Defense spending and government failure

The circumstances around the final moments of a murdered eighteen year old have escalated into a major political row this week. Labour insists the politicisation of the Southampton tragedy is unforgivable. The reform UK insists the incident speaks to deeper concerns about racial fairness and accountability Welcome to Political Fix from the Financial Times, with me, Lucy Fisher. Coming up, the politics of the Novak case, the Battle for Makerfield, and what both tell us about the pressures building on the government. I'm joined in the studio by my FT colleagues, columnist and writer of the insside pololitics newsletter, Stehen Bush. Hi, Stephen Hi, Lucy. Deputy opinion editor, Miranda Green, Hi Miranda. Hello, Lucy. And public pololicy editor Chris Mth. Hi Chris. Hi, Lucy. Stephven, let's talk about the murder of eighteen year old Henry Novak. It's been a lightning rod issue in British politics this week as many different parties have sought to draw lessons or generalize from the incident To run through the facts very briefly, Henry Novak was stabbed. by Vikram Diggwar, a British Sikh However, as Henry Noak, the victim lay bleeding, dying, he was handcuffed and arrested by the police and that's because Victrim Diggois had complained that he was the victim of a racial assault. His brother had backed up that claim And therefore, the police believed that they were coming into a situation of a racial assault rather than a stabbing Give us your really neat take that you spelt out in insideolitics about what this is and isn't about So I've covered a lot of police misconduct cases. and I think what this is about is not about as some have said differential treatment because the The victim was white and his assailant was brown skinned sk It is about how police treat suspects. Now because Virim Dig were the murderer told this evil lie via the means of a nine hundred ninety nine call And if you're the police and you turn up, you assume ass your base case because of course, The vast vast majority of nine ny nine calls are the caller's best understanding of the truth That's your assumption that that leads to how you see this at the moment of that phone call Paor Henry became a suspect And he was therefore treated and dismissed as a suspect Dark. his shirt was dark They made a preemptory check fifty nine seconds after arriving when he said he'd been stabbed couldn't immediately find his wounds and then to him in a way that I'm afraid to say, when you read cases about deeaths in custody, they are often of that kind suspect says, I feel sick The police officer who in their defense will experience a lot of time suspects lying about their condition or feeling that they're worse than they are because they're on a come downown from drugs or alcohol or both. The police will dismiss that or do a profunctory check as we saw And that will often be the final thing that happens. Now it is true to say, of course, that the pathologist said that it would not have been enough to save him had they not received that lie in the nine hundred and ninety nine call, but it did mean that his final moments were spent in incredibly distressing circumstances. So what I think this scandal about is about how we treat suspects. That's not to say that everything about how the government approaches, how it manages race relations and ethic disparities is always good or the police are above reproach. But I think in this specific story, what we are seeing is about how suspects are treated and how rightly, of course, a nine hundred and ninety nine caller is mostly treated as someone who is an honest broker Thank you for explaining exactly what you think this is about. and we'll come back to maybe other questions that are valid to ask around ethnic disparities in the UK. Miranda, it's had a huge political fallout in particular, has been seized upon by reform. Nigel Farage called an emergency press conference on Tuesday morning following the sentencing and the release of that bodycam footage, which Stephen referenced. I don't know if you guys have looked at it. I found it almost intolerable to watch such such a painful incident Tell us more about how reform have leapt on this and in the eyes of other political parties seek to weaponize a tragedy So I think it's not been a lot of people's finest hour. Let's put it that way Certainly, the idea of Nigel Farage deciding he wants to address the nation in this very dramatic way, off the back of this case and of of everyone's revulsion how those last moments of you know, this young man's life played out was seen as Wful and very negative opportunism by M Fuder's political rivals And there's clearly a reading of it, which I would say is a fairly obvious reading of it which is that Reform now knows they are under pressure from another party even further to the right, Rupert Low's Restore And this was a sort of opportunity po Nigl Farg to sound N just tough on law and order, but to play into kind of suspicions about policing. of faith in way the police do their job from those who think that DEI Diversity equity and inclusion policies have sort of distorted the public realm to the detriment of how citizens are treated. And I think that for him It was an opportunity almost, as it were, too good to miss. I mean, I'm putting, you know words into his head. I don't feel that clearly because I think the right reform themselves, but also sort of even further to the right. if you look at the support that Rupert Le's restore is now getting from across the pond from Elon Musk specifically on X. There's been an attempt by the right to kind of import a sort of race lens. from American politics has been very polarizing it hasn't quite worked yet. There's been signs of some of it working and we've all been kind of quite worried about that aspect of our new political conversation. But I think this week it really sort of catapulted to another level. And then of course, other party leaders Every other party leader condemned Iidel Farge for calling for rage in response to the case including the conservative leader Kemmy Maidenock and the various people in reform then tried to make it a story also about Kemmy Badnot not standing up for white victims of crime or of police mistakes So it's got very, very heated between all of the parties on the right and then with Kar Starmer and everyone further to the left, sort of united in It my horror at how much Farge was using this case. I think that's a sort of fair description of the landscape. And at the middle of it is the victim's family appealing to all politicians not to use it weaponize it to use your word at all because what they want is a sort of national conversation about knife crime and about the plethora of stabbings that affect young lives, so appallingly Chris, as Miranda have hinted out there, Niger Farage's call for pure cold rage has been framed as an incitement to violence by some of his critics. and indeed, we did see Civil unrest, disorder, violence against the police erupt in Southampton where Henry Novak, the student who was murdered lives looks like it's simmered down Were you surprised by how hard Farage leant into this? Is this a new frontier or pushing of the boundary by reform. Well, I was in one respect, because if you look at Farag's career over three decades now, his success has come from walking the tightrope of never allowing himself to be outflanked on the right successfully or also remaining within the bounds of acceptability to mainstream Now, he claims credit for helping kill off the far right British National Party in the two thousands. some justification, but that has suddenly gotten an awful lot harder with the rise of restore. And he has been moved a long way to the right on things like mass deportations, which he always said were completely implausible and impractical, not to mention slightly dubious, M he has now enthusiastically embraced because he' felt he had no choice because that idea was becoming so popular amongst restore supporters and online. He has found himself in the similar position that Labour now is facing a challenge from both the left and the right, not knowing which direction to tack in order to get the most support or where it would lose him most voters in the other direction. So it is, I think a big challenge for him , as you hinted out there, probably the reason for this change has been driven by social media. I mean, these mobs emergeed not because of I think directly what Farage said, but because it was all over different social media sites. And you Restore its leader Rupert Low who is a former reform andP fell out with Farraage. Now I don't think Anyone seriously believes that they are at seven percent in the polls because of Rupert Lowe's natural charisma. I mean, you know, this guy's been around for a long time, Ironically, he used to own Southampton foootball cllub But the party has become popular because it's got this far right energy online that he is sort of riding a wave off but doesn't really I think is not really in charge of. And so you've seen Kar Starmin aggressively go for Elon Musk promoting these far rights theories but blatedly that is politics or Labour's point of view, Mask is probably the only person in far less popular than Starmer himself Um, but, you know, it does show that the Politics is being reshaped by theseort social media curnt and it get back to that big battle of who is ultimately in charge of what goes on in these places. Just dwelling for a moment on Labour and Starmer's response. Stephen, I thought that Prime Minister's questions, Starmer rose to the moment in condemning Farage's response calling for a sense of calm. We know it was one of the first major challenges he faced when entering Downing Street back in twenty twenty four, that summer of riots that broke out in towns, particularly across the North and Midlands England, How do you think his response overall has been here? And I know you think that the wrong lessons have been drawn from the specifics of this incident. But if we step back, are there issues around policing or guidance or even more widely in society some of the issues of DEI that Miranda pointed to, that people have drawn up that need to be addressed I think it is very hard to sustain the argument in evidence that there are problems in policing of over adherence to Woc called EI, I did However, I think it is unquestionably true that under Kst Am's both the leadership of the Low Party and as Prime Minister that in twenty twenty, the Labour Party made a number of promises and absorbed without any critical analysis some quite in my view pooky ideas about A what racism was and B how you combat racism U And that's also true of ye, the then conservative government which has led, I think, particularly to labor, for example still formerally have a commitment to the idea that we need to and the disproportionate ininverted commments. use of sectioning under the Mental Health Act The thing is, yes, it is true that if you are black, you are four times more likely to be sectioned under the Mental Health Act than if you are white However, it is also true that most people who are sectioned are sectioned in the first third of their lives The average ethnic minority in the United Kingdom is ten years younger than the average white Britain, evenven though at a high kind of you look at the detail and they go, look, we understand some disparities are not racism I think the signal from the top of all disparities are bad does have a chilling effect, particularly in the NHS and in some aspects of mentaly. And I think we're starting to see some quite problematic language around exclusions. So that's exclusions of children from primary and secondary school. where I mean one, it is a repeated trope than primary school and secondary school exclusions are disproportionately bllack and minority ethn pups They do disproportionately affect one ethnic minority, which is people from a Gypsy Rro or traller background. But this talking point you see repeatedly aired by labour politicians disproportionately targets black people is a real triper whammy because it's like actually a slightly racist stereotype. It's like guys, where if you've got the idea then black kids are more likely to be kicked out of school because it ain't from the data And I think Labour's weakness on that topic is part of what has created the opportunity for Farage to do grievance politics about this case. whereereas I've set out, it isn't really about about that And I think it's quite striking that just as at the start of his leadership, Kissed Armour was very pervious to crazes from bits of the far left. This has been a government which has been incredibly reluctant. Yes, I have this very that very strong response to the riots in twenty twenty four But you know in twenty twenty five, they were incredibly reluctant to call a spade a spade. And I think it's the same underlying problem of essentally an attude of like, what will it take to make these people stop shouting at me? When can I leave the room And that has led to some very unhelpful anti racist policies, and it's led to some very unhelpful emboldening of racists as Prime Minister, but I think it all has the same underlying cause, which is woolly thinking on the part of the Primeinister and those around him Miranda. I mean, I agree with you, Lucy, that I thought that PMQs this week was kind of extraordinary. And um You know, you could almost feel the rest of the house ganging up on Nigel Farage. kind ofight Yeah, exactly. This is social media This is the issue, I think. it's a bit like that famous question time where they had Nick Griffin of the BNP. Do you remember, which became a kind of call celebra about how do you deal with something problematic that's newly in the political conversation that had always previously been ruled outside what's acceptable And you know, we're going to find out, aren't we whether that's actually the best way to deal with it in the commons. But I mean, you felt that there was palpable outrage on both sides. There was palpable outrage from all of those MPs asking Nigel Farage repeatedly to condemn the violence. which she signally fail to do And also from Nigel Farage representing all of those people who seem to feel very, very strongly, whatever particular case and its circumstances because people don't actually want to talk about this particular case as much, they want to generalize Fromat And so that's what he is Feeding from and feeding in a sort of, you know, cycle that's helping him politically. And I think, you know, it's partly about the policy issues that Stephen talks about, you know wrong dayt turn, all the rest of it But it's also partly about the fact that the whole of the rest of established politics does not know how to deal with this This phenomenon on the right. And it's become more and more acute in the ways that Chris has described as Farag has found himself pulled onto Rupert Lowesque territory in the last months. And I think I guess you know, part of the resentment that ar and low draw on perhaps has come from the way in which know the public sector particularly has tied itself in knots over some of these ideas in recent years, particularly since twenty twenty and trying to import these ideas and saying equity is more important equality and train in a way that you can have arguments about, but actually have been reported in a slightly panicked and not fully thought through way that just come across to a lot of voters but hold on a second. What does that mean? And in practice, it's not necessarily But but as Stehen said, if you really look at the data, it is much more complex than certainly more complex than Fargs would say, but also more complex of those who would say, well, you know, racism is always the answer. And so attempting to have a cool passionate look at this is always a good idea, but extremely difficult in this context because you know the sort of slightly mangled way in which both sides have used this has really fed into argument where it feed that politics of readent on both sides. Yeah On that point, we've examined Kestama's approach We should also point out that this is a big test for Andy Berham, what he says too, given that he's vying to enter Downing Street and needs to be able to rise to big national moments this Is there a sense in which this incident reveals what's really at stake in the Labour leadership debate that you know whoever takes over, if there is a challenge to Starmer, needs to be able to prove to voters that the system is still working for them or certain quarters Well, absolutely. I mean, the underlying causes of the anger have not fundamentally changed. They're the same as they were ten years ago, peopleople voted for Brexit. they feel that things are getting worse for them and they're continuing to get worse. The opportunities aren't there. lifeife is getting harder A is getting squeezed, public services are getting worse. And for many people that has remained true for for a decade. And you know until and unless some government can do something about that, people are going to get angryer and keep getting frustrated and losing patience with that government and saying let's try something new. And you know Starmer came in effectively saying, I get it, we're going to do growth at all costs. It's my number one priority. You know, it turned out to have a lot of asterisks on that subject to all kinds of other things and the plan hasn't hasn't worked. Soever takes over I mean, I think we may be about to have another coronation if Andy Burnhamin in Makerfield, But that debate about actually what would it take? to We saw faith in mainstream, you, frankly, in democratic politics for people who for entirely understandable reasons have lost faith in it over the past decades has still not really been had Partly because we keep getting distracted by things like this. There are I think two important battles going on in British politics. There's the can the Labour Party reviving government recover from its nightmare dark and defeat. reform at the next election. But actually in terms of the future health of our liberal democracy. the most important thing is the battle on the right. does something like the Conservative Party as it stood in twenty twenty four survive or does it either die or have to, you know fold into reform or kind of become sort of like a weird sort of remnant in a handful of the wealthiest and most rural seeds Tit, of course, that is also the challenge for the Labour Party, but broadly speaking, if you look across the world kind of run a functioning liberal democracy without a centre left party Yeah, they' are nice to have Um If you don't have a functioning center right party in a democracy you get into very real problems very quickly. becausecause broadly speaking, the right tends to be more successful than the left electorally And historically who is the politician who did the most to beat back Pism Andy Kock Powell. It was Ted Heath who took real political damage to to Saki Nock Powell. He was far more popular with the public than Nigel Farage or Rupert Low or Ristore. do real damage to Ted Heath's standing in the country. It actually probably although she obviously and comomfortably in nineteen seventy nine. It probably did do damage to Mgaret Thater electerally that she ignored those who were saying, oh, you know, let's bring him back into the party. let's put him in the shadow cabinet again And it's only if you have that robust wall on the center right that this stuff can be beaten. and that is a to where it's much more difficult, I think, to see How can be turned around given H the state the ye the Conservives as it stands, are on course to be the second largest party of the right in local government by the end of this Parliament Can I turn to a subject that I'm very interested in? I've spent a lot of time also thinking about writing about and talking to about this week, which is electoral reform? because It's an issue that has gathered momentum since the twenty twenty four general election, which was the most disproportionate in British history The Labour Party won roughly almost two thirds of seats with just over one third of votes Since then, the situation is even worse because you've got labour and the Tories between them on about a third of the vote share, but having about eighty percent of the seats in the Cons And obviously Andy Burnham has made clear that he believes in proportional representation. That's been a longstanding view of his And he's sort of given an interview at the weekend saying that you know he wants a national commission on which voting model to remind listeners that proportional representation is a concept. It's not an actual voting system of which there are many many incredibly knaughty variants. But it ss like he wants to really press ahead with this, doesn't it? He wants to put a pledge in the next manifesto if he wins the Makeerfield by election, if he enters Downing Street to do this. And that could have all sorts of unexpected consequences. And one of the arguments that I heard presented from Labor MPs against the idea this week along with the idea that it can lead to weaker governments along with the idea that it can weaken local links depending on which variant you had John Speller, the Labor veteran, was saying to me irst past the post, one of its key merits to his mind, is that it keeps out extremists. He thinks it's kept out the ultra left and the ultra right from Parliament. Stepen andiranda, you're shaking your head. I genuinely actually admire bone headed the Labour Party is sometimes. But this is a party which helped to inflict on us the twenty nineteen genereral election in which the choice between two viable parties was between Coron ey economics and the hardest of hard Brexits led by Boris Johnson.ry Can John explain to me what the non extreme choice that first passast the post was opefully keeping out as it stands for the strong government of the last few years that this is supposed to have delivered was not he was not making that argument. And I think that's one reason that the debate has moved on because it looks like we're in a fragmented political system for which that's the pressure on the current system has become unignnorable. And that's why the conversation has reached a pitch. I mean, back to Stephen, but you know whether that actually means there will be a change in. say b to me on electoralform I don't know. I think Iour as an hour. I probably go blow by blow for you on that particular but I still think it's more likely that the politics folves to fit the system rather than the other way round. and we are obviously in a period of flux. We have had those in the past where the parties have broken up and ended up reforming along different lines to ensure that someone can majority in the first p pass the post system. I mean, leaving aside whether Andy Bernam you'll stick to what he says, which you know there's a checkered history in that regard. And of course, Kir Starmer pledged to move to PR to when he was trying to win the labour leadership and then Well indeed. Loston as you question do get quickly into a discussion of the T system. Do we want alternative votes? single transferable a topic which most voters can't incredibly tedious to think on earth you talking about this when know the bills are going up? So to actually get it done is difficult. we had a referendum about on this fifteen years ago, it was very heavily defeated on the alternative vote system, which if you are going to do it, I think would be my view is still the most sensible way of doing it. so I think ultimately. Although of course a lot of the purists wouldn't vote for AV because it's not truly proportional. this is exactly v. this is what you already as a political activist was the twenty eleven was yes toAV, went out on a real h. So I think all I remember is I was at a party getting very upset and someone was like, o said They said, Do you actually really like Avie? And I was like, Yeahah, of course I never vote for anyone. I only ever vote against. and it's a much more effective way of doing that. And they said they said, why are you a member of a political party then? I was like, Oh actually that's a good point. And so yeah bowed out on in your future career. Yeah bowed out on a real high. But whether it happens or not, I think is interestnteresting, right. In fact, we had a very good piece in the FT this week from versus Tim Bale. who's an enthusiast and who does feel that you know the fragmentation of our party system means that it's a sort of moment of of opportunity, but you know, his words of caution should be heeded because You know, he suggests, perhaps if Berham as leader was to put it in the Labour manifesto and if every other party who professes to enthuse for electoral reform also put it in their manifesto, you could have a sort of a, you know, effective joint mandate next time. But is that really okay? You know, we've now had several referenda on constitutional matters. The precedent' kind of been set to do it without a referendum. does that pass the sniff test politically? I mean I mean declared my part has an interest on this one I'm afraid I very much have the the Tories went into the last election saying they would take away supplementary vote for police and crrime Commissioners without a manifesto and therefore, I think the The taboo has been broken pol everyone ca. We had a Dahnt system in Wales, I believe. So you know. can I say but what about Reform and Farraage? because they put in their last twenty twenty four manifesto that they would have another referendum on moving to a more ortional system Since then, Nigel Farage gave an interview last year, pointing out that there is a point that when first past the post, which can be your enemy moves to become your friend. And it looks like reformers potentially around that inflection point if it, you know manages to return to its topiest polling numbers of sort of thirty one cent, right? So a form could yet shift on this matter. about friend the first boss of the post is a cruel mistress, isn't it? Because if you're riding high, you reach a tipping point as the SNP did you know, and everyone falls in front of you And you if you're just shy of that, you can do incrediblely your' thir five percent and thirty percent is absolutely huge. I mean, Chrisce. Chris I think is exactly right that People understand how our electoral system works and at the risk of looking very stupid in twenty twenty nine. I don't think that our current level of fragmentation will obt I don't know who the beneficiar is if it does happen in twenty twenty nine. you're going to have a period of chaos then consonsolidation will have to m I think precisely why John Speller is wrong is that First pass the post could create a very powerful reform government in a way that It is highly unlikely that that politics is going to get to fifty percent of the vote Buss one So it is going to have to seek some form of coalition ways The right wing of the liiberal Democrats with the Conservative partarty, both of which would be moderating forces. on it just as look. Ultimately, If Kiss Armor was having to do deals with Ed Davy There would not be as many stupid wealth taxes have created Yeah, that have undermined their alleged Focus on growth. It feels like if reform wins a majority at the next election believe that their commitment to PR will survive it. Ditter, although I think this is one of the issues that Andy Burnham is does sincerely have religion on, the other I think being adult social care I think Chris is exactly around the dynamics. and if he turns around Labours fortunes to the point that There's still a labor majority. I just think that the labour opponents of PR will be strong enough to at the very least force a referendum. It'll be a third term issue. Well also, I think, you know principle aside political gravity of the self interest of MPs wanting to keep their seats on slim majorities will also get into play. And sh it through the lords. You' it through the lords, which I'm not sure would be necessarily that difficult, but I do think it's worth noting that More than sixty Labour MPs signed an amendment to the repepresentation of the People Bill last month backing PR. And when you take out all the front benchers whips and those on the payroll who can't vote. that is a significant number of labour MPs now pushing for change. And of course, the Labour Party membership massively backs the idea s But the fragmentation does mean that you could get the parties may split and reconfigure it in different forms if not before the next election, then afterwards. I mean, you know, the Farouh Union Party argument, know it's powerful to him, but there is a certain sense in which it does make sense for certain types of tories and certain types of labour to be in one party and reform and restore to be in another. And as well as the fragmentation, the other huge thing now is the volatility of the electorate, which means people change their mind about who they're going to vote for all the time. So they may come back into the fold or move across in enough numbers that it looks much less fragmented This week the Burnham juggonal continues to gather pace. I should say excitingly. We will be doing the podcast from Makerfield next week. I'm going up for a few days. Jim Williams and Jim Picard will also be there, so we'll be broadcasting from a local pub Pis, our producer has found Before then, I'm interested in what you guys are hearing from all the Labour MP's who've been campaigning on the ground themselves. They're pretty confident now that Burnham is going to win, even though it's always a little bit unpredictable in a by election, And Chris, we've been picking up some of the mood in Downing Street, It's pretty bleak. Many of those around Star, I think it's a fetaomple. He's going to be out Stahmer himself is said to be looking now. list of issues he wants to address One of which is social media ban, the EU summit, getting his defence package over the line What are his chances of success there? Well, I mean I think to take them in turn on the social media ban, it's kind of a classic staraay to go out and it's something he didn't want to do has sort of spoken against and is gradually being dragged to do it to the point where he's going to claim it as his legacy. I mean, I think generally they're not quite sure what they're going to do yet, but all of the politics is heading in that direction is theyre quite fast unless something emerges from Australia that really is a killer argent to say this is actually ative think they'll probably end up doing it because they're clearly going impose some quite serious restrictions on social media for under sixteen. So if you're doing that, why take the political hit of not doing a b And it's still going all guns blazing on the Oxford Cambridge arc. you've been reporting on that? Yeah, I mean, he sees interesting well, you know And Andy Berham sort of goes around saying the North has been ignored. What has Rachel Res been doing this week? She's been praising the Oxford Cambrge art investing hundreds of million pounds in buying up sites in Cambridge to build houses, saying, this is where our economic growth is going to come from and the state needs to play its role. And yeah, there is a clear logic to that. Oxford and Cambridge are some remaining internationally competitive assets they do drive huge economic growth and if you can get them to grow and connect them better, you know, that will the economy overall, but when she sort of committed first committed to this about eighteen months ago, there was a sudden cry from the north of well, hold on a second, what do we get out of this? leading to an entirely predictable panic when they tried to throw some money in infrastructure projects somewhere in Manchester and I think there is a sense, well, if we on the way out anyway we might just get on with the things we've always wanted to always wanted to do Miranda, are you confident that StAM is going to make any progress on the EU? It seems to be a long shot if you know Brussels will be looking at what comes next and whether his successor might be even more pray deeper cooperation. Absolutely. I mean, when you go to an international summit, your political health or otherwise back home is one of the key things that you're bringing into the negotiating room. So if everybody around the table knows you may not be there in a few weeks time You know, on what basis are you actually negotiating? I think that's genuinely difficult for them, I would really hope But, you know, inside the Burnham team that there are very active conversations about this because you know, if they really do think they're about to sort of challenge and take over in a few weeks time, this ought to be one of the things that grappling with I mean, I'm saying that with both hands, fingers cross behind my back because planning well for difficult moments doesn't seem to have been a feature of this government so far, right And I think on the whole question of legacy as Chris is quite rightly know, all prrime miniss when things start looking really rough become obsessed with their legacy because We're looking at the textbook of the future and thinking, what are my three paragraphs, right And the problem is you shouldn't start from here You know, this all dates back to the fact that They should have had a plan in coming, and then perhaps even if he did get in trouble A meir two years later, he would have a legacy and I think that example of starting only now to put spades in the ground on various infrastructure projects is a good example of that. I think the social media ban in a sense Hviated importantly, as Chris said by whether it actually works or not in terms of the policy objective of protecting young people from harm is a bit of a no brainer because it just seems so popular and it's the way the world is going. a sort of fight back against big tech who are quite useful bogeymen the moment. St the defefence investment planl, which has been on Starmer's desk for weeks, I think it was several months ago we were last discussing it on the podcast He's still not managed to get it over the line. There's now talk of compromise option between what the Treasury said was the absolute ceiling. of what they were willing to give and flor of what the MOD said was acceptable And therefore, if he does next week announce around fifteen billion extra for Britain's military over the next four years He's going to be roundly criticized for that falling far short of the twenty eight billion pound funding gap that exists for that time period I always feel slightly nervous when you ask me defense questions because it's a little bit being like being asked for like you know my thoughts about music by Mozart or whatever. I worry then I'm going to say something stupid and I'm just going to gauge it byia a pained expression on your face. I think the defense investment plan sums up perhaps better than anything else why the Stalmmer goovernment is ending in failure, right? whichich is that there is a clear policy need, which is we have to be able to get to a point where we can Defend ourselves and our allies from particularly in our neighbourhood a reseurarch in Russian threats Um That has a huge amount of cost because we have basically, we kept spending the peace dividend after the end of the Cold War long past the point that it became cleint, a new Cold War had started. Getting that money is going to involve asking, you, not the few, not the broadest shoulders All of us are going to have to chip in for that And this conular note Maybe if I just do nothing eventually something will happen to make the politics of this easier And this refusal, as I say, essenti Esentally again, you have a better sense of this than me than The treasury has wanted to we don't trust the MOD on procurement, we don't trust the MOD on spent getting value for money Therefore, we accept the defense need, but we want to have more control The MOD's been going, no, no, no, you can't possibly do this The Prime Mister has needed to make an adjudication and that has been the blockage for Moto Stal's preremiership Most of the blockage has been his unwillingness to argue that defense costs money and to pick between the MOD and the treasury. and him kind of yeah, finally going like, Oh I've decided I need a bit of a legacy and then for it to be below what essentially An expert who looks at it concludes is needed I think would unfortunately be the The ultimate legacy, actuallyually it does blow my mind that he's not more embarrassed by the fact That a central talking point for the f thing he's achieved is lifting children out of poverty. he didn't want to He's like, you yeah, that's Me Hillier's legacy. It's not your sl. But I mean, agree with Steh, is' like the fact that he spent so long trying to make a decision. It sounds like ulimly failing to make a decision and coming up a compromise that makes no one happy is quite emblematic. I mean, I don't know if you bore the job Prim Minister down to its simplest, it's knowing when to overrule the chanceller He's going to comen out supporty without even having made that decision. I think that's probably right. And to my mind part of the reason dug in and failed to make decision is he's just been indulging his anger that Healy last year came to him and said, lookook, we need an uplift in defense spending you agree it now, I won't come back with a begging bowl. He has come back Amittly, those around Healy say, look, the circumstances have changed and Kiss arma, you've gone and committed us to being leaders in this Ukraine reassurance force, if there's a peace deal, you've committed us to leading this international protection force in the Strait of Hormuz, if there's a peace deal then the Iran war with the U S. Therefore, you know calculations are chang and we need to fund our military to a much higher degree He sort of indulged his anger that the world is, you know not as John Healley promised him last year and failing to deal with it. But Do you also think there's a kind of really weird refusal across government to sort of join up the dots of some of these policy dilemmas You know, you've got Alan Milburn producing this huge impressive report about the NITS crisis, young people not in education, employment or training. and you've got the need to sort of re industrialize and you've got a need for more defence spending. I mean, you know, we know that the one thing if you put on a political leaflet that goes over really brilliantly is the word apprenticeship You know, there has to be some sort of convergence of these dilemmas is where I you know it start to become I indulge my thatcherite time there. but the problem though with that temptation is it's what leads you to things like the Ajac scheme because it's like, oh well, It might be a terrible vehicle, it might not be by British you knowob Unionized jobs in Mer of Tidville and' and look and unionized jobs are obviously important and you know, I'm not belittling the importance of secure work. can't be the way you make decisions about how you defend yourself. unfortunately, and also going to sell it ye It' a large of how you can sell it. and engineering skills are transferable. Yeah. Part of the problem has been, I think that this has been a government, I think' exactly right about him indulging his anger at John Heelwich which I think is There's also been anger that they got into office and the nineties economy just didn't just like return because l They'd earned it. and they essentially have just always wanted to be in that kind of two thousand two era new labor mode of Oh, the good news is guys is Financial services have lifted all of our fiscal worries through some fiscal drag and we can have a nice giveaway and we don't have to worry about what our political economy model is which goes back to their basic problem C dagnosed. The problem with Britain was that the Tories were useless and so come in and be grown ups it' all be fine which was obviously not true Can let' end on a final question, which Robert Srimsley has attacked in a brilliant column this week Not looking necessarily likely, but what about the scenario in which Andy Burnham loses the Makeerfield by election? In a sentence each? Do you think that will make it more likely that Kist Aarmmer can cling on, or do you think it's all over for him anyway? Chris? thinkings It wasone for longer, but labour possibly doomed Mada. So I think the stakes in the Makerfield Bio elections are so high that they are literally a kind of What is the use of today's Labour partarty? E Burnham loses in Makerfield I think it'll be you know the verdict on Starmer's Labour Party will be so disastrous that he'll be out the door. Either way Yeah the panic that it would unleash among labour MPs It's a brilliant column with this wonderfully sort of haaunting visual in this lovely classical illusion at the end, and listeners really should read it, but yeah, the party will panic like we haven't seen before and he'll be gone very quickly Iically Ruperow may save him We will see. Right, we've just got time for stock picks. Miranda, who are you buying or selling this week So I'm incredibly tempted this week to literally buy the Karen Dash a pencil sharpener Peter Murrell had on his list of domestic luxuries because it looks really, really nice and I've I'm so annoyed with breaking all my really great drawing pencils. So I'm now slightly obsessed and I've got about four tabs open at any one time looking for bargains on this one hundred ten pound Karenash pencil sharpener. but I know that's not in the spirit of political fix stock I am going to by with streeting becausecause although all the chat is about Andy Burnham and his inevitable march to Downing Street I went to one of these summer receptions this week in which is starting to happen in Westminster and You know, we're streetings very casually delivered addressed to the assembled Merrymakers was just so much better any of his competitors in the cabinet or outside it or leading any other political party, I do think that he has serious talent and so whatever the next chapter the Labour Party's story in power I don't think you should underestimate Streeting's determination to have a huge role in it Chris I am going to go very wonkish and I am going to by planning reform. I mean it was a Star has promised to restore growth through building, has failed to do so. There is a growing consensus across the Labour Party that this actually is something that both from the sort of Burnnamite camp and the sort more streetingite camp that actually we do need to go a lot further here because it is free. it probably does boost economy. Most economisties agree that because there's difficty in getting things built is one of the reasons why we have stagnated. So the sort of cautious incrementalism on that I feel may be about to go out of the window I am going to sell new Labour cabinet ministers Any particular so Well I'm cheating and doing some spreadbing in so the Yeah the Mandelson files have had their second release and almost all of the male new labor ministers have some kind of embarrassing exchange. The only one who hadn't has now had his embarrassing exchanges come out in the spectator, Darren Jones. sent very effusive message in support of Peter Mansson after he'd been sacked And it just increases all of their vulnerability. Obviously Andy Bham, whatever version Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister, he's going to have to have some true blue beliefves in new labour around his cabinet table. Who are you buying or selling m? Well, I'm actually going to buy Pat McFadden One of the key people, potentially rather embarrassed by the revelations in the second r Wh you're buying the week that his price is looking a bit lower? Yeah. He's good value. For a start, I enjoyed the candenness of his tone. And actually much of his analysis was belly spot on But in particular, and I've had a few people asking if we can lift the veil a little more on how we do journalism. Chris You and I thought after his most inflammatory message saying in most conversations with the Parliamentary Labour Party, they ask him, who can we tax to pay benefits to others? We'd sort of read that and thought, oh God, they're all going to kick off now. The rebels who already are resistant to reform of the welfare system are going to use this as a fig leaf a grievance narrative to reject. further reforms coming down the line And so we started calling some neighbour MPs to see if they did feel that. And we had to turn our hypothesis on its head, didn't we? did We spoke to several people who played key roles in last year's rebellion and they said, look, I mean everyone says dft things on WhatsApp. key is what he's doing. And yah he' doing a much better job at explaining the case for welfare reform predecessors and he's making an argument which labour MPs like about opportunity, not about cost sa things. And indeed, on the very night those messages came out, he met fifty labour MPs with Alan Milburn to talk about welfare reform. and you know this didn't really come up at all Well, that's all we've got time for. Stephven, Miranda, Chris. Thanks joining. Thanks. Thanks for you And that's it for this episode of the FT's Political Fix Before we go, we have a special episode of Political Fix coming up on Thursday, the twenty fifth of June, and you can join us online for that. We'll be discussing the ten year anniversary of Brexit and asking Can the UK deliver change Register to take part at ft dot com forward slash anniversary and send us your questions I've left a link in the show notes. Political Fix was presented by me, Lucy Fisher, and produced by Nisha Patel and Per' Love Manuela Sarraagosa is the executive producer Original Music and Sound Engineering by Breen Turner The broadcast engineers were Bian Wakman and Petrost Jum Passis. We'll meet again here next week