Challenges for Reform and Restore Britain

How does a banana trigger a CIA backed coup Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order What do LED lights say about the future of humanity I'mt Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Hello, good morning and welcome to this special edition of Politics at Salmon Ans. It's Friday, june the nineteenth And at six minutes past three this morning, Andy Burnham achieved a thumping great win in the Makerfield by election. Everyone knows The politics isn't working Everyone can feel country isn't where it should be Tonight Could, just could be the turning point He achieved nearly fifty five percent of the vote, almost doubling Labour's twenty twenty four majority at a time when the well behind reforming the polls. Andy Burnham's name on the ticket meant that the majority went up from five thousand four hundred to nine thousand two hundred votes Can he replicate that magic beyond M a feelield? The writing does look to be firmly on the wall Primeinister Kiirst Stama. I'm Anne McKlvoy from Politico. And I'm Sam Coates of Sky News Anddy Burnham didn't reference his quest for numberumber ten in his victory speech, but make no mistake. right now coup against Kir Starmer is underway. Andy Beram's team now believe that they have the evidence from that by election to back up their claim that the fifty six year old Li pudlian former mayor of Manchester can slay reform and save the Labour Party. Kirst Starmer disagrees, is digging in Really, really am is his army. We're going to take you through what happens next and when. It's been a tricky campaign for reform UK and a rookie candidate they lost Despite getting the second best ever by election result for Nigel Farage's party, increasing their share of the vote, voters in Makefield clearly decided it was a two horse race, didn't they? So we saw the greens, the liibdems, the parties on the left and even some Tories swinging behind Berham Yeah, it was really interesting. I was up all night for skky analyysing the results and I thought I saw kind of smart voting in this by election. Essentially that's tactical voting by people who've worked out who they're determined not to win. And in this case, what you saw was the sort of progressive wing working out how to stop reform UK. So if you look at the numbers in any depth, you know in twenty twenty four, the Tories Lib Dems and Greens got twenty two percent of the votes in the by election overnight That added up to three percent. right? Why does that matter because it shows that basically almost everybody picked one or other of the big parties, with a bit of an exception about Restore Britain, what we'll talk about in a little bit. The bottom line of that was like, for instance, the Tories lost their deposit in Makerfield, which is a sort of extraordinary outcome, given that in twenty nineteen they had Third of the vote in that constituency That is nevertheless, one of the things that's going on in our politics. So it's not quite the multi partarty landscape that we have been talking about. But here's another interesting thing because later in the podcast we'll talk about the fact that there were actually three by elections that happened overnight, the one in Makerfield, but also two in Scotland. And it wasn't a bad night overall for the tories because they actually won one The only by election where the result flip from one party to another was in Scotland in the Aberdeen South constituency, vacated by the SMP star Sthen Flynn, where the touries leapfrogged from third place to first place after a concerted campaign by Kemy Baednoock. So a shot in the arm for them. Again, just looking at this trend, there was a bit of smart voting there as well because the SMP vote in Aberdeen South didn't collapse You know, this was a tory victory at the expense of a Labour partarty Wh I think labour voters wanted to vote for the Union against the SMP as well as a sort of campaign on oil and gas. So I think the underlying trends tell us that the next election is really very competitive because voters look like they know what they're doing when they know who they don't want to be the winners in any given seat. Funny is now you end up with a multi partarty landscape in which the voters then boil it down in their own heads to a kind of often two horse race Or just decide, as you say, I like the idea of smart voting. So the SNP held on to the third and final by election of the night. that was Arborth and Brouton Ferry, part of Greater Dundee, where the SNP holding on with just under five thousand majority there. But maybe we should turn our attention back to Makeer Field, Sam. It was certainly very engaged electorate, fifty nine percent higher even than the last general election and a swing from reform to labour of three point four percent that's exactly the kind of result if your on team Burnham You have a proof of concept there, don't you that you can get into and nibble into that reform lead in places like Makerfield. There were some around Andy Burnham saying that that would translate into a one hundred thirty seat majority For labour, I don't know if you like me, you're going attach a health warning to that one I'm not sure I'd go immediately run to the bookies with that one, but whichever way you cut it, it is a triumph, isn't it? For Team Burnham, L Louise Hig, Anleies Mitchley. Now a question they strategize next, and here is a bit of what Louise Haake said earlier. As I say, it's very much in the hands of the Prime Minister of how he wants to play that. There will be no aggressive challenge. It's in everyone's interest that this is managed and orderly. and Andy won't be doing anything rash or hasty in the aftermath of tonight leving the count He announced he was going for a pint But we're expecting him to pop in public this morning to thank activists and indeed voters in front of the cameras. We know he won't be launching a challenge at this stage and won't be down in London before Monday when he is sworn in. But this is all a choreography, isn't it? I mean, right down to the pint and the time that you come down to London Lenon to the Finland station. What do you make of this choreography? Well, listen, I think that there is a veryery clear, very thought through strategy is going to play out in the next few days on behalf of Team Vernam. I'm not saying it'll work, but they have they have got a sense of what they want to do The goal of the Burnham campaign right now and you heard a bit of this from Louise Hag just now that in that clip is to try and engineer a bloodless, conflictless they want Kistama to go without a fight. sort of The quiet bit that they're not saying out loud is that they realize that As of now, they're not quite there So what they're trying to do is engineer a situation where Kir Starmer has to make all the difficult decisions himself. and essentially they want to engineer a situation where he realizes it's checkmate. And what that means in effect is they want him to start being the aggressor rather than Andy Burnham. Let me explain what I mean by that. And this is where the cabinet comes into play As it stands, Kistammer will face his cabinet on Tuesday morning We already know Kistarwa has told members of his government, he doesn't want people in his government. You don't back him as PM People in the cabinet are now expecting to get a call from the Prime Minister's team at some point between now and Tuesday, asking whether or not they're loyal to Burnham or whether or not they're loyal to Starmer And I think people that are loyal to Burnham will in private, not in public, but in private make clear that that is their position. I mean, frankly, people like Ed Milliband have already said so that they want Kiss Strm to stand down yourour Ed Millibands, your Shabanam Mahuds, and your Lisa Nandies, they won't resign or sort of come out and make a pop this weekend or say anything critical publicly. but they will tell number ten, if asked privately, they want a replacement prrime Minister and a timetable from Kir Stara thenen it's down to Kir Starmer to decide does he sack them on the basis of that disloyalty or not And so here's the thing, Anne Can Ellb Miliband really be sacked by Kirst Aarma? Does he have the strength to do that? Can Kir Aarmmer A Lisanandi, Shabad Mahmou? Can he have three or more gaps in his cabinet and then credibly say he wants to launch a leadership contest where one hundred plus MPs are already saying he can't take the party into the next election? You know you know Kirst saying I mean it for the long haul Yeah that just feels to me like a very difficult backdrop, but that's sort of where he's being there's a sort of pins movement to try and get him into that position And you know, maybe Kistoma just doesn't make the calls, doesn't ask the question, tries to hang on that way at that point. I think the sort of frustration bubbles over. I think this idea that There's a bit of a loyalty test needed for the government to function. the cabinet to function is the thing that causes action next week. we might acquite a weekend, a promise of a conversation between Dy Berdon and Kir Starmer next week U but the wider Beram C making clear Keerstarmer wants to leave the job with dignity and you know, some sense of a legacy intact. then he has the ability to do that because if they don't, they've got the UGv Labor meembers poll showing that Kiir Stama loses to Andy Burnham fifty nine percent to thirty seven percent So that that I think is the plan. The big, big call by Kara's opponents is that Kirst Stara isn't as stubborn as he's sounding this morning. What do you make of that? What do you make of the landscape? He was out and about last night actually in London with his wife with fixed armour And yeah, still looking very calm, very sort of kear when you know very together, not giving any sign at all. There's anything else going on here. And that seems to me sound to be always the way that when he's under challenge, he has this kind of carapace, this al a bureaucratic way of you say, I'm prrime Mister. I mean I'm prrimeinister until something you know, if want if you want the weapons, you know Come and get me, I'm not going to make any concession. I was just very struck by that that he makes no concession to this situation. So as you put it, you know, will that continue to be the case Or now as these calls come in and conversations are hard and people speak with him privately over the weekend, will he acknowledge that that really is a front of house story and has to shift at some point You know it would be interesting when he does the likely pool interview this morning or is something similar? what will his tone be? Is he going to go to that message that he did a bit earlier in the week? which is that I'm a G seven, I'm going to fight on orr you, does he really just treat this by election as if it were a by election because at this point, you know It's in plainsight that Ben is going to be heading to London. And it's how do you think He, as well as Burnham then get through this awkward interaction until the facts are out there. Yeah. I think there's another factor in play, which is quite how the mass ranks of the four hundred two one if you've exclude kiss armor. Labor MPs now react. I think there's a hope amongst some around Burnham that they'll start to make a move It's, you know, there are ninety, if I check my notes, ninety four of them have come out against Kistamma say can't fight the next election want him to stand down you know, cure the culture the party, which is a lot, but are there another fifty or hundred who either do it publicly or sort of do it quietly through the parliamentary committee. You can send a message to number ten with without going public quuite instructive. There was one Anti Starmer Labour MP who messaged me over the last couple of days who said and I think this is the tone I think that a lot of people want now I suspect that there might be genuinely be a pause over the weekend to give the PM time to consider his position Nobody wants this to be unnecessarily messy. And I think that the mood quite well, which is for those that love twenty four hour news, like me, necessarily and kinetic action, actually you might be just drawing a breath over the weekend. And also thinking about this is really a regicide and Labour is very uncomfortable with that historically always made a bit bit of a habit of it. offtten does leave a lot of trauma. in a party and I think it's dawning on some people I spoke to close to Andy Berham. there was a bit of a rush and a push in the Land is ourours sort of feeling a few weeks ago. And then I think you suly think on what terms you get in, And does it just let you dragged out prrime Mister elected with big majority Can you in some way nuance that? And we' see a lot of Vick Starmer, I think there's a point in which the family come into this as well because it's a question of dignity and G seven. last night looking I have to say fabulous. And she really I think the plan for this year was we were going to see more of Lady Starmer. Of course the way things have worked out, it's not been that kind of thing where we' focusing on the Prime Minister's wife. Sight sense of body armor, I think, you know, And she's alongside like people then also have to engage with both of them, but she's obviously there, you know She's in the trenches with him Now you know, you say could be the family saying get on with the rest of our lives. it's going to a nice summer and spend more time with the kids, which I think he genuinely would appreciate. But right now to say, if he's fighting, She is there, you know, she is in that Praetorian gods with him in a nice designer frock respect. She's really, you know making clear if you're not like, you know, I' just consider at home and wait to see what happens. It's interesting just a playbook this morning, we're just talking about What happens to those in cabinet and what happens to people who it would make a big difference, wouldn't it whatever Ed Miliban does would make a big difference, Shabana Mahamud, et ccera. So my colleague, San Francis on playlaybook picking up the same kind of chatter that we were talking about. Yes, there is a resignation watch, but there's also Now talk of a kind of seventy two hour. Gace period. So spokespersons for both Miliband and Mahmoud saying no plans to quit. Well, I think that's very carefully phrased. I mean, you know, do you have plans for what you're going to do in seventy two hours' time? I'm going to be sleeping Yeah, it sounds like we're all aligned. it's this business of wanting herear Starmer effectively to be the aggressor. The Burnham team don't want to be seen and his allies to be seen making the first move. Right. We're going to hop a sort of make a sort of principled hop into the future and just turn to the question of what Andy Burnham could be if he is to be our next prrime Minister, which now looks very likely. And for weeks, he's been saying, you know, in essence, that his manifesto for the country is what he's done in Manchester. He's been the Manchester Metro Mayor for nine years. That means he's sort of the kingpin of the ten councils that cover that area, which stretches from Wigan through Manchester City u and Gorton and Denton, all of, you know, all of those areas are um, u were his domain and he's saying that's my that's that's my calling card. Look at that, look at how well it's done And that's why I should be in number ten. Right. Now forgive me, Anne, I'm just going to do a little bit of a plug, which hope to I hope to entice members of our podcast community to watch a film that I've been doing over the last month or so with producer Joe Cook because we've been spending quite a bit of time in Gacer Manchester to work out Whether Manter, Gor Manchester Metro arerea is as good as Andy Burnham says, whether he gets the credit and generally finding out what people know on the street and some of those closest to him really think. I've been talking to Richard Leeiz, who was counciller for twenty five years. I've been talking to Jim O'Neill, who actually it turns out is an economic advisor. They've just confirmed that overnight an economic advisor to to Andy Burnham. I've got a little bit of him in the in in the film as well I'm just going to play you because we talked to Jim O'Neill a couple of weeks ag now for the film that's coming out at five o'clock today on Sky and on YouTube. And at that point, Jim O'Neill had a bit of a warning for Andy Burnham. What he really needs to develop is the right people around him to develop the detail and the path to more successful ambition and fiscal credibility to get there I hear you say that, and I also hear Boris Johnson, you know, somebody built a team but that didn't end so well Boris didn't build the right team around him and he was more interested in the image of the game than the actual game. So is that the warning for Andy Berham? It is very definitely the warning for Andy. So ye, if he is advising Andy Burnham, that warning about not to be too much like Boris Johnson, I think will be ringing in his ears. five o'clock today on YouTube on Sky News do watch his eighteen minutes. so fans of Th things under twenty minutes will hopefully enjoy it. So please do watch that. It'll be in my social media feed all over the channel and all over YouTube. So interesting to hear from Jim O'Neill there, former Goldman's chief economist ery loyal to labour, came in with Gordon Brown to help out there when Gordon Brown was in government. so he has a long history and a lot of respect in the financial community. That sounds to me a bit like also Andy Bernam wanted to get rid of that reputation as the guy said, the unfortunate thing about, you know why do we have to be ad hog to the bond markets world determines your borrowing and you know you can be critical of the structure of the bond markets, but the idea that you could just come in and in some way tear it up was for the birds. So I think we're seeing a lot of appointments that sort of move Andy Burnham away from that. Why don't we just, you know, which labour can be bit to about things like the bond markets. or Can't we just imagine another international finance system entirely? Well you know they're in for the one they've got. So they've also got Richard Hughes from the OBR advising he came a croppper over that OBR leak. But I't think theres any other reason why one wouldn't want Richard Eues is an OBR specialist around playlaybook also reporting that Grace Pritchard, who was in the room actually for the Burnham election victory. She's been on Ed Milliband's team very prominent is she is set to become Andy Burnham's head of Cs I say I didn't see That one coming, but I wonder about signals in terms of a closeness between the Ed Millipand team and the Burnham kind of future compact that you were asking us to look into I was hearing about other SPADs, other special advisors who were working for the Burnham campaign sort of in secret without resigning their job, cut and pasting some Labour Party's stuff into yeah into Google Dops. So the Burnham campaign struck me as being very, very well informed. We've hit twenty minutes. There's one more thing I want to say which is just I think the battle for the right has got a bit tougher with Reform UK, which went into this by election saying we think we can win, come out saying we' always the underdog. They now have this challenge from restore Britain, the Ruper at Low Party But I just want to say one thing about that result fourour days we heard from Ristal Britain suggesting there was going to be some kind of surge, some kind of big result. Social media, I think, took us in lots of misleading directions. On Ugv's poll at the moment nationally, restestore Britain are on five percent. They got six point eight percent. This was no triumph. They had a massive campaign in Mgerfield and it didn't cut through. They didn't see a big vote But nevertheless, I think there will be questions for reform which haven't looked necessarily that shull footed recently about theyore how they respond and whether or not that edging to the right, which I felt that reform was doing through the campaign, Nigel Farage, talking about a country biased against white people and seizing on the various tragedies that we've seen recently whether or not that is a technique that's going to play particularly well for them in the coming weeks and months. I mean you can c it both ways can't you? I' just have a quick look at the figures why you' chsing that. I mean, if you put reform and restore together, you get to about nineteen thousand in labour just nudging up towards twenty five. thousand So it's a gap, but you know, restore I take your point. I don't think it was a I think it was sort of slightly you It was overestimated the impact of restore But if it's not going away, somet Youve got other seats where you just tweak those figures a little bit, don't you? And you would see that restore would be able to rob reform in places that they feel that they need to be winning. So I think this has been a bit of an awakening for them. I don't think the campaign felt that it ever really took off tell because Nil F, alough he wanted to be involved. He was not I am spending every waking moment that I can.