading about them online. And the point is the reform have outflank the Tory Party from the right by pledging to be tough in immigration. and now they are saying Restore eat their lunch from the ride as well, and it's conceivable that that could split the difference to help Andy through, right? The thing I'd just add on Restore as well is you know I did challenge people about whether they viewed Rore as far right as extremist and they were pains to say, you know, I'm not racist. I don't believe they're racists. It's illegal immigration that's got out of control I think that is at odds with their policies, which are hardline nativist But it's interesting how they're being read by some of their supporters. And I think also it's the other side of that gender question as well, right? I was chatting to a reform voter when I was out talking to people here last week, He said exactly what you were saying, know, I were worried about keeping girls safe from what these gangs are doing, even if there aren't any local gangs necessarily there was a salience to the issue, right So the gender issue also plays into that. Jim, I've also been struck by how much Belfast is playing out here. People have brought up unprompted the word beheading, obviously referring to heinous scenes we saw in Belfast in recent days and some of the violent disorder that's erupted since then eople talking a lot about stabbings that are taking place throughout the country them feeling scared. Have you picked that up and people you've been speaking to? So I mean it's a very fraught backdrop on the national picture. This by election is taking place with all that in the news every day. And you know the crime that occurred in Belfast was obviously completely horrific and this poor guy losing his eye and all the rest of it. But equally upsetting is the subsequent carnage we saw with people's cars being burnt out, homes being burnt out the local police having to evacuate a two year old child from a house because this kid wasn't safe. And you know all of that anger is a legitimate response to a horrific crime, but it is being stoked by people like Elon Musk thousands of miles away and far right agitated online. wanting this fury in a way that when a white person murders another white person they are not quite so exercised and how on earth the Westminster establishment deals with that sense of grievance and sense of anger, they don't seem to have worked out how to counter it and it feels like a very responsive way that they're dealing with it just lurching from one Rriot to another bas thing. And Jen, mean the word pogrom has been used about some of the activity we've seen in Northern Ireland with people, I think nurses, non white nurses being stopped, trying to enter a hospital where they're on their way to work and ask for their nationality with some being allowed in and some not. I mean that is a shocking kind of scene we've not seen in this country for a very long time. We saw it in theriots in Middlesburough in twenty twenty four. there was footage of men stopping cars in the street during those riots and asking checking whether people were white or not Like it's a really, really dark thread that kind of runs through all of this. What was quite interesting when I was talking to people here last week to see what they thought about Nigel Farageer's intervention on the Henry Lvat murder and whether or not they thought that that was appropriate and whether it had gone too far which is the Southampton different Yeah. and Nigel Farage had intervened and essentially made a speech immediately and was then accused of sort of stoking tensions and exploiting it when the family had not wanted that to happen and had been very explicit about it Even among people who didn't necessarily think that he had done the right thing, the idea of two tier policing was one that was really seems to be very kind of within the consciousness of people that I was talking to. So I think that is a real view, which is out there turned to talk about Andy Burnham and at the Hustings. He did make this comment about having stuck by the Hillsborough families when in opposition and then when he went into power, doing right by them. He said he would do the same for the waspie women. this cohort of women born in the nineteen fifties who claimed that they were improperly informed about changes to the state pension age and therefore they have lost out in terms of their pension. They are claiming thousands of pounds each in compensation. Collectively the government thinks that any compensation could run up to ten point five billion Starmer has been absolutely clear in rejecting claims for compensation, although the government has apologised for the way that episode played out. Burnham this week said that he'd stick by them and that he was open to recompense for them It they used the word some recomens to name He did. His spokesperson then said that he was open to considering compensation before twenty four hours later rowing back on that and ruling out financial compensation And instead saying perhaps early access to concessionary travel, which is introduced in Greater Manchester, for example, for the cohort, or other sorts of schemes might be suitable Rry Miles here. I think he can't help himself from I think one characteristic of Andy Bernon that you can see throughout twenty years of him as a cabinet minister, a shadow minister who carried on serving under Jeremy Corbn and then as may is he likes to be liked And if there's a really tough, difficult decision that he's made where he's allowed himself to become unpopular over the years, I can't think what it is and maybe that's unfair. I'm open to hearing candidates for that. but I think when confronted with people wanting money for because something bad has happened. I think his first instinct is to say, well I'll listen to that. So the one I noticed last week was when I think on the newewsnight interview again, he sort of implied that the NX rise that occurred in the twenty twenty four budget, raising twenty billion p pounds, national insurance, that is He sort of implied that's something that he would like to look at if he ever becomes Prime mininister. He didn't promise to reverse it, but he's getting people's hopes up in a way that if he ever does become Prime Minister gets there, realizes there's basically no money. Is he going to let down a lot of these people whose hopes he's been inflating in recent days? I think student loans have come up a couple of times as well. What's he saying on student loans? Well he hasn't gone quite as far as the Wosp thing but hes sort of indicated You know, people struggling in the current student loan system, which is the government is under pressure to reform, have been treated abominantly unfairly by the Westminster Gvernment and it's awful and you know he supports young people, which then as you say, Jim sort of starts to raise expectations and then that has to be walked back And it's kind of like all you're doing is like storing up, storing up, storing up for things that people, even if you can come back later and say like, I never said I would do X, you are sending out signals, which then people raise expectations and then you end up having to deal with all about later But he may also think, well, Kiss Ammer came in twenty twenty with this list of ten really left wing concrete pledges that he wass going to do. Wellitally made all of themnt it for him. So maybe he thinks if Kirst Stomach can destroyed ten firm pledges and he can make half a dozen very, very vague suggestions of help. I honestly don't think it's that I mean totally, but I just don't think it's that thought through. I think he says things all bast in the moment sometimes and then lives to regret it. But I would say it has sparked a big backlash in the Labour Party, his waspie comments with people saying exactly what you remarked to Jim. know he can't say no to anyone. Another Labour MP messaged me to say, o, I see Andy Berham has lost the plot again. And Kir Stara ally said, this is precisely the version of the Labour partarty that Kir Starmer slayed to become Prime Minister tryrying to sort of basically liken Burnham's economic perspective to that of Jeremy Corbyn. And in fact, a compensation package for the Waspie womomen totaling almost sixty billion pounds had been promised by Corbyn at the twenty nineteen election. So I'm not surprised to see a backlash from the Labour Party. And being the Fancial Times, we're also very carefully tracking what the bond markets are saying about this and Gilt investors are also pretty downbeat on the prospect of a burn and premiership for this precise reason. But the only thing I would say is that if you compare even his partial promises he's made and his sort of whiff of more nationalization, which again is not a concrete promise at all. I think the way it compares to the actual Corbn agenda from twenty nineteen is incredibly thin grilled. If you are an actual left winger and if you listen to Andy Burnham and you hear him say I want to end forty years of neoliberalism. I mean that is going to massively get up the hopes of left wing people, left wing voters. And notothing he is promising is anything like as radical as most of the Corbyn McDonald agenda from twenty nineteen. You also get into dis armorerritory, don't you, where you end up actually pleasing nobody You know Oh Yeah know MP's on the left of Labour, I spoke to Rebecca Long Bailey, who's chair of the All partarty Parliamentary group on state pension inequality. She really praised Berham for coming out with his waspie signal of a spending commitment. And now he's had to walk it back. I'm sure she won't be terribly impressed. Exactly Let's talk a little bit about the Starmer fight backack that started this week. seemeems to have met the massive hurdle of his defence secretary resigning. But there'd been this sense last week that we talked about on the pod that the fight had gone out of Downing Street, the mood was really bleak and grim. Sam had tried at the beginning this week, Jim to call in the junior ministers, stiffen their resolve, look them in the eye, and make clear that if there is a contest, he isn't going to roll over, there isn't going to be some smooth transition. he will fight Yeah, so I don't think there's a dichotomy between these two things. I think the people around him have lost a fight and plenty of people in Downing Street and senior ministers think he's done for. But he himself, as far as I know is this incredibly competitive person who looks at Andy Burnham and thinks, you know, I was a shadow junior minister under you ten years ago and didn't think you were that great. Winning greater Manchester and possibly Makerfield is sort of like K Tharmer loves football analogies, he would say that as being like a lower division and he's a star player in a lower division, but is he really has he really proved himself in the Premier League in the way that K Tharmer is at least in the Premier League And I think he wants to take on this upstart and get in the ring with him and have a proper fight So I don't think he's lost the confidence, but you know, we've seen from past Prime minister. I don't think Boris Johnson lost faith in Boris Johson. it was everyone else who pull pulled the rope. So yes, Kist Stam had in genenie ministers and whips and sort of bad carriers on Monday And the message I'm told from people in the room that he conveyed was, know, I'm not perfect, but I am getting better in the job. You're getting better in the job. But if we pull the rug from under me, you might not even have a job let alone the opportunity for us to improve and work together. Ultimately we're still in a holding pattern. He's obviously privately praying that Andy Burnham messes up in make a field either loses or only wins by a narrow amount. You can see a scenario where Andy Burnnam wins by a couple of thousand and then the people around him suddenly s of gulp and sayled is this really the sense of momentum? But no Stum isn' in a bit of a holding pattern like the rest of us I don't know, I slightly think a win's a win. That's there's the breraaks in politics. If he wins by one vote, he's still beaten the competitors. I think, Jim My guess is it's a little bit like the reverse of the emotional reaction after the may the seventh election, right? where everybody knew what was going to happen on may the seventh. It was no secret for a long run up beforehand, but nothing could prepare you for the emotional impact of how terrible that was And then everything just went on fire. And I wonder whether the emotional impact of actually having somebody demonstrate that they can be reformed might be something that then kind of concentrates minds and actually sort of eases his roots. I completely agree with you though, Jim, that like You know, it's really personal between Kostarmer and Andy Burnham, like really, really personal. So like he is not going to make way for Andy Burnham unless it just becomes impossible and he absolutely has to. And can I ask you, what is the source of that?'' hest I've written something which probably will have run by the time we go out that sort of traces a little bit of the history of this. I think it probably goes back to Andy Burnham not initially agreeing to back him in twenty twenty for the leadership although he did in the end And then subsequently Andy kept sort of making these interventions that just kind of kept making K Dara's life difficult, right from two hundred miles away. So when Kay tried to suack, Angela Ryna in may twenty twenty one and made a mess of it and Angela ended up having a promotion off the back of it In the middle of all of that Andy Burnham kind of came out and went I don't support what he's doing here. I don't think that was forgotten. I think a series of py conferences in which Andy Burnham comes along and sort of has a little circus around the edge and comes out and sort of needles him and says things that are disloyal and then afterwards goes away and sort of says, like, well, I don't understand why anybody thinks that I'm being disloyal I think you know you know these things built up. There was a joke that Kir Aarmer told about him a couple of years ago at number ten Christmas drinks that I think went down very badly here. and that has kind of continued. this the joke about the bar? or is that another joke? It was a joke about football. Can you remember it? It was something it was to do with I think Uot had had some kind of lobby World Cup League thing going on and Andy had come hired and kissed armor in it And he said, Oh, it's a brilliant result for Uy. his boyhood team of Argentina managed to win, but having said that, his boyhood team of France lost and his boyhood teams of Moroccco and Croatia both drew, but he doesn't know his way to Westminster anyway or something like that. Which is a bit like a blare a brown out to walking into a b Exactly Darman says H high ending. which is essentially what the thing that I've written about what these jokes kind of tell you. I think if we're going to be absolutely fair here at the same time, I was watching it from up here and down in London, P Darman's people were issuing vicious briefings against Gandy Berham at the same time, right So the Su Grey briefly mended those bridges and then Sue Grey went away and I think we continued as we were. And we think Sue Grey may be helping. And we think Su Grey was bad. But the other thing' twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, which I totally forgotten Bham Shadow Home Sere Starmer and his team worked really closely together. There was a year or two during the Corbin years where the two of them worked together for whatever reason ten way. not Bessies. I think it's two hugely compassitive m into power bases at other ends of the country sizing each other up and Kiss ar and knowing damn well that Andrey Blden wants his job. Yeah. Shall we talk now about John Healley and his bombshell resignation on Thursday. Jen, I thought it was devastating his letter to the Prime Minister in which he accused the Prime Minister of being unable, unable to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend itself and accusing the treasury of being unwilling. basically saying StTar is too weak and Rachel Reeves is too obstinate to commit the money needed to keep the UK safe. Heley revealed that on Monday it was the first time in this months long process that he got the final settlement figure for the Defence Investment planan, which he'd hoped would be eighteen billion. It was right down at thirteen point five billion. and he was basically bounced with that figure just ahead of Starmer wanting to announce it later this week. And he he's made clear, lay down the gauntlet for Starmer saying that the headmark date for spending three percent of GDP on defence must be twenty thirtyort know significantly earlier than when Starmer has given a vague ambition of wanting to reach that stage, which he said is in the next Parliament, which could basically be as late as twenty thirty four. I have a question for you which is because you know the Healy MOD defendense much better than I didn' you'd be at the forefront of reporting on this whole defence investment plan. Do you think this is entirely healy believes passionately in this argument that we need to remilitarise and you know the threat from Russia, Or is there an element of personal ambition and Burnham coming back and politics? because weve become cynical when we do this job. What do you think that's actually happening here? It's a really good question. So wrote a profile of Healy, which I started work on speaking to people weeks ago, about six weeks ago when we were first talking about if Starmer's faltering administration collapsed, Wh might the party look to as a potential compromise candidate Aside from the bigger characters like Angela Ryna or West Street who were already in parliament. And John Healley's name was being you know passed around. That was definitely picked up by know some on his team, some of his supporters that you know he could potentially be in line as a future British prime Minister. So Look, I don't think we can rule out the sense that you know he has had an eye on his future fortunes. but you know knowing Healley well covering the defence beat, I would say you know I think everything I'm hearing from those around him and who know him well and have spoken to him and other parties in this extraordinarily agonised process, which has dragged on for more than six months, that you know he just thinks the number the money being offered cannot match up with you the promise the plan to modernise and strengthen the armed forces. And I think it's also worth pointing out quite an interesting element of the row is that when Healy won an initial uplift for defence spending last year, he managed to get that promise over the line from Starmer by saying to him, Look, if we do this early in the Parliament and bank the win Promiser won't do what defefense seecretaries always do, which has come back with the begging bowl. and yet he's had to do exactly that within months His argument has been that in fact, Staram has gone ahead and committed the UK to all sorts of other military initiatives, including the UK taking a leading role in post peace deal international forces in Ukraine. in the Strait of Hormers. the UK has just taken up a leading role in a new mission for NATO in the Arctic At the same time, the threat picture is rising, so we're seeing increased Russian malign activity. the Navy others are having to respond to. So the demands on defence are going up. So heali said, you know, when the facts change, you have to respond to that. And your profile dropped literally five hours before he quit. So perfect timing by someomeone on the news desks got to right. Quick update for post resignation. This is I mean, this is pretty nightmarish, isn't it Doma because I think I'm right in saying like this is as much as we're talking about him wanting to fight on, there also seems to be a kind of legacy vibe currently coming out of number ten. And this was sort of supposed to be some kind of S piece part of that, right? So it's about, you know, this is not ideal for that So let's fast forward ahead to next week. Let's imagine if reform loses the polls and the bookies think they're going to. I wondered whether that will mean, especially after losing Gon and Denton by election earlier this year A second loss, will that mean they're losing momentum as a party? And I put that question to Farage when he was in Makerfield on Wednesday. Liby Fisher Financial Times. Mr Farage, than you. Firstly, I wanted to ask you reform loss that G in a Denton by election earlier this year. If the party loses next week, arere you concerned that it might be losing momentum? Are we losing momentum That's all fensible Oh they're all behind mean, don't worry Have you seen the opinion p Jim, do you think that it could signal that reformers losing momentum if they lose the race next week? The reason I'm hesitating is because I think it's easy to forget just how well they did in the local elections. Yeah for them to do so well in Wales and Scotland for them to massacre labour and the Tories across England. I think that is still bigger than the two by elections. And I think it's very easy to write off Nigel Farge and it's very easy to do know the old advice about financial investment, which is that past performance is no guid to the fure. think We've got it so ingrained in our heads that the tourists and labour take turns governing Britain that I think some of us are not able to make the mental leap of well hang on they are actually ten points ahead or eight points ahead, whatever it is in the past and therefore they are still big and tough. And so if we imagine next Thursday that Berham wins What do we think might happen then? Seems to me from what I pick up, there's a bit of a split in his camp about whether he should go all guns blazing to challenge Starmer immediately and capitalize on his own momentum. or else to delay things and allow himself, his team, whoever they may be, to try and get their plans for government in better shape before any contest before entering Downing Street. And I was struck that one cabinet minister said to me, Look, as soon as he's imposed, it will be an immediate path into the next budget. It's a very difficult and important budget, which itself is a glide path to the spending review. He'll be very keen not to make an early mistake, so he might actually want more time before entering Downing Street. I think any allies of Berham who are currently in government are going to be particularly acutely aware of the list of problems that they're already dealing with pllus the difficulty of trying to get a budget through, right? Equally, you know, I've certainly come across several people as I think you have Jim who around Burnham who think he just needs to move quickly. Equally, you know, I spoke to somebody last night who just basically said, lookook, there isn't really a plan for what happens when he gets back down there It is essentially There will have to be a contest of some kind, potentially if Kisarma won't move, but does that just mean that they rely on some random stalky horse to come along and trigger that to happen like as Katherine West attempted to do a few weeks ago. I think my reading of it is that the answer is As is quite often the case actually with things around Andny Bernon during this campaign It's not clear The logic I was picking up from some of his MP supporters was At the moment he has this energy, it's an insurgent energy, it's an energy of coming from the North in order to knock down Kistama. If you win by a couple of percentage points or whatever it is and you come down to London and then you twiddle your thumbs and you think about the pros and cons of standing against Kistama, your sense of momentum and insertertain energy just vaporizes into thin air. And to me that's very compelling. I suppose the other points we haven't made are you you need a day or two to talk about make a filld and do some speeches prove that you do care about your new constituency, but you can get that done in a few days. There are people out there who are saying he needs to focus on Greater Manchester because one of the conditions of the NEC allowing him to stand in Makefield was that he did have to get involved in helping with the Greater Manchester campaign. problem with that is that if Labour loses in Greater Manchester, then once again that removes your kind of sense of urgency and direction. And it's no coincidence that there's a lot of starist friends and allies putting around this theory that surely Andy needs to do the Greater Manchester by election that that he caused before he goes on to anything bigger. It's Starmer's allies who are particularly putting around that theory. Yeah. And also I think you know there would be some potency to the argument if the greater Manchester Mor election was lost that Andy Burnham had just thrown Manchesterism under the bus for his own personal fament, right? And I'm sure Yeah. I'm That's why that's not a big morning to do. look around and these out. And then these momentum Yeah. So we've just got time left for political fixed stock picks. Jen, who are you buying or selling I'm gonna sell Lacey Powell the Deputy lead of the L Party. Because I'm told by multiple sources that at the beginning of Andy Berham's campaign, she had been essentially running a show and relations cooled, let's say, and it ended up being run by Louise Hay whichich is not to say that Lucy Powell wouldn't have some kind of role, obviously in an Andy Berham administration and she's clearly deuty leader, but it doesn't really show the power currently with her within the Andy Camp I'm going to sell Andy Burnham. You might have heard of him. I also saw him a month ago thinking that he might lose in Makerfield, and now obviously it looks like he's gonna to win. I still think he's worth selling because this is the most popular that he's probably ever going to be because he's had a decade of being able to blame central goovernment for everything, whilst taking credit for the local decisions he makes. And if and when you become Prime Minister, which is quite likely at the moment, he's going to have to confront a horrendous set of public finances, which also did for Rich unak And is about to probably do for Kir Stama. and without loads of money to lavish on stuff, it's really hard to stay popular. And on top of an already difficult set of public finances, we have the impact of Iran on those public finances, which means that tax rise is likely in the autumn budget. So I just have this vision of Prime Minister Andy Burnham coming in and being all charming and then p putting up taxes and everyone shouting at him Lucy, who are you buying or selling? J, I'm going to buy the former Defence Secretary John Heley. I think ultimately this will be viewed as an honourable resignation, him quitting because he couldn't get the funding settlement he thinks is the bare minimum required to overhaul the military and ensure you it's as strong as it can be to act as a deterrent and prevent conflict. And in resigning in this way, I think he's also kept his leverage high in a sense that any future plan for the military, For example, if Berham wins and becomes Prime Minister, you know Healley's verdict on any future plan will be a litmus test now. It will be a hurdle over which future prime mininisters have to jump. Well, that's all we've got time for. Jen, Jim. Thankks for joining Thank Lucy.'s nice, Lucy. We can now relax and enjoy pine. Yes. some pines And that's it for this episode of the FT's Political Fix. Don't forget to subscribe to the show. Plus, please do leave a review or a star rating. It really helps spread the word Political Fix was presented by me, Lucy Fisher, and produced by Peris Love My Manis Saraggosa is the executive producer. Original Music and Sound Engineering by Brene Turner The broadcast engineer is John Super Our global head of audio is Flo Phillips We'll be back with you next week in the studio for a Belection results special. See you then