Assessing the future of the Reform Party

Nigel Farage takes back control. tries to, at least Welcome to Political Fix. fromrom the Financial Times with me, Miranda Green standing in for Lucy Fisher while she's in Anchora covering the NATO summit and missing all the action back home Reform Party Leer Nigel Farage has just announced he is resigning as an MP in order to stand again in a by election in his constituency casting it as a battle against the establishment personersal vindication after some rocky weeks hit by a scandal over donations. With me here in the studio are our chief political commentator, Robert Shrimsley. Hello, Robert. I'm Riranda. And down the line from the FT cubbyhole in the Cons are political editor George Parker, deep in yet another day of high drama at Westminster. It's a politial office, man, Miranda.'m How are you really well and you know, the news gods keep raining on us, don't they George, what has been the reaction to Farage's surprise announcement today in the corridors of P Look, I mean, I think there was a sort of real sense of what the hell's he going to do? when this was announced at twelve o'clock by Nigel Ferari would be addressing the nation in inverse of commce at two o'clock But I think as the sort of dust that settles on this announcement. I think there's a bit of a rudging sense from some of his political opponents that he's made the best of an extremely bad job. I mean the bad job is that he's Obviously on the back fooot over these gifts, he's facing a parliamentary inquiry more revelations could come out and there's rumors that more revelations are about to come out 's possible that when When Andy Beren becomes Primeinister a week or T's time, Labour will get a poll bounce. form UK will then be second in the opinion polls. The whole narrative be around Nigel Farage running scared, reform in decline. The wheels coming off the bandwagon And giing these backs up against the wall to mix all my metaphors up, maybe, just maybe This was the best course of action for Nigel Farage. And I was speaking to one member of Andy Burnnam's team who said, you know, you've got to admire him for it.' what we would have done as well Robert, you've said this is probably the best gambit he could have you know, reached for in the circumstances, but he has been under a lot of pressure Will this work? this idea of a vindication through another win in Clton. and do you think his win in Clton is secure? Well, I think there are a couple of back in, I agree with what George just said I think he didn't have a lot of options and this looked like the best one try and get ahead of the story and take back the narrative. So there are a couple of gambles in it Number one, obviously is that he wins. I think it's reasonably likely in an ordinary by election that he would win. He got forty six percent of the vote last time. It's a very Brexity seat. So although there are variables, I think you'd think he has a pretty decent chance. The big question And the one we don't yet know the answer is what the other parties are going to do. Because I think the temptation must be if you're labor or the consonservatives be to look at this and go, Well, Wang, we're not going to play your game. We're not going to give you weeks of attention in the by election. We're in fact not going to field candidates. We're going to say this is a silly gimmick And we're waiting for the outcome of the parliamentary inquiry and you're not getting off the hook. that easily. off course then you have the issue. Well even so, he'll still have his by election win, and then he'll say you're going to waste time with another by election if I get found guilty the Stanl' inquiry, but I think that's the big question is, do they fight this contest? And that will I think affect our own judgment on how good a play this has been even though I think it was the only one available to him. I think the bigger issue whether this kills all of the stories about him, and I don't think it will In fact, I think it's going to make it worse in a way because We're all going to talk about his finances even more. And although for wee for week for across the summer. This is like it's a very Donald Trump play. You lean into this. in the self pitying tone of his statement is I'm a victim of an establishment stitch up here because the establishment gave me the five million pounds rather than a Thie based crypto billionaire, apparently. I think UK is less forgiving than the US about personal enrichment. So I'm not sure in the end he's going to come out of this a lot better except for the fact that he's tried to take control of the narrative. So George, can you just explain for our listeners exactly why This was an option that he decided to take. This is preempting another potential byelection down the line, right? But as Robert alluded to, you could end up in a weird scenario with two by elections in Clactton this year. Yeah, that's exactly the scenario that Kemy Bayen or the consonservative leader has been talking about earlier on today because The situation is that he's facing this parliamentary inquiry if the parliamentary inquiry decides that he should have disclosed details with this five million pound gift from the crypto investor Chropher Harbourne then he could be suspended from the House of Commons for I think is said minimum of ten days. may be suspended for more than ten days then his constituents can and almost certainly would trigger a recall election, a by election And so the fact that Farage is calling this by election now is preempting that inquiry. So it's entirely possible that he has this by election, he wins the by election comes back to Westminster. The inquiry concludes for these broken the rules he is suspended for ten days And then there's another by election. And Kemmy Bayennot was saying, Well, this is a ludicrous situation. We're going to Why not wait until the outcome of the inquiry? And to pick up Robert's point about whether parties will contest this. Listen to Kemmy Payor. she's just been the last hour answering questions about this, you're saying gimmick that he's running scared, he's cracking up We don't want to waste the people of Taxionsons's time and taxpayers' money by having two by elections I thought she was nodding quite clearly towards the idea of the Tories fielding a candidate. So you could end up a situation Farage, as you say, is dogged by questions about his finances through a by election which he's called, which no one else is contesting apart from possibly Count buckethead or whatever his name is. Bin face to you, George. Count Binface. C Count Bin face now. And you know that he will be chased around the streets of Plactton in his meaningless byia election facing lots of questions about the thing they he doesn't want to talk about. And just to pick up oneorge's point, Tories, I think are the key players in this conversation because they're the second place party in Clacklland. If the anti Frage vote is going to coales around a party, it would be the Conservatives. So if the Tories opt out of it, the other big players are likely to do so as well. So that's really interesting, isn't it? Because first out of the, you know, out of the blocks When Nigel Farge made his announcement was the Green Party saying, yes, they would stand. al I think all the other parties don't seem to have quite made up their mind. Rore Rupert Lowe's party, which of course, was a threat to the Fage and reform vote in Makerfield, as we saw in June in that by election They seem to say that they would definitely stand, which could be a problem for Farage, eat to his vote But now they seem to be saying they won't. George there is a scenario in which it becomes a very strange battle on the right Yeah, I mean, the latest state of players that restore are saying they won't contest this by election. I wonder whether this is going to set the trend for what's going to happen in the coming days because Marichelfarge could end up looking quite stupid. I think he's already offered by the way, to meet the costs of this by election, which some people have estimated two hundred and fifty thousand s or thereabouts. He knows somebody who's good for him. Yeah He's got better contacts than the rest of us. He wanted to fund something like that. Yeah What do you mean hard working entrepreneurs? This is the sort of people this country needs, George But he could end up in this ludicrous situation where he's in this contest which no one else is actually fighting. With the prospect of a second by election hanging over Nevertheless, So it may not look quite as clever as I was if I was early on saying that people were quite ad biring of what he's done I think it grabs the narrative, as Robert was saying for few days, but if I One day I mean, we don't know what the Tories is going to do And Roberts, That's right that what the Tories do is absolutely key And they're still having discussions about what they're going to do. But if they don't stand I think if I was in their position, I wouldn't put a cate up against him. And I think also I mean, you know, you've got a new prrime mininister coming in Part of Farage's calculation will have been He's going to get no attention for a while anyway. Andy Bernam's going to hog all of the attention And what attention he doesn't hold is probably going to be taken by Kemy Badnock opposing him He needs that attention. He needs the momentum. and people focusing on him. So a by election looked like which he was likely to win, looked like a good play to get both another election victory, which you could use and the attention But if this now suddenly becomes like a silly sid show and the media doesn't bother turning up because everyone knows the result. The only people who turn up are investigative journalists seeking answers to questions about his finances. And by the way, let's not forget, it's not just the Chropher Harbourne thing. know In the last few days, there have been revelations about donations in kind from a convicted fraudster, who everyone refers to as Posh George Um So it just he could end up looking very foolish in this by election. Meanwhile, Andy Burnham's taking over the country and trying to do serious things. It can backfire. So interesting, we should just point out to listeners as well that Clackton is not representative of the rest of the UK, right? It's a special case far to the right of the British electorate as a whole Aearge got forty six percent of the vote last time And even sort of all the left ander left votes clubbed together are only about sort of twenty five percent of the popular vote in Clackton. And historically it elected UKIP MPs. you know, it was It was the seat that Douglas Coswell when he defected from the Conservatives Um forceder by election, won it and then went on to win it again in the general election. So it's as Brexity a seat as you get. It's as Brexy as they come. Yeah. But also Just just one thing Rand I should say about It's obviously in the county of Essex, which is traditional Torory heartlands. this is an area where where you have Chemyae Nxes, Safrin Walden, you've James Cleverly seat, Pristy Patel seat, Bernard Jenkin I mean, this is rock solid Tory territory or at least it used to be, but the Tories were annihilated in the local elections for Essex County Council U just a few weeks ago So reform, as you say, are on the march in Essex or they have been. But one thing that I find really interesting about Clackton, this is a really interesting test case And our colleague, Rachel Reesees down there at the moment is that part of the Claton constituency is the community of Jaywick which for four years in a row has been Britain's most impoverished neighborhood Now I find it really interesting. this idea Th Nigel Farge is going to have a bie election. central. feature of which is the five million pounds gift and other gifts He's been given which would be beyond the dreams of people in Jwork, even if they live seven or eight lifetimes, you know It It's a curious thing to appeal to the voters of the poorest neighborhood in England back you on. It's a really intriguing point, isn't it? how he wins with that rock solid base of reform supporters because talking to the pollsters this week We've been saying that what reform needs to do nationally is to move from that of you know, fifteen percent they got in the last election up to thirty percent. How do they do that? They need to win over a whole bunch of people who aren't their bedrock support and who are put off by these questions of probity and where does the money come from and the crypto millionaires and all the rest of it But actually that bedrock support as you point out, George is often in some of the porst places in the UK. alsoso, I think you have to remember, you know, there is a generally skeptical view of all politicians at the moment So you Voters tend to think that all politicians are in it for themselves and corrupt. Although the numbers are much more huge, essentially, they think this is what all politicians are like, unfortunately So it's intriguing. I do want to leave us with the idea though that during all of the kind of end of the summer. parties in Westminster, there has been a lot of gossip over the last week or so about Are you ready for the Clackton by election This is not what people had in mind. They had in mind the one at the end of the parliamentary investigation which would have been Farj being forced to contest or reform being forced to contest a by election having been found you know wanting in terms of the rules on transparency on donations The idea of a fight has been in the air As we've said, F I has tried to preempt it by going now George, what's your feeling? Do you think in the end, this sort of fight for the right will be settled by this this move on Fage is Or will we just be back where we were before with him reinstalled as the MP for Clackton and the fight versus Kemmy Badenoock's Tories And rep putads restore unresolved L, I don't mean the Clecton by election 's going to settle the battle for the right partly, as we were discussing, because it's possible Part of the right won't be take part in the battle if Kemi Bot decides not to put up a candidate Um On the face, my initial reaction was this is quite a clever thing for Farage to do, given Yeah know, he's in a very sticky situation at the moment. But it's possible that we will look back on this Thats one has a quirky summer diversion which we remembered as one of the weirdest by elections since David Davis resigned in his seat over What was it detention without trial? What was that b election about Was it ID cards? orr I think you're right? I think it was detention. Detention with that trial. It was a sort of, you know, liberal values cil liberties issue and he resigned into. It could go down It's kind of kind of a trivia question that Stephen Bush will be answering in thirty years time. I was this b election held. So I'm not sure it's going to be as decisive as all that might be clever, but strategically may be a mistake by far. So even though likely to be a win It may not be a true win or enough of a win. And as you wrote today, Robert, that's what he needs. He needs some more wins because the Makerfield by election was taken as a little bit of a disappointing setback I mean, I think it's some It's exactly as you as but You and Georgeia both said, I think it's it felt like the best play available to him, but that doesn't mean it's a great play either way We've just got time for a very quick political stockpick. It's traditional, even for this break glass and emergency edition of the political fix. I'm going to preempt you both by saying I'm selling the Green partarty being so quick to say they would stand a candidate and not really thinking, okay, what is the terrain of this by election And might there be a better way to defeat Nigel Farz's attempt to rescue his reputation. sort of showed a certain amount of political naivety. Yeah. Robert, who are you buying or selling? Well, I'm going to sell Farage. I think this is I think this is not going to work. I think that although For the reasons we've discussed, it was the best option for him I think in the end it's not going to look good And I think actually he's looked a bit rattled And there was a line I saw Kemmy Badnock delivering today where she said, lookook how he's responding under pressure. He's not even near to being Prime mininister yet. He looks narky and rattled. and the questions about the money aren't going to go away. I think at the end, he's not going to emerge from this whole saga stronger. Well we should say that when he said he was going to address the nation at two PM There was a certain amount of speculation about whether he might say he was walking away from politics altogether. I thought he was getting his scrutiny was too much. I thought he was getting Gerald Quon's red card revoked. George, who are you buying or selling? Welland, I'm going to show the decisiveness shown by Prince Harry and his accommodation requirements in London by saying that initially I was going to say I was going to buy Farage But the more I think about this, the more I am inclined to agree with Robert that time has time to dump. Farage stocks. Look, he's going to spend going to win this by election, whether the Torys test the seat or not But he's going to end up, I think, looking like a bit of a sad person forcing his Treaty Go to the poles on a ludicrous sitch proposition and spend the whole summer being Tit was tracked around the streets of Clton and Jaywick. by Michael Crick and he probably deserves it. On the upside he is by not being an MPin, he is going to free up minutes from his week Well you'll have to wait for the regular episode of Political Fix for a real deep dive into what this means for the Reform Party And it's fortune's not just Ngel Fg as an individual, but that's it for this episode, this emergency episode, the FFT's political fix If put links to subjects discussed in this episode in the show notes, do check them out. They're articles we've made free for political fixed listeners The political fix was presented by me, Miranda Green and produced by Peris Love. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer Original Music and Sound Engineering by Brene Turner O broadcast engineer was Andrew George Aarddis, and the FT's global head of audio is Flo Phillips. We'll meet again here later this week with Lucy back in the hot seat