The Southampton Tragedy and Political Response

How does a banana trigger a CIA backed coup Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order What do LED lights say about the future of humanity I'mt Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Hello, good morning. It's Thursday, june fourth. Welcome to Politics at Salmon Ans Start with a mystery This morning we read that on the day of Peter Mandelson's sacking, the Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones, sent him a message saying he was sorry And what a great job he'd done as ambassador. But why has that surfaced now And might the Dark Lord himself have anything to do with it? My name is Anne McKlvoy from Politico. And I'm Sam Coate of Sky News. Oo, well, let's look at the evidence because this missive was revealed by the spectator's Tim Shipman wasn't in Monday's Madelson Files document dump. Darren Jones told the Cons his messages were no longer available and it's not in his interest to see something as embarrassing as that surface again. and Peter Mandelson didn't, as it said in the documents, hand over his phone to the government could the pair be doing a little bit of political spinning from beyond the political grave, who could possibly say it is, as you mentioned, an mystery It's Thursday the last day of the Parliamentary weeek and a story from outside Westminster has been driving a hard political conversation That is the dreadful tale of the stubbing of Henry Novak a student in Southampton last December his subsequent treatment by police and his death and the police bodycam footage which showed the eighteen year old being handcuffed by officers after he'd been stabbed because the perpetrator had falsely accused him of racism. Well that has led this week to protests and to street clashes and an ongoing divide about what the story really tells us that in a moment. Yeah. And To be honest, attention in Westinster ntly pretty much every conversation I'm having at the moment is going on also about stuff that's happening outside Westminster, in particular What on earth is going on in Makerfield at the by election and in terms of succession planning. What is Andy Burnham doing and preparing? So a change of Prime Minister could be anything from three weeks to three months away, three months if it's a contest but three weeks if it's a well, I've been calling it a coronation, An, but one of our listeners, Robert, actually got in touch to say, we should be calling it a conclave as a better word because it's a behind closed doors decision by a selectorate who don't want a broader democratic input into the decision and don't want their dirty laundry and arguments happening in public. And I have to say, I rather thought Robert has a point. Anyway, I'm going to go to Manchester early next week myself to take the temperature from much closer to the action It seems that everything is happening up there. But there's an awful lot of just worrying in sort corridors in Westminster about who's there, who's in, who's out, and what's being planned. And the question beginning to loom intoiew as we head to a possible labour papal conclave is what a Burnham led future might look like in the detail because So far, it's been a one man show inevitably because his route is via by election and he has to be the figure there in the limelight and particularly to show that he has the local chops for the job But in plain sight someam is f that this is a preparatory step to national power. One of the accusations that has been persistent against Team Kere is that they came into office unprepared. Well, that's a question now being fired at the Burnham Brigade. If you're serious about power, what are you doing to prepare for it? Yeah, in my chats with people there's a bit of worry about that if I'm being honest. I talked to one person who was quite intimately involved with a couple of decisions around an involving Andy Burdam, I don't know about ten days ago, two weeks ago And one observation they made was that there are too many cooks to get something done. There's sort of six seven people you need to get through. But the candidate himself, Andy Burnham just does do what he says he's doing. he's out knocking doors all day long as his social media presence suggests. And so there isn't a huge amount of time in order to sort of pin him down on some of the biggest issues and this command structure on the ground up there. when it comes to planning for government as well as and a leadership campaign, well as the by election is just a little bit unclear. One person who has also had contact with Team Burnham said as an aside, Andy's just given too many jobs to too many people. Now I'm sure T team Andy would deny that, but that's the perception down here. And that's jobs in the sense of maybe future cabinet posts, although I'm sure again, he would say, nothing's been handed out, but people are starting to come away with impressions U and there does seem to be indirect reporting lines on on the team up there There are MPs involved in the campaign. They're bringing in their staff or sort of allies of them to try and sort stuff out. There seem to be allies of Sue Grey now on the ground in Makerfield as well And I'm told that the Baroness is involved in some of the planning and making actually making calls in the last few days to people in Westminster and Whitehall about what should happen next. And there were stories at the weekend about her involvement. My understanding is that that's true and that's active even though sources say that you donre't have a formal role with the Burnham government if that happens U so Given that it's all moving quite fast, there's only a month between the by election date and recess in mid July. Um and if if it doesn't happen in that period, everything pauses until the autumn You're right. the question is is there enough of a plan? It sounds like one of those very ad hoc transition teams that they have in the US which of scores of people and masses of documents. But this is in a very British way. this looks like it's having to be cobbled together. And if he does win the by election, Andy Burnham a huge task, doesn't he? he has to present a plan to the country and to the party that can justify him taking over in these slightly bizarre circumstances as Pimeister. Now right now, all of that comes with such a lot of political and policy constraints because in essence, we are still in the Kia era. so those manifesto pledges and also promises and exclusions that the Starmer administration have made still Stand But there's going to be a change and everybody knows there's going to be a change. The difficulty is how to work out what should happen by what point or what some might just look too presumptuous and I think that's another reason why maybe you're getting these because of shadow teams working away, but They can't really align, can they? because otherwise it would look like they were in the middle of a massive ot even before he's in Parliament. Yeah. But there has to be work. and I was talking to one Andy B at Burnham sort of helper. and I was asking, what on earth can you do that's big and bold enough that nevertheless doesn't trip over the redlines and constraints that you've imposed on yourself already just in the last couple of weeks? And they said actually there's more than you might realize that you can do. They said even if you carry over Rachel Reeeve's exact fiscal rules, which Team Burnham have suggested that they will, although markets want a bit more clarity on that, they said that even if you do that, there's more scope for targeted borrowing than she's exercising at the moment And there's a particular plan that they flated on maybe a big publicly funded social housing program. So what you can do under the redrawn debt rules, rememember, as you changed them in twenty twenty four to what's known as Pnuffle, a sort of technical way of measuring debt against the fiscal rules, is you could do a big public building program funded by Borring, provided that the government then takes a stake in the project and then that means it doesn't sort of sit in the balance sheet of the government in quite the same way and would no longer count against the fiscal rules So a big government funded housing program is possible, they believe. And that would be very much in line with the Berham rhetoric on the doorstep right now. The treasury, under the current administration, has resisted something like that. I think even though the Communities department under Angela Rayna certainly wanted it, but could this clear the way? It would mean more borrowing, but it would be within the rules. Is that the kind of big thing that Andy Berham could come out of the trps and promise in the event that when we finally get to questions around how he would be Prime Minister. That's intriguing and that would be bold. Certainly, one thing that's implicit in that, which perhaps peopleeople don't talk about enough when we talk about the possible replacing of Kia Starma. I suspect that would mean also a new Chancellor because Rachel Reeves hasn't done that. She's opted or she and Staharma opted not do that kind of thing. So I think you would have to say it would probably be a new start also in number eleven as well, which throws the obvious question of who it would be. It is complicated because what you're describing there is and I hadn't actually heard that idea before, and I think it's once a bookmark, but it means that you've got to have a kind of shadowed treasury sort of role going on at the moment or thinking going on. and you can't afford to miscalculate because starting off a new burn and push for power with some problem on the side of the the figures would be difficult. So as you're suggesting, Sam, it needs to be something that wouldn't clash with the existing fiscal rules. interesting when he shows up tonight on question time for Maker Field on the BBC, how much of a sense of national promise does Burnham give as well as touting by election credentials because it is, you know make a field it is really makeaker or breaker field isn't it for The Burnham offensive. I think we have to credit Laura Kounsberg with making a r break. I had no idea in my defense Okay I really didn't overr damn That was me thinking I had my early morning. Okay Laura and Anne. Hi Laura. Well done. But Listen, you raised the question of shadow sort of shadowing Chancellor and the treasury stauff When Andy Burnham clarified his position on fiscal rules, I'm told that Ed Milliband was involved in that decision And I think that led to a lot of speculation that could E Milliband end up as being Chancellor. but even now I'm hearing maybe, but at the same time, there's a recognition that you might need to get a chancellor from the other sort of bit of the labour And the other wing of Labour effectively. you can't have two people the on the soft left at the top of the party just to balance the ticket out U so that takes us down to the kind of You would talk about streeting, I was talking about Chapan and Mahamud. we honestly don't know, but I get that sense from people who are involved that There is a sort of balancing ticket. Listen, I've picked up another problem bluntly with all of this shadow policy making. which is and this comes from somebody who's following it all very closely Andy Burnham's team are having by necessity to work in the dark spepecifically without any help from the Civil serervice, right Tw most comparable recent times where a Prime Minister was on their way out So Thesa Maye in twenty nineteen, Boris Johnson, twenty twenty two. PM resigned, right And when the PM resigns ahead of leadership contest, that triggers the ability for access talks to take place. So the Cabinet seecretary in this case, Antony Romeo, previously Simon Kays, was like allowed candidates to come in and check their numbers, their costings, do a reality check on any ideas that know were being run before the selectorate at that point But because Kistar has not acknowledged he's going anywhere All of the teams around Burnham are having to draw up policies in the dark without anyy help from civil servants who can quietly go. Well of course that won't work I'm meananing that if there's a coronation, sorry, conclave, an immediate transition, you know, his team will unfairly be more on the on the back foot than comparable recent episodes. Yeah, I guess, but, you know, he did choose to challenge the Prime Mister standing ab by election to force his way back to Parliament. So it's not going to be an orthodox power is it? I think what you're right to point out is it comes with huge opportunity for Andy Bernner, but a lot of pitfalls as well that he has to step around in order to look like he's prepared but he has the constraints that you have wrinkled out there Let's talk about that other big story that is roiling Westminster and that is the impact of the murder of Henry Novak Now, that has moved from anger about the circumstances of this young man's death just before Christmas to an apology already by Hampshire police for the fact that he was handcuffed on the ground after he had been assaulted and fatally, as it turned out And that's moved then to accusations essentially that the police believed the man who stabbed him, his murderer on grounds of racism because the man was alleging that the argument, the quarrel that the two had had on that night out had then turned into racism was then proved not to have been the case. Well, it was a quieter night last night after clashes the night before by protess and some attacks on the police trying to control that in Southampton. But the story' now moved pretty fast, hasn't it? to a question of whether officers felt that they were controlled or pressured by diversity initiatives, which had emphasized the need to be more alert to racism. the former home Secretary, Jack Straw Wayne in there on that saying that he thought this had gone too far. This will be, I think a big story tonight when we see what the candidates, alost the main candidates in Makeerfield are going to say about that case on question time There's a lot of pressure there on. alsoso Nigel Farage really going with his story at Westminster. He too, however getting pressure from his right flank from restore on this as well. It's very fissile political material, isn't it? It really is. So what is the broad political response, theature of the kind of the nature of the response? Well we had a sense of that yesterday and we'll see that again this evening And really it breaks down into two categories, I thought There's Nigel Farage. the rest. That's certainly what we saw at PMQs yesterday So Nigel Farage wanted to has talked about his cold rage and he has been laying out why what we've seen is evidence of two t policing. Other party leaders Well they were very consciously seeking to dial down the rhetoric. So interestingly, this included Kemy Bakenock, whose tone was much closer in the Cons chamber to Kist Arma than to Nigel Farraage. Even though the Tories have unearthed guidance on race and been talking about all lives mattering and 're not shying away from it, but Kemmy Baidnaut was very clear that she wanted to emphasise responsibility and bringing people together and didn't make this the main subject of PMQs yesterday. And so I felt that that was the first time I felt that the sort of cooalitions around a subject were not right and left. everyone versus Farraage in the commommons Chamber and you heard the kind ofar barracking of him. Now I wonder whether he thinks that works in his advantage. I think others felt that this was an emotive issue and he was Dishonoring the families by talking in the manner that he did We will we will see more on that this evening on question time, terms and conditions. Andy Bernner will be onQuestion time as a Makeerfield candidate. The names of all the other candidates in the Make and field by election are in the show notes of this podcast What will Andy Burnham say? Well, weve got a bit of a clue. He has done a social media post on this saying that hed talked to the Chief Cstable of Greater Manchester Police and would lay out a full response today And in a couple of short paragraphs, he sort of sounded like he was echoing the starmer response that the family's wish was not to turn this into political football and not to be respected with all of the implicit rebuke of Nigel Farage and reform that comes with that. But more broadly, you know, there is that sense that I think you believe that you know, Kir Aara maybe didn't find the right gears after the Southport incident. I think MPs, labor MPs are lining up behind Andy Berham precisely because he's good at seizing moments like this. This is the sweet spot that he is presumed to be able to hit. He managed it after the Manchester bombing arena bombing. He managed it during COVID. That's when he became King of the North. He has an instinctive ability and is meant to have a really good way with words. and we have seen that in the past. It's just a summons the lifelong Catholic in him. There's something of the sort of red blooded preacher about about his style and he can sort of turn it on from from seemingly from nowhere. So I am really interested to see whether he rises to the moment and then I don't know how it's going to play in the by election, but that's why I think today matters in that context. Yeah, it's a really good point, isn't it? Can you find an emotional register when there is this sort of tragedy and it really of wakes up the nation and very easily these days then can turned very quickly into bitness and divisions. Can you find an emotional response to that, which I think here Starm would be fair to say has struggled with both after South Port in twenty twenty four and occasionally at other times without then going into the territory where you make matters worse and people just feel more stirred up and divided than united is quite a challenge. but Andy Burnham does have something of that in his skill set. So what do we get? Do we get a red blooded preacher which is from the evangelical traditions some case. O do we get do we get something sort of more reflective from Andy Burnham? But it has to carry, hasn't it? People have to listen to it and think, yeah He has captured something that I feel. That goes to the heart of whether or not Labor can take on reform nationally, whether or not the Berham project works. There's two different styles of trying to appeal to the public and it's about who taps into emotion better Andy Burnham or Nigel Farage. You're talking about emotional responses and just how evocative people can be. I've got a little one for you on a different subject. Yesterday we talked about Palantir And we wereight I was highlighting that on social media on X. And Piers Corbyn, Jeremy Corbyin's brother jumped in with a video to reply to my to my palantir tweet and he's done a song poem about why Palantir shouldn't really be allowed in the to be used by the British government. It's quite the most surreal thing I've seen in a while. But if you have a song video that you want to send us in response to one of our points, feel free. If evangelizing is the name of the game today, then we need to evangelize about our twenty minute limit, which is up