Polling Data and Leadership Contenders

How does a banana trigger a CIA backed coup Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order What do LED lights say about the future of humanity I'mt Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Hello, good morning and welcome. It's the official endorsement any Labour politician would kill for. In last night's by election campaign video released by Andy Burnham, his four minute pitch for Makerfield also to the country. He walks around central Manchester are the sound of Oasis's nineteen ninety five hit. Some might say The Manchester Eing News confirmed last sight that the Oasis brothers had given permission for the track to be used My name is Anne McKlvoy from Politico. And I'm Sam Coates of Sky News. There's a hit, frankly for Aist for every labour figure. Definitely maybe for West streeting, particularly after last week. We'll come ono some polling that suggests It was definitely maybe not. Cigarette and alcohol for Angela Rayna. She continued to lead into it. so pretty unashamed there. And will Kir Stama be humming standing on the shoulder of giants, maybe after june the eighteenth, who knows, Collectively, perhaps the Labour Party could do with a spell of listening to the master plan. Oh, enough already. But before we roll with it, I had to do one last one. Delighted to be in Great Company. Turns out we've been nominated for Best Political podcast in the Society of Editors Awards. And we're alongside the greats, including our friends over at Electoral Dysfunction, the News agents, Rested pololitics, and the New Statesman Daily Politics among others judges not, no one starts as early as Salmon me The awards launch turns out to be on by election day, Sam. didid you o clock that june eighteenth? That is going to be really good for anyone doing an overnight program that day. Oh caky yeah, that's bad news. Anyway, thank you for the nomination. In case you missed it, the Oasis gags are a reference to the video that's now got just short of a million views on. The X platform alone released by Andy Berham presumably done by his campaign team yesterday evening. Interesting, I was watching Andy Burnham on X yesterday. He replies to an awful lot of people who send them a message, journalists just others he's very active on the platform. So it's not just his campaign team who use that. And I thought it was a good place to start this morning and play you a little short extract. because One of the striking things about that video is that even though his path to Westminster is to fight a by election and then we'll see where we get to and you know, we're expecting a challenge for number ten, he is campaigning for the country from day one. and that video is just litted with the wes of thatchurism and neoliberalism. So I just thought you could listen to this bit, Anne. and I wanted to know what you made of his sort of Manchesterism Credo. I knew my heart politics in this country had to change. And that's what I came back here to do. Working side by side with business, we built the country's fastest growing economy. You do the fast job. Manchesterism is the end of neoliberalism. And there's a lot of Manchesterism in it. It's generally a very good production. It reminded me the school of communication of John Major's return to Brixton back in the day where you use that local background and you're a local lad and you can tell your story to reflect what's going to be your national veryy on the nose about that is in the North, lots of local appeal, lots of message of change details TBD. To my mind, it was really a contrast drawing exercise along the lines of, hey, you could have me, clearly an easy communicator who can post back to you O X about an in joke or a criticism and take it takeake it on in good spirit contontrasting that with just altogether stiffer style of Kist Damma, the Prime Minister in his communications. Interesting I thought to see that the Ties already leaning into the odds on Andy Burnham. So Mel Stride, the shhadow chance there is out and about today talking about a burnham penalty on borrowing costs in quite some detail. You know he says that there are market fears of Andy Burnham's borrow more spend more agenda, et ceter. and says that could be a penalty that the UK has already maxed out on high borrowing. Well, I mean We don't really know in fairness exactly what Andy Beren will be proposing in terms of economic policy and how he sees UK borrowing. but it's just interesting to see even the opposition It seem to be well, as we said, kind of rolling with it on the Burnam machine. And as much as I might not like it, a campaign that's based on vibes rather than, you know hard facts seems to be the way to go these days. It's a vibes heavy video. When it comes to the facts, actually interesting to watch Andy Berdham doing quite a lot of sort of tidying up yesterday and that's putting polite, I'm sure. opposition figures would use more s abrasive language, but on positions. So he's already over the last this exs, tidied up his position on Europe and make clear he's absolutely not going back to unpicking the fact that we're out of Europe but also on the fiscal rules, where he absolutely committed to Rachel Reeves fiscal rules to Bloomberg, basically, saying a prayer to the markets and sort of saying in perpetuity, I will stand by those as well And hoping I think that he doesn't draw too much flat for that way of doing things and emphasizing the Oasis backdrop, the elbow music in the background as he walks down the other bits of Manchester and generally tries to rely on his personal appeal to get him through. and of course the contrast with Kir Stara. because you know, if you look at today I have to say, Anne, I sort of my stomach knots when I think about just how awkward and stiff. It's going to be at nine thirty this morning when the cabinet meet We are told that theme of this morning's cabinet meeting is delivery and you kind of want to go, Oh God, I mean that's virtually ironic after last week's revolal, which P was a week ago today, which took establed P premership to the brink You know, it looks set to basically install aniburnam in Parliament and maybe downing Street. All of these figures have to look each other in the eye and I'm still quite sure how they're going do it. I think there's maybe one difference with last week and it's this that when they were having those two curling appalling kind meetings, last week, it did look like the cabinet was unsure outside a few hyper loyalist redoubts, whether Kir Stama could ride out a few days without being forced out Samon. And now the message is very clear, even uncompromising from the Prime Minister. He's not budging. There's not yet a contest. I mean this is obvious he's not saying this but people are on his behalf and clearly with his authority and there won't be unless and until Andy Burnham wins in Makerfield, which, you know for all the confidence of that video and the self confidence that we've described at the top of the podcast is still As we said, yesterday, the odds are still very shaky on that. So I think we might end up with briefings out of this today saying the Prime Minister was chin jutting, he was determined to focus on that delivery line. Darren Jones's announcement of having focused delivery units for each ministerial departments to focus on outcomes not just input. So it's all code, isn't it for him sticking around? or at least that is the number ten version. But how are you reading the psychology, the human side of this? Well, I'm just dying to say and that that is classic Mckelvoy glass half full ism but I am wondering whether the liquid in the glass is headlocked That's what I'm saying. I'm just being acced just accused of being a positive and upbeat person by my co host for the record. Y, it's not what we do this time Let me tell you why, right I'm tell the prrime Minister really does, let feel personally let down by figures like Edmin L Band. you know, there was a sense last week that You know, the energy sector was actively pestering the PM to go. you know, Edm virtually they got help get K Amer into Downing Street, certainly into Parliament You know, but there are figures like Shibana Mahmouud, who was, as we said last week, you know, amongst the most pretty much the most two footed person Telling him that we had to set out a timetable. It's more than polite smiles, Anne. I think there's something verging on a constitutional problem here. Takeakes Sham on the meat absolutely clear last week she wants him to work out how he's going to go and therefore Shabal Mamouid, one of the holders of the great offices of state doesn't think the Prime Minister has the authority to continue in the medium to long term O earth can she just sit round that table and rely on the very authority that she doesn't believe is there. in order to do her job, in order to get through the massively controversial For instance, migration Agenda And it seems to be very simple. If a prime minister doesn't have confidence in a cabinet minister, they go instantly, done, right? But if a cabinet minister has open you said, I don't have confidence in the PM. well I know it's a sort of fairly unprecedented situation. but you know, how can this situation be allowed to sort of fester? Not least when there are all of these plans coming down the track to change migration that MPs don't want MPs are sort in the driving seat, you know, how does that work? It's really a frozen conflict, isn't it? And you're right, there's a terrible awkwardness about all of this. I still think if you are Shibana Mahmud or Ed Miliban from different positions in Cabinet, but you've basically been reliably reported to have doubts about whether Kestama can make it through to the next election and effectively that you think he should be setting a timetable or preparing in some way to depart I think you just get on with living your best life and pushing through what you think is important in some cases, perhaps also important for your own message or positioning that probably works a bit to Ed Milliband's advantage. He's still in the kind of air and spare category of someone who could step up or indeed step up to a higher position if there were a change at the top of your Shabana Mud, two footed is your good phrase for Shabana. But you know your things that you really believe in on this immigration and asylum reform, well you just don't budge you say, I'm not changing my position either. And you know that there's going to be another round of this, so either the prrime Minister gets tough and sexy, but that feels very unlikely in this situation. So in some ways, something I've just observed in the military spere of frozen conflicts often they serve quite a lot of the interests of people who might otherwise be involved in major clashes and potential defeats. That's true. You mentioned Edmundiband as the spare to the heir of the soft left. I just in the moment I'll come onto some polling, but I just checked it and Edminiband is the first choice of Three percent of labour members. So he's pretty far down the list as it happens I mean, you're right, we're in just really complicated terrain, probably you know, first half of twenty nineteen Tereresa May style kind of terrain, if I'm being if I'm being honest If you remember she had that devastating set of local elections where the Brexit Party did very well. and her authorities was basically shot after that and she announced her departure just before the summer. like that it's not unprecedented constitutionally, but Don't expect governing to get done. Don't expect difficult votes to fly through the commons. Yes, there is a bit of stuff coming out of the treasury, but beyond that, not a great deal. My sense is And I put this gently, they know they're not naive in Downing Street. They know it's close to all being done. You know, they're waiting for the G eighteen by election. and then we'll see where we are. But until then there's a space for as one person put it for the PM to make arguments, which is a bit a little bit like not using the word legacy casting, but it's sort of legacy shaping I'm But you need to you do like but what I'm sort of blowing apart, but, you know, Cabinet ministers are sllyightly back. There is a need to install a little bit of fake discipline first just to get through this next period, which does feel like what a couple of Cabinet ministers are trying to do today. And ground wars of course kicking off elsewhere between rivals for the crown, where streeting is going to make more interventions on the economy. It looks clear from briefings there that he's going to go further with an implicit a critique of the cautious Rachel Reeves approach. Politicos Bethany Dawson has a good scoop that. another PPS distuting has resigned Steve Race. He quit the Exeter and is out of the PPS WhatsApp group as of Monday evening. So that means all three of the AidS distuting have now resigned and the new Health Secretary, James Murray still deemed something of a surprising choice for that level of promotion. He has to get a fresh flock of Aids as well So there are promotions involved in all of this. So quite how long have they? They don't come with zero hours contracts, but they look a bit like they can be somewhat temporary. Okay, so how and do you put it all back in the box? Well, it began with Aette Cooper last night, notot totally untainted. She was one of the people that saw M last Monday, but she was lecturing I think lecturing is the right word, issuing a stern warning to labour MPs over the briefing walls, saying, yes, it's all fine to have a serious debate , but And here's the quote, When it's being reported, the things that labour people are saying about each other are unprintable. I would just say frankly, I don't care who you are in our party. What you think the answer for our future is we need to treat each other with respect So there's that Today there's another cabinet minister. big one out and about sort of with their own variation of the same message. The politics of it is pretty stark. It's John Heley and he is going to deliver a sort of lecture himself to Labour MPs about how they're behaving saying right now the credibility of labour in government is at stake, but the meat of the speech is on his home turf of defence. Yes, this is the culmination of an attempt that's been away for months between John Heeeley and the MOD and number ten and essentially it's about linking up procurement that needs to happen and to grow fast and the upcoming defefense investment plan to push more money into defense spendings. And with jobs and job creation in the UK And the aim here today is just a very clear one that we haven't really heard in defense speeches so starkly before is to send the message that defeense is economically beneficial. In essence, unlike a lot of other new industries. It is an area where you can send contracts to underserved parts of the UK and make the case that this is how's part of the growth agenda bit of economic nationalism in there too, a back British pledge to boost skills, innovation and productivity. that will be a line John Healey will use at the Good Growth Foundation later and just quite a lot about bringing home this industry and how good it will be for the country in terms of prosperity as well as security Just you know a couple of questions about that. The first is whether modern procurement, the technology of defense, whether homegrown is always necessarily best, right? If you look at something like Ajax, that very troubled armoured fighting vehicle That was seen as a procurement blunder, but it was one which at the time was sold very heavily on having its final assembly largely in the UK. Do doesn't essentially mean that you get aroundound the problems of procurement. And the other one is simply like if you've got all these multilater if you've got multilateral agreements on defense procurement Now your message is, o, it's all coming home. how are they going to smooth that off? So I'll be quite interested in how that goes down. So I suppose in some ways, to my, it's the this isn't the Deense investment plan speech. Interestingly, over at MOD, I hear it's getting closer. over in the Treasury, I hear it's not. This is the problem of a government without authority. It just doesn't You know, get things done I'm Right, We've got a lot of numbers this morning We're going to sort of handbraak turn back to the subject of Andy Berham because that's what they all point to. It's an incredible set of numbers, really, as good as I can imagine Headline voting intention actually went up one to seventeen. Reform on twenty five down three Tories up one on eighteen You know, labor at one on ' seventeen, really quite something O Makerfield, well, we asked the whole country who they wanted all of Great Britain who they wanted to win the Makerfield by election, putting Andy Berner's name in it And you know, remember, reform UK have a lead that I just described put Andy Burnham's name in it and reference the by election, Labour have an eight point lead, twenty nine, twenty one. And if you just look at people in the North, it's a massive lead. It's a sixteen point lead. Basically the North of England collectively want Andy Burnham to win the Makerfield by election. And for me, although it's an imprecise question, realistically, that is a very positive sign for Team Burnham and for Labor ahead of that by election I'm On twenty eight percent of labor members want Kir Starmer to take them into the next election. So again, that's kind of what Andy Burham is making an argument into And a labor members pull put Andy Burnham was the undisputed winner. He gets forty seven percent of the first choice of Labour member votes, stumber on thirty one Rayer on eight streeting on four milliband as we were saying earlier on three. same was Cooper. Mahood on one and Al Karns on zero Deep breath Whenould you do some head to head? Starmer loses to Burnham fifty nine thirty seven But Stara interesteresting would beat streeting even sixty five fifteen. And Streeting would lose to Burnham eighty ten. I suppose We end this podcast and with just a little thought for West Streeting. I mean, last week, he was the nearly guy of British politics, but if if the rubber had actually hit the road and he'd entered a contest. My goodness, if these poll figures are anything like right and you go have a good track record with labour members